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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections
Yesterday I attended the annual media briefing by the respected elections analyst and former conservative MP Robert Hayward. It was a packed and thought provoking session which will be reflected in the media in the coming weeks.
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how can we says nat activists are reluctant to gamble with oil below $60 a barrel ?
In addition they use a PR version for local elections which could be further distorting the results.
Lib Dems in Bercow's seat are not happy:
http://buckinghamlibdems.org.uk/en/article/2015/994076/will-voters-in-the-buckingham-constituency-have-a-proper-choice-in-the-2015-general-election
"We, the local party, have been campaigning for six years to be allowed to field an official LibDem candidate in General Elections. We want to put forward a candidate in the 2015 election, but the party hierarchy is currently blocking us. We believe their refusal to let us stand a candidate is unconstitutional."
I'm also not sure about ground war activism, although that will come in the final campaign. This feels more like a national tidal wave than Lib Dem style targeted pavement politics.
I would not too much credence on this chart. It's what is happening in Labour areas - not rural ones where the SNP may have traditional strength - that matters.
The last point of the article is key. No one really knows where the SNP are most likely to win seats, so many are holding back with reckless prudence. I've been a fool and rushed in.
Its slightly dangerous, if the Scottish seats situation still leaves Labour as largest party but badly wounded they will be even more beholden to the SNP to the extent that a Labour majority or close to majority wouldn't be.
19.1.15 LAB 316 (318) CON 264(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 36(36) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 107 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/and-ever-reliable-george-eaton-keeps.html
It appears that the voting intention question was not asked first, and followed a question about oil price. This may well have depressed the SNP voting intention figure:
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581st.pdf
The key is what happens in the (former) Labour heartlands where the Tories have been utterly irrelevant for decades and it's what (former) Labour voters do that matters.
17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (Ed is crap is PM)
25.11.14 LAB 319 (319) CON 267(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 31(30) (Ed is crap is PM)
2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
9.12.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 32(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
16.12.14 LAB 318 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 33(32) (Ed is crap is PM)
23.12.14 LAB 320 (318) CON 263(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 35(33) (Ed is crap is PM)
5.1.15 LAB 322 (320) CON 259(263) LD 32(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(35) (Ed is crap is PM)
12.1.15 LAB 318 (322) CON 262(259) LD 33(32) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(36) (Ed is crap is PM)
19.1.15 LAB 316 (318) CON 264(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 36(36) (Ed is crap is PM)
Harperson making friends and influencing people, hope Labour dont want any favors from Obama in their first year if they win!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/11356354/Drugs-brothels-al-Qaeda-and-the-Beyonce-tax-the-Green-Party-plan-for-Britain.html
They suddenly got big enough to get briefed against. Lots of... erm... interesting policies.
None of which will make a blind bit of difference to those contemplating voting Green.
Yes, let's see what Lord Ashcroft finds
Unfortunatly as yet I do not have a Green PPC in my constituency.
It will be a far cry from the good old days when Blair and Bush got along so famously.
The immigration policy is a hoot... how to bankrupt our schools and NHS with a year.
When ever people say that about revelations about UKIPs views you don't believe them....
It is fine for minor parties to express fairly radical views as to indicate their direction of travel if supporting a minority government. No one seriously expects Greens or UKIP to have a majority government.
It is quite refreshing to have an alternative world view put to the public. The LibLabConKip manifestos all look alike in comparison.
http://www.aziahmed.com/
https://twitter.com/aziahmed1
It is fine for minor parties to express fairly radical views as to indicate their direction of travel if supporting a minority government. No one seriously expects Greens or UKIP to have a majority government.
It is quite refreshing to have an alternative world view put to the public. The LibLabConKip manifestos all look alike in comparison.
liblabconkipgrn have all failed - time for the Pirates!
In my view, the good folk of south buckinghamshire are unrepresented. I think, on election to the post of Speaker, the MP in question should resign their seat and take up an honorific constituency (say MP for the Palace and Precinct of Westminster) and there should be a by-election to replace them in their normal constituency.
There could also be a formal election to the P&P seat, say every 8 years, which would also have the advantage of being an effective term limit as Speaker - I'd have no issue for former Speakers being automatically translated at the end of their term
But as a poll it cannot be directly compared with other polls on Scottish voting intention nor with the previous Panelbase poll.
My guess is that the new SNP voters are less in the habit of voting - for many the referendum may have been the first time. The by-elections slightly strengthen the doubt whether they'll all vote in a GE. I wouldn't put it more strongly than that.
Personally, I think punters are making a huge mistake now in not ploughing in further on the odds-against seats, but I've made that case repeatedly, so my conscience is clear.
"The Conservatives have selected Azi Ahmed as candidate for Rochdale:"
Obviously parties tend to pick Asian candidates for constituencies where much of the vote is Asian. I say 'obviously' because like tends to vote for like so it makes sense. But what sort of research has been done on this sort of thing? The parties are acting in a Darwinian sense - they are aiming to maximise their MPs, I'd assume.
The BAME lobby thinks they are under-represented as MPs and want a BAME shortlist. That would seem counterproductive to whichever party introduces them.
What sort of bias is there on a gender level?
Is there any evidence that 'working class' voters prefer working class MPs?
Surely the selection committees must take this factor into account, or at least be aware of it?
It's a good job OGH has never critcised folk for comitting those particular sins..
The watermelon vote is an odd one, because a their trustafarian demographic would be absolutely horrified at the effect on Green policies on their inheritance, among other things
Even in seats that haven't gone to odds on I've seen big price cuts, Glasgow SW from 6.5 to 3
And by the way Scottish tories are somewhere between 15 and 20% of the Scottish electorate. So your statement is like saying that there are not many UKIP supporters in England.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/11356354/Drugs-brothels-al-Qaeda-and-the-Beyonce-tax-the-Green-Party-plan-for-Britain.html
11% of our electorate might vote for a return to pre-industrial standards of living. To paraphrase Ripley from Aliens 'did IQs drop while I was asleep'? FFS.
Secondly, practically no one understands how by elections are supposed to work under our current voting system. I suspect turnout was low even by local by election standards so this is like a poll with a very low number of participants.
Thirdly, if your obsession is the creation of a new and shiny nation voting for a representative for Auchentoole is not likely to get your juices going.
Fourthly, in terms of seats this war is all about the SNP-v-Labour because Labour have nearly all the seats apart from those belonging to the Lib Dems which are going to fall easily. The war with Labour will be fought in the conurbations in and around Glasgow and Edinburgh. The SNP is positioning itself as more left wing than Labour for that fight. It doesn't immediately win over new rural voters.
You do know what that means, don't you kippers?
Nick, here is my reply
Yes but I am in Edinburgh today earning a crust.
I liked the role he played in the referendum. So many in Scottish Labour, especially the MPs, seemed to have better things to do with their time. Curiously, those who came here from England to help were much more active.
He is obviously smart and reasonably articulate, a lot better than Ed for example. He has some interesting backstory, such as the roll he played when that helicopter dropped in for a drink.
My worry is that he rather jumps all over the place. He may or may not be a Blairite but he undoubtedly has the Blairite tendency of telling any particular audience what he thinks they want to hear. Some of his statements recently have been baffling but Labour are not used to being flanked on the left (Blairites always took lefties for granted on the basis that they had nowhere else to go) and it is unsettling them.
He needs to find a way to Holyrood though.
He's annoyed a lot of Kippers by being a lightweight and rubbish.
If they don't campaign for him, Tories 6/1 in the seat
What does that mean?
I think I'm right in saying the Greens are unique in that they maintain a permanent policy document (the Manifesto for Sustainable Society) which is openly added to/edited etc at each conference by party members. A GE manifesto is then drawn up from this based on priorities. I don't think other parties do this. They review the whole policy basis during the period in opposition, usually in private sessions with little or no involvement from party members, and then write a GE manifesto.
Stephen Tall retweeted
Jeremy Browne@JeremyBrowneMP·11 mins11 minutes ago
@stephentall The Tories will out-poll Labour.
Jeremy Browne@JeremyBrowneMP·9 mins9 minutes ago
@stephentall Comfortably, I'd have thought. Does anyone seriously think otherwise?
Save the NHS!
And there's a difference between 'positive' and 'mendacious'.......
Seems the by election has been very hard fought by both Labour and SNP .
Probably a Labour gain from SNP but the result will tell us more than previous by elections in rural Scotland .
We are the People's Republic of Bercow and the whole General Election stuff is but of passing interest as we have no say in the matter. We can only vote for someone who has no chance of being in Govt, I suppose we are pseudo-kippers although we turned our noses up at Farage when he came near us last time.
"I am sure the price of oil will be mentioned before the actual poll in May."
BUT, probably not as a preamble on the ballot paper :-)
Just trying to help
John Prescott@johnprescott·26 mins26 minutes ago
Ukip has sacked its policy chief for failing to finish its manifesto. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4328271.ece … So let's help them Twitter! #MyUkipManifesto
Though even the most ardent kipper would have to concede that the turnover of personnel at the top of UKIP seems to be inspired by the politics of Game Of Thrones.
Utter nonsense and quite bad form to recommend a bet on such baseless supposition
Although as I take it we are all on Ukip at tasty double figure prices, some might like to hedge
Sliced bread, incidentally was, IIRC introduced in the v late 50’s. Before then one used a breadknife and cut slices to taste!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30883472
I know you can't process anything that might be bad for UKIP, but some things are.
"Vote Green. Get Romans."
"No. That used to happen but it will not post referendum. Scottish tories know what their priority is and that is remaining British."
Very true-but the result of their votes this time will not determine whether Scotland becomes independent, or even if their is another referendum.
For that reason alone, manyTtory leaning opponents of Labour will continue to vote SNP to stop Labour NOW, rather than vote for a unionist candidate to stop the not-happening-NOW independence.
Consider how effective the SNP strategy of-correctly-telling the electorate in 2011 Holyrood that an SNP vote and victory would not automatically trigger independence.
You are wrong to infer there may be a lack if activists etc campaigning for Tim aker as two of Ukips top activists have already relocated to Thurrock to work for him, plus there are Ukip councillors in Thurrock who are obviously going to campaign as well
Last month he won a council seat and Carswell and oFlynn were canvassing for him in the run up
So rather than try one upmanship you should pay attention and bet accordingly
Can't see what can go wrong there.
The feeling in Scotland is that this is not over. I walked past 3 or 4 YES posters in Edinburgh this morning walking into work. We are at war and if that means being in alliance with the Soviet Union so be it.
That was last month, this month, he's screwed up the delivery of the manifesto, which means activists don't have policies to sell on the door step, it means it might not be properly costed and verified, and not ready before UKIP's Spring Conference.
But yes, that's not going to have any impact on how UKIP view Tim Aker now.
Perversely enough, if followed through, that'd make them even more hawkish on immigration than UKIP (albeit for slightly different motives) which is precisely why they don't do it.
I wonder what % of other Unionists have the same thoughts
Which is bad news for them.
A shame because there are a great many truly "green" policies we do need e.g. local authorities not mowing grass verges prematurely or excessively, encouraging green roofs, effective recycling, allotments, front gardens which are gardens etc which could improve day to day life for many.