The reason that people are shifting Green from Labour is much as Bakunin stated: "When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the People's Stick"
The Greens are rather millenialist (but if there was world peace and development then free movement of peoples may not be much of an issue) but only the Greens offer an idealism in their manifesto, all other manifestos are just variations on managerialism.
This week's 9 polls produce an average of Con 31.7%, Lab 32.5%, Lib Dem 8.1%, UKIP 14.3%, Green 7.8%.
According to Baxter, on a uniform swing, this would result on Con 276, Lab 326, Lib Dem 19, Nationalist 9, Other 20. Adjusting for current Scottish polling, one could assume 296 Labour, to 39 Nationalist. Adjusting for a boost for incumbency for the Lib Dems, and 5 UKIP gains, the figures would be something like:-
Con 264, Lab 292, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Nationalist 39, Others 20. First time incumbency might boost the Conservative total, and reduce the Labour total, but a lead of 0.8% would still give Labour a slight edge in seats.
Yes. It's a battle between which of the two main parties is in the 290s, versus the 270s.
I think the result will come down to close-fights in around 20 Con-Lab marginal seats.
290-295 is, I think, as good as it gets for either the Conservatives or Labour. My view is the Conservatives need to get about 2% ahead of Labour to get into that range.
re Death Penalty and Londoners support for it/PBers opposition
If a policeman/soldier had seen Rigbys killers decapitate him and shot them there and then, would that have been so bad? Would there have been public outcry?
Ideally the officers of the State shouldn't be armed - after all they are our servants, not our masters and I'd rather not put temptation in their path.
But if they shot them on the scene when there was a threat to them or additional passerbys then that is entirely different
I think this is taking it a bit far. If the officers of the state are regularly faced with violence, we have to give them the ability to ideally deter confrontation, otherwise win it decisively, otherwise a) a lot of policemen will get killed in the line of duty b) it will be even harder to recruit for the police force than it currently is. In this case if the police were not armed the terrorist might have felt like adding a policeman's head to his tally.
Which is why I'm comfortable with them having non-lethal instruments of repression, while having a small number of police with guns
We should only impose the death penalty when we're absolutely sure of guilt? The police were absolutely sure of Colin Stagg's 'guilt' as I recall, not to mention that poor guy whom the tabloids very nearly conspired to fit up for the Joanna Yates murder.
This isn't my argument, but the police are hardly a disinterested party, neither are the tabloids
If a person kills another person with a large knife, in front of multiple witnesses, and stands there covered in blood holding his knife saying that he did it, I think its safe to say he did it.
There was a famous case along these lines.
Two juries found the eldest son of Thomas de Lynch, Provost of Galway, not guilty of murder despite the fact he had motive, opportunity, and was arrested standing over the dead body of his love rival with a bloodied knife in his hand. They were afraid of his father, who was the head of the First Tribe.
Thomas declared martial law and hung his son himself.
Hence "Lynch Law" or, more commonly (albeit less honorably), "lynching"
An elegant red herring. That story doesn't say that he didn't do it, it says that due process wasn't followed. I don't think anyone proposed that due processes wasn't followed. The argument being made, as I understand it, was that having been found guilty by a jury, there are certain crimes, under certain circumstances where you could say there was no question that the accused did it (Lee Rigby) and others where you couldn't say that (Pistorius). In the Rigby case there was the added factor that multiple disinterested witnesses saw the crime in progress.
We should only impose the death penalty when we're absolutely sure of guilt? The police were absolutely sure of Colin Stagg's 'guilt' as I recall, not to mention that poor guy whom the tabloids very nearly conspired to fit up for the Joanna Yates murder.
This isn't my argument, but the police are hardly a disinterested party, neither are the tabloids
If a person kills another person with a large knife, in front of multiple witnesses, and stands there covered in blood holding his knife saying that he did it, I think its safe to say he did it.
There was a famous case along these lines.
Two juries found the eldest son of Thomas de Lynch, Provost of Galway, not guilty of murder despite the fact he had motive, opportunity, and was arrested standing over the dead body of his love rival with a bloodied knife in his hand. They were afraid of his father, who was the head of the First Tribe.
Thomas declared martial law and hung his son himself.
Hence "Lynch Law" or, more commonly (albeit less honorably), "lynching"
Oh, Charles. That's a story we tell tourists. We even built a facade of a building that we pretend contains the window he was hanged out of.
This week's 9 polls produce an average of Con 31.7%, Lab 32.5%, Lib Dem 8.1%, UKIP 14.3%, Green 7.8%.
According to Baxter, on a uniform swing, this would result on Con 276, Lab 326, Lib Dem 19, Nationalist 9, Other 20. Adjusting for current Scottish polling, one could assume 296 Labour, to 39 Nationalist. Adjusting for a boost for incumbency for the Lib Dems, and 5 UKIP gains, the figures would be something like:-
Con 264, Lab 292, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Nationalist 39, Others 20. First time incumbency might boost the Conservative total, and reduce the Labour total, but a lead of 0.8% would still give Labour a slight edge in seats.
Yes. It's a battle between which of the two main parties is in the 290s, versus the 270s.
I think the result will come down to close-fights in around 20 Con-Lab marginal seats.
290-295 is, I think, as good as it gets for either the Conservatives or Labour. My view is the Conservatives need to get about 2% ahead of Labour to get into that range.
We're in for a rough ride.
Labour have gone from c.2.5% ahead at the end of December to 0.8% ahead now.
On a serious note, between the extra subs the new members will bring in, Oakshott's money (he doesnt seem to realise that Caroline will vote *for* an EU referendum, please dont tell him) and, presumably, a bit from Westwood the Green party will have far more resources to through at target seats in 2015 than in 2010.
We should only impose the death penalty when we're absolutely sure of guilt? The police were absolutely sure of Colin Stagg's 'guilt' as I recall, not to mention that poor guy whom the tabloids very nearly conspired to fit up for the Joanna Yates murder.
This isn't my argument, but the police are hardly a disinterested party, neither are the tabloids
If a person kills another person with a large knife, in front of multiple witnesses, and stands there covered in blood holding his knife saying that he did it, I think its safe to say he did it.
There was a famous case along these lines.
Two juries found the eldest son of Thomas de Lynch, Provost of Galway, not guilty of murder despite the fact he had motive, opportunity, and was arrested standing over the dead body of his love rival with a bloodied knife in his hand. They were afraid of his father, who was the head of the First Tribe.
Thomas declared martial law and hung his son himself.
Hence "Lynch Law" or, more commonly (albeit less honorably), "lynching"
Oh, Charles. That's a story we tell tourists. We even built a facade of a building that we pretend contains the window he was hanged out of.
Labour under erosion from all sides and heading for an under Foot trampling at the GE. They reek of political and cultural death.
Apart from the fact they are on target for EICIPM on 8.5.14
Just about. So long as Labour's lead doesn't slip any further.
I know yourself and Casino were confident of a Blue Plurality when i spoke to you at DDs.
The betting markets have certainly got a momentum in that direction since then.
It is going to be a fascinating GE
My view remains that the Conservatives will edge it over Labour, in terms of seats, although falling well short of an overall majority.
But, Ed could still become PM, in my scenario, if Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists were to pass a vote of No Confidence in a Conservative-led government.
Rough Regional Breakdown based on last 6 polls with each pollster (ten for YG )
Scotland
Ashcroft:.............SNP 48 Lab 26 Con 14 LD 5 Grn 3 UK 3 (SNP lead 22) Comres (online)..SNP 46 Lab 23 Con 15 UK 6 Grn 5 LD 4 (SNP lead 23) Ipsos...................SNP 45 Lab 21 Con 19 LD 5 Grn 5 UK 4 (SNP lead 24) Yougov................SNP 43 Lab 27 Con 17 LD 5 UK 5 Grn 4 (SNP lead 16) Comres (phone)..SNP 39 Lab 22 Con 17 LD 8 UK 6 Grn 4 (SNP lead 17) ICM.....................SNP 39 Lab 31 Con 15 UK 7 LD 3 Grn 3 (SNP lead 8) Populus...............SNP 35 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 9 UK 4 Grn 3 (SNP lead 7)
North
Comres (online).. Lab 46 Con 27 UK 18 LD 6 Grn 2 (Lab lead 19) Comres (phone)..Lab 45 Con 20 UK 19 LD 9 Grn 4 (Lab lead 25) Yougov................Lab 45 Con 26 UK 14 Grn 7 LD 6 (Lab lead 19) Populus...............Lab 43 Con 31 UK 14 LD 7 Grn 3 (Lab lead 12) ICM.................... Lab 42 Con 27 UK 12 LD 9 Grn 5 (Lab lead 15) Ipsos...................Lab 41 Con 28 UK 16 LD 7 Grn 6 (Lab lead 13) Ashcroft:.............Lab 38 Con 26 UK 20 Grn 7 LD 6 (Lab lead 12)
This week's 9 polls produce an average of Con 31.7%, Lab 32.5%, Lib Dem 8.1%, UKIP 14.3%, Green 7.8%.
According to Baxter, on a uniform swing, this would result on Con 276, Lab 326, Lib Dem 19, Nationalist 9, Other 20. Adjusting for current Scottish polling, one could assume 296 Labour, to 39 Nationalist. Adjusting for a boost for incumbency for the Lib Dems, and 5 UKIP gains, the figures would be something like:-
Con 264, Lab 292, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Nationalist 39, Others 20. First time incumbency might boost the Conservative total, and reduce the Labour total, but a lead of 0.8% would still give Labour a slight edge in seats.
Yes. It's a battle between which of the two main parties is in the 290s, versus the 270s.
I think the result will come down to close-fights in around 20 Con-Lab marginal seats.
290-295 is, I think, as good as it gets for either the Conservatives or Labour. My view is the Conservatives need to get about 2% ahead of Labour to get into that range.
We're in for a rough ride.
Labour have gone from c.2.5% ahead at the end of December to 0.8% ahead now.
This week's 9 polls produce an average of Con 31.7%, Lab 32.5%, Lib Dem 8.1%, UKIP 14.3%, Green 7.8%.
According to Baxter, on a uniform swing, this would result on Con 276, Lab 326, Lib Dem 19, Nationalist 9, Other 20. Adjusting for current Scottish polling, one could assume 296 Labour, to 39 Nationalist. Adjusting for a boost for incumbency for the Lib Dems, and 5 UKIP gains, the figures would be something like:-
Con 264, Lab 292, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Nationalist 39, Others 20. First time incumbency might boost the Conservative total, and reduce the Labour total, but a lead of 0.8% would still give Labour a slight edge in seats.
Yes. It's a battle between which of the two main parties is in the 290s, versus the 270s.
I think the result will come down to close-fights in around 20 Con-Lab marginal seats.
290-295 is, I think, as good as it gets for either the Conservatives or Labour. My view is the Conservatives need to get about 2% ahead of Labour to get into that range.
We're in for a rough ride.
Labour have gone from c.2.5% ahead at the end of December to 0.8% ahead now.
Wasnt the October lead 0.6%?
Not for the month as a whole, although there may have been a period of days (just after the Conservative conference) where it was.
Rough Regional Breakdown based on last 6 polls with each pollster (ten for YG )
Scotland
Ashcroft:.............SNP 48 Lab 26 Con 14 LD 5 Grn 3 UK 3 (SNP lead 22) Comres (online)..SNP 46 Lab 23 Con 15 UK 6 Grn 5 LD 4 (SNP lead 23) Ipsos...................SNP 45 Lab 21 Con 19 LD 5 Grn 5 UK 4 (SNP lead 24) Yougov................SNP 43 Lab 27 Con 17 LD 5 UK 5 Grn 4 (SNP lead 16) Comres (phone)..SNP 39 Lab 22 Con 17 LD 8 UK 6 Grn 4 (SNP lead 17) ICM.....................SNP 39 Lab 31 Con 15 UK 7 LD 3 Grn 3 (SNP lead 8) Populus...............SNP 35 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 9 UK 4 Grn 3 (SNP lead 7)
North
Comres (online).. Lab 46 Con 27 UK 18 LD 6 Grn 2 (Lab lead 19) Comres (phone)..Lab 45 Con 20 UK 19 LD 9 Grn 4 (Lab lead 25) Yougov................Lab 45 Con 26 UK 14 Grn 7 LD 6 (Lab lead 19) Populus...............Lab 43 Con 31 UK 14 LD 7 Grn 3 (Lab lead 12) ICM.................... Lab 42 Con 27 UK 12 LD 9 Grn 5 (Lab lead 15) Ipsos...................Lab 41 Con 28 UK 16 LD 7 Grn 6 (Lab lead 13) Ashcroft:.............Lab 38 Con 26 UK 20 Grn 7 LD 6 (Lab lead 12)
Thanks,
Bury north at 1-2 for Lab looks safe enough on this.
You have to admire the resourcefulness of our constabulary.
"Instead, he told the court, he struck the mother repeatedly on her left bicep and then decided to try a different approach which he described as a “distraction strike” on the left side of the mother’s face, using his booted foot."
You have to admire the resourcefulness of our constabulary.
"Instead, he told the court, he struck the mother repeatedly on her left bicep and then decided to try a different approach which he described as a “distraction strike” on the left side of the mother’s face, using his booted foot."
@TheWatcher He had to try something, there were only four police officers there to handle the situation? Still, no crime was committed, so it can be ignored, like all the other ones.
You have to admire the resourcefulness of our constabulary.
"Instead, he told the court, he struck the mother repeatedly on her left bicep and then decided to try a different approach which he described as a “distraction strike” on the left side of the mother’s face, using his booted foot."
@TheWatcher He had to try something, there were only four police officers there to handle the situation? Still, no crime was committed, so it can be ignored, like all the other ones.
Luckily for her (and the rest of us), he wasn't armed.
"I decided to try a different approach, and made a 'distraction shot' at her face”
For those not familiar with the case... From the archive, 7 May 1980: Police use unauthorised weapons, Peach jury told
The inquest into the death of Blair Peach, who was killed during a demonstration against the National Front, hears that crime squads often carry pick-axe handles and homemade truncheons
This week's 9 polls produce an average of Con 31.7%, Lab 32.5%, Lib Dem 8.1%, UKIP 14.3%, Green 7.8%.
According to Baxter, on a uniform swing, this would result on Con 276, Lab 326, Lib Dem 19, Nationalist 9, Other 20. Adjusting for current Scottish polling, one could assume 296 Labour, to 39 Nationalist. Adjusting for a boost for incumbency for the Lib Dems, and 5 UKIP gains, the figures would be something like:-
Con 264, Lab 292, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Nationalist 39, Others 20. First time incumbency might boost the Conservative total, and reduce the Labour total, but a lead of 0.8% would still give Labour a slight edge in seats.
Yes. It's a battle between which of the two main parties is in the 290s, versus the 270s.
I think the result will come down to close-fights in around 20 Con-Lab marginal seats.
290-295 is, I think, as good as it gets for either the Conservatives or Labour. My view is the Conservatives need to get about 2% ahead of Labour to get into that range.
We're in for a rough ride.
Labour have gone from c.2.5% ahead at the end of December to 0.8% ahead now.
Wasnt the October lead 0.6%?
No, Labour were 1.8% head in the "Super-ELBOW" for Oct.
August 3.4% September 4.0% October 1.8% November 1.8% December 1.7%
More innovation?... Two police officers who bludgeoned an injured deer to death have been removed from firearms duties after being found guilty of gross misconduct.
Lots of speculation on whether a Labour-SNP deal would hit the rocks over Trident.
As a LD who favours nuclear disarmament on cost-benefit grounds, I've been calling for a referendum for a while, but this may be the only way of Labour and SNP making a deal. As with voting reform which was a Lib Dem red line but the Tories wouldn't budge, the referendum (and the compromised option offered) were the way out.
Is it possible that a referendum for some kind of downgrade could be offered, with both sides free to campaign on their side? With Labour and the Tories strongly for, they would believe they could win comfortably, so it may be a calcuated risk, if the alternative is a second general election?
Lots of speculation on whether a Labour-SNP deal would hit the rocks over Trident.
As a LD who favours nuclear disarmament on cost-benefit grounds, I've been calling for a referendum for a while, but this may be the only way of Labour and SNP making a deal. As with voting reform which was a Lib Dem red line but the Tories wouldn't budge, the referendum (and the compromised option offered) were the way out.
Is it possible that a referendum for some kind of downgrade could be offered, with both sides free to campaign on their side? With Labour and the Tories strongly for, they would believe they could win comfortably, so it may be a calcuated risk, if the alternative is a second general election?
I'm of the view that if we are going to have referenda, they should be limited to matters constitutional. We live in a representative democracy, and our representatives should be making these decisions, not palming off the responsibility to us.
Lots of speculation on whether a Labour-SNP deal would hit the rocks over Trident.
As a LD who favours nuclear disarmament on cost-benefit grounds, I've been calling for a referendum for a while, but this may be the only way of Labour and SNP making a deal. As with voting reform which was a Lib Dem red line but the Tories wouldn't budge, the referendum (and the compromised option offered) were the way out.
Is it possible that a referendum for some kind of downgrade could be offered, with both sides free to campaign on their side? With Labour and the Tories strongly for, they would believe they could win comfortably, so it may be a calcuated risk, if the alternative is a second general election?
Scrap Trident for Scotland (Move submarines from Clyde, make it clear the deterrent won't be used for them & eliminate their share of the costs for it) ?
Or alternatively you can put the decision for an attack on Glasgow in Sturgon's hands as to whether Trident should be deployed, iff the attack is on Scotland or Scottish waters and if she has a change of heart as the North Korean nuke sails down on Scotland Scotland will be liable to be immediately backcharged costs + interest + a 30% "detterance premium" or so forth.
if she has a change of heart as the North Korean nuke sails down on Scotland Scotland will be liable to be immediately backcharged costs + interest + a 30% "detterance premium" or so forth.
If the nuke is already on the way then deterrence can hardly be said to have worked, can it?
Tbh I'm not sure a nuclear detterrent is all that useful any more - the Soviet Union certainly valued it's own preservation, whereas if ISIS got hold of nukes (God forbid) London would go up in a cry of "Alahu Akbar" and they wouldn't give a toss if Baghdad was obliterated in return.
if she has a change of heart as the North Korean nuke sails down on Scotland Scotland will be liable to be immediately backcharged costs + interest + a 30% "detterance premium" or so forth.
If the nuke is already on the way then deterrence can hardly be said to have worked, can it?
Tbh I'm not sure a nuclear detterrent is all that useful any more - the Soviet Union certainly valued it's own preservation, whereas if ISIS got hold of nukes (God forbid) London would go up in a cry of "Alahu Akbar" and they wouldn't give a toss if Baghdad was obliterated in return.
Lots of speculation on whether a Labour-SNP deal would hit the rocks over Trident.
As a LD who favours nuclear disarmament on cost-benefit grounds, I've been calling for a referendum for a while, but this may be the only way of Labour and SNP making a deal. As with voting reform which was a Lib Dem red line but the Tories wouldn't budge, the referendum (and the compromised option offered) were the way out.
Is it possible that a referendum for some kind of downgrade could be offered, with both sides free to campaign on their side? With Labour and the Tories strongly for, they would believe they could win comfortably, so it may be a calcuated risk, if the alternative is a second general election?
Very interesting point (which is also applicable to other points of conflict). I'd suspect Mr Miliband would go for issue by issue negotiation rather than lose his imperial pretensions, but who knows?
It would be potentially very damaging to Labour in Scotland to have the issues aired far more thoroughly than they have been of late, not least the fact that SLAB were, and still are, bitterly opposed to Trident (from voting records as MSPs). But if the SNP were in that position anyway, it would only be making the SLAB rubble bounce, to borrow a phrase from the 1960s ...
A work question which someone here may know - the director of a company breeding beagles in Brescia has just been given a 2.5 year prison sentence for cruelty and unlawful killing of dogs (it's relevant for Britain as she's also a director of a British-based company seeking to develop beagle production in Britain). Someone advises that in Italy, sentences under 4 years never lead to prison custody. Is that Right? What does it then mean?
if she has a change of heart as the North Korean nuke sails down on Scotland Scotland will be liable to be immediately backcharged costs + interest + a 30% "detterance premium" or so forth.
If the nuke is already on the way then deterrence can hardly be said to have worked, can it?
Or, demonstrated that it had, as they were only attacked after they abrogated Trident.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
A work question which someone here may know - the director of a company breeding beagles in Brescia has just been given a 2.5 year prison sentence for cruelty and unlawful killing of dogs (it's relevant for Britain as she's also a director of a British-based company seeking to develop beagle production in Britain). Someone advises that in Italy, sentences under 4 years never lead to prison custody. Is that Right? What does it then mean?
Are they suspended, such that if you are naughty again, you go straight to the slammer?
When's Ashcroft's Scottish polling coming out btw ?
Interesting piece from Alan Cochrane about the status of the stop Salmond campaign, he does mention a rumoured poll showing Salmond ahead of the LibDems by a margin of 2:1, perhaps this is a sign that the polls are finally underway.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
A 2% drop with ICM over a year is hardly dramatic. Opinium is giving Labour the same share - 33% - as last May some 8 months ago.
I only seriously looked at the Greens in ELBOW at the start of the year, but I have gone through all previous weeks from Xmas going back as far as August and have now updated all of them with Green scores.
When's Ashcroft's Scottish polling coming out btw ?
Interesting piece from Alan Cochrane about the status of the stop Salmond campaign, he does mention a rumoured poll showing Salmond ahead of the LibDems by a margin of 2:1, perhaps this is a sign that the polls are finally underway.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
As you say an interesting piece by Cochrane-probably made more revealing by him untypically not seeming to allow comments on it. He usually reserves that no comment approach for his most unconvincing pieces. I suspect even he knows Salmond will win.
Among the other guff that Cochrane writes in the article, he says of Salmond
"And as if he didn’t have enough advantages, he’s also been given a regular weekly column in the local newspaper – a facility not granted to any of his opponents in Gordon."
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Tbh I'm not sure a nuclear detterrent is all that useful any more - the Soviet Union certainly valued it's own preservation, whereas if ISIS got hold of nukes (God forbid) London would go up in a cry of "Alahu Akbar" and they wouldn't give a toss if Baghdad was obliterated in return.
It's potentially positively dangerous: The point of 9/11 was to provoke a response that would further the terrorists' agenda, and strategically it was ultimately incredibly successful at doing that (on a personal level maybe not so much, as a faction that split off from Al Qaeda ended up with the ball, while OBL ended up with a bullet in his head.) The nuclear version is an attack on a nuclear-armed country that provokes a retaliatory attack on someone, and the resulting polarization and instability helps the terrorists who planned the original attack.
Note that this doesn't have to be the most likely result for the nuclear deterrent to turn into a nuclear incitement: The adversary just has to think it will work, even if it won't.
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Do local papers tend to come out for one political party come the election? I honestly thought they were a tad more neutral than the national papers.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Do local papers tend to come out for one political party come the election? I honestly thought they were a tad more neutral than the national papers.
The P&J tended towards No before the referendum, their decision to have Salmond write a column is just showbiz. Who's going to read a column by, eg, any Scottish LD?
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Do local papers tend to come out for one political party come the election? I honestly thought they were a tad more neutral than the national papers.
The P&J tended towards No before the referendum, their decision to have Salmond write a column is just showbiz. Who's going to read a column by, eg, any Scottish LD?
I'd argue that the indyref was different, being a (supposedly) once-in-a-lifetime event.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Do local papers tend to come out for one political party come the election? I honestly thought they were a tad more neutral than the national papers.
The P&J tended towards No before the referendum, their decision to have Salmond write a column is just showbiz. Who's going to read a column by, eg, any Scottish LD?
I'd argue that the indyref was different, being a (supposedly) once-in-a-lifetime event.
Yep, but all I'm saying is having Salmond write for them isn't the P&J coming out for the SNP.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Do local papers tend to come out for one political party come the election? I honestly thought they were a tad more neutral than the national papers.
The P&J tended towards No before the referendum, their decision to have Salmond write a column is just showbiz. Who's going to read a column by, eg, any Scottish LD?
I'd argue that the indyref was different, being a (supposedly) once-in-a-lifetime event.
Yep, but all I'm saying is having Salmond write for them isn't the P&J coming out for the SNP.
Maybe not officially (via their opinion pieces), but it'll certainly look that way. I do take your point that no one would be particularly interested in the musing of a Scottish LD, or the one Scottish Tory (or are there two now, I forget).
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
I'll update it on Sunday (hopefully) when the YG/Sunday Times comes out. Mine only goes back to August.
I need to go back and get all the green numbers input.. saying that, I just can't be arsed.
I conveniently saw that in Mid-July a TNS poll still combined the Greens with "Others", so I thought "can't get an accurate Green score for July - oh well!"
Is there any way to tell from the data what political issues motivate those who are suddenly declaring their support for the Green Party?
My strong gut feel is that these people are more interested in social justice than environmental issues and that what we're seeing is largely a left-wing anti-politics movement. These are people left behind by the Labour Party.
But is there yet *data* that supports or contradicts that view? Or which provides more nuance?
Many thanks in advance for any info any of you might have to share
Yours
JamesF
Imagine if you're right, this vote is very soft. The Greens will be squeezed hard come polling day if Labour look within sight of beating the Tories. If Labour are out of the game by then, the Greens could do very well.
As I said on Twitter, Labour should be handing out the Green Manifesto on every street corner. It is utterly insane, Maoism withwind turbines, They want an end to economic growth, permanent recession, taxes on holidays, a citizens income for everyone (funded by borrowing?), abolition of the monarchy, mass immigration with almost no control, the virtual end of the army and navy, encouragement of abortions, freedom to join Al Qaeda and the IRA, defence bases turned into allotments, on and on an on. Frothing, hectoring, eco-communist gibberish.
If their supporters were only vaguely aware of what Greens really think their support would briskly slide from 10% to 1% and Labour would get a nice boost.
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
Smithson you put too much store in the polls according to the drivel you write, just approach the political parties who privately poll the marginal seats and you will see a completely different picture. Why swamp your blog with ifs and maybe's because the public pollsters have not got a clue but you slavishly follow them Ask the troops on the ground for a TRUTHFUL appraisal of what is happening
If a policeman/soldier had seen Rigbys killers decapitate him and shot them there and then, would that have been so bad?
It could potentially have been very bad for the policeman - you could be talking about manslaughter / murder charges and a lot of time behind bars. Ah, who am I kidding, there wouldnt be any charges!
If the PC stated that he had concerns for the safety of the public no jury would convict.
Rather than the death penalty, we should re-establish our south seas penal colony, in the Falklands this time. No internet or TV, no visitors, just breaking rocks all day. They wouldn't like it.
"BNP leader Nick Griffin insisted the manifesto contained nothing new on immigration with a central policy of "shutting the doors" because "Britain is full", but the document contained other bizarre proposals such as setting up a "penal station" in the Falklands where dangerous and violent repeat offenders would be sent to carry out labouring work.
Asked about the proposal for a "penal station" in South Georgia, he said: "There's a certain element within the criminal population – the hard core, the murders or the rapists and so on – who simply could not be let loose even on the hills of Wales or whatever, digging trenches to put internet cables in. What are we going to do with them?
"Well, the Falklands is surrounded not only by fish but also oil and it's Britain's, and we need to develop it and we need to develop it fast. There is plenty of work to be done out there establishing a groundwork for that, which is pure labouring work.
"We don't see why criminals who commit the most appalling crimes should be able to be locked away in relative luxury in British prisons, enjoying a better standard of living than pensioners, when they could be somewhere out there working.
"South Georgia is a long way away, they can't escape, but they can do something useful for Britain and the British economy."
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
I'll update it on Sunday (hopefully) when the YG/Sunday Times comes out. Mine only goes back to August.
I need to go back and get all the green numbers input.. saying that, I just can't be arsed.
I conveniently saw that in Mid-July a TNS poll still combined the Greens with "Others", so I thought "can't get an accurate Green score for July - oh well!"
This is why my UKIP values are like a yoyo in 2011, some pollsters were regularly giving their values, while some where not. So you get this fluctuation between UKIP and others. Oh well!
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Do local papers tend to come out for one political party come the election? I honestly thought they were a tad more neutral than the national papers.
The P&J tended towards No before the referendum, their decision to have Salmond write a column is just showbiz. Who's going to read a column by, eg, any Scottish LD?
I'd argue that the indyref was different, being a (supposedly) once-in-a-lifetime event.
Yep, but all I'm saying is having Salmond write for them isn't the P&J coming out for the SNP.
Maybe not officially (via their opinion pieces), but it'll certainly look that way. I do take your point that no one would be particularly interested in the musing of a Scottish LD, or the one Scottish Tory (or are there two now, I forget).
Or the (admittedly now Norwegian Blue) Northumbria Party leader, whom SLAB have borrowed ...
'What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year'
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery. Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
I think if you look at the chart trends you will see a clear Labour drop..I can't remember who posted a great chart, but it was absolutely clear what was happening. Labour down, Tories up a tad, UKIP up a lot, greens risen a bit.
Labour weekly leads since August: twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I was talking not about the lead, but the absolute %'s. Somebody put a rolling average chart of all the parties, and it was crystal clear the changes over the past 12 months.
I think Sunil has an equivalent with a slightly different averaging scheme, but here you go:
Comments
Btw the Lib Dem score may well also be worse than it appears with Populus too. That 9 is probably an 8.
The Greens are rather millenialist (but if there was world peace and development then free movement of peoples may not be much of an issue) but only the Greens offer an idealism in their manifesto, all other manifestos are just variations on managerialism.
He's lived off the taxpayer so long he probably doesn;t give a t8ss
http://greenparty.org.uk/news/2015/01/23/vivienne-westwood-vote-green-2015!/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
On a serious note, between the extra subs the new members will bring in, Oakshott's money (he doesnt seem to realise that Caroline will vote *for* an EU referendum, please dont tell him) and, presumably, a bit from Westwood the Green party will have far more resources to through at target seats in 2015 than in 2010.
The betting markets have certainly got a momentum in that direction since then.
It is going to be a fascinating GE
You're the core Labour demographic, a retired public sector paper pusher headed for the exit.
Con demographic are the coffin dodgers from the Golden generation aren't they?
But, Ed could still become PM, in my scenario, if Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists were to pass a vote of No Confidence in a Conservative-led government.
Scotland
Ashcroft:.............SNP 48 Lab 26 Con 14 LD 5 Grn 3 UK 3 (SNP lead 22)
Comres (online)..SNP 46 Lab 23 Con 15 UK 6 Grn 5 LD 4 (SNP lead 23)
Ipsos...................SNP 45 Lab 21 Con 19 LD 5 Grn 5 UK 4 (SNP lead 24)
Yougov................SNP 43 Lab 27 Con 17 LD 5 UK 5 Grn 4 (SNP lead 16)
Comres (phone)..SNP 39 Lab 22 Con 17 LD 8 UK 6 Grn 4 (SNP lead 17)
ICM.....................SNP 39 Lab 31 Con 15 UK 7 LD 3 Grn 3 (SNP lead 8)
Populus...............SNP 35 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 9 UK 4 Grn 3 (SNP lead 7)
North
Comres (online).. Lab 46 Con 27 UK 18 LD 6 Grn 2 (Lab lead 19)
Comres (phone)..Lab 45 Con 20 UK 19 LD 9 Grn 4 (Lab lead 25)
Yougov................Lab 45 Con 26 UK 14 Grn 7 LD 6 (Lab lead 19)
Populus...............Lab 43 Con 31 UK 14 LD 7 Grn 3 (Lab lead 12)
ICM.................... Lab 42 Con 27 UK 12 LD 9 Grn 5 (Lab lead 15)
Ipsos...................Lab 41 Con 28 UK 16 LD 7 Grn 6 (Lab lead 13)
Ashcroft:.............Lab 38 Con 26 UK 20 Grn 7 LD 6 (Lab lead 12)
Yep and its people such as yourself that make it fascinating, Mr BJO. Truly.
Bury north at 1-2 for Lab looks safe enough on this.
Midlands
Comres (online).. Con 39 Lab 29 UK 21 LD 7 Grn 2 (Tory lead 10)
Ipsos...................Con 37 Lab 31 UK 16 LD 7 Grn 7 (Tory lead 6)
Comres (phone)..Con 36 Lab 26 UK 23 LD 10 Grn 4 (Tory lead 10)
Populus...............Con 35 Lab 33 UK 17 LD 8 Grn 6 (Tory lead 2)
Ashcroft:.............Con 32 Lab 27 UK 22 LD 8 Grn 8 (Tory lead 5)
ICM.................... Con 34 Lab 36 UK 15 LD 7 Grn 6 (Labour lead 2)
Midlands/Wales
Yougov................Lab 35 Con 32 UK 18 Grn 6 LD 6 (Labour lead 3)
Wales
ICM....................Lab 47 Con 19 UK 8 Grn 6 LD 4 (Labour lead 28)
Wales/SW
Populus...............Con 37 Lab 32 UK 14 LD 10 Grn 5 (Tory lead 5)
Comres (phone)..Con 33 Lab 24 UK 17 LD 14 Grn 7 (Tory lead 9)
Ashcroft..............Con 30 Lab 29 UK 18 LD 9 Grn 8 (Tory lead 1)
Comres (Online)..Lab 34 Con 29 UK 20 LD 10 Grn 4 (Labour lead 5)
South
Yougov...............Con 40 Lab 23 UK 18 LD 10 Grn 8 (Tory lead 17)
Ipsos...................Con 36 Lab 29 UK 14 LD 11 Grn 8 (Tory lead 7)
ICM.................... Con 34 Lab 31 UK 15 LD 10 Grn 8 (Tory lead 3)
South East
Populus...............Con 39 Lab 33 UK 12 LD 11 Grn 6 (Tory lead 6)
Comres (online).. Con 37 Lab 33 UK 18 LD 9 Grn 4 (Tory lead 4)
Ashcroft:.............Con 35 Lab 29 UK 17 LD 9 Grn 9 (Tory lead 6)
Comres (phone)..Con 33 Lab 33 UK 17 LD 8 Grn 8 (Tory/Labour
London
Ipsos…................Lab 41 Con 28 LD 10 Grn 10 UK 8 (Lab lead 13)
Yougov…………....Lab 37 Con 32 UK 13 LD 8 Grn 8 (Lab led 5)
"Instead, he told the court, he struck the mother repeatedly on her left bicep and then decided to try a different approach which he described as a “distraction strike” on the left side of the mother’s face, using his booted foot."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/22/met-police-warren-luke-cleared-kicking-mother-child-hospital
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
WTF. Who on earth thought it a good idea to incorporate kicking people's heads into police training? I find this hard to believe.
He had to try something, there were only four police officers there to handle the situation?
Still, no crime was committed, so it can be ignored, like all the other ones.
"I decided to try a different approach, and made a 'distraction shot' at her face”
To paraphrase Not the Nine O'clock news...
" Blair Peach committed grievous bodily suicide on the police while in custody"
Well, excluding Populus, I make it a LibDem lead of only 0.16%!
Could LDs stay at this level and still win 30 seats? They seem to think so...
From the archive, 7 May 1980: Police use unauthorised weapons, Peach jury told
The inquest into the death of Blair Peach, who was killed during a demonstration against the National Front, hears that crime squads often carry pick-axe handles and homemade truncheons
http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2014/may/07/blair-peach-inquest-police-weapons
August 3.4%
September 4.0%
October 1.8%
November 1.8%
December 1.7%
January so far 1.3%
Damn! 0.5% LibDem lead over Greens in ELBOW so far this week, inc. Populus
Week-ending 11th Jan 2015: 1.3% LD lead
Week-ending 18th Jan 2015: 0.9%% LD lead
Week-ending 25th Jan 2015 (so far): 0.5% LD lead
Two police officers who bludgeoned an injured deer to death have been removed from firearms duties after being found guilty of gross misconduct.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-30947899
Probably trying to distract it?
As a LD who favours nuclear disarmament on cost-benefit grounds, I've been calling for a referendum for a while, but this may be the only way of Labour and SNP making a deal. As with voting reform which was a Lib Dem red line but the Tories wouldn't budge, the referendum (and the compromised option offered) were the way out.
Is it possible that a referendum for some kind of downgrade could be offered, with both sides free to campaign on their side? With Labour and the Tories strongly for, they would believe they could win comfortably, so it may be a calcuated risk, if the alternative is a second general election?
Week-ending 11th Jan 2015: 1.1% Lab lead
Week-ending 18th Jan 2015: 1.6%% Lab lead
Week-ending 25th Jan 2015 (so far): 1.0% Lab lead
DUP leader Peter Robinson said he would write to the BBC and ITV to find out why his party has not been included in those taking part in the debates.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30949900
I mean it really is just utter chaos now.
It would be potentially very damaging to Labour in Scotland to have the issues aired far more thoroughly than they have been of late, not least the fact that SLAB were, and still are, bitterly opposed to Trident (from voting records as MSPs). But if the SNP were in that position anyway, it would only be making the SLAB rubble bounce, to borrow a phrase from the 1960s ...
(36-33)/36 = 0.083
(9-8)/9 = 0.1111
There is a danger of being a little YouGov centric because of the frequency of their polls. ICM has not shown the same fall in the Labour vote over the last 12 months - 35% in Jan 2014 33% Jan 2015 having been lower in Autumn 2014. Populus - and to a slightly lesser extent Opinium - has also shown little change. MORI has been more supportive of YouGov although its methodology is very different and its latest data shows some Labour recovery.
Worth remembering again that the official election campaign period tends to favour the Opposition - on which basis the Tories now have barely 2 months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11361448/The-battle-to-keep-Alex-Salmond-out-of-Westminster.html
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
#GreenSurge https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/558278855988117506
As you say an interesting piece by Cochrane-probably made more revealing by him untypically not seeming to allow comments on it. He usually reserves that no comment approach for his most unconvincing pieces. I suspect even he knows Salmond will win.
Among the other guff that Cochrane writes in the article, he says of Salmond
"And as if he didn’t have enough advantages, he’s also been given a regular weekly column in the local newspaper – a facility not granted to any of his opponents in Gordon."
Mind blowing hypocrisy-unlike many other papers I cannot readily recall any pro-independence writer being allowed to write even a single article in the Telegraph.
Note that this doesn't have to be the most likely result for the nuclear deterrent to turn into a nuclear incitement: The adversary just has to think it will work, even if it won't.
"What's the equivalent of Labour in NI? Left-of-centre and Unionist? Is there one?"
I have always assumed that is the SDLP.
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Yes. I think you are right. SDLP does favour a United Ireland, which I suppose makes them Unionist, but only in a Jim Murphy sort of way :-)
Ask the troops on the ground for a TRUTHFUL appraisal of what is happening