I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP'.
Yes, who can forget those halcyon days of our landslide victory in 2001 and William and Ffion marching in triumph to No 10. A new day has dawned, has it not...
Disappointing post from you JohnO. I fought in all those elections under Hague and IDS, and voted for Cameron in 2005. I understood the need for reform.
So, if you'll forgive me, that's a little dismissive and patronising. Neither of us wants to be in the position where we feel we can no longer support the party we've backed our whole lives.
JohnO has to be seen to tow the party line until he is elevated to his rightful position of Baron O of Crap I Should Have Gotten Off 15 Stops Ago.
I think if a future Tory leader (or indeed Dave) came up with policies and priorities that Socrates approved of, the likes of yourself, myself, Scrapheap, DavidL would find it very difficult to remain in the Tory party.
So which of these do you disagree with and would cause you to leave the party?
- require judicial warrants for GCHQ searches - an emergency brake of 100k on EU immigration would be a red line in EU negotiations - they've started a national police investigation over street grooming
I struggle to believe you'd have a real issue with any of them. Your problem is that you just have a dislike for the sort of people that like UKIP and don't want us in the party. Then you're surprised when you don't win a majority.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP, the latter bearing no responsibility for 5-10 years of Miliband'.
Your attitude is the whole damn problem.
"It's all someone else's fault".
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
Miss Cyclefree, because we're accustomed to incompetence and a failure to confront radical Islam.
The fact a man proven to consider non-Muslims as animals [go to Youtube and search 'Mehdi Hasan animals', it should be the top video] can appear all over British media with it only very rarely being even mentioned is a disgrace. Consider if someone had said all Muslims were animals. They'd, rightly, never be invited to discuss anything, let alone Islamist terrorism or freedom of speech.
Then there's Rotherham and other such situations, the de facto blasphemy law (kudos to the BBC which reportedly showed the latest Hebdo cover) many in the media adopt, and rank cowardice from our political class.
Sadly, I think you're right. One would hope that the approach would change after what we have been seeing lately but I'm not certain even of that.
One thing struck me about the information which came out about the Paris killers was the links there were with the UK and radical/hate preachers here. There seem to me to be rather too many links between the UK and such killers. The French were certainly furious (and this does go back to the Major years) with the UK being slow about extraditing such people to France and other governments also complained to ours about the approach we were taking.
Possibly we're being a bit too tolerant. I know that people like Cameron/Blair are always going on about tolerance being a British value but it seems to me that an older British value is standing up to bullies.
At any event, thank God Bush didn't really go after every country which harboured terrorists. If he'd meant it, the UK would have been bombed to smithereens!
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP'.
Yes, who can forget those halcyon days of our landslide victory in 2001 and William and Ffion marching in triumph to No 10. A new day has dawned, has it not...
Disappointing post from you JohnO. I fought in all those elections under Hague and IDS, and voted for Cameron in 2005. I understood the need for reform.
So, if you'll forgive me, that's a little dismissive and patronising. Neither of us wants to be in the position where we feel we can no longer support the party we've backed our whole lives.
I'm afraid that's rather the default position of the current conservatives. Anyone who isn't with them is against them. They have no concept of the grey area where people might be enticed to vote for them.
They try to attract support with vinegar not sugar.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP, the latter bearing no responsibility for 5-10 years of Miliband'.
Your attitude is the whole damn problem.
"It's all someone else's fault".
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
And if you can't have that you will out of spite replace the shopkeeper with a dog food salesman with a red rosette.
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
Except the issue is that your party wants the banana customers as your own customers. You're like a green grocers that only sells apples, and gets angry when the people that want bananas go to the other green grocers down the road. And when someone suggests you sell bananas as well as apples, you say you refuse to, because that's what your competitors are about, and if the banana buyers insist on liking bananas, they're are all sodding awful anyway.
I think if a future Tory leader (or indeed Dave) came up with policies and priorities that Socrates approved of, the likes of yourself, myself, Scrapheap, DavidL would find it very difficult to remain in the Tory party.
So which of these do you disagree with and would cause you to leave the party?
- require judicial warrants for GCHQ searches - an emergency brake of 100k on EU immigration would be a red line in EU negotiations - they've started a national police investigation over street grooming
I struggle to believe you'd have a real issue with any of them. Your problem is that you just have a dislike for the sort of people that like UKIP and don't want us in the party. Then you're surprised when you don't win a majority.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP, the latter bearing no responsibility for 5-10 years of Miliband'.
Your attitude is the whole damn problem.
"It's all someone else's fault".
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
The French were certainly furious (and this does go back to the Major years) with the UK being slow about extraditing such people to France and other governments also complained to ours about the approach we were taking.
Possibly we're being a bit too tolerant.
Wasnt the complaint back then that British security services turned a blind eye to jihadists in return for an unstated commitment from them not to attack the UK. If that was ever the case it obviously didnt turn out too well.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP, the latter bearing no responsibility for 5-10 years of Miliband'.
Your attitude is the whole damn problem.
"It's all someone else's fault".
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
And if you can't have that you will out of spite replace the shopkeeper with a dog food salesman with a red rosette.
Except the shopkeeper could stay in his job if you just, along side the apples, ALSO SOLD BLOODY BANANAS.
Although I agree it looks quite plausible, I can't help thinking that they might more simply have just said 'we haven't got a clue how it will turn out'.
No more do any of us really.
But note how low the probability of an overall majority now is and how disproportionately high the probability of a Labour-led government is (if we treat the Lib Dem choice when they are kingmakers as 50:50, then a Labour-led government is roughly twice as likely as a Conservative-led government).
Not sure about that. Cameron is the incumbent PM, and in the central scenario has marginally more seats than Labour.
The analysis on the probability of various government permutations relies on the arithmetic of a formal majority - but what about the possibility that Cameron hangs on as the head of a minority administration?
Would Miliband really be able to herd his own backbenchers, the SNP, the Lib Dems and assorted odds and sods through the division lobbies to vote Cameron down?
As Brown reminded us in 2010, and Heath had earlier demonstrated in February 1974, our constitution, such as it is, gives enormous power to the incumbent PM in such finely balanced situations.
Miss Cyclefree, because we're accustomed to incompetence and a failure to confront radical Islam.
The fact a man proven to consider non-Muslims as animals [go to Youtube and search 'Mehdi Hasan animals', it should be the top video] can appear all over British media with it only very rarely being even mentioned is a disgrace. Consider if someone had said all Muslims were animals. They'd, rightly, never be invited to discuss anything, let alone Islamist terrorism or freedom of speech.
Then there's Rotherham and other such situations, the de facto blasphemy law (kudos to the BBC which reportedly showed the latest Hebdo cover) many in the media adopt, and rank cowardice from our political class.
There is also an element that certain ciche's in the media can do a lot of things with little to no repercussions.
Maguire's career was not impacted one tiny bit by the revelations of smear-gate, in fact he is probably on the telly more since then. Hari scandal, for many weeks he was giving huge backing, before finally the evidence became so overwhelming, and even now has been getting the massive soft soaping and media publicizing his book, etc etc etc
Compare and contrast to the reaction to the unfunny Dapper Laughs.
The Green party will probably have 50,000 members by the end of the weekend. The SNP will have 100,000 soon. Together they have more than the Tories which hardly seemed plausible 6 months ago.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP, the latter bearing no responsibility for 5-10 years of Miliband'.
Your attitude is the whole damn problem.
"It's all someone else's fault".
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
And if you can't have that you will out of spite replace the shopkeeper with a dog food salesman with a red rosette.
Except the shopkeeper could stay in his job if you just, along side the apples, ALSO SOLD BLOODY BANANAS.
Which is the more traumatic - apples instead of bananas -or dog food ?
The Green party will probably have 50,000 members by the end of the weekend. The SNP will have 100,000 soon. Together they have more than the Tories which hardly seemed plausible 6 months ago.
Is this surge the result of a deliberately-planned Green recruitment campaign, or is it a Twitterish-style spontaneous phenomenon?
The Green party will probably have 50,000 members by the end of the weekend. The SNP will have 100,000 soon. Together they have more than the Tories which hardly seemed plausible 6 months ago.
Is this surge the result of a deliberately-planned Green recruitment campaign, or is it a Twitterish-style spontaneous phenomenon?
I dont think you can plan to treble your membership in a year. It's a result of vastly increased coverage and a perception of unfairness over the debates.
Quick o/t question for the PB brain trust: I have a laptop (HP Folio 13 notebook) which I use for travel, and I have a couple of long flights to Asia coming up in the next couple of months which will way outlast the battery life. I don't relish spending the last 5 flight hours watching Big Bang Theory re-runs. Is it possible to charge up and carry a spare battery which I can plug into the power supply when the battery runs down? (Actually replacing the battery in the laptop isn't really feasible - it is secured by a dozen tiny screws, and messing with them in mid-flight is a bad idea). Where might I find such a thing?
The Green party will probably have 50,000 members by the end of the weekend. The SNP will have 100,000 soon. Together they have more than the Tories which hardly seemed plausible 6 months ago.
Amazingly the Tories have this still up on their website:
In just four years we’ve stood up for Britain in Europe and delivered real change by:
- Cutting the EU budget for the first time in its history – saving British taxpayers over £8billion - Vetoing a new EU fiscal treaty that didn’t guarantee a level playing field for British businesses - Taking Britain out of the Eurozone bailouts
1) Governments cave into EU 'shutdown' threat over spending increase
The European Union has voted through £2.3 billion in new cash contributions from national treasuries in an emergency decision that takes the cost of Brussels overspends and shortfalls to over £12bn this year.
Senior Liberal Democrats have lined up to praise David Cameron after the prime minister bowed to pressure from Nick Clegg and abandoned attempts to block eurozone leaders from enforcing a new fiscal compact through EU institutions.
3) UK faces added £1billion bill to bail out Greece and save crisis-hit euro
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories and Kippers were at their own and each others throats for at least 5 years, rendering themselves completely unfit to govern, and unelectable in the eyes of the ordinary voter.
An absolute certainty.
It all depends on how the Tories respond to a loss:
- They can choose a leader that blames for UKIP for "stealing" their votes, and call them racist and nasty and all the rest of it - They can choose a leader that says the party is responsible for its own performance, and that UKIP voters have many legitimate concerns and they hope to work with the party in areas of agreement in future.
If they chose the second, combined with a few easily done policy shifts, they could easily win the following election.
Roughly translated 'The Tory party must turn into UKIP'.
Yes, who can forget those halcyon days of our landslide victory in 2001 and William and Ffion marching in triumph to No 10. A new day has dawned, has it not...
Disappointing post from you JohnO. I fought in all those elections under Hague and IDS, and voted for Cameron in 2005. I understood the need for reform.
So, if you'll forgive me, that's a little dismissive and patronising. Neither of us wants to be in the position where we feel we can no longer support the party we've backed our whole lives.
So in 2005 you (like me and the party as a whole) learned the lessons of 2001 and 2005. The difference between us is that you seemed to have forgotten them all over again. Or, more likely, over the last ten years you have gravitated steadily and remorselessly to the right as is evident in your postings. That is entirely your prerogative and now you feel rather more at home in UKIP (whose leadership is ideologically essentially the Monday Club of yore).
Of course I'd rather you stayed and argued your case within: we remain a broad coalition. But you have made your choice to leave and hence don't ask or expect the rest of us (yes, TSE, Scrapheap, Richard N, Fitalass and several others on this Board to abandon mainstream Conservativism and join you on the fringe.
The most interesting finding so far from the Wings Panelbase is on whether England subsidises Scotland or not. The results below show why banging on about Barnet, oil price etc - is counterproductive and no one other than Tories and a few SLAB supporters care.
" THE OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE UK ARE SUBSIDISED BY ENGLAND
Quick o/t question for the PB brain trust: I have a laptop (HP Folio 13 notebook) which I use for travel, and I have a couple of long flights to Asia coming up in the next couple of months which will way outlast the battery life. I don't relish spending the last 5 flight hours watching Big Bang Theory re-runs. Is it possible to charge up and carry a spare battery which I can plug into the power supply when the battery runs down? (Actually replacing the battery in the laptop isn't really feasible - it is secured by a dozen tiny screws, and messing with them in mid-flight is a bad idea). Where might I find such a thing?
I am fairly sure you can get portable power supplies for laptops, try Amazon. Or just Google.
The French were certainly furious (and this does go back to the Major years) with the UK being slow about extraditing such people to France and other governments also complained to ours about the approach we were taking.
Possibly we're being a bit too tolerant.
Wasnt the complaint back then that British security services turned a blind eye to jihadists in return for an unstated commitment from them not to attack the UK. If that was ever the case it obviously didnt turn out too well.
Yes, it was. It backfired after going into Afghanistan. It is disgraceful how the very people we trusted to protect us knowingly allowed the UK to become a global hub for terrorism.
Quick o/t question for the PB brain trust: I have a laptop (HP Folio 13 notebook) which I use for travel, and I have a couple of long flights to Asia coming up in the next couple of months which will way outlast the battery life. I don't relish spending the last 5 flight hours watching Big Bang Theory re-runs. Is it possible to charge up and carry a spare battery which I can plug into the power supply when the battery runs down? (Actually replacing the battery in the laptop isn't really feasible - it is secured by a dozen tiny screws, and messing with them in mid-flight is a bad idea). Where might I find such a thing?
I am fairly sure you can get portable power supplies for laptops, try Amazon. Or just Google.
Have a look at powermonkey (google) or www.powertraveller.
I think if a future Tory leader (or indeed Dave) came up with policies and priorities that Socrates approved of, the likes of yourself, myself, Scrapheap, DavidL would find it very difficult to remain in the Tory party.
So which of these do you disagree with and would cause you to leave the party?
- require judicial warrants for GCHQ searches - an emergency brake of 100k on EU immigration would be a red line in EU negotiations - they've started a national police investigation over street grooming
I struggle to believe you'd have a real issue with any of them. Your problem is that you just have a dislike for the sort of people that like UKIP and don't want us in the party. Then you're surprised when you don't win a majority.
Comments
Would focus minds on living within means.
- require judicial warrants for GCHQ searches
- an emergency brake of 100k on EU immigration would be a red line in EU negotiations
- they've started a national police investigation over street grooming
I struggle to believe you'd have a real issue with any of them. Your problem is that you just have a dislike for the sort of people that like UKIP and don't want us in the party. Then you're surprised when you don't win a majority.
If you like what UKIP are offering, vote UKIP. If you like the Tory proposals go for them. It's pretty simple.
It's a bit like going to the green grocers, and announcing that you'd really like some apples but only if they can be made to taste of banana. Just buy the bananas, and be done with it.
One thing struck me about the information which came out about the Paris killers was the links there were with the UK and radical/hate preachers here. There seem to me to be rather too many links between the UK and such killers. The French were certainly furious (and this does go back to the Major years) with the UK being slow about extraditing such people to France and other governments also complained to ours about the approach we were taking.
Possibly we're being a bit too tolerant. I know that people like Cameron/Blair are always going on about tolerance being a British value but it seems to me that an older British value is standing up to bullies.
At any event, thank God Bush didn't really go after every country which harboured terrorists. If he'd meant it, the UK would have been bombed to smithereens!
They try to attract support with vinegar not sugar.
If anyone should do that it's Mr Cameron, as his operation gets all the oil money (other than business rates etc.).
The analysis on the probability of various government permutations relies on the arithmetic of a formal majority - but what about the possibility that Cameron hangs on as the head of a minority administration?
Would Miliband really be able to herd his own backbenchers, the SNP, the Lib Dems and assorted odds and sods through the division lobbies to vote Cameron down?
As Brown reminded us in 2010, and Heath had earlier demonstrated in February 1974, our constitution, such as it is, gives enormous power to the incumbent PM in such finely balanced situations.
Maguire's career was not impacted one tiny bit by the revelations of smear-gate, in fact he is probably on the telly more since then. Hari scandal, for many weeks he was giving huge backing, before finally the evidence became so overwhelming, and even now has been getting the massive soft soaping and media publicizing his book, etc etc etc
Compare and contrast to the reaction to the unfunny Dapper Laughs.
In just four years we’ve stood up for Britain in Europe and delivered real change by:
- Cutting the EU budget for the first time in its history – saving British taxpayers over £8billion
- Vetoing a new EU fiscal treaty that didn’t guarantee a level playing field for British businesses
- Taking Britain out of the Eurozone bailouts
1) Governments cave into EU 'shutdown' threat over spending increase
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10397885/Governments-cave-into-EU-shutdown-threat-over-spending-increase.html
The European Union has voted through £2.3 billion in new cash contributions from national treasuries in an emergency decision that takes the cost of Brussels overspends and shortfalls to over £12bn this year.
2) Lib Dems praise David Cameron for EU U-turn
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jan/31/lib-dems-david-cameron-eu
Senior Liberal Democrats have lined up to praise David Cameron after the prime minister bowed to pressure from Nick Clegg and abandoned attempts to block eurozone leaders from enforcing a new fiscal compact through EU institutions.
3) UK faces added £1billion bill to bail out Greece and save crisis-hit euro
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2104059/Greece-bailout-UK-faces-added-1bn-save-crisis-hit-euro.html
British taxpayers funded Ireland's £14bn bail-out
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9813358/British-taxpayers-funded-Irelands-14bn-bail-out.html
Britain faces a £3bn bill to save Portugal in another EU bailout
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1369390/Portugal-bailout-cost-UK-3bn-PM-Joe-Socrates-resigns.html
Of course I'd rather you stayed and argued your case within: we remain a broad coalition. But you have made your choice to leave and hence don't ask or expect the rest of us (yes, TSE, Scrapheap, Richard N, Fitalass and several others on this Board to abandon mainstream Conservativism and join you on the fringe.
" THE OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE UK ARE SUBSIDISED BY ENGLAND
Scotland
Agree: 18%
Disagree: 65%
Net agreement: -47
rUK
Agree: 51%
Disagree: 18%
Net agreement: 33
Scotland/rUK gap: 80 points "
If I set up a new party called the Bandwaggoners how long would it take to acquire 40,000 members?
And how long would it take to lose them?
N
Y
Where does that leave me?