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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First Scottish GE2015 poll of the year finds LAB closing the gap behind the SNP to just 10%

This morning we have what is undoubtedly the most important poll so far of this general election year – a new survey by Panelbase of Scottish voting intentions which has the Scottish LAB party in its best position since just after September’s IndyRef.

Read the full story here

Tim_B

First?

Tim_B

FrancisUrquhart said:

God, I thought the whole Ferguson stuff had been left behind by the BBC. So what do I get when I turn on R5, Adrian Chiles has been doing a piece on African American's experience of police and he has just said "well what we got in places like Ferguson is unarmed African American's being dispatched".

The BBC just can't accept in that particular case that a detailed investigation has been conducted and his description is nowhere near what the report concluded happened (and nobody has found any issues with the evidence provided). The kid wasn't just dispatched, he committed a robbery, attacked a police officer and attempted to take his gun.

It is nearly as bad as the presenter on the night of the decision was "well that was the legal decision, but that isn't the moral decision".

He wasn't just attempting to take his gun but also to shoot its owner with it. He was high on something according to toxicology. Most people other than Al Sharpton and his fans accept that Wilson had no choice but to shoot.

The New York case of the man who was choke held and died for selling loose cigarettes is far more problematic. Selling loosies shouldn't mean a death sentence, even if the perp had serious health issues. The fact that the senior sergeant in command at the time was a black female doesn't alter the fact that this was an over reaction - but the mayor had told them to enforce this law, so the cops were caught in the middle. I would have thought there were grounds for charges against the cops on this one.

CarlottaVance

As surely as night follows day, once again, confident Nat predictions (guaranteed EU membership, currency union with rUK, 'realistic' oil price forecast) may prove unfounded.....I see comical James, who cheerfully accepted a 17 point SNP lead now says 'we need to see other polls' before accepting a 10 lead. We do, but once again, Nat predictions may turn out to be wide of the mark.....

AndrewStuart

"This is the worst poll for the SNP since September" What about the one on your table showing the SNP lead at 2%?

Plus that table is missing this post referendum poll showing Labour with 4% lead:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Where-Next-for-Scotland-Tables.pdf

Plus there was the 3% lead you posted here in Populus's poll for November which had a sub sample 1,239:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/08/lab-running-just-3-behind-snp-in-scotland-according-to-the-populus-november-aggregate/

scotslass

No Mike it is the "worst" SNP poll since Panelbase, the same pollster, showed them with only a 2 per cent lead 34-32 after the referendum!

This splendid site seems to me totally impartial - until it has the chance to anticipate anything resembling an SNP reverse - then Mike goes into unionist overdrive.

How on earth can a poll which would suggest 29 SNP gains and a double digit lead be considered anything other than good news for the SNP. If they hit that in the election Sturgeon and Salmond will be hi fiving from Govan to Banff.

I don't mind Carlotta's union flag spectacles but Mike you should not be letting your slip show so much!

CarlottaVance

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

FrancisUrquhart

Tim_B said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

God, I thought the whole Ferguson stuff had been left behind by the BBC. So what do I get when I turn on R5, Adrian Chiles has been doing a piece on African American's experience of police and he has just said "well what we got in places like Ferguson is unarmed African American's being dispatched".

The BBC just can't accept in that particular case that a detailed investigation has been conducted and his description is nowhere near what the report concluded happened (and nobody has found any issues with the evidence provided). The kid wasn't just dispatched, he committed a robbery, attacked a police officer and attempted to take his gun.

It is nearly as bad as the presenter on the night of the decision was "well that was the legal decision, but that isn't the moral decision".

He wasn't just attempting to take his gun but also to shoot its owner with it. He was high on something according to toxicology. Most people other than Al Sharpton and his fans accept that Wilson had no choice but to shoot.

The New York case of the man who was choke held and died for selling loose cigarettes is far more problematic. Selling loosies shouldn't mean a death sentence, even if the perp had serious health issues. The fact that the senior sergeant in command at the time was a black female doesn't alter the fact that this was an over reaction - but the mayor had told them to enforce this law, so the cops were caught in the middle. I would have thought there were grounds for charges against the cops on this one.

Clearly that memo hasn't got to the BBC yet...Chiles quote was clear that he still was of the opinion that he was just "disptached", when it has been shown that wasn't the case at all. I think this is extremely irresponsible broadcasting.

If they want to investigate racial profiling by the likes of US policing, I think that is a valid thing to look at, but like the Trayvon Martin case, these are not good examples to use, and given the hatred and violence wiped up over initial misreporting and false rumours being spread, irresponsible.

RodCrosby

A free country?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914951/Suspended-sent-equality-training-Christian-magistrate-said-Adopted-child-needs-mum-dad-not-gay-parents.html

Dream on...

CarlottaVance

AndrewStuart said:

"This is the worst poll for the SNP since September" What about the one on your table showing the SNP lead at 2%?

You mean the one that was in September? The one after that ("since September") showed an SNP lead of 19, and they've been up to +24. If this Panelbase result is seen in other polls and the SNP have seen a drop in support, it may be because voters attention is turning to how well the SNP run things like schools and hospitals....When do they (finally) publish Scottish NHS A&E Wait times? Most recent data is September......

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

To be fair, I think there has been a good number of polls conducted where the public have been shown a policy, with no mention of which party are proposing it.

Many Tory policies have scored well. However, when the same policies are prompted with "The Tories would like to ....", they score far worse.

I think the Tories have to work a lot harder to get something liked and accepted given their brand, and there is always some suspicion attached to it. Labour's "brand" seems to allow them to pump out some right nonsense, and it gets oh well they are trying to do the right thing response.

CarlottaVance

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

To be fair, I think there has been a good number of polls conducted where the public have been shown a policy, with no mention of which party are proposing it.

Many Tory policies have scored well. However, when the same policies are prompted with "The Tories would like to ....", they score far worse.

I think the Tories have to work a lot harder to get something liked and accepted given their brand, and there is always some suspicion attached to it. Labour's "brand" seems to allow them to pump out some right nonsense, and it gets oh well they are trying to do the right thing response.

Got a link?

edmundintokyo

CarlottaVance said:

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

Net favourables of -16% is completely consistent with (but doesn't in itself prove) the Toxic Tories theory, which is that their brand brings the support of basically 30% of voters but most of the rest are strongly opposed.

It might be that Labour has a similar problem or worse, but you can't establish that either way on those numbers - you need to poll the strength of feeling of the unfavourables.

CarlottaVance

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

It might be that Labour has a similar problem or worse, but you can't establish that either way on those numbers - you need to poll the strength of feeling of the unfavourables.

If the Tories were uniquely toxic - or substantially more toxic than Labour, would it not be odd for their favourable scores to be higher?

edmundintokyo

CarlottaVance said:

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

It might be that Labour has a similar problem or worse, but you can't establish that either way on those numbers - you need to poll the strength of feeling of the unfavourables.

If the Tories were uniquely toxic - or substantially more toxic than Labour, would it not be odd for their favourable scores to be higher?

Not particularly - it's perfectly plausible that a lot of people think the Tories are horrid and simultaneously that Ed Is Crap / Labour are a bit meh. Like I say for all I know Labour may have toxicity problems too, but to find out you need to poll intensity of dislike, which a net favourable score doesn't do.

Indigo

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT - I see the 'Toxic Tories' meme is once again at odds with the data:

Net Favourable:
Con: -16
Lab: -19

Cameron: -18
Miliband: -34

Osborne: -26
Balls: -39

I think 'Toxic Tories' is a Labour comfort blanket - a bit like the Nats and 'GOTV' - when all else says 'you've got problems' they reach for it and say, 'ah yes, but what about "Toxic Tories/GOTV"? (delete as appropriate).....

It might be that Labour has a similar problem or worse, but you can't establish that either way on those numbers - you need to poll the strength of feeling of the unfavourables.

If the Tories were uniquely toxic - or substantially more toxic than Labour, would it not be odd for their favourable scores to be higher?

Not particularly - it's perfectly plausible that a lot of people think the Tories are horrid and simultaneously that Ed Is Crap / Labour are a bit meh. Like I say for all I know Labour may have toxicity problems too, but to find out you need to poll intensity of dislike, which a net favourable score doesn't do.

I'm a bit dubious about that, otherwise it begs the question "how crap do you need to be to sway someone's vote". The implication of these polls is more people think EIC than DIT. Irrespective of the strength of that feeling one could suggest that anyone that felt Ed was even a little bit more crap than Dave was Toxic would vote Tory, and anyone who thought Ed was unbelievably crap would still vote Tory, a vote being in essence a switch not a scale.

I am aware that in reality most people dont behave like that, otherwise retail bankers and insurance companies would have gone out of business long ago, and people tend to stay with banks and insurers long after their offer became laughably bad compared to their competitors. However we will go crazy trying to determine the amount of relative crapness at which voters break for the alternative party, although it might be a fruitful area for research.

Indigo

When I used to do psychometric testing for kids we tried a line on a page 10cm long with a smiley face at one end and a sad face at the other and you ask them to put a mark where they feel on subject, perhaps we should try that "How do you feel about Ed", measure from the left in millimeters for your crapness rating

FluffyThoughts

FPT:

A number of interesting comments....

Encryption:

Bog standard using Windows DLLs and Java packages (see Deitel & Deitel). The point about NFC hand-overs of keys was interesting!

A plural for outliers:

A set of polls. Derh!

Ferguson:

Am in total agreement with Tim_B

Now what the [MODERATED] is this thread about...?

Indigo

FluffyThoughts said:

FPT:
Encryption:

Bog standard using Windows DLLs and Java packages (see Deitel & Deitel). The point about NFC hand-overs of keys was interesting!

Yes I hadn't thought about that. John Le Carre would have a fit, all those spies in 60's novels trying to drop a bit of paper into their contacts pocket as they brush past on the train, and now you can do it from halfway across the carriage without even knowing who is sending it to you.

FluffyThoughts

There is a problem with Scotland:

This has been taken from the Telegraph's Scotland 'news' comments [Src.: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11351776/Danny-Alexander-rejects-pre-Budget-oil-tax-break.html]

Alasdair Allan 11 hours ago

Here's a fact for you but I'm sure you'll ignore it like everything else.

Diageo runs approx 40% of the Scotch Whisky market. It is head-quartered Port Royal, London. This means that while Scotch must, by law, be manufactured in Scotland, 40% of the Excise Duty, 40% of the VAT and 40% of the Corporation Tax generated by the industry appears in the UK National Accounts as revenue generated by... London

As Excise duty and VAT are consumption taxes the post over-estimates the backwardness of your average ScotNat. Taxes on consumption are local to the nation which imposes them.

As to Corporation Tax: Amazon it. Whilst Royal-Dutch/Shell may be head-quartered in The Netherlands it has it's Registered-Office in London (summinck to do with due-goverance [IIRC]).

Maybe this is a good time for the Edinborough Parish Council to authorise genetically modified Oats. Anything to convince the Jockanese to grow a pair....

Indigo

The idiocy continues

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11353104/Ex-MI5-chief-Jonathan-Evans-warns-spy-laws-not-fit-for-purpose.html

“There will be some very radical proposals with regard to both the legislation and the transparency requirements, which we will be putting to Parliament and to the government over the next month or so,” he said.

Are they really going to rush through this badly thought out rubbish before the election !? Does he think it will get him the "law and order" vote ? Has allowed for losing the "behaving like a totalitarian idiot" vote ?

Indigo

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/11351010/State-should-offer-parenting-lessons-to-every-family.html

All parents should be offered state-funded classes in how to bring up their families in a bid to tackle rising levels of child obesity, mental distress and underachievement, one of Britain’s leading doctors has said.

Prof John Ashton, President of the UK Faculty of Public Health, called for programmes to be introduced across the country, and said "nanny state" interventions were needed to project the most vulnerable.

I suppose it hasn't occurred to him that the sort of parents that dont care about taking proper care of their children are the sort of parents that won't got to voluntary classes on parenting ?

john_zims

@Indigo

'Are they really going to rush through this badly thought out rubbish before the election !? '

What qualifications,knowledge or experience do you have to make that comment and how do you know it's rubbish?

FluffyThoughts

john_zims said:

@Indigo

'Are they really going to rush through this badly thought out rubbish before the election !? '

What qualifications,knowledge or experience do you have to make that comment and how do you know it's rubbish?

Encryption is two-a-penny. Restricting it would be like closing the barn-door after the start of the Grand-National.

Knowledge is available via the t'Internet. And, if that is restricted, I could - should I wish - build a suitable solution via Java/Google because I like paper!

The spies have work to do: That work should be to protect our freedoms and not to be too obvious. Sadly the last Labour gubbermint chose otherwise....

Indigo

john_zims said:

@Indigo

'Are they really going to rush through this badly thought out rubbish before the election !? '

What qualifications,knowledge or experience do you have to make that comment and how do you know it's rubbish?

You mean aside from being a professional programmer and formerly a security auditor for an international IT consultancy ? Because all the libraries are available from multiple sources online so any developer could generate a new secure app in a day or two. Because it doesn't make any damn difference with mobile phones because connecting a mobile phone to a public network in a public place is as near to anonymous as you can get, the illegal encrypted message gets sent, you can't read it, who are you going to arrest ? Someone with a mobile phone in a shopping centre in Leeds two days ago ?

Indigo

http://boingboing.net/2015/01/13/what-david-cameron-just-propos.html

This, then, is what David Cameron is proposing:

* All Britons' communications must be easy for criminals, voyeurs and foreign spies to intercept

* Any firms within reach of the UK government must be banned from producing secure software

* All major code repositories, such as Github and Sourceforge, must be blocked

* Search engines must not answer queries about web-pages that carry secure software

* Virtually all academic security work in the UK must cease -- security research must only take place in proprietary research environments where there is no onus to publish one's findings, such as industry R&D and the security services

* All packets in and out of the country, and within the country, must be subject to Chinese-style deep-packet inspection and any packets that appear to originate from secure software must be dropped

* Existing walled gardens (like Ios and games consoles) must be ordered to ban their users from installing secure software

* Anyone visiting the country from abroad must have their smartphones held at the border until they leave

* Proprietary operating system vendors (Microsoft and Apple) must be ordered to redesign their operating systems as walled gardens that only allow users to run software from an app store, which will not sell or give secure software to Britons

* Free/open source operating systems -- that power the energy, banking, ecommerce, and infrastructure sectors -- must be banned outright

David Cameron will say that he doesn't want to do any of this. He'll say that he can implement weaker versions of it -- say, only blocking some "notorious" sites that carry secure software. But anything less than the programme above will have no material effect on the ability of criminals to carry on perfectly secret conversations that "we cannot read".

CarlottaVance

"It's only the Scottish subsample".....but:

Lab: 31
SNP: 33

john_zims

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

Indigo

john_zims said:

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

Like ID Cards you mean.

Dont believe me then, here is Bruce Schneier, cryptographer, encryption expect, designer of several of the currently crypto algorithms and one of the world foremost experts on cyber security describing it as stupid.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/01/david_camerons_.html

CarlottaVance

One of Ed's former allies is being disobliging:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

One of Ed's former allies is being disobliging:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html

If Ed Balls knew about the global crash so far in advance then clearly we need this genius at the Treasury forthwith. Osborne must go! It is his patriotic duty to retire and sell wallpaper.

edmundintokyo

john_zims said:

@Indigo

'Are they really going to rush through this badly thought out rubbish before the election !? '

What qualifications,knowledge or experience do you have to make that comment and how do you know it's rubbish?

I haven't yet heard of one single person who understands how encryption works who's endorsing Cameron's position. The only people supporting this are people who don't understand it and are reasoning that there must be a sensible way to do what the government is proposing, because otherwise the government wouldn't be proposing it.

CarlottaVance

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Ed's former allies is being disobliging:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html

If Ed Balls knew about the global crash so far in advance then clearly we need this genius at the Treasury forthwith. Osborne must go! It is his patriotic duty to retire and sell wallpaper.

The first warnings on the UK Economy were in 2004. Balls was not prescient, but deaf.

Indigo

edmundintokyo said:

john_zims said:

@Indigo

'Are they really going to rush through this badly thought out rubbish before the election !? '

What qualifications,knowledge or experience do you have to make that comment and how do you know it's rubbish?

I haven't yet heard of one single person who understands how encryption works who's endorsing Cameron's position. The only people supporting this are people who don't understand it and are reasoning that there must be a sensible way to do what the government is proposing, because otherwise the government wouldn't be proposing it.

I am trying to convince myself that this is a "looking tough" act before election to firm up the "law and order" vote, and after the election he will see that it's completely idiotic and it will be quietly ditched. I am not succeeding at the moment.

Gadfly

Here's an update of my moving average YouGov charts.

Chart of YouGov polls for the last 12 months...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/taqykb8novmrf5v/YouGov polls 12 months to 18 January 2015.jpg#

During this period the averaged party shares have changed as follows...
Tory down from 32.8 to 31.8
Labour down from 38.8 to 32.8
LibDem down from 9.6 to 6.4
UKIP up from 12.4 to 16
Green up from 2 to 7

Chart of YouGov polls since the 2010 general election...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/59uhk5tr5x2i84f/YouGov Polls since 2010 GE as of 18 January 2015.jpg#

isam

Former head of MI5 says our anti terror laws are 'no longer fit for purpose'

'Al-Qaeda fundraiser from Leicester connected to seiges in France, uses Human Rights Act to stay in Britain

A convicted al-Qaeda terror fundraiser with links to the Paris attacks is residing in the UK after using the Human Rights Act to prevent his deportation back to his native Algeria, The Telegraph can disclose.

In a rare intervention, Lord Evans of Weardale, the former head of MI5, today warns that Britain’s anti-terror laws are "no longer fit for purpose", as it is becoming easier for jihadists plotting attacks to evade the intelligence services and the police.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11353243/Convicted-terror-leader-with-link-to-Paris-whom-we-cannot-deport.html?WT.mc_id=e_3843256&WT.tsrc=email&etype=frontpage&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2015_1_18&utm_campaign=3843256

ydoethur

john_zims said:

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

From all I know of MI5, I would frankly rather trust the Keystone Cops. At least their silly mistakes were not malicious.

edmundintokyo

john_zims said:

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

Note that "amateur sleuths" here means everybody who understands how encryption works. As for what MI5 are saying they think could/should be done, does anybody actually know? I haven't heard of a technically literate person they've put up to explain it, so anything they may have originally suggested is getting filtered through a PPE graduate with no particular interest in technology a notorious lack of attention to detail.

MikeK

Good Morning.
Poor old Tim Montgomerie is worried about internal democracy in the Tory party. Fancy That!

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/an-open-letter-to-the-party-chairman-let-members-approve-any-coalition-deal.html

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Ed's former allies is being disobliging:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html

If Ed Balls knew about the global crash so far in advance then clearly we need this genius at the Treasury forthwith. Osborne must go! It is his patriotic duty to retire and sell wallpaper.

The first warnings on the UK Economy were in 2004. Balls was not prescient, but deaf.

Really? And yet the Conservatives still planned to adopt Labour's spending plans.

FluffyThoughts

edmundintokyo said:

Note that "amateur sleuths" here means everybody who understands how encryption works. As for what MI5 are saying they think could/should be done, does anybody actually know? I haven't heard of a technically literate person they've put up to explain it, so anything they may have originally suggested is getting filtered through a PPE graduate with no particular interest in technology a notorious lack of attention to detail.

Apparently, according to the OU - many moons ago - fibre-optic information can be encoded by the sender and observered by the receiver, whilst both parties are able to analyse whether it has been read, changed or spoofed between-and-betwixt. If that is true I doubt that GCHQ have no solution to said such....

Alistair

Tim_B said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

God, I thought the whole Ferguson stuff had been left behind by the BBC. So what do I get when I turn on R5, Adrian Chiles has been doing a piece on African American's experience of police and he has just said "well what we got in places like Ferguson is unarmed African American's being dispatched".

The BBC just can't accept in that particular case that a detailed investigation has been conducted and his description is nowhere near what the report concluded happened (and nobody has found any issues with the evidence provided). The kid wasn't just dispatched, he committed a robbery, attacked a police officer and attempted to take his gun.

It is nearly as bad as the presenter on the night of the decision was "well that was the legal decision, but that isn't the moral decision".

He wasn't just attempting to take his gun but also to shoot its owner with it. He was high on something according to toxicology. Most people other than Al Sharpton and his fans accept that Wilson had no choice but to shoot.

The New York case of the man who was choke held and died for selling loose cigarettes is far more problematic. Selling loosies shouldn't mean a death sentence, even if the perp had serious health issues. The fact that the senior sergeant in command at the time was a black female doesn't alter the fact that this was an over reaction - but the mayor had told them to enforce this law, so the cops were caught in the middle. I would have thought there were grounds for charges against the cops on this one.

The witnesses at the Fergusson grand jury hearings are problematic - one of them that backed up the police's account of the incident gave multiple different accounts and is strongly suspected not to have been there:

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/19/ferguson-prosecutor-witnesses-darren-wilson-michael-brown

Here's another problematic case - man shot dead by police while buying air rifle.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/24/surveillance-video-walmart-shooting-john-crawford-police

MikeK

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/theresa-mays-child-abuse-inquiry-4997816

Theresa May's child abuse inquiry shame: Counting the days since Home Secretary promised victims justice.

FluffyThoughts

DecrepitJohnL said:

Really? And yet the Conservatives still planned to adopt Labour's spending plans.

Ignorant
M[ODERATED]
F[MODERATED]

Indigo

FluffyThoughts said:

edmundintokyo said:

Note that "amateur sleuths" here means everybody who understands how encryption works. As for what MI5 are saying they think could/should be done, does anybody actually know? I haven't heard of a technically literate person they've put up to explain it, so anything they may have originally suggested is getting filtered through a PPE graduate with no particular interest in technology a notorious lack of attention to detail.

Apparently, according to the OU - many moons ago - fibre-optic information can be encoded by the sender and observered by the receiver, whilst both parties are able to analyse whether it has been read, changed or spoofed between-and-betwixt. If that is true I doubt that GCHQ have no solution to said such....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-infiltrates-links-to-yahoo-google-data-centers-worldwide-snowden-documents-say/2013/10/30/e51d661e-4166-11e3-8b74-d89d714ca4dd_story.html

Alistair

john_zims said:

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

Do you have the faintest idea of how encryption works and how deeply embedded it is in the day to day operation of the internet?

MikeK

http://ukipdaily.com/british-future-state-nation-2015/

British Future – State of the Nation 2015

All PBers should read this.

FluffyThoughts

Alistair said:

john_zims said:

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

Do you have the faintest idea of how encryption works and how deeply embedded it is in the day to day operation of the internet?

When I first looked at encryption I was troubled by 'salt'. Assuming modern algorythms work the same way - and with 'dependency-injection' - I can only conclude that I am a sleeper for "SPECTRE"....

Indigo

Alistair said:

john_zims said:

@Indigo

I think most people would prefer to trust their safety to professionals in M15 and not amateur sleuths.

Do you have the faintest idea of how encryption works and how deeply embedded it is in the day to day operation of the internet?

cngra gylur unfab vqrnn gnyyk

perdix

MikeK said:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/theresa-mays-child-abuse-inquiry-4997816

Theresa May's child abuse inquiry shame: Counting the days since Home Secretary promised victims justice.

Kipper siding with socialists to bash the Tories.

JPJ2

Carlotta Vance:

"When do they (finally) publish Scottish NHS A&E Wait times? Most recent data is September......"

Whatever the data shows, one of the features of it will be that it will be better than the data for Labour run Wales.

The only-but very real- hope for Labour is the usual one of BBC Scotland not reporting that, but majoring as usual on the inevitable problems in NHS Scotland as if Scotland is in unique difficulty.

FalseFlag

Alistair said:

Tim_B said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

God, I thought the whole Ferguson stuff had been left behind by the BBC. So what do I get when I turn on R5, Adrian Chiles has been doing a piece on African American's experience of police and he has just said "well what we got in places like Ferguson is unarmed African American's being dispatched".

The BBC just can't accept in that particular case that a detailed investigation has been conducted and his description is nowhere near what the report concluded happened (and nobody has found any issues with the evidence provided). The kid wasn't just dispatched, he committed a robbery, attacked a police officer and attempted to take his gun.

It is nearly as bad as the presenter on the night of the decision was "well that was the legal decision, but that isn't the moral decision".

He wasn't just attempting to take his gun but also to shoot its owner with it. He was high on something according to toxicology. Most people other than Al Sharpton and his fans accept that Wilson had no choice but to shoot.

The New York case of the man who was choke held and died for selling loose cigarettes is far more problematic. Selling loosies shouldn't mean a death sentence, even if the perp had serious health issues. The fact that the senior sergeant in command at the time was a black female doesn't alter the fact that this was an over reaction - but the mayor had told them to enforce this law, so the cops were caught in the middle. I would have thought there were grounds for charges against the cops on this one.

The witnesses at the Fergusson grand jury hearings are problematic - one of them that backed up the police's account of the incident gave multiple different accounts and is strongly suspected not to have been there:

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/19/ferguson-prosecutor-witnesses-darren-wilson-michael-brown

Here's another problematic case - man shot dead by police while buying air rifle.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/24/surveillance-video-walmart-shooting-john-crawford-police

Surprise, surprise ignorant Alistair still banging his vast conspiracy theory. Just another case of the man keeping the brothers down. Of course having multiple corroborating witnesses who back up the actual forensic evidence will never be enough for you. Better to believe people who weren't even there than eye witnesses. Facts don't matter to loons like you.

Tedious.

DecrepitJohnL

JPJ2 said:

Carlotta Vance:

"When do they (finally) publish Scottish NHS A&E Wait times? Most recent data is September......"

Whatever the data shows, one of the features of it will be that it will be better than the data for Labour run Wales.

The only-but very real- hope for Labour is the usual one of BBC Scotland not reporting that, but majoring as usual on the inevitable problems in NHS Scotland as if Scotland is in unique difficulty.

Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH.

FluffyThoughts

Indigo said:

cngra gylur unfab vqrnn gnyyk

I have seen similar legacy 'secure' algorythms that may work on Windows but do not port to other, more popular, environments. My favourite is the MS-Word glyph "'". The 'mares at trying to store that in an Oracle database - UTF-8 or UTF-16 - just shows how little most IT-pros actually know....



EtA:That is a single-quote that has been embedded in a opening/closing double-quote. Most "connected" folk will recognise this.

MikeK

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

Indigo

perdix said:

MikeK said:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/theresa-mays-child-abuse-inquiry-4997816

Theresa May's child abuse inquiry shame: Counting the days since Home Secretary promised victims justice.

Kipper siding with socialists to bash the Tories.

If the Tories hadn't sat on it for 196+ days there would be nothing to bash tbh.

Indigo

FluffyThoughts said:

Indigo said:

cngra gylur unfab vqrnn gnyyk

I have seen similar legacy 'secure' algorythms that may work on Windows but do not port to other, more popular, environments. My favourite is the MS-Word glyph "'". The 'mares at trying to store that in an Oracle database - UTF-8 or UTF-16 - just shows how little most IT-pros actually know....

Secure my ass, that was rot13, a specific form of the code invented 2000 years ago by the caesars and solvable in 10-15 seconds using a cardboard wheel from a cornflake packet.

http://www.maths-resources.net/enrich/codes/caesar/images/caesarwheel3.gif

Indigo

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

Roger

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

volcanopete

The L/Ds are polling even worse it seems in Scotland.I've got them with 4 left out of 11 for GE2015 which is looking a tad over generous.Danny Alexander's decapitation by the SNP could be a good watch and looks more probable now-SNP 4-6 in Inverness
Ian Dale's 5 point bet on Libs getting less than half their current total looks sound though the value on their lost deposits has long gone.
GE 2015 will witness the death throws of a dying party.The "Lost Deposits" never had more meaning.

OldKingCole

Totally off topic, but help/advice appreciated. My son, resident abroad, is visiting the UK for a few days, has rented a car and used the Dartford Crossing. He doesn't want to pay the fee by phone as he's concerned that his card will be linked to his hire-car's licence plate, and the Gov.Uk site links to a payment site (payzone) which only allows a very limited number of visits and we appear to be a least 10 miles from a payment site.
Thoughts and advice appreciated.

philiph

Roger said:

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

Only those with selective memory that misremembers facts.

The Labour injection of cash to the NHS was started by an off the cuff promise from Blair on TV.

Indigo

Oops

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jan/15/-sp-secret-us-cybersecurity-report-encryption-protect-data-cameron-paris-attacks

A secret US cybersecurity report warned that government and private computers were being left vulnerable to online attacks from Russia, China and criminal gangs because encryption technologies were not being implemented fast enough.

But the document from the US National Intelligence Council, which reports directly to the US director of national intelligence, made clear that encryption was the “best defence” for computer users to protect private data.

calum

CarlottaVance said:

"It's only the Scottish subsample".....but:

Lab: 31
SNP: 33

The SNP have started publishing the YouGov/Sun aggregation for Scotland every Friday. No big change at the top - SNP 44% (+ 2%) - Labour 27 % (n/c). Interestingly UKIP are up 2% to 7%, I think they will continue to strengthen, would be interesting to know how this breaks down geographically.

http://www.snp.org/sites/default/files/news/file/yougov_samples.jpg

The sub-sample on 15/1 was SLAB 22% - SNP 49% !!

TheWatcher

Roger said:

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

A Labour government in 2010 would have slashed the money given to the NHS.

What health services do you think they would have cut?

FluffyThoughts

Indigo said:

Secure my ass, that was rot13, a specific form of the code invented 2000 years ago by the caesars and solvable in 10-15 seconds using a cardboard wheel from a cornflake packet.

http://www.maths-resources.net/enrich/codes/caesar/images/caesarwheel3.gif

And I have worked with the ANSI-256 version of it: As long as it works with Windows it works. Port to Java and you will get a lot of '?' in your encrypted string.*

The MS-Word glyph is a classic: In Word documents an apostrophy is UTF. If your Oracle database is not UTF - guess-what - you get an '?'.**

* Google it. Certain ''extended" characters don't work on MS-DOS/Windows.cmd
** Oracle databases are now 'Pure-Java'.

JackW

volcanopete said:

The L/Ds are polling even worse it seems in Scotland.I've got them with 4 left out of 11 for GE2015 which is looking a tad over generous.Danny Alexander's decapitation by the SNP could be a good watch and looks more probable now-SNP 4-6 in Inverness
Ian Dale's 5 point bet on Libs getting less than half their current total looks sound though the value on their lost deposits has long gone.
GE 2015 will witness the death throws of a dying party.The "Lost Deposits" never had more meaning.

Mrs Dale's Dairy doesn't have a stellar record in LibDemery forecasting, scared as he is by events on the coast of Norfolk in the recent past.

DecrepitJohnL

TheWatcher said:

Roger said:

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

A Labour government in 2010 would have slashed the money given to the NHS.

What health services do you think they would have cut?

Even if true, how many votes will this conjecture sway in GE2015 ?

Gadfly

OldKingCole said:

Totally off topic, but help/advice appreciated. My son, resident abroad, is visiting the UK for a few days, has rented a car and used the Dartford Crossing. He doesn't want to pay the fee by phone as he's concerned that his card will be linked to his hire-car's licence plate, and the Gov.Uk site links to a payment site (payzone) which only allows a very limited number of visits and we appear to be a least 10 miles from a payment site.
Thoughts and advice appreciated.

This may help...
http://www.bvrla.co.uk/advice/guidance/dartford-crossing-charge-change

Indigo

TheWatcher said:

Roger said:

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

A Labour government in 2010 would have slashed the money given to the NHS.

What health services do you think they would have cut?

http://www2.labour.org.uk/uploads/TheLabourPartyManifesto-2010.pdf
Labour Manifesto: "A Future Bankrupt For All"
Page 4:3
" and over the
next four years, we will deliver
up to £20 billion of efficiencies
in the frontline NHS, ensuring
that every pound is reinvested in
frontline care. "

Roger

I don't believe this poll is an outlier. From what I hear the gloss is rapidly fading from Nicola and as predicted Murphy is proving a smart operator. As Westminster's obviously a two horse race the Nat's are going to get squeezed. The desire to get rid of the Tories will always trump a wistful vision of what might have been. Also Murphy's brilliant poster won't have done any harm

surbiton

POLLING ALERT

The Latest AASSS [ Adjusted Aggregate Sub Samples Surbitonised ] is out.

Headlines:

Con 257 [257]
Lab 296 [298]
LD 26 [26]
UKIP 5 [ 4]
Grn 1 [ 1]
SNP 43 [42]
PC 3 [ 3]
NI 18 [18]
Spk 1 [ 1]

The adjustments have added 5 to LD, 5 to UKIP, 1 to PC from Con -8 and Lab -3.

The sub polls in Scotland did not change much except on the last day where SNP plunged to 33%. But, in aggregate, that did not make a big difference. In fact, SNP has gone up 1.The Scottish figures above are: Con 2, Lab 12, LD 2, SNP 43. According to bookies in individual seats: Con 1, Lab 34, SNP 21, LD 3.

Bookies nationally by individual seats: Con 275, LD 29, Con/LD 1, Con/Lab 1, Lab 295, SNP 21, PC 3, UKIP 5. NI 18, Spk 1.Grn 1

Indigo

FluffyThoughts said:

Indigo said:

Secure my ass, that was rot13, a specific form of the code invented 2000 years ago by the caesars and solvable in 10-15 seconds using a cardboard wheel from a cornflake packet.

http://www.maths-resources.net/enrich/codes/caesar/images/caesarwheel3.gif

And I have worked with the ANSI-256 version of it: As long as it works with Windows it works. Port to Java and you will get a lot of '?' in your encrypted string.*

The MS-Word glyph is a classic: In Word documents an apostrophy is UTF. If your Oracle database is not UTF - guess-what - you get an '?'.**

* Google it. Certain ''extended" characters don't work on MS-DOS/Windows.cmd
** Oracle databases are now 'Pure-Java'.

I used a cardboard wheel from a cornflakes packet, it does not introduce all those nasty errors

peter_from_putney

Are we to understand that last night's YouGov poll in the Sun on Sunday replaced YG's usual poll in The Sunday Times, as I have seen no reference to the latter?

OldKingCole

Gadfly said:

OldKingCole said:

Totally off topic, but help/advice appreciated. My son, resident abroad, is visiting the UK for a few days, has rented a car and used the Dartford Crossing. He doesn't want to pay the fee by phone as he's concerned that his card will be linked to his hire-car's licence plate, and the Gov.Uk site links to a payment site (payzone) which only allows a very limited number of visits and we appear to be a least 10 miles from a payment site.
Thoughts and advice appreciated.

This may help...
http://www.bvrla.co.uk/advice/guidance/dartford-crossing-charge-change

Thanks; Mr Gadfly. We're all a bit cross/concerned that the leasing company (a multi-national) don't have an account. He picked up the car late at night.
I know there's been a problem over charging subsequent users of hire-cars in Portugal.

SouthamObserver

Indigo said:

TheWatcher said:

Roger said:

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

A Labour government in 2010 would have slashed the money given to the NHS.

What health services do you think they would have cut?

http://www2.labour.org.uk/uploads/TheLabourPartyManifesto-2010.pdf
Labour Manifesto: "A Future Bankrupt For All"
Page 4:3
" and over the
next four years, we will deliver
up to £20 billion of efficiencies
in the frontline NHS, ensuring
that every pound is reinvested in
frontline care. "

Makes sense to me. It's a shame Labour seem to have retreated from this. Ring-fencing NHS spending is a great sound-bite, but the practical consequences mean that there are additional cuts elsewhere which actually put a far greater burden on the NHS than might otherwise be the case.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/07/-sp-bedblockers-worsening-nhs-hospitals-crisis

Sean_F

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.

isam

peter_from_putney said:

Are we to understand that last night's YouGov poll in the Sun on Sunday replaced YG's usual poll in The Sunday Times, as I have seen no reference to the latter?

It was an outlier that put UKIP on 18

Think everyone else was unchanged too

peter_from_putney

O/T
For those interested the DVD for "Boyhood", the 1/16 favourite to win the Best Picture Oscar, is released tomorrow and can be purchased from amazon.co.uk for the very modest sum of £9.99 (+ P&P)

MikeSmithson

peter_from_putney said:

Are we to understand that last night's YouGov poll in the Sun on Sunday replaced YG's usual poll in The Sunday Times, as I have seen no reference to the latter?

This will hopefully will be covered later but Scotland is so much more important in terms of potential seats losses and gains. Thus the change in the Panelbase poll for LAB represents less than 0.5% nationally on a GB basis but could equate to 20-30 seats.

My main poll reporting service is on my Twitter feed not PB.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB

Here I go for what I think is most significant in terms of the GE15 outcome.

JPJ2

Leadership in Scotland per this poll:

Sturgeon: Very or Quite Satisfied-42%
Very or Quite Dissatisfied-32%

Murphy: Very or Quite Satisfied-21%
Very or Quite Dissatisfied-33%

Not enough to offset the utterly dire approval ratings for Milliband in Scotland.

Perhaps worse still for Labour in Scotland is that a significant element of the population appear not to care whether the Tories or Labour win.

That potentially removes such people from being influenced by the only real card Labour have had to play for generation(s) in Scotland-"Vote Labour to keep the Tories out."

chestnut

Horrendous poll for the SNP, with only a mere 32 point turnaround in the polls since 2010.

The Yougov has had some shocking underlying 2010:2015 ratios for both Con and Lab over the last week.

The sample is starting to imply that Lab are polling 2010 numbers on those ratios. Tories are even worse.

What would a 30:30 outcome generate?

calum

peter_from_putney said:

Are we to understand that last night's YouGov poll in the Sun on Sunday replaced YG's usual poll in The Sunday Times, as I have seen no reference to the latter?

Both tables here:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2rm33oydgm/SOS_Results_150115_Website.pdf

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wt26kxdn72/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-160115.pdf

Interesting to note that the Sun have SNP 41% - SLAB 24%, whereas the ST split is SNP 33% - SLAB 31% !!

JackW

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.

And yet the Blues still poll a few points away from 2010 despite the mid teen presence of Ukip.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Hitchens is mad as a box of frogs, but he does sometimes make sound points. The threat to freedom of speech isn't just from gun-toting maniacs, but from politicians who are mendacious, weak, ignorant and unable or unwilling to stand up for hard won liberties.

Last plug of this: a free, short sci-fi story by me, the first of a mini-series that'll be released monthly over 2015:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-rebirth/

Edin_Rokz

JPJ2 said:

Carlotta Vance:

"When do they (finally) publish Scottish NHS A&E Wait times? Most recent data is September......"

Whatever the data shows, one of the features of it will be that it will be better than the data for Labour run Wales.

The only-but very real- hope for Labour is the usual one of BBC Scotland not reporting that, but majoring as usual on the inevitable problems in NHS Scotland as if Scotland is in unique difficulty.

From personal experience, talking to People on both sides, patients and staff, reading the papers, etc., etc., there are definitely major problems in the NHS in Lothian which are being discretely buried.

Other sources in other regions are suggesting similar problems.

It has to be remembered that the Health Secretary for most of the SNP's administration would be severely embarrassed if it was suggested that she had been doing more for "Freedoom" than she had on the day job.

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Hitchens is mad as a box of frogs, but he does sometimes make sound points. The threat to freedom of speech isn't just from gun-toting maniacs, but from politicians who are mendacious, weak, ignorant and unable or unwilling to stand up for hard won liberties.

Last plug of this: a free, short sci-fi story by me, the first of a mini-series that'll be released monthly over 2015:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-rebirth/

Trouble is Mr Dancer, it's difficult to distinguish when Mr H is mad as etc from when he's talking sense! And even when he doing the latter, he'd quite capable of over-egging the pudding!

JPJ2

Roger

"From what I hear the gloss is rapidly fading from Nicola and as predicted Murphy is proving a smart operator"

I had not read Roger's anecdotal wishful thinking before I posted about leadership in Scotland-though I feel he is in need of reading my comment more than I his :-)

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.

And yet the Blues still poll a few points away from 2010 despite the mid teen presence of Ukip.

The resilience of the blue core vote is impressive, and I can see that being critical, and more inclined to actually vote than the Labour core both North and South of the border.

Still looks like NOC to me though.

Indigo

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.

And yet the Blues still poll a few points away from 2010 despite the mid teen presence of Ukip.

The resilience of the blue core vote is impressive, and I can see that being critical, and more inclined to actually vote than the Labour core both North and South of the border.

Still looks like NOC to me though.

The key would seem to be the "Likelihood to Vote" for Conservatives is accurate. If the reality is that lots of people tell the nice lady on the phone they are sure to vote Tory, or push the 100% likely button on their browser, but when it comes to it, they stay on the sofa and watch Big Brother, the Tories are sunk.

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Hitchens is mad as a box of frogs, but he does sometimes make sound points. The threat to freedom of speech isn't just from gun-toting maniacs, but from politicians who are mendacious, weak, ignorant and unable or unwilling to stand up for hard won liberties.

Last plug of this: a free, short sci-fi story by me, the first of a mini-series that'll be released monthly over 2015:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-rebirth/

Read the short story. Like!

JPJ2

Edin Roz

"From personal experience, talking to People on both sides, patients and staff, reading the papers, etc., etc., there are definitely major problems in the NHS in Lothian which are being discretely buried. "

More anecdotal comment (just like Roger) which I do not doubt has sadly a basis in fact, but in political terms fails to recognise that recent polling has shown the SNP remain the most trusted on the NHS.

As I (almost) said elsewhere, only the institutional unionism of BBC Scotland is allowing Labour to attack the SNP while ignoring their own abject failure in Wales.

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.

And yet the Blues still poll a few points away from 2010 despite the mid teen presence of Ukip.

The resilience of the blue core vote is impressive, and I can see that being critical, and more inclined to actually vote than the Labour core both North and South of the border.

Still looks like NOC to me though.

Indeed.

My ARSE has been in NOC mode for over two years and the rise of the SNP make this outcome even more likely.

Sean_F

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2915032/PETER-HITCHENS-Don-t-like-PC-mob-makes-terror-threat.html

We are on the verge of founding Britain’s first Thought Police.
Using the excuse of terrorism – whose main victim is considered thought – Theresa May’s Home Office is making a law which attacks free expression in this country as it has never been attacked before.
We already have some dangerous laws on the books. The Civil Contingencies Act can be used to turn Britain into a dictatorship overnight, if politicians can find an excuse to activate it................

If that bill is as described its a complete disgrace. Can't see that many LDs voting blue when they find out about it either, I know quite a few blues that won't vote blue as well.

This government leaves no stone unturned in its efforts to stop blues from voting blue.

And yet the Blues still poll a few points away from 2010 despite the mid teen presence of Ukip.

The resilience of the blue core vote is impressive, and I can see that being critical, and more inclined to actually vote than the Labour core both North and South of the border.

Still looks like NOC to me though.

There's a fair number of Blue Liberals (10-15% of the Lib Dem vote from 2010) who partly offset losses to UKIP.

Roger

I heard a Lib Dem health minister being questioned this morning and saying after the election he wanted to increase spending on mental health. The interviewer asked if this was a pledge or an aspiration. He said it was a pledge.....

.....The Lib Dems are level with the Greens on 6%. Our democracy is clearly out of sync

TheWatcher

Indigo said:

TheWatcher said:

Roger said:

DJ

" Ironically, and perhaps unfairly, NHS in crisis stories will boost Labour. HTH."

It isn't really ironic. Most people understand that government is responsible for funding the NHS not for running it. Everyone remembers how Labour-Gordon Brown in particular-pumped massive amounts of money into the service saving it from the depleted service it was becoming and had become under Thatcher and Major.

A Labour government in 2010 would have slashed the money given to the NHS.

What health services do you think they would have cut?

http://www2.labour.org.uk/uploads/TheLabourPartyManifesto-2010.pdf
Labour Manifesto: "A Future Bankrupt For All"
Page 4:3
" and over the
next four years, we will deliver
up to £20 billion of efficiencies
in the frontline NHS, ensuring
that every pound is reinvested in
frontline care. "

Labour 'efficiencies' = Tory 'cuts'.

JackW

Roger said:

I heard a Lib Dem health minister being questioned this morning and saying after the election he wanted to increase spending on mental health. The interviewer asked if this was a pledge or an aspiration. He said it was a pledge.....

.....The Lib Dems are level with the Greens on 6%. Our democracy is clearly out of sync

In FPTP percentage share has little to do with democratic sync or equivalent seat levels.

Bums on seats Roger, bums on seats.

chestnut

Indigo said:

http://www2.labour.org.uk/uploads/TheLabourPartyManifesto-2010.pdf
Labour Manifesto: "A Future Bankrupt For All"
Page 4:3
" and over the
next four years, we will deliver
up to £20 billion of efficiencies
in the frontline NHS, ensuring
that every pound is reinvested in
frontline care. "

Sounds very much like they intended a top-down reorganisation.

Morris_Dancer

King Cole, indeed. It's easy to dismiss ideas because they come from people with whom one normally disagrees, or because they go too far. The reverse is even worse.

Glad you liked it

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, indeed. It's easy to dismiss ideas because they come from people with whom one normally disagrees, or because they go too far. The reverse is even worse.

Glad you liked it

Indeed, Mr Dancer. There is however a sometimes tedious process called triangulation. If someone regarded as more sensible is saying something similar then there's probably a cause for concern.
It's akin to the process about the possible. When all the possible alternatives are eliminated .......

Theuniondivvie

Marvellous to see the usual suspects deciding Panelbase is now the gold standard. Once you start upholding SLab as your last, great hope, I guess any reverse ferret is possible.

The Sunday Times seems to be taking a decidedly different view on the poll's implications compared to the headlines on here.

Jason Allardyce @SundayTimesSco · 59 mins 59 minutes ago
Dreadful poll findings for Scottish Labour in today's Sunday Times poll - Murphy not exactly Moses coming down Mount Sinai says John Curtice

Jason Allardyce @SundayTimesSco · 59 mins 59 minutes ago
SNP set to be Westminster kingmakers, says today's Sunday Times poll