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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind
Just out from TNS is the latest Scotland poll. The main GE voting figures are in the chart above and as can be seen the red team trail the nats by 10%.
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Professor John Curtice, from Strathclyde University, said: ”A lead like this rather than the 20-point one in many other recent polls would enable Labour to hang on to half of its current seats. It reminds us of just how much difference a few points either way makes to Labour and SNP prospects. That said I am not sure Labour would be that happy losing half of its seats.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/10/snp-set-to-double-its-vote-in-general-election-poll-finds?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
It would be interesting to see how unequal the swing is in different parts of Scotland.
I was pondering the UK swing (Con-Lab) the other day with the GE in mind, and had a look at the Euros, finding this:
London 10.1%
NW 9.5%
Y + H 7.9%
NE 6.8%
UK 6.7%
W Mids 6.7%
East Mids 6.1%
Wales 5.8%
SE 5.1%
East 4.8%
SW 3.7%
Scotland 2.4%
The UNS is anything but a UNS, and there is a strong illustration of where Labour is performing well, and not.
Morning all.
On Sunday, Tsipras stood before the Greek parliament to give an update on what he wanted, and where he thought the negotiations were. Having spent most of last week seeing investors and assuring them "we know that we're not going to be able to deliver on all our promises to the electorate, and it is our plan to run a permanent primary budget surplus," he seemed to spin 180 degrees, and to declare that he would meet all his promises, and to make threats about collecting second world war reparations from Germany. The temperature was raised again yesterday, when the finance minister announced that, should Greece leave the Euro, then the Euro would fall apart.
It is fair to say that at the IMF in New York, and in the corridors of Europe, SYRIZA's tactics are being met with exasperation. There was a general feeling last week that a deal was broadly in reach: with maturity extensions, a moratorium on some interest payments, coupon cuts, a reduction in the required primary surplus, and the IMF taking on the role of supervising Greece. The price for all this was - of course - continued reform. (By the way, this would be a cracking deal, reducing the effective value of Greece's outstanding debt from 170% of GDP to probably just less than 100%, in real terms.)
However, I think the latest Tsipras u-turn (which was probably made to shore up his fractious coalition - many of whom are not prepared to accept supervision under any circumstances), may well have the opposite of what he was hoping. A number countries seem to be coming to the view that the Greek government will probably just renege on its promises anyway, so why give it the deal of the century? And a number of German economists have made pointed comments along the lines of (and I'm paraphrasing here) "Greece says that the Euro would fall apart if they left. We think it will fall apart if they stay."
It is still slightly more likely Greece stays in the Euro, than it goes. The Americans are putting a lot of pressure on the Athens government behind the scenes (although I think the Russians are pulling in the opposite direction). But the probability of Grexit has increased significantly since last week.
As this blog shows the Greek government is in dicsussions with Russia:
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/02/09/greeks-to-visit-russia-wednesday-alongside-eu-debt-meeting/
The German press are also onto this:
http://www.dw.de/will-russia-bail-out-greece/a-18236395
"Greece's new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras could be headed to Moscow on May 9 to discuss a potential bailout package for his debt-ridden nation, officials in both Athens and the Kremlin signalled after a phone call between the two leaders on Thursday."
Meanwhile rumours that Russia are to have Naval and Airbases in Cyprus might explain the foreign secretarys rant:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-military-agreement-in-cyprus-2015-2?r=US
As usual the uk mainstream uk media are far back on the curve.......
The issue Russia has is that its economy is being hammered by low oil and commodity prices. The Ruble has collapsed, and all the independent collected economic indicators are pointing sharply down.
Russia - as you say - may very well decide to bring Greece inside its sphere of influence, and offer it an alternative route to the Western one. (Russia and Greece share a common Orthodox heritage, of course.)
However, it is worth remembering that the Eastern European countries that "turned West", and joined Nato and the EU have done well (the Baltic State, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, etc.), while those that stayed attached to Russia have done much less well. Russia's ability to import products from Greece, Ukraine, Kazhkstan, etc., is also very limited: even before the current economic issues, Russia's imports were only about the same size as Belgium's.
So, we shall see.
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As I said last week it will be interesting to learn what resources leading SLAB figures like Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran insist on being diverted from English marginal seats to their seats and others like them in Scotland.
Frankly the only poll worth seeing today is the ARSE and I will miss it owing to being in meetings all day.
Knowing the ineptitude of our government, they'll probably unilaterally withdraw all British forces from Cyprus in the name of saving money de-escalating tensions, thereby surrendering strategic control of the eastern Mediterranean to Putin's mafia state.
16%. Not in a by election but across an entire country. I am struggling to recall anything like it. SLAB has a long way to go to avoid serious damage.
I wonder if he can sell a deal similar to the above to his party, but not at the expense of continued privatisation, which they seem to have an allergic reaction to.
"Labour are the clear beneficiaries of this pattern of Liberal Democrat decline. This fits previous research on the pattern of vote switching at the individual level.
While more votes are clearly welcome for Labour, this particular constituency pattern is not particularly advantageous for the party. Most Liberal Democrat seats have the Conservatives in second place and it will be tough for Labour to come from third to win.
There is a danger for Labour of not winning so many seats as uniform swing would suggest if their vote gains are disproportionately concentrated in areas where the Liberal Democrats did relatively well in 2010."
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/what-the-bes-suggests-about-constituency-variation-in-party-performance-by-stephen-fisher-university-of-oxford/
@patrickwintour: Foolish of Ed Miliband not to attend British Chambers of Commerce - feeds an impression he can dispel at little ideological cost to himself.
The SNP ALWAYS always always flatter to deceive. Bet accordingly.
Until this narrowing of the lead is replicated elsewhere, I wouldn't get too excited.
What do think the public thinks will happen to our debt if we do not reduce it?
I am going to write to my mortgage company and tell them that I will not tolerate paying it after May. I wonder how I will get on
How quaint of you to expect them to stick to a budget!
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DUP's Nigel Dodds outlines priorities: protection for defence, abolition of bedroom tax, tougher border controls
"Thinking about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government's deficit, do you think this is... Necessary or Unnecessary?"
Necessary = 57%
Unnecessary = 28%
Don't know = 15%
Where the Coalition has a problem is on whether this has been done in a fair way. Then the scores are reversed, 54% unfair, 28% fair and 17% don't know. The failure of "We're all in this together" is the weak link in Coalition strategy.
You'll notice the incredibly similar growth from 2000 to 2013 for Russia, Venezuela, Kazhakstan, Brazil and Colombia.
Do you know what all those countries' economies have in common: a near total dependence on commodities.
Now, it's possible that Brazil, Kazakhstan, Colombia and Venezuela all showed growth because of commodities. While, for Russia, it was Putin.
But it's not very likely.
The UK is starting to look very isolated on the Ukraine, just us, the Balts and Poland.
Meanwhile the rebels have now completed the encirclement at Debaltsevo.
This government believes in defence cuts AND warmongering.
Rather more 'all mouth and no trousers' than 'talk softly but carry a big stick'.
In 50 years time the Russian people and state will both be richer and still actually exist, can one say the same about any Western country.
http://en.youscribe.com/catalogue/tous/germany-s-fast-hold-on-the-european-continent-2518158
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31356895
Edited extra bit: it's breaking, so there's little detail as yet.
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/will-russia-now-die/
On topic - why has Jack's ARSE changed time schedule ?
On topic - Labour still getting thrashed - hardly a cause for celebration.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#Main_trends
Anyway, it's not true that no other European people are growing:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/2013/sty-population-changes.html
Of course, Russian male life expectancy is still a barely credible 64 years. (Up from something in the 50s, not long ago.)
One of the reasons why Russian GDP per capita did so well, of course, is because alcoholism killed people in their early 60s. As health initiatives begin to work, Russia's pensions bill will rise sharply.
It was sampled according to The Herald between 14 JANUARY and 2 February. This is a contrast with the YouGov record lead of 21 per cent for the SNP which was sampled between 29 JANUARY and 2 February. Alternatively it could be compared with some of the more recent Ashcroft constituency polling for example Dundee West showing extraordinary swings and sampled between 23-30th January. Therefore it is impossible to suggest that this TNS poll represents anything other than a different means of sampling. An earlier poll than the exisiting evidence cannot be sited as a trend not more than it can in the absence of any TNS comparison.
The anxiety to play down the extent of the political earthquake taking place in Scotland or pounce on any scrap of evidence to try and deny it is one of the more puzzling things about this site. The last time was the Panelbase survey of early January also showing an SNP lead of "only" 10 per cent. That did not turn out well for those hoping to see the green shoots of a Labour revivial!
"This period has also seen an increasing number of births, driven by both the immigration of women of childbearing age (15-44) and rising fertility among UK-born women."
Goodbye PM, Hello Junta.
Russia will find it extremely hard to grow their number of births in the coming 10 years, simply because the number of women of childbearing age is about to shrink dramatically. There are almost exactly twice as many women in their early 20s as there are in their early teens.
In response to my advocating the Labour accept this election is probably lost and they needed to shift major resources to save SLAB. Something I originally wrote soon after the SNP surge in 2014. But time is running out for any shift to have much effect.
Labour's strategic error has been to overlook the SNP. Going for 35% required them to hold Scotland.
Separating the two punishments in this way would presumably enable judges to remove voting rights from people who are not given custodial sentences, which might be appropriate for people guilty of electoral fraud offences.
Weird monomania with the 'crime' of 'multiple screen names'.
WHO CARES?
Edit: I spammed with self-awareness I'll have you know.
If this does happen I expect several more defections to UKIP at the end of the year. Perhaps the threat of that might be enough to reign Osborne in, but perhaps not.
P.$. It wasn't the fact you used multiple screen names that people take issue with. It's the fact that you blatantly lied about it.
Not quite so negative, generally, as you regarding the blues, but their Defence approach is severely lacking. I share your view that Labour would be (and were) even worse.
My 150/1 tip Cannock chase in there too
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
10/02/2015 09:40
According to this leaked list the Cons are NOT targeting Rochester & Strood or Boston & Skegness, 2 top Ukip targets bit.ly/1zrNreP
If a UK party did a Syriza and came up with a policy that we would not pay any of our debts and there would be mass public spending they would get millions of votes despite the lunacy of the policy.
The question is to what extent we should remain militarised to the extent that we are. Why is Britain expected to do proportionately more than most countries?
"Do you still have your shares in Barclays Roger?"
A wheelbarrow full. You can't get everything right
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