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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS-BMRB has LAB retaining it’s 7% lead while YouGov has CO
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS-BMRB has LAB retaining it’s 7% lead while YouGov has CON and LAB level-pegging
It operates differently from all other firms. People are contacted face to face but then complete the survey online usually at home. It’s the way the firm selects its sample that makes it unique.
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TNS very odd scores and technique. Based on the overall range of polls, seems pretty level at the moment. A problem for Labour as NHS is their only card at all and they've used it too early and run the NHS in Wales.
First, may I apologise to both my avid readers for the absence of posts recently. I have been tied up with Jury Service. Naturally I ought not reveal details of the case I am on, but as it only involves a 100yo Scottish Jacobite, accused of using LibDems as filling for his custom-made pies I don't suppose anybody will care. He's plainly guilty anyway.
Meanwhile in my absence I see the Conservatives actually recorded a lead in one poll. Presumably this is what has caused their prices to shorten up in the various GE markets, despite the fact that all the other polls seem to be telling a slightly different story.
You can't keep those Blue punters down. Keep up the good work lads!
Bye for now, and if JackW drops in, send him my best wishes and tell him I'll come to visit him in prison.
Today's YouGov:
Lab vs Con:
Kind of society it wants broadly kind of society I want: -2
Led by people of real ability: -13
Prepared to take tough/unpopular decisions: -34
Seems to chop & change: -13
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1e1v63rcz6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-150115.pdf
Don't expect to see Ed Balls quoting this whilst he's in the US talking his country down.
The reason, actually, why I'm not trusting the TNS-BMRB is not because of the main parties but … the Greens. There is a lot of evidence that they are surging, rather falling back.
Nevertheless, it's always worth reminding oneself that a rogue poll is one you don't like.
Also the Scottish results on the "how do you feel about the party" questions are way out of whack with every where else, suggesting SNP surge is very very real
And I do hope you are enjoying your last hours of freedom. :-)
My appeal is on 8th May :
JackW Will Never Be Imprisoned
More seriously I suggest that the polls are still in a post-Christmas bubble. Or possibly bobble!
Is “life" really back to normal until about now? After the field-work was done? Further, those who participate in the annual Income Tax Filing Handicap may well find that their charges are lower this year, and consequently feel that they can stick with the current incumbents.
They are indeed unique.
That said: Which will appear first? The next General-Election or Brent-Crude at-or-under £30-a-barrel...?
I wondered why you were winking in my direction and dropped your white gloves and bent down to reveal ....
But the Guardian seem to think Sheffield Hallam University is in the constituency of Sheffield Hallam. It isn't
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/16/ed-miliband-1m-voters-fallen-off-electoral-roll
And who could have guessed it would be TNS-BMRB
Are you manning an bacon sandwich stall or flogging "JackW is Innocent" lapel buttons to the masses ?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html
1) The Tories ahead by 6%
2) Labour ahead by 7%
3) A tie
The only consistent thing in all the polling is that Ed's personal polling remains in the toilet whilst Dave soars ahead.
I thought I might go up to him and say "Can I have your autograph David?"
"We keep reading about 'the strength of the Labour brand" and how "Tories are toxic"
Today's YouGov:
Lab vs Con:
Kind of society it wants broadly kind of society I want: -2
Led by people of real ability: -13
Prepared to take tough/unpopular decisions: -34
Seems to chop & change: -13"
Doesn't that prove how strong the Labour brand is again the Tories? All those negative scores and yet it still manages to be level on voting intention?
The other thing that backs up your analysis is the spread prices.
The key point to grasp is that Tory toxicity is a defence not condemnation of Conservative policies. Look at your figures -- if the Conservatives have the best policies, the best leaders, or the best whatevers, then they ought to have a lead in the polls. That they do not is then put down to toxicity. It means you do not need to change your policies, just fix the marketing.
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/771506
http://www.mirror.co.uk/lifestyle/health/girl-can-sport-england-launches-4977251
Was going to watch Question Time, but a few minutes of listening to Mehdi Hasan's bullshit* persuaded me it'd only be irritating.
Not sure that drawing looks like Farage.
*He compared Mohammed cartoons to farting in a lift, ie not illegal just rude. Except that nobody confines you in a small space and rubs your face in a magazine. If you don't want to see Mohammed's cartoons you can just avoid the magazine. The equivalent to farting in a lift would be waving it around in a Muslim's face or invading a home/mosque and pasting it onto the walls.
Taken £50 on the Tories in Pompey North - looks a sound enough bet on your analysis and could do with another decent Tory punt.
If Dave is so great then why does he have the same leadership ratings as the supposedly 'divisive' Farage?
"I will be within 100 yards of Ed Miliband today."
Social climber
I don't know if she was right in 2013 or right now. What I do know is in 2013 the media tore the coalition a new one while lining up Labour telling us the world was about to end. Today ....... Nothing? Not a peep? Not even a passing reference and no Labour figures on our screens welcoming this good news.
Quelle surprise.
Lab now 1.98 Con 2.04
The LAB 2.00 was excellent value IMO
So put it this way why is Farage polling behind Cameron?
You're entirely right about media coverage being nonsense, however. It's depressing.
I sometimes think we have a more accurate picture of the past than the present. Imagine the news, presented by Polybius, Thucydides and Ammianus Marcellinus! [Hopefully with English subtitles].
I'm making progress.
Why does the Telegraph employ him?
I think bigging up the raw deal for the Greens meant it was always going to be six of one (Cameron) and half a dozen of the other (Miliband) on who was "frit". With the LibDems keeping their heads down in case people start saying "oi, Clegg - hang on a minute - what you doing there?"
"I was once sat opposite Caroline Flint on the train."
Smarten yourself up a bit and you could find yourself on a taxi rank that Esther McVey once stood at
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-forgotten-creed/#more-65567
It's part of a set of pieces from the latest Wings poll.
Outside Scotland, the next election boils down to voters answering this question: what would Labour do better than this lot? In essence - Labour- why would you take the risk? To my mind Labour has not made that case. Nowhere near. They have had over four years to do so and now have less than four months to dream up something. I thought it very telling on QT last night that when Anna Soubry was saying we needed to carry on clearing up the mess created by Labour, Wee Dougie just sat there without response. And this is the guy who has been at the heart of framing Labour's election campaign. Hmmmm....
Surely a better analysis would peg the leader rating to the party VI then compare?
For example in January 2010, Nick Clegg led David Cameron on the leader ratings by 13%, despite the Lib Dems trailing the Tories by 24% in the VI.
There are other examples.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30842676
The Tories have been accused of attempting split Labour's vote after an MP urged a constituent to back the Green Party.
Ed Miliband’s team fear an email from Jason McCartney, the Tory MP for Colne Valley, to a voter opposed to austerity, telling her the Green candidate who is the “only candidate who matches what you believe”, is evidence of a broader attempt to divide left-wing voters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/11349877/Is-this-evidence-of-a-Tory-plot-to-split-Labours-vote-MP-tells-voter-to-back-the-Greens.html
As a related aside, do pollsters actually ask those who they poll "are you actually registered to vote in the General Election?" If so, what proportion say no? If they don't - why ever not?
"This is also, in its way, relevant - suggesting that both parties have it badly wrong:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-forgotten-creed/#more-65567
It's part of a set of pieces from the latest Wings poll."
Very interesting. I'm sure that those attitudes won't be unfamiliar to Miliband which makes his reluctance to take a lead on anything so inexplicable.
But as that polling exists, the 'meh' get out doesn't work
I'm sure Ed's inner Socialist would agree with those policies - just his outer politician wants to get elected & knows there is no where near enough money to pay for re-nationalisation of the utilities & national rail.....
I'm a bit embarrassed about the last one.
For shame, Sean, For shame.
On the point I have quoted, the question that arises in my head is: who are you betting against?
The risk for you would be that there is a shrewd punter with relevant local knowledge.
Mind you, the Conservative policy to set fire to the internet is hardly a model of intellectual rigour.
Put it this way, I do a lot if work on analysing goalscorers worth to their team. In England obviously Costa and Aguero are the top scorers and most likely winners of golden boot, but in terms of worth to their team, Austin and Bony (when at Swansea) have much better ratings.
There are similar patterns all across European football.. In Germany the value isn't with the top scorers like Lewsndowski but with players who get big % of their teams goals like Alexandre Meier of Berlin
So it is worth pegging leader ratings to party VI I think to avoid giving a false impression
Ask about how these things should be paid for (SSE has a market cap of ~15bn on it's own) and you get different answers.
It's crappy polling because it doesn't ask a balanced question, total waste of money. But it's not being done to gather information, it's done to try and influence the debate
Messi score more goals than Charlie Austin, but that doesn't mean his worth to Barca is more than austins to QPR because barca score more goals and create more chances. If you ignore that you'd miss out on value bets,
READING WEST would be well worth doing I think.
Any country that votes 45% for the SNP is by definition very different from the one across the border (though admittedly the latter lot are not allowed to vote for a comparable set of policies).
Have a look at this -
http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-united-kingdom/#more-65499
More to come, anyway.