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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cracking New Statesman piece by Matthew Engel on betting &
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cracking New Statesman piece by Matthew Engel on betting & politics
“…The original purpose of both sides – trying to make a profit on the transaction – is certainly not absent. Indeed, in recent years it has become more central. At the heart of this phenomenon is a new class somewhat different from the blokes who hang round the betting shops.
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http://order-order.com/2015/01/27/fmr-def-sec-isis-gains-entirely-due-to-whatsapp-or-snapchat/ Entirely ?! Or neither. So let me get this right, its a messaging system he doesnt understand, but has been told they cant crack, and they are sure its causing all the problems, alternatively it could be full of gossip and selfies and the real messages are passed by any one of several thousand ways to send secure messages including, inter alia, couriers and getting on a plane and going to talk to someone.
Perhaps Baroness Trumpington was right in her response to him last year http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/11/14/article-2061490-0ECC987600000578-649_634x398.jpg
Personally I think it's a complete myth derived by the lizard people of Bedford in a cruel and unscrupulous attempt to hype the share price of the South Midlands Hair Restoratives PLC.
Reminds me somewhat of this classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VgwxKW0J6I
I'm speculating on a number of reasons for the pro-Tory mood: the horror of Ed Miliband, distaste for Alex Salmond and the idea he might control power, desire to continue the economic platform and the mansion tax which would hit many of those near the top of the print media industry. It probably really comes down to the fact that Labour are a shambles and would be a disaster. Is there anyone left here on pb.com that thinks otherwise?
Hmm.
Alternatively, It's noticeable, to me at least, how the public are firming up for none of the major political parties. Both the Tories and Labour on around a third of the vote. Hardly a ringing endorsement of either of 'em.
Incidentally, when we have plain .... well, they won’t really be, will they ..... packets for cigarettes, won’t they be easier to spot, and, if discovered in a suspects pockets, lead to further inquiries by Inspector Knacker?
I agree with you about the Labour seat band. I also like the 9/2 Conservative majority.
9/2 on the LibDems in the 11-20 seat band also looks very tempting to me.
I win some and lose some. I did well on the indyref by following the McARSE, not so well on by-elections. May is going to be the big one when some half forgotten bets finally get settled one way or another.
When the going get's tough....
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn·7 hrs7 hours ago
100 days went well then; RT @johnprescott: I see those Tory collaborators Milburn & Hutton are attacking Labour's brilliant NHS plan...
James Chapman (Mail) retweeted
John Woodcock@JWoodcockMP·7 hrs7 hours ago
@johnprescott what a shabby thing to say
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2929179/Is-Plasticine-Mr-Miliband-New-character-Wallace-Gromit-creators-bears-uncanny-resemblance-Red-Ed.html
EdM is toast.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/auschwitz-survivor-gena-turgel-walked-out-gas-chamber-alive-n293496
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30947758
At this rate Labour will be sub 25
POEMWAS.
"Most of us would be terrified by the notion of subjecting our career and livelihood to continual monstering by the press and Twittersphere, interspersed with periodic revalidation by public whim." Indeed. Anna Soubry and I are both enthusiastic supporters. On a range of issues (mostly social), we do actually agree.
That's a rather nice write-up of the site. Perhaps I should check the full article, to see whether the important matters of F1 and classical history are mentioned.
25/1 for NOM. How times (and the electoral system) have changed...!
The one absurd thing that struck me in all of them was that there are no birds singing.
You could still feel the evil.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2929226/Trident-quit-Scotland-Wales-Secret-plan-nuclear-subs-triggered-rise-SNP.html
One fewer 'trump card' in the "inevitable" (sic) Indy negotiations......
"Alternatively, It's noticeable, to me at least, how the public are firming up for none of the major political parties."
It used to be the case that people would vote to prevent the worst of the two real options ending up in government. The LDs gained there but they are now part of the establishment.
I suspect that the lack of clear blue (or red) water will reduce this "worst" choice fear now that the differences are paper-thin anyway. You can vote Kipper or Green or whatever, and it's not the end of the world if the Blue or Reds get in. There are minor differences only at the economic level and socially, it's the same.
Why not vote Green and get Blue? Why not vote Kipper and get Red? Why vote against Blue/Red when the worst case is the same as the less worst case?
For those of you who are having trouble managing different betting accounts, I recommend using a password manager such as lastpass. This has a browser extension that can automatically remember and fill in your login details for you. As this frees you from having to remember the details, you can also use randomly geneated passwords so that you are not re-using passwords across different sites, which enhances security.
% NHS Outsourced - change:
Labour: +4.4%
Coalition: +1.5%
So the coalition is daily vilified by Labour for increasing outsourcing by one third of Labour's increase......
All they now need to do is start singing " men of Harlech" as the Zulus advance and the picture is entirely complete.
% NHS publicly Sourced:
Labour: 95.6%
Coalition: 94.1%
We truly are deep into the narcissism of small differences......
Hyperbole we expect from politicians. Twenty four hour to save the pound/NHS is par for the course and they'll say the same again tomorrow. But Burnham's big idea was closer cooperation between health and social care - probably not a bad idea but it should be happening anyway.
It seems that the more the big two parties merge, the more they scream how different they are. Tweedledee is much better than Tweedledum. Tweedledee is nicer and Tweedledum more efficient, so there.
I remember initially feeling the utter horror of the place, and yet by the time I left my senses were dulled, which goes to show how quickly you become immune to the sheer immensity of what was committed there.
Dachau - and Theodor Eicke - became the training ground for all Nazi Concentration Camps.
That visit instilled in me the meaning of extremism.
(b) The last 3 opinion polls show a 3% swing to Labour, which would deliver around 40-45 gains to the party in England and Wales.
And then there is this, the plain packaging makes it easy to sell counterfeit cigs:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11372374/Nick-de-Bois-Introducing-plain-cigarette-packaging-could-go-badly-badly-wrong.html
Credit also to Robert, TSE, Henry Manson, Antifrank, Jack W, Sunil, Andy JS, Rod Crosby, Harry Hayfield, Mark Senior and those others I have forgotten to mention who take a great deal of time and trouble to contribute articles, compile spreadsheets on marginal seats and swings etc etc.
As we are now within 100days of the GE, more than ever I see the numbers looking like
Tory 35-37%
Labour 25-28%
LibDem 10-15%
UKIP 10-15%
and Tories largest party between 300 seats and an ultra thin Tory majority
Cameron should try calling Miliband out on this, since it's just tub thumping bollocks.
https://t.co/vrJ8vSbO7I
@PCollinsTimes: I was also impressed by the idea that outsourcing at 4.4% is fine. But outsourcing at 6.6% is terrible. It's a very precise location of hell
@iainmartin1: @PCollinsTimes How about 5.5%? #thirdway
The journo consensus is very much that the Burnham interview proceeded in a manner not necessarily to his advantage.
@paulwaugh: Milburn/Hutton/Mand feel like drummer + guitarists trying to get band back together. But minus lead singer Blair. Discuss #UglyRumours #WRM
A granddaughter was a teacher on a school party which went to Auschwitz a couple of years ago. She told me that what really broke her was seeing the piles of children’s shoes!
Sourby to win
Huppert to win
Lay Lab maj
Cons most seats
Kippers to poll under 17% (Mike K)
LDs to get more actual votes than Ukip (isam)
His problem is a) the graph, which clearly showed the coalition has outsourced to private providers in fewer numbers than Labour did, and b) that he and Ed Miliband want to make the NHS the 'centrepiece' of the GE campaign when the major difference in policy seems small and the big difference just semantics.
Kirsty Wark was very good and very correct. Most patients want the best care and the quickest recovery, if that means being outsourced to a private clinic then would they actually give a toss?
I don't think many people want or support vast chuncks of NHS treatments being outsourced to private providers but a rise in five years from 4.4% outsourcing to 5.9% is hardly a worry. Certainly not time to start fearmongering on about 'saving the NHS'.
Take the politics out of it and the difference between Labour and the Tories is very small. Though I suspect perceptions among the electorate that Labour are better at running the NHS are out of synch with the numbers, hence the centrepiecing of the issue.
Strangely enough, voters do want a reason to vote for the man or woman who appears at the door. Honesty would be a good start. Andy B could have said .... "When Tony was in charge, we were all Blairites, so a little competition was good. Now we're all Milibandites, so any competition is bad. If we change leader tomorrow ... wait and see."
Patronising the voter is bad, though. We may be thick, but we can often tell when you're saying things you don't really mean. We accept you may have to, but don't assume we're stupid enough not to know the difference.
You and Ms Soubry may be the exception, but if you are - that's why your career in your respective parties may be less than stellar.
Yes, I am a cynic.
https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/screen-shot-2015-01-27-at-23-40-59.png?w=480&h=309
The message he wanted to give last night was clearly "no more outsourcing", but when confronted with the reality that outsourcing might be better for patients he backtracked.
His message is confused and contradictory. No wonder he can't sell it.
Auschwitz is industrial scale murder - 1.9 million people - Dachau is the boutique killing experience.
it is the stuff of nightmares for reasonable people.
Belsen is where Anne Frank was murdered.
Backed Nick
Agree
Red on Lab Majority
Green Con most seats.
No Bet
Ukip votes > Lib Dem
The article is short on facts (River Clyde, aye, right) and dates and I'm not sure they haven't simply rehashed a 2012 story
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/uk-nuclear-deterrent-welcome-wales-2053261
As nobody else has picked up on the story that I can see, I wonder if they simply did a rehash after phoning some contact in Welsh Labour to make it 'news'.
I suspect the unionist propaganda about the tens of thousands of Trident jobs in the glens might backfire somewhat (MoD actual figure: 512 IIRC). Also, the article carefully avoids the issue of where the missile and so on handling/maintenace base actually is, though there will be no doubt lots of one-off work in digging out tunnels in e.g. Worms Head to replace Coulport.
Bit of a non-story in one sense, but it does raise the small matter of what the locals might think, and it might be worth keeping an eye on this if anyone has any bets on the GE in the Milford Haven area.
*depending on the time of month, whether there is a r in the month, etc.
No bet recommended ?
Con: 23
Lab: 28
SNP: 44
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7mknpz7rtf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-270115.pdf
The Scottish Labour leader needs to decide if he is a Blairite reformer or an old-school left-winger
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/alancochrane/11372609/Will-the-real-Jim-Murphy-please-stand-up.html
Of course, as the Nats always tell us, Alan Cochrane writes absolute rubbish......
But of course you know that, and probably enjoyed a little bit making that comment.
Incidentally on the 10pm news last night there was something about Anne Franck dying in Auschwitz, and he father being there too. My recollection was clearly Belsen, although I wasn’t able to look it up last night!
Fantastic article and major PR for PB. We should be seeing some new punters arriving on site
A granddaughter was a teacher on a school party which went to Auschwitz a couple of years ago. She told me that what really broke her was seeing the piles of children’s shoes!
It really gives meaning to the banality of evil - which is truly frightening.
Auschwitz is industrial scale murder - 1.9 million people - Dachau is the boutique killing experience.
it is the stuff of nightmares for reasonable people.
Belsen is where Anne Frank was murdered.
In Dachau there are memorials to all faiths but the Jewish memorial is the most poignant. It leads down a slope into a circular area with a long tall and ever narrowing chimney style structure above. It indicates the only exit those that went into the chambers had. for me stood in that building just put everything today in prospective.
Yet some would deny it and some would have us move on as it is a situation from the past...... But is it? When similar things albeit on much smaller scales continue to occur in Europe we appear as powerless as ever to prevent.
The school parties should continue as a reminder to the young not to make the same mistakes and never forget.
Unless I’m in error, and I’m sure someone here knows, the Japanese atrocities were more in line with the bloodlust shown by humans the world over, and for generations, in the immediate aftermath of the surrender of armies and indeed cities.
Watching the stories about the two Japanese prisoners of ISIL my wife remarked that there was something “odd” about the Japanese complaining about barbarity to prisoners!
However we agreed that there was "more joy in heavan over one sinner which repenteth"