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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks
The continuation of strong polling for the SNP before Christmas has reinforced the move upwards in the latest spread prices from Sporting Index. It is now exactly ten seats higher than it was in the last week in November.
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I’ve avoided the consticuency markets and focused my betting on William Hill’s SLAB seats market. I’ve built a decent position in the 0-20 seats area, I’ll make profits if SLAB wins 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and will break even at 16-20 seats. I built most of my 0-5 position at 125/1 (now down to 33/1) and it would pay out £16,000. Realistically though 11-15 seats at 7/1, is probably the best value bet.
My sense is that the SNP surge still has some way to go and would anticipate SNP levelling out at around 50%. I think SLAB will struggle to hold onto the 20% support level, let alone their current 25%. I don’t think there is anything SLAB can do to turn things around in Scotland by GE2015, so they should just focus on a proper game plan for Holyrood 2016.
Have a great weekend.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2894576/Robert-Huth-risks-FA-action-response-explicit-transgender-Twitter-messages.html
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
Mike, now that we are over the Indy Referendum, Salmond's resignation and Sturgeon's coronation tour its now business as usual up here in Scotland. And right now the SNP do have a few domestic problems which have been steadily piling up after being sidelined during the Indy Referendum campaign this year. Namely the state of the Scottish NHS.
"And the actual Tory party is now working with the Guardian to leak stories critical of UKIP. "
Do Tell ...... Preferably supported with evidence or a linky.
:-)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11321499/Bristol-bus-timetable-hacked-by-terrorists.html
I shall recycle some of your invective on the insurance company if they remain unhelpful.
Walter Peck: They caused an explosion!
Mayor: Is this true?
Dr. Peter Venkman: Yes it's true... This man has no dick.
Nice
I expect the Ashcroft polling is the next bug event to affect the SNP price.
In both cases it takes a lot of money and time to shift odds closer to actual polling.
That is why the more flexible sporting index is showing a much higher number of SNP seats than the more rigid Ladbrokes in individual seats, it's still about 20 seats short of what polls suggest but it's getting there faster.
Hohoho... Oh pleeeeasse?
"Tony Blair attracted the ‘wrong people’ to support Labour, a key ally of Ed Miliband claimed last night.
In an extraordinary intervention, Neal Lawson said the record election victories won by New Labour were ‘too big’, and had forced the party to pander to the middle classes while in government in order to keep their support."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2893838/Labour-doesn-t-want-middle-class-votes-Red-Ed-s-ally-says-Blair-attacked-wrong-people-record-election-victories.html#ixzz3Nh0OKz9x
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/36426/
I expect the SNP saga to be mostly a replay of the BQ.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/02/red-ukip-call-for-higher-unemployment-benefits/
Most football supporters have gay friends these days what with watching football now being a middle class activity, and all stadiums have cameras everywhere so any fan being abusive would end up on Match of the Day or YouTube. I think the abuse would soon die down.
As for allegedly offensive tweets by footballers, I'm not sure that the right way to handle them would be to publish them in national newspapers. Ignoring them seem more on the mark, unless they're illegal, in which case the normal process of justice should be followed.
It is not often that football fans come out for radical feminists!
That said, I personally have little problem with a pick and mix style of policy offering. The idea Labour or the Tories are defined by their ideological underpinnings today would be ludicrous, despite how much the partisans on both sides attempt to convince us otherwise, and if UKIP can come up with a mix of left or right that appeals to most people, nothing wrong with that. The same idea, perhaps less obviously, is undertaken when you see the main two jump all over the nonsensical political spectrum to issues once perceived as traditionally left or right on specific issues, if it will win them votes. UKIP are still formulating an identity now they are more of a major party is all.
Also as most EU immigrants are in work, JSA matters much less than tax credits.
In any case, the Scottish Health Service- to give it its proper name before Mr Rifkind's mischievous change - does have problems - the biggest single problem, in many areas, by far being the PFI/PPP inheritance from Labour and the Tories. Not only did this destroy many existing hospitals and replace them with much less in the way of facilities, but it burdened them into future decades with ridiculous levels of payment and a managerial inflexibility that has to be seen to be believed.
because the bloke running the treasury 1997-2007 was an English Tory ?
“There is currently no intention to discuss the issue,” Shaikh Abdul Aziz Al Shaikh said, quoted by local daily Al Riyadh on Sunday.
http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia-grand-mufti-says-no-opposition-to-underage-marriage-1.1429882
And these are the anti-Al Qaeda groups that don't count as "extremists"...
That was an impressive level of whataboutism, even for you.
David Herdson returns to his Saturday slot tomorrow - the first since his wife's car crash.
It was the Tories who invented the PPP/PFI system, though it did not develop fully until the Blair years.
SNP and fiscal rectitude ? Hows that oil price ?
You remain stuck in a Lalal land where SLAB could never be in power, the recent history of Scotland suggests otherwise.
And now we enter that interesting phase where the Holyrood govt no longer has a benign environment on which to keep spending. It will be interesting to see how the SNP handle it.
Blame the english just for a change ?
SNP - Some Nother guys Problem
Blame somebody, anybody, else...
I would form a PFI central contracts committee based in the Cabinet Office and commence renegotiation with the PFI bankers immediately and inform them we must get our house in order so bankers will have to take the haircut.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/private-finance-2-pf2
Best wishes to David and family (particularly Mrs Herdson obviously).
As for SLAB, their entire policy was based on preventing a referendum for independence, and therefore fiddling the voting system, and then when they fouled that up, getting in bed with Tories after decades denouncing them as spawn of the Thatcherite devil, allowing Mr Cameron to stab them in the back, etc. etc. They bet all on indyref and there is no way anything recogniseably SLAB could survive after losing an indyref. Not least because there is no such entity as a Scottish Labour Party - merely the local branch of Mr Miliband's organization. Less autonomy than the Scottish Tories or LDs, in fact. To talk of Labour in an independent Scotland is meaningless. No doubt some of the SLAB pols might survive and regroup, but that isn't the same thing at all.
IIRC at least one major public body in Scotland has already bitten the bullet and paid the Danegeld to eliminate the arrangement.
As ever the only formula for clapped out nationalist movements remains to accentuate the few differences there might be and to create them where none exist.
Those bastards in Westminster. Why won't they bail us out when our figures are wrong..?
Even if I'm playing catch-up I read every thread on PB (with a bit of skimming!) and I missed the news first time around (if indeed it was announced)
Tories to outspend Labour by 3 to 1 in general election
Ed Miliband’s campaign chief insists party can win key seats through ‘conversation by conversation’ local activism
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/02/labour-general-election-campaign-douglas-alexander
they sort of need to
but advertising can never make up for a weak product
He's not a weak product. He's the Bollinger to Labour's white lightning.
*technically he's the least unpopular politician in the country.
Only lefties are so enraged by Osborne's brilliance :-)
PS sorry to hear of DH and TUDs misfortunes, I hope the New Year brings better fortunes.