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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 1 in 6 are thought to have voted tactically and t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 1 in 6 are thought to have voted tactically and the signs are that it could be even more prevalent at GE15
Suddenly, it seems, the Westminster village has woken up to the idea that in the new complex and much more multi-partied political environment tactical voting looks set to play a much bigger role.
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At the moment a lot of regulations which annoy the public arrive from Brussels, but the government takes the blame for it, Commission dictats are treated almost as if they are an issue for "collective responsibility", they should make a practise of pointing the finger firmly at the source... "we think its a damn stupid idea as well, but it was imposed by the EU and comes as one of the benefits of membership"
It goes back to the argument that some polls like this can end up becoming self fulfilling. I'm surprised there aren't any rules in place to prevent it from happening, the accuracy of these marginal polls can't be guaranteed and in the end they could paint a very misleading picture.
They'll be in the vanguard of the IN campaign when/if we get a referendum.
BBC bias is the result of it being run by middle class North Londoners, not because it receives a few basis points of funding from the EU.
anything else you need to get off your chest?
BBC News viewership tops out at about 6m people. Not only that, but they are noticably older and therefore probably more conservative than the population as a whole. IIRC, the median age for BBC One News at Six was 58 years old. So, if the BBC is notably pro-EU, it's not doing a great job of convincing its audience.
Francis Fratelli: Tell us everything! Everything!
[Chunk thinks incorrectly that they demand him to confess all the bad things he has committed in his life]
Chunk: Everything. OK! I'll talk! In third grade, I cheated on my history exam. In fourth grade, I stole my uncle Max's toupee and I glued it on my face when I was Moses in my Hebrew School play. In fifth grade, I knocked my sister Edie down the stairs and I blamed it on the dog... when my mom sent me to the summer camp for fat kids and then they served lunch I got nuts and I pigged out and they kicked me out... but the worst thing I ever done - I mixed a pot of fake puke at home and then I went to this movie theater, hid the puke in my jacket, climbed up to the balcony and then, t-t-then, I made a noise like this: hua-hua-hua-huaaaaaaa - and then I dumped it over the side, all over the people in the audience. And then, this was horrible, all the people started getting sick and throwing up all over each other. I never felt so bad in my entire life.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/11/08/man-does-mdma-and-cocaine-steals-ambulance-then-masturbates-in-police-custody-4939932/
They certainly have the biggest market share of UK media coverage which is a pertinent point considering that they will not be impartial. I agree that rcs1k is mostly right saying that their bias comes from recruiting almost exclusively from the pages of the Guardian (and from the Independent if it still exists). That bias will be a mountain to overcome for the OUT campaign.
All 4 of their normal links, including the lead, are on the Election.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/07/ukip-bbc-gobby-communications-director-paul-lambert-nigel-farage
The Tories, too, seem able to find any number of ex-BBC employees to employ.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/17/bbc-leftwing-bias-non-existent-myth
He's right. But I would say that, wouldn't I?
You can understand why they do this but it's an incredibly blunt instrument to use for political coverage and it ain't the way news works.
On the positive side, the BBC is substantially less evil than NHK.
His success in 2010, when he gained nearly 100 seats, was, at least in England, to dismantle some of the anti tory alliance built by Blair. This is a work in progress. The polling still shows that there is a greater dislike of the tories than there is of Labour. Given what Labour have done to the country I find this bewildering but them's the facts.
UKIP will undoubtedly help in this a great deal. I expect Tory phone banks to be humming with calls to Lib Dem and Labour supporters in appropriate seats asking them to stop UKIP by voting Tory. And I think it will work to some degree as these charts show.
Euro crashes to nine-year low on 'Grexit' fears
Report that Germany is prepared to let Greece exit the single currency has spooked markets
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11324916/Euro-crashes-to-nine-year-low-on-Grexit-fears.html
1997 30.7%
2001 31.7%
2005 32.4%
2010 36.1%
Now, of course, this time they have moved from opposition to government, but there is a solid trend there.
You cannot believe a word that comes out of the LibDems mouths.
All the Lib Dem´s fault of course!
This is very different from the more usual chart suggesting that this has been the worst recovery since the beginning of time etc. Of course the 2 are not incompatible but it is slightly startling to realise that despite a savage recession, a very difficult recovery and having the worst borrowing figures (public and private combined) in the developed world the UK has still done better than any other country in the EU since.
No wonder our contributions to the EU have increased.
I didn’t like the AV agreement, but it was probably the best that could be got from a party who’s leaders, amazingly, don’t understand the concept of an each-way bet.
This is the way that all the other Euro members tell the Greek electorate that, Syriza's promise that Greece can default on its obligations - to the IMF, the ECB and the EU - and stay in the EZ. Germany was chosen as the mouthpiece, because the Prime Minister of Belgium saying something doesn't carry much weight.
What I suspect you're thinking of is secondary legislation ("regulations" based on primary agreed directives). But they cannot go beyond what the directive which Britain signed up to has specified. If you're a minister and feel strongly that (say) the energy use of vacuum cleaners shouldn't be limited, don't sodding agree to a directive authorising the Commission to set a limit.
There are two ways of looking at this. Either the decisions are right, in which case the ministers are pathetic for not putting the reasons for them. Or they're wrong, in which case they're pathetic for agreeing to them. But either way it's a probloem about ministers, not about Europe. And, lest you think I'm making a partisan point, it's not only under this Government.
Small choice in rotten apples, David. I can´t see it working at all. But time will tell.
A Tory is asked a question that is particularly damaging to the Tories and they are constantly interrupted disallowing a measured response.
A labour politician is asked a question that is particularly damaging to the Tories and is allowed to rant on without intervention however ludicrous the claims or how their own record is ignored or not even mentioned.
It really is time now to end the TV tax. If they think they are loved then fine stand up like the rest of them and be counted. I think they will be unpleasantly surprised if they went on their own.
'Opinium have the first poll of 2015 out tonight, conducted for the Observer. Topline figures are CON 32%(+3), LAB 33%(-3), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 4%(-1). The poll has a sharp drop in Labour’s lead, down six points since a fortnight ago, but the previous poll was that rather incongruous seven point Labour lead, so part of the change will just be a correction after an unusual poll.
Note that fieldwork for the poll was the 30th Dec to 2nd Jan, so included New Years Eve and New Years Day. There isn’t actually any real evidence that doing fieldwork on bank holidays when many people are out doing stuff produces odd results… but I’m a bit wary of it. There are examples of polls done on bank holidays producing very odd results, but there are also examples of polls done on perfectly normal days producing odd results and polls done on banks holidays producing normal looking ones.'
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk
Losing a handful of seats to a sympathetic party if it also gains seats from Labour as well as takes sufficient votes to enable us to pick up seats we wouldn't have otherwise is overall a good thing.
UKIP as an alternative voice is a very welcome development and many of the Conservatives I know agree and will look to vote tactically.
Their review of The Independent, is immediately followed by a review of its stable mate, The i, which rather gives its common political slant two bites of the cherry.
A limiting factor is the curious mixture of low esteem with an absence of real dislike with which many people view the parties and leaders. Very few people really hate Cameron or Miliband in the way that lots of people hated Blair and Thatcher. Both are pleasant people at a personal level so you don't get the sort of "he threw a phone at me" stuff which you got with Brown. Neither appears to most people to be a fanatic or a loony, for all the attempts to portray them as such. So the number of people desperately keen to stop one or the other is smaller than in the past.
The main exception is the Red Liberals, a highly-motivated group who essentially felt betrayed when they thought they'd voted for a left-wing alternative to Labour, and discovered they'd elected a junior sidekick to the Tories. Even they aren't motivated by hating Cameron or Clegg - they simply want a change of government, and they've been consistent in that since 2010. Many other voters are frankly not that fussed: they generally have IMO decided how to vote, but outside the core party voters (who aren't tactical candidates anyway) they won't feel despair if the other lot wins.
The media landscape is thankfully fracturing and the BBC needs to change with the times, slim it down and make the TV licence voluntary.
Of course where state funding should be introduced is for political parties, kill the special interest groups who buy and pervert our policies.
Much better to blame the 0.5% that is Greece.
In reality I suspect ministers are presented with huge documents full of proposed powers, and either dont have time, or can't be bothered to read it, so it gets nodded through, and then they complain when people use the powers the regulations granted.
I would not be surprised in the Commission managed to find various excuses for the minister's staff not to be able to view the detail of the regulation until the last moment, to prevent "inconvenient" scrutiny, such has been to modus operandi of civil servants for generations.
And the probability is that Germany is more concerned with sending its own message to Lithuania than with selflessly ensuring that Lithuania's views reach a wider public.
As Jeff Randall put it
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6764779.stm Or the Head of BBC drama commisioning
http://www.theguardian.com/media/organgrinder/2009/jul/16/ben-stephenson-tony-garner
As stated in the piece above, it's tricky to call tactical voting especially when we have a new kid on the block in terms of a realistic chance of winning seats.
Anti-Establishment tactical voting will lead to the UKIPalypse, there could well be anti-Conservative voting in certain parts of England, and we might see some anti-Labour and some anti-SNP voting in Scotland. However, there could also be a problem for UKIP here and there.
I suppose that's a long-winded way of saying it could lead to some very odd results.
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
Just look at the way they smeared poor Lord McAlpine just because he was a former close confidant of Lady Thatcher.
Given the calamity of the NHS in Wales under Labour governance with just about all targets missed and the entire organisation in utter chaos plus the Stafford incidents amongst many.
How can the Labour Party put up posters stating that the NHS is only safe in their hands and the NHS cannot withstand another 5 years of coalition yet while doing so still manage to keep a straight face?
While we are at it why does the BbC when on the very rare occasion they bother to report on Wales NHS never make clear that it's not the Coalitions jurisdiction yet are more than happy to do so regarding any failures however tiny in England and wheel up Andy Burnham for the only comment?
We can of course pursue our own path in the world as a much smaller country like Switzerland has.
Labour seem confident that they can topple Clegg.
They had Tom Watson and a few other MPs here on Friday canvassing with Oliver Coppard, the Lab candidate.
I suspect this campaign is going to get pretty dirty.
Labour seem to view the Lib Dems as lower than collaborationist Vichys.
Nick Clegg = Marshal Pétain
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
Although I have some sympathy with your views SO I find the group think at the BBC which concludes if they are being criticised by both sides they must be getting it broadly right particularly irritating. Maybe they should reflect on the possibility that too many of their staff are just rubbish, poorly informed and badly briefed.
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
Except all the people I quote there, and later, were BBC employees, not external people complaining.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/30/osborne-adviser-bbc-trust-prettejohn_n_5633056.html
Maybe this person advised him on it:
http://powerbase.info/index.php/Thea_Rogers
The interesting question is whether tactical voters do so to stop a particular party candidate in a particular seat or to stop Cameron/Miliband from being PM. I watched the Nigel Farage interview yesterday. He seemed far more circumspect in his views and opinions than hitherto.
The one thing which is clearly going to happen in the next 4 months is that a great deal of pressure will be placed on Michael Ashcroft to get his constituency polls right, given that now SKY TV seems to have joined the band of political media who are basing their entire programme on his marginal polls.
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
I always have a big laugh when on the very very very rare occasion when the evidence is absolutely staring them in the face the BBC finally are forced to make a guarded criticism of Labour. The following occurs
It is reported on one perhaps two bulletins and disappears after a day never to be mentioned again.
As a result The Labour Party cry into their hankies about BBC bias against them *repeat to fade*
TSE me too and I'm not sure I agree. Cameron isn't a figure of hate for instance. UKIP are another story but that's also to do with the young Metropolitans who mostly loathe Farage and all he stands for.
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
I always have a big laugh when on the very very very rare occasion when the evidence is absolutely staring them in the face the BBC finally are forced to make a guarded criticism of Labour. The following occurs
It is reported on one perhaps two bulletins and disappears after a day never to be mentioned again.
As a result The Labour Party cry into their hankies about BBC bias against them *repeat to fade*
I agree. All sides believe that the BBC is biased against them. It goes with the territory. Of course, we hear more from right wingers about this because the right wing dominates the print media in which most of these stories are run.
2. Who recently said this?
"We need to shake out Christmas, New Year, travelling and get through the 5 week no-pay month and then, mid February, things will get serious.
I'm looking for fieldwork during the first week of February for signs for the General Election. Not now."
and
"My point was that 99.9% of people were not considering the General Election over the Christmas-New Year period, and polls as indicators are likely to be very misleading until we get through January which is likely to be a tight month for most, and a miserable enough one for many."
and
"Indigo's comment that I'm only interested if the polls are favourable for us blues is mendacious. I will be moving to the edge of my seat come February. And I'm prepared to revise my predictions about the GE result based on next month. My point is very simple but, I feel, true: this isn't the time to be testing the temperature for the election. That's all."?
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
I always have a big laugh when on the very very very rare occasion when the evidence is absolutely staring them in the face the BBC finally are forced to make a guarded criticism of Labour. The following occurs
It is reported on one perhaps two bulletins and disappears after a day never to be mentioned again.
As a result The Labour Party cry into their hankies about BBC bias against them *repeat to fade*
They have mauled Miliband during 2014. The coverage was, if anything, incredibly biased against him, although I guess it was deserved (can you have such a thing as deserving bias?!). HIGNY almost weekly savaged and lampooned him, closely followed by Andrew Neil and even the news channels.
Well, indeed. left wing paper complains about right wing BBC bias. Right wing papers complain about left wing BBC bias.
In the same way, supporters of Scottish independence complain about pro-Union BBC bias:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/02/bbc-scottish-independence-accused-pro-union-bias-good-morning-scotland-gary-Robertson
Supporters of Union complain of pro-SNP bias:
http://biasedbbc.proboards.com/thread/2443/complaints-over-bbc-rent-debate
And repeat to fade ...
Except all the people I quote there, and later, were BBC employees, not external people complaining.
I think Marr is right. Sir Antony Jay is a Tory and Peter Sissons, well he would say that wouldn't he, what with a serialised memoir in the Daily Mail and all that.
That's an issue in British politics too. Everyone likes Chris Mullin, with his famous book "A View From the Foothills". At a personal level I like him myself. But I'm still irritated that he openly admits to not being arsed to read the briefings about legislation that he was presenting in Committee. Now I remember sitting on one of those very same Committees. I remember asking him detailed questions, and getting blah replies. I read the legislation; he was paid extra to do it and couldn't be bothered (and later he grumbles that he was fired without warning when he was actually enjoying the job). That's how things get slipped through, like the bump in election spending limits against Electoral Commission advice which no Labour MP on the committee seems to have noticed.
If you do read the nitty-gritty you're regarded as a nerd, and you probably are. But you don't, you're not doing the bloody job. It is NOT a problem of Europe.
TSE me too and I'm not sure I agree. Cameron isn't a figure of hate for instance. UKIP are another story but that's also to do with the young Metropolitans who mostly loathe Farage and all he stands for.
I am young metropolitan and I don't find that, amongst my English peers anyway.
Regarding the BBC's general outlook, Jane Garvey rather spilled the beans when she said of Blair's election "I do remember… the corridors of Broadcasting House were strewn with empty champagne bottles. I’ll always remember that” Just about every other joke on HIGNY is at the expense of UKIP.
The conviction voter (in particular UKIP and Green) who doesn't care whether their candidate stands any chance also seems to be on the rise.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/29/bbc-postpones-prince-charles-spin-doctor-documentary
TSE me too and I'm not sure I agree. Cameron isn't a figure of hate for instance. UKIP are another story but that's also to do with the young Metropolitans who mostly loathe Farage and all he stands for.
(It says block quotte above this!)
Wasn’t there a (serious) threat of litigation in the Gilligan case?
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/11/perhaps-progressive-london-isnt-quite-as-capital-as-it-cracked-up-to-be.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/the-snp-conundrum-glasgow-experiment.html
I've looked beyond Glasgow now in a few areas, and I'm pondering whether to do a Scotland-wide version that tries to cater for the different circumstances of the Lib Dems and the Conservatives where they are serious contenders.
Maybe they're slightly overstretching themselves by thinking they can win there...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iE8RU4rVmDmtRhjo1Ws3Om3IjrmgUVSbcW-tO7cY-RE/edit?pli=1#gid=0
It is often stated that we need a House of Lords as a refining and revising chamber. I think we need a House of Commons that passed only well drafted and coherent legislation in the first place!
The Commons is stuffed with lawyers and University graduates capable of getting to grips with complex documents, and have staff to assist and research. Why are they not doing their jobs properly? Laziness or too much time spent on cloak and dagger infighting rather than their real jobs?
The underlying problem for the Conservatives and the NHS goes all the way back to 1948. They give the impression to many people that they don't really like the system, and if they were starting from here they'd *do something else* (many posters here give exactly that impression too), though they recognise that people like it so they need to go along with it. It's a bit like many Labour people about the monarchy - lots of us think the idea of hereditary heads of State is a bit strange but we know people like it so, well, OK.
When times are good and money is flowing freely, it doesn't really matter if the Government isn't whole-hearted about the NHS. But when it isn't, people feel that they can't really trust the Government to stick with it. IMO the system did erode under Thatcher and Major into an A&E plus backup system for those who couldn't afford private care, and it's drifting back in that direction again. Will the system disappear altogether by 2020 if the Tories win? No, but it'll be increasingly hollowed out.
In England, the Tories have upped spending.
In Wales, Labour have cut spending.
In Scotland, the SNP have "privatised".
First off, we have a massive deficit. Interest on the debt is enormous. We need to rein this in. Health spending is vast, so we either include that in cuts (Labour's 2010 approach), keep it flat (the Coalition's choice) or increase it. But the latter two, especially the last, mean even harsher cuts elsewhere. Or, debt can balloon and we can pay even more in interest.
Secondly, even if the economic picture were rosy, we have a serious demographic challenge with which to grapple. Life expectancy is getting longer but instead of healthiness increasing at the same pace we're seeing Alzheimer's and the like rise rapidly. It costs a fortune, and the ageing population means we have a proportionally decreasing number of in-work taxpayers funding healthcare for people enjoying (or not) 20-30 years of retirement. It's unsustainable, and there's no easy answer (increasing the retirement age is right, but it's not enough by itself and can't work for all job types).
Their logic is a Con/Lib coalition after the election is less likely if Nick Clegg is no longer an MP.
I would favor moving in the longer term to a Singapore type of model, where you have to make a mandatory contribution to a personal fund through your working life, possibly supplemented by the state if you dont earn enough, which is invested on your behalf in some stable investments, possibly long term gilts, so that by the time you need it there is sufficient money for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, they have a lot of BAME people and many of the males seemed to be gay but they certainly did not reflect the British population as a whole. All were relatively young and all were well-spoken.
As for the WWC, the Jeremy Kyle generation and the old gits ... not a sign.
They try to be unbiased but group think is powerful. They are natural iberals trying to do the unbiased thing and occasionally failing.