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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Greens move up 4% in the ICM phone poll while LAB has a 3% lead

After yesterday’s poll from Lord Ashcroft showing the Greens on 11 percent there’s news this afternoon that ICM, also a phone pollster, has the party on 9 percent – an increase of four points on last month.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

It ain't peak Green yet.

AlastairMeeks

It certainly seems like the Greens are benefiting from the publicity. But it hasn't harmed Labour in this poll.

TheScreamingEagles

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

JWisemann

Classic Lynton Crosby attempt to split the opposition. Think it could backfire on the Tories to have more prominent voices offering counterpoints to their nonsense in the media though.

Sean_F

antifrank said:

It certainly seems like the Greens are benefiting from the publicity. But it hasn't harmed Labour in this poll.

Looking at the tables of various polls, it seems to me that the Greens hit the Lib Dems hardest, by far.

TCPoliticalBetting

Re: Green surge.
NOTAs or NUTTERS find a new home instead of UKIP or the Lib Dems?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/guardian_clark/status/557547917331156992

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

We don't pay any attention to Scottish sub-samples.

Neil

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

It certainly seems like the Greens are benefiting from the publicity. But it hasn't harmed Labour in this poll.

Looking at the tables of various polls, it seems to me that the Greens hit the Lib Dems hardest, by far.

Not in council by-elections though.

Tissue_Price

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

It certainly seems like the Greens are benefiting from the publicity. But it hasn't harmed Labour in this poll.

Looking at the tables of various polls, it seems to me that the Greens hit the Lib Dems hardest, by far.

The purity of opposition is always going to be an appeal to some.

BenM

Hung parliament nailed on.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Kirkcaldy and Orkney/Shetland are safe for Labour and the Lib Dems in Scotland. That's about it.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Socrates

Terrible result for UKIP. Let's hope it doesn't turn up elsewhere.

tlg86

Do we think that people giving a VI of green are more likely to have voted at the last GE compared with Ukip? Could that be why they are doing better with those pollsters who put quite a bit of emphasis on voting at the last election?

Sunil_Prasannan

LibDems are actually doing OK so far this week, on average, compared to the first two weeks of 2015.

felix

JWisemann said:

Classic Lynton Crosby attempt to split the opposition. Think it could backfire on the Tories to have more prominent voices offering counterpoints to their nonsense in the media though.

No sign of it hurting the Tories in this poll.

Pulpstar

Con + UKIP is very low. Is the electorate feeling more left wing than usual with the freezing weather and NHS at the moment ?

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

Do we think that people giving a VI of green are more likely to have voted at the last GE compared with Ukip? Could that be why they are doing better with those pollsters who put quite a bit of emphasis on voting at the last election?

Ipsos-Mori don't weight by past vote, and they've had Greens on the high side.

TCPoliticalBetting

When does the investigation of Green policies start in the media? It could make the UKIP investigations look like a an easy ride compared to the stuff lurking in the Green policies. But then where will the NOTAs go? WNV?

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

It ain't peak Green yet.

It is so far this week!

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Con + UKIP is very low. Is the electorate feeling more left wing than usual with the freezing weather and NHS at the moment ?

Probably just a more left-wing sample. Good job for Labour that it's going to be freezing in May.

Richard_Nabavi

This is electoral speed-dating.

TheScreamingEagles

This is the most interesting finding after the VI in the polling.

While health continues to be a Conservative weakness, the Tories can take some comfort from a question regarding the blame game for rising A&E waits. A substantial minority, 38%, blame “reforms and financial choices” made by the coalition, but a slender majority – 52% – regard the root problem as being “budgetary pressures and mismanagement which would be much the same under any government”.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/20/poll-labour-lead-fall-green-conservative-lib-dem-ukip

numbercruncher

Interesting comment re Greens taking votes from UKIP - Which sounds like nonsense, until you consider that UKIP originally took votes from the Lib Dems. So maybe a more palatable NOTA plus some genuine support.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Surprised that the Lib Dems are relatively high and UKIP so poor.

Definitely an election of two halves, with reds and blues vying for top spot and the SNP, UKIP, Lib Dems and Greens trying to improve their prospects.

Casino_Royale

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is electoral speed-dating.

Brilliant analogy!

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Do we think that people giving a VI of green are more likely to have voted at the last GE compared with Ukip? Could that be why they are doing better with those pollsters who put quite a bit of emphasis on voting at the last election?

Ipsos-Mori don't weight by past vote, and they've had Greens on the high side.

Thanks for that. If the Greens did poll this highly they could have as much if not more of an impact than Ukip. They could really hurt the Lib Dems even though this particular poll is relatively okay for the yellows.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is electoral speed-dating.

I have to wonder what sort of speed dates you've been on.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I have already put a lot on the SNP and I'm in quite deep on their side, but every poll like this makes me feel that I need to make the SNP the core of my 2015 betting strategy, and to keep hitting the bookies now. I think I need a chat with my other half about betting funds.

If I get this wrong though, his 50th birthday could be a fairly awkward day for me - it's 8 May.

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is electoral speed-dating.

I have to wonder what sort of speed dates you've been on.

None as yet, but I look to PB.com to educate me on modern life.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is electoral speed-dating.

I have to wonder what sort of speed dates you've been on.

#PBSingles

Plato

@Smarmon Fpt Don't try so hard. It doesn't work.

numbercruncher

Re the Hayward suggestion that the polls are understating the Tories, I'm still investigating...

One thing I would highlight re 2010 is that the polls did underestimate the Conservatives, as they have at every election since 1983, but Labour were underestimated as well, with the Lib Dems overestimated. The assumption has been that this was Cleggmania exaggerating the Lib Dem vote share at the (roughly equal) expense of Labour and the Tories. That makes sense, but we can't be sure that that was the reason, we just think it was...

I've read Hayward's presentation ( http://www.conservativehome.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/General-Election-2015.pptx ) and yes there is some evidence of a shy Tory factor, and reasons for pollsters to be nervous, but considering the obvious caveats, about different types of polls/elections, I don't see any smoking gun in there.

BUT - there is one piece of evidence (the thing I thought he'd looked at) that it seems he hasn't considered... So I'm taking a look at the moment

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I have already put a lot on the SNP and I'm in quite deep on their side, but every poll like this makes me feel that I need to make the SNP the core of my 2015 betting strategy, and to keep hitting the bookies now. I think I need a chat with my other half about betting funds.

If I get this wrong though, his 50th birthday could be a fairly awkward day for me - it's 8 May.

I said a while back, Scotland could make or break a few PBers on General election night.

I think is wise not to talk about how much we've got staked on this election. I get enough sneers about how much I invest on that political betting shite.

Stereotomy

"Looking at the headline figures it appears as though the Lib Dems and UKIP have borne the brunt of the Green surge. "

I don't think that really follows. It doesn't make sense to assume that a party with flat numbers has kept exactly the same people as it had last time. It just means that their gains and losses cancelled out

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think is wise not to talk about how much we've got staked on this election. I get enough sneers about how much I invest on that political betting shite.

Novel use of the word "invest"

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is electoral speed-dating.

I have to wonder what sort of speed dates you've been on.

None as yet, but I look to PB.com to educate me on modern life.

Well talking about opinion polls/politics at a speed dating event is likely to ensure you remain single.

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I have already put a lot on the SNP and I'm in quite deep on their side, but every poll like this makes me feel that I need to make the SNP the core of my 2015 betting strategy, and to keep hitting the bookies now. I think I need a chat with my other half about betting funds.

If I get this wrong though, his 50th birthday could be a fairly awkward day for me - it's 8 May.

Check your inbox.

Sean_F

Socrates said:

Terrible result for UKIP. Let's hope it doesn't turn up elsewhere.

Socrates said:

Terrible result for UKIP. Let's hope it doesn't turn up elsewhere.

With ICM, 11% is quite a fair result for UKIP. They often put UKIP in single figures.

TCPoliticalBetting

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Do we think that people giving a VI of green are more likely to have voted at the last GE compared with Ukip? Could that be why they are doing better with those pollsters who put quite a bit of emphasis on voting at the last election?

Ipsos-Mori don't weight by past vote, and they've had Greens on the high side.

Thanks for that. If the Greens did poll this highly they could have as much if not more of an impact than Ukip. They could really hurt the Lib Dems even though this particular poll is relatively okay for the yellows.

"relatively okay for the yellows" This ICM poll is only 1% above Lib Dems worst ICM polls for this parliament.

DavidL

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think is wise not to talk about how much we've got staked on this election. I get enough sneers about how much I invest on that political betting shite.

Novel use of the word "invest"

Yeah, you need novel uses of the English language when explaining why you're staying up till 4am to watch the US Presidential Debates, because you've bet on the colour of Mitt Romney's tie and what words he might say.

Trying to explain the Santorum surge was funny though.

TheWatcher

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

richardDodd

Plato..mail@avantiventures.com

TCPoliticalBetting

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.
and the country's economy is fkd

not_on_fire

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Pulpstar

Just booked 8th May off work btw

Can we get that pub or some such sorted ?

Socrates

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Con + UKIP is very low. Is the electorate feeling more left wing than usual with the freezing weather and NHS at the moment ?

Probably just a more left-wing sample. Good job for Labour that it's going to be freezing in May.

The reality is that the left-right division of most political anoraks means nothing to the average voter.

Tissue_Price

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

tlg86

TCPoliticalBetting said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Do we think that people giving a VI of green are more likely to have voted at the last GE compared with Ukip? Could that be why they are doing better with those pollsters who put quite a bit of emphasis on voting at the last election?

Ipsos-Mori don't weight by past vote, and they've had Greens on the high side.

Thanks for that. If the Greens did poll this highly they could have as much if not more of an impact than Ukip. They could really hurt the Lib Dems even though this particular poll is relatively okay for the yellows.

"relatively okay for the yellows" This ICM poll is only 1% above Lib Dems worst ICM polls for this parliament.

Fair point, I was forgetting that ICM are generally favourable to the Lib Dems. It's hard to see the pollsters closing together as the election approaches. At least one or two pollsters are going to be out by some margin.

not_on_fire

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fire, possibly. The other electoral alternative is pressure for English devolution. The danger there is Labour will bugger it up by gerrymandering divisiveness.

Pulpstar

tlg86 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Do we think that people giving a VI of green are more likely to have voted at the last GE compared with Ukip? Could that be why they are doing better with those pollsters who put quite a bit of emphasis on voting at the last election?

Ipsos-Mori don't weight by past vote, and they've had Greens on the high side.

Thanks for that. If the Greens did poll this highly they could have as much if not more of an impact than Ukip. They could really hurt the Lib Dems even though this particular poll is relatively okay for the yellows.

"relatively okay for the yellows" This ICM poll is only 1% above Lib Dems worst ICM polls for this parliament.

Fair point, I was forgetting that ICM are generally favourable to the Lib Dems. It's hard to see the pollsters closing together as the election approaches. At least one or two pollsters are going to be out by some margin.

"At least one or two pollsters are going to be out by some margin."

That increases the overall accuracy - Nate Silver talks about this on 538.com

If the pollsters "herd" it will probably be towards a false average, which decreases the overall accuracy. Averaging diverse methodology polls is the correct way to go.

Socrates

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

If Tories are sensible, they will realise they've lost more voters to the right than the left, and realise you can't get into office riding one horse. They will then tailor their policy platform so that it includes "right wing" positions where such positions have majority support. Immigration is the obvious one, seeing that it is the second most important issue to the British people and half the public wants to see significant reductions.

Tissue_Price

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

And how many MPs does this right-wing media have?

DavidL

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Pulpstar

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

The Daily Mail press room will be a sight to see.

TheWatcher

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

If Tories are sensible,

Err, when has that ever been the case? They'll lose and implode, as always. It's so predictable.

TheScreamingEagles

@guardian_clark: Download full Guardian/ICM tables here http://t.co/Rm2EjhxGjL @TSEofPB @anthonyjwells @MSmithsonPB @AlbertoNardelli

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Labour will.

In Scotland.

But they are sitting pretty in England & Wales.

not_on_fire

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

And how many MPs does this right-wing media have?

Hundreds, given its readership in marginal constituencies. I suppose you believe politicians govern without reference to the media?

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

The Daily Mail press room will be a sight to see.

"And I would have gotten away with it, if it wasn't for that pesky AV referendum!"

HurstLlama

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

If Tories are sensible, they will realise they've lost more voters to the right than the left, and realise you can't get into office riding one horse. They will then tailor their policy platform so that it includes "right wing" positions where such positions have majority support. Immigration is the obvious one, seeing that it is the second most important issue to the British people and half the public wants to see significant reductions.

They could try that but how many people will believe them? On immigration, for instance, what could Cameron say? Vote for us and we will reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands; honest, we mean it this time?

Socrates

TheWatcher said:

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

If Tories are sensible,

Err, when has that ever been the case? They'll lose and implode, as always. It's so predictable.

Well, it'll be their own damn fault if it happens. There have been a lot of reluctant defectors that have told them what's needed to be won back, and the general reaction has been to put two fingers up at them.

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I'm beginning to think that a more sensible thing to do is to look at 2005 votes rather than 2010 votes for getting an idea at what the SNP has to overcome. 2010 was a massive high water mark for SLab at Westminster. 2005 might give a better idea of the summits that need ot be scaled by SNP.

MikeL

Disappointing poll for Con. However Con has now gone odds on for most seats, and Lab is odds against.

Con 1.99/2.00
Lab 2.02/2.04

Flightpath

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

How does Minority Ed work with SNP not voting on English matters?
Oh I see... Salmond is a liar?

Morris_Dancer

Worth noting that whichever (of the main two) parties loses may well indulge in some old-fashioned blood letting, but the winner will have problems too. The deficit remains a substantial problem and there's a collusion of silence on seriously addressing it. Failure to do so could lead to seriously bad economic consequences, even without the potential destruction of the eurozone, which remains an insane and unworkable nonsense.

Edited extra bit: this means UKIP will continue to enjoy the opportunity to grow substantially. Likewise the SNP. If the Lib Dems avoid government then they might be able to bounce back.

felix

DavidL said:

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Goodness -how wet can you get. Only yesterday they were ahead with Ashcroft and on 35%with Populus. There's a long way to go yet. Still enormous potential for one of several outcomes on all sides. You need to grow a pair.

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

I'm going to guess that Greens had more respondents than Lib Dem in this poll.

Tissue_Price

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

And how many MPs does this right-wing media have?

Hundreds, given its readership in marginal constituencies. I suppose you believe politicians govern without reference to the media?

They don't vote themselves out of jobs-for-life, that's for sure.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I'm beginning to think that a more sensible thing to do is to look at 2005 votes rather than 2010 votes for getting an idea at what the SNP has to overcome. 2010 was a massive high water mark for SLab at Westminster. 2005 might give a better idea of the summits that need ot be scaled by SNP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livingston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Livingston, Evens, SNP.

TheWatcher

HurstLlama said:

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

Tories implode, as they will, and Ed's sitting pretty beyond 2020.

If Tories are sensible, they will realise they've lost more voters to the right than the left, and realise you can't get into office riding one horse. They will then tailor their policy platform so that it includes "right wing" positions where such positions have majority support. Immigration is the obvious one, seeing that it is the second most important issue to the British people and half the public wants to see significant reductions.

They could try that but how many people will believe them? On immigration, for instance, what could Cameron say? Vote for us and we will reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands; honest, we mean it this time?

Exactly. Cameron has promised a referendum but this very site is clogged with voices calling him a liar.

Whatever he says now, the same commentators will be accusing him of telling porky pies just to get their votes.

Pulpstar

felix said:

DavidL said:

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Goodness -how wet can you get. Only yesterday they were ahead with Ashcroft and on 35%with Populus. There's a long way to go yet. Still enormous potential for one of several outcomes on all sides. You need to grow a pair.

Give him a break, the poor sod may have to vote tactically.

LABOUR.

scotslass

Flightpath

Salmond may be all sorts of things but certainly has a claim to be the most successful electoral politician of this generation along with Tony Blair - oh and Salmond didn't take part in illegal wars!

Sean_F

felix said:

DavidL said:

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Goodness -how wet can you get. Only yesterday they were ahead with Ashcroft and on 35%with Populus. There's a long way to go yet. Still enormous potential for one of several outcomes on all sides. You need to grow a pair.

So far this month, Labour have averaged about a 1% lead. I can't imagine Margaret Thatcher, or John Major for that matter, throwing in the towel because they were 1% behind.

AlastairMeeks

The full text of Sir Nicholas Macpherson's lecture on the Scottish independence referendum:

http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/policy-institute/events/assets/Speech-macpherson190115.pdf

felix

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

DavidL said:

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Goodness -how wet can you get. Only yesterday they were ahead with Ashcroft and on 35%with Populus. There's a long way to go yet. Still enormous potential for one of several outcomes on all sides. You need to grow a pair.

Give him a break, the poor sod may have to vote tactically.

LABOUR.

If he's typical of Scottish Tories it explains so much about the past 25 years.

DavidL

Flightpath said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

How does Minority Ed work with SNP not voting on English matters?
Oh I see... Salmond is a liar?

I think his definition of "English matters" might prove to be quite flexible. It really wouldn't be difficult for the government to put a kilt on a variety of measures to justify SNP support.

It also depends on the numbers. In most cases it might be enough for Labour to have a majority that the SNP simply abstain. If Ed has 310 seats and the SNP 25 that would work every time.

OldKingCole

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Tissue_Price said:

not_on_fire said:

Egg on the faces of those who dismissed the Ashcroft poll yesterday that showed a similar surge for the Greens.

If we get a GE result like this, it will probably be the last election fought under FPTP.

Why? Who's going to vote for it to change?

The right-wing media will show a sudden enthusiasm for electoral reform when Labour from a minority government on a much lower share of the vote than Con+UKIP.

And how many MPs does this right-wing media have?

Hundreds, given its readership in marginal constituencies. I suppose you believe politicians govern without reference to the media?

They don't vote themselves out of jobs-for-life, that's for sure.

No reason why someone should not win a seat in several Parliaments under PR, provided they keep in touch with their electorate. That’s not necessarily pork-barrelling either. One fellow round here who was very popular often used to tell people; sorry, can’t help. Sadly the riub of the political green did for him, although he did better than was expected.

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I'm beginning to think that a more sensible thing to do is to look at 2005 votes rather than 2010 votes for getting an idea at what the SNP has to overcome. 2010 was a massive high water mark for SLab at Westminster. 2005 might give a better idea of the summits that need ot be scaled by SNP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livingston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Livingston, Evens, SNP.

I believe I am already on Livingston although not with a vast level of joy in my heart. For some reason I am not feeling it.

After all is that not what betting is about, going for crazy hunches and gut feeling rather than coldly calculating the odds with a piercing analytically insight.

Now wait, it's the second one.

TheLastBoyBobaFett

For reference, the Tories were 1pt ahead in the equivalent poll in 1992.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I'm beginning to think that a more sensible thing to do is to look at 2005 votes rather than 2010 votes for getting an idea at what the SNP has to overcome. 2010 was a massive high water mark for SLab at Westminster. 2005 might give a better idea of the summits that need ot be scaled by SNP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livingston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Livingston, Evens, SNP.

I believe I am already on Livingston although not with a vast level of joy in my heart. For some reason I am not feeling it.

After all is that not what betting is about, going for crazy hunches and gut feeling rather than coldly calculating the odds with a piercing analytically insight.

Now wait, it's the second one.

It is those whopping majorities, look tough to bet against.

Pulpstar

TheLastBoyBobaFett said:

For reference, the Tories were 1pt ahead in the equivalent poll in 1992.

BOBAJOB

Welcome back.

Morris_Dancer

Welcome (back) to pb.com, Mr. Fett.

Sean_F

TheLastBoyBobaFett said:

For reference, the Tories were 1pt ahead in the equivalent poll in 1992.

If there were a similar shift this time, then the Conservatives would finish about 3% ahead.

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

It is those whopping majorities, look tough to bet against.

True, but so is a 20-point swing.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean_F said:

felix said:

DavidL said:

I suppose this poll just shows how awful December was for the tories. Was that the month when hopes of victory finally crumbled?

Swingback went into reverse and the tories seem to have hit a glass ceiling in the very low 30s. The only way they can win is if Labour falls through the floor. With Ed anything is possible but it must be a long shot.

Goodness -how wet can you get. Only yesterday they were ahead with Ashcroft and on 35%with Populus. There's a long way to go yet. Still enormous potential for one of several outcomes on all sides. You need to grow a pair.

So far this month, Labour have averaged about a 1% lead. I can't imagine Margaret Thatcher, or John Major for that matter, throwing in the towel because they were 1% behind.

For January so far:
Simple average Lab lead =1.4%
ELBOW Lab lead =1.3%

felix

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome (back) to pb.com, Mr. Fett.

You should have come back yesterday for the Ashcroft poll - but maybe you were just lurking.

Edwardian

Two polls in two days that show a movement down for UKIP and a bigger move upwards for the Greens, and if repeated by the next poll would put the Greens in third place.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

@guardian_clark: Download full Guardian/ICM tables here http://t.co/Rm2EjhxGjL @TSEofPB @anthonyjwells @MSmithsonPB @AlbertoNardelli

Oh I thought they were embargoed (not on official ICM site!)

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

Flightpath said:

DavidL said:

Well the good news is that my small bet that the Lib Dems are going to get more than 4x UKIP is looking pretty nailed on. At this level of polling 9 Lib Dem MPs should be enough.

My second small bet that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is still looking problematic but less so than it has for most of the last few months.

The bad news is that we are probably heading to a minority Labour government under Ed and a significant SNP presence in a febrile Commons. Man the lifeboats.

How does Minority Ed work with SNP not voting on English matters?
Oh I see... Salmond is a liar?

I think his definition of "English matters" might prove to be quite flexible. It really wouldn't be difficult for the government to put a kilt on a variety of measures to justify SNP support.

It also depends on the numbers. In most cases it might be enough for Labour to have a majority that the SNP simply abstain. If Ed has 310 seats and the SNP 25 that would work every time.

Its very simple - just tie spending to it and 'Barnett consequentials' come into play - one of the issues with EVEL is taking UK spending out of 'English' legislation - so even NHS legislation (both fully devolved) often (not entirely unreasonably) involve Scottish & Welsh MPs voting as spending is affected.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

It is those whopping majorities, look tough to bet against.

True, but so is a 20-point swing.

Take 6000 off the Labour score and add it to the SNP score as a starter for 10.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

It is those whopping majorities, look tough to bet against.

True, but so is a 20-point swing.

The thing you have to ask yourself is where is Labour support going to hold up best? If they're losing a third of their vote or more, where is that taking place?

It's most unlikely to be a uniform loss of support.

Sunil_Prasannan

By my calculations, ICM really should be:

Lab 34
Con 30
LD 11
UKIP 11
Greens 8

Just sayin'...

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I'm beginning to think that a more sensible thing to do is to look at 2005 votes rather than 2010 votes for getting an idea at what the SNP has to overcome. 2010 was a massive high water mark for SLab at Westminster. 2005 might give a better idea of the summits that need ot be scaled by SNP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livingston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Livingston, Evens, SNP.

I believe I am already on Livingston although not with a vast level of joy in my heart. For some reason I am not feeling it.

After all is that not what betting is about, going for crazy hunches and gut feeling rather than coldly calculating the odds with a piercing analytically insight.

Now wait, it's the second one.

It is those whopping majorities, look tough to bet against.

I would like to start a prediction game on which Scottish constituency SNP price is going to fall /rise the most after the Ashcroft constituency polls - guess voided if it is one of the constituencies specifically polled by Ashcroft.

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

It is those whopping majorities, look tough to bet against.

True, but so is a 20-point swing.

The thing you have to ask yourself is where is Labour support going to hold up best? If they're losing a third of their vote or more, where is that taking place?

It's most unlikely to be a uniform loss of support.

Fortress Kirkcaldy and the borders.

TheScreamingEagles

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who asked.

The SNP are on 5% in this poll (and 52% in the smallish sub-sample)

Merci bien. A stonking performance on their part.

Yeah, follow the polls.

Like you, I'm amazed at the prices in the Scottish Constituencies.

I'm beginning to think that a more sensible thing to do is to look at 2005 votes rather than 2010 votes for getting an idea at what the SNP has to overcome. 2010 was a massive high water mark for SLab at Westminster. 2005 might give a better idea of the summits that need ot be scaled by SNP.

Differential turnout.

The Indyref turnout was close to 85%.

I can't see that being replicated in the General Election.

Now of those voters who voted in September, which segments are more likely to turnout.

I can see arguments both in favour and against Yes/SNP leaners.