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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012
Those people who bet on "other" with Hills on this market in July 2012 must now be looking forward to a big payout. pic.twitter.com/N1DQaTFref
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Now look up what "coalition" and "government" mean.
Ain't gonna happen...
An administration composed of members from only one party, whilst having <326 seats would be "other" in my view.
Or am I being overly simplistic.......
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/timber-great-snp-price-crash.html
Surprising English victory yesterday.
"If you believe free speech is hilarious, Vote Labour.
If you believe in free speech, whether agreeable or not, vote UKIP."
twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/563795899139493888
twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/563679987891720192
Labour run Welsh rugby is a disaster.
Or something like that.
@paulwaugh: Idea of Mandelson *just* chinwagging about Hull with AJ is as probable as @tom_watson *just* watching PostmanMan with GBrown in '06. Discuss
@schofieldkevin: Mmmm ... who to believe - Peter Mandelson or George Parker. Toughie ....
At least they are united. No factional infighting...
@iainmartin1: "@charliewhelan: Last person on this planet that @Ed_Miliband needs fighting his corner on @BBCr4today is Mandelson" Just like the old days
One problem the SNP have, is the proverbial chickens coming home to roost from Salmond's leadership. From sending armed police out to minor incidents, to closing local courts without enlarging the central ones, illegal stop and search of children at 4 times the rate of London, to the latest beaut idea coming on stream:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/named-person-proposals-will-make-real-difference-1-3682671
Check out the comments and see all the different points. Too many relevant to make here. Really is scary.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11396803/Half-of-EU-voters-back-David-Camerons-bid-to-reform-Brussels-poll-finds.html
David Cameron's bid to force major reforms in Brussels has won the backing of half of voters in Europe’s biggest economies, a poll has found.
An extensive survey of people in countries including Germany and France by pollsters ComRes found that voters are increasingly concerned about the EU and are demanding change.
poll found that a majority of people in France (58 per cent) believe the EU should be reformed, as do around half in the UK (49 per cent), the Netherlands (49 per cent) and Germany (46 per cent).
And thanks Graham Sharpe. Racing fans will know the name well. He has a fine reputation and this is just what I would expect of him.
It's still odds against us collecting, of course, but fairly short odds, not the eights or better many on here were able to obtain.
"One problem the SNP have, is the proverbial chickens coming home to roost from Salmond's leadership. From sending armed police out to minor incidents, to closing local courts without enlarging the central ones,"
I was in Scotland last week and those I was with just didn't believe the polling. Too many scratching their heads for it just to be hope. I wouldn't yet bet the house on an a wipeout
Edit: Or should I say they appear in the newspapers upon those days. We often get to hear about the result the evening beforehand.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25949029
Labour finished 48 seats behind the tories. With them set to lose 30 seats to the Nats, they need to win the 30 most marginal Lab-tory, tory held seats just to tread water. Here, in order of marginality, they are. All the comments are my own.
Warwickshire North. Gained by Dan Byles with a majority of 54. Previously labour held since 1987 when Frances Maude lost his seat (lol). Byles is apparently not standing in 2015 and former MP O'Brien is. Main settlements are Atherstone, Bedworth, Coleshill and Polesworth. Smallish Market towns, however now since West Coast Main Line upgrade attracting London Commuters as well as Birmingham commuters. If Labour do not win this seat they might as well pack up and go home but with increasing numbers of "tory" voters moving from large cities to semi rural towns might be more typical of similar areas further south.
Thurrock Essex, UKIP Central. If anyone defeats the tories it will be Farage
Hendon. Won by tories in 2010. Tory MP Matthew Offord standing again and may get incumbency bonus. Comprises Burnt Oak, Colindale, Edgware, Hale, Hendon, Mill Hill, West Hendon. Strong tory vote in many of these in 2014 council elections. Milibands stance on Palestine Question has not exactly endeared him to the large Jewish minority and his atheism won't go down well with the orthodox element. Good indicator of tory win if Torys hold.
Cardiff North.Northern Suburbs of Cardiff. Gained by tories for first time since 1992 election in 2010. Neither tory or labour 2010 candidate standing this time. Milibands to Lose but the dissatisfaction with the devolved Welsh Labour government (eg NHS Wales) may make a harder win than it looks.
Sherwood. Main settlement Hucknall. Labour 1992-2010. Looks an obvious Labour Nailed on in Notts Mining Territory, but as with North Warks increasingly a commuter area with reopened railway and trams to Nottingham. Possible incumbency vote for tory MP
CONTINUED
Stockton South. Won by James Wharton on 250ish majority. Lab 1992-2010. Wharton Standing again and may benefit from incumbency. Stockton-on-Tees, Thornaby-on-Tees, Yarm, Ingleby Barwick and Eaglescliffe. Again with demise of heavy industry and increasing commuting into large cities growing in the north this is becoming commuter territory. New statesman article in November 2014 "Why is Labour Losing to the Tories in Ultra Marginal Stockton http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/why-labour-losing-tories-ultra-marginal-stockton-south
Broxtowe - Labour Seem very organised here. Tory MP not always in the press for the right reasons (e.g. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2645720/Another-goal-Tories-The-minister-says-constituents-racist.html). Nick Palmer standing again and has a very good chance of winning. In the longer term though, especially with tram extension into the area, becoming Nottingham commuter territory.
Lancaster and Fleetwood. With the continuing decline of coastal resorts such as Blackpool, Labour likely to do well here and Eric Ollerenshaw has an unenviable task to retain his seat. If Labour don't win this they might as well give up.
Amber Valley - Alfreton, Langley Mill, Swanwick etc, Another one becoming commuter/dormitory territory for Leicester, Derby and Nottingham, and even London for a few brave souls. Nigel Mills standing again. May be much harder for Labour to win than it looks. Would have helped him though if Ilkeston Station reopening had not been delayed.
Waveney. Lowestoft in English. Another one that Labour have no chance and only UKIP will defeat tories here.
Wolverhampton South West. Enochland (he was former MP although boundaries since changed) Mixture of inner city deprived wards with large asian origin population and tory voting suburbs. Another one where UKIP may cause trouble for both Labour and Tory.
Morecambe and Lunesdale. Struggling north west coastal area with resorts and ferry services (Heysham) in Long term decline thanks to budget flights. Probable Labour gain.
Carlisle - Border Citadel. To what exent will scottish schenanigans dent Labours chances?
CONTINUED
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
SNP 45%, Lab 32%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland
I put a couple of tenners on Other a few weeks ago, so nice to know it's not going up in smoke. But no Conservative-UKIP government listed, I am amazed.
Stroud-1500 tory majority last time. Another one thats becoming commuter territory for Bristol, Swindon and Gloucester. Torys really ought to win this if Cameron wants to remain PM
Weaver Vale- Northwich and Frodsham in English. Another one thats becoming Northern commuter territory to Manchester & Liverpool
Lincoln - 1,000 tory majority last time. City consituency which Labour ought to win, but UKIP quite strong in lincs and polled over 1,000 votes in 2010 here.
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport. South west is difficult territory for Labour. Not helped by their pooh pooing reopening of the Railway line to Exeter via Okehampton and support for the ludicrously expensive alternative of a Dawlish diversion. Much of Devonport is being handed back by the MoD and redeveloped into expensive housing which may help tories.
Dewsbury - Things a bit polarised here. BNP got over 3,000 votes in 2,010. Winner likely to be the party that loses less of their voters to UKIP, assuming UKIP don't actually win it.
Warrington South. South of Warrington and Runcorn. Another one becoming in some ways a dormitory town for Liverpool so may be harder for Labour than it looks
Bedford. Tories won in 2010 with 1,500 majority. The politics of Bedford are intriguing and complicated with both inner city areas and increasing numbers of people moving from London to the ever growing estates on the edge of town to Commute on Thameslink. OGH land. Labour probably favourites if they can hoover up the Libdems 9,000 in 2010.
Brighton Kemptown - Mixture of gay capital of UK and Conservative fringes like Rottingdean. Probable Labour win as they are the obvious local (council) alternative to the unpopular Green council
Pudsey - Commuter land to north west of Leeds. Another one that will depend on who loses their vote to UKIP
CONTINUED
Corby - Now labour held after Byelection. However known as Scotland (Detached) and SNP would probably stand a good chance here if they stood and Labour vote may well be affected by their travails in Scotland. Could be a shock Tory win.
Brentford and Isleworth - Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious
Hove -Traditionally the posh end of Brighton but more cosmopolitan, in a well heeled way, these days. Labour may struggle to overturn the near 2,000 tory majority due to the Yoghurt Kitters voting Green
Enfield North - London Fringe including Green Belt. Torys ought to retain if they want any chance of a majority. former Labour MP Joan Ryan having another go, but with her Majority never higher than 2,291 after 2001 she may struggle./
Hastings and Rye - Declining coastal resort, although hinterland and Rye more prosperous. Again, increasing long distance commuting with Ashford International only 35 Minutes from St Pancras on HS1. Labour only managed 2,500 majority in 1997 will not be as easy as the 2,000 majority looks to overturn.
Ipswich - Another one with increasing commuting. Labour ought to overturn the 2,000 majority in Suffolks capital if they are serious though. UKIP influence though.
Halesowen and Rowley Regis - Black Country small towns (Blackheath, Cradley Heath, Halesowen). Again commuting into Brum and UKIP got nearly 3,000 votes in 2010. Tory majority of over 2,000 won't be particularly easy to overturn.
Nuneaton - Prosperous but small c conservvative market town that has semi absorbed nearby villages such as Attleborough and Bulkwell. Only an Hour for London Euston for the incrasing number of commuters that can afford the season ticket. Incumbent MP Marcus Jones ought to be building on his 2,000 majority. North London Labour wont' resonate here.
Continued
@BethRigby: Business attacks Labour’s worker buyout plan: http://t.co/kCNAKmcZMC #FT > another day, another point of tension
The Offensive Behaviour at Football Act got exactly the same short shrift from Loyalists expecting it to alienate the public. But it has 89% public support today.
The idea that we don't know what is going on is quite farcical. Perhaps the Loyalists problems is that they are looking for "one big reason". It's not one big reason, its lots and lots of small to medium reasons and none of it is giong away any time soon.
Fergus Walsh @BBCFergusWalsh 5m5 minutes ago
Keep daffodils away from fruit & veg supermarkets warned, in case people mistake them for food http://bbc.in/1zhoT8j
What do they think they are: Onions? Health and safety are going potty!
The thing I had no idea about until I looked at this was how many of those seats are on the semi rural hinterland of, particularly midlands and northern cities, where traditional industries meant that until the 1990’s commuting was rare.
Increasingly relatively well off people from the cities are moving to these areas and commuting, reflecting what has happened in the southern Home Counties since the 1930s to the immense benefit of the Tories there.
This largely unnoticed demographic change (largely unnoticed unless you get the commuter trains in the north which are short, uncomfortable and jammed solid as train provision has not caught up yet with the vastly increased demand) will make it harder for Labour to win these seats than many people realise
END
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31169882
"Scottish Labour has said it will ensure at least half of the board members of public bodies in Scotland are women if it wins the next election."
So, less than half a board being female is bad... but less than half a board being male is acceptable?
And that's without the patronising of women and discrimination against men inherent in politically correct quotas.
What will Ed do if Monaco tells him to do one?
Send in the gunboats to give then a whiff of grapeshot? That's all those fuzzie-wuzzies understand, Mr Mainwaring.
Even energy, for which he was the Cabinet minister, is far beyond him. The price freeze was, is, ever shall be the policy of an empty-headed lunatic communist.
Thanks for the polling info.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31175166
Edited extra bit: Mr. Root, aspiration is a crime of capitalism that Chairman Miliband will not accept!
Fifteen business leaders who endorsed Tony Blair’s Labour party before the 2005 election have moved to distance themselves from Ed Miliband, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.. The news demonstrates starkly how some of the businessmen courted by Labour leader Tony Blair in the last decade appear to have fallen out of love with the Labour party. The Labour leader was widely criticised this week for attacking the tax status of the head of high street chemist Boots for saying that Mr Miliband would be a "catastrophe" for Britain.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11396969/Fifteen-of-Tony-Blairs-business-backers-go-cool-on-Ed-Miliband.html
But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.
Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
Mr. Roger, Miliband's a creature of envy and spite, who doesn't have the first inkling of understanding how a market works.
I don't know whether that matters. I did a will a few days ago and i'm now over 30% richer than I was five years ago. I don't think the government is responsible but it's obvious that most people are not better off than they were five years ago let alone over 30% better off. I don't see it as envy and spite that a government should try to level the playing field.
Yes, I should know this by now but somehow I still manage to get caught out by the dates.
"Don't forget to order your affairs so that your estate unlike the masses pays less tax by avoidance.. Ask Millionaire Ed, he knows how to save zillions... one rule for the plebs but not for ED."
I don't want to get personal but I have never done anything to avoid tax despite being advised to the contrary and never would. Though I do a lot of work abroad I've always paid tax in the UK.
Labour run Welsh rugby is a disaster.
Congrats to England who totally monstered Wales in the second half.
Actually the point about that Labour run Wales might be better than you think. If it wasn;'t run by Labour some money might go there. And some new people.
Who knows, in time it might get some dynamic private industry.
You can see it in Gatland's eyes. If Wales wants a better team, it first needs to be a better country.
He agrees with Joke-W that Ed-is-crap. Indeed he thinks that wee Ed Milli-[MODERATED] has about the same chance of becoming PM as has BenM becoming Chancellor-of-the-Exchequer....
"30% up. Tax avoidance obviously paying off for you then."
I own more than one property and have money on the stock market. Unless I sell no one's charging me tax on it. In most countries in Europe they have wealth taxes.
The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that, in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead, Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour:
In Thanet South, rather than a five-point Conservative lead, the poll should have shown a very tight race with UKIP’s Nigel Farage:
Conservatives 33 per cent, UKIP 32 per cent, Labour 26 per cent, LibDems 4 per cent, Greens 3 per cent.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-and-thanet-south.html
Another day, another report on Rotherham, and.......it about the politics of running Rotherham council ...and.....no mention of the L word...it is quite an achievement to keep writing 1000's of words on a massive scandal and never mention the party who are in charge. Same as when talking about who is running the NHS in Wales, it is some unknown groups of people, who belong to some unnamed party.
And of course, we all know if it was the Tores or UKIP involved it be the same right?
That and Sheffield Hallam.
I'd be interested if Ashcroft could do a poll in Thanet North. I'm starting to wonder if UKIP will get more seats for its votes than expected.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-31189050
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/17/where-the-next-election-will-be-decided/