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It will make for grim reading for the Blues, all the other parties will be delighted. Labour haven’t slipped, the Yellows have nearly seen their support up by nearly 50% from 7% to 10%, UKIP up 1% and nearly polling double the Lib Dems score.
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It's another terrrr-ible evening for the Conservatives.
We constantly hear about all the mega shrewd "ahead of the bookies" political bets everyone has... how about someone prices up a UKIP-Tory crossover in any VI opinion poll this year?
Pick a price you think is right
Lets quit the petty tribal ner ners and let dough decide who was right!
No Yes
1/7 4/1?
1/6 7/2?
1/5 10/3?
2/9 3/1?
1/4 11/4?
2/7 5/2?
1/3 9/4?
4/11 2/1?
2/5 7/4?
4/9 13/8?
1/2 6/4?
8/15 11/8?
4/7 5/4?
8/13 6/5?
4/6 11/10?
8/11 EVS?
5/6 5/6?
*Of course, the PCP appears to be capable only of panic or complacency, so Roman resilience may be hoping for the improbable.
On a betting note, I was sorely tempted by the 4.6 for Sharapova to beat Jankovic 2-1. Half of their matches (6 in truth, they've played 9 times but 3 ended with retirement/walkover) ended with that scoreline. However, they've only met once on clay.
I don't think George Osborne should be executed either.
Result in 10 to 15 mins.
Is the Tories' equal lowest share in this parliament.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
UKIP's problem isn't having a referendum, and it hasn't been that for a while. It is still more likely to happen in the next parliament than this one.
The big problem will be winning it, against the scaremongering from the main party leaders and the BBC.
Result will take a lot longer.
Do you even understand what you are asking about?
Should a donation from a church group include an element for the church building?
Should a donation from Charles include an element for Daddy's staff that made it possible?
Should a donation from a banker include a calculation for the overheads of his workplace?
Should a newspaper endorsement be counted as a donation in kind?
But Dave gets a diversion and avoids a recall bill, that's what this is about
In the meantime,feel free to answer SO's point about Free School costs.
You must be so concerned about their secret funding.
Yes, I do understand what I am asking about. Soft money is very closely monitored and regulated in the City (and rightly so), so I am well aware of the nuances of the issue. Fundamentally, they are donations of value in a specie other than cash. To take your examples:
If the church group allows a political party to hold a campaign event in their church hall, without charging a fee, then yes, that is a donation, even if no money changes hand.
The monetary value of a donation from an individual should be counted, but as it doesn't belong to the company that generated the earnings there is no impact. If, say, I was to second my assistant to work for a political party for 3 months (or to spend 2 hours photocopying) and to pay her salary then that should be counted.
A donation from a banker is covered by para 2 above.
A newspaper endorsement is more complicated - arguably it has value. That said, it is an expression of free speech so should probably not be considered a donation.
So all your points are very simply dealt with. The fundamental point is that if an organisation gives a political party something of value then it should be counted towards the limits. This is regardless of whether it is cash, office space, photocopying, staff, an airplane, whatever.
On Free Schools, transparency is generally better. I don't why this information is not public (presumably because it would be used as a weapon against the policy - in the way that people misused the cost information for the Boris buses). It doesn't alter the fact that after a suitable period of time - say 3 or 5 years to allow the policy to bed in - the government should do a proper cost benefit analysis. If the improvements in education outcomes are not good enough, or the cost to achieve those improvements is too high, then the policy isn't working and should be amended or dropped.
Yes 148
No 390
Bill survives. Next: Vote on 2nd Reading.
A total and utter devastating defeat for the swivel eyed loons.
Tory/UKIP 43%
Labour 37%
I could have put in so many 80s musics references into this thread.
Con 12% = 222 seats
Lab 18% = 377 seats
L/lib 6% = 32 seats
Others 4% =24 seats
Why should valuable, non-cash, donations from unions not be counted towards campaign limits?
Three national museums face prospect of charging for entry - and they're all in the north
National Rail Museum at York and Shildon, Manchester's Museum of Science and Industry (MoSI), and Bradford's National Media Museum warned to brace themselves
From now to 2015 any government minister that is opening his mouth and not talking about the economy, welfare reform, immigration and employment (Mr Gove a possible exception) really needs to think if it is necessary to do so. And the swivel eyed mob really needs to be quiet, seriously quiet.
Not much chance of the latter of course but surely self preservation kicks in at some point?
"I don't believe the Baxtered figures that give them 0 seats on 20% of the vote, I reckon UKIP would take 10-20 seats with that kind of support."
Wishful thinking. They might get within 5000 votes of victory in one or two....
Zero so far.
Political BETTING dot com
I'm not trying to make a living out of the bet, maybe a tenner for fun! Something other than Tories blaming Labour, Labour supporters blaming Osborne, LDs praising the LDs, and so on
& the big three largely agreeing on things that UKIP are against
All good stuff, but can get a bit repetitive day after day, and no one EVER admits they are wrong
So why not a little bet here and there from the self proclaimed experts... they'll factor a rogue poll into the price if they know what they're doing
"Three national museums face prospect of charging for entry - and they're all in the north"
Ah well, I suggest you come to National Museums Liverpool instead. One million objects and works of art across 8 museums and galleries. All absolutely free...
Not a fan of Thatcher myself and even Ms Streep would not get me watching.
If my church group was to turn out as an organisation for a political party then it should be counted as a donation. But they don't.
I haven't asked any of my political contacts wht's in the bill - been too busy making money for my employer
It was a real shame that Hugo Swire got yelled down - and lost his job - for even floating the idea back in 2007 (especially as he had previously run development for one of the major museums and really knew what he was talking about). I'm not saying charging is the right decision, for all museums, but surely museums should be allowed to charge if they want to
But I'm guessing you're avoiding the question as you don't want to try to defend the indefensible.
(FWIW, I'm sending a draft contract to a major vaccines company tomorrow - they are paying my employer more than £2 million for the right to use up to 20% of my time over the next 6 months. I guess they think that my views on the topic have some value).
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
Perhaps more of the 1% should put their hands in their pockets and contribute towards acquisitions and education. Also, the most important part of education is getting people to put their feet through the front door in the first place.
I would politely request that you withdraw that comment and do not make any further comments about me or any member of my family in respect of vaccines.
http://labourlist.org/2013/06/poll-shows-support-for-more-borrowing-to-fuel-growth-and-jobs/
What I would say is that those that can afford to will notice that there are always collection bins at the doors. What has your visit been worth and do you want to come back? Only new Labour thinks this sort of stuff comes free.
The only problem with this is that I suspect it would come in with 55% in, 45% out. Which gets us into Quebec-land. Constant votes on leaving. Constant narrow votes in favour of staying. Which probably leads to the worst of all worlds economically, as businesses decide to invest elsewhere where the political situation is more sure:- if I was opening a car plants business, it might be important to me that Britain was in the EU; if I were opening a bank, it might be important that it were not.
Similarly, and this is a more important question for the Conservative Party: would UKIP disappear after either (a) a vote for staying in, or (b) a vote for leaving? I suspect that the socially conservative voice of UKIP is sorely missed from the political discourse at current (and I say this is a borderline libertarian who disagrees with UKIP on pretty much all social issues). For this reason, I suspect UKIP would survive a referendum, whatever the result. And this is a key challenge to the Conservative Party.
Education is a very specific programme: it's not just getting them through the door as you need full time staff to work with the schools. We had 61 schools in 11 weeks for our recent exhibition, for instance - but it needs a huge amount of preparation, liasion and follow up.
The biggest problem that the major museums have with fund raising is that many donors believe that any cash they give will just be offset by the government cutting their annual subvention.
Personally, I would look closely at charging a nominal amount (say £1 per night) on hotel bills with the money going directly to museums and gallaries. In 2012 there were 31m visits to the UK with an average stay of 7.4 nights. Even allowing for some dimunition if you added £1 per night to the cost, that would suggest there is potentially £200m of funding to shoot for.
If the decision is devolved to museum management then it becomes a legitimate resource allocation question, not a question of paternalism.
But enough.
They need to be way in the distance. Shares in the mid thirties aren't good enough regardless of what Tories are on.
If they'd used the cover-up over the grooming as an example to hammer the nomenklatura over PC they'd be on 40%+ and New Labour on 30.
edit: meant 50%
Majority of Cons peers voted for gay marriage.
In the scheme of things, though, both are relatively small beer.
A few months ago I posted the scandal of the NRM's overhaul of the Flying Scotsman, which is massively over budget and may not now even be completed. £2.6 million spent and the end is not in sight. Anyone interested in project (mis)management should read the report and weep.
If they want to be free, then they should at least manage themselves well. The NRM has not.
£26.7m grant in aid (government support)
£2m donations & legacies
£7.7m other income
£0.7m investment income
Of the £7.7m, trading income was £2.7m and concessions £900K
The hope then is volatility and an improving economy. For all that Avery grasps every positive statistic as a drowning man grabs a lifebelt, the lag between the improvement and the feeling among the electorate of improvement may yet be this Government's undoing. Things may get better 6-12 months too late making 2015 a good election to win.
The relevant stat is more Con Lords voted for gay marriage than against.
Whereas in the Commons, more Con MPs voted against than for.
So a surprising result. Con Lords more in touch than Con MPs!!!!!!
Or possibly it's just that they know writing is on wall - plus constitutional issue that it had passed the Commons so shouldn't be blocked.
A £5 for a one-off "tourist" visit,
A £10 season ticket for locals,
One free Sunday a month.
The Times only yesterday said a Lords majority of only 60 was expected for gay marriage. In fact it was 242.
I think it shows a lot of Lords have woken up and smelt the coffee.
If you do, what price would you make me Tories <30% in the next GE?
The rubbish they posited on Turkey is unbelievable.
It looks like the National Railway Museum in York is heading in a similar direction.
Alternatively an actual Conservative party i.e. UKIP crossover + chunk of Tory vote + chunk of Labour vote can win as themselves.
A better bet would be an Even money "under or over" 30-something %
and very FPT wrt the polls:
Everyone is having fun in the sun right now, I might even do it if a pollster asked me, why not? Anything to keep the mass debate going.
UKIP are a NOTA party and I would be worried if I were Lab because having two overtly no-policy parties will only mean, come January 2015, that the (currently only) party with policies cleans up.