Any value in Poplar & Limehouse if "Tower Hamlets First" stand? The Tories are at 20/1 and the area is gentrifying in places. Not sure 20/1 is quite big enough though.
Last time round when George Galloway stood in this constituency, the Conservatives went below 3/1 if I recall correctly. This area is gentrifying very fast. It may make a good trading bet. I'm still doubtful that it's a winner.
ISIS claim to have "burned alive" Jordanian pilot...
The video is apparently released already. I'm not looking, let alone linking.
Just broken across the media. Truly evil creatures.
Incredibly, the stories I am hearing (from reliable sources) of what ISIS plan to do to soldiers/police in the UK/France would make this killing look positively moderate.
Boris is right. This is all one great, big, vile wank. Isis are sexual deviants gizzing as they kill. And needing to kill in ever more repulsive ways in order to get to climax.
It is from the dark ages but with social media to comms it. Repulsive.
"Lutfur Rahman’s Allies Are Considering Running For Parliament
Candidates associated with the controversial Tower Hamlets mayor could stand against Labour under the Tower Hamlets First banner in the upcoming general election":
It was always going to be a matter of time before an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our population starts being an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our politics. And, on the current course, both things will increase with time.
Has a day gone by Socrates when you haven't posted something about Muslims on PB? Methinks you are a little obsessed.
It's quite different from whether it's the substantive and far-reaching reform that Britain would really need to convince me it had a sustainable long-term relationship with the EU.
And if the reform doesnt satisfy you then you can vote no.
The position of UKIPers is essentially that people like you are too weak-minded to see through the Cameroon's ploys and will essentially be tricked into voting for membership of a reformed EU that they dont really support. They describe this as the "intellectually honest" position.
No, it's not. The "reformed EU" won't be voted on because the renegotiation won't have finished by the time there's a vote. Richard Nabavi admitted this downthread.
Yes, yes - and then people will vote to stay in and then Cameron will conspire to have the changes whipped away afterwards and the helpless voters will be stuck in an EU they didnt want to be part of. Your claims of superior intellectual honesty are startling.
No, what will happen is that the Tories will walk in and say "We want A, B, C, D, E and F in that order". The Germans will say "Well, we'll give you half of D, and a quarter of E". The French or the Romanians or someone else will say behind the scenes "we're not willing to give away half of D, but we will keep quiet about it for now" and the Tories will be perfectly aware of that but acquiesce to the deal, knowing there's a question mark over D.
Then the Tories will come back and say "We've achieved D and E! This transforms the EU!" We have a referendum and vote to stay in. Then the French block the half of D and only the quarter of E passes.
Eurosceptics will say "We bloody told you so! Let's have another referendum!" And David Cameron will say "No, this is a minor thing. We still have E and that proves we can achieve reform in the EU. We now have a mandate for staying in after the public made their intentions clear. We can't have endless referendums - we will now focus on continuing to change the EU from within."
Why are you so worried?
In May 2015 you're going to end up with a Labour government and no referendum at all.
A post peak Kipper world isn't looking like a happy place - even if they get their referendum block from Ed.
They will be happy. I can see some kippers voting labour if it keeps a tory out. They clearly do not want a referendum and come up with ever more extreme reasons for not believing in one.
Re "red lines", isn't all negotiation a series of pluses and minuses?
So, for example, Cameron might score:
CAP opt-out, 5 points Change to benefits rules, 5 points Points system, 3 points Exit from EHCR binding, 4 points
(These are made up, obviously...)
etc.
Achieving 12 points might be interesting. But none of the individual items are 'red lines'.
(I make this up solely as an example of how I would address any negotiation. And I wouldn't let anyone know how I rank my points, as why would I tip my hand?)
ISIS claim to have "burned alive" Jordanian pilot...
The video is apparently released already. I'm not looking, let alone linking.
Just broken across the media. Truly evil creatures.
Incredibly, the stories I am hearing (from reliable sources) of what ISIS plan to do to soldiers/police in the UK/France would make this killing look positively moderate.
Boris is right. This is all one great, big, vile wank. Isis are sexual deviants gizzing as they kill. And needing to kill in ever more repulsive ways in order to get to climax.
The trouble is they have the capacity and the intent and the capability to do almost anything.
Combine the worst form of murder, in the most horrible way, including women and children, and then multiply it by the internet and live broadcast video, and you are somewhere close to what ISIS are, allegedly, planning for western Europe.
If they succeed the reaction will be race war, or something very close to it. Certainly we will see the suspension of normal civil order and human rights.
I fear you are right. However, you can also bet your bottom dollar that at the moment ISIS is being infiltrated from a variety of places and that a lot is being learned about its operations, its key personnel and its plans. In the end, it will be defeated. The question is at what cost.
ISIS claim to have "burned alive" Jordanian pilot...
The video is apparently released already. I'm not looking, let alone linking.
Just broken across the media. Truly evil creatures.
Incredibly, the stories I am hearing (from reliable sources) of what ISIS plan to do to soldiers/police in the UK/France would make this killing look positively moderate.
Boris is right. This is all one great, big, vile wank. Isis are sexual deviants gizzing as they kill. And needing to kill in ever more repulsive ways in order to get to climax.
Indeed. They have weird sexual fetishes because they could never get laid. They probably like to be spanked too.
WTF Labour's GE 2015 Strategy. Now I know that Labour have a lot of no go areas where they cannot talk about many issues, but LGBT bullying is hardly at the top of voters interest.
"Labour plan to tackle bullying with ban on children calling each other 'gay' and sex education lessons from age five"
I'm glad I'm not a child today. The use of the word 'gay' as slang for 'a bit crap/annoying' was universally common amongst my classmates in the 80s and 90s - nothing homophobic was meant by it in the slightest.
I can understand how tangentially, in some Freudian context, that might lead in some to a subconscious link being instinctively drawn between negativity and homosexuality but, really, that's pretty desperate. Attitudes were not linked to its use and the word doesn't need to be policed. It's just kids being kids.
The nasty ones (very very few) who really were homophobic in this context used words like 'pansy', 'poofter' and 'faggot' which were, are, and remain very different.
Incidentally, my friends in this context did (and still do) include two socialists, both solid lefties, a Lib Dem member and a fervent Green. All were (and are) very pro gay rights.
I have lots of gay friends. They've said the insults have become so boring
Good advice from Mike but I do worry about this Lord Ashcroft emphasis. I really hope people aren't going to get their fingers badly burnt. Anyone else share my unease?
If you don't believe in Ashcroft you should have the house down on the Conservatives in Sutton & Cheam.
I don't know, does that follow? I'm sort of at the position of treating his constituency and regional polls a bit like one of Lawro's guests.
Whilst Mike is big on the idea that we don't vote for PM or national parties, a position that's partly right and mostly wrong, I think we disregard the established national pollsters at our peril. That's from a betting POV regardless of what they show for my team.
The reason why there is an Ashcroft emphasis is because of the sheer scale of what he is doing. We have never had anything like this in the UK and it adds a whole new dimension to analysis of this election.
I regard constituency polls, especially where there've been follow-ups showing same broad picture, as very good pointers and certainly a good guide for betting.
All we get from you is whining. Come on. If you have detailed criticisms of the Ashcroft seat polling then let's have a discussion.
I've told @Audreyanne where the value is if she doesn't believe the Ashcroft polling, huge value backing against the Lib Dems in places like Southport, Sutton & Cheam, Eastleigh.
If it doesn't need ratification elsewhere then it's not a Treaty change and you will argue that it's not protected.
Ratification can still happen elsewhere if we have agreement from the people that need to ratify it that it will be ratified. Or it can be ratified before the end of 2017.
And our referendum would be conditional. A popular mandate for staying in a reformed EU by implication means that if the reforms don't go through in a substantially similar format then there is no mandate. I'd expect that will be made explicit in any enabling legislation.
I will bet you £50 at evens that, if there is a renegotiation, there is no explicit conditionality written into the referendum legislation.
I only bet for fun and I suspect you wouldn't be much fun to bet with.
Sozz.
What are you talking about? I'm one of the most irritating critics of your party and your leader on here! If you beat me, you get to take my hard earned money and bring it up again and again about how wrong I was for a good six months. That's loads of fun!
Nah, you're just irritating. ;-)
The problem is that £50 isn't worth the hassle.
I thought you were betting for fun, not money?
£50 I don't care about.
A case of wine, lunch or a beer is fun.
If I'm looking at a financial return anything less than about £20-25K just isn't worth the time. So I don't bet, I'd rather invest instead.
Yeah, I know what it's like Charles.
Yesterday I was umm-ing and arr-ing over whether to deposit £50 into my paddypower account to take advantage of a 48p arb.
Any value in Poplar & Limehouse if "Tower Hamlets First" stand? The Tories are at 20/1 and the area is gentrifying in places. Not sure 20/1 is quite big enough though.
Last time round when George Galloway stood in this constituency, the Conservatives went below 3/1 if I recall correctly. This area is gentrifying very fast. It may make a good trading bet. I'm still doubtful that it's a winner.
Yes, Labour are already 13% ahead of the Tories with Respect having picked up 17.5% last time (and the LD 11%). It would be a big ask for the Tories but a 3-way split is just about possible. It rather depends on what the makeup of Jim Fitzpatrick's 40% was.
@JGForsyth: Ukip’s agriculture spokesman’s explanation of the motives behind its new policy on on-stun slaughter is jaw-dropping http://t.co/1qmx7DHNEI
ISIS claim to have "burned alive" Jordanian pilot...
The video is apparently released already. I'm not looking, let alone linking.
Just broken across the media. Truly evil creatures.
Incredibly, the stories I am hearing (from reliable sources) of what ISIS plan to do to soldiers/police in the UK/France would make this killing look positively moderate.
Boris is right. This is all one great, big, vile wank. Isis are sexual deviants gizzing as they kill. And needing to kill in ever more repulsive ways in order to get to climax.
I'm stunned to be completely in agreement with you. To restore my equilibrium however, it makes me even more frightened at the prospect of a Miliband led UK government responding to this sort of challenge.
You can't ignore Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling. With all the flaws inherent in polling of any type, magnified by the special difficulties of polling in individual constituencies, there are any number of risks of individual or systemic biases that we won't be able to identify until after the event.
But they remain by far and away the most direct evidence that we possess of the current state of play of the parties in each individual constituency polled. They have to be factored into the constituency betting.
If it doesn't need ratification elsewhere then it's not a Treaty change and you will argue that it's not protected.
Ratification can still happen elsewhere if we have agreement from the people that need to ratify it that it will be ratified. Or it can be ratified before the end of 2017.
And our referendum would be conditional. A popular mandate for staying in a reformed EU by implication means that if the reforms don't go through in a substantially similar format then there is no mandate. I'd expect that will be made explicit in any enabling legislation.
I will bet you £50 at evens that, if there is a renegotiation, there is no explicit conditionality written into the referendum legislation.
I only bet for fun and I suspect you wouldn't be much fun to bet with.
Sozz.
What are you talking about? I'm one of the most irritating critics of your party and your leader on here! If you beat me, you get to take my hard earned money and bring it up again and again about how wrong I was for a good six months. That's loads of fun!
Nah, you're just irritating. ;-)
The problem is that £50 isn't worth the hassle.
I thought you were betting for fun, not money?
£50 I don't care about.
A case of wine, lunch or a beer is fun.
If I'm looking at a financial return anything less than about £20-25K just isn't worth the time. So I don't bet, I'd rather invest instead.
Yeah, I know what it's like Charles.
Yesterday I was umm-ing and arr-ing over whether to deposit £50 into my paddypower account to take advantage of a 48p arb.
Are you sure the 48p wasn't the size of the stake Publicity Shy Paddy Power would let you place ?
ISIS claim to have "burned alive" Jordanian pilot...
The video is apparently released already. I'm not looking, let alone linking.
Just broken across the media. Truly evil creatures.
Incredibly, the stories I am hearing (from reliable sources) of what ISIS plan to do to soldiers/police in the UK/France would make this killing look positively moderate.
Boris is right. This is all one great, big, vile wank. Isis are sexual deviants gizzing as they kill. And needing to kill in ever more repulsive ways in order to get to climax.
The trouble is they have the capacity and the intent and the capability to do almost anything.
Combine the worst form of murder, in the most horrible way, including women and children, and then multiply it by the internet and live broadcast video, and you are somewhere close to what ISIS are, allegedly, planning for western Europe.
If they succeed the reaction will be race war, or something very close to it. Certainly we will see the suspension of normal civil order and human rights.
I fear you are right. However, you can also bet your bottom dollar that at the moment ISIS is being infiltrated from a variety of places and that a lot is being learned about its operations, its key personnel and its plans. In the end, it will be defeated. The question is at what cost.
For a start we need to lock up any one coming back from Syria/Iraq/Turkey from now on, or turn them away at the frontier and send them back to the Mid East to die. Treat them the way we used to treat rabies. Quarantine them for six months. A year. Two years.
We can no longer take the risk. Another Islamist madman tried to knife French soldiers today, in Nice.
I raised the point the other day of why we need to keep Somali asylum seekers here. Can't we send them all to the peaceful, stable Somaliland to be among their country men?
@JGForsyth: Ukip’s agriculture spokesman’s explanation of the motives behind its new policy on on-stun slaughter is jaw-dropping http://t.co/1qmx7DHNEI
However:
Ukip is the first political party to announce that it would back a ban on non-stun slaughter, advocated by animal rights groups including the RSPCA and the British Veterinary Association.
A member of theirs disagrees with this, the party line seems correct to me and individuals are allowed to have their own view in the party.
I think this is a good thing personally, opposing viewpoints and debates within parties, and I support UKIP's position on this.
@JGForsyth: Ukip’s agriculture spokesman’s explanation of the motives behind its new policy on on-stun slaughter is jaw-dropping http://t.co/1qmx7DHNEI
"stunning" would have fit better than "jaw dropping" don't you think?
"Lutfur Rahman’s Allies Are Considering Running For Parliament
Candidates associated with the controversial Tower Hamlets mayor could stand against Labour under the Tower Hamlets First banner in the upcoming general election":
It was always going to be a matter of time before an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our population starts being an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our politics. And, on the current course, both things will increase with time.
Has a day gone by Socrates when you haven't posted something about Muslims on PB? Methinks you are a little obsessed.
I post things about Muslims in reaction to news events about them. Are we supposed to see new Muslim-aligned parties or mass child rape by Muslim gangs or human rights violations by Muslim terrorist networks and ignore the link to religion and culture?
@IsabelHardman: Ukip weren’t aiming their non-stun slaughter policy at Jewish food… but thinking of ‘others’, ‘you know what I mean’ http://t.co/5dpIShC0Aj
UKIP are not racist. They just keep saying and doing things that look racist, OK?
@nedsimons: Ukip MEP says Jewish people 'collateral damage' in non-stun slaughter policy 'aimed at others'. http://t.co/S1nxgIcEq7
ISIS claim to have "burned alive" Jordanian pilot...
The video is apparently released already. I'm not looking, let alone linking.
Just broken across the media. Truly evil creatures.
Incredibly, the stories I am hearing (from reliable sources) of what ISIS plan to do to soldiers/police in the UK/France would make this killing look positively moderate.
Boris is right. This is all one great, big, vile wank. Isis are sexual deviants gizzing as they kill. And needing to kill in ever more repulsive ways in order to get to climax.
The trouble is they have the capacity and the intent and the capability to do almost anything.
Combine the worst form of murder, in the most horrible way, including women and children, and then multiply it by the internet and live broadcast video, and you are somewhere close to what ISIS are, allegedly, planning for western Europe.
If they succeed the reaction will be race war, or something very close to it. Certainly we will see the suspension of normal civil order and human rights.
I fear you are right. However, you can also bet your bottom dollar that at the moment ISIS is being infiltrated from a variety of places and that a lot is being learned about its operations, its key personnel and its plans. In the end, it will be defeated. The question is at what cost.
For a start we need to lock up any one coming back from Syria/Iraq/Turkey from now on, or turn them away at the frontier and send them back to the Mid East to die. Treat them the way we used to treat rabies. Quarantine them for six months. A year. Two years.
We can no longer take the risk. Another Islamist madman tried to knife French soldiers today, in Nice.
Sky News report suggested it was a sign of desperation. The sooner that gang of barbarians is bombed to death the better.
Mr. Smithson, the Rahman story is entirely legitimate and relevant. The alleged subversion of democracy in our capital city is worthy of discussion. We need more debate about such matters.
"Lutfur Rahman’s Allies Are Considering Running For Parliament
Candidates associated with the controversial Tower Hamlets mayor could stand against Labour under the Tower Hamlets First banner in the upcoming general election":
It was always going to be a matter of time before an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our population starts being an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our politics. And, on the current course, both things will increase with time.
Has a day gone by Socrates when you haven't posted something about Muslims on PB? Methinks you are a little obsessed.
Or maybe Scorates ir reacting quite normally, and it is radical Muslims who just keep "getting in the news"?
To NOT "comment on Islam" on the day Islamic state burned a man alive, at the same time as another Islamist tried to knife several French soldiers, would be rather odd, on a political website.
Front page of the Sky News website... 50% of the main stories involve muslims be it burning people alive, beating up and hacking sheep to death, stabbing jews, or planning to fight for ISIS.. it would be an extraordinary feat of looking the other way not to mention them on a site where news headlines influence almost everything
It was rightly hailed as a very thoughtful speech at the time, and it remains so.
(1) Extend and complete the single market (arguably increases EU involvement) (2) A lot of stuff about flexibility. But what it basically boils down to is an opt-out from ever closer union (which in practice we already have) and some safeguards about being outvoted by the eurozone (3) Power must be able to flow back. Good one. First point that might reverse integration. But a lot of talk about review of competencies and 'nothing being off the table' before ending in an opt-out for the NHS. That's not quite the same thing. (4) National parliament vetos. I've seen nothing that so far demonstrates any progress on this whatsoever. (5) Single market protection, again. Basically a reiteration of (2)
I make that one integrationist, one cosmetic, two concrete points (but with no meat to back it up) and one non-sequitur.
If he actually got substance on (3) (4) as well as (5) coupled with immigration reform/cap for the EU, I'd be voting Conservative in May.
WTF Labour's GE 2015 Strategy. Now I know that Labour have a lot of no go areas where they cannot talk about many issues, but LGBT bullying is hardly at the top of voters interest.
"Labour plan to tackle bullying with ban on children calling each other 'gay' and sex education lessons from age five"
Not as gay as the picture they have of Hunt. OGH must be seething that he didnt post it first.
The index finger of Anna Soubry hangs over that picture.
The picture of the incredibly bored-looking kids sitting around the table being lectured by Hunt is also pretty funny.
Yesterday Cameron did something very open and brave. He said that the tories would keep education at current levels in cash terms but not increase it with inflation. This gives every lefty a massive lever to attack the tories with. But it is the right and honest policy. It should be supported. Predictably Hunt attacked it but would not commit to spending more, although he attacked it on the basis that spending less was wrong. In response we see all this rubbish, I'm not sure if giving schools ever more hoops to jump through will go down that well.
"Lutfur Rahman’s Allies Are Considering Running For Parliament
Candidates associated with the controversial Tower Hamlets mayor could stand against Labour under the Tower Hamlets First banner in the upcoming general election":
It was always going to be a matter of time before an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our population starts being an unintegrated conservative Muslim segment of our politics. And, on the current course, both things will increase with time.
Has a day gone by Socrates when you haven't posted something about Muslims on PB? Methinks you are a little obsessed.
I post things about Muslims in reaction to news events about them. Are we supposed to see new Muslim-aligned parties or mass child rape by Muslim gangs or human rights violations by Muslim terrorist networks and ignore the link to religion and culture?
On a day of unspeakable Islamist horror, Mike Smithson would rather have us talk about Scottish marginal polling.
I see the willful, dangerous blindness here, and it is not on your side of the equation.
If it doesn't need ratification elsewhere then it's not a Treaty change and you will argue that it's not protected.
Ratification can still happen elsewhere if we have agreement from the people that need to ratify it that it will be ratified. Or it can be ratified before the end of 2017.
And our referendum would be conditional. A popular mandate for staying in a reformed EU by implication means that if the reforms don't go through in a substantially similar format then there is no mandate. I'd expect that will be made explicit in any enabling legislation.
I will bet you £50 at evens that, if there is a renegotiation, there is no explicit conditionality written into the referendum legislation.
I only bet for fun and I suspect you wouldn't be much fun to bet with.
Sozz.
What are you talking about? I'm one of the most irritating critics of your party and your leader on here! If you beat me, you get to take my hard earned money and bring it up again and again about how wrong I was for a good six months. That's loads of fun!
Nah, you're just irritating. ;-)
The problem is that £50 isn't worth the hassle.
I thought you were betting for fun, not money?
£50 I don't care about.
A case of wine, lunch or a beer is fun.
If I'm looking at a financial return anything less than about £20-25K just isn't worth the time. So I don't bet, I'd rather invest instead.
Yeah, I know what it's like Charles.
Yesterday I was umm-ing and arr-ing over whether to deposit £50 into my paddypower account to take advantage of a 48p arb.
Sorry about that; Socrates provoked me.
I'm just playing with my Dad and brother's money though. The advantage of being a "spare" is I don't have any responsibilities.
If it doesn't need ratification elsewhere then it's not a Treaty change and you will argue that it's not protected.
Ratification can still happen elsewhere if we have agreement from the people that need to ratify it that it will be ratified. Or it can be ratified before the end of 2017.
And our referendum would be conditional. A popular mandate for staying in a reformed EU by implication means that if the reforms don't go through in a substantially similar format then there is no mandate. I'd expect that will be made explicit in any enabling legislation.
I will bet you £50 at evens that, if there is a renegotiation, there is no explicit conditionality written into the referendum legislation.
I only bet for fun and I suspect you wouldn't be much fun to bet with.
Sozz.
What are you talking about? I'm one of the most irritating critics of your party and your leader on here! If you beat me, you get to take my hard earned money and bring it up again and again about how wrong I was for a good six months. That's loads of fun!
Nah, you're just irritating. ;-)
The problem is that £50 isn't worth the hassle.
I thought you were betting for fun, not money?
£50 I don't care about.
A case of wine, lunch or a beer is fun.
If I'm looking at a financial return anything less than about £20-25K just isn't worth the time. So I don't bet, I'd rather invest instead.
Re "red lines", isn't all negotiation a series of pluses and minuses?
So, for example, Cameron might score:
CAP opt-out, 5 points Change to benefits rules, 5 points Points system, 3 points Exit from EHCR binding, 4 points
(These are made up, obviously...)
etc.
Achieving 12 points might be interesting. But none of the individual items are 'red lines'.
(I make this up solely as an example of how I would address any negotiation. And I wouldn't let anyone know how I rank my points, as why would I tip my hand?)
Spot on
Do you want to cough for our China bet? This is not meant as a slanderous insinuation - it's my fault for not messaging you on Vanilla earlier.
You're talking to @rcs1000 right? I don't think we had a China bet
Re "red lines", isn't all negotiation a series of pluses and minuses? So, for example, Cameron might score: CAP opt-out, 5 points Change to benefits rules, 5 points Points system, 3 points Exit from EHCR binding, 4 points (These are made up, obviously...) etc. Achieving 12 points might be interesting. But none of the individual items are 'red lines'. (I make this up solely as an example of how I would address any negotiation. And I wouldn't let anyone know how I rank my points, as why would I tip my hand?)
What you are suggesting is similar the fairly normal method of selecting criteria for the attributes of a subject and weighting them according to importance when considering options for say the purchase of some business equipment or investment choice. You examine the different options and score the criteria and multiply by the weight. All too often the criteria get forgotten entirely, never mind the weighting.
So really we should be looking at the different options for our relationship with the EU and creating a set of criteria with appropriate weights based on what we want to achieve. According to the options we can score the criteria and multiply by the weights to see which scores best as far as they meet our requirements. One option would be completely out and no relationship at all. At the other extreme would be joining the Eurozone. Doing this you quantify judgement, but judgements do need justifying otherwise all you still end up with is prejudice.
It should be made clear to the Greeks that either they pay their debts as scheduled or they default and leave the euro.
Period. The Greeks aren't children, they should be forced to face up to the implications of their actions - just as the Venezuelans are having to face up to the implications of theirs.
Except part of Greece's troubles are entirely because the ECB isn't doing its job because Germany has a mad inflation phobia.
The Greeks don't want to make the reforms which would help make them competitive with other Eurozone countries.
If they don't make the reforms then the alternative is to leave the Eurozone and devalue their currency so that they then become competitive with Eurozone countries.
There is no solution which is to stay in the Eurozone and not make the reforms.
Kippers seem angry because the polling showed last week
1) Voters want to stay in the EU
2) A majority support Dave's approach on renegotiation.
In my opinion at least attempting renegotiation will strengthen the BOO cause. Pressure groups such as Business for Britain which campaign for a renegotiation will have to decide whether to campaign for either leaving the EU or remaining within it. Once renegotiation has been ruled out, voters will have two options, in or out.
As a "Kipper" I am not angry in the slightest. I am confident Dave will not be able to achieve anything close to a satisfactory renegotiation package. In the meantime the EU will continue to go nowhere/decline and Greece will hopefully either cause havoc or leave. 2015 will be an interesting year for European politics especially with the Spanish general election which Podemos could potentially win.
If it doesn't need ratification elsewhere then it's not a Treaty change and you will argue that it's not protected.
Ratification can still happen elsewhere if we have agreement from the people that need to ratify it that it will be ratified. Or it can be ratified before the end of 2017.
And our referendum would be conditional. A popular mandate for staying in a reformed EU by implication means that if the reforms don't go through in a substantially similar format then there is no mandate. I'd expect that will be made explicit in any enabling legislation.
I will bet you £50 at evens that, if there is a renegotiation, there is no explicit conditionality written into the referendum legislation.
I only bet for fun and I suspect you wouldn't be much fun to bet with.
Sozz.
What are you talking about? I'm one of the most irritating critics of your party and your leader on here! If you beat me, you get to take my hard earned money and bring it up again and again about how wrong I was for a good six months. That's loads of fun!
Nah, you're just irritating. ;-)
The problem is that £50 isn't worth the hassle.
I thought you were betting for fun, not money?
£50 I don't care about.
A case of wine, lunch or a beer is fun.
If I'm looking at a financial return anything less than about £20-25K just isn't worth the time. So I don't bet, I'd rather invest instead.
What a vulgar and awful thing to say.
No it isn't - its the opposite. Winning £50 is not a big deal to him. I salute his candour. On the other hand a relatively inexpensive bet where something can actually be experienced and enjoyed on winning such as as being bought a good lunch by the loser is more worthwhile. Being vulgar would be upping the bet to £1000 and being obvious about being able to afford it.
And in passing we are once again getting pathetic excuses for avoiding a referendum.
@JGForsyth: Ukip’s agriculture spokesman’s explanation of the motives behind its new policy on on-stun slaughter is jaw-dropping http://t.co/1qmx7DHNEI
"stunning" would have fit better than "jaw dropping" don't you think?
Jew cuts a sheeps throat and its OK. Muslim cuts a sheeps throat and its terrible. Welcome to the world of UKIP. ''Mr Agnew said he believed that the policy was put forward to win votes ahead of the general election. He said: “There are more votes to be gained, and I expect that’s what they were looking for. “We’ll have lost the Jewish vote for sure, they won’t support us now for sure – we won’t get any now. “But we might gain votes elsewhere – and that’s what they’re after, general election votes."Its a world that gets wackier by the minute when its agriculture spokesman will not resign after being overruled on the policy. '
In terms of animal welfare the abattoir in question should be shut down to encourage the others.
Comments
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/01/david-camerons-speech-eu-full-text
It was rightly hailed as a very thoughtful speech at the time, and it remains so.
They've not had an original insult in years.
Yesterday I was umm-ing and arr-ing over whether to deposit £50 into my paddypower account to take advantage of a 48p arb.
But they remain by far and away the most direct evidence that we possess of the current state of play of the parties in each individual constituency polled. They have to be factored into the constituency betting.
Ukip is the first political party to announce that it would back a ban on non-stun slaughter, advocated by animal rights groups including the RSPCA and the British Veterinary Association.
A member of theirs disagrees with this, the party line seems correct to me and individuals are allowed to have their own view in the party.
I think this is a good thing personally, opposing viewpoints and debates within parties, and I support UKIP's position on this.
UKIP are not racist. They just keep saying and doing things that look racist, OK?
@nedsimons: Ukip MEP says Jewish people 'collateral damage' in non-stun slaughter policy 'aimed at others'. http://t.co/S1nxgIcEq7
Poor sod.
Sky News report suggested it was a sign of desperation. The sooner that gang of barbarians is bombed to death the better.
Mr. Smithson, the Rahman story is entirely legitimate and relevant. The alleged subversion of democracy in our capital city is worthy of discussion. We need more debate about such matters.
http://news.sky.com/
(2) A lot of stuff about flexibility. But what it basically boils down to is an opt-out from ever closer union (which in practice we already have) and some safeguards about being outvoted by the eurozone
(3) Power must be able to flow back. Good one. First point that might reverse integration. But a lot of talk about review of competencies and 'nothing being off the table' before ending in an opt-out for the NHS. That's not quite the same thing.
(4) National parliament vetos. I've seen nothing that so far demonstrates any progress on this whatsoever.
(5) Single market protection, again. Basically a reiteration of (2)
I make that one integrationist, one cosmetic, two concrete points (but with no meat to back it up) and one non-sequitur.
If he actually got substance on (3) (4) as well as (5) coupled with immigration reform/cap for the EU, I'd be voting Conservative in May.
This gives every lefty a massive lever to attack the tories with. But it is the right and honest policy. It should be supported. Predictably Hunt attacked it but would not commit to spending more, although he attacked it on the basis that spending less was wrong.
In response we see all this rubbish, I'm not sure if giving schools ever more hoops to jump through will go down that well.
'Coulibaly is a common Bambara language surname in West Africa'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coulibaly
I'm just playing with my Dad and brother's money though. The advantage of being a "spare" is I don't have any responsibilities.
All too often the criteria get forgotten entirely, never mind the weighting.
So really we should be looking at the different options for our relationship with the EU and creating a set of criteria with appropriate weights based on what we want to achieve. According to the options we can score the criteria and multiply by the weights to see which scores best as far as they meet our requirements. One option would be completely out and no relationship at all. At the other extreme would be joining the Eurozone.
Doing this you quantify judgement, but judgements do need justifying otherwise all you still end up with is prejudice.
If they don't make the reforms then the alternative is to leave the Eurozone and devalue their currency so that they then become competitive with Eurozone countries.
There is no solution which is to stay in the Eurozone and not make the reforms.
As a "Kipper" I am not angry in the slightest. I am confident Dave will not be able to achieve anything close to a satisfactory renegotiation package. In the meantime the EU will continue to go nowhere/decline and Greece will hopefully either cause havoc or leave. 2015 will be an interesting year for European politics especially with the Spanish general election which Podemos could potentially win.
On the other hand a relatively inexpensive bet where something can actually be experienced and enjoyed on winning such as as being bought a good lunch by the loser is more worthwhile.
Being vulgar would be upping the bet to £1000 and being obvious about being able to afford it.
And in passing we are once again getting pathetic excuses for avoiding a referendum.
''Mr Agnew said he believed that the policy was put forward to win votes ahead of the general election.
He said: “There are more votes to be gained, and I expect that’s what they were looking for.
“We’ll have lost the Jewish vote for sure, they won’t support us now for sure – we won’t get any now.
“But we might gain votes elsewhere – and that’s what they’re after, general election votes."Its a world that gets wackier by the minute when its agriculture spokesman will not resign after being overruled on the policy. '
In terms of animal welfare the abattoir in question should be shut down to encourage the others.