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  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    In the end, I think Clegg will defeat Labour pretty clearly (10%+) in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are wasting resources by campaigning hard in that seat.

    Surely 2015 is the best possible time for targeting LD seats? Their support may recover in the new parliament.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567

    There was an interesting comment on the Sky paper review to the effect that lots of people make up their minds pretty early and don't sway from that.

    I think those saying they'll vote Conservative or Lib Dem are unlikely to change, but those saying Labour or UKIP might be more likely to do so. I suspect the SNP will do as well as predicted by the polls. I don't think that tide will recede this side of the election.

    In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/10/07/in-2010-only-47-of-voters-had-decided-the-way-they-were-going-to-vote-before-the-election-campaign-began/
    Morris's view isn't supported by the polls, which repeatedly show current Tory, Labour and UKIP voters very sure how they'll vote (typically round 60% now) but current LibDems and Green very doubtful. Certainly my impression on the doorstep, though UKIP vote feels a bit softer now.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    No Populus yet...strange as I completed a VI poll yesterday (though it contained other questions so may have been for a private client).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Ed Miliband is evens with Ladbrokes to be Prime Minister at the 2015 Queen's Speech. If he's not, he's out unless it looks like another election is imminent - 90/10 looks right to me.

    So that's almost an arb and a middle if you can get on with both. Victor Chandler, however, do not want my business.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Ed Miliband is evens with Ladbrokes to be Prime Minister at the 2015 Queen's Speech. If he's not, he's out unless it looks like another election is imminent - 90/10 looks right to me.

    So that's almost an arb and a middle if you can get on with both. Victor Chandler, however, do not want my business.
    Same here.If I try and bid up the odds using VC I have heard them described as "decoration" or worse "for illustrative purposes only".

  • A Liberal Democrat Councillor has quit the party after suggesting an alleged rape victim wasn't attractive enough to be targeted.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/05/east-hampstead-council-philip-drury_n_6415656.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

    The party with the smallest % of female MPs?
    Why is there such a misogynistic streak in the Lib Dems?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited January 2015
    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Well, Ed is what gives a Jedi his power. He's an energy field created by all living things. He surrounds us and penetrates us; he binds the galaxy together.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Ed Miliband is evens with Ladbrokes to be Prime Minister at the 2015 Queen's Speech. If he's not, he's out unless it looks like another election is imminent - 90/10 looks right to me.

    So that's almost an arb and a middle if you can get on with both. Victor Chandler, however, do not want my business.
    Yes I was thinking just that re the middle/arb but my computer froze and couldn't post...

    I cant get on any of these bets we talk about really, only if I can get to a shop, but like to work it out...

    There is a Victor Shop in Mayfair that takes reasonable bets though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    A Liberal Democrat Councillor has quit the party after suggesting an alleged rape victim wasn't attractive enough to be targeted.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/05/east-hampstead-council-philip-drury_n_6415656.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

    The party with the smallest % of female MPs?
    Why is there such a misogynistic streak in the Lib Dems?
    In fairness, they are reputedly very "hands on" when it comes to selection....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited January 2015
    <

    AndyJS said:

    GB opinion polls... must... have... GB opinion polls...

    How many polls do you think we might get in total between now and polling day?
    I worked this out last month.

    I reckon we're going to have around 200 GB wide polls between now and election day.

    Then add in Scotland only and marginal polls
    Plus some Wales-only polls too, and what about Northern Ireland? Definitely going to be a polling fest for us lot to chew over.
    Sadly, no one gives a stuff about Northern Ireland, but there are some fascinating races, I'd love to see polling on, for a betting perspective.

    Can the DUP take back East Belfast and can Sinn Fein hold on to Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which they hold by just four votes.
    I like to give a stuff about NI, even though I've never been there! http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/map12.htm

    [Sunil puts on his best Gerry Adams voice:] "The Brits partitioned MY country too, you know!"

    There seems to be only a handful of NI polls on the Wikipedia list of Opinion polls for 2015.

    Fermanagh & South Tyrone should be an SF hold if the DUP and UUP field separate candidates, like they did in 2005. Or maybe SDLP could give SF a clear run (as SF gave the SDLP a clear run in Belfast South in 2010, enabling them to take advantage of a split Unionist vote).
  • I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    Ah, I did see your edit :)

    I'm really not sure at this stage, but I haven't ruled it out!
    Well I have you email address and your mobile phone number.

    I'll love bomb you every day until you decide to vote Tory.
    There are laws against harassment!!
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Well, Day 1 of the campaign and it's already pretty dirty.

    Jeez, do we really have another 4 months of this?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam indicate the sort of head of steam is building up across the party spectrum to remove Clegg as developed by Galloway in Bradford.The Tory voters think he is evil mendacity personified as well as the Labour voters.There is total toxicity from associating with these mendacious men of many faces and an anti-Clegg vote which is an anti LibDem vote with a bit of personal.The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    taffys said:

    Incidentally I didn't know America had banned exports of oil for many years until last week

    Yep.

    I was looking at all the cabs and business vans on my way into work in central London today.

    They are getting a 15% reduction in their main overhead, and rising.

    Re the US oil exports, it's largely irrelevent, as the US still consumes about 6m more barrels per day than it extracts (16m vs 10m).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    That polling confirms that Scrapheap's and mine's Dry but not obsessed with the gays and the EU Tory Party would win a landslide.

    so since self evidently the voters don't think we have one or Cameron would be romping home, where's it going to come from ?

    Personally I'd just settle for a vaguely competent one.
    Unfortunately the current Tory party does appear to be obsessed with the gays and Europe.

    Dave's greatest strategic blunder was to try and appease the UKIP fifth columnists.
    hmmm

    not quite sure that's true Mr Eagles.

    Mr Cameron's faux pas have more to do with ignoring the bread and butter issues. If you're a gay banker in London this is a great government, unfortunately there are enough of them to win an election.

    If Cameron had had his detox by keeping the 50p tax reduction til the next parlt and kicked the crap out of some of the banks he'd be in much better shape. He'd have detoxed on the side of ordinary people rather than his own social circle.
    So your criticism of Dave is he didn't go down the easy PR route, but did the right thing, in terms of boosting the economy and raising tax revenues, as cutting the 50p tax rate has increased tax revenues.
    actually not at all.

    The criticism is if he'd have held the "we're all in this together" line he'd be heading for a majority and the need to raise more taxes would in the medium term decline as a fically sensible government ( assuming he'd sacked Osborne ) would be less of an onus on the rest of us.
    I did suggest replacing Osborne with Ken Clarke.

    Tory Majority nailed on.
    Wasn't the rumour last time that Hague resigned to make way for Osborne to move to the Foreign Office but then some crisis or other emerged?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Do we know when the famous Ashcroft Scotland poll is going to appear?

    Towards the end of this month/start of next month.

    (Depending on response rates)
    Thanks. I think I'm going to keep my SNP Buy on SPIN open for now at least - it may well have further to go.
    I can't see anything that Labour have left in the locker to stop the SNP surge.
    I think the SNP surge is about to get a New Year boost as the Westminster negative campaigning kicks in. The majority of people joining the SNP are motivated, working, new to political activism, aged 25 to 55 and from a range of socio-economic backgrounds. Therefore, I think the media portrayal of the SNP surge as being driven by blind faith cyber-Nats and benefit junkies is way off the mark. Interestingly, the surge is being lead by women, who now make up 44% of the SNP membership, pre-surge it was 33%.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Authoritarian Ukip deny free speech and seek books banned.not burned yet.Libertarians my arse.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/johns4ec0c9667/ukip-supporters-are-trying-to-get-a-completely-bla-18gnz
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Asking for £40 on this, and accepted.

    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:



    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.

    I'm afraid that Natalie Bennett seems very safe for another 21 months or so. Oh, not ALL the leaders ;)
  • Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam indicate the sort of head of steam is building up across the party spectrum to remove Clegg as developed by Galloway in Bradford.The Tory voters think he is evil mendacity personified as well as the Labour voters.There is total toxicity from associating with these mendacious men of many faces and an anti-Clegg vote which is an anti LibDem vote with a bit of personal.The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Lolz.

    So much AstroTurf there we could play a football match.

    My sources who accurately forecast the Police Commisioner by election can't stop laughing at Clegg losing his deposit.
  • Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.

    I'm afraid that Natalie Bennett seems very safe for another 21 months or so. Oh, not ALL the leaders ;)
    Is Natalie English? :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.

    I'm afraid that Natalie Bennett seems very safe for another 21 months or so. Oh, not ALL the leaders ;)
    I'm not on Galloway either ;p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited January 2015

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    Ah, I did see your edit :)

    I'm really not sure at this stage, but I haven't ruled it out!
    Well I have you email address and your mobile phone number.

    I'll love bomb you every day until you decide to vote Tory.
    There are laws against harassment!!
    UKIP will ban Depeche Mode because they sound foreign and foreigners cause traffic delays.

    Vote Tory.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver · 4m4 minutes ago
    Delighted to announce that Eastern Regional Chairman @GeorgeKonUKIP will be contesting Basildon and Billericay for UKIP.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    edited January 2015
    Neil said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
    There must be a lot of money to be paid, betting against someone who thinks Clegg will lose his deposit.

    I think the outcome will be something like Lib Dem 40%, Lab 30%, Con 15%, others 15%.

  • Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
    There must be a lot of money to be paid, betting against someone who thinks Clegg will lose his deposit.

    Unfortunately none of the Clegg will lose mob bet. That's why he's 1/3 to hold his seat.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Authoritarian Ukip deny free speech and seek books banned.not burned yet.Libertarians my arse.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/johns4ec0c9667/ukip-supporters-are-trying-to-get-a-completely-bla-18gnz

    Well for starters it isn't UKIP asking for it to be banned is it? It is some people on amazon who aren't UKIP.. why would you bother lying?

    Secondly it is quite a good gag and people who buy it should laugh it off
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
    There must be a lot of money to be paid, betting against someone who thinks Clegg will lose his deposit.

    If I bet on the basis of what I wanted to happen I would be a very poor man indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam indicate the sort of head of steam is building up across the party spectrum to remove Clegg as developed by Galloway in Bradford.The Tory voters think he is evil mendacity personified as well as the Labour voters.There is total toxicity from associating with these mendacious men of many faces and an anti-Clegg vote which is an anti LibDem vote with a bit of personal.The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Lolz.

    So much AstroTurf there we could play a football match.

    My sources who accurately forecast the Police Commisioner by election can't stop laughing at Clegg losing his deposit.
    Sean_F said:

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    In the end, I think Clegg will defeat Labour pretty clearly (10%+) in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are wasting resources by campaigning hard in that seat.

    Astroturfing on both sides both for and against Clegg. He isn't 10% ahead, and there is zero chance of him losing his deposit.

    3% ahead on the constituency specific question.

    LISTEN TO THE GOOD LORD YOU LOT.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver · 4m4 minutes ago
    Delighted to announce that Eastern Regional Chairman @GeorgeKonUKIP will be contesting Basildon and Billericay for UKIP.

    Not John Baron, then?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I see that LA isn't polling tonight but is Yougov back to normal ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam indicate the sort of head of steam is building up across the party spectrum to remove Clegg as developed by Galloway in Bradford.The Tory voters think he is evil mendacity personified as well as the Labour voters.There is total toxicity from associating with these mendacious men of many faces and an anti-Clegg vote which is an anti LibDem vote with a bit of personal.The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Nah - Cons need Clegg to ensure the nailed on scenario of 5 more years of Con-Lib coalition.
  • TGOHF said:

    I see that LA isn't polling tonight but is Yougov back to normal ?

    Well I took part in a YouGov last night.

    So I'd expect it tonight
  • Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver · 4m4 minutes ago
    Delighted to announce that Eastern Regional Chairman @GeorgeKonUKIP will be contesting Basildon and Billericay for UKIP.

    Not John Baron, then?

    I was hoping for Roger Lord
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Balls says Osborne's dossier is "based on false assumptions". That's why it's clever - Labour must now say what they won't do, line by line.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Well, Day 1 of the campaign and it's already pretty dirty.

    Jeez, do we really have another 4 months of this?

    Look on the bright side - at least its not as long as SIndyRef......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Pulpstar said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam indicate the sort of head of steam is building up across the party spectrum to remove Clegg as developed by Galloway in Bradford.The Tory voters think he is evil mendacity personified as well as the Labour voters.There is total toxicity from associating with these mendacious men of many faces and an anti-Clegg vote which is an anti LibDem vote with a bit of personal.The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Lolz.

    So much AstroTurf there we could play a football match.

    My sources who accurately forecast the Police Commisioner by election can't stop laughing at Clegg losing his deposit.
    Sean_F said:

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    In the end, I think Clegg will defeat Labour pretty clearly (10%+) in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are wasting resources by campaigning hard in that seat.

    Astroturfing on both sides both for and against Clegg. He isn't 10% ahead, and there is zero chance of him losing his deposit.

    3% ahead on the constituency specific question.

    LISTEN TO THE GOOD LORD YOU LOT.
    I don't think the Conservatives will poll as well as 19%, or UKIP as well as 11% in this seat. Clegg will pick up centre-right tactical voters who wish to keep out Labour.



  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver · 4m4 minutes ago
    Delighted to announce that Eastern Regional Chairman @GeorgeKonUKIP will be contesting Basildon and Billericay for UKIP.

    Not John Baron, then?

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver · 4m4 minutes ago
    Delighted to announce that Eastern Regional Chairman @GeorgeKonUKIP will be contesting Basildon and Billericay for UKIP.

    Not John Baron, then?

    Would've been great if it was this John Bar(r)on.. one of my fav characters

    "I didn't get where I am today by being the PPC for Bas & Bill against another man called John Baron"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Barron_(actor)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.

    I'm afraid that Natalie Bennett seems very safe for another 21 months or so. Oh, not ALL the leaders ;)
    What *another* leading Green figure that you don't rate? (I was keener on the London Mayoral candidate than you were.) You're so hard to please...

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    I see that LA isn't polling tonight but is Yougov back to normal ?

    Well I took part in a YouGov last night.

    Big Kipper surge then .....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Well, Day 1 of the campaign and it's already pretty dirty.

    Jeez, do we really have another 4 months of this?

    Look on the bright side - at least its not as long as SIndyRef......
    Will there be "secret Canadians" ?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Scotsman ‏@TheScotsman 1m1 minute ago
    Holyrood will be given powers to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote before May's election, says Alistair Carmichael http://bit.ly/1IfXJnL
  • Box set bonanza over Xmas. The Wire was brilliant from fast to last - stunning acting, superb plot-lines, brilliant character development and just all-round compelling. On the other hand, Downton Abbey very, very Meh. I had expected a masterpiece based on the write-ups. But what I got was a very predictable, straight down the line period drama. Nothing on Remains of the Day or Gosford Park. Broadchurch is next.
  • I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    Ah, I did see your edit :)

    I'm really not sure at this stage, but I haven't ruled it out!
    Well I have you email address and your mobile phone number.

    I'll love bomb you every day until you decide to vote Tory.
    There are laws against harassment!!
    UKIP will ban Depeche Mode because they sound foreign and foreigners cause traffic delays.

    Vote Tory.
    But Depeche Mode are from Basildon!
  • I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Asking for £40 on this, and accepted.

    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.
    Looks like £40 got that market pulled!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Victor Chandler are betting on "Will Ed Miliband step down as Labour Leader in 2015?"

    6/4 Yes

    I think this could be a marginal bet as

    (a) He could lose in May and would surely step down (90/10?)
    (b) He could be PM of an unstable govt which might lead to another election in October

    any views?

    Asking for £40 on this, and accepted.

    Now on ALL the (English) party leaders to step down in 2015.
    Looks like £40 got that market pulled!
    Arf.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I was keener on the London Mayoral candidate than you were.

    I put that down to you not being as well acquainted with her.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Box set bonanza over Xmas. The Wire was brilliant from fast to last - stunning acting, superb plot-lines, brilliant character development and just all-round compelling. On the other hand, Downton Abbey very, very Meh. I had expected a masterpiece based on the write-ups. But what I got was a very predictable, straight down the line period drama. Nothing on Remains of the Day or Gosford Park. Broadchurch is next.

    Plato, you have logged in as Southam Observer by mistake
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Box set bonanza over Xmas. The Wire was brilliant from fast to last - stunning acting, superb plot-lines, brilliant character development and just all-round compelling. On the other hand, Downton Abbey very, very Meh. I had expected a masterpiece based on the write-ups. But what I got was a very predictable, straight down the line period drama. Nothing on Remains of the Day or Gosford Park. Broadchurch is next.

    Haven't seen the Wire but its on the list. Whats that with OE's eh? Comment on Downton fair - its 'brain into neutral, enjoy the quips & costumes' territory...if you haven't tried them there are some superb Scandi dramas from Borgen (politics) to 'The Bridge' (Crime)
  • I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Neil said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
    No! No! No!

    Its all about 'GOTV' and 'You don't understand Sheffield Hallam' and 'We've heard it all before'........
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Box set bonanza over Xmas. The Wire was brilliant from fast to last - stunning acting, superb plot-lines, brilliant character development and just all-round compelling. On the other hand, Downton Abbey very, very Meh. I had expected a masterpiece based on the write-ups. But what I got was a very predictable, straight down the line period drama. Nothing on Remains of the Day or Gosford Park. Broadchurch is next.

    I greatly enjoyed Breaking Bad.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Well I've backed a fair amount of pro-Mili bets recently so nice of VC to offer a nice value one against him.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
    The Greens wouldnt have him. (I have it on good authority that he once put feelers out in that direction, I'm not kidding.)

  • Neil said:

    I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
    The Greens wouldnt have him. (I have it on good authority that he once put feelers out in that direction, I'm not kidding.)

    Would you take Brian Coleman?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
    Its all about 'GOTV'
    Let's look at GOTV potential in Sheffield Hallam.

    (From LA's November poll)

    Recently contacted by the LDs - 49%
    Recently contacted by Lab - 15%

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam indicate the sort of head of steam is building up across the party spectrum to remove Clegg as developed by Galloway in Bradford.The Tory voters think he is evil mendacity personified as well as the Labour voters.There is total toxicity from associating with these mendacious men of many faces and an anti-Clegg vote which is an anti LibDem vote with a bit of personal.The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Lolz.

    So much AstroTurf there we could play a football match.

    My sources who accurately forecast the Police Commisioner by election can't stop laughing at Clegg losing his deposit.
    Sean_F said:

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    In the end, I think Clegg will defeat Labour pretty clearly (10%+) in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are wasting resources by campaigning hard in that seat.

    Astroturfing on both sides both for and against Clegg. He isn't 10% ahead, and there is zero chance of him losing his deposit.

    3% ahead on the constituency specific question.

    LISTEN TO THE GOOD LORD YOU LOT.
    I don't think the Conservatives will poll as well as 19%, or UKIP as well as 11% in this seat. Clegg will pick up centre-right tactical voters who wish to keep out Labour.



    No Conservative candidate selected for the seat yet interestingly.

    Hmm I think the Con + UKIP vote will be around 27% - I don't think "the right" really does tactical, or if they do it is kind of priced in from last time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency), the Con 8% and UKIP 4% here maybe next time.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    You're gonna vote for this guy??

    :)
    I'll vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam if you vote Tory in Ilford South.

    Deal?
    No! I'm based in Ilford North!! Ilford South has been a Labour stronghold for decades!

    You did notice that I changed the colour of my avatar to "normal" a number of weeks ago?
    I changed it to Ilford North.

    I did. So you're voting Tory?

    Huzzah.
    Ah, I did see your edit :)

    I'm really not sure at this stage, but I haven't ruled it out!
    Well I have you email address and your mobile phone number.

    I'll love bomb you every day until you decide to vote Tory.
    There are laws against harassment!!
    UKIP will ban Depeche Mode because they sound foreign and foreigners cause traffic delays.

    Vote Tory.
    But Depeche Mode are from Basildon!
    Bas Vegas
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
    The Greens wouldnt have him. (I have it on good authority that he once put feelers out in that direction, I'm not kidding.)

    Would you take Brian Coleman?
    I like the think the party is more discerning than your average Arsenal centre forward.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    Reports from Clegg's Sheffield Hallam.... The aim should be to make him lose his deposit.

    Any chance that the reports you are hearing are somewhat, I dunno, biased?
    Its all about 'GOTV'
    Let's look at GOTV potential in Sheffield Hallam.

    (From LA's November poll)

    Recently contacted by the LDs - 49%
    Recently contacted by Lab - 15%

    I'm sure he'll show you his Canvassing results if you ask nicely - at least 143% sure to vote Labour......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
    The Greens wouldnt have him. (I have it on good authority that he once put feelers out in that direction, I'm not kidding.)

    Would you take Brian Coleman?
    I like the think the party is more discerning than your average Arsenal centre forward.
    Could an Arsenal centre-forward honestly find Coleman attractive?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Yes, you dont like the Lib Dems. We get it. Can we move on now?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
    The Greens wouldnt have him. (I have it on good authority that he once put feelers out in that direction, I'm not kidding.)

    Would you take Brian Coleman?
    I like the think the party is more discerning than your average Arsenal centre forward.
    Could an Arsenal centre-forward honestly find Coleman attractive?

    How did you miss one of the greatest Brian Coleman stories ever?!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2282239/Brian-Coleman-mayor-Barnet-claims-I-slept-Arsenal-striker.html

    You may just want to read the URL as the details of the story could make you physically ill.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Scott_P said:

    @michaelsavage: Labour audience shout "pilluck" and "get back to London" at @BBCNormanS for saying there has been no NHS winter crisis. Ed asks for respect.

    And this is the party which, if elected, will implement Leveson.

    Oh dear.....

  • Neil said:

    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I was hoping for Roger Lord

    Yes, it's all getting rather boring. No Roger Lord, no Neil Hamilton, and there are even dark rumours of no Winston MacKenzie.
    You can understand why no Winston Mackenzie he'll probably have defected to the DUP or The Greens by May given his track record.
    The Greens wouldnt have him. (I have it on good authority that he once put feelers out in that direction, I'm not kidding.)

    Would you take Brian Coleman?
    I like the think the party is more discerning than your average Arsenal centre forward.
    Could an Arsenal centre-forward honestly find Coleman attractive?

    How did you miss one of the greatest Brian Coleman stories ever?!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2282239/Brian-Coleman-mayor-Barnet-claims-I-slept-Arsenal-striker.html

    You may just want to read the URL as the details of the story could make you physically ill.
    Sadly I have imagined every Arsenal striker of the last 25 years bumping uglies with Brian Coleman.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,190

    Box set bonanza over Xmas. The Wire was brilliant from fast to last - stunning acting, superb plot-lines, brilliant character development and just all-round compelling. On the other hand, Downton Abbey very, very Meh. I had expected a masterpiece based on the write-ups. But what I got was a very predictable, straight down the line period drama. Nothing on Remains of the Day or Gosford Park. Broadchurch is next.

    Haven't seen the Wire but its on the list. Whats that with OE's eh? Comment on Downton fair - its 'brain into neutral, enjoy the quips & costumes' territory...if you haven't tried them there are some superb Scandi dramas from Borgen (politics) to 'The Bridge' (Crime)
    We finished watching Borgen on Christmas Eve. Excellent series. Plot spoiler alert...




    ...But I was a bit miffed that she turned into Nick Clegg in the final episode!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited January 2015
    One for Antifrank.

    Neil Adams has quit as Norwich boss.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Scotsman ‏@TheScotsman 1m1 minute ago
    Holyrood will be given powers to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote before May's election, says Alistair Carmichael http://bit.ly/1IfXJnL

    Just to be clear this is not for voting in the 2015 GE. It is for the 2016 Holyrood.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AudreyAnne is Janan Ganesh and I claim my £5!

    @JananGanesh 3m3 minutes ago
    The country is nowhere near focused on this election yet. Another month at least.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Ed asks for respect

    (surely, Respek...??? Editor).
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    taffys said:

    Ed asks for respect

    (surely, Respek...??? Editor).

    Respect - for what?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2015
    'A Cost Analysis of Labour Party Policy':

    http://tinyurl.com/pvhmb4o

    You know, the one that is a complete disgrace, unless its the one Labour did of the Tories plans in 2010.......
  • New Thread
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    LBC ‏@LBC 7m7 minutes ago
    Speaking to @ShelaghFogarty Sir Ming Campbell predicts that the upcoming election "is going to be a dirty campaign."


    Well we know it will by TSE shouting "Vote Tory!" on each post, and you can't get dirtier than that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited January 2015
    "Alex Massie reckons its part of a plan to keep Ed off the front pages......."

    Well a big mistake then. I thought he was extremely good. I'm beginning to think those Tories who see him as a no hoper are going to end up with omelette on their face.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    "Teresa May is a porn star"

    Doesn't surprise me. I've never rated her as a home secretary
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    How anyone in public life can even think about a comment like that is pathetic. I agree its difficult to throw him off the council but its hard to see him being re-elected.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    I've just run out of mind bleach

    @faisalislam: Clegg says Balls claiming centre ground fiscal credibility a bit like getting "a late night voicemail from an ex saying they have changed"

    On this, I agree with Nick!

    Mind you such voicemails sometimes get a sympathy shag...
    Sounds a good idea, how many have you sent?

    :-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    How desperate can Labour get , we will have 1000 more than what the SNP promise.
    What pathetic cretins.

    https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/552067774995234816
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:
    I am still confused.

    The bit I am struggling to understand is that Mr Rich, inherits millions and spends his whole life in a jacuzzi, when he retires he has less money, but in essence continues to live off his wealth, I can't see how someone else is paying for his life.

    Mr Busy, works his whole life diligently, he buys physical gold with his spare money and put it in a box, when he retires he starts taking the gold out the box and selling it to pay for his lifestyle. From the point of retirement on I can't see how his life is any different to Mr Rich

    Mr Average does pretty much as Mr Busy, but he invests his spare money in Index Linked savings instruments, which he starts to sell off on retirement. Now it start to get a bit hazy for me, is this in any real way different to the circumstances of Mr Rich or Mr Busy ?

    Perhaps you can recommend something relevant to read here for the amateur investor.
    People don't have their money in gold or cash. They have it by and large in shares, gilts and real property, and earn dividends from profits made by workers or get paid interest out of tax paid by workers or rent out of wages paid to workers.
    Now you are confused. Companies exist thanks to investors who get interest on their investment. That investment has created the jobs. Investors forego dividends to ensure money is invested for the future in companies to secure jobs and create more.
    eg
    ''Audi will spend 24 billion euros ($29 billion) to develop technology and expand production, boosting its five-year investment plan by 2 billion euros''
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-27/audi-to-invest-29-billion-through-2019-to-surpass-bmw.html
    GM have invested about 125 million at Elesmere Port to secure jobs and add a further 700 plus hundreds more with component makers.

    Pensions generally are paid for from contributions paid in during working life. New rules dictate pensions will be paid for by worker and company contributions. Old Age Pension is paid for from the NI contributions paid in by workers and companies. Its bogus to say retirement is paid by people in work. Pensions are paid by sacrifices during work and by those unfortunates who die early.


    FWIW that GM investment will boost the UK content and create a big investment in UK component makers. It involves a new pay deal and round the clock working 51 weeks a year. Somewhere in mainland Europe a GM factory will be shut. Its called inward investment. Merseyside is an automotive success story. I for one want to keep that work here and not exported to places like Romania.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Its remarkably skilful of Labour to make even malcolmg sound sensible. Rarely have I seen a more silly pledge. In any event a devolved Scotland receives money and the devolved Scottish government spends it as it deems fit. The Scottish NHS is not part of a national UK general election - MPs have no say in how its run.
This discussion has been closed.