Who has come down 10 on the back of the SNP rise in spins market ?
From when the markets first opened in Nov mid price changes
Labour minus 8
Con plus 5
LDs no change
UKIP minus 0.5
SNP plus 8.5
Thanks
So they must think others are down 5 I guess?
I think there's a rick at SPIN.
Because if you combine the mid points today, it puts the 5 Parties on 633.
Which means they expect only 17 MPs not to be from the above.
Considering we've got 18 Northern Irish MPs before we add in the five MPs from Plaid, Speaker and Respect....
Yeah I added them up earlier and saw it left 17 but I didn't know how many NI / Welsh etc there were
Selling everyone is 623.5...
Maybe sell the three biggest Westminster parties at 588 / buying others at 62 could be the angle, so if things stay as they are in wakes and Ireland green and respect you are paying 36 for Ukip and SNP
Calling TSE and any other Abba fans out there - looking for some background music to my current dull translation (German IT security regulations), I came across this 45-minute video of their Polish tour, with lots of scenes I've not seen before (thus was no good for the translation as i gave up to watch it) - there is a faintly unpolished air to the whole thing which gives it real charm. The one at 33' where they battle heroically with giant inflated balloons that the studio has decided to put in is hilarious.
Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) 02/01/2015 22:33 40 asylum seekers refuse to get off bus in Swedish village because they wanted to live in a city dailym.ai/1vSiakO
I find this hard to believe as Ebola is passed on by nursing late stage Ebola patients or touching the dead body of someone who has contracted Ebola. Can't really see ISIS fighters doing this.
Seems to me this is most likely wishful thinking by those who hate ISIS
Otherwise could this be biological warfare in action?
German five-year yields dropped below zero for the first time ever, touching -0.007pc on the first day of new year trading, implying that investors are willing to pay the German government to store their money for the rest of this decade.
The article doesn't actually say Neil Lawson is a close aide of Miliband, and he isn't. He's the one-man spokesman of Compass, and has ploughed his specialised furrow for years.
Mr Hodges described him as "Neal Lawson – a member of Ed Miliband’s early kitchen cabinet – set out the thinking behind the strategy."
Good to see expert commentators Rod and GIN agreeing (largely) with me.
Ave it does not project any one party getting an overall majority. It is possible that CON and LD in aggregate will have enough seats to continue the Coalition even though LD have been nasty to CON today!
If it comes down to it we will secure the support of DUP (10 seats) which will get us over the line.
Some of the current Tory posters on here now are worse than the Labour-bots in terms of being reduced to making snide comments about UKIP being racist against brown people. And the actual Tory party is now working with the Guardian to leak stories critical of UKIP. And Tory supporters openly prefer to work with left-wing parties in Coalition rather than another conservative party.
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
SCOTLAND: anyone who thinks SNP will get 45 or 48 or 51 or whatever is delusional.
SNP MAY gain 5 or so seats from SLAB. It will probably gain a similar number from LD. That's it. And that is based on SNP 32% which is the most they will get in a Westminster election. There are only a handful of SLAB seats in range on that sort of result.
IF SNP get 45% then the current projection will turn out to be true. But that won't happen. When it comes down to it most SLAB are Unionist and will not vote SNP as they realise that will help CON still be the biggest party.
On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.
The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
On topic - sell the SNP at 28.5. They currently hold 6 seats, they have no chance of winning DCT off the Tories, so lets see what they might win.
From the Lib Dems:
Gordon, Argyle & Bute - in the bag Inverness etc, Caithness etc - better than 50-50 chance Edinburgh West - possible, 4 way marginal East Dunbartonshire, North East Fife, WAK - possible but unlikely Berwickshire etc - no chance, LD/Con fight Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber - no chance, safe LD
So, 4 looking likely, 8 the outside. I'd say the SNP would be happy with 5 of these, and 6 would be a good night, so lets be generous and say they get 6, that takes them to 12. To beat 28.5 they then need at least 17 seats from Labour.
This would entail the SNP either taking seats like Edinburgh South, where they have no chance (but is within their top 17 seats with the smallest gap to Labour); or else seats like Glasgow Central and Paisley North, where Labour have majorities approaching 35%. It just is not going to happen - the SNP will be doing very well if they take 10 seats from Labour.
I confess that when the SNP poll bounce first became apparent I had them down to win 12-14 seats (gain 6-8), and I now predict they will win about 20 (gain about 14), but it really is a stretch to imagine them winning 29+.
Calling TSE and any other Abba fans out there - looking for some background music to my current dull translation (German IT security regulations), I came across this 45-minute video of their Polish tour, with lots of scenes I've not seen before (thus was no good for the translation as i gave up to watch it) - there is a faintly unpolished air to the whole thing which gives it real charm. The one at 33' where they battle heroically with giant inflated balloons that the studio has decided to put in is hilarious.
FTO I think the SNP will win seats from Labour and the LDs, but is Gordon nailed on if Tory and Labour voters tactically vote LD to stop Salmond? It voted No in indyref
We'll see, with the upcoming individual constituency polls where the SNP vote is coming from.
If it is hollowing out the core Labour C2DE vote, then pretty much every labour seat is at risk.
Ironically, the SNP could end up taking all but a handful of labour seats, yet fail to take Murphy friendly places like East Dunbartonshire, which could stay Lib dem.
I really can't wait for the constituency polls, it's going to be fascinating.
On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.
The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
I had the same dilemma - in the end, I took profits on my SPIN buy bets and placed a fixed odds punt on Labour winning 10 or less Scottish seats at 12/1.
That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
The idea that the SNP might win 50 (or 40 (or 30)) MPs seems to be inherently ridiculous, regardless of what the opinion polls say. I can't help thinking it's an artificial mid-term (albeit that it is not chronologically in mid-term) surge or souffle which is going to collapse.
Question for people older than me: What was the SNP expected to get in the run-up to the general election from about 1972 onwards? Were the 7 (and then 11) seats they got about as many as expected? Or was it a disappointment compared with expectations/hype? Or more than expected?
FTO I think the SNP will win seats from Labour and the LDs, but is Gordon nailed on if Tory and Labour voters tactically vote LD to stop Salmond? It voted No in indyref
Whether a constituency voted Yes or No will not be a good indicator of whether or not they will vote SNP. Salmond will win Gordon at a trot - even if there is tactical voting against him, the anti SNP vote won't know where to go, as any of the other 3 parties could come second. I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Lib Dems finished 4th in Gordon.
On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.
The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
I had the same dilemma - in the end, I took profits on my SPIN buy bets and placed a fixed odds punt on Labour winning 10 or less Scottish seats at 12/1.
That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
The Lib Dems and Conservatives between them will almost certainly win somewhere between 4 and 9 seats in Scotland (my current estimate would be 7). This leaves 50 seats between Labour and SNP, therefore, if you believe Labour are even in the remotest danger of being reduced to anything close to 10 seats, you'd be far better off sticking with the SNP at >30.5 than backing Labour to get <10.
Aside, if anyone is interested the LD/Con Scottish seats are as follows:
LD certainties (2): Orkney & Shetland; Ross, Skye & Lochaber Con certainty (1): Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale LD/Con marginal (1): Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LD probable (1): North East Fife (SNP chance) Con probable (1): West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (SNP/LD chance) LD possible (2): Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (strong SNP chance in both) Anything possible (1): Edinburgh West
On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.
The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
I had the same dilemma - in the end, I took profits on my SPIN buy bets and placed a fixed odds punt on Labour winning 10 or less Scottish seats at 12/1.
That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.
The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
I'm keeping my SPIN position open as I think the SNP surge has a bit to run, I'll close it out once the SNP flat line.
We'll see, with the upcoming individual constituency polls where the SNP vote is coming from.
If it is hollowing out the core Labour C2DE vote, then pretty much every labour seat is at risk.
Ironically, the SNP could end up taking all but a handful of labour seats, yet fail to take Murphy friendly places like East Dunbartonshire, which could stay Lib dem.
I really can't wait for the constituency polls, it's going to be fascinating.
I'm sad like that </blockquote
In my constituency, Stirling, the SNP have hollowed out all demographic groups.
The idea that the SNP might win 50 (or 40 (or 30)) MPs seems to be inherently ridiculous, regardless of what the opinion polls say. I can't help thinking it's an artificial mid-term (albeit that it is not chronologically in mid-term) surge or souffle which is going to collapse.
Question for people older than me: What was the SNP expected to get in the run-up to the general election from about 1972 onwards? Were the 7 (and then 11) seats they got about as many as expected? Or was it a disappointment compared with expectations/hype? Or more than expected?
I take it you don't live in Scotland - the SNP will easily win my seat, Stirling, which is around 30th on their target list. I cant see the SNP getting any less than 40 seats.
Comments
Four more months
Train fares up 20%
Average wages up only 7%
Labour minus 8
Con plus 5
LDs no change
UKIP minus 0.5
SNP plus 8.5
Means you'll be able to do your Midlands to London journey in about 9 mins.
A weekly thread/tracker with say Ladbrokes showing which how many seats each party is favourite in to win in May?
So they must think others are down 5 I guess?
'Thierry Henry, a waste of money' to at Upton Pk 1999
Now sheena eastons on before prince sexed her up!
@hugorifkind: Is she dressed as a ... dentist? #Totp80
Because if you combine the mid points today, it puts the 5 Parties on 633.
Which means they expect only 17 MPs not to be from the above.
Considering we've got 18 Northern Irish MPs before we add in the five MPs from Plaid, Speaker and Respect....
Selling everyone is 623.5...
Maybe sell the three biggest Westminster parties at 588 / buying others at 62 could be the angle, so if things stay as they are in wakes and Ireland green and respect you are paying 36 for Ukip and SNP
I think
Though this version of Lady Gaga's Poker Face.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm8z0XBgX1U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRqBJUHz4_0
02/01/2015 22:33
40 asylum seekers refuse to get off bus in Swedish village because they wanted to live in a city dailym.ai/1vSiakO
Revised final 2014 weekly ELBOW including this poll:
Lab 34.2%
Con 31.6
UKIP 15.4
LD 7.5
Lab lead 2.6%
"Are you Tottenham in disguise?" .
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2894154/ISIS-fighters-contracted-Ebola-World-Health-Organisation-investigating-reports-Islamist-militants-disease-showed-Iraqi-hospital.html
I find this hard to believe as Ebola is passed on by nursing late stage Ebola patients or touching the dead body of someone who has contracted Ebola. Can't really see ISIS fighters doing this.
Seems to me this is most likely wishful thinking by those who hate ISIS
Otherwise could this be biological warfare in action?
Europe's bond yields fall to lowest since the Black Death
'What we are seeing is the "Japanification" trade. The eurozone is sinking into corrosive deflation,' warns RBS
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322680/Europes-bond-yields-fall-to-lowest-since-the-Black-Death.html
CON 34%
LAB 27%
LD 15%
UKIP 10%
GRN 7%
OTH 7%
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11322038/Ed-Milibands-New-Politics-is-dead.-Dont-bother-sending-flowers.html
Best wishes to David and his wife from me also. Hope everything is ok.
Ave it does not project any one party getting an overall majority. It is possible that CON and LD in aggregate will have enough seats to continue the Coalition even though LD have been nasty to CON today!
If it comes down to it we will secure the support of DUP (10 seats) which will get us over the line.
SNP MAY gain 5 or so seats from SLAB. It will probably gain a similar number from LD. That's it. And that is based on SNP 32% which is the most they will get in a Westminster election. There are only a handful of SLAB seats in range on that sort of result.
IF SNP get 45% then the current projection will turn out to be true. But that won't happen. When it comes down to it most SLAB are Unionist and will not vote SNP as they realise that will help CON still be the biggest party.
The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
From the Lib Dems:
Gordon, Argyle & Bute - in the bag
Inverness etc, Caithness etc - better than 50-50 chance
Edinburgh West - possible, 4 way marginal
East Dunbartonshire, North East Fife, WAK - possible but unlikely
Berwickshire etc - no chance, LD/Con fight
Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber - no chance, safe LD
So, 4 looking likely, 8 the outside. I'd say the SNP would be happy with 5 of these, and 6 would be a good night, so lets be generous and say they get 6, that takes them to 12. To beat 28.5 they then need at least 17 seats from Labour.
This would entail the SNP either taking seats like Edinburgh South, where they have no chance (but is within their top 17 seats with the smallest gap to Labour); or else seats like Glasgow Central and Paisley North, where Labour have majorities approaching 35%. It just is not going to happen - the SNP will be doing very well if they take 10 seats from Labour.
I confess that when the SNP poll bounce first became apparent I had them down to win 12-14 seats (gain 6-8), and I now predict they will win about 20 (gain about 14), but it really is a stretch to imagine them winning 29+.
If it is hollowing out the core Labour C2DE vote, then pretty much every labour seat is at risk.
Ironically, the SNP could end up taking all but a handful of labour seats, yet fail to take Murphy friendly places like East Dunbartonshire, which could stay Lib dem.
I really can't wait for the constituency polls, it's going to be fascinating.
I'm sad like that
That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
Question for people older than me: What was the SNP expected to get in the run-up to the general election from about 1972 onwards? Were the 7 (and then 11) seats they got about as many as expected? Or was it a disappointment compared with expectations/hype? Or more than expected?
Aside, if anyone is interested the LD/Con Scottish seats are as follows:
LD certainties (2): Orkney & Shetland; Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Con certainty (1): Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
LD/Con marginal (1): Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
LD probable (1): North East Fife (SNP chance)
Con probable (1): West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (SNP/LD chance)
LD possible (2): Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (strong SNP chance in both)
Anything possible (1): Edinburgh West
M