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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you live in the marginals expect US style political attack ads appearing in your youtube feed
[The] Tories Bring US-Style Political Attack Adverts To The UK In Time For The Election. Paid-for political advertising on TV and radio has always been banned in the UK. But there’s no such restriction on using YouTube, and BuzzFeed News understands the Conservatives are already spending the money.
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First and Best.
So, Islamists gather at the Cenotaph in London to demand the end of Free Speech. A clear expression of their desire NOT to integrate.
I hate these little updates (assuming that's what it is).
A betting conundrum
........
If Lord Ashcroft had polled Ross, Skye, Lochaber then the probability is that Charlie Kennedy would be behind on both questions. That is almost certain.
Lord Ashcroft's polls were better for the SNP, but had a high correlation to http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and where we have peaked inside the box (In Danny's seat) he is now out to 9-2 (One could argue he should be much longer based off the Ashcroft poll)
Where we haven't looked inside in Ross, Skye, Lochaber Charlie Kennedy is 1-3 on still.
Forget the fact he has a much bigger majority, the Ashcroft poll would have shown him a mile behind.
If Charlie's seat had been polled, the SNP would now be favourites in the seat. And people would have LUMPED on the SNP the night of the poll in Ross, Skye, Lochaber.
But I am guessing that both Danny and Charlie are doing considerably better when they are named as the Highlands of Scotland apparently "Vote for the man" - I have no idea if that's true or not, but it simply must be or Charlie Kennedy's price would be far worse. But where we've peaked inside Danny's seat the effect has sort of taken place....
In my opinion:
Backing Lib Dems in Danny's seat @ 9-2 and Backing SNP in Charlie's seat @ 2-1 is the correct course of action.
If you have no position already...
I'm already in on these seats with good positions, so won't be following my own advice here but it's an interesting thought experiment nonetheless.
'Tory council leader accused over “racist, sexist and pornographic” emails quits, faces expulsion' http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Conservative-councillor-face-expulsion-racist/story-25986718-detail/story.html …
It depends? Done well, it can be useful.
Unfortunately internet gurus are like economists, they can tell you exactly how things work, then afterwards tell you why it didn't.
And?
Exclusive: MP and Home Office failed to act on Rotherham grooming 11 years ago - Yorkshire Post http://m.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/exclusive-mp-and-home-office-failed-to-act-on-rotherham-grooming-11-years-ago-1-6913834 …
The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, tells the BBC that Greece will have to leave the eurozone. http://bbc.in/1AJp42G
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29255449
The Greens with their crowd funding to raise money for candidates, UKIP with their relentless spamming of newspaper comment sections and the SNP hammering social media to build up support and enthusiasm amongst their supporters,
None of these things cost the parties any money, it has been a great leveller.
One placard reads: "Insult my mum and I will punch you "Pope Francis)".
Good work, Francis, you arse.
We'd still have these knuckle-dragging nutcases, but the Pope shouldn't be singing from the same hymn sheet.
And we must take care not to rely too much on single constituency polls. Samples of one may be outliers or may be correct. We can't be sure.
Of course the Ashcroft poll did not name "Danny Alexander" and would not have named "Charlie Kennedy"....
http://www.whfp.com/2015/01/20/ian-blackford-selected-as-snp-candidate-for-ross-skye-and-lochaber/
"Mr Blackford, from Glendale on Skye, will challenge long-standing LibDem MP Charles Kennedy for the seat at the general election on 7th May and has called on both Yes and No voters to come together to hold Westminter to account. He has twice before run as a parliamentary candidate and served as the national treasurer for the SNP. He was a member of the shadow cabinet with responsibility for social security and pensions, and is chair of the SNP Currency Commission."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Blackford
In fact when it comes to forwarding on emails, its only old people who still do it.
Crosby has also been running private polls in marginal seats since the start of the year that apparently suggest the Conservatives will do better than previous surveys have suggested.
Indeed, many MPs in those seats are finding a better reception on the doorstep than they’d expected and some who were looking for jobs outside parliament now think they have a chance of holding on after all.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/08/labour-needs-good-slogan-needs-it-now
SMART MOVES
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2943672/Mandelson-Miliband-good-PM.html
"Can you expand on that, genuinely interested. Whilst the start of a YouTube clip is not necessarily the natural moment to engage someone in a political issue, I can imagine ads referencing a specific local hospital (etc) being relatively powerful"
A political ad isn't something anyone is at first sight interested in so to run a successful political ad you need a captive audience which you get in a commercial break on TV but you don't get on youtube. They'd be better spending the money on direct mail. At least there's a chance someone might be take the leaflet into the toilet with them.
Campaigns are not about trying to persuade people who will never vote for you (i.e. those who remain convinced that the Tories are so much the nasty party they will never vote for them), rather, they are about getting out as many of the party's core as possible (which Romney failed to do by 1 million votes) and winning the swing voter battle. It is among the swing voters that you may find some who will be scared enough by the attack ads to hold their noses and vote Tory.
On balance, I'd say the Tories are wise to give it a try, given that the current polls are hardly encouraging for them.
Major mistake, this is not a presidential election and MP's do not have the same authority or blame as US Governors.
Have you finished your homework and tidied your room
He is the only LD that has respect in scotland.
For every Willie Horton attack ad there is a Face attack ad.
A perfect Ed Miliband defence line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PikszBkfTHM
Anthony Wells has updated UKPR swingometer to take account of the SNP surge
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
Here's a well known one which John West had to spend hardly anything on.....I struggle to think what the Tories could come up with
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FARnbRBWKGg
I wrote a big piece yesterday. My basic view is that an agreement between Tsipras and the troika has largely been reached now. Tsipras has agreed to (1) IMF (not troika) oversight; (2) to continue the reform and privatisation programme; and (3) to run a "permanent" primary budget surplus of 1.5-2%. In return for which, most of the bonds will have a maturity extension, some of the bonds will have an interest holiday, and some will have an interest rate variable with Greek GDP.
However, I don't believe that Tsipras will be able to deliver his party. Therefore it will either (a) get through thanks to ND/Potemi/PASOK + half of SYRIZA, or (b) result in new elections.
We'll see.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3rD8fUmbRA
This mix of Jilted John's One Hit Wonder to Gordon Brown's record, still makes me smile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NEJvnz6Wn8
First Tristram attacks the nuns, he'll be joining the Orange Order next.
Nigel Dodds Deputy PM nailed on.
Mr. 1000, cheers. Wasn't on much yesterday so I didn't see that.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz_V4lRdtjo
Have the new Greek anti EU govt been elected on a false prospectus then?
What's a 'youtube feed' and where can i get one...?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/tony-abbott-faces-spill-motion-in-liberal-party-room/6078660
It comes as a Newspoll out today gives Labor a huge 57-43 lead over Abbott's Coalition on preferences, with Abbott on a 24% satisfaction, 68% dissatisfied rating, as bad as Gillard's nadir in September 2011http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/08/newspoll-57-43-to-labor/
I'm then naturally drawn to the Conservatives as the "English" party, and the emotional affinity that engenders is almost strong enough to override my default preference for UKIP.
That and the commodities boom that has turned into bust will ensure an ALP win in Australia. However the ALP leader is the mercurial Bill Shorten and his party boses played a big role in the collapse of the ALP during the Gillard period, so probably they will win the next election simply because voters want to get rid of the NLP, so the ALP might be out in the 2019 election.
Australia probably will have 6 (or more)different Prime Ministers this decade.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564397207026425856
Despite the almost daily requests I receive from CCHQ for more, the Conservative Party is totally awash with cash. And they piss most of it up the wall.
The Conservatives are never more like Labour in their attitude to spending other peoples money than when trying to guarantee re-election with the funds of their donors.
It's interesting that Labour, Lib Dems and the Conservatives are all claiming their private polling is showing that their incumbent MPs are doing better than claimed, rather than that they're going to gain more than expected. Naming their candidate in their polls could well be the reason they're all doing better at holding than Ashcroft polls suggest.
OAPs are not only not on youtube, twitter or facebook, they scarcely know what it is.
I can only assume CCHQ is staffed with young-20somethings who are dogmatic believers in the power of the digital age and think the election will be won on those mediums.
They have to do a bit of it because all other parties are doing it. They also might get some leakage of those messages into the national news. But, as Roger says, commercial TV breaks (if allowed) and targeted direct mail would be the smarter choices.
I think prominent giant billboards still have a place too.
Why Sherwood in particular? Just curious.
I think the carefully-worded polling claim is likely to be accurate - the national lead has shrunk since the earlier constituency surveys, so I'd expect the local leads to have done the same. That's one reason why I think we're currently 7% ahead rather than 12%, and it's been like that since late autumn after UKIP had a nibble at us.
Latest canvassing pic:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=405837012911869&set=pcb.901240623273153&type=1&theater
The Tories are out too - spot the ground war difference:
https://bramcotetoday.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/ba3.jpg
"What's more they won't need to spend a lot of money, when I was at PlayStation we used to spend literally peanuts for blanket coverage on gaming channels on YouTube."
The difficulty is getting an audience interested enough to watch. Playstation on a gaming channel is a million miles away from a political ad when people have logged on for something completely different.
If and a big 'if' they could come up with a meme that might catch on (for instance the Downfall spoofs) then they might have a chance but I think the dangers of not getting the tone right would be a risk and the danger of ridicule if they got it wrong would make them play safe
Mind you, in the current gen (bah, too poor to afford the new machines) PS4 is still slaughtering the Xbone. Although cutting the price, and the Kinect, and the always-online idiocy has seen the Xbox One recover somewhat.
Is it me, or has the cross-over for this generation shift been really long? Got a PS3 and it still feels like most games are coming out for it.
2) Labour leads since August:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564397780618477568
I'm not just trying to be rude, what I'm saying is, any promotional tool should be judged on its results, not on the coverage/buzz/attention that it received.
http://www.conormcginn.co.uk
He works forShadow Defence Secretary Vernon Coaker. He has beaten the St Helens council leader (who also worked for Woodward) and another local Cllr (who is the constituency office manager of the retiring MP).
If he is right then the Tories strategy may be wise. There are a lot of silver surfers, and not just on PB.
The difficulty is that any internet ads are very prone to spoofs, which can go viral.
The new consoles are not worth owning yet, but Bloodborne is out next month and is absolutely brilliant. I had a long hands on at a friend's place a week ago and it is easily the best game of the current gen. Can't wait to play it.