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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Greens move up 4% in the ICM phone poll while LAB has a

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937


    Hi Nick,

    What do you expect to happen in Notts come May? Is Sherwood a nailed on gain for Lab? Has the closure of the colliery at Thoresby been a factor there?

    As I was saying yesterday I was in Notts at the weekend and surprised at how popular Anna Soubry seems to be amongst at a constituency level. Do you expect to beat her with ease?

    Honestly don't know much about Sherwood - our people are busy there too but I have no direct info on what the atmosphere is.

    Saw your post with surprise - we don't normally mention AS on the doorstep but it's such a common response that "I won't vote for Soubry" that we've introduced a special column on the canvass sheet to record that reply (instead of just "don't know"). Perhaps fairest to say she's a Marmite candidate.

    If there was an election tomorrow I think we'd win by 7% or so - the 17% LibDem vote is swinging heavily to us with the continued absence of a LIbDem candidate sending a very clear message, and Lab/Con voters last time are pretty much unchanged, with a handful of defectors each way but tbh not many. UKIP is nibbling at us both but are quite disorganised locally - e.g. their Broxtowe website http://www.ukipnotts.org/ukip_broxtowe.html doesn't mention their Broxtowe candidate.

    In May, who knows? If there's a 4% swing to Tories nationally between now and then, they should be optimistic. Otherwise, I don't think so - we are much stronger on the ground, partly because of the big Nottingham party. And frankly I'm working it harder and have been for years.

    In theory (the 40/40 strategy) the Tories should be counter-attacking in local Labour marginals, e.g. Nottingham South (2% swing needed). In practice their effort there is very low profile - perhaps there's lots under the radar but we think not.
    If you know about it, by definition it isn't under the radar!
  • Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

    Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

    Goodness -how wet can you get. Only yesterday they were ahead with Ashcroft and on 35%with Populus. There's a long way to go yet. Still enormous potential for one of several outcomes on all sides. You need to grow a pair.
    They were 1% ahead in an Ashcroft poll which is only good for amusement value. They are 3% behind with the gold standard. They are also at 30%.

    Labour continue to fall because Ed is crap. The 35% policy is now a distant memory. It is entirely possible they will poll less than in 2010. He is a huge drag on the party but he is largely priced in. Even the casual observer knows he is crap by now.

    But the Tory vote has been static for months now. Only Labour's collapse is reducing their lead. The tories probably need a lead of 4-5% and a collapse of SLAB to be the largest party. If they are to do as well as last time they need a lead of 6-7% and for their share to increase to in excess of 35%. If they are to get a majority they will need to do better yet. That seems very unlikely to me.

    UKIP is likely to poll in double figures. More than half of their increase are disaffected tory voters. That explains why the tories are down from 36 to 30. They have gained modestly from the collapse of the Lib Dems but not nearly as much as Labour. Unless 2010 Labour voters abandon Ed in significant numbers I cannot see their vote getting to the required level.
    You're choosing to focus on one poll when 3 others in the last 24 hours give a different view. Seek help.
    Look at the graph. It says exactly what I am saying: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
    The graph indicates to me that there's everything to play for.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    Another means-tested benefit, I see!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038

    isam said:

    Reading the squabbles and predictions whenever a poll comes out is like watching the over reactions in the betting whenever a boundary is hit or wicket is taken in a ODI Cricket match

    Not as boring as Test Cricket :)
    Sunil, this is your 10,000 mile Tebbit-chip service reminder.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    The 'Baby on board' badges are readily available from TFL, and work well when a seat is required.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!
    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!
    Like the Good Lady Wifi asking Claudia Winkleman when she was due. Six months ago came back the frosty reply....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    I think the Greens are a big problem for the Tories. You can argue about the motivation of UKIP or the remaining Lib Dems but the Greens are out and out lefties and if anyone is going to be motivated to tactically vote Labour it's a Green. I have myself been toying with voting Green but the more I see Cameron tacking towards UKIP the more essential it is to make my vote against an isolationist right wing party count
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Why dont the SNP and the 45,ers just grow some balls and declare UDI ..It would stop all this whinging

    Can't find microscopes powerful enough to find 'em, to remove them.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    The badges are readily available from TFL, and normally work when it comes to seats being offered.
    I want one saying "I'm a fat duffer and need a rest" ;)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    The badges are readily available from TFL, and normally work when it comes to seats being offered.
    I want one saying "I'm a fat duffer and need a rest" ;)
    Borrow JackW's blonde wig, stick a cushion up your jumper, and slap on a badge.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Cant wait for the Greens to be in the debates...where they have to answer some questions on what appears to be a manifesto drawn up by 7th grade kids.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Roger said:

    I think the Greens are a big problem for the Tories. You can argue about the motivation of UKIP or the remaining Lib Dems but the Greens are out and out lefties and if anyone is going to be motivated to tactically vote Labour it's a Green. I have myself been toying with voting Green but the more I see Cameron tacking towards UKIP the more essential it is to make my vote against an isolationist right wing party count

    Do you live in a marginal ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Roger said:

    I think the Greens are a big problem for the Tories. You can argue about the motivation of UKIP or the remaining Lib Dems but the Greens are out and out lefties and if anyone is going to be motivated to tactically vote Labour it's a Green. I have myself been toying with voting Green but the more I see Cameron tacking towards UKIP the more essential it is to make my vote against an isolationist right wing party count

    The polling suggests they aren't voting tactically.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    The badges are readily available from TFL, and normally work when it comes to seats being offered.
    I want one saying "I'm a fat duffer and need a rest" ;)
    Borrow JackW's blonde wig, stick a cushion up your jumper, and slap on a badge.
    Then I'd just look like a paunchy 18th century dandy. Not sure how that helps ;)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    Both women I was talking to have these badges on the outside of their coats. People still don't offer.

    Entirely anecdotally, their top three groups and worse three groups:

    Top three:

    1) Middle-aged British women
    2) Men in suits
    3) Eastern European workmen

    Worse three:

    1) Somalis
    2) Eastern European women
    3) Afro-Caribbean men
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2015
    ICM and Labour

    Jan 2013: 38 ......... May 2013: 34
    Jan 2014: 35 ......... May 2014: 31
    Jan 2015: 33 ......... May 2015: .... (29 if the last two years are anything to go by)

    And that's opinion polling, rather than real election results.
  • Socrates said:

    Edwardian said:

    saddo said:

    Is 11% of the population crazy enough to want the UK to go back towards the middle ages (Ref: Read the bonkers policies) - probably not, but being Green is all warm and cozy and is a nice thing to say you support.?

    Can you name one single Green policy that would take the UK back to the Middle Ages?

    Unlimited immigration would probably drop our average income a good part of the way there.
    Thanks for the reply, but we already have that policy thanks to the Tories and Labour, and I do not see any proposals by the Greens to change it.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    Socrates said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    Both women I was talking to have these badges on the outside of their coats. People still don't offer.
    OK, that is pretty rude.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    The badges are readily available from TFL, and normally work when it comes to seats being offered.
    I want one saying "I'm a fat duffer and need a rest" ;)
    Borrow JackW's blonde wig, stick a cushion up your jumper, and slap on a badge.
    Then I'd just look like a paunchy 18th century dandy. Not sure how that helps ;)
    Lipstick?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    isam said:

    Reading the squabbles and predictions whenever a poll comes out is like watching the over reactions in the betting whenever a boundary is hit or wicket is taken in a ODI Cricket match

    Polls are a load of rubbish really. Why should the answer to a hypothetical question about what people think they would do tomorrow be more than mediocre evidence of what they will actually do in 3 months time?

    To add to that fundamental flaw, 2 specifics: first, polls are designed to be unprompted. The GE campaign is one huge prompting exercise. Secondly, consider tactical voting. If tactical voting is a thing - and it is - tactical poll question answering must be 1000 times as much of a thing because it is 1000s of times more influential (because of sample vs population sizes). Say you are a committed tory, mildly towards the BOO side of the party. You would never once have told the truth to a pollster since 2010, if you had any sense. You'd say UKIP every time to push Dave further right, except this last week when you'd say Green because of the debates, or in a tory/xx marginal where you'd say xx in order to get the party to throw more of the kitchen sink at your constituency. Which is why Lord Ashcroft might as well have saved his money.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Socrates said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    Both women I was talking to have these badges on the outside of their coats. People still don't offer.

    Entirely anecdotally, their top three groups and worse three groups:

    Top three:

    1) Middle-aged British women
    2) Men in suits
    3) Eastern European workmen

    Worse three:

    1) Somalis
    2) Eastern European women
    3) Afro-Caribbean men
    Ah, knew it would be something to do with foreigners.

    Were they on trains in North London?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Roger said:

    I think the Greens are a big problem for the Tories. You can argue about the motivation of UKIP or the remaining Lib Dems but the Greens are out and out lefties and if anyone is going to be motivated to tactically vote Labour it's a Green. I have myself been toying with voting Green but the more I see Cameron tacking towards UKIP the more essential it is to make my vote against an isolationist right wing party count

    Any further sustained surge by the Communists Greens has to hurt Labour, any further sustained dip by UKIP has to help the Tories.
    Interesting times ahead perhaps.

    You two should go into business together, "the red and blue tinted specs shop".
  • Neil said:

    Edwardian said:

    saddo said:

    Is 11% of the population crazy enough to want the UK to go back towards the middle ages (Ref: Read the bonkers policies) - probably not, but being Green is all warm and cozy and is a nice thing to say you support.?

    Can you name one single Green policy that would take the UK back to the Middle Ages?

    Time travel machines for everyone.

    Best answer, by far!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    Edwardian said:

    Socrates said:

    Edwardian said:

    saddo said:

    Is 11% of the population crazy enough to want the UK to go back towards the middle ages (Ref: Read the bonkers policies) - probably not, but being Green is all warm and cozy and is a nice thing to say you support.?

    Can you name one single Green policy that would take the UK back to the Middle Ages?

    Unlimited immigration would probably drop our average income a good part of the way there.
    Thanks for the reply, but we already have that policy thanks to the Tories and Labour, and I do not see any proposals by the Greens to change it.

    Is the green policy for it to be unlimited inside and outside of the EU?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Cant wait for the Greens to be in the debates...where they have to answer some questions on what appears to be a manifesto drawn up by 7th grade kids.

    If Natalie Bennett is in a five leader debate, I don't think the Greens policies would be properly scrutinised. The Greens 'top layer' policies are pretty popular, it's when you scratch beneath the surface that they start getting more divisive.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    Both women I was talking to have these badges on the outside of their coats. People still don't offer.

    Entirely anecdotally, their top three groups and worse three groups:

    Top three:

    1) Middle-aged British women
    2) Men in suits
    3) Eastern European workmen

    Worse three:

    1) Somalis
    2) Eastern European women
    3) Afro-Caribbean men
    Ah, knew it would be something to do with foreigners.

    Were they on trains in North London?
    One mainly in West London, and the other mainly in North London.
  • RobD said:

    isam said:

    Reading the squabbles and predictions whenever a poll comes out is like watching the over reactions in the betting whenever a boundary is hit or wicket is taken in a ODI Cricket match

    Not as boring as Test Cricket :)
    Sunil, this is your 10,000 mile Tebbit-chip service reminder.
    Subsumed by my Opinion Poll analysis programming :)
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Artist.. in a public debate the surface would definitely be scratched
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    Just speaking to a couple of pregnant ladies who live in London, who were complaining about not being offered seats on the Tube. They agreed that about 25% of the time they get offered a seat when they get on, 40% of the time they get offered a seat but only after a stop or two, and the rest of the time they don't get offered one at all. Apparently most people clearly avoid looking at them. They both mentioned that often they get pushed past as people getting on try to get seats ahead of them.

    Isn't that bloody shameful? What sort of society are we becoming in London?

    How pregnant are they? Perhaps you don't want to make the ultimate faux pas in offering them a seat!

    You can get badges from LT that say something to the effect that "I am pregnant please offer me your seat". EDIT - obviously, you have to be pregnant to get one.

    Both women I was talking to have these badges on the outside of their coats. People still don't offer.

    Entirely anecdotally, their top three groups and worse three groups:

    Top three:

    1) Middle-aged British women
    2) Men in suits
    3) Eastern European workmen

    Worse three:

    1) Somalis
    2) Eastern European women
    3) Afro-Caribbean men
    Ah, knew it would be something to do with foreigners.

    Were they on trains in North London?
    One mainly in West London, and the other mainly in North London.
    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed. Anecdotally, those I know who've worn the badges were normally offered seats on the Underground and Overground in West and South London by people of all creeds and colours.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    Alistair said:

    saddo said:

    Can you name one single Green policy that would take the UK back to the Middle Ages?

    Thanks, Mr Saddo.

    Actually I quite like the health, schools and “sex and drugs" sections. Mostly anyway!

    Take it they want, like UKIP, to leave the EU without a referendum, though.

    The advertising proposals do remind one of the 18th C newspaper licensing.
    Their wacko "alternative" medicine pish is a complete pile of bollocks.

    If, like me, you are incensed by charlatans who peddle sugar pills and water as effective medicines then there are numerous handy cut out and keep guides (in the shape of early day motions in favour of homeopathy) that show who you should vote against at the forth coming election.
    As I said, mostly. That's a bit I don't like. Just about as much as you don't!

    IIRC the current Sec of State for Health is in favour of magic charms.

  • Hi Nick,

    What do you expect to happen in Notts come May? Is Sherwood a nailed on gain for Lab? Has the closure of the colliery at Thoresby been a factor there?

    As I was saying yesterday I was in Notts at the weekend and surprised at how popular Anna Soubry seems to be amongst at a constituency level. Do you expect to beat her with ease?

    Honestly don't know much about Sherwood - our people are busy there too but I have no direct info on what the atmosphere is.

    Saw your post with surprise - we don't normally mention AS on the doorstep but it's such a common response that "I won't vote for Soubry" that we've introduced a special column on the canvass sheet to record that reply (instead of just "don't know"). Perhaps fairest to say she's a Marmite candidate.

    If there was an election tomorrow I think we'd win by 7% or so - the 17% LibDem vote is swinging heavily to us with the continued absence of a LIbDem candidate sending a very clear message, and Lab/Con voters last time are pretty much unchanged, with a handful of defectors each way but tbh not many. UKIP is nibbling at us both but are quite disorganised locally - e.g. their Broxtowe website http://www.ukipnotts.org/ukip_broxtowe.html doesn't mention their Broxtowe candidate.

    In May, who knows? If there's a 4% swing to Tories nationally between now and then, they should be optimistic. Otherwise, I don't think so - we are much stronger on the ground, partly because of the big Nottingham party. And frankly I'm working it harder and have been for years.

    In theory (the 40/40 strategy) the Tories should be counter-attacking in local Labour marginals, e.g. Nottingham South (2% swing needed). In practice their effort there is very low profile - perhaps there's lots under the radar but we think not.
    Thanks for that Nick.

    The people i was speaking to spoke very positively about her efforts around aspects of social care, although I guess this is pretty niche in terms of subjects?!

    Notts/Derbyshire/Leicestershire should be interesting to watch come election night. Plenty of swing constituencies. Lincoln/Loughborough/Broxtowe/Erewash should all be decent bellwethers
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347

    Carnyx said:

    Consider this hypothesis: a UK parliamentary motion is passed to make, say, NHS dentistry fully private in England, or at least to approve an administration decision thereof (as appropriate).

    The money for SHS dentistry services in Scotland is then effectively and promptly cut to zero without any Scottish MP having a say in the matter..

    No, that is sophistry. The effect is a negligible, second-order effect on the Scottish budget, and in any case spending decisions are taken in the Budget.

    Basically it's (as so often) the Scots wanting to have their cake and eat it. Even that wouldn't be too objectionable, if they didn't also want to tell us what kind of cake we should eat.
    But the Budget is driven in considerable part by those very decisions. From one point of view, the bureaucratic one, it is made up from the departmental budgets from last year, adjusted as needed ... Dentistry? Cut that line, it's not needed. It may be a second order effect but that doesn't mean it doesn't have the same arithmetical effect as a hinged two-part actuator does in a mechanism with unit mechanical advantage.

    BTW I see the HoC Library have produced a new briefing document which deals inter aliis with the problems and acknowledges that budgetary effect is itself an issue:

    http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN07027/the-english-question

    "For example, the Health and Social Care (Community Health and Standards) Act 2003 is one
    of the few well-known cases of a provision being created for England (foundation hospitals)
    against the wishes of a majority of English MPs. However, the territorial extent of this bill
    was to the whole UK. The clauses extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland may have
    been limited, but they were not insubstantial, Scotland being covered by almost all of Part 3,
    while Wales was the subject of at least two whole Chapters of Part 2. The presence of such
    provisions would put the bill outside any mechanical count of England-only legislation based
    on territorial extent clauses minus matters devolved in Wales. "

    This was, I think, the document I had had in mind:
    http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN02586/the-west-lothian-question

    Also note this:

    "The impact of removing Scottish MPs from the records of historic Commons divisions is also estimated. Of approximately 3,600 divisions to occur between 26th June 2001 and 26 September 2014, 22 (0.6%) would have concluded differently had the votes of Scottish MPs not been counted."
    http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN07048/england-scotland-wales-mps-voting-in-the-house-of-commons

    Remember many of those divisions had nothing to do with EVEL anyway.



  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Socrates said:

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
    On the other hand if it werent for this huge increase in rudeness we'd have one less thing to be outraged about and our lives would be that little bit emptier.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:

    ICM and Labour

    Jan 2013: 38 ......... May 2013: 34
    Jan 2014: 35 ......... May 2014: 31
    Jan 2015: 33 ......... May 2015: .... (29 if the last two years are anything to go by)

    And that's opinion polling, rather than real election results.

    I wondered why you omitted the Con figures.

    Here they are for completeness!!

    Jan 12 con 40 May 12 con 36
    Jan 13 ......33 May 13..... 28
    Jan 14...... 32 May 14.... 33

    Nothing to see here
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    Neil said:


    Socrates said:

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
    On the other hand if it werent for this huge increase in rudeness we'd have one less thing to be outraged about and our lives would be that little bit emptier.

    We could always become Greens and moan about privilege checking, transectionality or some other such nonsense.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited January 2015

    Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?

    I read the article on my phone when I was half asleep.

    Surely they exaggerated how bad it is as the policies were completely bonkers. Unlimited immigration along with a £71 per week state handout for everyone. Good luck remaining green when millions of immigrants flock to the country for free money. Legalising previously banned terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda as apparently dialogue is needed and not driving the organisations underground. They would most probably be supporters of PIE if they were still in existence.

    It would seem that they truly are the definition of the loony left. Their appeal aside from being a protest vote must be extremely limited.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Alistair said:

    saddo said:

    Can you name one single Green policy that would take the UK back to the Middle Ages?

    Thanks, Mr Saddo.

    Actually I quite like the health, schools and “sex and drugs" sections. Mostly anyway!

    Take it they want, like UKIP, to leave the EU without a referendum, though.

    The advertising proposals do remind one of the 18th C newspaper licensing.
    Their wacko "alternative" medicine pish is a complete pile of bollocks.

    If, like me, you are incensed by charlatans who peddle sugar pills and water as effective medicines then there are numerous handy cut out and keep guides (in the shape of early day motions in favour of homeopathy) that show who you should vote against at the forth coming election.
    Hold your horses. Their manifesto says that they will

    "Push for regulations that no medical service in the EU may
    claim any benefit for a treatment for which there isn’t
    scientific evidence as shown by replicable randomised
    controlled trials."

    How much less "alternative" would you like them to be?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Socrates said:

    Neil said:


    Socrates said:

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
    On the other hand if it werent for this huge increase in rudeness we'd have one less thing to be outraged about and our lives would be that little bit emptier.

    We could always become Greens and moan about privilege checking, transectionality or some other such nonsense.
    Or we could practice making witty comebacks on the internet.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Neil said:


    Socrates said:

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
    On the other hand if it werent for this huge increase in rudeness we'd have one less thing to be outraged about and our lives would be that little bit emptier.

    http://greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/European Manifesto 2014.pdf

    A sustained 36 page howl of Spartist outrage. Your life must be exceptionally full.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Neil said:

    Socrates said:

    Neil said:


    Socrates said:

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
    On the other hand if it werent for this huge increase in rudeness we'd have one less thing to be outraged about and our lives would be that little bit emptier.

    We could always become Greens and moan about privilege checking, transectionality or some other such nonsense.
    Or we could practice making witty comebacks on the internet.
    Alas, attempting witty comebacks is like taking hard drugs. You're always trying to replicate that one perfect hit.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Isn't it a shame that London cabbies don't wear uniforms?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568



    Notts/Derbyshire/Leicestershire should be interesting to watch come election night. Plenty of swing constituencies. Lincoln/Loughborough/Broxtowe/Erewash should all be decent bellwethers

    Absolutely!
    Socrates said:

    <

    I guess pregnant women were always offered seats in the 1950's and '60s. How times have changed.

    I wasn't living in London in the 1950s and 1960s, but there's definitely been a decline in manners from when I was younger. You now regularly hear people playing their music so it can be heard half a carriage away. People used to line up for buses, but now there's a scrum to get on board. Rudeness in driving is also unprecedented: it seems to be standard in London these days to cut people off, stop in the middle of zebra crossings etc.

    Part of the problem is that even decent people are afraid to speak out over bad behaviour, given the rise of knife crime in the capital.
    I don't really agree. Yes, queuing culture has collapsed, but I find people often do politely defer to each other at the moment of boarding. I constantly see people standing up for each other, and occasionally am mortified to be offered a seat myself, even though my self-image is a healthy bloke in good shape (perhaps I look older than I think and that's why I find people politer?). Acceptance of music playing is pretty common but that's a cultural shift as much as a decline in politeness - I quite like hearing miscellaneous stuff myself. All anecdotal, of course (I commute to work by bus along the Holloway Road and use the Tube a lot).

    Never occurred to me to worry about being knifed, but also wouldn't tell a stranger off anyway. (Not British, y'know.) A vague smile and unspecific "I beg your pardon" solves most problems.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    So the Tories still are the nasty party then? Are they really running so scared of UKIP that Brokenshire can show such a disgusting lack of compassion and decency?

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/uk-rejects-visa-plea-five-year-old-granddaughter-funeral-zimbabwe
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015


    I don't really agree. Yes, queuing culture has collapsed, but I find people often do politely defer to each other at the moment of boarding. I constantly see people standing up for each other, and occasionally am mortified to be offered a seat myself, even though my self-image is a healthy bloke in good shape (perhaps I look older than I think and that's why I find people politer?). Acceptance of music playing is pretty common but that's a cultural shift as much as a decline in politeness - I quite like hearing miscellaneous stuff myself. All anecdotal, of course (I commute to work by bus along the Holloway Road and use the Tube a lot).

    The worst is when it's someone playing music loudly through headphones, so you just get a tinny racket. It's very rude.

    As for seat offering, waiting to board etc, I regularly see it, but I also often see elderly and pregnant women having to stand, people pushing past those getting off to grab a seat. As I mentioned, pregnant women I know thought they don't get offered a seat at all a third of the time - despite what must be a dozen people in viewing range. It would be good to have someone do one of those hidden camera videos for Youtube so we can really see how common it is.

    I'm glad you accept the polite traditions in terms of queuing and music playing have changed, whether or not you call it a "cultural shift".
  • I warned UKIP to go anti-fracking, anti-GMOs and anti-glyphosate a year ago. By holding onto the old political agenda, they're getting left behind. It's still not too late to realise that economies need people, and people need to be healthy. The new politics is 100% environmental.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Greengage said:

    I warned UKIP to go anti-fracking, anti-GMOs and anti-glyphosate a year ago. By holding onto the old political agenda, they're getting left behind. It's still not too late to realise that economies need people, and people need to be healthy. The new politics is 100% environmental.

    Hello Tapestry.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Greengage said:

    I warned UKIP to go anti-fracking, anti-GMOs and anti-glyphosate a year ago. By holding onto the old political agenda, they're getting left behind. It's still not too late to realise that economies need people, and people need to be healthy. The new politics is 100% environmental.

    Shouldnt you have been warning them to make sure Ofcom excluded them from the TV debates instead?

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Greengage said:

    I warned UKIP to go anti-fracking, anti-GMOs and anti-glyphosate a year ago. By holding onto the old political agenda, they're getting left behind. It's still not too late to realise that economies need people, and people need to be healthy. The new politics is 100% environmental.

    Depriving elderly gardeners of Round-up is not a vote winner.

  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2015
    MP_SE said:

    Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?

    I read the article on my phone when I was half asleep.

    Surely they exaggerated how bad it is as the policies were completely bonkers. Unlimited immigration along with a £71 per week state handout for everyone. Good luck remaining green when millions of immigrants flock to the country for free money. Legalising previously banned terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda as apparently dialogue is needed and not driving the organisations underground. They would most probably be supporters of PIE if they were still in existence.

    It would seem that they truly are the definition of the loony left. Their appeal aside from being a protest vote must be extremely limited.

    I think that if their other policies are implemented immigration is not going to be much of a problem even with a fully open border, large numbers of emigrants will become the issue.

    The £71 a week for all citizens is a citizens income. Its the one policy of theirs I like (although not as they want to implement it)

    The idea is that all benefits are abolished and instead every citizen gets a non taxable citizens income from birth of £71. So a couple get £142 and a couple with two children £284.

    Its just about enough to live on but not enough to live on in any comfort so people are incentivised to work to top it up. As it is not taxable or means tested they lose nothing by working, although taxes would need to rise to fund it.

    It also solves the problem of immigrants getting benefits because non citizens don't get it (although I think under the greens proposals it would)

    The idea appears to me to have been gained from the Citizens Income Trust, based on the Citizens Income Trust setting it also at £71 a week.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/citizens-income-71-week-person-would-make-britain-fairer
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    I too dislike headphones but if it is too much I ask the person to turn the music down. I get offered seats regularly now, far more than when I was pregnant and I echo what others have said on that. When I did get offered seats it was usually by women.

    I loathe people eating noisily or smelly food. And I find those who do their toilette on the tube bizarre. Evilly, I rather long for the day when the tube has to come to a sudden halt and they have lipstick over their cheek or a mascara wand in their eye. If they really can't be bothered to get up earlier why not wait until they've got to a place of work and do it there.

    Queues at bus stops in London have vanished.

    Some of this is down to deliberate rudeness but some is I think people behaving as if others weren't there - possibly as a way of coping with the rigours of commuting - and so it does not occur to them that flossing one's teeth on the tube is just not on.

    Where I was brought up in Italy it simply would not have occurred to anyone to go out of the house without being properly and completely dressed, even if was just to go to the end of the street to buy one mozzarella. Fare bella figura was - and still is - very important and there was a greater regard for how one appeared and behaved in a communal, shared public space. It's a pity that we don't have the same approach here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    MP_SE said:

    Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?

    I read the article on my phone when I was half asleep.

    Surely they exaggerated how bad it is as the policies were completely bonkers. Unlimited immigration along with a £71 per week state handout for everyone. Good luck remaining green when millions of immigrants flock to the country for free money. Legalising previously banned terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda as apparently dialogue is needed and not driving the organisations underground. They would most probably be supporters of PIE if they were still in existence.

    It would seem that they truly are the definition of the loony left. Their appeal aside from being a protest vote must be extremely limited.

    I think that if their other policies are implemented immigration is not going to be much of a problem even with a fully open border, large numbers of emigrants will become the issue.

    The £71 a week for all citizens is a citizens income. Its the one policy of theirs I like (although not as they want to implement it)

    The idea is that all benefits are abolished and instead every citizen gets a non taxable citizens income from birth of £71. So a couple get £142 and a couple with two children £284.

    Its just about enough to live on but not enough to live on in any comfort so people are incentivised to work to top it up. As it is not taxable or means tested they lose nothing by working, although taxes would need to rise to fund it.

    It also solves the problem of immigrants getting benefits because non citizens don't get it (although I think under the greens proposals it would)

    The idea appears to me to have been gained from the Citizens Income Trust, based on the Citizens Income Trust setting it also at £71 a week.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/citizens-income-71-week-person-would-make-britain-fairer
    It's not a terrible idea - you could raise it further and scrap housing benefit and pensions :)

    Streamline the benefits system :D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Socrates said:



    I'm glad you accept the polite traditions in terms of queuing and music playing have changed, whether or not you call it a "cultural shift".

    It's important not to get too easily irritated in big cities as there are of course plenty of opportunities for it. You're right that leaking headphones aren't a great musical experience.

    There's a lot of luck in it though. I remember when I was in Beijing last year, I was warned on this site that the Chinese do a lot of shoving and never help strangers. When I was there and spoent some time just wandering round at random, I never saw any rudeness and was twice in 4 days approached by strangers saying in broken English that I looked lostand offering directions. Just lucky, perhaps, but I think most experiences are mixed and the trick is to remember the nice ones and ignore/forget the others. A bit like posting on pb really :-)



  • Pulpstar said:

    MP_SE said:

    Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?

    I read the article on my phone when I was half asleep.

    Surely they exaggerated how bad it is as the policies were completely bonkers. Unlimited immigration along with a £71 per week state handout for everyone. Good luck remaining green when millions of immigrants flock to the country for free money. Legalising previously banned terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda as apparently dialogue is needed and not driving the organisations underground. They would most probably be supporters of PIE if they were still in existence.

    It would seem that they truly are the definition of the loony left. Their appeal aside from being a protest vote must be extremely limited.

    I think that if their other policies are implemented immigration is not going to be much of a problem even with a fully open border, large numbers of emigrants will become the issue.

    The £71 a week for all citizens is a citizens income. Its the one policy of theirs I like (although not as they want to implement it)

    The idea is that all benefits are abolished and instead every citizen gets a non taxable citizens income from birth of £71. So a couple get £142 and a couple with two children £284.

    Its just about enough to live on but not enough to live on in any comfort so people are incentivised to work to top it up. As it is not taxable or means tested they lose nothing by working, although taxes would need to rise to fund it.

    It also solves the problem of immigrants getting benefits because non citizens don't get it (although I think under the greens proposals it would)

    The idea appears to me to have been gained from the Citizens Income Trust, based on the Citizens Income Trust setting it also at £71 a week.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/citizens-income-71-week-person-would-make-britain-fairer
    It's not a terrible idea - you could raise it further and scrap housing benefit and pensions :)

    Streamline the benefits system :D
    I think the idea IS that you scrap housing benefits and pensions. Of course one effect of scrapping housing benefit overnight would be a collapse in rent prices demonstrating that housing benefit is a benefit for landlords not their victims.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    My wife and I find that it's generally members of the BME community who offer us oldies seats. Not invariably, but significantly often!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,126

    MP_SE said:

    Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?

    I read the article on my phone when I was half asleep.

    Surely they exaggerated how bad it is as the policies were completely bonkers. Unlimited immigration along with a £71 per week state handout for everyone. Good luck remaining green when millions of immigrants flock to the country for free money. Legalising previously banned terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda as apparently dialogue is needed and not driving the organisations underground. They would most probably be supporters of PIE if they were still in existence.

    It would seem that they truly are the definition of the loony left. Their appeal aside from being a protest vote must be extremely limited.

    I think that if their other policies are implemented immigration is not going to be much of a problem even with a fully open border, large numbers of emigrants will become the issue.

    The £71 a week for all citizens is a citizens income. Its the one policy of theirs I like (although not as they want to implement it)

    The idea is that all benefits are abolished and instead every citizen gets a non taxable citizens income from birth of £71. So a couple get £142 and a couple with two children £284.

    Its just about enough to live on but not enough to live on in any comfort so people are incentivised to work to top it up. As it is not taxable or means tested they lose nothing by working, although taxes would need to rise to fund it.

    It also solves the problem of immigrants getting benefits because non citizens don't get it (although I think under the greens proposals it would)

    The idea appears to me to have been gained from the Citizens Income Trust, based on the Citizens Income Trust setting it also at £71 a week.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/citizens-income-71-week-person-would-make-britain-fairer
    I'm astonished how much fuss and interest there has been in this policy. It has been Green policy since for at least thirty years, probably longer. Indeed, the concept itself dates back a hundred and fifty years or more.

    "Thomas Paine recommended that every citizen should receive an income from the state, in compensation for the inequitable division of land, which he regarded as belonging to every citizen."

    http://www.citizensincome.org/FAQs.htm
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    MP_SE said:

    Well Call Me Dave giving the impression that the Greens are a serious party by kicking up a fuss over the TV broadcasts has really worked well, now they are at 11%.

    Anyone seen the article about the Green Manifesto in the torygraph?

    I read the article on my phone when I was half asleep.

    Surely they exaggerated how bad it is as the policies were completely bonkers. Unlimited immigration along with a £71 per week state handout for everyone. Good luck remaining green when millions of immigrants flock to the country for free money. Legalising previously banned terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda as apparently dialogue is needed and not driving the organisations underground. They would most probably be supporters of PIE if they were still in existence.

    It would seem that they truly are the definition of the loony left. Their appeal aside from being a protest vote must be extremely limited.

    I think that if their other policies are implemented immigration is not going to be much of a problem even with a fully open border, large numbers of emigrants will become the issue.

    The £71 a week for all citizens is a citizens income. Its the one policy of theirs I like (although not as they want to implement it)

    The idea is that all benefits are abolished and instead every citizen gets a non taxable citizens income from birth of £71. So a couple get £142 and a couple with two children £284.

    Its just about enough to live on but not enough to live on in any comfort so people are incentivised to work to top it up. As it is not taxable or means tested they lose nothing by working, although taxes would need to rise to fund it.

    It also solves the problem of immigrants getting benefits because non citizens don't get it (although I think under the greens proposals it would)

    The idea appears to me to have been gained from the Citizens Income Trust, based on the Citizens Income Trust setting it also at £71 a week.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/citizens-income-71-week-person-would-make-britain-fairer
    It's not a terrible idea - you could raise it further and scrap housing benefit and pensions :)

    Streamline the benefits system :D
    I think the idea IS that you scrap housing benefits and pensions. Of course one effect of scrapping housing benefit overnight would be a collapse in rent prices demonstrating that housing benefit is a benefit for landlords not their victims.
    The Greens probably would keep all the other benefits though ;p
  • Cyclefree said:

    I too dislike headphones but if it is too much I ask the person to turn the music down. I get offered seats regularly now, far more than when I was pregnant and I echo what others have said on that. When I did get offered seats it was usually by women.

    My experience is that the ones that poke right in your ears with little rubber caps to make them fit inject the noise in your ears. Its the cheaper ones that are disc shaped with lots of holes in one side of the disc and rest in you outer ear entrance that seem to entertain the rest of the carriage. If the government banned them they would be doing us a favour.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:



    The Greens probably would keep all the other benefits though ;p

    If the torygraph are to be believed it will have top ups for people with children and disabilites. The first is wholly unnecessary as the parents will have the childrens citizens income until they turn 18, the second is understandable providing it is only for severe disabilities that stop someone working in any job.

    They appear to want to abolish the income tax allowance as part of it. So effectively of the £276 billion it costs to do half appears to come from replacing welfare and half from abolishing the income tax allowance.

    Importantly though the Greens it appears are not proposing a citizens income, they are proposing a residents income as seemingly anyone living in the UK would get it regardless of citizenship.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
    Loads are possible but few are likely!!

    Look through the archives on here?

    Search "Plymouth moor view" and they'll appear I reckon

    Otoh castle point, Cannock chase, s Bas e Thurrock , Thanet North, Camborne Dover, Folkestone, sittingbourne, NW Cambs, Telford, Rother valley
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2015
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
    Mid Beds & Huntingdon
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    Alistair said:

    saddo said:

    Can you name one single Green policy that would take the UK back to the Middle Ages?

    Thanks, Mr Saddo.

    Actually I quite like the health, schools and “sex and drugs" sections. Mostly anyway!

    Take it they want, like UKIP, to leave the EU without a referendum, though.

    The advertising proposals do remind one of the 18th C newspaper licensing.
    Their wacko "alternative" medicine pish is a complete pile of bollocks.

    If, like me, you are incensed by charlatans who peddle sugar pills and water as effective medicines then there are numerous handy cut out and keep guides (in the shape of early day motions in favour of homeopathy) that show who you should vote against at the forth coming election.
    Hold your horses. Their manifesto says that they will

    "Push for regulations that no medical service in the EU may
    claim any benefit for a treatment for which there isn’t
    scientific evidence as shown by replicable randomised
    controlled trials."

    How much less "alternative" would you like them to be?
    Intriguing, I clearly haven't been following Green party policy changes.

    EDIT: Hmmm, looks like they changed around 2010 ish. But I see they bascailly wan to allow it to continue basically unfettered for it's placebo effect.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"

    Is there any book on UKIP second places?

    Could be an interesting one.
  • surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
    Mid Beds & Huntingdon
    Poor old TPD Reckless....
  • isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
    Loads are possible but few are likely!!

    Look through the archives on here?

    Search "Plymouth moor view" and they'll appear I reckon

    Otoh castle point, Cannock chase, s Bas e Thurrock , Thanet North, Camborne Dover, Folkestone, sittingbourne, NW Cambs, Telford, Rother valley
    Poor old TPD Reckless....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"

    Is there any book on UKIP second places?

    Could be an interesting one.
    I have a spread bet with @Antifrank on this one. Though it may well be recorded on a previous incarnation of the site.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,590
    Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/
  • antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"

    Greens getting over 10% would almost certainly mean they've outpolled the Lib Dems.

    I'm on 20/1 on that.

    Do like that other bet though.
  • antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"

    Is there any book on UKIP second places?

    Could be an interesting one.
    Interesting? I don't think so .... it's difficult to come second with less than 15% of the GB vote.
  • antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I think Clegg's a given to be dumped (or to resign) when the LibDems lose half their seats. However it's difficult to see both Cameron and Miliband being replaced. Surely whichever of them wins the GE, with or without a coalition is safe?

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
    Loads are possible but few are likely!!

    Look through the archives on here?

    Search "Plymouth moor view" and they'll appear I reckon

    Otoh castle point, Cannock chase, s Bas e Thurrock , Thanet North, Camborne Dover, Folkestone, sittingbourne, NW Cambs, Telford, Rother valley
    Apart from Sittingbourne, the others aren't even close. Well, Sittingbourne isn't either. I am not too sure about Thurrock personally.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"

    Is there any book on UKIP second places?

    Could be an interesting one.
    Interesting? I don't think so .... it's difficult to come second with less than 15% of the GB vote.
    I think they may come second in a good number of seats, including a couple in Leics (Leicester W and Rutland and Melton).

    How many nationwide? Perhaps 25? Perhaps more...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    eek said:

    Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/

    Why ?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 47m47 minutes ago
    Some quite striking numbers in our daily @YouGov poll tonight. Will be on @TheSunNewspaper online at 10.30pm.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I think Clegg's a given to be dumped (or to resign) when the LibDems lose half their seats. However it's difficult to see both Cameron and Miliband being replaced. Surely whichever of them wins the GE, with or without a coalition is safe?

    Maybe lose 2 of 3 in May, and the final one after losing an autumn election?
  • antifrank said:

    Shadsy has managed to tempt me with one of his special bets:

    "Cameron,Miliband & Clegg to be replaced as party leaders in 2015 10/1"

    I wonder whether TSE is tempted by this one:

    "Greens to get over 10% of UK vote 6/1"

    Is there any book on UKIP second places?

    Could be an interesting one.
    Interesting? I don't think so .... it's difficult to come second with less than 15% of the GB vote.
    I think they may come second in a good number of seats, including a couple in Leics (Leicester W and Rutland and Melton).

    How many nationwide? Perhaps 25? Perhaps more...
    Sorry, I now see what you mean - I had thought you were suggesting UKIP could come second in the overall GB vote. Your suggestion would make for an interesting market ..... are you listening Shadsy?
  • Edin_Rokz said:

    Why dont the SNP and the 45,ers just grow some balls and declare UDI ..It would stop all this whinging

    Can't find microscopes powerful enough to find 'em, to remove them.

    That's pretty rich from someone so scrotally challenged that they won't admit to being a SLab supporter. Come on man, have the courage of your (no doubt flexible) convictions.
  • Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

    Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

    Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
    Rochester & Strood, Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North, Dover, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Thanet North, Huntingdon, Folkestone, St. Austell, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Camborne & Redruth.
  • Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

    Sorry, time's up guys.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

    Sorry, time's up guys.
    Was going to post:

    I'll have 50% of that if no one else will and if I am reputable enough.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Totally of topic but I go to bed before Nighthawks,off to see Queen and Adam Lambert in Manchester tomorrow night. Yes no Freddie but still the chance to pay my respect and enjoy Brian and the crew.
    Sell out and good tickets going for £350.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Why dont the SNP and the 45,ers just grow some balls and declare UDI ..It would stop all this whinging

    Can't find microscopes powerful enough to find 'em, to remove them.

    That's pretty rich from someone so scrotally challenged that they won't admit to being a SLab supporter. Come on man, have the courage of your (no doubt flexible) convictions.
    Sorry, I'm proud to say that I dont live in a fantasy Eckland.
This discussion has been closed.