'Fortunately, there are signs that the leadership is starting to twig that this bunch of backbenchers might be on to something. Lynton Crosby and the party’s co-chairman, Lord Feldman, are due to meet those with a track record of campaigning.'
I disagree , there was fewer than than 700 votes between the Lib Dems and Labour in the 2012 MBC elections with a substantial vote for Respect in some wards which could go any way in 2015 .
Harrogate looks pretty blue to me see attached, as does North Yorkshire apart from the City of York which has been deepest red since 92
In the CC divisions solely in Harrogate constituency , the Lib Dems led by 300 odd votes , however there are 3 divisions split with other constituencies which the Lib Dems did not contest ( one was left to the Liberals ) . Overall the Conservatives were probably in front but not by much .
Both the Manchester and Bradford museums are important but the York railway museum is of world historical importance - I am sure Sunil will be onside on this - and must not be allowed to close. The V&A is less important than that.
You have stated your opposition to 'globalists'. What do you believe such people are? And what is it about their views you find so offensive?
Well there's the globalist left which is the EU, UN etc and the globalist right.
The "right" half of "globalization" is the off-shoring of capital into a shadow banking system from which billionaire plutocrats are effectively running a colonial regime via buying up national politicians and journalists.
The consequences of putting the interests of billionaire plutocrats before their citizens comes out in lots of little ways which collectively prevent a globalist right party from winning elections unless they can successfully pretend to be conservative *or* if the opposition party actively loses.
The Lib Dems are still very competitive in Harrogate as per the CC results .
One of the problems in predicting LibDem results have always been that in some areas where they are competitive at local level they are also competitive at parliamentary level, while in others, they seem to be competitve only at local government level. Over the years, in some seats they moved from being competitve only in local government contests to challenging for the parliamentary seats.
To predict LD gains it was usually the case of selecting the areas where they were strong at local level....the gains would have been in some of these seats...but not in all ....and frankly predicting which ones would fall was pretty difficult from outside (as I think it also depended how moribund were Conservative local Associations and CLPs in understanding the real LD threat at parliamentary level)
It looks like the National Railway Museum in York is heading in a similar direction.
For real? It's an Anglican place of worship, so surely a suggested contribution. Last time I paid money to go into the Minster was to see Tangerine Dream in 1975. It was worth it.
Very very funny poll this. I think 24% is the lowest the Tories ever polled in 1992 - 97
As I posted earlier , 18.5% was the lowest ever Con figure in 1995 and there were several polls of 21% or so . Of course the methodology from some pollsters was suspect ( as it is still today ) .
It looks like the National Railway Museum in York is heading in a similar direction.
For real? It's an Anglican place of worship, so surely a suggested contribution. Last time I paid money to go into the Minster was to see Tangerine Dream in 1975. It was worth it.
As funny as this poll is, far more damaging in the long term is the decline of tory members and Councillors. I am hoping they keep up the slow slow defect to UKIP tendency
As funny as this poll is, far more damaging in the long term is the decline of tory members and Councillors. I am hoping they keep up the slow slow defect to UKIP tendency
Why? Are you looking forward to UKIP getting into power? Or is your hatred of the baby eaters so all consuming that a party acting in a real right wing manner would be better?
That proves my point. After a campaign when the IN side will promote the reasons why we should stay in, the result will be 2:1 to stay IN. Not unexpected.
Bishops 9 Conservatives 66 Cross benchers 46 DUP 2 Ind Labour 1 (Stoddart of Swindon) Labour 16 LD 2 (one being Emma Nicholson) Non-affiliated 3 UKIP 2 UUP 1
Against
Con 80 Crossbenchers 68 Jenny Tonge Lab 160 Ind Lab 1 (Rooker of Perry Barr) LD 73 Ind LD (Rennard) Non Affiliated 4 (including Chris Smith, Baroness Uddin, Cunningham) Plaid 2
You can rest assured that there is, at least, another person who has never heard of her and still does not know who she is. I saw her in the Sun headlines.
I support the idea of free museums. It encourages people to pop in when they have a little time instead of making a whole day thing of it. It does a lot for their cafes and gift shops too.
What I would say is that those that can afford to will notice that there are always collection bins at the doors. What has your visit been worth and do you want to come back? Only new Labour thinks this sort of stuff comes free.
Collection boxes raised very very little. We discussed this at our board meeting - we only made a four thousand pounds from our 31,000 visitors. We checked with the major museums to see if we were doing something wrong - and they were amazed we got that much! One major museum, with 1m+ visitors per year, makes c. £10,000 p.a. from its very prominent collection boxes.
That is shocking. I would normally put in £20 if I had come with my family or maybe £10 on my own. How can so many just walk by? Think what it costs to go to the zoo or the theatre or a football match or a day at the cricket. I feel I am being a bit of a cheapskate actually.
Changing the mindset for this is surely key. Would anyone seriously go to York Minster and not put something in the box? I would love to hear what others think about this.
That proves my point. After a campaign when the IN side will promote the reasons why we should stay in, the result will be 2:1 to stay IN. Not unexpected.
It proves nothing. Those saying they would vote to stay in will include those who believe - incorrectly - that Cameron would be able to get some significant repatriation of powers.
He won't. And that will mean even more people deciding it is time to leave.
That proves my point. After a campaign when the IN side will promote the reasons why we should stay in, the result will be 2:1 to stay IN. Not unexpected.
lol. So call a referendum then. And yet, you won't, will you? Why is that? Why won't pro-Europeans call a referendum if they are SO convinced, as they so often tell us, that they will win "by 2:1"?
Why? Because it's total bollocks. You are shit scared that you will lose. And so you keep postponing the inevitable referendum, and in the act of postponing it, you make everyone angrier about Europe - and more likely to vote OUT, given the chance.
That is the bitter irony of the europhile position. If the europhiles called a vote now, they would probably win, but they are so scared of losing, they will prevent a vote until they are absolutely forced to yield a vote, by which time their cause will be so tainted, by their own anti-democratic evasions, the eurosceptics will win.
I have always supported a straight IN OUT referendum as i my posts here will confirm. I am not the Prime Minister.
How accurate, especially for UKIP is a baxtering though (Or any near UNS method) If we nudge UKIP up by two points then we have the first seat of Camborne and Redruth falling. Now I know it will be highish on the target list, but if UKIP win any seats it ain't going to be just this one, if this seat goes one of the East Lincs/Kent/Essex targets will go too.
Which reasonably well known MPs would lose their seats, on these sorts of figures?
Clegg, Rifkind, Soubry, IDS, Teather, Ming, Simon Hughes, to name but a few ...if you take regional swings into account, and look at trends rather than this poll, the LibDems would be decimated.
That proves my point. After a campaign when the IN side will promote the reasons why we should stay in, the result will be 2:1 to stay IN. Not unexpected.
lol. So call a referendum then. And yet, you won't, will you? Why is that? Why won't pro-Europeans call a referendum if they are SO convinced, as they so often tell us, that they will win "by 2:1"?
Why? Because it's total bollocks. You are shit scared that you will lose. And so you keep postponing the inevitable referendum, and in the act of postponing it, you make everyone angrier about Europe - and more likely to vote OUT, given the chance.
That is the bitter irony of the europhile position. If the europhiles called a vote now, they would probably win, but they are so scared of losing, they will prevent a vote until they are absolutely forced to yield a vote, by which time their cause will be so tainted, by their own anti-democratic evasions, the eurosceptics will win.
I have always supported a straight IN OUT referendum as i my posts here will confirm. I am not the Prime Minister.
But I'm right, and you know it. Europhiles won't call a vote until they are held at gunpoint and forced to agree - look at the contortions europervs like Clegg have adopted over the years, to AVOID a vote.
Why is this? If it is so obvious you would win, why do you seem so terrified of the democratic will of the people?
Pfft. You will prevent a vote until you are forced to concede a vote, which, by definition, will be the maximum moment of europhile weakness. Then you will, logically, lose.
If only there was a europhile politician with the cullions to say YES, let's ask the people, you could secure Britain's place in Europe for 20 years. But there isn't, is there? Certainly not little Ed Miliband. They are all castrati.
You may not like to read this but Ed Balls is probably your man !
You seem to have made it your mission to attack me personally and to try and damage my professional reputation.
That's the basic tactic of all left-wingers - play the man, and not the ball, because they can't win an argument unless they've got a threat over you... every left-wing state was built on that principle.
@SeanT "I don't believe the Baxtered figures that give them 0 seats on 20% of the vote, I reckon UKIP would take 10-20 seats with that kind of support."
Wishful thinking. They might get within 5000 votes of victory in one or two....
3% in 2010, 20% in 2015, theoretically. A swing of 8.5%?
Yeah, it looks that way now, without an influx of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants; the full effects of the cuts being felt; and an imminent EU election... imagine what it might look like next April. Anyone got odds on Lab, Con, and UKIP all polling in the 20s?
UKIP aren't getting into power. They aren't getting an MP on this vote.
That is true. But we should always listen to all shades of opinion. I think a UKIP vote between 6% and 10% will be good for democracy !
UKIP beating the Lib Dems will be pretty funny on election night. Double hilarity if the Tories win the popular vote (Though that is a way off...)
Actually, the Tories winning the popular vote is fairly likely - more likely I would say than UKIP beating the Libdems. If I had to make a wild prediction of vote shares at the next election (can only be a wild prediction this far out) it would be something like this:
Cons 34 Lab 31 Libs 15 UKIP 10
Labour largest party, but not by much, and some way off a majority. Labour and the Libdems to have a small but just about workable majority between them, and go into a somewhat shaky coalition.
Both the Manchester and Bradford museums are important but the York railway museum is of world historical importance - I am sure Sunil will be onside on this - and must not be allowed to close. The V&A is less important than that.
Given that I've never actually been to the NRM, I bloody well hope it doesn't close!
God, that's still an amazing pop song. In fact, I'd go further and say that it is, still, 3 of the greatest minutes of music written in the last 100 years.
Compare and contrast with the entire output, operas and all, of a flatulent modernist classical composer like "Sir" Harrison Birtwistle. When everything that Birtwistle ever thought, wrote, or expressed is long buried and forgotten, along with the man himself, people across the world will still play Every Breath You Take.
Has any other art-form taken as bad a wrong turn as classical music?
Agree - great pop song! And I can remember it when it was in the charts - albeit when I was only 7!
@Sunil_Prasannan "Ah apologies - so how would we calculate theoretical UKIP shares (assuming a Nationwide 20%) in 2015 in any given constituency compared with 2010?"
UNS suggests just adding 17 [20-3] to each constituency voteshare UKIP obtained in 2010.
If you want to add a bit of randomness in Excel you could try something like NORMINV(RAND(),20,X), where X is the estimated Standard Deviation of the vote, 3.0 in 2010, probably higher if voteshare rises to 20, but unlikely to be more than 8.0.
Or you could try... 2010 UKIP constituency voteshare + NORMINV(RAND(),17,Y), where Y is the estimated Standard Deviation of the change of the vote, probably around 4 or less.
Replicate these across 632 constituencies, and see how many UKIP exceeds 30% in. This figure would be the number of seats UKIP could conceivably win. The actually number of wins could be a tenth or a hundreth of that number, however...
@Sunil_Prasannan "Ah apologies - so how would we calculate theoretical UKIP shares (assuming a Nationwide 20%) in 2015 in any given constituency compared with 2010?"
UNS suggests just adding 17 [20-3] to each constituency voteshare UKIP obtained in 2010.
If you want to add a bit of randomness in Excel you could try something like NORMINV(RAND(),20,X), where X is the estimated Standard Deviation of the vote, 3.0 in 2010, probably higher if voteshare rises to 20, but unlikely to be more than 8.0.
Or you could try... 2010 UKIP constituency voteshare + NORMINV(RAND(),17,Y), where Y is the estimated Standard Deviation of the change of the vote, probably around 4 or less.
Replicate these across 632 constituencies, and see how many UKIP exceeds 30% in. This figure would be the number of seats UKIP could conceivably win. The actually number of wins could be a tenth or a hundreth of that number, however...
I don't suppose this will make a huge difference, but since the BNP seems to have effectively ceased to exist and its voters been swallowed up by UKIP, you could probably safely add the two together when calculating both the swing from last time and the base they start from in each seat.
Comments
'Fortunately, there are signs that the leadership is starting to twig that this bunch of backbenchers might be on to something. Lynton Crosby and the party’s co-chairman, Lord Feldman, are due to meet those with a track record of campaigning.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10098524/Curry-Club-Conservatives-can-spice-things-up.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22762318
You have stated your opposition to 'globalists'. What do you believe such people are? And what is it about their views you find so offensive?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Harrogate looks pretty blue to me see attached, as does North Yorkshire apart from the City of York which has been deepest red since 92
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/342020017711353857/photo/1
Isn't the Speaker meant to be neutral?
The "right" half of "globalization" is the off-shoring of capital into a shadow banking system from which billionaire plutocrats are effectively running a colonial regime via buying up national politicians and journalists.
The consequences of putting the interests of billionaire plutocrats before their citizens comes out in lots of little ways which collectively prevent a globalist right party from winning elections unless they can successfully pretend to be conservative *or* if the opposition party actively loses.
To predict LD gains it was usually the case of selecting the areas where they were strong at local level....the gains would have been in some of these seats...but not in all ....and frankly predicting which ones would fall was pretty difficult from outside (as I think it also depended how moribund were Conservative local Associations and CLPs in understanding the real LD threat at parliamentary level)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10099705/John-Bercow-Migrants-are-better-workers.html
49% in
http://news.sky.com/story/1099455/sky-news-poll-reveals-huge-divide-on-europe
http://www.yorkminster.org/visit-york-minster/opening-times-amp-admission.html
Their lowest was 18.5%
Any idea what an all time low is by a "respectable" pollster
Tomorrow's night hawks will be N Dubz themed.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/342026626785214467/photo/1
But I learn there's a Lord Stevenson of Balmacara (a friend of Gordon). And Balmacara is in Scotland and not an exotic place on the Spanish coast.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22762040
Never mind.
For the wrecking amendement:
Bishops 9
Conservatives 66
Cross benchers 46
DUP 2
Ind Labour 1 (Stoddart of Swindon)
Labour 16
LD 2 (one being Emma Nicholson)
Non-affiliated 3
UKIP 2
UUP 1
Against
Con 80
Crossbenchers 68
Jenny Tonge
Lab 160
Ind Lab 1 (Rooker of Perry Barr)
LD 73
Ind LD (Rennard)
Non Affiliated 4 (including Chris Smith, Baroness Uddin, Cunningham)
Plaid 2
Changing the mindset for this is surely key. Would anyone seriously go to York Minster and not put something in the box? I would love to hear what others think about this.
He won't. And that will mean even more people deciding it is time to leave.
UKIP aren't getting into power. They aren't getting an MP on this vote.
If we nudge UKIP up by two points then we have the first seat of Camborne and Redruth falling. Now I know it will be highish on the target list, but if UKIP win any seats it ain't going to be just this one, if this seat goes one of the East Lincs/Kent/Essex targets will go too.
...if you take regional swings into account, and look at trends rather than this poll, the LibDems would be decimated.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFNVZDV4bWQzWkJHUjAwNDE3Tm1SLWc#gid=0
No, swing isn't calculated that way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMOGaugKpzs
Cons 34
Lab 31
Libs 15
UKIP 10
Labour largest party, but not by much, and some way off a majority. Labour and the Libdems to have a small but just about workable majority between them, and go into a somewhat shaky coalition.
"Ah apologies - so how would we calculate theoretical UKIP shares (assuming a Nationwide 20%) in 2015 in any given constituency compared with 2010?"
UNS suggests just adding 17 [20-3] to each constituency voteshare UKIP obtained in 2010.
If you want to add a bit of randomness in Excel you could try something like
NORMINV(RAND(),20,X), where X is the estimated Standard Deviation of the vote, 3.0 in 2010, probably higher if voteshare rises to 20, but unlikely to be more than 8.0.
Or you could try... 2010 UKIP constituency voteshare + NORMINV(RAND(),17,Y), where Y is the estimated Standard Deviation of the change of the vote, probably around 4 or less.
Replicate these across 632 constituencies, and see how many UKIP exceeds 30% in. This figure would be the number of seats UKIP could conceivably win. The actually number of wins could be a tenth or a hundreth of that number, however...
So was Maggie. June 9th, 1983, re-elected with a landslide 144 majority...
Nah...
3 of the greatest minutes of "pop music", perhaps...