Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be deci

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

“”The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Good morning everyone! First!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015
    Afternoon :)

    This would seem to me to be the price you pay for "detoxification". All those retired colonels and blue-rinsed ladies that previously would be out pushing leaflets through door, or telling at the votes know when they aren't wanted. They hated gay marriage, the hated even more being patronised about it and being told they are dinosaurs, and they are going to vote with their sofas, by staying on them. That and his handling of the countryside http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9069211/rural-revolt/ and the likelihood that the Countryside Alliance wont campaign for him unless the foxhunting ban is in their 2015 manifesto, which it wont be.

    Cameron made a political decision, possibly even a principled one, but he is going to reap the whirlwind in form of his older small 'c' socially conservative grass roots not bothering to turn out for him. The problem of course is that it didn't work, because the same people that like his socially liberal policies, also hate his austerity, correct as (in my view) that policy is for the country. Most of those people will take the view that they can get the same socially liberal policies from EdM without the austerity (they are wrong), or at least a nicer austerity (they are deluded), or at least austerity with tea and sympathy (more likely).

    Conservatives will be able to pride themselves with being toxin-free, socially liberal, principled, caring members of her majesty's loyal opposition. Meanwhile EdM will continue to take any view that he thinks he can sell, and end up in Downing Street. Nice guys come last sadly.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015
    Mr Hitchins on the money again

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904968/The-sinister-screeching-mob-want-kill-free-speech-no-DON-T-mean-Islamist-terrorists-midst.html
    If reasonable calls for restrictions on immigration had been heeded when they were first made, right across Europe, would we now be in the mess we are in? If it is officially regarded as irresponsible, or ‘exploitation’, or ‘sickening’, or ‘divisive’ to say this, then we do not live in freedom, and those who claim to speak in its name are not telling the truth.
    Remember that bit Farage said about people who hold our passports and hate us ?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2905075/Hate-preacher-backs-massacres-says-Britain-enemy-Islam.html
    A British hate preacher backed the Paris massacres just hours after the bloody events unfolded and told his followers ‘Britain is the enemy of Islam’.
    Cleric Mizanur Rahman, of Palmers Green, north London, defended the brutal murder of 12 people at the Charlie Hebdo offices, saying ‘insulting Islam…they can’t expect a different result.’
    So let me get this right, we admit you to our country, care for your health, educate your children, protect your rights, defend your freedom to choose and practise your faith, and we hate you ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OGH,

    If everything is so gloomy for the Tories then the betting markets must be completely wrong,

    There's a fortune to be made!

    Why don't you go all in on a red majority? Bet @rcs1000's inheritance on it - I'm sure he won't mind!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Meanwhile back to reality again....

    Sky news on why Ed and Labour cost you money even before they get to the treasury "sweet shop"

    "The six firms which dominate the residential supply of energy - British Gas, which is owned by Centrica; EDF Energy; EON; Npower; Scottish Power; and SSE - argue privately that a pledge by Ed Miliband to freeze prices if Labour wins May's election has made it commercially risky to cut prices."

    As much as I want my bills down if somone threatened me with a two year price freeze in 5 months time at whatever price I had set in my business then not a cat in hells chance I would lower any prices. It would actually make me increase them. Labour just don't have a clue.
  • Thanks Mike for yet another characteristically anti-Tory thread .... were it ever thus on PB.com?
    Frankly I'd prefer to take my steer from the collective wisdom of Peter Kellner, Prof. Stephen Fisher and Ladbrokes' Shadsy, rather than from the comparatively little known Alex Deane.
    On this video clip dated 3 January for Channel 4 News (not known for its right of centre reporting), all three believe the Tories will be pretty much level with or ahead of Labour come the General Election:
    http://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-prediction-polls-modelling-tory-ukip-video
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Indigo said:

    Afternoon :)

    This would seem to me to be the price you pay for "detoxification". All those retired colonels and blue-rinsed ladies that previously would be out pushing leaflets through door, or telling at the votes know when they aren't wanted. They hated gay marriage, the hated even more being patronised about it and being told they are dinosaurs, and they are going to vote with their sofas, by staying on them. That and his handling of the countryside http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9069211/rural-revolt/ and the likelihood that the Countryside Alliance wont campaign for him unless the foxhunting ban is in their 2015 manifesto, which it wont be.

    Cameron made a political decision, possibly even a principled one, but he is going to reap the whirlwind in form of his older small 'c' socially conservative grass roots not bothering to turn out for him. The problem of course is that it didn't work, because the same people that like his socially liberal policies, also hate his austerity, correct as (in my view) that policy is for the country. Most of those people will take the view that they can get the same socially liberal policies from EdM without the austerity (they are wrong), or at least a nicer austerity (they are deluded), or at least austerity with tea and sympathy (more likely).

    Conservatives will be able to pride themselves with being toxin-free, socially liberal, principled, caring members of her majesty's loyal opposition. Meanwhile EdM will continue to take any view that he thinks he can sell, and end up in Downing Street. Nice guys come last sadly.

    There's something in that, but there's risk on the other side as well. The people we're talking about are an important part of the Tory machine - bedrock activists and reliable voters - but it's also a generation in decline; Long-term, relying on people uncomfortable with gays and foreigners, against a decades-long trend of people becoming more comfortable with gays and foreigners.

    What's messed up the strategy is that David Cameron was designed for times before the Lehman Shock, the aftermath of which has boosted the populist right everywhere. He's ended up compromising the detox message without really succeeding in winning these people back, making it hard for _anyone_ to get enthusiastic about him. Maybe the Tories would have been better off putting him in the deep freeze and running with somebody a bit more hard-edged for a bit, then defrosting him in 2020 or so with his brand unsullied.
  • " in the super-marginal where I live and vote my assessment is that LAB is in a better position than CON"

    Well if Bedford is classified as a "super-marginal" despite the odds against a Tory win being almost quadruple those on Labour, then yes, I feel sure you're right!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited January 2015
    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015


    There's something in that, but there's risk on the other side as well. The people we're talking about are an important part of the Tory machine - bedrock activists and reliable voters - but it's also a generation in decline; Long-term, relying on people uncomfortable with gays and foreigners, against a decades-long trend of people becoming more comfortable with gays and foreigners.

    As usual its the manner rather than the material, it would have been one thing to quietly push through the policy without a big song-and-dance, which would have been both smart and principled. Its quite another to use the opportunity to insult and rubbish loyal supporters and tell them they are dinosaurs, if feels very much as if the feeling that they they had no where else to go, which was both arrogant, and wrong. As the old saw goes "politeness costs nothing and the future is uncertain", you never know when you are going to need those people pushing leaflets and running your GOTV operation on the ground (not to mention voting for you!).

    What's messed up the strategy is that David Cameron was designed for times before the Lehman Shock, the aftermath of which has boosted the populist right everywhere. He's ended up compromising the detox message without really succeeding in winning these people back, making it hard for _anyone_ to get enthusiastic about him. Maybe the Tories would have been better off putting him in the deep freeze and running with somebody a bit more hard-edged for a bit, then defrosting him in 2020 or so with his brand unsullied.

    Yes, that might have worked, although its a gamble, I think there is an evens chance things will be worse in 2020, grExit, brExit, ItExit, the euro could disintegrate, the events in France might be the beginning of a long war of attrition, another banking crisis, plus all the things the Ed will manage to screw up if he gets in!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Charles said:

    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html

    Yes, but is he wrong ?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Meanwhile back in the real world......

    BBC news
    "Ed Miliband has called for a Living Standards Index to track how people's finances are affected by changes to wages, prices, taxes and benefits.
    Labour sources say it would mean a complete change in how the success of economic policy was measured."


    It seems then that having lost all the economic arguments, seeing everything they said would happen, not happen, including triple dips and millions unemployed they now have to resort moving goalposts to continue " talking Britain down" . Remember that little sound bite gem from Labour when anyone so much as dared to point out they were actually turning the country into a economic basket case.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30766452
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 6m6 minutes ago
    AFP: arson attack carried out on Hamburg office of German paper that printed #CharlieHebdo cartoons; police say nobody was hurt in attack
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html

    Yes, but is he wrong ?
    He's repeating received wisdom.

    Classic consulting approach. Limited value added, has a few relationships, talks a good game and bigs up his contacts.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html

    Yes, but is he wrong ?

    Nick Palmer corrected me the other day for inadvertently describing some Labour aide wonk as an aide to Milliband which was what the article purported. Apparently although an aide he was an outsider with no influence or knowledge etc etc. Sounds Familiar?? The guy was also wrong in his criticism of Miliband and Labour according to NPXMP .

    So using the precise same measure i guess this guy is also wrong..... Unless and as normal, the left want to have it both ways.

    Actually there was one major difference of course between the two. The scathing.criticism of Miliband and Labour did not warrant a full thread as this has done.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html

    Yes, but is he wrong ?
    He's repeating received wisdom.

    Classic consulting approach. Limited value added, has a few relationships, talks a good game and bigs up his contacts.
    .... and people are prepared to pay good money for such a service?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    You have to wonder at the stamina of OGH as he staggers out of the fleshpots of Bedford in the early hours and then composes and publishes the morning thread leader at 3am.

    Amazing ....

    .....................................................................................................

    Meanwhile ..... I'm always a little cautious about reports of the wonders of the ground game. I recall in 92 being advised that the fallout from the Poll Tax had decimated the Conservative grassroots and Kinnock was a dead cert for Downing Street. In a similar vein in 97 the seemingly now revived Conservative ground game would mitigate against severe losses to the Labour party.

    As Mike Smithson indicates the ground game varies vastly from seat to seat and probably only has an effect at the margin in most constituencies, albeit in a tight election that may be decisive.

    Nevertheless on one issue PBers may be certain :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html

    Yes, but is he wrong ?
    He's repeating received wisdom.

    Classic consulting approach. Limited value added, has a few relationships, talks a good game and bigs up his contacts.
    .... and people are prepared to pay good money for such a service?
    Usually big companies where management want someone else to blame for either unpopular decisions or if something goes wrong.

    (That said, I get paid reasonably well for my perspectives on a specific industry, so I'm not really one to talk!)
  • "You have to wonder at the stamina of OGH as he staggers out of the fleshpots of Bedford in the early hours and then composes and publishes the morning thread leader at 3am.

    Amazing ...."


    Indeed. Just as amazing in fact as the stamina exhibited by a 103 year old in writing about such matters on a political website in the early hours of a cold January Sunday morning.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "You have to wonder at the stamina of OGH as he staggers out of the fleshpots of Bedford in the early hours and then composes and publishes the morning thread leader at 3am.

    Amazing ...."


    Indeed. Just as amazing in fact as the stamina exhibited by a 103 year old in writing about such matters on a political website in the early hours of a cold January Sunday morning.

    Jack's lying about his age now as well?

    I thought he was at least 107 ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    "You have to wonder at the stamina of OGH as he staggers out of the fleshpots of Bedford in the early hours and then composes and publishes the morning thread leader at 3am.

    Amazing ...."


    Indeed. Just as amazing in fact as the stamina exhibited by a 103 year old in writing about such matters on a political website in the early hours of a cold January Sunday morning.

    Indeed so but I think you'll find @Moses down thread is somewhat older than 103 .... in fact outstripping all PBers by many years.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited January 2015
    @Charles

    'Classic consulting approach. Limited value added, has a few relationships, talks a good game and bigs up his contacts.'

    Some people took Derek Draper seriously.

    Reason 129 why the Tories can't win.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    As an aside - I know it is the small print in the picture you've copied from the article - but your thread is misleading.

    Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.

    He wasn't chief of staff to the PM, or even to the leader of the opposition. He's basically just another of those hangers on in politics, no one very significant

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/alexander-deane.html

    Yes, but is he wrong ?
    He's repeating received wisdom.

    Classic consulting approach. Limited value added, has a few relationships, talks a good game and bigs up his contacts.
    .... and people are prepared to pay good money for such a service?
    Usually big companies where management want someone else to blame for either unpopular decisions or if something goes wrong.
    Indeed, to the extent the skill is usually considered an optional extra. I worked for a large teleco several years ago that wanted to cut the cost of the consultants they currently contracted (which was a lot, from just about every big city consultancy you can think of), so the edict came down that anyone charging in at more than X (which was quite a big number) was out the door. As a result of which I lost two irreplaceably world class consultants from my team which set me back months, and kept a load of useless graduates in shiny suits. On balance I would have prefered to have booted 6-8 graduates and kept my two star players.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    "You have to wonder at the stamina of OGH as he staggers out of the fleshpots of Bedford in the early hours and then composes and publishes the morning thread leader at 3am.

    Amazing ...."


    Indeed. Just as amazing in fact as the stamina exhibited by a 103 year old in writing about such matters on a political website in the early hours of a cold January Sunday morning.

    Jack's lying about his age now as well?

    I thought he was at least 107 ;)
    Mrs JackW advised me a few years ago that like her good self I should be somewhat coy about my age.

    She tells me we have both just entered early middle age but I somewhat doubt either of us have the gusto of the mythical Bedford Behemoth as he holds court over the broccoli quiche eateries and the notorious beard and sandal nightclubs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    edited January 2015
    I know AD WAS close to DC, Once Upon a Time, but what’s he doing now? Is his a qualified opinion?

    Oh and Charles,(@0653) I’ve never been aware of Jack W being guilty of a terminological inexactitude. Wrong, on occasion, perhaps, but honestly so!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015

    I know AD WAS close to DC, Once Upon a Time, but what’s he doing now? Is his a qualified opinion?!

    http://democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=154
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Charles

    'Alex Deane was David Cameron's chief of staff in 2005, when he was shadow education spokesman.'

    According to his LinkedIn entry for 6 months.


    Chief of Staff to David Cameron

    Conservative Party

    May 2005 – October 2005 (6 months)

    Chief of staff to the Shadow Secretary of State for Education and Skills. Extensive campaigning and speechwriting work as a part of an active team, in addition to continuing responsibility for political analysis and research. Significant administrative and organisational responsibilities within a large shadow Parliamentary team.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Indigo said:

    I know AD WAS close to DC, Once Upon a Time, but what’s he doing now? Is his a qualified opinion?!

    http://democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=154
    Not overtly political, then.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I know AD WAS close to DC, Once Upon a Time, but what’s he doing now? Is his a qualified opinion?

    Oh and Charles,(@0653) I’ve never been aware of Jack W being guilty of a terminological inexactitude. Wrong, on occasion, perhaps, but honestly so!

    He's been at FTI Consulting (basically the old FinDyn) since 2005.

    It's as qualified as any other semi-involved person. Just not as significant as OGH is making out
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    I know AD WAS close to DC, Once Upon a Time, but what’s he doing now? Is his a qualified opinion?

    Oh and Charles,(@0653) I’ve never been aware of Jack W being guilty of a terminological inexactitude. Wrong, on occasion, perhaps, but honestly so!

    The only time I remember JackW being all-in bat-shit crazy wrong was in backing Margaret Beckett.

    Beckett. * snigger *

    Won't somebody rid me of this turbulent pest?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Charles said:

    I know AD WAS close to DC, Once Upon a Time, but what’s he doing now? Is his a qualified opinion?

    Oh and Charles,(@0653) I’ve never been aware of Jack W being guilty of a terminological inexactitude. Wrong, on occasion, perhaps, but honestly so!

    He's been at FTI Consulting (basically the old FinDyn) since 2005.

    It's as qualified as any other semi-involved person. Just not as significant as OGH is making out
    Not for the first time, Charles, I am obliged for your confirmation of my thoughts.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Slate Magazine just reprinted the Hitchens article written after the Danish Cartoons incident in 2006, he is still right.

    Cartoon Debate
    The case for mocking religion.
    By Christopher Hitchens

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2006/02/cartoon_debate.html

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Brilliant article in Spiked about what would have happened if Charlie was a British publication

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/what-if-icharlie-hebdo-i-had-been-published-in-britain
    Week 1: Magazine’s editors and staff get No Platformed by the National Union of Students on the grounds that their publication has been ‘identified by the NUS’s Democratic Procedures Committee as holding racist or fascist views’. They are forbidden from all campuses.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Indigo said:

    Slate Magazine just reprinted the Hitchens article written after the Danish Cartoons incident in 2006, he is still right.

    Cartoon Debate
    The case for mocking religion.
    By Christopher Hitchens

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2006/02/cartoon_debate.html

    Classic Sam Harris on a similar theme (his response starts about 2:00)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmPtH4IDFNQ
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Looking at the threader I think my browser must be redirecting me to Nyahnyahnahnyahnyah.com. Anyone else having similar problems?

    Nice to see a one-man anecdotal "assessment" from a super-marginal, though. If only someone were conducting systematic, scientific polling in these important seats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730
    edited January 2015
    OGH

    I'm interested to see that you think Labour are better organised than the Tories in Bedford. In Cannock, it's the polar opposite. I've had four contacts from the Conservatives to one from Labour (and the one from Labour was a generic 'insert name and achievements if any here and make the union wonk candidate nobody has ever heard of smile for airbrushed photo with Miliband'). Moreover, I live on a council estate, which is hardly what you would think of as 'promising territory' for them.

    Let's run through the issues in Cannock:

    1) The Conservatives have lost the lower-middle-class vote to Labour because of their economic policies, which have caused serious hardship to the local light industries and for the commuters working in Birmingham;

    2) UKIP topped the polls here in the Euro elections;

    3) The outgoing MP was very publicly sacked for the admittedly cretinous misjudgement of hiring a Nazi uniform for a stag do;

    4) This seat has historically been Labour, with rare exceptions, and the Conservatives as far as I can judge are about to lose it to them again.

    And yet, they are still undoubtedly making the effort. That may simply be because the candidate is a local man who has got his mates involved, but if the experience here is in any way typical I'd say that Wotzisface's analysis is far astray.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2015
    Ishmael_X said:


    Nice to see a one-man anecdotal "assessment" from a super-marginal, though. If only someone were conducting systematic, scientific polling in these important seats.

    How do you poll whether a constituency party will have a good a ground game? I mean, I think Ashcroft or someone did some stuff on whether you've got leaflets from each party, but that's a bit of a rough proxy. And do LibDem incumbents' leaflets even mention that they're LibDems these days?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited January 2015
    Another anti-Conservative thread is either prescient or a sign of desperation....... hohoho. However let us not shoot the messenger over a message with some truth.

    The state of the local party is a negative for the Conservatives. An area that Lord Feldman has failed in yet not been sacked. Good to be a mate of Dave's? If they had also tackled the problem of union subsidies, this problem would not have been so great. But they did not.

    What next, hope that the polls start to have a Conservative lead over Labour, there may yet be a feasting on the corpse of EdMiliband's career.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    JackW said:

    "You have to wonder at the stamina of OGH as he staggers out of the fleshpots of Bedford in the early hours and then composes and publishes the morning thread leader at 3am.

    Amazing ...."


    Indeed. Just as amazing in fact as the stamina exhibited by a 103 year old in writing about such matters on a political website in the early hours of a cold January Sunday morning.

    Indeed so but I think you'll find @Moses down thread is somewhat older than 103 .... in fact outstripping all PBers by many years.

    If we can both manage to write on thread " on a cold January Sunday morning " despite our age there must still be lead in the pencil yet.

    ** technical point - In my day we had to carve in tablets of stone you mere youngsters have it far to easy.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:


    Nice to see a one-man anecdotal "assessment" from a super-marginal, though. If only someone were conducting systematic, scientific polling in these important seats.

    How do you poll whether a constituency party will have a good a ground game? I mean, I think Ashcroft or someone did some stuff on whether you've got leaflets from each party, but that's a bit of a rough proxy. And do LibDem incumbents' leaflets even mention that they're LibDems these days?
    You don't, you ignore "superior ground-game" arguments altogether. Especially after 2014, when Yes was going to win Indyref on differential turnout and Reckless was going to succumb to the kitchen sink.

  • I thought, oh good, really interesting thread. but alas it is one sided.

    The points made are very valid, and Labour have good "machines" in seats such as Broxtowe and Bedford.

    However what about the other side of the coin?

    Labour membership has declined too and for the first time in decades, they face a fight in seats regarded as safe shoo ins (from UKIP and SNP). In these seats the organisation is by all accounts a shambles. How much will Labour be affected by having to redeploy decent campaigners from places like Bedford and Broxtowe to Gorbals West and Innercity East? On this, silence.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lord Ashcroft has tweeted that he is releasing his latest poll today at 4pm...

    Day early or premature tweeting?
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2015
    Indigo said:

    Brilliant article in Spiked about what would have happened if Charlie was a British publication

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/what-if-icharlie-hebdo-i-had-been-published-in-britain

    Week 1: Magazine’s editors and staff get No Platformed by the National Union of Students on the grounds that their publication has been ‘identified by the NUS’s Democratic Procedures Committee as holding racist or fascist views’. They are forbidden from all campuses.
    I rather doubt it.

    "As for freedom, here’s an interesting thing. The French Leftist newspaper Liberation reported on September 12, 1996, that three stalwarts of Charlie Hebdo (including Stephane ‘Charb’ Charbonnier) had campaigned in their magazine to collect more than 170,000 signatures for a petition calling for a ban on the French National Front party. They did this in the name of the ‘Rights of Man’.
    You, like me, may dislike the National Front greatly. But lovers of liberty simply do not seek to ban parties they do not like."


    Not exactly campaigners for liberty were they? Looks to me that they were hard left anti religious secularists. Which is why of course the great and good are so outraged at their assassinations.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904968/The-sinister-screeching-mob-want-kill-free-speech-no-DON-T-mean-Islamist-terrorists-midst.html

  • Labour certainly have a superior ground game in my neck of the woods. In 2010, in my seat we outnumbered them marginally but the huge input from the trade unions including delivering many thousands of postcards via first class mail to land on eve of polling certainly had an impact.

    5 years on many of the Tory activists have ducked out leaving us at a disadvantage and Ed M's union links and the stupid Conservative decision to run on further restricting strike ballots will surely see unions filling Labour coffers.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    Nice to see a one-man anecdotal "assessment" from a super-marginal, though. If only someone were conducting systematic, scientific polling in these important seats.

    How do you poll whether a constituency party will have a good a ground game? I mean, I think Ashcroft or someone did some stuff on whether you've got leaflets from each party, but that's a bit of a rough proxy. And do LibDem incumbents' leaflets even mention that they're LibDems these days?
    You don't, you ignore "superior ground-game" arguments altogether. Especially after 2014, when Yes was going to win Indyref on differential turnout and Reckless was going to succumb to the kitchen sink.

    Well this seems to be the point that Conservatives on here missed re Rochester

    In the by election, lets be honest, the Tories tried every trick in the book.. the primary was a way of providing extra publicity for their candidate while circumventing the rules on spending, Jim Messina was polling the constituency with leading questions smearing Reckless, and they threw the kitchen sink at it in terms of minister visits, activists etc

    UKIP won by a margin wider than most expected at the start of the campaign

    In May, when they have 649 other contests to resource, why should we expect them to regain the seat?

    One poll?

    Of course people will say, well UKIP have other seats to fight as well, and they do.. But you can bet your bottom dollar this will be one of the seats that UKIP are heavily invested in winning, and there are probably only 20 such seats in the country, if that

    I'll go 4/5 the Tories here in Rochester.. any PBer confident in a Kelly win can have as much as they like. Best price anywhere in the world. Roll up!

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Indigo said:

    Brilliant article in Spiked about what would have happened if Charlie was a British publication

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/what-if-icharlie-hebdo-i-had-been-published-in-britain

    Week 1: Magazine’s editors and staff get No Platformed by the National Union of Students on the grounds that their publication has been ‘identified by the NUS’s Democratic Procedures Committee as holding racist or fascist views’. They are forbidden from all campuses.
    I rather doubt it.

    "As for freedom, here’s an interesting thing. The French Leftist newspaper Liberation reported on September 12, 1996, that three stalwarts of Charlie Hebdo (including Stephane ‘Charb’ Charbonnier) had campaigned in their magazine to collect more than 170,000 signatures for a petition calling for a ban on the French National Front party. They did this in the name of the ‘Rights of Man’.
    You, like me, may dislike the National Front greatly. But lovers of liberty simply do not seek to ban parties they do not like."


    Not exactly campaigners for liberty were they? Looks to me that they were hard left anti religious secularists. Which is why of course the great and good are so outraged at their assassinations.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904968/The-sinister-screeching-mob-want-kill-free-speech-no-DON-T-mean-Islamist-terrorists-midst.html



    They also sacked one of their own cartoonists, when a shit-storm arose that something was "anti-semitic."

    They first asked him to apologize.

    "I'd rather cut my balls off!"

    So they sacked him...
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    I'm quite surprised by his comments. My inside perspective is that we're much better organised than 5 years ago, both nationally and regionally. The latter is particularly the case with some super-smart targeting of marginals.

    He may be right: I don't have the figures so I'm only going by what I see and know.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/11/tv-election-debate-wont-happen-david-cameron-determined

    Andrew Rawnsley seems certain the debates will not happen because of the conservatives
    and their experience of last time.
    I think the Conservatives are making the correct assessment.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Indigo said:

    Brilliant article in Spiked about what would have happened if Charlie was a British publication

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/what-if-icharlie-hebdo-i-had-been-published-in-britain

    Week 1: Magazine’s editors and staff get No Platformed by the National Union of Students on the grounds that their publication has been ‘identified by the NUS’s Democratic Procedures Committee as holding racist or fascist views’. They are forbidden from all campuses.
    I rather doubt it.

    "As for freedom, here’s an interesting thing. The French Leftist newspaper Liberation reported on September 12, 1996, that three stalwarts of Charlie Hebdo (including Stephane ‘Charb’ Charbonnier) had campaigned in their magazine to collect more than 170,000 signatures for a petition calling for a ban on the French National Front party. They did this in the name of the ‘Rights of Man’.
    You, like me, may dislike the National Front greatly. But lovers of liberty simply do not seek to ban parties they do not like."


    Not exactly campaigners for liberty were they? Looks to me that they were hard left anti religious secularists. Which is why of course the great and good are so outraged at their assassinations.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904968/The-sinister-screeching-mob-want-kill-free-speech-no-DON-T-mean-Islamist-terrorists-midst.html


    A new low in partisan silliness, surely? Anyone morally sane is outraged by assassinations of anyone by anyone. Are you suggesting that murdering god-botherers is in some way worse than murdering "hard left anti religious secularists"?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    isam said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    Nice to see a one-man anecdotal "assessment" from a super-marginal, though. If only someone were conducting systematic, scientific polling in these important seats.

    How do you poll whether a constituency party will have a good a ground game? I mean, I think Ashcroft or someone did some stuff on whether you've got leaflets from each party, but that's a bit of a rough proxy. And do LibDem incumbents' leaflets even mention that they're LibDems these days?
    You don't, you ignore "superior ground-game" arguments altogether. Especially after 2014, when Yes was going to win Indyref on differential turnout and Reckless was going to succumb to the kitchen sink.


    UKIP won by a margin wider than most expected at the start of the campaign


    An interesting statement and 100% wrong. UKIP won by a narrower than expected margin.

    I don't think Margaret Thatcher herself would have won the Rochester by-election against that defection. Let's see how it goes on May 7th before rushing out a judgement.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Another anti-Conservative thread is either prescient or a sign of desperation....... hohoho. However let us not shoot the messenger over a message with some truth..

    Yes Mike does tend to leap on anything he can possibly lay his hands on to show his bête noire, the Conservatives, performing less-than-perfectly. Closely followed I should say by UKIP.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    Sky reporting that intel (on ISIS) suggests the Paris attacks are just the prelude to a "wave of attacks across Europe"...
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4613736,00.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    Nice to see a one-man anecdotal "assessment" from a super-marginal, though. If only someone were conducting systematic, scientific polling in these important seats.

    How do you poll whether a constituency party will have a good a ground game? I mean, I think Ashcroft or someone did some stuff on whether you've got leaflets from each party, but that's a bit of a rough proxy. And do LibDem incumbents' leaflets even mention that they're LibDems these days?
    You don't, you ignore "superior ground-game" arguments altogether. Especially after 2014, when Yes was going to win Indyref on differential turnout and Reckless was going to succumb to the kitchen sink.


    UKIP won by a margin wider than most expected at the start of the campaign


    An interesting statement and 100% wrong. UKIP won by a narrower than expected margin.

    I don't think Margaret Thatcher herself would have won the Rochester by-election against that defection. Let's see how it goes on May 7th before rushing out a judgement.
    No it isn't

    At the start of any campaign, before any polling, 7.2% was a wider margin than UKIP were expected to win by.

    Prove me wrong
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky reporting that intel (on ISIS) suggests the Paris attacks are just the prelude to a "wave of attacks across Europe"...
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4613736,00.html

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/10/europe/charlie-hebdo-paris-shooting/
    French law enforcement officers have been told to erase their social media presence and to carry their weapons at all times because terror sleeper cells have been activated over the last 24 hours in the country, a French police source who attended a briefing Saturday told CNN terror analyst Samuel Laurent.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Another anti-Conservative thread is either prescient or a sign of desperation....... hohoho. However let us not shoot the messenger over a message with some truth..

    Yes Mike does tend to leap on anything he can possibly lay his hands on to show his bête noire, the Conservatives, performing less-than-perfectly. Closely followed I should say by UKIP.
    Then lots of pb Tories will make a ton of money off OGH when election bets are settled. Just rejoice at that news!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Casually looking on the Indy website to see if there might be a ComRes poll out (there isn't) I found out that some old twat wants to regulate (ie restrict) the publication of opinion polls. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pollsters-would-be-curbed-by-peers-new-regulation-bill-9970427.html?origin=internalSearch

    Such a touching attachment to democracy, from someone who accepted an appointment to sit in the legislature for life.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    I have never been in a political party, so I really don't know the answer to this. Do the activists normally campaign in their own constituency, or do they go out and about in marginals? If the latter, one might think the Tories might have more money to spend on travel and accommodation expenses.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Why does OGH have to be balanced and why shouldn't he talk up his book ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @sundersays: Disgraced ex-MP Neil Hamilton "will not be a candidate". UKIP national exec has told him he is too toxic to stand (Atticus, Sunday Times)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    French PM making some unhelpful comments.

    "France is now at war with radical Islam. We are all Charlie now....We are all Jews."

    And what of the Muslims, who constituted at least one of the victims and one of the heroes of this event?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky reporting that intel (on ISIS) suggests the Paris attacks are just the prelude to a "wave of attacks across Europe"...
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4613736,00.html

    The German paper that republished the cartoons suffered an arson attack.

    ┌∩┐(◣_◢)┌∩┐ to the terrorists.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Yorkcity said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/11/tv-election-debate-wont-happen-david-cameron-determined

    Andrew Rawnsley seems certain the debates will not happen because of the conservatives
    and their experience of last time.
    I think the Conservatives are making the correct assessment.

    Why? What did happen last time? The Cleggasm that fizzled out? Gordon Brown was acclaimed a TV natural and offered Ann Widdecombe's spot on Strictly Come Dancing? From Rawnsley's piece, it seems the Conservatives' opposition to debates is based on a false narrative of why they did not clearly win the 2010 election.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    RodCrosby said:

    French PM making some unhelpful comments.

    "France is now at war with radical Islam. We are all Charlie now....We are all Jews."

    And what of the Muslims, who constituted at least one of the victims and one of the heroes of this event?

    Obviously thinks he's found his 9/11 reelection boost.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Casually looking on the Indy website to see if there might be a ComRes poll out (there isn't) I found out that some old twat wants to regulate (ie restrict) the publication of opinion polls. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pollsters-would-be-curbed-by-peers-new-regulation-bill-9970427.html?origin=internalSearch

    Such a touching attachment to democracy, from someone who accepted an appointment to sit in the legislature for life.

    I think you have your wires crossed there. The proposal is clearly idiotic, but has nothing to do with democracy as it doesn't stop you from voting or restrict your voting choices.

    The reason it stupid is the same reason the French decided to scrap their equivalent law, not least of which was it was challenged in the ECJ and found to be contrary to Article 10, protecting freedom of expression, and specifically the electorate’s right to receive and communicate information. The French government did their own enquiry and decided that the media would just do their own polls anyway and use that to inform their commentary even if they didn't publish the results which would be even worse.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    Or you could sit complacently and wait to be blown up.. not many happy alternatives there.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    That is the point I have been trying to make all week

    It is all about the numbers

    To say that Muslims, on the whole are more violent and prone to extremism/terrorism than other religions is the height of ignorance. As a % I shouldn't think there is any significant difference.

    Because muslims are the significant minority in Europe, they are going to be the insurgents if there are to be any. What e are talking about here is not the muslim identity, but the identity of any group that are the largest outside of the dominant power

    There just aren't the amount of people who follow other religions in the Western World to be a noticeable threat if 0.05% of the following were sympathetic to terrorism, and 20% of that 0.05% became terrorists

    UK Hindus are 1.5% of the population. That is the biggest proportion of Hindus, BY FAR, of any European nation, and the biggest proportion of any religion other than Christianity or Islam in Europe (except maybe Jews in Gibraltar)

    Its like saying West Ham football fans are more violent than Dagenham supporters.. probably no difference, just more of them, and because there are more of them, they attract non West Ham fans who just want to get involved in trouble

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    RodCrosby said:

    French PM making some unhelpful comments.

    "France is now at war with radical Islam. We are all Charlie now....We are all Jews."

    And what of the Muslims, who constituted at least one of the victims and one of the heroes of this event?

    "We are all failed politicians sitting at 15% and desperate to revive our ratings"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: Miliband on back foot when asked by Marr if he said he would "weaponise" the NHS as election issue.

    @BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband not deny saying he wanted to "weaponise" the NHS as an issue #marrshow

    @DavidGauke: Obvious to anyone watching #marr that Miliband has talked about 'weaponising' the NHS.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Another why Dave can't win thread cont p94
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Comedy on BBC Ed spends the Mansion Tax in Newcastle.

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 12s12 seconds ago
    Miliband defends Jim Murphy on mansion tax, says London bank tax will also help jobless in Newcastle, it’s "part of our unity as a country'
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    Or you could sit complacently and wait to be blown up.. not many happy alternatives there.

    I'm going to go with 'none of the above'.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I have never been in a political party, so I really don't know the answer to this. Do the activists normally campaign in their own constituency, or do they go out and about in marginals? If the latter, one might think the Tories might have more money to spend on travel and accommodation expenses.

    When I was in a Leicester safe seat, the party would send us out canvassing in two nearby marginals. Nick gets a lot of help from Nottingham party members too, so it seems standard practice.

    Mind you some of the canvasers were rather Dave Spart and could have put off the middle class voters that New Labour wanted!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    David Jones ‏@DavidJo52951945 20s21 seconds ago
    Ed Miliband is wearing a purple tie on Andrew Marr-secret message that people should vote UKIP?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    Or you could sit complacently and wait to be blown up.. not many happy alternatives there.

    I'm going to go with 'none of the above'.
    I imagine that is what most of those 17 in Paris went with.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Radical Muslims rush into churches in Germany, Scream “Fucking Christians!” And “Christians Are Shit!” pic.twitter.com/ttb5OTmkL7

    — FátimaⓂ️ (@backatone000) January 9, 2015
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If events go on as they are, I think the voters will want some purple in the HoC.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Asked 5 times by #Marr whether he would rule out any Coalition deal with SNP, Ed Miliband ducks. Just says: "I'm not about deals".

    @paulwaugh: “I’m not about deals” Clearly EdM’s formulation. Marr rightly asks if ‘i’m not about it’ means won’t do one. Miliband says not focused on it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    The numbers should have been controlled.. but it's too late for that.

    So what do you suggest?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    Or you could sit complacently and wait to be blown up.. not many happy alternatives there.

    I don't think you need "complacently" in there - the rest of the time we're waiting to get hit by a bus or die of cancer, so there's nothing particularly unreasonable about waiting to be blown up. Obviously you want to reduce risks where you can do it at reasonable cost, but a lot of the things people would do in response to terrorism are useless, and many are downright counterproductive, or even exactly the response the people responsible were hoping to provoke. The right response here may well be "Nothing must be done".
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    I think the first step would be to elect governments which are rational and truthful about the causes and scale of the problem.

    MI5: "attack highly likely"
    Hogan-Howe: "attack not likely"
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Arson attack on German newspaper that re-published Charlie Hebdo cartoon. BBC
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Maybe Dave should debate Milli after all....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The funniest thing about the word "weaponise" was the lambasting Damian McBride gave it, long before it became apparent that it was Ed Miliband himself that had said it:

    http://damianpmcbride.tumblr.com/post/105263036589/salience-is-the-virtue-of-fools
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @anntreneman: "I am very clear," said Ed, over and over again. Always a sign of total fog.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Indigo said:

    Casually looking on the Indy website to see if there might be a ComRes poll out (there isn't) I found out that some old twat wants to regulate (ie restrict) the publication of opinion polls. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pollsters-would-be-curbed-by-peers-new-regulation-bill-9970427.html?origin=internalSearch

    Such a touching attachment to democracy, from someone who accepted an appointment to sit in the legislature for life.

    I think you have your wires crossed there. The proposal is clearly idiotic, but has nothing to do with democracy as it doesn't stop you from voting or restrict your voting choices.
    But as you point out, it restricts the amount of information I am allowed to have before I vote, the result is to put me at the mercy of what the politicians choose to claim is true.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Are many on here taking the 5-1 for a Conservative majority ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    Or you could sit complacently and wait to be blown up.. not many happy alternatives there.

    I'm going to go with 'none of the above'.
    I imagine that is what most of those 17 in Paris went with.
    So, assuming you don't favour complacency, are you going to choose internment or liquidation?

    I'm not a fan of either.
  • JackW said:



    Nevertheless on one issue PBers may be certain :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Do you go cycling with Jonathan Powell by any chance?

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/12295/blairs-chief-of-staff-on-the-shakespearean-tragedy-of-gordon-brown/

    And Powell's perspective was at least that of an informed insider.

    And if Milliband's such a liability why isn't Cameron ahead -- indeed, far ahead -- in the polls? Why?

    Oh, Milliband is just such a loser ... so why is Cameron bottling out of a TV debate with him? That should seal it, surely?
  • Another anti-Conservative thread is either prescient or a sign of desperation....... hohoho. However let us not shoot the messenger over a message with some truth..

    Yes Mike does tend to leap on anything he can possibly lay his hands on to show his bête noire, the Conservatives, performing less-than-perfectly. Closely followed I should say by UKIP.
    Then lots of pb Tories will make a ton of money off OGH when election bets are settled. Just rejoice at that news!
    I think that people notice criticism of their own party more than criticism of other people's parties. I believe that OGH is a LibDem sympathiser, yet we see threads containing bad news for them quite often. Also threads indicating that 'Ed is crap' are not unusual.
    It's a betting site, money is involved, for that reason alone I think that this site is more even handed than others.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    All parties do urge their members to help in marginals, and we benefit from the huge Nottingham party. There must conversely be seats where there's a big Tory constituency association nearby - Hastings, maybe? - and the distinction there may be worth keeping in mind as people speculate on constituencies.

    It's certainly true in our patch that the Tory ground game has been almost non-existent up to now, with their focus entirely on direct mail and phone canvassing. They are now canvassing once a week but it's still weak, which means that their information in a few months' time on voter intentions for people whose phone numbers they don't have will be very limited. That's an objective problem in GOTV on the day which cannot really be fixed in the short time remaining.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yorkcity said:

    Are many on here taking the 5-1 for a Conservative majority ?

    Should be 10/1
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    The numbers should have been controlled.. but it's too late for that.

    So what do you suggest?
    Not an expert in the field, but clearly multiculturalism doesn't work as a concept.

    So the answer is to find a way to break down the separate communities that have developed. Education is a key part of the story, as is language. I'd also restrict the ability to import new wives from the home country (I believe this is particularly an issue with rural Pakistanis). You also need the ability to deport people who have made clear that they are not willing to live by the norms of our society.

    British residence/citizenship is a privilege, not a right
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    There are 44 million Muslims in Europe.

    If only 1 in 100,000 was turned into a radical sleeper, that would be 440 sleepers.

    A chilling thought...

    So do you want to lock them all up?

    Or perhaps you might prefer to eliminate them entirely?
    I think the first step would be to elect governments which are rational and truthful about the causes and scale of the problem.

    MI5: "attack highly likely"
    Hogan-Howe: "attack not likely"
    Well given that neither MI5 or Hogan-Howe are elected, I'm not sure what your point is.

    Although I don't trust Hogan-Howe to speak the truth unless it suits him.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Can say that Labour's organisation worse than that of the Tories, but both unable to deliver leaflets or emails in the same scale as the Yellow Peril in my neck of the woods.
This discussion has been closed.