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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections: January 22nd 2014 – Harry Hayfield
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections: January 22nd 2014 – Harry Hayfield
Kirkcaldy East on Fife (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 35, Scottish Nationalists 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Conservatives 3, Independents 3, Non Party Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5)
Result of ward at last election (2012):
0
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Do you now believe that the consistent evidence from the polls is correct. The SNP surge is real lo even unto fortress Kirkcaldy, that it has nothing to do with the nationality of phone pollsters, that it is reflected in local elections, valid polls and party membership. Is it now game , set and match to we believers.
Not the cup final. Just the first leg!
Really...The BBC seems very uninterested in this. I can't even find that fact that the Mirror had to make a large series of payouts today.
Voters in Scotland are also sympathetic to the principle that Scottish MPs be prevented from voting on matters that have no direct impact on Scotland.
The poll found that 27% of Scots "strongly support" EVEL and a further 24% "tend to support" it, putting overall backing for the measure at 51%. Eighteen percent "strongly oppose" such a move while 12% "tend to oppose", totalling 30% in opposition. Fourteen percent said they neither supported nor opposed the policy.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/307531-stv-ipsos-mori-poll-on-smith-commission-and-english-votes-for-english-laws/
https://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates/Crute_Duncan.aspx
Wasn't the theory of no SNP surge based on the work of a former Tory MP?
Iain very bravely makes predictions for every seat in the UK here:
iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/29/general-election-predictions-the-complete-list
But I suspect that @scotslass is conflating Iain and Rob's work.
A quick check reveals that our host was relying on the work of former Tory MP, Mike Hayward. I have never detected any pro or indeed anti Labour sympathy from Mike just a bucket load of anti SNP sympathy.
I'm on my way to work in a train which always gets me thinking. Is it possible that one of the many reasons for Labour's Scottish malaise is that Murphy is - and I know this will come across as sexist - profoundly unattractive in his maner and presentation ie does Labour now have a women problem?
Meanwhile .... Standing German men can still take the piss :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30937492
What the SNP really wants is Mr Cameron back in No 10 http://tgr.ph/1JqKscm
"The only goal that matters to the SNP is independence – and that means assembling a narrative of a Scotland suing for divorce on the grounds of irreconcilable political differences. Without a villain, Ms Sturgeon will not have much of a pantomime; so she needs Cameron, the Old Etonian with a Brasenose First, as prime minister. Ideally in coalition with Nigel Farage. And most of all, she wants his in-or-out referendum on the European Union. If England votes to leave and Scotland to stay, it would induce the constitutional crisis that the SNP needs. This is the new road map to independence.
But for now, the SNP needs to win as many seats as possible – which means publicly entertaining the idea of coalition with Ed Miliband. Polls show that such an alliance would be the most popular election result in Scotland – which is precisely why, in the end, Ms Sturgeon can’t allow it to happen"
On the current MORI figures Swinney is plus 16 among women, Harvie plus 10 but Murphy minus 1. And so as I go into work is it possible that Murphy's lack of appeal is a further problem for Labour. They do look at best old fashioned and at worst like machine politicians from a bygone age!
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30933790
Their job is to hold the executive (who should be sorting the problems) to account. It's irrelevant whether the specific problem is one part of the country or other - it's good that the executive should be beaten up and cowed from time to time pour les encourager les autres
[Note: this recipe includes a healthy dash of idealism]
Federer was also in Murray's half of the draw so a good result for the Scot. Nadal plays last today and his form is patchy. He is also in Murray's half.
In the last sixteen Murray plays Dimitrov which is likely to be a much tougher match.
Their key policies appear to be resiling from the Lisbon Treaty and most of the MoUs with the EU, withdrawing from NATO, droping swinging taxes on multinationals to promote local businesses and a range of SWP/Environmental policies that would make our Green Party blush.... and at the same time they want to break down barriers across the EU!
They do it because it helps them get re-elected. But it's a voluntary activity.
Look at other news outlets, such as, well, Sky. The story does not make the front page of Sky News (news.sky.com) so either it is your news judgement that is awry or Rupert Murdoch is part of a conspiracy to save the Mirror's blushes.
Now at work so I'll keep this short. I think Murphy is making things worse not better. Most politicians get a leaders honey moon. He is having a reverse honey moon. One reason may be that he is profoundly unattractive. I don't mean physically just that male machine politicians are a profound turn off for women.
The figures from the MORI survey tend to bear out the theory that Murphy is part of Labour' s Many problems.
"Nearly half of Londoners back bringing back the death penalty for terrorist murders, a shock poll reveals today.
The YouGov survey for the Standard showed 49 per cent of adults in the capital support capital punishment for murder during terrorist attacks, such as the killing of Fusilier Lee Rigby.
Men are more hardline, with 55 per cent believing terrorist killers should be executed, compared to 42 per cent of women"
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/nearly-half-of-londoners-support-death-penalty-for-terrorist-murders-9994720.html
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 · 18m18 minutes ago
£1.7bn EU demand; £2.9bn added to National debt in direct consequence. From @standardnews #BetterOffOut pic.twitter.com/MW3olrFyIb
It's largely an accounting charge, with no cash transferred. So it comes down to how you define national debt. But the government won't need to borrow any extra to pay for it.
I don't see why the two blokes who cut off Lee Rigby's head shouldn't be killed
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is dead:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30945324
Funnily enough, the Guardian too makes no mention of MGN hacking being greeter than Murdoch press....
"that's why the likes of you should never be allowed anywhere near the levers of power."
You've not quite got the hang of this democracy lark, have you?
The important people make the decisions, the plebs suck it up. Interesting. And btw, I'm not in favour of the death penalty, but my vote is worth no more than any one else.
I disagree with other things and sometimes find myself in a minority. Some people just won't be told.
I note the fawning in the media regarding the late King Abdullah. An interesting contrast with the attitude towards Iran, which while hardly an upholder of human rights, is a paragon of democracy compared to the despotic Saudi regime. There are no polls in the Arabian peninsula
Let me guess? You
I only checked the headline so can't comment on coverage generally, but Iran is still seen as an enemy. Why KSA, with its funding of lunatics around the world, is not is beyond me.
If UKIP can get 326MP's all of whom support the death penalty then we will see.
First Great Western is running one of those tedious campaigns with a model pretending to be an employee, and talking about her contribution to your life as a customer. Funny thing is she's a black lady called Tory.
So you have lot's a nice photos of a pretty, industrious women with the strap lines
"Tory's keeping you moving"
"Tory's building a greater West"
"Tory's investing in your future"
...couldn't have planned it better myself...
Giving the State the power to decide which of its Citizens can live or die would be an obscenity.
I do, however, fully support the notion of punishment and that some crimes deserve life without the possibility of parole. This is in effect 'death by prison' as opposed to death by hanging. Sutcliffe, Hindley, Shipman - these type of people should just stay in a cell forever. Maybe in a way that is a worse fate than a swift end...
There will always be terrorist and mass murderers, doesn't mean we have to sink to their level.
This translates as exile: either external (deportation...transportation being somewhat out of fashion at the moment) or internal (prison without parole).
Rumour has it Labour might not go ahead with the TV debates ...
I voted against AV. I might vote for MMC-STV
You either believe in democracy or you don't. If you do you, have to accept that the people have the right to vote for stupid things, as they historically have done any number of times. The question isn't whether we have to sink their their level, clearly we don't, the question is will we sink to their level, and the answer if the population gets angry enough is yes. The emergence is Spain of a new political force that is going to win the next election because the population is angry is proof of that.
Disappointing. You can troll better than that.
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/01/22/the-great-iran-debate/