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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest YouGov makes it 8 consecutive polls without a CON lead but there’s more dire news for LAB from Scotland
Curtice in the Indy: GE15 "more about what kind of hung parliament we acquire rather than who can win a majority" pic.twitter.com/QSW8BK6QA5
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Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcrof -@MSmithsonPB - mmmmm
Arf - his lordship is such a tease…!
A completely new framework is required and a definitive commitment to this effect from one or more of the major parties may have a major influence at the forthcoming GE, particularly with English voters who are becoming heartily sick of being treated as second class citizens when it comes to the sharing out of the UK cake. Things have to change big time and soon.
While Spreadex's market remains open 24hrs per day, overly cautious Sporting choose to close theirs by late afternoon and then don't bother re-opening it until and unless they feel so inclined the following day.
What is needed is for financial spread-betting giant IG to enter the fray for the GE season to spice things up, introduce additional interesting markets and to provide more competition generally.
Followers of the AAA ratings (Ashcroft Analytical Assessments) on twitter will be aware that this reflects that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
To enable such suggested bets to stand out, these should be highlighted under the established ***** Betting Post ***** banner.
Allow me to kick things off this week with what I consider is a cracking value bet from bet365:
The Tories to win <286.5 GE Seats at odds of 10/11 (aka 1.91 decimal).
DYOR.
Anyway, Labour will not win from here. More anon.
Brent crude continuing its rise. WTI still low enough to bankrupt US shale.
3.2.15 LAB 313 (310) CON 267(269) LD29(31) UKIP2(2) Others39(38) Ed is crap is PM
The 2010:2015 vote ratios are roughly 31.5 each to both CON and LAB across the last ten days,
Must be a lot of first time voters or people who sat on their hands last time who are wildly enthused by Ed.
Today may well be the last chance to get odds-against prices on the SNP in a dozen Scottish constituencies.
Those who continue to pile into Tory most seats make President Romney's most fervent supporters look sanguine. The bet of this week must surely be EICIPM. It may not happen, Labour may implode, there may be sudden and radical shifts in the polling but the odds being offered are ridiculous and driven by the weight of money.
The only precedent I can think of for that would be when Ken Livingstone let someone else go to the trouble of winning the election for the GLC and then staged a coup after the election to take control.
Given Labour's constitutional paralysis I really cannot conceive how a leader who has won the most seats is going to get the heave. And it is not as if Ed is a Nick Clegg or Gordon Brown type divisive figure that others will just refuse to work with. Most of them will be confident that they can bully him more easily than the alternatives (with the possible exception of Burnham).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEpmY19JSTdHWm02WUZRWE1NY2xraFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Changes in YouGov poll are SNP+28%, Lab-15%. Swing Lab to SNP: 21.5%.
SNP would gain 32 Lab seats, Labour would hold 9 seats.
SNP swing required to win Glasgow seats:
Glasgow South : 15.79%
Glasgow Central: 17.26%
Glasgow East: 18.41%
Glasgow North West: 19.40%
Glasgow North: 19.43%
Glasgow South West: 23.08%
Glasgow North East: 27.10%
Swing in Glasgow likely to be higher than average swing,
Good news! Betfair again has background stats available for tennis matches. Only checked it quickly, but it seems, irritatingly, to be one set of stats per match, rather than a single page where all forthcoming matches have stats available. But it's still better than nothing (if worse than before).
Day 3 of the first test. McLaren having teething problems, but that shouldn't be over-estimated. Generally, reliability is good. Get the feeling Sauber are doing low fuel runs to get nice times and try and get sponsors interested.
Why would the defeated, demoralised and probably leaderless Lib Dems insist on Ed standing down? The idea that Alan Johnson might be chosen shows the desperation of the idea.
Ed walked over his brother's body to get this job. He may be useless but he is probably more driven to justify his decisions than any leader in recent years.
In the waking world, no reason for any despondency. Neck and neck at around 32-33 with just over three months to go against a Labour party led by EdM? I'll take that very happily thank you very much.
Watch this space.
Absolutely no idea who that candidate would be, but I think you'd need such an unusual scenario to force the party leader to step aside from becoming PM in the immediate post-election period.
* Odd name because it would largely exclude the SNP-dominated Scotland, but, you-know-what-I-mean.
"There's no point reading into headline times because we don't know the spec in which each team is running their car, nor do we know fuel loads.
But Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel will still be pleased with their efforts so far as the German finished top of the pile on both days and racked up a solid amount of laps."
Let's not look at the times, they're worthless. Vettel was fastest both days, he must be pleased.
I do agree with your second paragraph. There's everything to play for in the current situation. The election can be won by either side.
Con 290
Lab 270
SNP 40
Lib Dem 25
There is no plausible Conservative-led majority that is stable. But Labour + SNP + Lib Dem would have a majority of 18, not to mention the support in practice from Plaid Cymru, the SDLP and others in all probability. So some government of that type would be formed.
Would Ed Miliband be seen as the man to lead it, given that Labour would have been seen to have underperformed and he would presumably be personally blamed for that? The point is at least open to question.
Stuart Rose claims Labour’s ‘business-bashing’ could curb investment and lead to ‘shuttered shop fronts, empty high streets and lengthening dole queues’.His intervention, in an article for the Daily Mail, is especially significant because he was handpicked by Gordon Brown to advise him directly as prime minister.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2937172/Man-saved-M-S-savages-Ed-Stuart-Rose-brands-Miliband-seventies-throwback-day-Boots-chief-attacked-Labour.html#ixzz3QfUSVQRz
Oh dear.....
The overall trend over the last 3 months is quite nicely shown by
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/03/labour-lead-2/
Within MOE, the fairest summary is to say there isn't a trend at all. Nobody is changing their minds. People backing a Tory majority are betting that these lines will dramatically alter in the next 3 months. It's not very likely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
That's why it is so hard to call.
As Mike repeatedly points out a narrow win on share of the vote is absolutely no use to the tories. They will lose at least 50 seats in England to Labour with a small lead. They need to be well ahead and only models based on different, inaccurate polling in very different circumstances give any credence to the idea that they will.
This is the election where anything is possible but not necessarily likely.
Maybe JackW puts a "special ingredient" into his pies? Time to swear off them for February?
Lights go out in South Africa. Government blames apartheid:
http://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2015/02/01/south-africa-faces-worsening-blackout-with-glitch-at-nuclear-station/
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21637396-rolling-power-cuts-are-fraying-tempers-unplugged
For most parliaments that would be a bonkers position but I'm happy with it.
@iainmartin1: Boots moved to Switzerland in 2008, under Gordon Brown. Did anyone attack them at the time? Rather than now (93 days from general election)
If some sort of arrangement was reached with the DUP that'd take it to 322/323 seats, which would scrape an effective overall majority, and the government would be stable enough. At least for a couple of years until it started to internally fragment.
UKIP and the SNP seem intent on trying to split the nation in different ways and never mind the election - the sores they are opening may take a long time to heal if ever.
Anyone who actually cares about English voters as a whole getting their voices heard would support PR, not a voting system that is skewed in favour of two big parties that never look likely to get close to 40% of the vote in England again.
It won't be.
Is Cameron an asset? Yes and no, he lacks political and strategic nous, and fails to connect with ordinary voters. Better than most though.
We speak of fragmentation under the current system, which is correct, but imagine if we had PR right now, and the polls equated to an electoral result.
33% Lab, 32% Con, 13% UKIP, 8% Lib Dem, 8% Green, 6% Other.
215 Labour MPs
208 Con MPs
85 UKIP MPs
52 Lib Dem MPs
52 Green MPs
38 Other MPs
For a stable coalition you're looking at a minimum of three parties. Manifesto pledges become entirely optional. The government would be determined more by the back-room political horse-trading of politicians than by the will of the people. It'd even be theoretically possible for UKIP to become the major party of government.
FPTP is not a perfect system, but it's better than the nonsense of PR.
twitter.com/GreenDavidD/status/561915094603685888
The Conservatives could have backed AV in 2011. They didn't, so they'll have to suck it up.
Perhaps we shall see named candidates a little closer to the election. To some degree the Ashcroft polls mitigate against a great variation with the named constituency question but named candidates should ensure an even more accurate reflection of opinion.
And some are suggesting we have a Lab SNP LD coalition with both Lab and LD sacking their leaders and the SNP's leader sat in Edinburgh pulling the strings.
Where is the word democracy in that?
It will be entirely self-interested, and probably counter to England's narrow interests
One would hardly call the last Labour government a strong government whereas this coalition has been remarkably strong given the nature of the two parties involved and the problems they inherited.
http://www.greenocktelegraph.co.uk/news/gourock/articles/2015/01/31/523146-gourocks-teenage-ukip-candidate-speaks-of-election-hopes/
Now, it's in danger of delivering capricious results, as it does in Canada.
"We are in a first past the post system. Everything depends what happens in specific seats.
National vote share is irrelevant in determining the outcome."
Edit: though he probably only applies this reasoning when it helps the LD prospects look rosier.
A weak government of whatever stripe is the last thing we need right now though and it really is hard to see us getting anything else.
As it is, the Scots have worked out that the best way to get even more out of the system is to vote in the SNP.
Personally I would love to see a Labour government propped up by the SNP. Whatever happens the perception in England will be that the Scots are getting a far better deal than they are and it could be what finishes off the Labour Party.
The HoL BTW should be abolished.
The unresolved question is where all this leaves the LDs. If the tories hoover up their seats it might be some compensation, but Labour will probably pick up a chunk by default as well.
In Scotland they run the risk of going from an extreme level of efficiency to the exact opposite running up a lot of substantial but pointless seconds. That will hurt their overall efficiency enormously.
SNP though might have reasons to be cheerful unlike their little ray of sunshine uncle Malc :-)