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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The best betting strategy for tomorrow is do nothing till you’ve seen the numbers
At 11am tomorrow morning Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish single seat polls will be published and will get huge media attention. It is going to be an intensive period for political punters both on the constituency markets and the overall outcome ones.
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Off topic, this guy is one of the few really bright tory sparks
The wipeout in Scotland newspaper headlines will be nothing new, we've had plenty already, though they'll have more credence.
Lol - he's still down the betting shop!
I fully expect Ladbrokes to suspend prices when the poll comes out. @Shadsy is on the ball.
I'd prefer it if there was some less bad news for Labour, but I'm not overly hopeful.
If the SNP are ahead in seats like Glenrothes, E.Lothian, Glasgow NE, then that will be very unhelpful.
Is it official or not?
Nor should he before the poll is published.
TNS have informed me that their phone poll was NOT intended to be a snapshot of voting intention and pv weighting was not used. Have deleted
@Sunil_Prasannan
You are starting to bewilder me, and I'm sure others, with your constant fiddling and changes, now almost hourly, on your ELBOW.
Before you turn the ELBOW, - which I like - and yourself to a harlequin of fun, and not to be taken seriously, why don't you consider publishing the ELBOW twice a week on say, Tuesday and Friday: come what may and never mind the news headlines.
Do this, up to say the last 3 weeks to the election; then and only then, would it be worth while to publish daily.
I hope you're not to cross with my criticism.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2937863/Tory-minister-insists-9-000-year-tuition-fees-not-expensive-cost-posh-coffee-day-repay.html
Being a right twat seems to be the pre-requisite for the position of Universities Minister.
Glasgow East
SNP 2.1
To my mind the striking thing is the mismatch between the betting (indicating that punters expect around 30-34 SNP seats) and the existing Scottish polls, which indicate an SNP total well over 40 and perhaps over 50. If the Ashcroft poll shows, in aggregate, a similar result to the various Scottish polls, I anticipate that that discrepancy will diminish - i.e. that the spreads and the line will move upwards, and the individual constitency prices for the SNP will shorten.
This seems likely. In principle, there seems to be no reason why Lord Ashcroft's pollsters should find a picture very different from what the others have been finding. It might be the case that the two-stage question will prompt respondents substantially towards the incumbent, to the detriment of the SNP's showing. However, I have a hunch that this won't be so; Scottish voters seem distinctly disgruntled with their (mainly Labour) Westminster MPs.
Andy Slaughter MP @hammersmithandy 13m13 minutes ago
David Cameron slams tax avoiders while his wife - er- works for a company based in a tax haven http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2937589/Awkward-Luxury-leather-goods-firm-Smythson-PM-s-wife-Samantha-Cameron-works-based-tax-haven …
Economists at Deutsche Bank said yesterday that the UK is on track for a coalition between Labour and the SNP following May’s election – but warned that the British economy would do better in the long term under a deficit-cutting Tory government.
Same Brit media that cried #JeSuisCharlie, wailed for free speech, now campaigning to stop @georgegalloway appearing on @bbcquestiontime
I take it that this is not the new Gold Standard?
A more serious problem is the de facto blasphemy law the media has mostly adopted.
On Mrs Cameron - unless she's the decision-maker, that's as valid as attacking an employee of Boots for what their CEO does.
It's also hypocritical to say "Hurrah for the EU" and then complain businesses relocate within it, just as it's stupid to propose high taxes and then complain when businesses go to low tax economies.
We're not surely going to say that people shouldn't work for such companies. That might annoy quite a lot of Boots employees, for instance.
I have long been a bull on SNP prospects in constituency betting. As from tomorrow, I expect that the party will be over, at least in terms of being able to back the SNP at odds against in constituencies where they should really be odds on. Ah well, it's lasted a long time.
Wait a minute
Has Dan Hodges tweeted something negative about Cameron ?!
That's the real story there !
I wasn't expecting someone to add it to the wikipedia page.
Thank heavens for good sense at the FA when the England job was up -ignoring Harry and his lackeys in the media and in football.
A few Elmbridge voters amongst them, I shouldn't wonder....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-31097569
Really, it's more of an attempt to do a sort of word-association smear: luxury - tax haven - Cameron. A bit pathetic really.
Mirror image of this website ?
Three soldiers on anti-terror patrol in Nice, southern France, wounded in knife attack, French police say http://bbc.in/1LI7Nu8
Blimey! looks like incipient civil war about to start in France.
Hollande's in catch-22. Withdraw the army and people may feel afraid (and it could make them more open to attack). Have patrols and guards on duty and they're targets.
BTW, Nice is where I once met an Italian girl from Genoa and had a brief affair; many years ago now.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-31108823
This is the problem when your Party ethos is built up on tabloid newspaper agendas.
What a joke of a Party UKIP is.
In the unlikely event that Lord A's polling holds out any hope for Labour, this will be quickly extinguished by the SNP deploying it's massive ground resources to squash any remaining SLAB/LibDem aspirations.
Depending how bad things are looking, I wouldn't be surprised if Jim Murphy decides to stand down in favour of Blair McDougall, so Jim can concentrate on Holyrood 2016.
Stay classy Labour.
Con Minority, SNP Absteining in trouble
Sounds like you had a better trip!
I'd have thought from a betting perspective the impact of the Ashcroft polling might be stronger on the LD and SNP numbers rather than the LAB or CON numbers. Assuming the shrewd souls who bought SNP seats at 20 or less a long time ago haven't cashed out (and why would they ?) they should be sitting very pretty unless tomorrow is much better for Labour than anyone suspects/hopes/fears (delete as appropriate).
The LD situation is more interesting - Ashcroft's constituency polling in England has been fairly positive for the Party and is probably a lot to do with the seat numbers spread being as high as it is. IF it looks as though the LDs will be reduced to 1-2 Scottish MPs that will impact on that figure and make 27.5 look a viable SELL.
OTOH, a more solid LD performance and a retention of say 4-6 seats would be tempting for buyers at 29.5 as it might confirm incumbency and resilience helping prop up the LD seat figure nationally quite apart from any possible gains in rural Wales and the end of the Metropolitan Line.
Joking aside, I was fascinated by the diabolical psychological techiques employed by the Stasi. They effectively induced madness by conducting long-term interference in dissidents lives. From wiki:
Tactics employed under Zersetzung generally involved the disruption of the victim's private or family life. This often included psychological attacks such as breaking into homes and subtly manipulating the contents – moving furniture, altering the timing of an alarm, removing pictures from walls or replacing one variety of tea with another. Other practices included property damage, sabotage of cars, purposely incorrect medical treatment, smear campaigns including sending falsified compromising photos or documents to the victim's family, denunciation, provocation, psychological warfare, psychological subversion, wiretapping, bugging, mysterious phone calls or unnecessary deliveries, even including sending a vibrator to a target's wife. Usually victims had no idea the Stasi were responsible. Many thought they were losing their minds.
That's not posh coffee. That's coffee for those with more money than sense.
It's not pleasant but somebody did once opine politics was "a rough trade". Still, he had gone through a similar experience to what seems to be a common happening around dockside areas to people in the world's oldest profession.
French soldiers attacked by knife-wielding man in Nice were patrolling outside a Jewish community centre http://bbc.in/18KhHfO
Lab 1.8% ahead (cf. 1.7% in the simple average)
http://www.tnsglobal.com/press-release/latest-polling-from-tns-on-uk-voter-intention
http://www.tnsglobal.com/sites/default/files/TNS_BMRB_Tables_-_All_adults.pdf
They are however most likely a Sell though.
How long can the French state keep this up? Are the army going to be deployed indefinitely to guard places where Jews congregate?
As a result the SNP will have a strong negotiating hand after the general election.
Dog wags tail - not news
Tail wags dog - bad news
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/the-70-cup-of-coffee-with-a-dirty-secret-6379689.html
Those scenes in France look a bit like the Troubles in Northern Ireland.
"The prospect of Osborne playing the decisive role after Cameron in EU negotiations will be seen as a clear sign that the prime minister is determined to keep Britain in the EU – assuming that the negotiations are successful. Osborne regards the negotiations as “doable”.
Osborne believes that Britain enhances its position on the world stage in the EU. The chancellor believes that opponents of British membership are neither coherent nor credible in believing the UK could renegotiate membership terms along the lines of Switzerland and Norway."
What a lot of meaningless guff.
"The Conservative minister, speaking at a science and engineering debate at the Royal Society last month, said: 'First of all it is important that we don't distract from the fact that for students under the system that we have, if you have a great education you only pay back if you're earning over £21,000 and only 9 per cent of your earnings above that.
'What that means is if you earn £30,000 as a graduate you bay back £2.22 a day, now there are people who buy cups of posh coffee for less than that, and I think people recognise that that is a phenomenal investment, it's not just a good investment for the student, but actually it's a good investment for the taxpayer.' "
By the way, that civet cat coffee is very nice.
I am however reminded of some lines from a classic 1980s ditty:
"Propping up the bar at the Finborough Arms
A VAT on the slate, please, Stonch, and TSE's looking for a sub
OGH is on for a nice little earner
Eagles getting flak and he's on to a loser
Minding the polls and the social media
Looking for a rumour about the latest YouGov
Pound to a euro he won't get paid
On account of the recession
In the fixed-odds betting trade"
I'll get me trilby...
"I wouldn’t dare to be so uncouth as to suggest [Scottish] Labour are fucked but they’re hardly unfucked either."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/unless-something-changes-soon-scottish-labour-is-doomed/
Other than that, carry on
This is the weasel vomit.