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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest polls bring just a little bit of relief for LAB but it’s going to be a struggle to win most seats
At the end of a week that has seen the worst LAB polling shares since GE10 the latest two polls from Populus and YouGov will come as something of a relief. As can be seen leads of 4% and 2% are recorded.
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http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/labour-burns-supper-axed-due-to-lack-of-interest-1-3668811#.VMDyPdxtfDI.twitter
Is there any way to tell from the data what political issues motivate those who are suddenly declaring their support for the Green Party?
My strong gut feel is that these people are more interested in social justice than environmental issues and that what we're seeing is largely a left-wing anti-politics movement. These are people left behind by the Labour Party.
But is there yet *data* that supports or contradicts that view? Or which provides more nuance?
Many thanks in advance for any info any of you might have to share
Yours
JamesF
As do the markets, it seems. No way the tories and labour would be level pegging on seats if speculators believed that poll.
If a policeman/soldier had seen Rigbys killers decapitate him and shot them there and then, would that have been so bad? Would there have been public outcry?
Which in my view brings Con Most Seats, Lab most votes into play.
Con ........ 283 (unchanged)
Lab.......... 278 (- 3 seats)
LibDem .... 23 (-3 seats)
Others ..... 66* (+6 seats)
* Comprises SNP 41, Plaid Cymru 3, UKIP 3,Greens 1, N.I. 18 = 66 seats. The modest increase in SNP wins over the past week suggests there ha been a further modification to their model in this regard.
If a person kills another person with a large knife, in front of multiple witnesses, and stands there covered in blood holding his knife saying that he did it, I think its safe to say he did it.
It seems to me the penalty we have given rigby's killers - 45 years of staring at four walls - could be construed to be a more harsh penalty than a martyr's death.
Maybe it would be better for all concerned if we gave certain criminals the option of a death sentence if they want it.
Since the killers were brandishing knives at the police, then no.
Absolutely.
England only polling, please!
Who is Judas?
Rather than the death penalty, we should re-establish our south seas penal colony, in the Falklands this time. No internet or TV, no visitors, just breaking rocks all day. They wouldn't like it.
Asked about the proposal for a "penal station" in South Georgia, he said: "There's a certain element within the criminal population – the hard core, the murders or the rapists and so on – who simply could not be let loose even on the hills of Wales or whatever, digging trenches to put internet cables in. What are we going to do with them?
"Well, the Falklands is surrounded not only by fish but also oil and it's Britain's, and we need to develop it and we need to develop it fast. There is plenty of work to be done out there establishing a groundwork for that, which is pure labouring work.
"We don't see why criminals who commit the most appalling crimes should be able to be locked away in relative luxury in British prisons, enjoying a better standard of living than pensioners, when they could be somewhere out there working.
"South Georgia is a long way away, they can't escape, but they can do something useful for Britain and the British economy."
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/local-stories/bnp-publish-plans-for-penal-colony-in-the-falkland-islands-1-2571988
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517389/Moment-police-shoot-men-murdered-soldier-Lee-Rigby-Woolwich.html
The short answer to your question is 'no'.
The Greens until very recently have been polling in the very low single digits, so it wouldn't make sense statistically (sample size too small) to break out their attitudes as is done for the bigger parties. If they maintain their current position we may start seeing breakouts of attitude.
I think your hypothesis is not unreasonable - we know 'Europe' is an important, but not the main motivator for UKIP voters, for example, so it wouldn't surprise me if 'Greenery' was a lightning rod for other more general dissatisfaction with the status quo.
The 'None of the Above' party was until the coalition the Lib Dems - who saw their NOTA vote peel off quickly once they sullied their hands with the inevitable compromises of power. After them UKIP became the NOTA party - and now the Greens are an alternative to the left, so they are probably picking up voters from Labour, the Lib Dems and UKIP.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/exclusive-mark-hoban-standing-down/
The death penalty is a foolish fight for law and order types to push. Locking up the worst criminals and throwing away the key, however, is highly popular.
Not surprising really, since the Greens have failed to learn the lesson of a century of economic experiments with various forms of communism. They're the sort of people that see a new invention working and ask "ah, but does it work in THEORY"...
SNP 2.10
Liberal Democrats 2.87
Conservatives 3.50
I'm almost tempted by a punt on the Conservatives.
My only concern is for the penguins...
Publicising Green Party policies is not going to scare away their new supporters - it is much more likely to attract a further increase in support. Not enough to overtake UKIP, without changing some minds, but enough to be getting on with.
1) Its not what the public wants, if you believe in direct democracy, they will get what they want sooner or later.
2) Its against the law and treaty (ECHR) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/indefinite-sentences-ruled-unlawful-8152209.html
3) Its incredibly expensive, around £40k per year (so about £2.5m over the length of the sentence) per prisoner. It would additionally require a massive jail building program at additional expense. Both these would be hugely unpopular with the voters.
I expected more infighting in the SNP and recriminations, but may need a bit more time.
It is possible that the SNP may come up with a more credible indy manifesto in time...
Greens have the most popular policies (based on 2010 manifestos), have a go yourself and see how you score.
Lets be careful we don't invent strawmen (perish the thought)
According to Baxter, on a uniform swing, this would result on Con 276, Lab 326, Lib Dem 19, Nationalist 9, Other 20. Adjusting for current Scottish polling, one could assume 296 Labour, to 39 Nationalist. Adjusting for a boost for incumbency for the Lib Dems, and 5 UKIP gains, the figures would be something like:-
Con 264, Lab 292, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Nationalist 39, Others 20. First time incumbency might boost the Conservative total, and reduce the Labour total, but a lead of 0.8% would still give Labour a slight edge in seats.
*splutters*
"Although sustained anti-Lib Dem rhetoric has helped stop a resurgence in their vote, losses to Ukip since 2010 have been met by trying to meet Nigel Farage halfway on immigration. "
How on Earth does this myth continue to propagate. The Conservatives have allowed immigration to increase on their watch, and have dropped any limits to it for their EU renegotiation. That's not meeting UKIP halfway. That's talking the talk and not actually doing anything about it.
The reason they've failed to make an impact on UKIP's rising poll share is because they haven't actually done anything major.
Currently the 3 parties combined have 321 seats. Now if the SNP surge as the polls show this is not going to affect this total as they will be mainly taking seats from Lib+Lab. If they take the Tories 1 seat then we move up to 322
Now if LD lose 10 seats each to Lab and Con this actually reduces the combined total to 312.
Lab now need to gain 14 seats from Con to gain a notional majority of 1. If we say they gain 30-40 seats then that gives them a majority of 16-26.
Now bearing in mind that the Coalition has had a majority of 40 odd and has still had a number of prominent defeats, and bearing in mind that John Major's Government started off with a majority of 21 and barely made it to the election, it wouldn't take many by-election defeats or backbench rebellions to bring the whole thing down.
And of course that assumes all 3 parties sign up to it. I can't see any remaining SLAB MPs being chummy with the SNP, and some English MPs may well have concerns too.
I'm
-£75 Lib Dem
+£30 SNP
+£18.75 Cons
on this seat now.
Tony Blair Office @tonyblairoffice 3 hrs3 hours ago
“He was loved by his people and will be deeply missed.” Tony Blair on the death of King Abdullah. http://goo.gl/R6Xchq
Con Home.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/01/now-mark-hoban-is-to-leave-the-commons-which-other-able-former-minister-will-be-next.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter
It looks like there has been a decrease in the YouGov sample sizes. If you take the last full week YouGov polls in November, they had sample sizes of:
2,018
1,970
2,067
1,890
1,641
Mean = 1,917
Take the most recent full week (ie ending on a Sunday) and the sample sizes were:
1,647
1,763
1,660
1,834
1,782
1,649
Mean = 1,723
I wonder whether the reduction, by about 10%, is a case of trimming costs slightly or because people in their panel are becoming less likely to respond to invitations to complete the polls for some reason.
It wasn't uncommon for the first YouGov of the week to have a smaller sample, but it's intriguing. This was supposed to be the time when people started to make up their minds about politics (as OGH quoted Ashcroft as saying), but if the change is down to reduced response rates then it would suggest people are even less interested than they were last autumn.
http://www.markhoban.com/news/mark-hoban-step-down-parliament-may
"Greens have the most popular policies (based on 2010 manifestos), have a go yourself and see how you score."
I came out as a definite anti-green. However, should the nation democratically vote them in, I would accept it. But I'd head for the hills and bags the best cave. One with a constant temperature and access to wildlife I could kill and eat.
I'm sure they mean well, though, and that Neil seems like a nice man.
I think the result will come down to close-fights in around 20 Con-Lab marginal seats.
Normally an ICM phone poll takes 3 days.
The December phone poll took 5 days to get the 1,000 respondents, the January poll took 4 days to get 1,000 respondents.
November and prior it took 3 days.
Reading the comments here gives an insight into the Green mentality.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/22/labour-green-surge-renationalise-railways-living-wage-pr-referendum
thank you for the various bits of information and C, for your welcome.
JF
But if they shot them on the scene when there was a threat to them or additional passerbys then that is entirely different
Less interested, or more unsure? . Those who are unsure are less likely to respond to pollsters requests.
(in all probability it will be some combination of the two)
In the real world labour can barely hold on in Bolsover. That's a vote blue, get ed lesson, if ever there was one.
Labour's crutch is starting to go Green.
"You've just saved yourself from being up against the wall when the revolution comes"
Which way will those against the wall be facing?
^_^
I think the other issue is, a lot more supplementaries are being asked, as we approach the election.
If you've taken part in a YouGov brand index poll and then finishing answering the supplementaries to a VI poll, you do wonder if you might die of cellular ennui.
What is interesting to me is that Populus still have Labour up at 35/36%. All the other pollsters have them now in the 32% range, with the clear trend that their support has been consistently dropping over the past year, and hence why YouGov and ICM bods have been quoted as saying they think Labour will only get ~30% come the GE.
Is there something about the way Populus polls / weights that is different, that can explain this Labour getting this higher %?
Engels is safe as houses here but will UKIP or the Cons come 2nd ?
Two juries found the eldest son of Thomas de Lynch, Provost of Galway, not guilty of murder despite the fact he had motive, opportunity, and was arrested standing over the dead body of his love rival with a bloodied knife in his hand. They were afraid of his father, who was the head of the First Tribe.
Thomas declared martial law and hung his son himself.
Hence "Lynch Law" or, more commonly (albeit less honorably), "lynching"
I would think that, as a supporter of UKIP, you would be well aware that there are many voters now who won't be scared off supporting a new party by scare-mongering about one or two policies in isolation.
We'll find out in May whether they are overdoing their weightings.
Oh I don;t know, I think the legalising membership of al qaeda policy might swing it for you in a few places.