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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats

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  • Scott_P said:

    advertising can never make up for a weak product

    Ed is ****ed then
    neither blue nor red is looking convincing.
    The resistible force meets the moveable object.
  • Scott_P said:

    advertising can never make up for a weak product

    Ed is ****ed then
    neither blue nor red is looking convincing.
    The resistible force meets the moveable object.
    I believe whatever doesn't kill you, simply makes you... stranger.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He achieved all of this after his career ending tears at Lady Thatcher's funeral.

    That was only his seventh career ending misfortune...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited January 2015
    RobD said:

    Sort of on topic

    Tories to outspend Labour by 3 to 1 in general election

    Ed Miliband’s campaign chief insists party can win key seats through ‘conversation by conversation’ local activism

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/02/labour-general-election-campaign-douglas-alexander

    Tories to outspend Labour by 3 to 1 in general election

    they sort of need to

    but advertising can never make up for a weak product
    George Osborne is the most popular politician in the country*

    He's not a weak product. He's the Bollinger to Labour's white lightning.

    *technically he's the least unpopular politician in the country.
    And the most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy to boot!
    Four more months :)
    Four more months :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Four more months :)
    Four more months :)

    Five more years...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited January 2015
    Scott_P said:


    Four more months :)
    Four more months :)

    Five more years...
    Since 2010:

    Train fares up 20%
    Average wages up only 7%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited January 2015
    isam said:

    Who has come down 10 on the back of the SNP rise in spins market ?

    From when the markets first opened in Nov mid price changes

    Labour minus 8

    Con plus 5

    LDs no change

    UKIP minus 0.5

    SNP plus 8.5
  • Scott_P said:


    Four more months :)
    Four more months :)

    Five more years...
    Since 2010:

    Train fares up 20%
    Average wages up only 7%
    But we're getting HS2.

    Means you'll be able to do your Midlands to London journey in about 9 mins.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Incidentally for PBers of a certain age BBC 4 have a ToTP 1980 special. Marvellous after a long trip back from the folks!
  • Incidentally for PBers of a certain age BBC 4 have a ToTP 1980 special. Marvellous after a long trip back from the folks!

    Bob feckin Carolgees and Spit the Dog!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My thoughts and best wishes are with David Herdson's wife and with David himself.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited January 2015
    On topic, there remains value on the seats markets on the SNP.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Incidentally for PBers of a certain age BBC 4 have a ToTP 1980 special. Marvellous after a long trip back from the folks!

    Bob feckin Carolgees and Spit the Dog!
    Now running a candle shop in Cheshire...
  • How does this sound for an idea?

    A weekly thread/tracker with say Ladbrokes showing which how many seats each party is favourite in to win in May?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Who has come down 10 on the back of the SNP rise in spins market ?

    From when the markets first opened in Nov mid price changes

    Labour minus 8

    Con plus 5

    LDs no change

    UKIP minus 0.5

    SNP plus 8.5
    Thanks

    So they must think others are down 5 I guess?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Best wishes to Mrs H for a speedy recovery and to David.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Incidentally for PBers of a certain age BBC 4 have a ToTP 1980 special. Marvellous after a long trip back from the folks!

    They're playing the song that west hAm fans sang

    'Thierry Henry, a waste of money' to at Upton Pk 1999

    Now sheena eastons on before prince sexed her up!
  • Scott_P said:


    Four more months :)
    Four more months :)

    Five more years...
    Since 2010:

    Train fares up 20%
    Average wages up only 7%
    But we're getting HS2.

    Means you'll be able to do your Midlands to London journey in about 9 mins.
    How much are the tickets though? 100 bajillion BitCamerons?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    Now sheena eastons on before prince sexed her up!

    Which explains this...

    @hugorifkind: Is she dressed as a ... dentist? #Totp80
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ramones only decent song now...
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Who has come down 10 on the back of the SNP rise in spins market ?

    From when the markets first opened in Nov mid price changes

    Labour minus 8

    Con plus 5

    LDs no change

    UKIP minus 0.5

    SNP plus 8.5
    Thanks

    So they must think others are down 5 I guess?
    I think there's a rick at SPIN.

    Because if you combine the mid points today, it puts the 5 Parties on 633.

    Which means they expect only 17 MPs not to be from the above.

    Considering we've got 18 Northern Irish MPs before we add in the five MPs from Plaid, Speaker and Respect....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @ArnieEtc: On Facebook Cllr Sam Fletcher reckons that Ukip will soon announce their support for renationalising the railways.

  • Christmas number 1 from 1980 was of course St Winifred's School Choir :)
  • Anyone who doesn't like 80s music vote should be stripped of the vote.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Who has come down 10 on the back of the SNP rise in spins market ?

    From when the markets first opened in Nov mid price changes

    Labour minus 8

    Con plus 5

    LDs no change

    UKIP minus 0.5

    SNP plus 8.5
    Thanks

    So they must think others are down 5 I guess?
    I think there's a rick at SPIN.

    Because if you combine the mid points today, it puts the 5 Parties on 633.

    Which means they expect only 17 MPs not to be from the above.

    Considering we've got 18 Northern Irish MPs before we add in the five MPs from Plaid, Speaker and Respect....
    Yeah I added them up earlier and saw it left 17 but I didn't know how many NI / Welsh etc there were

    Selling everyone is 623.5...

    Maybe sell the three biggest Westminster parties at 588 / buying others at 62 could be the angle, so if things stay as they are in wakes and Ireland green and respect you are paying 36 for Ukip and SNP

    I think
  • TGOHF said:

    @ArnieEtc: On Facebook Cllr Sam Fletcher reckons that Ukip will soon announce their support for renationalising the railways.

    Well, it is true they were a nationalised industry back in the 50s...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Ramones only decent song now...

    Is Ace of Spades the best gambling song ever?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Best Wishes to DH and family (and to all whose Xmases didn't go as planned [including mine])
  • isam said:

    Ramones only decent song now...

    Is Ace of Spades the best gambling song ever?
    Who's sorry now by Connie Francis?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Ramones only decent song now...

    Is Ace of Spades the best gambling song ever?
    Don't let Kenny Rogers hear you say that!
  • isam said:

    Ramones only decent song now...

    Is Ace of Spades the best gambling song ever?
    ABBA's the winner takes it all.

    Though this version of Lady Gaga's Poker Face.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm8z0XBgX1U
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381
    Will we be expecting YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow or have we got to wait until Monday for first polling of 2015?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Calling TSE and any other Abba fans out there - looking for some background music to my current dull translation (German IT security regulations), I came across this 45-minute video of their Polish tour, with lots of scenes I've not seen before (thus was no good for the translation as i gave up to watch it) - there is a faintly unpolished air to the whole thing which gives it real charm. The one at 33' where they battle heroically with giant inflated balloons that the studio has decided to put in is hilarious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRqBJUHz4_0
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline)
    02/01/2015 22:33
    40 asylum seekers refuse to get off bus in Swedish village because they wanted to live in a city dailym.ai/1vSiakO
  • GIN1138 said:

    Will we be expecting YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow or have we got to wait until Monday for first polling of 2015?

    An Opinium poll seems to have slipped under the radar during Christmas Week (Lab 33/Con 29/UKIP 19/LD 6).

    Revised final 2014 weekly ELBOW including this poll:

    Lab 34.2%
    Con 31.6
    UKIP 15.4
    LD 7.5

    Lab lead 2.6%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381
    edited January 2015

    GIN1138 said:

    Will we be expecting YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow or have we got to wait until Monday for first polling of 2015?

    An Opinium poll seems to have slipped under the radar during Christmas Week (Lab 33/Con 29/UKIP 19/LD 6).

    Revised final 2014 weekly ELBOW including this poll:

    Lab 34.2%
    Con 31.6
    UKIP 15.4
    LD 7.5

    Lab lead 2.6%
    2014 is sooooooooo last year. We're waiting for 2015 polls now.

  • Still flying high after Spurs yesterday..... this is so us .... one of our chants yesterday to the Chelsea fans???


    "Are you Tottenham in disguise?" .
  • Interesting article in the Mail:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2894154/ISIS-fighters-contracted-Ebola-World-Health-Organisation-investigating-reports-Islamist-militants-disease-showed-Iraqi-hospital.html

    I find this hard to believe as Ebola is passed on by nursing late stage Ebola patients or touching the dead body of someone who has contracted Ebola. Can't really see ISIS fighters doing this.

    Seems to me this is most likely wishful thinking by those who hate ISIS

    Otherwise could this be biological warfare in action?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    3rd January and AEP is already in the running Hyperbolic Headline of the Year 2015.

    Europe's bond yields fall to lowest since the Black Death
    'What we are seeing is the "Japanification" trade. The eurozone is sinking into corrosive deflation,' warns RBS
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322680/Europes-bond-yields-fall-to-lowest-since-the-Black-Death.html
    German five-year yields dropped below zero for the first time ever, touching -0.007pc on the first day of new year trading, implying that investors are willing to pay the German government to store their money for the rest of this decade.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it GE2015 vote share projection!

    CON 34%
    LAB 27%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 10%
    GRN 7%
    OTH 7%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it GE2015 vote share projection!

    CON 34%
    LAB 27%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 10%
    GRN 7%
    OTH 7%

    That would leave us with another Con-Dem coalition as the only viable option!

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it GE2015 vote share projection!

    CON 34%
    LAB 27%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 10%
    GRN 7%
    OTH 7%

    Seems quite sensible to me. Apart from the Greens far too high...
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Moses_ said:

    Apparently Milibands close aide reckons ...

    The article doesn't actually say Neil Lawson is a close aide of Miliband, and he isn't. He's the one-man spokesman of Compass, and has ploughed his specialised furrow for years.
    Mr Hodges described him as "Neal Lawson – a member of Ed Miliband’s early kitchen cabinet – set out the thinking behind the strategy."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11322038/Ed-Milibands-New-Politics-is-dead.-Dont-bother-sending-flowers.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    TGOHF said:

    @ArnieEtc: On Facebook Cllr Sam Fletcher reckons that Ukip will soon announce their support for renationalising the railways.

    Quick post to say: if UKIP do that, I'm going back to the Tories again. Rail privatisation is a red-line for me.

    Best wishes to David and his wife from me also. Hope everything is ok.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good to see expert commentators Rod and GIN agreeing (largely) with me.

    Ave it does not project any one party getting an overall majority. It is possible that CON and LD in aggregate will have enough seats to continue the Coalition even though LD have been nasty to CON today! :)

    If it comes down to it we will secure the support of DUP (10 seats) which will get us over the line.
  • Ave_it said:

    Ave it GE2015 vote share projection!

    CON 34%
    LAB 27%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 10%
    GRN 7%
    OTH 7%

    Looks fairly plausible, if you subtract 4 points from the Greens and 2 from the Libs, add 3 each to Lab and UKIP.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:



    Some of the current Tory posters on here now are worse than the Labour-bots in terms of being reduced to making snide comments about UKIP being racist against brown people. And the actual Tory party is now working with the Guardian to leak stories critical of UKIP. And Tory supporters openly prefer to work with left-wing parties in Coalition rather than another conservative party.

    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

    For heavens's sake! Have you gone completely mad?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    SCOTLAND: anyone who thinks SNP will get 45 or 48 or 51 or whatever is delusional.

    SNP MAY gain 5 or so seats from SLAB. It will probably gain a similar number from LD. That's it. And that is based on SNP 32% which is the most they will get in a Westminster election. There are only a handful of SLAB seats in range on that sort of result.

    IF SNP get 45% then the current projection will turn out to be true. But that won't happen. When it comes down to it most SLAB are Unionist and will not vote SNP as they realise that will help CON still be the biggest party.
  • Very sorry to hear about Mrs Herdson. I hope she's recovering well.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381
    What's happened to Mrs H?
  • On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.

    The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...
  • On topic - sell the SNP at 28.5. They currently hold 6 seats, they have no chance of winning DCT off the Tories, so lets see what they might win.

    From the Lib Dems:

    Gordon, Argyle & Bute - in the bag
    Inverness etc, Caithness etc - better than 50-50 chance
    Edinburgh West - possible, 4 way marginal
    East Dunbartonshire, North East Fife, WAK - possible but unlikely
    Berwickshire etc - no chance, LD/Con fight
    Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber - no chance, safe LD

    So, 4 looking likely, 8 the outside. I'd say the SNP would be happy with 5 of these, and 6 would be a good night, so lets be generous and say they get 6, that takes them to 12. To beat 28.5 they then need at least 17 seats from Labour.

    This would entail the SNP either taking seats like Edinburgh South, where they have no chance (but is within their top 17 seats with the smallest gap to Labour); or else seats like Glasgow Central and Paisley North, where Labour have majorities approaching 35%. It just is not going to happen - the SNP will be doing very well if they take 10 seats from Labour.

    I confess that when the SNP poll bounce first became apparent I had them down to win 12-14 seats (gain 6-8), and I now predict they will win about 20 (gain about 14), but it really is a stretch to imagine them winning 29+.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave it GE2015 vote share projection!

    CON 34%
    LAB 27%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 10%
    GRN 7%
    OTH 7%

    Seems quite sensible to me. Apart from the Greens far too high...
    And UKIP too low.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    Never heard the song "Tiger" before, despite being an Abba fan. Thanks for posting.

    Calling TSE and any other Abba fans out there - looking for some background music to my current dull translation (German IT security regulations), I came across this 45-minute video of their Polish tour, with lots of scenes I've not seen before (thus was no good for the translation as i gave up to watch it) - there is a faintly unpolished air to the whole thing which gives it real charm. The one at 33' where they battle heroically with giant inflated balloons that the studio has decided to put in is hilarious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRqBJUHz4_0

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    FTO I think the SNP will win seats from Labour and the LDs, but is Gordon nailed on if Tory and Labour voters tactically vote LD to stop Salmond? It voted No in indyref
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2015
    We'll see, with the upcoming individual constituency polls where the SNP vote is coming from.

    If it is hollowing out the core Labour C2DE vote, then pretty much every labour seat is at risk.

    Ironically, the SNP could end up taking all but a handful of labour seats, yet fail to take Murphy friendly places like East Dunbartonshire, which could stay Lib dem.

    I really can't wait for the constituency polls, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm sad like that :)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.

    The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...

    I had the same dilemma - in the end, I took profits on my SPIN buy bets and placed a fixed odds punt on Labour winning 10 or less Scottish seats at 12/1.

    That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The idea that the SNP might win 50 (or 40 (or 30)) MPs seems to be inherently ridiculous, regardless of what the opinion polls say. I can't help thinking it's an artificial mid-term (albeit that it is not chronologically in mid-term) surge or souffle which is going to collapse.

    Question for people older than me: What was the SNP expected to get in the run-up to the general election from about 1972 onwards? Were the 7 (and then 11) seats they got about as many as expected? Or was it a disappointment compared with expectations/hype? Or more than expected?
  • HYUFD said:

    FTO I think the SNP will win seats from Labour and the LDs, but is Gordon nailed on if Tory and Labour voters tactically vote LD to stop Salmond? It voted No in indyref

    Whether a constituency voted Yes or No will not be a good indicator of whether or not they will vote SNP. Salmond will win Gordon at a trot - even if there is tactical voting against him, the anti SNP vote won't know where to go, as any of the other 3 parties could come second. I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Lib Dems finished 4th in Gordon.
  • Pong said:

    On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.

    The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...

    I had the same dilemma - in the end, I took profits on my SPIN buy bets and placed a fixed odds punt on Labour winning 10 or less Scottish seats at 12/1.

    That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
    The Lib Dems and Conservatives between them will almost certainly win somewhere between 4 and 9 seats in Scotland (my current estimate would be 7). This leaves 50 seats between Labour and SNP, therefore, if you believe Labour are even in the remotest danger of being reduced to anything close to 10 seats, you'd be far better off sticking with the SNP at >30.5 than backing Labour to get <10.

    Aside, if anyone is interested the LD/Con Scottish seats are as follows:

    LD certainties (2): Orkney & Shetland; Ross, Skye & Lochaber
    Con certainty (1): Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    LD/Con marginal (1): Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    LD probable (1): North East Fife (SNP chance)
    Con probable (1): West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (SNP/LD chance)
    LD possible (2): Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (strong SNP chance in both)
    Anything possible (1): Edinburgh West
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pong said:

    On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.

    The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...

    I had the same dilemma - in the end, I took profits on my SPIN buy bets and placed a fixed odds punt on Labour winning 10 or less Scottish seats at 12/1.

    That bet is still available at 8.4/1 if you're interested.
    William Hill 6-10 seats still available at 12/1.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    On topic: Ahem. I did recommend buying the SNP at 20.5.

    The question I am currently pondering is whether one should now take profits. This is rather complex to evaluate because it interacts with other bets. Taking just the spread bet part in isolation, maybe...

    I'm keeping my SPIN position open as I think the SNP surge has a bit to run, I'll close it out once the SNP flat line.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pong said:

    We'll see, with the upcoming individual constituency polls where the SNP vote is coming from.

    If it is hollowing out the core Labour C2DE vote, then pretty much every labour seat is at risk.

    Ironically, the SNP could end up taking all but a handful of labour seats, yet fail to take Murphy friendly places like East Dunbartonshire, which could stay Lib dem.

    I really can't wait for the constituency polls, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm sad like that :)</blockquote

    In my constituency, Stirling, the SNP have hollowed out all demographic groups.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    JohnLoony said:

    The idea that the SNP might win 50 (or 40 (or 30)) MPs seems to be inherently ridiculous, regardless of what the opinion polls say. I can't help thinking it's an artificial mid-term (albeit that it is not chronologically in mid-term) surge or souffle which is going to collapse.

    Question for people older than me: What was the SNP expected to get in the run-up to the general election from about 1972 onwards? Were the 7 (and then 11) seats they got about as many as expected? Or was it a disappointment compared with expectations/hype? Or more than expected?

    I take it you don't live in Scotland - the SNP will easily win my seat, Stirling, which is around 30th on their target list. I cant see the SNP getting any less than 40 seats.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,908
    AndyJS said:

    Never heard the song "Tiger" before, despite being an Abba fan. Thanks for posting.

    It was on the Arrival album (white suits and helicopter).

    M

This discussion has been closed.