John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 23s23 seconds ago Wm Hill says it has taken bets of $1600 and £600 on Clegg to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat. Odds cut from 2/7 to 1/4.
I told Mike on Tuesday night, that last week my father was phone polled about he intended to vote in Sheffield Hallam (he's a self identified Tory voter)
And would he be willing to vote tactically to save Nick Clegg.
I think the results of this private poll have been leaked.
I'd rate Clegg's chances of holding his seat at 95%.
Looking at a crude average of this month's polling, the Labour lead is now 1.2%, which I think is the tightest figure yet. Can the Conservatives inch ahead?
There's an odd mismatch.
Labour supporters/activists think they can topple Clegg, but everyone else thinks he'll hold on comfortably.
I'm wondering if Labour think their hatred of Clegg is shared by everyone, when it is isn't.
I don't think Clegg is hated at all, outside left-wing circles.
Even the infamous Oakeshott poll that had Clegg losing, in the supplementaries, had Clegg highly regarded by his constituents, not just the Lib Dem ones.
Which is what makes it so puzzling. The big question with the Lib Dems and from what I can tell the reason for their polling discrepancy 6-12% - how many of the don't knows will come back to them? ICM add on half I believe, but given the sheer number of don't knows this time, will that be accurate?
That Oakeshott/ICM poll in Sheffield Hallam didn't have the spiral of silence adjustment.
The boss of Survation when looking at the data tables said if it had been a named poll or with a spiral of silence adjustment then it would have shown Clegg holding on.
By that you mean giving the Lib Dems half the don't knows from last time? As I say I think the sheer number of don't knows this time will make that tricky. As for naming him, does that really apply to someone so high profile?
I initially opposed this just because of the civil liberties implications, but now it's quite clear from the experts that this could decimate the UK's tech sector if it goes through. What the hell is Cameron doing? Either he's being advised by security experts that don't understand the technology, or he just wants to pose as an authoritarian for electoral purposes?
I read in the Standard the other day that he'd even make the issue a red line in coalition negotiations. I'm not sure if this was the Standard getting it wrong because I haven't seen it elsewhere though.
Ironically, Britain twice gave up its lead in order to keep the spies happy (and our secrets flowing to Moscow).
First at the end of the war, when Churchill ordered Collosus to be destroyed, and in the 1970s when we discovered and suppressed what is now the RSA algorithm which underlies ecommerce. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)
So Cameron is following in a fine tradition of shooting Britain's economic foot off.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 23s23 seconds ago Wm Hill says it has taken bets of $1600 and £600 on Clegg to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat. Odds cut from 2/7 to 1/4.
I told Mike on Tuesday night, that last week my father was phone polled about he intended to vote in Sheffield Hallam (he's a self identified Tory voter)
And would he be willing to vote tactically to save Nick Clegg.
I think the results of this private poll have been leaked.
I'd rate Clegg's chances of holding his seat at 95%.
Looking at a crude average of this month's polling, the Labour lead is now 1.2%, which I think is the tightest figure yet. Can the Conservatives inch ahead?
There's an odd mismatch.
Labour supporters/activists think they can topple Clegg, but everyone else thinks he'll hold on comfortably.
I'm wondering if Labour think their hatred of Clegg is shared by everyone, when it is isn't.
I don't think Clegg is hated at all, outside left-wing circles.
Even the infamous Oakeshott poll that had Clegg losing, in the supplementaries, had Clegg highly regarded by his constituents, not just the Lib Dem ones.
Which is what makes it so puzzling. The big question with the Lib Dems and from what I can tell the reason for their polling discrepancy 6-12% - how many of the don't knows will come back to them? ICM add on half I believe, but given the sheer number of don't knows this time, will that be accurate?
That Oakeshott/ICM poll in Sheffield Hallam didn't have the spiral of silence adjustment.
The boss of Survation when looking at the data tables said if it had been a named poll or with a spiral of silence adjustment then it would have shown Clegg holding on.
By that you mean giving the Lib Dems half the don't knows from last time? As I say I think the sheer number of don't knows this time will make that tricky. As for naming him, does that really apply to someone so high profile?
Yes. As a rule leaders get a bounce.
That said Lord Ashcroft did tell me once that a poll that names some but not all of the major candidates distorts the poll in favour of those being named.
Mr. Socrates, each nation paying its way wouldn't go down well in Wales (2% of the wealth, 3% of the population). Mind you, historically we could count it as part of England [don't blame me, Welshmen, it was Edward, I think, who gave you a hiding]. That'd be unpopular too, I imagine.
If they're unhappy about it, they can declare independence or have the the option to be fully annexed by England. They'd still be allowed to keep Welsh as a regional identity, like the Cornish.
What the hell is Cameron doing? Either he's being advised by security experts that don't understand the technology, or he just wants to pose as an authoritarian for electoral purposes?
Maybe a bit of both of those, but one more possibility is that what he's actually trying to get is something less extreme but still unreasonable/ambitious, and announcing it after building up this crazy thing will make it sound reasonable and moderate.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 23s23 seconds ago Wm Hill says it has taken bets of $1600 and £600 on Clegg to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat. Odds cut from 2/7 to 1/4.
I told Mike on Tuesday night, that last week my father was phone polled about he intended to vote in Sheffield Hallam (he's a self identified Tory voter)
And would he be willing to vote tactically to save Nick Clegg.
I think the results of this private poll have been leaked.
I'd rate Clegg's chances of holding his seat at 95%.
Looking at a crude average of this month's polling, the Labour lead is now 1.2%, which I think is the tightest figure yet. Can the Conservatives inch ahead?
There's an odd mismatch.
Labour supporters/activists think they can topple Clegg, but everyone else thinks he'll hold on comfortably.
I'm wondering if Labour think their hatred of Clegg is shared by everyone, when it is isn't.
I don't think the left-wing vote is big enough to win the constituency, unless the Conservatives and UKIP do better than I anticipate, and split the non-Labour vote. Unlike somewhere like Manchester Withington, or Brent Central, the Lib Dem vote has held up well in local elections here.
And, party leaders usually get a bit of a boost in their own constituency. I don't think any of the party leaders (outside Northern Ireland) has lost since 1945.
I don't think Clegg is hated at all, outside left-wing circles.
One wonders if there is similar left-wing thinking going on it South Thanet with Farage and Murray.
If anything he'll help Farage win his seat.
Do we all definitely think Murray is definitely standing?
I can't see how he wouldn't given he's declared he will.
Lots of people dont do what they said they would do. Especially politicians. It looks like a new spin on his old schtick to me. I can see it selling tickets / dvds but why go to the bother of actually standing?
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 23s23 seconds ago Wm Hill says it has taken bets of $1600 and £600 on Clegg to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat. Odds cut from 2/7 to 1/4.
I told Mike on Tuesday night, that last week my father was phone polled about he intended to vote in Sheffield Hallam (he's a self identified Tory voter)
And would he be willing to vote tactically to save Nick Clegg.
I think the results of this private poll have been leaked.
I'd rate Clegg's chances of holding his seat at 95%.
Looking at a crude average of this month's polling, the Labour lead is now 1.2%, which I think is the tightest figure yet. Can the Conservatives inch ahead?
There's an odd mismatch.
Labour supporters/activists think they can topple Clegg, but everyone else thinks he'll hold on comfortably.
I'm wondering if Labour think their hatred of Clegg is shared by everyone, when it is isn't.
I don't think the left-wing vote is big enough to win the constituency, unless the Conservatives and UKIP do better than I anticipate, and split the non-Labour vote. Unlike somewhere like Manchester Withington, or Brent Central, the Lib Dem vote has held up well in local elections here.
And, party leaders usually get a bit of a boost in their own constituency. I don't think any of the party leaders (outside Northern Ireland) has lost since 1945.
I don't think Clegg is hated at all, outside left-wing circles.
One wonders if there is similar left-wing thinking going on it South Thanet with Farage and Murray.
If anything he'll help Farage win his seat.
Do we all definitely think Murray is definitely standing?
I can't see how he wouldn't given he's declared he will.
Lots of people dont do what they said they would do. Especially politicians. It looks like a new spin on his old schtick to me. I can see it selling tickets / dvds but why go to the bother of actually standing?
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 23s23 seconds ago Wm Hill says it has taken bets of $1600 and £600 on Clegg to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat. Odds cut from 2/7 to 1/4.
I told Mike on Tuesday night, that last week my father was phone polled about he intended to vote in Sheffield Hallam (he's a self identified Tory voter)
And would he be willing to vote tactically to save Nick Clegg.
I think the results of this private poll have been leaked.
I'd rate Clegg's chances of holding his seat at 95%.
Looking at a crude average of this month's polling, the Labour lead is now 1.2%, which I think is the tightest figure yet. Can the Conservatives inch ahead?
I wonder. The Conservatives have tried shooting off several bolts over the last few months, in almost the most favourable economic conditions they could have hoped for, but none have pulled them ahead into a consistent lead.
There's not many left for them to fire now.
I was looking at the polling in the run-up to the 1987 election. Labour remained only a couple of per cent behind the Conservatives up till February, giving them hope of a hung Parliament. Then, there was a big shift to the government. Of course, the Conservatives aren't going to finish up 11% ahead, but they should be able to manage some sort of lead in vote share.
I think you are rather overlooking the impact of Labour's disastrous Greenwich byelection at the end of February 1987. Without Greenwich I doubt that the Tory leaf would have been big enough for Thatcher to have been sufficiently confident to call an election for June that year.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 23s23 seconds ago Wm Hill says it has taken bets of $1600 and £600 on Clegg to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat. Odds cut from 2/7 to 1/4.
I told Mike on Tuesday night, that last week my father was phone polled about he intended to vote in Sheffield Hallam (he's a self identified Tory voter)
And would he be willing to vote tactically to save Nick Clegg.
I think the results of this private poll have been leaked.
I'd rate Clegg's chances of holding his seat at 95%.
Looking at a crude average of this month's polling, the Labour lead is now 1.2%, which I think is the tightest figure yet. Can the Conservatives inch ahead?
There's an odd mismatch.
Labour supporters/activists think they can topple Clegg, but everyone else thinks he'll hold on comfortably.
I'm wondering if Labour think their hatred of Clegg is shared by everyone, when it is isn't.
I don't think the left-wing vote is big enough to win the constituency, unless the Conservatives and UKIP do better than I anticipate, and split the non-Labour vote. Unlike somewhere like Manchester Withington, or Brent Central, the Lib Dem vote has held up well in local elections here.
And, party leaders usually get a bit of a boost in their own constituency. I don't think any of the party leaders (outside Northern Ireland) has lost since 1945.
I don't think Clegg is hated at all, outside left-wing circles.
Gwynfor Evans twice lost Carmarthe whilst leader of Plaid Cymru- 1970 and 1979. Gordon Wilson defeated at Dundee in 1987.
...makes more sense. You are then measuring the extent to which a leader is out-performing their party - under the assumption that the neutral position would have all supporters of a party satisfied with their leader and dissatisfied with the leaders of all the other parties.. Using the "certain to vote" figures:
I find it hard to accept a system that puts Clegg above Cameron, though, and I think your formula also puts Clegg too close to Cameron. The problem is that the unpopularity of the Lib Dems, and the popularity of the Conservatives, is at least partly because of their leader, and so one cannot use it to "adjust" the leader ratings.
I am glad you popped up with advice as I have the ideas for this kind of thing but need help in fine tuning them
I thought it odd that Clegg was so close to Cameron.. but maybe we are just poo pooing an unexpected finding because it is unexpected?
92% of people aren't voting for the Lib Dems but only 39% of people are dissatisfied w Clegg
Makes me think Clegg wasnt as loved as we thought he was in 2010 and isn't as hated now as people might think
Actually I messed up as I used Mikes "England only" VI so the real figures should be
59.63 Cam 42.9 Mili 56.12 Clegg 79.21 Farage
I'm trying to work out what a "neutral" score would be in your system? That is, the score received by a leader who is neither a particular asset, or handicap, to their party.
Yes me too!
May not work but might as well see what I come up with
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#BREAKING Hostages taken in post office in Paris suburb: police
"Still thinking about the next UK general election, which party, if any, will you vote for in your own constituency?"
Con 19%, Lab 25%, LD 5%, UKIP 13%, Green 4%, SNP 3%
p.45 of the PDF
First at the end of the war, when Churchill ordered Collosus to be destroyed, and in the 1970s when we discovered and suppressed what is now the RSA algorithm which underlies ecommerce.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)
So Cameron is following in a fine tradition of shooting Britain's economic foot off.
That said Lord Ashcroft did tell me once that a poll that names some but not all of the major candidates distorts the poll in favour of those being named.
I cant get too excited about the assumptions underpinning actuarial valuations of DB schemes in the private sector any more. That ship has sailed.
The Bulgarian government is perceived to be (and is) so inept and corrupt they actually prefer more EU involvement as a bulwark against it.
Currency pegging and bankers who mistake a trend for a natural law. What's worse?
May not work but might as well see what I come up with