Curtice is surely right in his analysis of this poll (linked below).
"As many as 46% [of Scots] think the fall in the price of oil has weakened the case for independence. Now, of course, many of those who take that view are committed unionists. But 22% of SNP supporters (and the same proportion of those who voted Yes in September) also share this view"
So more than fifth of the theoretical YES vote has fallen away, as the price of oil has jumped out the windae. That has to be bad for indyreffers, and Nats. The Nats blatantly lied about iScotland's immediate economic stability; they blatantly lied about the income they could reasonably expect from North Sea Oil. And the lies are now being revealed.
Salmond and Sturgeon lied. This will surely hurt them in Holyrood in 2016, the question is how much it will hurt them before GE 2015.
The UK Gmt was using much the same range of oil price figures. Were they lying too? I think you are putting too much weight on the concept of 'lying'. And independence would not have been till 2016-17 anyway, so we will see what the price is then.
The negotiations would be happening now, as would the cuts in investment and jobs. What price any kind of monetary union with the oil price halved in the space of months? "We will see what the price is then" illustrates perfectly the insanity of placing oil at the heart of a fiscal plan for Scotland. It is not possible to plan.
Curtice is surely right in his analysis of this poll (linked below).
"As many as 46% [of Scots] think the fall in the price of oil has weakened the case for independence. Now, of course, many of those who take that view are committed unionists. But 22% of SNP supporters (and the same proportion of those who voted Yes in September) also share this view"
So more than fifth of the theoretical YES vote has fallen away, as the price of oil has jumped out the windae. That has to be bad for indyreffers, and Nats. The Nats blatantly lied about iScotland's immediate economic stability; they blatantly lied about the income they could reasonably expect from North Sea Oil. And the lies are now being revealed.
Salmond and Sturgeon lied. This will surely hurt them in Holyrood in 2016, the question is how much it will hurt them before GE 2015.
The UK Gmt was using much the same range of oil price figures. Were they lying too? I think you are putting too much weight on the concept of 'lying'. And independence would not have been till 2016-17 anyway, so we will see what the price is then.
The negotiations would be happening now, as would the cuts in investment and jobs. What price any kind of monetary union with the oil price halved in the space of months? "We will see what the price is then" illustrates perfectly the insanity of placing oil at the heart of a fiscal plan for Scotland. It is not possible to plan.
It was never the be all and end all, they just said they would manage it much better and save money in the good years, unlike UK who have hosed our £300+ billion up the wall
I, for one, was on tenterhooks as to whether there was a Jihadist connection.
Bet Sean had his suitcase packed ready to flee
Ironic, given that you'd be fleeing an indy Scotland by now, had the Scots had the bollocks to vote YES, instead of proving themselves a bunch of handbag twirling ballet-fans who daren't let go of Mother England.
Why? Coz indy Scotland would already be bankrupt.
We sent ye home tae think again, didn't we, you mincing little tartan-bra-wearing operetta-lover.
CHORTLE.
you could not resist. we would still be working out the compensation for 300 years raping and pillaging, that would have offset any limited blip in oil prices.
PS, price will have soared by the time we win the next vote, they will not be down for long.
I, for one, was on tenterhooks as to whether there was a Jihadist connection.
Bet Sean had his suitcase packed ready to flee
Ironic, given that you'd be fleeing an indy Scotland by now, had the Scots had the bollocks to vote YES, instead of proving themselves a bunch of handbag twirling ballet-fans who daren't let go of Mother England.
Why? Coz indy Scotland would already be bankrupt.
We sent ye home tae think again, didn't we, you mincing little tartan-bra-wearing operetta-lover.
CHORTLE.
you could not resist. we would still be working out the compensation for 300 years raping and pillaging, that would have offset any limited blip in oil prices.
PS, price will have soared by the time we win the next vote, they will not be down for long.
Far down the wind, vaguely, I hear the sound of whistling!
I, for one, was on tenterhooks as to whether there was a Jihadist connection.
Bet Sean had his suitcase packed ready to flee
Ironic, given that you'd be fleeing an indy Scotland by now, had the Scots had the bollocks to vote YES, instead of proving themselves a bunch of handbag twirling ballet-fans who daren't let go of Mother England.
Why? Coz indy Scotland would already be bankrupt.
We sent ye home tae think again, didn't we, you mincing little tartan-bra-wearing operetta-lover.
CHORTLE.
you could not resist. we would still be working out the compensation for 300 years raping and pillaging, that would have offset any limited blip in oil prices.
How did that whole Braveheart thing go? Really? How did it go? You know, "you can take our oil, you can take our tatties, you can take our fat ugly ginger-haired "women", but you'll never take our FREEDOM"??
How? How did it pan out, in the end, when you had your great big vote? Mmm?
Turned out you didn't want your freedom, after all, did you? You WANTED to stay racially enslaved by the English. You actually PREFER to be dependant, you are the first once-sovereign country on earth to say No thanks to regaining sovereignty, can we stay just as we are, cause we're TOO SCARED OF SCARY THINGS.
Scotland the Brrrr.
It was all the English immigrants that won it for the unionists, they betrayed us. Those sneaky Tories running up to their second homes and forcing all thh servants to vote no.
So the evidence is so abundant you can't even cite it. Its amazing how people that claim to be evidence based suddenly bury their heads in the sand when it comes to this. The Tories have lost about seven points or so to UKIP. How many have they lost to the Lib Dems?
And believe what you like, but there is abundant evidence that many centrist voters are put off even by the limited pandering to kippers that has already taken place. You just close your eyes to it.
What evidence?
I see no ships.
I think there is a Free Democrat-type vote in this country, part of which votes Conservative, which would be repelled by a formal alliance between Conservatives and UKIP. But, it's not very numerous. The pre-Christmas Populus poll suggests that this section of the electorate (economically dry, pro-EU, pro-immigration) is 13%, and currently split between three parties.
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
Significant-ish jump in UKIP support. Spillover from the French atrocities?
It is amazing to think that we are now just 5 months from the General Election and we are looking at a hard right party gaining 15 percent of the vote - 1 in 6 of the electorate; and the same party seems likely to shunt the "Liberals" out of the top three, in terms of votes, for the first time in living memory. Indeed the Liberals may even come fifth.
And according to some polls UKIP are nearer 20% than 15%. Exciting stuff, for us geeks.
SeanT - I have news for you ...... we are in fact now barely 3.5 months away from the General Election, even less than that from when people start casting their postal votes!
Mr. G, that was not the case three hundred years ago. Spending in Scotland is higher per head than England (although Scotland is also a net contributor). I don't think that can fairly be summarised as three centuries of rape and pillage.
Mr. G, that was not the case three hundred years ago. Spending in Scotland is higher per head than England (although Scotland is also a net contributor). I don't think that can fairly be summarised as three centuries of rape and pillage.
Spending didn't used to be higher. It only got massively higher at the same time as oil was starting to be exploited.
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
I wonder where UKIP would poll best in Scotland.
Their best council area in the European elections was Moray (strangely enough, an SNP stronghold).
They also polled strongly in Dumfries & Galloway, the Borders and the Highlands. Edinburgh was their least-successful.
Mr. G, that was not the case three hundred years ago. Spending in Scotland is higher per head than England (although Scotland is also a net contributor). I don't think that can fairly be summarised as three centuries of rape and pillage.
Spending didn't used to be higher. It only got massively higher at the same time as oil was starting to be exploited.
The Barnett formula was an update of the Goschen formula, dating from 1888 which allocated higher spending per head in Scotland than England and lasted until superseded by the Barnett formula:
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
I wonder where UKIP would poll best in Scotland.
Their best council area in the European elections was Moray (strangely enough, an SNP stronghold).
They also polled strongly in Dumfries & Galloway, the Borders and the Highlands. Edinburgh was their least-successful.
Perhaps people who oppose the SNPs pro EU tendencies? People who wanted real independence...
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
Significant-ish jump in UKIP support. Spillover from the French atrocities?
It is amazing to think that we are now just 5 months from the General Election and we are looking at a hard right party gaining 15 percent of the vote - 1 in 6 of the electorate; and the same party seems likely to shunt the "Liberals" out of the top three, in terms of votes, for the first time in living memory. Indeed the Liberals may even come fifth.
And according to some polls UKIP are nearer 20% than 15%. Exciting stuff, for us geeks.
SeanT - I have news for you ...... we are in fact now barely 3.5 months away from the General Election, even less than that from when people start casting their postal votes!
I was going to say that Peter. Not only that but February is short month and we (UKIP) may have more positive fallout from the UKIP Spring Conference in Margate on Feb 27/28th.
UAF @uaf 14m14 minutes ago Resistance to Pegida - 'Intolerance must not be tolerated', http://fb.me/4JB4fmSY1
Yes, the European Greens don't know where to turn now that the cat is out of the bag, for even morons to see, of what Islamism really means for Europe.
Just the other day several Conservative supporters on here argued that UKIP voters were like people that wanted to buy bananas from a grocers that only sold apples and would have to just accept bananas weren't available. When it was argued that the grocer could remain in business by selling both apples and bananas, they said the banana-likers would just have to buy apples, because otherwise the shop would be replaced by pet store that only sold dog-food, which is worse than apples.
Amazingly, this was an analogy that the Tory supporters, not the UKIP supporters, came up with.
The problem on the right seems to be that some want apples and no bananas and others want bananas and no apples. None of you seem to be in the market for a fruit salad.
While there are cases of this, I'm not sure it's really true. I guess most non-defecting Tories in the party want a policy platform of being pro-business, a balanced budget, tough on crime etc. Meanwhile the UKIP defectors want pre-Labour levels of immigration, protections for civil liberties, and a tough negotiation with the EU over repatriation powers. I don't think many of the former lot would be upset by the second lot (a few Ken Clarke devotees aside), or vice versa. It's just the first lot dislike the second lot, and don't want them in the party.
That's exactly it.
What I find interesting is how many Tory loyalists are keen to point out to UKIP defectors that they've always been a little bit pink/lefty/socio-culturally rad/progressive once they've left. But there was never a peep of that when we were all in the same party, and sharing the same platform, at GE2010.
I didn't hear a single Tory on here criticise the manifesto commitment to major reductions in net immigration and repatriations of EU competencies.
Fair enough, if that's how the remaining loyalist Tories have always secretly felt. But voters might conclude that if they want social democracy, they may as well vote for the real thing.
We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police. Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before. We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................
If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.
This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.
Just the other day several Conservative supporters on here argued that UKIP voters were like people that wanted to buy bananas from a grocers that only sold apples and would have to just accept bananas weren't available. When it was argued that the grocer could remain in business by selling both apples and bananas, they said the banana-likers would just have to buy apples, because otherwise the shop would be replaced by pet store that only sold dog-food, which is worse than apples.
Amazingly, this was an analogy that the Tory supporters, not the UKIP supporters, came up with.
Not quite correct. The analogy was that disaffected Tories voting UKIP would only buy a particular fruit if the green grocer could make it taste of another. Go back and read the initial comment again.
I think the rise of UKIP in Scotland is going unnoticed. They seem to have consolidated their position as the fourth place party, with around 7% support - leaving the LibDems and the Greens fighting it out for the wooden spoon. Now that UKIP are effectively committed to fielding candidates across the whole of Scotland, to ensure they keep their debate seat, I wouldn't be surprised if they get up to 10% in the polls. My sense is that UKIP's support in Scotland would be concentrated in certain areas.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
Comments
PS, price will have soared by the time we win the next vote, they will not be down for long.
Those sneaky Tories running up to their second homes and forcing all thh servants to vote no.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling might tease out if UKIP are on the rise in Scotland. It would be interesting to know where this support is coming from.
Or some other usual suspects?
They also polled strongly in Dumfries & Galloway, the Borders and the Highlands. Edinburgh was their least-successful.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goschen_formula
Higher spending per head long preceded North Sea Oil.
What I find interesting is how many Tory loyalists are keen to point out to UKIP defectors that they've always been a little bit pink/lefty/socio-culturally rad/progressive once they've left. But there was never a peep of that when we were all in the same party, and sharing the same platform, at GE2010.
I didn't hear a single Tory on here criticise the manifesto commitment to major reductions in net immigration and repatriations of EU competencies.
Fair enough, if that's how the remaining loyalist Tories have always secretly felt. But voters might conclude that if they want social democracy, they may as well vote for the real thing.