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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a yea

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patrick Kidd ‏@patrick_kidd 18m18 minutes ago
    Great news that Al Murray (Bedford School) is standing against Nigel Farage (Dulwich College). Really shaking up the establishment
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I've no illusions about any of this - we are all looking for the most advantageous format. But Cameron does need to get debates, because with barely 100 days to go the polls aren't moving and he needs to roll the dice - exactly the same reason why Brown agreed, in fact. So I think they'll happen in the end, one way or another, and people would be wise to bet accordingly. (But do your own research etc.)

    DC's stance on debates suggests that the Tories are moderately relaxed about the polls. It's the one who has the most to lose who usually kiboshes debates - so it's surely telling that EM is all for them...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Do we know if the real-life Al Murray is a Leftie or reactionary?

    THat's the tension in his act and that is why this could backfire. At times Murray is clearly satirizing the Landlord's opinions, at other times that is less clear.
  • I first saw Al on the TV in the original incarnation of The Harry Hill Show, starring as Harry's brother "Alan Hill" :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CD13 said:

    Quite a good move by Al Murray. Only a deposit to lose and loads of free publicity. I'm surprised more don't don't do it.

    Could hoover up a lot of the NOTA/Kipper vote. 3rd place possible.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Socrates said:

    taffys said:

    ''Mr. Taffys, I'd watch them.

    This could have a few unintended consequences. Murray's an Oxford graduate, sharp as a tack. But in the end politics is serious.

    The danger is to the Tory. Libs and Labs who don't like Farage will vote for Murray, hoping to stick two fingers up to UKIP, and the Conservatives won't get the tactical votes.
    The dimmer Kippers will likely confuse the two, and vote for Murray as their true voice.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    How can you possibly label Milliband chicken when he said twice that he would debate whoever was put forward?

    Debate WITH whomever was put forward?
    Aye, cursed grammar - forever my nemesis.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Socrates said:

    taffys said:

    ''Mr. Taffys, I'd watch them.

    This could have a few unintended consequences. Murray's an Oxford graduate, sharp as a tack. But in the end politics is serious.

    The danger is to the Tory. Libs and Labs who don't like Farage will vote for Murray, hoping to stick two fingers up to UKIP, and the Conservatives won't get the tactical votes.
    The dimmer Kippers will likely confuse the two, and vote for Murray as their true voice.
    A sizeable number then ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Socrates said:

    taffys said:

    ''Mr. Taffys, I'd watch them.

    This could have a few unintended consequences. Murray's an Oxford graduate, sharp as a tack. But in the end politics is serious.

    The danger is to the Tory. Libs and Labs who don't like Farage will vote for Murray, hoping to stick two fingers up to UKIP, and the Conservatives won't get the tactical votes.
    The Tories have chosen a candidate, Craig Mackinlay, who's about as close to UKIP as you can be, without being UKIP.

    That might well be a good strategy, by keeping Con/UKIP waverers on board, but may ensure that any Labour/Lib Dem tactical voters won't back them. But then, I don't expect much tactical voting for the Conservatives.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    CD13 said:

    Quite a good move by Al Murray. Only a deposit to lose and loads of free publicity. I'm surprised more don't don't do it.

    Only works if you have a persona, really. That's why Stephen Colbert was the only one that did it in the USA.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2015
    FPT for Casino Royale and applies to this thread

    Socrates said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 39 mins39 minutes ago
    Senior Labour source:"David Cameron's position on the TV debates is an insult to chickens."

    Clearly Roger's "whole creative department " working on the project weren't the A team.
    The real chickens in British politics are those Kippers desperate not to have an in out referendum in 2017 and prepared to put Ed into Downing Street to stop the referendum happening.

    Why are the Kippers so frit?

    CCHQ really should employ me.
    I won't answer for the Kippers, but as a defector, I will admit: I think an in/out referendum would be lost in 2017, by an Indy Ref margin, pretty much whatever renegotiation "concessions" happen.

    Why?

    Because a positive, warm, and consistent vision for a UK post-EU by a credible individual (stand up, Dan Hannan) has not been made yet. The groundwork simply hasn't been put in. Farage alone, and a few Tory BOO'ers and the Express with hints from the Mail, won't be enough to win it. True, 35-40% of votes are probably more or less in the bag. But it's the other 10-15% that are not.

    The worst thing that could happen for withdrawalists would be to lose a premature referendum on this, because it would set back EU exit by 20 years. But I'm not sure you can call UKIP frit because Farage wants an EU referendum *this year* and thinks he can win it.

    So you can call him optimistic, or naive, maybe. But not frit.
    Thank you for your commendable honesty.

    You should fight the battles you can only realistically win.

    Sometimes it is better to lose a battle so you can win the war (insert a reference to Hannibal's ineptness at Zama)

    That's what Dave's doing re the debates.

    And Kippers are doing that re the 2017 referendum.

    It isn't cowardice, just the reality of the situation that you have more to lose than gain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Eagles, you mean the Battle of Asculum.

    *sighs*
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @schofieldkevin: Ladbrokes make @almurray 66/1 to win in South Thanet - ahead of the Lib Dems on 100/1.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Al Murray's a public school and Oxford graduate, so probably left wing.
  • I've seen Al Murray live a few times.

    He's going to hoover up the votes of the people who like none of the above (ie people who didn't vote last time and probably the Lib Dems)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I've seen Al Murray live a few times.

    He's going to hoover up the votes of the people who like none of the above (ie people who didn't vote last time and probably the Lib Dems)

    Sounds like bad news for Farage frankly - titter.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Cameron should stand his ground. OGH doesn't want the LibDums to take fire from the Greens.
  • TGOHF said:

    I've seen Al Murray live a few times.

    He's going to hoover up the votes of the people who like none of the above (ie people who didn't vote last time and probably the Lib Dems)

    Sounds like bad news for Farage frankly - titter.
    My favourite Al Murray joke

    What do you call a pointless race that covers 2,200 miles throughout France?

    The French.
  • I first saw Al on the TV in the original incarnation of The Harry Hill Show, starring as Harry's brother "Alan Hill" :)

    His catchphrase on that was: "If it's too hard, I can't understand it!"
  • isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TheMediaTweets: Will Al Murray now get his own BBC show, like Nigel Farage's Thursday night 'Question Time' programme?
  • So we have Bez from the Happy Monday's and The Pub Landlord standing...Bring back the Monster Raving Loony Party all is forgiven...
  • CD13 said:

    Al Murray's a public school and Oxford graduate, so probably left wing.

    Like most of the Tory party.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Plaintive 10-point appeal from the Muslim Council of Britain...

    http://www.mcb.org.uk/defend-beloved-prophet-let-us-exemplify-true-ideals-say-imams/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11275067/Who-said-it-Nigel-Farage-or-The-Pub-Landlord.html

    "They're both great pub philosophers - and now they're set to go head to head at this year's general election. Can you tell whether Nigel Farage or Al Murray's Pub Landlord character said the following quotes?"

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Neil said:

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    We had a common selection process for the nominee to the House of Lords when the Government indicated that might be on the cards. But let's not rule out the Scottish or Northern Irish Greens supplying the person to represent us all in the debates!
    That's true. I don't know much about the leaders/convenors in the Scottish or Northern Irish parties. Do you reckon one of them would come across better than Nathalie Bennett?
  • TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11275067/Who-said-it-Nigel-Farage-or-The-Pub-Landlord.html

    "They're both great pub philosophers - and now they're set to go head to head at this year's general election. Can you tell whether Nigel Farage or Al Murray's Pub Landlord character said the following quotes?"

    So, they're not the same person?
  • LOL.....

    Pub Landlord policy on NHS...If you turn up at A&E, and it is neither an accident or emergency, you will be sent to a random department of the hospital to be practiced on.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11275067/Who-said-it-Nigel-Farage-or-The-Pub-Landlord.html

    "They're both great pub philosophers - and now they're set to go head to head at this year's general election. Can you tell whether Nigel Farage or Al Murray's Pub Landlord character said the following quotes?"

    So, they're not the same person?

    Farage is a 3rd rate Pub landlord tribute act - like the Bootleg Beatles or Bjorn again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Thanet South is in danger of becoming a circus, I fear.
  • TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11275067/Who-said-it-Nigel-Farage-or-The-Pub-Landlord.html

    "They're both great pub philosophers - and now they're set to go head to head at this year's general election. Can you tell whether Nigel Farage or Al Murray's Pub Landlord character said the following quotes?"

    I scored 67%.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11275067/Who-said-it-Nigel-Farage-or-The-Pub-Landlord.html

    "They're both great pub philosophers - and now they're set to go head to head at this year's general election. Can you tell whether Nigel Farage or Al Murray's Pub Landlord character said the following quotes?"

    So, they're not the same person?
    How can a man in a velvet collared overcoat be a pub philosopher?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    RodCrosby said:

    Plaintive 10-point appeal from the Muslim Council of Britain...

    http://www.mcb.org.uk/defend-beloved-prophet-let-us-exemplify-true-ideals-say-imams/

    I saw the MCB leader on the BBC the other day saying their should be laws against defaming Muhammad. If that's representative of Muslims in the UK it's very worrying.

    PS. Loving a 7th century warlord and slaver more than your own children isn't something I'll ever understand.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    FPT for Casino Royale and applies to this thread

    Socrates said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 39 mins39 minutes ago
    Senior Labour source:"David Cameron's position on the TV debates is an insult to chickens."

    Clearly Roger's "whole creative department " working on the project weren't the A team.
    The real chickens in British politics are those Kippers desperate not to have an in out referendum in 2017 and prepared to put Ed into Downing Street to stop the referendum happening.

    Why are the Kippers so frit?

    CCHQ really should employ me.
    I won't answer for the Kippers, but as a defector, I will admit: I think an in/out referendum would be lost in 2017, by an Indy Ref margin, pretty much whatever renegotiation "concessions" happen.

    Why?

    Because a positive, warm, and consistent vision for a UK post-EU by a credible individual (stand up, Dan Hannan) has not been made yet. The groundwork simply hasn't been put in. Farage alone, and a few Tory BOO'ers and the Express with hints from the Mail, won't be enough to win it. True, 35-40% of votes are probably more or less in the bag. But it's the other 10-15% that are not.

    The worst thing that could happen for withdrawalists would be to lose a premature referendum on this, because it would set back EU exit by 20 years. But I'm not sure you can call UKIP frit because Farage wants an EU referendum *this year* and thinks he can win it.

    So you can call him optimistic, or naive, maybe. But not frit.
    Thank you for your commendable honesty.

    You should fight the battles you can only realistically win.

    Sometimes it is better to lose a battle so you can win the war (insert a reference to Hannibal's ineptness at Zama)

    That's what Dave's doing re the debates.

    And Kippers are doing that re the 2017 referendum.

    It isn't cowardice, just the reality of the situation that you have more to lose than gain.
    Also fpt

    And the real lemmings of British politics are those tories who hammer away at an internet charmlessness offensive against the Kippers, day after day, in order to minimise the probability of their returning to the tory fold between now and election day.

    Cameron's conduct over the Vow shows how far he can be trusted to act honourably and lawfully in what he perceives to be a crisis. Do you feel able to give a cast-iron guarantee that he would not behave in a similar manner in 2017?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:



    [edited] But the same is true of the English Greens. I can't vote for them here in Scotland. And Mr Cameron is terribly worried about them being included (though so he should be). Have a look at the analysis in the posting which I have just put.

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    I don't think you can say the same about the SNP and the English Democrats.
    But how do you know? they're separate parties and are entitled to have separate views - this is the whole point of the debate.
    No, the debate is between parties who are contesting elections against each other. To my knowledge the Scottish Green Party is not intending to stand in any seats that will be contested by the Green Party of England and Wales.

    Similarly, the British Labour Party was represented in the European Parliament debates by, I believe, a member of the SDP in Germany. The situation in the UK with respect to the different Green parties is broadly the same. Yes, they are separate parties, but they have a common ideology that unites them and sets them apart from the other parties. It isn't very complicated or problematical.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    Interesting to see UKIP have chosen as candidate for Basildon the person who contested Yeovil for Labour in 1979.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-30809586
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    Thats not fair. Farage has already realised that being a poor man's Oswald Mosley is a nice little earner.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    It hasn't worked out that way for Salmond and the SNP, has it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347

    Neil said:

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    We had a common selection process for the nominee to the House of Lords when the Government indicated that might be on the cards. But let's not rule out the Scottish or Northern Irish Greens supplying the person to represent us all in the debates!
    That's true. I don't know much about the leaders/convenors in the Scottish or Northern Irish parties. Do you reckon one of them would come across better than Nathalie Bennett?
    [if I may interject]

    Can't say re Ms Bennett, but in Scotland Patrick Harvie gave a pretty good impression during indyref, as well as polling as one of the most trusted/popular leaders - he usually seems to top the tables in the first three with Alec Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, though I'd need to check recent polling.

    THis also implies that a similar collective approach may be taken, though strictl yspeaking is open to interpretation either way -

    http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/ofcom-election-proposal-would-skew-coverage-says-harvie/

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    Thats not fair. Farage has already realised that being a poor man's Oswald Mosley is a nice little earner.
    Almost comical in your ignorance. Oswald Mosley supported a European fascist superstate.

    Must try harder in future.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:



    [edited] But the same is true of the English Greens. I can't vote for them here in Scotland. And Mr Cameron is terribly worried about them being included (though so he should be). Have a look at the analysis in the posting which I have just put.

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    I don't think you can say the same about the SNP and the English Democrats.
    But how do you know? they're separate parties and are entitled to have separate views - this is the whole point of the debate.
    No, the debate is between parties who are contesting elections against each other. To my knowledge the Scottish Green Party is not intending to stand in any seats that will be contested by the Green Party of England and Wales.

    Similarly, the British Labour Party was represented in the European Parliament debates by, I believe, a member of the SDP in Germany. The situation in the UK with respect to the different Green parties is broadly the same. Yes, they are separate parties, but they have a common ideology that unites them and sets them apart from the other parties. It isn't very complicated or problematical.
    They may well follow such an approach - see the linky I've just posted in my other posting to you.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Makes sense. Al Murray is probably more likely to win votes from middle-class Radio 4 listeners than potential UKIP types.
    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: Ladbrokes make @almurray 66/1 to win in South Thanet - ahead of the Lib Dems on 100/1.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited January 2015
    The way C4 have their alternative Christmas message, maybe they can run the alternative GE debate...Bez, Pub Landlord, Russell Brand....
  • Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Europe a Nation was a policy developed by British Fascist politician Oswald Mosley as the cornerstone of his Union Movement. It called for the integration of Europe into a single entity.

    The idea of a united Europe began to develop in the final days of the Second World War, where it was felt that the war had been a terrible waste of life and resources. Arguments began to appear claiming that the only way to avoid a repetition would be to tear down the divisions in Europe. These arguments, which initially appeared in Germany, informed much of Mosley's post-War thinking.

    Europe a Nation consisted of the idea that all European states should come together and pool their resources (including their colonies) to work as one giant superstate under a system of corporatism.

    Mosley summed up the arguments himself by stating that 'no lesser degree of union than that of an integral nation can give the will and power to act on the great scale.... No lesser space than all Europe, and the overseas possessions of Europe in a common pool, can give the room within which to act effectively'.[1] The notion also had an important geopolitical dimension as Mosley saw it as the only defence against Europe becoming the scene of the power struggles between the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War.


    The very ideas that caused the European Union, supported by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband, to be created of course .
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Al Murray standing for a p1ss up in a brewery, what a fuck up.

    Will The Electoral Commission let his party name stand?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-30819779
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Suppose one of the broadcasters grows a pair and decides that their debate will go ahead anyway without Cameron. The other parties would be mad not to do it. Cameron would be in deep doo-doo if he didnt turn up, or if he did. Lost both ways.
    As for whether the Greens should be included, personal view: yes, provided it looks like they are going to put up candidates in more than half the 650 seats, which I think they will. If the broadcasters use number of candidates as part of their assessment of who should be included, they might have a better basis for a decision. SNP and Plaid would never qualify for example, because they do not have sufficient geographical spread - and that feels right. Whereas UKIP and the Greens will be able to muster enough candidates to demonstrate wide national presence, so should be in. Mainly going by current MPs automatically rules out parties who are younger than 5 years old, so seems unfair to me,
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    We had a common selection process for the nominee to the House of Lords when the Government indicated that might be on the cards. But let's not rule out the Scottish or Northern Irish Greens supplying the person to represent us all in the debates!
    That's true. I don't know much about the leaders/convenors in the Scottish or Northern Irish parties. Do you reckon one of them would come across better than Nathalie Bennett?
    No comment.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: It's 11/10 for @almurray as The Pub Landlord to beat the Lib Dems in Thanet South. http://t.co/ZSi06RkhQM http://t.co/0qwTjFuzJz
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    Thats not fair. Farage has already realised that being a poor man's Oswald Mosley is a nice little earner.
    Almost comical in your ignorance. Oswald Mosley supported a European fascist superstate.

    Must try harder in future.
    Mosley was also an Irish Nationalist, while Farage is pro-Union.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited January 2015
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    We had a common selection process for the nominee to the House of Lords when the Government indicated that might be on the cards. But let's not rule out the Scottish or Northern Irish Greens supplying the person to represent us all in the debates!
    That's true. I don't know much about the leaders/convenors in the Scottish or Northern Irish parties. Do you reckon one of them would come across better than Nathalie Bennett?
    No comment.

    Aw, come on mate, you gotta have an opinion on <<upwards inflection>>that<</upwards inflection>>.
  • Socrates said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Plaintive 10-point appeal from the Muslim Council of Britain...

    http://www.mcb.org.uk/defend-beloved-prophet-let-us-exemplify-true-ideals-say-imams/

    I saw the MCB leader on the BBC the other day saying their should be laws against defaming Muhammad. If that's representative of Muslims in the UK it's very worrying.

    PS. Loving a 7th century warlord and slaver more than your own children isn't something I'll ever understand.
    Well a founding member and Chief Executive of Ramadhan Foundation isn't much better. Not only all the stuff over Maajid Nawaz, but he has some "interesting" ideas for some of the factors behind the Rotherham grooming scandal. And remember this is a guy who is held up as a moderate voice.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    CD13 said:

    Al Murray's a public school and Oxford graduate, so probably left wing.

    Like most of the Tory party.
    Public School? Like Farage - well we know that Farage ducked out of Oxford. Typical really.

    Satire is in the news and how we should all respect it, along with white vans, so good luck to Al, he will test the value of satire to destruction (hopefully Farage's).

    Al's father was a Colonel in WW2
  • Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I think that the Scottish Greens and Northern Irish Greens are sufficiently close in policy and outlook to the Green Party of England and Wales that they won't mind too much being represented in a UK-wide debate by their sister-party over the border, particularly if they are also represented in the Scottish/Northern Irish-only debates.

    We had a common selection process for the nominee to the House of Lords when the Government indicated that might be on the cards. But let's not rule out the Scottish or Northern Irish Greens supplying the person to represent us all in the debates!
    That's true. I don't know much about the leaders/convenors in the Scottish or Northern Irish parties. Do you reckon one of them would come across better than Nathalie Bennett?
    No comment.

    Nathalie Bennet = Crystal Swing

    Caroline Lucas = The Rolling Stones
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Must try harder in future.

    Some of the ludicrous nonsense would be criticisers of Farage come out with makes me think they'd do more damage shutting up.
  • Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    I don't see anything in that article, but does anybody have facts about where the new members are coming from? i.e is it outraged Labour and Left wing Lib Dem's quitting and joining the Green's, or is it totally new people who have been been affiliated to a political party?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Plaintive 10-point appeal from the Muslim Council of Britain...

    http://www.mcb.org.uk/defend-beloved-prophet-let-us-exemplify-true-ideals-say-imams/

    I saw the MCB leader on the BBC the other day saying their should be laws against defaming Muhammad. If that's representative of Muslims in the UK it's very worrying.

    PS. Loving a 7th century warlord and slaver more than your own children isn't something I'll ever understand.
    Well a founding member and Chief Executive of Ramadhan Foundation isn't much better. Not only all the stuff over Maajid Nawaz, but he has some "interesting" ideas for some of the factors behind the Rotherham grooming scandal. And remember this is a guy who is held up as a moderate voice.
    The only Muslim groups worth a damn in the UK seem to be Muslims for Secular Democracy and the Quilliam Foundation - and the latter have been criticised for not representing the views of British Muslims. Their defence wasn't that they did, but that they "never claimed to be a grassroots organisation".
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    And it's getting better. Hundreds joined the party the day the Ofcom consultation was announced. It's not completely inconceivable that the three parties will overtake the Lib Dems by the time of the GE.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Membership numbers from the article:

    Labour: 190,000
    Conservatives: 149,800
    SNP: 92,000
    Lib Dems: 44,576
    Ukip: 41,514
    Greens: 40,879
    Plaid Cymru: 8,000
    National Health Action Party: 4,691
    English Democrats: 2,500
    Left Unity: 2,000
    Britain First: 800
    BNP: 500

    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited January 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: It's 11/10 for @almurray as The Pub Landlord to beat the Lib Dems in Thanet South. http://t.co/ZSi06RkhQM http://t.co/0qwTjFuzJz

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP have chosen as candidate for Basildon the person who contested Yeovil for Labour in 1979.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-30809586

    Kippers seem to be in favour of an ever closer union with Labour, same personnel, same whining letters about debates.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: It's 11/10 for @almurray as The Pub Landlord to beat the Lib Dems in Thanet South. http://t.co/ZSi06RkhQM http://t.co/0qwTjFuzJz

    I'd be tempted to bet on the Lib Dems, no one will vote for a comedy/celebrity candidate, especially in a marginal.
  • Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    I don't see anything in that article, but does anybody have facts about where the new members are coming from? i.e is it outraged Labour and Left wing Lib Dem's quitting and joining the Green's, or is it totally new people who have been been affiliated to a political party?
    I'm speculating that it might be a Scottish surge.

    The Greens of Scotland were Pro-Independence so if the SNP are surging perhaps the Scottish Greens are as well.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909756/Married-teacher-took-16-year-old-girl-pupil-s-virginity-store-cupboard-spared-prison-judge-says-groomed-HER.html

    "In between sex sessions he made her Marmite on toast and they watched Bargain Hunt on television."

    Who says romance is dead ;p
  • Neil said:

    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    And it's getting better. Hundreds joined the party the day the Ofcom consultation was announced. It's not completely inconceivable that the three parties will overtake the Lib Dems by the time of the GE.

    Oooh, a harbinger for my Greens to outpoll the Lib Dems bet.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: It's 11/10 for @almurray as The Pub Landlord to beat the Lib Dems in Thanet South. http://t.co/ZSi06RkhQM http://t.co/0qwTjFuzJz

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP have chosen as candidate for Basildon the person who contested Yeovil for Labour in 1979.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-30809586

    Kippers seem to be in favour of an ever closer union with Labour, same personnel, same whining letters about debates.
    Maybe if Cameron had a debate with Farage, he could make that argument and win over voters?

    Except he won't, because he knows the counter-argument is much stronger, which isn't the case with Farage's arguments.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    It hasn't worked out that way for Salmond and the SNP, has it?
    That was like a grinning idiot stepping onto a rake and getting hit in the face
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: It's 11/10 for @almurray as The Pub Landlord to beat the Lib Dems in Thanet South. http://t.co/ZSi06RkhQM http://t.co/0qwTjFuzJz

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP have chosen as candidate for Basildon the person who contested Yeovil for Labour in 1979.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-30809586

    Kippers seem to be in favour of an ever closer union with Labour, same personnel, same whining letters about debates.
    Maybe if Cameron had a debate with Farage, he could make that argument and win over voters?

    Except he won't, because he knows the counter-argument is much stronger, which isn't the case with Farage's arguments.
    Yet Kippers polling has been dropping since September.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    I don't see anything in that article, but does anybody have facts about where the new members are coming from? i.e is it outraged Labour and Left wing Lib Dem's quitting and joining the Green's, or is it totally new people who have been been affiliated to a political party?
    I'm speculating that it might be a Scottish surge.

    The Greens of Scotland were Pro-Independence so if the SNP are surging perhaps the Scottish Greens are as well.
    There was a surge in Scotland. But membership in England and Wales has more than doubled in a year as well. The initial exclusion from the debates was a great recruiting sergeant. Let's hope it's a gift that keeps on giving.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    As support for the EU is at a twenty year high, Faragists are right to be frit of an early referendum. Do not go into a battle that you are going to lose:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3463/Support-for-EU-membership-highest-for-23-years-even-as-UKIP-rises-in-the-polls.aspx
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    MrsB, there's a risk of having the tail wag the dog with the broadcasters having a whip hand over the prime minister [NB I don't mean Cameron, but the position itself].
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    If the SNP were a UK party and had the same per capita membership across the UK as it has in Scotland, then it's membership would now total 1.1 million. It's phenomenal in comparison to the current membership rates of Labour and the Conservatives.

    This also somewhat distorts the figure for membership of the Green parties, because the membership of the Scottish Green party is about one-quarter that of the Green party of England and Wales. The Greens are doubtless well behind UKIP in terms of members in England.
  • Neil said:



    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    I don't see anything in that article, but does anybody have facts about where the new members are coming from? i.e is it outraged Labour and Left wing Lib Dem's quitting and joining the Green's, or is it totally new people who have been been affiliated to a political party?
    I'm speculating that it might be a Scottish surge.

    The Greens of Scotland were Pro-Independence so if the SNP are surging perhaps the Scottish Greens are as well.
    There was a surge in Scotland. But membership in England and Wales has more than doubled in a year as well. The initial exclusion from the debates was a great recruiting sergeant. Let's hope it's a gift that keeps on giving.

    Thanks, so it would be undemocratic to exclude the Greens from the debate.
  • TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: It's 11/10 for @almurray as The Pub Landlord to beat the Lib Dems in Thanet South. http://t.co/ZSi06RkhQM http://t.co/0qwTjFuzJz

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP have chosen as candidate for Basildon the person who contested Yeovil for Labour in 1979.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-30809586

    Kippers seem to be in favour of an ever closer union with Labour, same personnel, same whining letters about debates.
    Maybe if Cameron had a debate with Farage, he could make that argument and win over voters?

    Except he won't, because he knows the counter-argument is much stronger, which isn't the case with Farage's arguments.
    Yet Kippers polling has been dropping since September.

    Peak Kipper in ELBOW was week-ending November 2nd = 17.3%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Hard to argue with this piece really. Even if one accepts it is a worthy principle that the Greens be included, there is no way Cameron is taking a stand on the basis of that principle. At best he does agree with the principle which happily coincides with what he wants, but more likely he doesn't give a damn and everyone will see it that way.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Murray standing in Thanet S is great news for Farage, no ukip supporters will vote for Murray
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    As support for the EU is at a twenty year high, Faragists are right to be frit of an early referendum. Do not go into a battle that you are going to lose:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3463/Support-for-EU-membership-highest-for-23-years-even-as-UKIP-rises-in-the-polls.aspx
    Ipsos Mori's poll was clearly an outlier. Since it was published, 9 out of 14 polls show opponents of EU membership in the lead.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union
  • isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    Thats not fair. Farage has already realised that being a poor man's Oswald Mosley is a nice little earner.
    I thought it was a "Poundshop Enoch Powell"?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Piece on science, politics and cowardice:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30744203

    I think Nurse has a very good point. However, it's also true that politics has to reflect public sentiment.

    "Sir Paul said he appreciated politicians have to make decisions distinct from science, but argued they "must be honest" with scientists."
  • Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    LibDems not far ahead of the Greens either!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited January 2015

    Murray standing in Thanet S is great news for Farage, no ukip supporters will vote for Murray

    Everyones a comedian now !
  • For a moment, I imagined The Doctor saying that and not Malcolm Tucker
  • Cameron wants to keep the first & last debates & scrap the second, demoting The Libdems to the status of a Minor Party & reframing the final debate as The PM, sorrounded by squabbling nonentities. If he gets away with it, its a "clever" tactic.
  • ashleyashley Posts: 19
    Empty chair the cowardly slimeball.
  • Do the Green supporters realise that it is more like a socialist workers party than a non toxic Lib Dem party?
  • @sharpeangle: South Thanet Three Horse Race : To poll most votes: 6/4 Al Murray's FUKP; 7/4 Greens; 7/4 Lib Dems. #PubLandlord
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
    He didn't deliver on that (I personally think ti was a mistake to pledge on net immigration and on global). But he went for simplicity rather than something he could control all the elements.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Piece on science, politics and cowardice:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30744203

    I think Nurse has a very good point. However, it's also true that politics has to reflect public sentiment.

    "Sir Paul said he appreciated politicians have to make decisions distinct from science, but argued they "must be honest" with scientists."

    I didn't realise that Paul Nurse was a pseudonym.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    Given Cameron's previous promises to have debates and his shiftiness now, who can blame people who think his referendum promise might not be all it seems if/ when the day arrives

    The polling says people think he is making excuses... UKIP should major on this parallel when Tories campaign on offering a referendum
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Do the Green supporters realise that it is more like a socialist workers party than a non toxic Lib Dem party?

    Oh crap. Do you think they'll refund all my membership fees now you've explained the position to me?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited January 2015

    Do the Green supporters realise that it is more like a socialist workers party than a non toxic Lib Dem party?

    Given the Red Liberals did not like the LDs were not lefty enough, I should not think that many of them will mind, and the ones already there surely already know, as they are not shy about it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Cameron lapdogs accuse Farage of not wanting a referendum

    They say he should tell potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative as I understand it?

    (Rather like Enoch told Conservatives to vote Labour in 1974)

    But Farage thinks he should get as many seats as possible for UKIP and in the event of a hung parliament (which people on here think is about a 80-90% chance) he may then be in a position to demand a referendum earlier in return for supply and confidence.

    You may think he is strategically wrong, but accusing him of not wanting a referendum is plain lies. He has already stated his conditions should either side require supply and confidence from UKIP

    To claim to be pursuing a strategy that he knows perfectly well will scupper a referendum, while maintaining that it will enable a referendum, is plain lies.
    But, you overlook the fact that after a referendum UKIP's main purpose is over. Farage and co would eventually become unemployed. A referendum is not in Farage's best £ interests.
    As support for the EU is at a twenty year high, Faragists are right to be frit of an early referendum. Do not go into a battle that you are going to lose:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3463/Support-for-EU-membership-highest-for-23-years-even-as-UKIP-rises-in-the-polls.aspx
    Ipsos Mori's poll was clearly an outlier. Since it was published, 9 out of 14 polls show opponents of EU membership in the lead.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union
    The majority of the polls in 2014 do show support for staying in. None of the polls include NI, which may swing things.

    At the very least there should be a long campaign to smoke out the issues, indeed 2017 seems a good date to aim for, though with a Miliband government in power 2022 may be a reasonable aspiration for the other neverendum!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Neil said:

    Do the Green supporters realise that it is more like a socialist workers party than a non toxic Lib Dem party?

    Oh crap. Do you think they'll refund all my membership fees now you've explained the position to me?

    Not a chance, but cannot see you as a New Communist type. Still it takes all sorts.................
  • Neil said:

    Green Party membership on course to overtake Ukip's

    The party's membership has doubled since September to 40,879, just 635 behind Farage's party.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/green-party-membership-course-overtake-ukips

    And it's getting better. Hundreds joined the party the day the Ofcom consultation was announced. It's not completely inconceivable that the three parties will overtake the Lib Dems by the time of the GE.

    I'd imagine all parties will put on members as the GE approaches.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    @sharpeangle: South Thanet Three Horse Race : To poll most votes: 6/4 Al Murray's FUKP; 7/4 Greens; 7/4 Lib Dems. #PubLandlord

    I note not even FUKP are proposing uniforms for taxi drivers..

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Maybe if he wins a majority Cameron will have a referendum on EU membership

    ...but only if Luxembourg and Belgium have one too
  • ashleyashley Posts: 19
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    There are three debates. Cameron's "fall back" position is being happy to attend any debate except where he has to face Farage. That would make his cowardice towards UKIP particularly stark.

    You are very keen to throw around the word 'cowardice', when in fact this is a carefully-evaluated piece of game theory (on the part of all parties).

    But you know that, of course.
    But it's game theory, predicated on the basis of Cameron losing support to Farage if they had a debate. If Cameron was confident in his arguments, he would feel like a debate would be a good chance to show UKIP up and win supporters back. Then the game theory would look very different.

    But the whole "UKIP will lose support once their arguments are exposed to scrutiny" claim has evaporated. CCHQ knows that if Farage and Cameron are exposed to the same scrutiny on the same platform, it will be the latter that comes off the loser.
    They don't face the same scrutiny.

    Farage can say what he likes on the debate, offering the simple populist solutions without the constraints of either the market reacting to his comments or having to deliver it after the election.

    In a debate of that nature populism will often triumph over carefully thought out, nuanced positions
    Thought out positions like "immigration down to the tens of thousands, no ifs, no buts"?
    He didn't deliver on that (I personally think ti was a mistake to pledge on net immigration and on global). But he went for simplicity rather than something he could control all the elements.

    "he went for simplicity". Marvellous.

    Unless he's thick as two short planks, he knew it was a promise he couldn't possibly keep.

    File under no top down reorganisation of the NHS, eliminating the deficit, no raising of VAT, protecting frontline services, no Sure Start closures, the Big Society, you name it.

    So David Cameron is either stupid, or a smarmy barefaced liar. Or possibly both.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909756/Married-teacher-took-16-year-old-girl-pupil-s-virginity-store-cupboard-spared-prison-judge-says-groomed-HER.html

    "In between sex sessions he made her Marmite on toast and they watched Bargain Hunt on television."

    Who says romance is dead ;p

    The age of consent is 16, although I get the impression a lot of people would like it to be 18 as it is in most of the United States.
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