Minus 6 overnight here and now we are sitting on the front terrace in very warm sunshine drinking Ribolla Giallo.. a great local wine..great start to 2015
The Eurozone reminds me of the UK during the media driven triple dip hysteria, forward looking indicators are strong and accelerating with Europe being perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the fall in oil prices. I expect France and Italy to pickup with Germany lagging.
Interesting question is who will bailout Ukraine? Should be the Americans, will seriously annoy Europe if they leave us to pick up the tab.
The Progressive Conservatives went from 156 to 2?! I knew they had been beaten by newer parties and eventually subsumed within them, but had not realised things had been so dramatic. What exciting times those must have been.
The Eurozone reminds me of the UK during the media driven triple dip hysteria, forward looking indicators are strong and accelerating with Europe being perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the fall in oil prices. I expect France and Italy to pickup with Germany lagging.
Interesting question is who will bailout Ukraine? Should be the Americans, will seriously annoy Europe if they leave us to pick up the tab.
Hmmm,
A quick google to the earlier question posited to Junior resulted in this link:
The ECB’s AQR and the accompanying stress tests show that Austrian banks have made good progress in improving their resilience and have sufficient capital buffers. But there are risks from exposure to the Russia-Ukraine tensions. An increase in non-performing loans could have an impact on banks’ balance sheets and affect credit conditions.
Is there a real problem with pollsters obtaining a representative sample and with the weighting systems they use ? Many older people who may be more Tory, are less likely to complete an online poll, buy they are more likely to vote. The weighting systems are based on previous experience, but we are now in a much more complicated position, with UKIP apparently being about 12% up on where they were in 2010. Also the Lib Dems are less popular than they were, with atleast a third of their 2010 votes possibly going to Labour.
My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
The Progressive Conservatives went from 156 to 2?! I knew they had been beaten by newer parties and eventually subsumed within them, but had not realised things had been so dramatic. What exciting times those must have been.
It was like 97, only about ten times as worse (for a Tory).
Afternoon all and I hope you have enjoyed the start of 2015 wherever you happen to reside.
The Baxter numbers show what a disproportionate effect a couple of polls with silly Labour leads can do to his and other predictions/projections.
I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15%
David Cameron back into No 10, Nigel Farage huffing and puffing from outside Westminster as he chalks up loss number 7 and Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
They will probably get another dud, but remember, Labour didn't choose Ed. Len did.
Labour’s targeting problem At GE2010 Labour were fighting hard in about 150 seats and lost circa 90. Of the 150 seats fought over, only a tiny few were in Scotland. At this GE 2015, for Labour to win a majority they need to win circa 90 seats AND hold Scotland. That requires Labour to fight hard in 50 seats in Scotland and about 150 in England & Wales. Labour’s resources will then have to spread over 1/3 more seats than in GE2010. By contrast the Conservatives only need to fight hard in 150 and they will have (AFAIK) twice the campaign £ that Labour will have. But there is also the Green problem. Hence why I have been saying that Labour need to focus on holding Scotland and treat GE2015 as unwinnable because of the rise of the SNP and their current poll standing due to EdM.
Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
They will probably get another dud, but remember, Labour didn't choose Ed. Len did.
They chose to have their leadership contest held that way, and for it to be close enough from the other sections for Len and co to swing it, so they also cannot really complain if Ed does not work out that it was not their fault either.
Labour’s targeting problem At GE2010 Labour were fighting hard in about 150 seats and lost circa 90. Of the 150 seats fought over, only a tiny few were in Scotland. At this GE 2015, for Labour to win a majority they need to win circa 90 seats AND hold Scotland. That requires Labour to fight hard in 50 seats in Scotland and about 150 in England & Wales. Labour’s resources will then have to spread over 1/3 more seats than in GE2010. By contrast the Conservatives only need to fight hard in 150 and they will have (AFAIK) twice the campaign £ that Labour will have. But there is also the Green problem. Hence why I have been saying that Labour need to focus on holding Scotland and treat GE2015 as unwinnable because of the rise of the SNP and their current poll standing due to EdM.
Tony Blair says if Labour fight a Left v Right campaign, they will lose.
.... My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
You are forecasting the rare phenomenom of the main opposition gaining vote share in the last 4 months......
Afternoon all and I hope you have enjoyed the start of 2015 wherever you happen to reside.
The Baxter numbers show what a disproportionate effect a couple of polls with silly Labour leads can do to his and other predictions/projections.
I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15%
David Cameron back into No 10, Nigel Farage huffing and puffing from outside Westminster as he chalks up loss number 7 and Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
lol
Easterross are you saying Cameron is down there with the workers ?
.... My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
You are forecasting the rare phenomenom of the main opposition gaining vote share in the last 4 months......
Yes, I think 2015 will be different to what we have seen before. It is different because of having a coalition at the moment. We also have UKIP likely to score 10%+ and a Lib Dem vote that will be mostly tactical.
What is for sure, is that Labour will score a large percentage of the vote than they did in 2010. Some of the polls showing 36% are unlikely to be true, but I can see Labour scoring 33-35%.
Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
They will probably get another dud, but remember, Labour didn't choose Ed. Len did.
Former joint UNITE leader Derek Simpson was the one who won it for Ed.
If the May election is totally inconclusive and the only feasible option is a Labour - Tory coalition or a minority government that has to go to the country again by October, will the Labour & Libdem parties be able to afford another election?
My suspicion is that they can't and the Tories can and this concept will form part of their post election stragegy if needs be.
Maybe the Tories will supply confidence to a Miliband minority government until it starts to obviously run into the sand and then pull the plug?
Labour’s targeting problem At GE2010 Labour were fighting hard in about 150 seats and lost circa 90. Of the 150 seats fought over, only a tiny few were in Scotland. At this GE 2015, for Labour to win a majority they need to win circa 90 seats AND hold Scotland. That requires Labour to fight hard in 50 seats in Scotland and about 150 in England & Wales. Labour’s resources will then have to spread over 1/3 more seats than in GE2010. By contrast the Conservatives only need to fight hard in 150 and they will have (AFAIK) twice the campaign £ that Labour will have. But there is also the Green problem. Hence why I have been saying that Labour need to focus on holding Scotland and treat GE2015 as unwinnable because of the rise of the SNP and their current poll standing due to EdM.
I need to be reasonably discreet about funding, but certainly we're better funded in my marginal than at any previous election that I've fought, and my seat isn't one where there is significant union help - there are just a lot of people chipping in. We'll still be outspent in Jan-Mar, but on the other hand we have kept a reserve for a second election just in case - we think that the benefits of a direct mail blitz now are not worth the risk of being broke afterwards.
Certainly TCP's suggestion that we write off the election is for the birds - I'll be genuinely surprised if we're not the largest party and have bet with Audrey against her very different prediction.
I think the Tories have hit their ceiling, and if there are any debates, Ed M will not be as much of a drag as people think, as his image is so poor those who watch will be surprised he is not absurdly terrible, and the prospect of returning the Tories back to power will see more former Lab UKIP supporters vote tactically than former Con UKIP supporters (who have been there longer, hate Cameron more than former Lab Kippers hate Ed M, and probably care less about letting Lab back in as long as Cameron loses), and the only thing the Tories might be able to campaign on without controversy, the economy, will slow making it a harder sell.
My analysis is that we are in a pre-revolutionary moment.Nevertheless,for betting purposes,if indyref taught me anything it is to have a good basis of evidence so that you can name 3 criteria to back up your hard-earned.Back John Curtice is one.These guys think they may have the answer which is a convoluted computer programme,taking into account a lesser role for UNS and greater application of local effects. There could be a lot of egg on a lot of faces.
.... My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
You are forecasting the rare phenomenom of the main opposition gaining vote share in the last 4 months......
It is,however, very normal for the Opposition to gain in relation to the Government during the formal month long period of the election campaign - ie the four weeks leading up to polling day. This happened in 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - Feb 1974 - Oct 1974 - 1987 - 2001 - 2005 - 2010.
.... My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
You are forecasting the rare phenomenom of the main opposition gaining vote share in the last 4 months......
It is,however, very normal for the Opposition to gain in relation to the Government during the formal month long period of the election campaign - ie the four weeks leading up to polling day. This happened in 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - Feb 1974 - Oct 1974 - 1987 - 2001 - 2005 - 2010.
Not with Ed and Ed all over the TV screens. I think the Tories are near their top but Labour have a long way to fall. Perversely think they will win seats like Broxtowe which are relatively prosperous but lose much safer seats where the local party isnt used to a real fight and defections of core left to Green will let UKIP, Tory and SNP through.
On may the 8th I think it will be the greens fuming about the electoral system not UKIP as they outpoll the Lib dems and dont win even Brighton where tactical voting of tory lib and UKIP supporters for the labour candidate will do for them.
.... My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
You are forecasting the rare phenomenom of the main opposition gaining vote share in the last 4 months......
It is,however, very normal for the Opposition to gain in relation to the Government during the formal month long period of the election campaign - ie the four weeks leading up to polling day. This happened in 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - Feb 1974 - Oct 1974 - 1987 - 2001 - 2005 - 2010.
ICM 2010 Conservative polling April 11th 37 April 7th 38 April 3rd 37 Mar 31st 38
End Dec 2009 and start of Jan 2010 Conservative polling was 40.
............ I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15% .
I agree. This meets the rule that Labour usually get a vote lower at the first fightback GE and that the main opposition party usually slips back.
UKIP won't achieve 15%+, as they have and will have some negative media coverage, which will cast them as racists and old fashioned Tories.
Labour will do well in highly populated city areas around the country, as they have always done. I don't see their vote collapsing in Scotland.
I still think that Labour and Tories will both be in the 33-35% range.
So after more than a year of just such negative media coverage which has seen their vote share increase, why exactly do you think that in the last 5 months before an election it will have the opposite effect?
The anti-UKIP brigade completely blew their campaign against the party and now, whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
It has been a classic example of how not to oppose.
The other important historical election pointer,analysis of local election results,cannot be ignored.It's been a reasonable past predictor but will past performance be any guide in this unique moment of our history? Good chartists-the Ukip head and shoulders indicates bad portents-and contrarians could come in handy. An eclectic mix of pooled judgements.
............ I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15% .
I agree. This meets the rule that Labour usually get a vote lower at the first fightback GE and that the main opposition party usually slips back.
UKIP won't achieve 15%+, as they have and will have some negative media coverage, which will cast them as racists and old fashioned Tories.
Labour will do well in highly populated city areas around the country, as they have always done. I don't see their vote collapsing in Scotland.
I still think that Labour and Tories will both be in the 33-35% range.
So after more than a year of just such negative media coverage which has seen their vote share increase, why exactly do you think that in the last 5 months before an election it will have the opposite effect?
The anti-UKIP brigade completely blew their campaign against the party and now, whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
It has been a classic example of how not to oppose.
I should have thought the strategy against UKIP will be less hyperbole about how awful they are, and more about how a vote for them is a vote for Ed/Dave - not extremely effective anymore given UKIP can point to consistently high polling and by-election wins to say it need not be a wasted vote for them, but about the best strategy that can be tried. The UKIP vote seems firmer now than in 2010, but there's bound to be some really intense Tory haters in particular who will not want to risk letting Cameron in and hold their nose to vote Labour. More than those who will hold their nose and vote Tory at any rate.
............ I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15% .
I agree. This meets the rule that Labour usually get a vote lower at the first fightback GE and that the main opposition party usually slips back.
UKIP won't achieve 15%+, as they have and will have some negative media coverage, which will cast them as racists and old fashioned Tories.
Labour will do well in highly populated city areas around the country, as they have always done. I don't see their vote collapsing in Scotland.
I still think that Labour and Tories will both be in the 33-35% range.
So after more than a year of just such negative media coverage which has seen their vote share increase, why exactly do you think that in the last 5 months before an election it will have the opposite effect?
The anti-UKIP brigade completely blew their campaign against the party and now, whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
It has been a classic example of how not to oppose.
it was a clever tactic of Farage and UKIP to come out with such an endless stream of racist comments that it led them forbidding their members and candidates to use the internet or give interviews. A brilliant example of how to oppose.
NickPalmer thanks for your response. Clearly losing so many seats in Scotland is not what Labour really fear. Sleepwalking to a disaster? As to your resources, yours is a seat Labour must win to have any chance of election victory. However that said, if Labour really were going after 100 sets, they ought to be able to re-direct resources away from yours to the seats in the 90+ range of marginals. Fact that they have not indicates either ineptitude or a strategy built on under 50 gains.
............ I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15% .
I agree. This meets the rule that Labour usually get a vote lower at the first fightback GE and that the main opposition party usually slips back.
UKIP won't achieve 15%+, as they have and will have some negative media coverage, which will cast them as racists and old fashioned Tories.
Labour will do well in highly populated city areas around the country, as they have always done. I don't see their vote collapsing in Scotland.
I still think that Labour and Tories will both be in the 33-35% range.
So after more than a year of just such negative media coverage which has seen their vote share increase, why exactly do you think that in the last 5 months before an election it will have the opposite effect?
The anti-UKIP brigade completely blew their campaign against the party and now, whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
It has been a classic example of how not to oppose.
it was a clever tactic of Farage and UKIP to come out with such an endless stream of racist comments that it led them forbidding their members and candidates to use the internet or give interviews. A brilliant example of how to oppose.
Oh I do love the sour grapes from the Tory party fanatics. I have huge sympathy for many Tory supporters on here who might see their hopes derailed in May. The same goes for Labour and Lib Dem supporters.
Some however like you I positively look forward to seeing crushed as you make no useful contribution to this site beyond giving us someone to scorn and laugh at.
I think 'deluded' is the best way to describe you.
If TSE is about, he was asking about good books on the Crusades. Just looking at my emails for the first time for a week or two I see Amazon is promoting:
The Oxford History of the Crusades
in paperback for a mere £11.99. Looks like a serious bit of modern scholarship presented in a form accessible to the non-specialist. I have put it on my birthday present list* and TSE might want to seriously consider it.
*A list which Herself will, as usual, ignore in favour of things I need (e.g. socks) or books which I don't (e.g. this Christmas she bought me Joseph's Sinclair's memoir of the Napoleonic Wars, "A soldier of the 71st" - a fine story but about a man, a regiment, a war and a period in which I have no interest).
it was a clever tactic of Farage and UKIP to come out with such an endless stream of racist comments that it led them forbidding their members and candidates to use the internet or give interviews. A brilliant example of how to oppose.
As seen on Twitter...
UKIP are not a racist party.
In the same way as you don't get stung by a beehive.
''Britain will lose more wars unless military chiefs stop agreeing to impossible missions after a decade of errors in Iraq and Afghanistan, a new book warns. ... 'High Command', based on interviews with many of those at the helm of the military and the Ministry of Defence from the turn of the century, also identifies fundamental flaws inside the ministry that set the conditions for failure. ... Offering a rare insight into the turmoil within the armed forces during one of the most critical decisions of the two wars — the deployment of British forces to Helmand in 2006when they were still fighting in southern Iraq. ...General Elliot reveals evidence of how senior British officers in Basra were totally opposed to the move. ... The book also reveals how the head of the MoD’s internal think-tank tore apart the way in which Britain’s subsequent mission into Helmand had been put together by military chiefs. 'It was designed like the raid on Dieppe in 1942, which ended in complete failure, when given the right effort it could have been like D-Day in 1944,' Major-General Mungo Melvin told the heads of the three armed services in July 2006, just weeks into the deployment. 'I think we have got Afghanistan profoundly wrong. History will judge you.' ''
Under Coalition & Labour immigration policy, the best Pakistani or Nigerian engineer would have to jump through hoops to live and work in the UK while the worst German or French engineer would be welcomed with no questions asked
I have to take my hat off to the establishment parties for having such discriminatory policies, that could easily be seen as based on race and religion, yet get the public to think that those who oppose the policy are the racists
If a muslim hating white supremacist wanted an immigration policy that kept England white and Christian, he'd cling to EU membership and our current system for as long as he could
Under Coalition & Labour immigration policy, the best Pakistani or Nigerian engineer would have to jump through hoops to live and work in the UK while the worst German or French engineer would be welcomed with no questions asked
If a muslim hating white supremacist wanted an immigration policy that kept England white and Christian, he'd cling to EU membership and our current system for as long as he could
A German engineer may be available but does not have to be employed by anybody if they do not want. Treating Australians and Indians the same hardly smacks as racist. German, American, Japanese and Indian inward investment has transformed our car industry and employ good British engineers and managers. Thick kippers risk all that inward investment such that its quite possible to speculate that with their policies we would have no need and no point to import engineers from anywhere for anything.
Under Coalition & Labour immigration policy, the best Pakistani or Nigerian engineer would have to jump through hoops to live and work in the UK while the worst German or French engineer would be welcomed with no questions asked
If a muslim hating white supremacist wanted an immigration policy that kept England white and Christian, he'd cling to EU membership and our current system for as long as he could
A German engineer may be available but does not have to be employed by anybody if they do not want. Treating Australians and Indians the same hardly smacks as racist. German, American, Japanese and Indian inward investment has transformed our car industry and employ good British engineers and managers. Thick kippers risk all that inward investment such that its quite possible to speculate that with their policies we would have no need and no point to import engineers from anywhere for anything.
We need no lessons from racists like you who see predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians or Africans. Your party's whole immigration policy is inherently racist and it does not surprise me to see bigots like you clinging desperately to the fortress Europe ideal.
whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
Some however like you I positively look forward to seeing crushed as you make no useful contribution to this site beyond giving us someone to scorn and laugh at.
Are you trying to break into comedy?
"No one takes the claims seriously", except the 85% who don't support UKIP? Are they "nobody" in UKIPland?
You look forward to seeing people "crushed"? Is this official UKIP policy for those that dare to call UKIP racist, or - even more brazenly - laugh at them?
If it's not an attempt at comedy, it still makes you funny - in a sad kind of way.
............ I still think it will end up something like Tory 33-35% Labour 25-28% UKIP 15-20% LibDem 12-15% .
I agree. This meets the rule that Labour usually get a vote lower at the first fightback GE and that the main opposition party usually slips back.
UKIP won't achieve 15%+, as they have and will have some negative media coverage, which will cast them as racists and old fashioned Tories.
Labour will do well in highly populated city areas around the country, as they have always done. I don't see their vote collapsing in Scotland.
I still think that Labour and Tories will both be in the 33-35% range.
So after more than a year of just such negative media coverage which has seen their vote share increase, why exactly do you think that in the last 5 months before an election it will have the opposite effect?
The anti-UKIP brigade completely blew their campaign against the party and now, whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
It has been a classic example of how not to oppose.
it was a clever tactic of Farage and UKIP to come out with such an endless stream of racist comments that it led them forbidding their members and candidates to use the internet or give interviews. A brilliant example of how to oppose.
Oh I do love the sour grapes from the Tory party fanatics. I have huge sympathy for many Tory supporters on here who might see their hopes derailed in May. The same goes for Labour and Lib Dem supporters.
Some however like you I positively look forward to seeing crushed as you make no useful contribution to this site beyond giving us someone to scorn and laugh at.
I think 'deluded' is the best way to describe you.
You are sounding like Kevin Keegan. I'm not going to be crushed by anything. Its the nation which will suffer under a Labour govt if people like you get their way. Its the nation that will be denied a referendum on the EU.
Your definition of 'sour grapes', not to mention 'deluded' is a new one on me. But we know that your accusations are merely a smoke screen to hide the truth of what I say. UKIP were being found out to such a degree that its poster boy totally contradicted its leaders defence of crass racism and its executive told its members to shut up - ie hide their ting tong racist tendencies. You do wonder how many times Farage has to apologise before it starts wearing a bit thin. He even had to apologise to Atkinson for apologising for her.
.... My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
You are forecasting the rare phenomenom of the main opposition gaining vote share in the last 4 months......
It is,however, very normal for the Opposition to gain in relation to the Government during the formal month long period of the election campaign - ie the four weeks leading up to polling day. This happened in 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - Feb 1974 - Oct 1974 - 1987 - 2001 - 2005 - 2010.
ICM 2010 Conservative polling April 11th 37 April 7th 38 April 3rd 37 Mar 31st 38
End Dec 2009 and start of Jan 2010 Conservative polling was 40.
That does not contradict my point at all. If you look at all the polls for the first week of April 2010 - with exception of a single ICM poll - they gave the Tories a bigger lead over Labour than the 7.3% outcome on May 6th.
Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
They will probably get another dud, but remember, Labour didn't choose Ed. Len did.
Former joint UNITE leader Derek Simpson was the one who won it for Ed.
As a non-Labourite I think they would be a fool not to pick Mrs Balls if it came to it. She must tick most of the boxes, and is an effective performer. The only two sticking points would seem to be she might have to pick the wrong shadow chancellor for domestic reasons, and Labour dont seem to like picking women for the top job. Arguably she also hails from the wrong side of Hadrians Wall.
whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
Some however like you I positively look forward to seeing crushed as you make no useful contribution to this site beyond giving us someone to scorn and laugh at.
Are you trying to break into comedy?
"No one takes the claims seriously", except the 85% who don't support UKIP? Are they "nobody" in UKIPland?
You look forward to seeing people "crushed"? Is this official UKIP policy for those that dare to call UKIP racist, or - even more brazenly - laugh at them?
If it's not an attempt at comedy, it still makes you funny - in a sad kind of way.
Nope, just my policy to morons like Flightpath who are frankly a waste of oxygen.
And the idea that 85% of the public consider UKIP racist is like the idea that 70% of the public consider the Tories 'nasty'. It shows a basic lack of logic - unsurprising from the Tory fanatics these days.
£40 Billion down the drain just to be defeated by a handful of peasants, just about sums up the state of the country.
Sorry, I thought we won the referendum?
... I'll get my coat
hmmm that is debatable as well, time will tell
Well, unless the votes are revised, I don't think it will change. Whether or not a future referendum is won/lost is another issue
For sure , but you would wonder who actually won way things are up here, looks more and more like it was better than a win if things continue as they are.
Your definition of 'sour grapes', not to mention 'deluded' is a new one on me. But we know that your accusations are merely a smoke screen to hide the truth of what I say. UKIP were being found out to such a degree that its poster boy totally contradicted its leaders defence of crass racism and its executive told its members to shut up - ie hide their ting tong racist tendencies.
A very happy 2015 to all those who comment here and I hope you win lots of money this year. I don't know if I will bet on the election since all seems clouded, but I will continue to follow your discussions with great interest. My very best to you all and thanks to mike S for his continued informative site
Your definition of 'sour grapes', not to mention 'deluded' is a new one on me. But we know that your accusations are merely a smoke screen to hide the truth of what I say. UKIP were being found out to such a degree that its poster boy totally contradicted its leaders defence of crass racism and its executive told its members to shut up - ie hide their ting tong racist tendencies.
And they even forgot to mention good old Bob 'ragheads' 'jungle bunnies' and 'sons of camel drivers' Frost, who is still a Conservative Councillor
0.27% of all Tory councillors. That probably dramatically under-represents the number of racists/sexists in the country. Wonder what the ratio for the other parties is?
Your definition of 'sour grapes', not to mention 'deluded' is a new one on me. But we know that your accusations are merely a smoke screen to hide the truth of what I say. UKIP were being found out to such a degree that its poster boy totally contradicted its leaders defence of crass racism and its executive told its members to shut up - ie hide their ting tong racist tendencies.
And they even forgot to mention good old Bob 'ragheads' 'jungle bunnies' and 'sons of camel drivers' Frost, who is still a Conservative Councillor
Not to mention the two n***** spouting Conservative Councillors who were the subject of yesterdays Mail article, both of whom appear to still be still conservative councillors (over 6 months since the phrase was apparently uttered to a member of the public in one case).
Perhaps I'm a pessimist on Labour seats and an optimist on Tory seats, but I assume a realistic 5.5% swing to Labour outside of Scotland with UKIP making a difference but not that much, for instance it will prevent Labour from gaining some seats like Thurrock or S. Basildon and might get some Labour seats like Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby or another 2-3 Labour seats on a good day and up to 10-15 Tory seats. But the UKIP factor is still marginal in that it increases the Labour-Tory difference in seats by about 10 in number. It's the Tory to Labour swing and the SNP that play a much bigger role.
Under Coalition & Labour immigration policy, the best Pakistani or Nigerian engineer would have to jump through hoops to live and work in the UK while the worst German or French engineer would be welcomed with no questions asked
If a muslim hating white supremacist wanted an immigration policy that kept England white and Christian, he'd cling to EU membership and our current system for as long as he could
A German engineer may be available but does not have to be employed by anybody if they do not want. Treating Australians and Indians the same hardly smacks as racist. German, American, Japanese and Indian inward investment has transformed our car industry and employ good British engineers and managers. Thick kippers risk all that inward investment such that its quite possible to speculate that with their policies we would have no need and no point to import engineers from anywhere for anything.
The current immigration system ensures more white Christians and less non white muslims, and you consider a party whose system would increase the ratio of non white immigrants as racist
Well we could be, but europe was in that stage for 30 years before the Russian revolution. It will take time, probably in the next decade or it might never happen and europe quietly vanishes from the world like Japan did. But if europe is to recover it has to jettison the old political and economic model, if it fails to do so then Japan is it's future.
The seat projections from Baxter are obvious nonsense, but without we shouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.. if the vote percentages are broadly correct what should the seats be?
If UKIP get 15.5% I would expect at least 7-8 seats
If UKIP get 15.5% and Lib Dems get 8.5% I'd be confident of winning my UKIP x4 seats bets, but Old Biddy Baxter thinks it will be a terrible result for me!
Under Coalition & Labour immigration policy, the best Pakistani or Nigerian engineer would have to jump through hoops to live and work in the UK while the worst German or French engineer would be welcomed with no questions asked
If a muslim hating white supremacist wanted an immigration policy that kept England white and Christian, he'd cling to EU membership and our current system for as long as he could
A German engineer may be available but does not have to be employed by anybody if they do not want. Treating Australians and Indians the same hardly smacks as racist. German, American, Japanese and Indian inward investment has transformed our car industry and employ good British engineers and managers. Thick kippers risk all that inward investment such that its quite possible to speculate that with their policies we would have no need and no point to import engineers from anywhere for anything.
Point of order. British transportation exports have fallen from 25% of all Exports in 1998 to 15% in 2012, or in constant numbers they have grown from 43$ billion to 53$ billion. In Machinery&Electrical exports the share has fallen from 60% in 1998 to 21% in 2012, or in constant numbers they have fallen from 106$ billion to 74$ billion.
A nice sentiment, but it clearly ain't going to happen for all on here! Anecdote alert: dinner party last night, and the unifying wish for 2015 around the table was that Ed Miliband be kept well away from the levers of power....
A nice sentiment, but it clearly ain't going to happen for all on here! Anecdote alert: dinner party last night, and the unifying wish for 2015 around the table was that Ed Miliband be kept well away from the levers of power....
Well your particular dinner party might not be the best representative sample of the electorate, I don't think most dinner parties on New Years Eve in the country wasted their time talking about Ed Miliband or politics in general.
A nice sentiment, but it clearly ain't going to happen for all on here! Anecdote alert: dinner party last night, and the unifying wish for 2015 around the table was that Ed Miliband be kept well away from the levers of power....
UKIP seat wins could be anything from about 3 to 50 with a 15% vote share. I think they'll do better than that in terms of vote share though. If they have any sense they'll be going hard at Labour, and the old slumbering beast has little defence. Ed, and Ed with pop-guns on the skirmish line, Hatty with her man-eating flamethrower, and Yvette with her withering look (poor old EdB) in the reserve.
However the beneficiaries of all this UKIP fire may be the LDs. A couple of months ago I was thinking that my big 2015 bet would be low LD seats, but I've pulled the plug on that for the above reason.
In a year's time Cameron, Clegg, Ed, or Farage might be forgotten men. My guess is that one out of the four will have gone (Ed).
Well, 15% vote share for UKIP will win them a lot of seats (25+) if the LibDems also have 15% and the Greens 10% (simply because it means nobody is going to have more than 30% vote share). On the other hand, if UKIP get 15%, the LibDems 5% and the Greens 2%, then UKIP is going to struggle to get more than a handful of seats.
Comments
Interesting question is who will bailout Ukraine? Should be the Americans, will seriously annoy Europe if they leave us to pick up the tab.
A quick google to the earlier question posited to Junior resulted in this link:
http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Business-environment/Eurozone-country
To quote: Hmmm indeed....
My instinct is that when it comes to voting in May 2015, we will see Labour and Tories move closer to 35% of the vote, UKIP will do severe damage to the Tories in some seats and there will be tactical voting against the Tories again. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, but not as much as expected, with Labour winning 300-310 seats overall. As they will be about 40 seats ahead of the Tories, they will be enter into government, with confidence and supply agreements with Lib Dems and SNP.
The Baxter numbers show what a disproportionate effect a couple of polls with silly Labour leads can do to his and other predictions/projections.
I still think it will end up something like
Tory 33-35%
Labour 25-28%
UKIP 15-20%
LibDem 12-15%
David Cameron back into No 10, Nigel Farage huffing and puffing from outside Westminster as he chalks up loss number 7 and Labour poised to pick yet another bad leader from their metropolitan elite who wouldn't recognise the traditional working class if s/he fell over them on a hurried annual inspection of the rotten burgh which elects him/her and promptly gets ignored for the rest of the year.
At GE2010 Labour were fighting hard in about 150 seats and lost circa 90. Of the 150 seats fought over, only a tiny few were in Scotland. At this GE 2015, for Labour to win a majority they need to win circa 90 seats AND hold Scotland. That requires Labour to fight hard in 50 seats in Scotland and about 150 in England & Wales. Labour’s resources will then have to spread over 1/3 more seats than in GE2010. By contrast the Conservatives only need to fight hard in 150 and they will have (AFAIK) twice the campaign £ that Labour will have. But there is also the Green problem. Hence why I have been saying that Labour need to focus on holding Scotland and treat GE2015 as unwinnable because of the rise of the SNP and their current poll standing due to EdM.
How do they fight the Greens? swing left.
How do they fight the SNP? swing left.
Um...
Easterross are you saying Cameron is down there with the workers ?
What is for sure, is that Labour will score a large percentage of the vote than they did in 2010. Some of the polls showing 36% are unlikely to be true, but I can see Labour scoring 33-35%.
Certainly TCP's suggestion that we write off the election is for the birds - I'll be genuinely surprised if we're not the largest party and have bet with Audrey against her very different prediction.
Tory 29-33
Labour 31-35
UKIP 10-15
LD 10-15
I think the Tories have hit their ceiling, and if there are any debates, Ed M will not be as much of a drag as people think, as his image is so poor those who watch will be surprised he is not absurdly terrible, and the prospect of returning the Tories back to power will see more former Lab UKIP supporters vote tactically than former Con UKIP supporters (who have been there longer, hate Cameron more than former Lab Kippers hate Ed M, and probably care less about letting Lab back in as long as Cameron loses), and the only thing the Tories might be able to campaign on without controversy, the economy, will slow making it a harder sell.
There could be a lot of egg on a lot of faces.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/predicting-the-polls/
Labour will do well in highly populated city areas around the country, as they have always done. I don't see their vote collapsing in Scotland.
I still think that Labour and Tories will both be in the 33-35% range.
On may the 8th I think it will be the greens fuming about the electoral system not UKIP as they outpoll the Lib dems and dont win even Brighton where tactical voting of tory lib and UKIP supporters for the labour candidate will do for them.
April 11th 37
April 7th 38
April 3rd 37
Mar 31st 38
End Dec 2009 and start of Jan 2010 Conservative polling was 40.
The anti-UKIP brigade completely blew their campaign against the party and now, whatever they say about them, it just comes over as fear mongering and smear. No one takes the claims seriously any more because so much of it has proved to be false.
It has been a classic example of how not to oppose.
Good chartists-the Ukip head and shoulders indicates bad portents-and contrarians could come in handy.
An eclectic mix of pooled judgements.
Con 33% 280 seats
Lab 32% 290 seats
LDem 15% 38 seats
UKIP 11% 2 seats
Others 9% SNP 17 seats Plaid 3 seats NI 18 seats Speaker 1 seat IKHC 1 seat
My 35,35,10,10 prediction from several months back still looks sound to me. As to how that translates into seats, er, pass!
Some however like you I positively look forward to seeing crushed as you make no useful contribution to this site beyond giving us someone to scorn and laugh at.
I think 'deluded' is the best way to describe you.
If TSE is about, he was asking about good books on the Crusades. Just looking at my emails for the first time for a week or two I see Amazon is promoting:
The Oxford History of the Crusades
in paperback for a mere £11.99. Looks like a serious bit of modern scholarship presented in a form accessible to the non-specialist. I have put it on my birthday present list* and TSE might want to seriously consider it.
*A list which Herself will, as usual, ignore in favour of things I need (e.g. socks) or books which I don't (e.g. this Christmas she bought me Joseph's Sinclair's memoir of the Napoleonic Wars, "A soldier of the 71st" - a fine story but about a man, a regiment, a war and a period in which I have no interest).
UKIP are not a racist party.
In the same way as you don't get stung by a beehive.
The other day I pointed out that the military might not come out of Chilcot very well and this review of a book by Major-General Christopher Elliott confirms it.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/defence/article4311018.ece
''Britain will lose more wars unless military chiefs stop agreeing to impossible missions after a decade of errors in Iraq and Afghanistan, a new book warns.
...
'High Command', based on interviews with many of those at the helm of the military and the Ministry of Defence from the turn of the century, also identifies fundamental flaws inside the ministry that set the conditions for failure.
...
Offering a rare insight into the turmoil within the armed forces during one of the most critical decisions of the two wars — the deployment of British forces to Helmand in 2006when they were still fighting in southern Iraq.
...General Elliot reveals evidence of how senior British officers in Basra were totally opposed to the move.
...
The book also reveals how the head of the MoD’s internal think-tank tore apart the way in which Britain’s subsequent mission into Helmand had been put together by military chiefs.
'It was designed like the raid on Dieppe in 1942, which ended in complete failure, when given the right effort it could have been like D-Day in 1944,' Major-General Mungo Melvin told the heads of the three armed services in July 2006, just weeks into the deployment. 'I think we have got Afghanistan profoundly wrong. History will judge you.' ''
I have to take my hat off to the establishment parties for having such discriminatory policies, that could easily be seen as based on race and religion, yet get the public to think that those who oppose the policy are the racists
If a muslim hating white supremacist wanted an immigration policy that kept England white and Christian, he'd cling to EU membership and our current system for as long as he could
German, American, Japanese and Indian inward investment has transformed our car industry and employ good British engineers and managers. Thick kippers risk all that inward investment such that its quite possible to speculate that with their policies we would have no need and no point to import engineers from anywhere for anything.
http://stopwar.org.uk/news/how-britain-spent-40bn-suffering-humiliating-defeat-in-afghanistan-while-trying-to-impress-the-us#.VKUZtntYIqI.twitter
"No one takes the claims seriously", except the 85% who don't support UKIP? Are they "nobody" in UKIPland?
You look forward to seeing people "crushed"? Is this official UKIP policy for those that dare to call UKIP racist, or - even more brazenly - laugh at them?
If it's not an attempt at comedy, it still makes you funny - in a sad kind of way.
... I'll get my coat
Your definition of 'sour grapes', not to mention 'deluded' is a new one on me. But we know that your accusations are merely a smoke screen to hide the truth of what I say. UKIP were being found out to such a degree that its poster boy totally contradicted its leaders defence of crass racism and its executive told its members to shut up - ie hide their ting tong racist tendencies. You do wonder how many times Farage has to apologise before it starts wearing a bit thin. He even had to apologise to Atkinson for apologising for her.
And the idea that 85% of the public consider UKIP racist is like the idea that 70% of the public consider the Tories 'nasty'. It shows a basic lack of logic - unsurprising from the Tory fanatics these days.
edit to add - nothing like a good bribe! hah
PS; We are getting control of road signs mind you so not all bad
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/proof-camerons-tories-racist-sexist-191792
And they even forgot to mention good old Bob 'ragheads' 'jungle bunnies' and 'sons of camel drivers' Frost, who is still a Conservative Councillor
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2892885/Deputy-mayor-racism-storm-comparing-flood-prevention-n-woodpile-council-meeting.html
LAB 288-308
CON 234-249
SNP 42-52
LD 24-31
UKIP 9-20
GRN 1
But the UKIP factor is still marginal in that it increases the Labour-Tory difference in seats by about 10 in number. It's the Tory to Labour swing and the SNP that play a much bigger role.
About right for Ukip 1-2-3 dutch.
It will take time, probably in the next decade or it might never happen and europe quietly vanishes from the world like Japan did.
But if europe is to recover it has to jettison the old political and economic model, if it fails to do so then Japan is it's future.
If UKIP get 15.5% I would expect at least 7-8 seats
If UKIP get 15.5% and Lib Dems get 8.5% I'd be confident of winning my UKIP x4 seats bets, but Old Biddy Baxter thinks it will be a terrible result for me!
British transportation exports have fallen from 25% of all Exports in 1998 to 15% in 2012, or in constant numbers they have grown from 43$ billion to 53$ billion.
In Machinery&Electrical exports the share has fallen from 60% in 1998 to 21% in 2012, or in constant numbers they have fallen from 106$ billion to 74$ billion.
I can't see a positive EU effect on UK manufacturing.
All export growth since the 90's has been oil and chemical products.
http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods
A nice sentiment, but it clearly ain't going to happen for all on here! Anecdote alert: dinner party last night, and the unifying wish for 2015 around the table was that Ed Miliband be kept well away from the levers of power....
UKIP seat wins could be anything from about 3 to 50 with a 15% vote share. I think they'll do better than that in terms of vote share though. If they have any sense they'll be going hard at Labour, and the old slumbering beast has little defence. Ed, and Ed with pop-guns on the skirmish line, Hatty with her man-eating flamethrower, and Yvette with her withering look (poor old EdB) in the reserve.
However the beneficiaries of all this UKIP fire may be the LDs. A couple of months ago I was thinking that my big 2015 bet would be low LD seats, but I've pulled the plug on that for the above reason.
In a year's time Cameron, Clegg, Ed, or Farage might be forgotten men. My guess is that one out of the four will have gone (Ed).
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