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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a yea

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,679
    Could Sky/C4 defy the Ofcom ruling and invite the Greens to the third debate? I think this would be popular with the public.

    But it would cause problems for both Cameron (how could he refuse?) and Miliband (how could he refuse?). BBC and ITV would have no cause to complain and would presumably go ahead with the 2 leader and 3 leader debates.

    I think this has a good chance of happening as long as the Ofcom ruling doesn't have the force of law.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Given Cameron's previous promises to have debates and his shiftiness now, who can blame people who think his referendum promise might not be all it seems if/ when the day arrives

    The polling says people think he is making excuses... UKIP should major on this parallel when Tories campaign on offering a referendum

    Don't worry Sam - Nige's new joint pen pal chum Ed won't be reneging on his promise not to have a referendum.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629

    Murray standing in Thanet S is great news for Farage, no ukip supporters will vote for Murray

    Absolutely right:
    (Although as Al Murray is likely to poll only a few hundred votes, it'll need to be a close race for it to have any effect)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909756/Married-teacher-took-16-year-old-girl-pupil-s-virginity-store-cupboard-spared-prison-judge-says-groomed-HER.html

    "In between sex sessions he made her Marmite on toast and they watched Bargain Hunt on television."

    Who says romance is dead ;p

    The age of consent is 16, although I get the impression a lot of people would like it to be 18 as it is in most of the United States.
    Is there polling data on that ?

    Edit: It IS 18 if you are in a 'position of trust' over the other party.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Barnesian said:

    Could Sky/C4 defy the Ofcom ruling and invite the Greens to the third debate? I think this would be popular with the public.

    But it would cause problems for both Cameron (how could he refuse?) and Miliband (how could he refuse?). BBC and ITV would have no cause to complain and would presumably go ahead with the 2 leader and 3 leader debates.

    I think this has a good chance of happening as long as the Ofcom ruling doesn't have the force of law.

    I can write the thread header for that news now - "Blow for Cameron as 5-3-2 debates go ahead" ...

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629
    ashley said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
    He didn't deliver on that (I personally think ti was a mistake to pledge on net immigration and on global). But he went for simplicity rather than something he could control all the elements.

    "he went for simplicity". Marvellous.

    Unless he's thick as two short planks, he knew it was a promise he couldn't possibly keep.

    File under no top down reorganisation of the NHS, eliminating the deficit, no raising of VAT, protecting frontline services, no Sure Start closures, the Big Society, you name it.

    So David Cameron is either stupid, or a smarmy barefaced liar. Or possibly both.
    I think I can point to things that Farage, Clegg, Milliband and Cameron have said that are clearly false.

    On that basis they are all either stupid, or smarmy barefaced liars.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    rcs1000 said:

    ashley said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
    He didn't deliver on that (I personally think ti was a mistake to pledge on net immigration and on global). But he went for simplicity rather than something he could control all the elements.

    "he went for simplicity". Marvellous.

    Unless he's thick as two short planks, he knew it was a promise he couldn't possibly keep.

    File under no top down reorganisation of the NHS, eliminating the deficit, no raising of VAT, protecting frontline services, no Sure Start closures, the Big Society, you name it.

    So David Cameron is either stupid, or a smarmy barefaced liar. Or possibly both.
    I think I can point to things that Farage, Clegg, Milliband and Cameron have said that are clearly false.

    On that basis they are all either stupid, or smarmy barefaced liars.
    Who has told "the most" porky pies though.

    Nick DID apologise for this tuition fees about-turn...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Barnesian said:

    Could Sky/C4 defy the Ofcom ruling and invite the Greens to the third debate? I think this would be popular with the public.

    But it would cause problems for both Cameron (how could he refuse?) and Miliband (how could he refuse?). BBC and ITV would have no cause to complain and would presumably go ahead with the 2 leader and 3 leader debates.

    I think this has a good chance of happening as long as the Ofcom ruling doesn't have the force of law.

    1. The Ofcom suggestion is out for consultation - it's not a "ruling".
    2. It does not affect the TV debates.
  • ashley said:

    Empty chair the cowardly slimeball.

    Ed knows he can't because he would then have to face Farage and he won't do that if Cam is not there.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I think that the FUKP should have seat at the debates
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ashley said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
    He didn't deliver on that (I personally think ti was a mistake to pledge on net immigration and on global). But he went for simplicity rather than something he could control all the elements.

    As
    "he went for simplicity". Marvellous.

    Unless he's thick as two short planks, he knew it was a promise he couldn't possibly keep.

    File under no top down reorganisation of the NHS, eliminating the deficit, no raising of VAT, protecting frontline services, no Sure Start closures, the Big Society, you name it.

    So David Cameron is either stupid, or a smarmy barefaced liar. Or possibly both.
    I think I can point to things that Farage, Clegg, Milliband and Cameron have said that are clearly false.

    On that basis they are all either stupid, or smarmy barefaced liars.
    Who has told "the most" porky pies though.
    ..
    As Dr Johnson observed, there is little point in settling precedence between a louse and a flea.....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited January 2015

    Do the Green supporters realise that it is more like a socialist workers party than a non toxic Lib Dem party?

    I haven't been a member of the Liberal Democrats, so I can't comment definitively on the validity of your assertion. Given the ex-supporters [members? I forget] of the Liberal Democrats I met through the short-lived Democracy 2015 thing I must say that I have my doubts.
  • Still this thread.... where's the big one.

    Farage vs Paul Nuttall/Murray
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @kle4

    ' but more likely he doesn't give a damn and everyone will see it that way.'

    You really think 'everyone' really gives a toss?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909756/Married-teacher-took-16-year-old-girl-pupil-s-virginity-store-cupboard-spared-prison-judge-says-groomed-HER.html

    "In between sex sessions he made her Marmite on toast and they watched Bargain Hunt on television."

    Who says romance is dead ;p

    The age of consent is 16, although I get the impression a lot of people would like it to be 18 as it is in most of the United States.
    I'd favour an approach where the age difference is taken into account.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Thinking about the youtube clip a bit more Milliband really did play that rather well. He committed to engaging in a cross-party debate with whoever the TV companies put up, which makes Cameron look like an idiot for calling him a coward, but he didn't commit to debating the Greens specifically which avoids any ambush gotcha style 1-on-1 debate with the Greens.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I see hundreds more people joined the Green party today - could be ahead of UKIP already.
  • Neil said:

    I see hundreds more people joined the Green party today - could be ahead of UKIP already.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRgHSxWnhqk
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    I think that the FUKP should have seat at the debates

    I doubt they'd trivialise their brand by appearing on the same platform as the LDs.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Neil said:

    I see hundreds more people joined the Green party today - could be ahead of UKIP already.

    Three parties have more of a membership than one party. Big whoop.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
    He didn't deliver on that (I personally think ti was a mistake to pledge on net immigration and on global). But he went for simplicity rather than something he could control all the elements.

    He didn't just "not deliver". He went backwards.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see they are genuinely going to go for this banning of encryption policy.

    F**k a duck,
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Socrates said:

    Neil said:

    I see hundreds more people joined the Green party today - could be ahead of UKIP already.

    Three parties have more of a membership than one party. Big whoop.
    I'm glad you're excited. You're usually so restrained and level headed.

  • NEW THREAD
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    It seems the BBC have decided Cameron is the slippery eel and the others can puff their chests out.

    OT. Today's Sid and Doris award goes to........

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908579/Orthodox-Israeli-newspaper-airbrushes-female-world-leaders-JeSuisCharlie-march-photographs.html
  • FernandoFernando Posts: 145
    It’s ridiculous to say he’ll be tagged as a ‘chicken’; more likely a calculating, foxy politician.
    The obvious response is to call his bluff and allow the Greens along.
    Having only the two leaders likely to become PM makes sense as a debate. If you move from that you should have all the parties with a seat in the Commons. After all any of them could be coalition partners or supporters of a minority administration, so it makes sense for us to hear their position on crucial issues.
This discussion has been closed.