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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the next Tory leader be elected unopposed?
With all the recent weeks discussions about David Cameron’s leadership ending this parliament, the one thing that has crossed my mind is that if David Cameron is replaced as Tory Leader during this parliament, can the party, the coalition and the country cope with a long drawn out leadership contest?
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jun/03/canned-hunting-lions-bred-slaughter
Nah.....the tories love a good family scrap...
Anyway, as all acute observers of the political scene will attest, assuredly there will be a vigorous contest when PM Cameron decides to retire a year after being re-elected for a second time in 2021.
The most amusing thing is that a lot of the incensed CIFers are shouting 'Betrayal!' at Balls for his tentative, grudging and so far minimal acceptance of the laws of arithmetic, and demanding he be replaced by.. Alistair Darling. Well, yes, Darling would certainly be a better choice, but not for the reason the CIFers think. Quite the opposite, in fact; he'd embrace reality more vigorously.
Britain's hopes of a shale gas boom received a major boost on Monday after fracking firm IGas dramatically increased its estimate of the amount of gas trapped within the rocks of north-west England."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10097133/Shale-gas-resources-ten-times-bigger-than-we-thought-says-IGas.html
Logically speaking, if it's illegal to discriminate against someone because of their race, gender or sexuality, it should also be illegal to discriminate against someone based on how attractive or unattractive they are, since a person cannot choose what they look like any more than they can choose their race, gender, etc.
I suspect the reason for the current illogical position is that people are able to feel sympathetic towards, say, a black, female or gay person being treated unfairly in a way they don't towards unattractive people.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8587877.stm
[Cornwall's finest Telegraph geezer.] A standard plate is symmetrical (as far as the human-brain can measure). Most vinyl records were stamped similarly.
The added-value is in the exceptions; a gene-pool that shows adaptability and demonstrates God's gift that is evolution. A broken nose may signify strength whilst a - ahem - skin-parting toward one thigh may show receiptability.
Symmetry does not exist in nature: Only in the minds of fools. Show me a Zebra with a rule-measure and I'll identify to you a cartoon....
Great news about the shale gas reserves. Let's get fracking ... bye bye Blackpool and the polar bears. And let's get rid of the badgers while we're at it. But bring back the Badger, Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10097771/Lord-Dannatt-Gay-marriage-Bill-goes-against-what-Ive-fought-for-as-a-soldier.html
I burst out laughing at the url, but even better was to come in the article:
"Hereditary peer Lord Hylton has hit out at the way the "delightful" word "gay" had been taken over by homosexuals.
The 80-year-old independent crossbench peer made his comments as he spoke out against same-sex marriage.
He also argued that "medical opinion" was against gay marriage."
Lord Dannatt might also reflect on the idea that an unelected peer should be using his status to complain about the abuse of "the democratic process".
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/18-arguments-made-against-gay-marriage-house-lords
The wisest words: " Do I want to vote against this Bill? Yes. Should I? No."
"But it’s equally true that the Tory party still has a problem with easy prejudice, and those that harbour such views invariably find their home amongst the traditionalists. Or, to put it another way, whilst most Tory traditionalists aren’t racist, the vast majority of Tory racists are traditionalists.
The response of the traditionalist wing of the Tory party to this charge is invariably indignation, followed by deflection. “All political parties have a problem with racism,” they claim. And they’re right. Labour has a serious and growing problem with anti-Semitism, as do elements of the Liberal Democrats. And I’ve regularly written about it, and condemned it. But shouting “look over there!” doesn’t help you deal with what’s standing behind you.
I’ve never met Patrick Mercer. But, given the way in which he was happy to share his unacceptable views on race with journalists and lobbyists, I can’t believe he kept them hidden from his colleagues. And yet he was tolerated, and welcome, within the traditionalist fold.
When it was reported that Cameron loyalist Andrew Feldman had described Tory activists as, “swivel-eyed loons” (comments he denies), the Tory Right was fighting to get to the airwaves to denounce him. With Patrick Mercer and his “Jew” comment there has been tumbleweed.
Indeed, those who have commented have tended to try to defend him by pointing to his military service in Northern Ireland. Sorry, it doesn’t work like that. Yes, Mercer’s service should be respected. But tours of Northern Ireland don’t earn you Jewish joke credits..."
Perhaps to a very teeny degree - but how many of us either male or female are fooled by fake breasts or face-lifts et al? Not many. Some may not care what their mate looked like before the *enhancements* - I certainly would if I wanted attractive offspring.
Test your instincts in spotting fake boobs here - http://earthli.com/quizzes/view_quiz.php?id=2 NSFW but appeared in Playboy.
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT, YOU MAY NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES WHATSOEVER SPECULATE ABOUT ANYTHING TO DO WITH NEWS CORP, NEWS INTERNATIONAL OR ANYTHING TO DO WITH ANY POLICE INVESTIGATION INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
http://usvsth3m.com/post/52129842503/all-work-and-no-play-makes-jack-a-dull-boy
What does it mean for a political career when you become a slightly surreal meme?
Holy Hell - I've just been asked which I'd prefer Chris Williamson for Labour or James Gray for the Tories - I'd require roofies just to keep my sanity intact....
Once again the powers that be assume no one will be able to work out who the Tory MP in question is. Just by implying it's a male MP with a wife the number of possibilities are narrowed down quite considerably.
Yes Scotland today urged the No campaign to suspend its plans to send campaign materials - including 'lesson plans' for teachers - to schools.
Chief Executive Blair Jenkins has written to Alistair Darling asking him to await guidance from the Electoral Commission and Education Scotland before proceeding with his campaign's schools initiative.
The move comes after Yes Scotland was contacted by parents and teachers concerned about the No campaign plan.
http://www.yesscotland.net/yes_scotland_urges_no_campaign_to_suspend_lesson_plan_packs_for_teachers
The splurge of MP sex stories seems a bit weird to me - is there about to be some judgement on Leveson or libel or whatever that's prompting the outing or it it coincidence? I gather one is an employment tribunal.
We've had the unknown two from the Mail this Sunday, now this story and of course the Deputy Speaker and Mr Hancock has just resigned the whip too if my RSS feed is correct.
That's quite a haul for less than a week.
I wonder what the SNP will become known for :^ )
So you'd be relaxed about Yes Scotland propaganda being taught in schools by teachers, and would regard that simply as "children being involved in political debate"? Excellent, that's useful to know. When the complaints come in, I'll look forward to you sending a supportive letter from your villa in Lombardia.
telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/10096047/Israeli-women-soldiers-reprimanded-for-posing-in-underwear.html
A father-of-six is facing jail for demolishing his family home with a sledgehammer after falling out with his brother over their inheritance.
Furious Tony McGuire battered the £300,000 semi-detached home into pieces while his neighbours looked on.
McGuire, 49, later posed for pictures in the rubble of the house which is at the centre of an ownership dispute with his brother and sister.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2335687/Father-49-told-faces-prison-sentence-demolishing-family-home-sledgehammer-inheritance-row-brother.html#ixzz2VFrGyZtc
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2146719/Anger-SNP-rewrite-history-New-school-curriculum-downplays-role-British-Empire.html
Hmmm. That's if you believe the pollster that had Labour well in the lead in the 2007 Holyrood election. Are MRUK even members of the British Polling Council?
I wonder what the SNP will become known for :^ )"
National self-determination would be my guess.
Unelected Lord Dannatt says #equalmarriage Bill is "an abuse of the democratic process". Not as much as your seat in that House is, m'Lord.
http://news.sky.com/story/1099172/dad-wears-nazi-uniform-for-child-custody-case
True. Cellulite is not nothing.
When the undecided voters are excluded, support for separation increases to 26 per cent and backing for remaining part of the UK stands at 74 per cent.
In a huge embarrassment to Mr Salmond, this would mean support for independence is lower among the young than adults, about a third of which backs separation. "
I'm surprised that you choose to denigrate Edinburgh University.
The only denigration I'm doing is of your reading and comprehension skills. If you really can't tell the difference between Market Research UK and Edinburgh University, that's something you'll have to resolve for yourself. But I dare say your Lombardia villa is ideal for such reflection.
I'm inclined to agree, but the truth is that the polling evidence at the moment is inconclusive and contradictory.
why is PB so fixated on a Tory leadership crisis? It is the most arcanely geeky of political topics. There is no leadership crisis or challenge or issue whatsoever that has any realistic chance of success or even of transpiring.
Of course there are moronic swivel-eyed backbench Tory MPs who are disgruntled (of which some I appreciate aren't even millionaire solipsistic dickheads). But so what? In a perverse way I prefer that they show their hand rather than labourite rebels who in their May Day Kremlin Red Square march past disappeared way dare not breathe a word of dissent.
Can we speculate when the writ for the by election might be moved?
NO
What I find amusing is imagining the shock you're going to get when you realise that MRUK polls can't be treated as gospel. Jack McConnell was there before you, mate.
By the way, well done for escaping moderation in spite of calling me a member of the Ku Klux Klan. I dare say you deserved the indulgence, even if it's not immediately apparent why.
http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/politics/study-reveals-average-snp-member-is-over-60-and-male-1-2112762
Besides, there are almost certainly ways round it with good lawyers.
I've no problem with the state providing rules for those who die intestate, and death duties are a legitimate tax, but beyond that, why should the state have a say in who gets what?
What is the average age of a Tory activist, Alan? What is the average age of a UUP activist? (Are there any UUP activists left?)
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers.html
MRUK didn't always show pro Labour figures. They had a Labour 4% lead followed by a 4% SNP lead in April 2007. I think their problem was that their figures were too much erratic. Wasn't the Herald accused of not publishing a MRUK poll because it showed a too big SNP lead?
http://iaindale.blogspot.it/2007/04/scottish-media-establishment-hiding-bad.html
I'd rather we had a novelty Poly Filler thread about which lobby hack could lead the Tories or Labour whoever most successfully.
Now that'd be entertaining to see who readers think is actually most plugged into the various leaderships and the members...
Fair enough, but that four-point Labour lead was ludicrous. From memory, virtually every other pollster had the SNP several points ahead at that stage.
The other joke pollster in that campaign was Progressive Scottish Opinion - their figures were bouncing about all over the place.
"have them change horses".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s13dLaTIHSg
Thank you for the erudite and considered response, Avery. I would point out that at no point did I use the term "wages" but the term "income" and an economic expert of your standing will of course recognise the nuance at work there.
If my pay goes up 2% and my fares go up 5% I'm worse off - if my pay goes up 2% and my fares go up 1% I'm better off. The erosion of disposable income is less the activity of declining wages in real terms as it is the ongoing increase in other items of expenditure over and above the ambient inflation rate.
This is consistent with a policy of funding improvements not through capital expenditure or general taxation but through the pockets of those effectively forced to use the product and that's true whether it's transport or water.
One of the great achievements of the Coalition has been the orchestrated attempt through the raising of personal allowances to not only take more low-paid people out of taxation but also, in conjunction with reform of welfare, to make it increasingly attractive for people to work and more attractive for them to be employed.
This has been witnessed by the growth in job creation primarily at the lower earning end of the job market. Of course, there will always be those who need additiuonal help from the benefits system and where the need is legitimate, that has to be recognised.
Where I part company with Osborne is the sense in which Conservative policy is still governed by the perception that reducing the tax burden of the wealthiest is the right thing to do for the whole economy. I'm no fan of trickle-down and don't believe it happens. Targetting tax cuts at the lowest earners is for me the correct approach so we should be aiming at getting the personal allowance threshhold up to £20k by 2020 (a nice ring to it).
We also need a different approach to public expenditure reduction which still seems to be focussed on service provision rather than internal procedures and policies. There is a growing perception in wiser Councils about the need to be more proactive so some are combining senior roles and back-office functions while others are looking to develop a commercial property portfolio from which they might derive a significant rental income at a good yield (pay £20m for a fully-tenanted office block and watch the rental income flood in).
If you want me to sketch out Lib Dem economic policy post 2015, I'd be arguing for the onus to be on tax reductions for the lowest paid in tandem with targetted welfare reform (and here Ed Balls has a point about wealthy pensioners and tv licences/winter fuel payments). Continuing to raise the personal allowance above inflation should be the goal while keeping ALL spending under review (and that has to mean no sacred cows including NHS and the Armed Forces).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10098006/France-risks-being-left-behind-by-periphery-if-it-does-not-reform.html
Quite right, Plato. This is a political betting forum after all.
The day you discover ironic humour and the joy that needling your ego brings re predictable responses will be a sad one < this isn't true but I felt it was important to make this explanatory point for your benefit.
Until then, assume any post about cats is intended to make you look like a charlie if you respond to it. This is an humour warning - I made it several threads ago the last time you attempted to belittle me.
Ignore me and show us that you can - you say my posts are *pointless* - well in that case, don't respond to them and give us all a break.
If so, she got a bite!
Polly's article was a more interesting topic, and I haven't said that often.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Former Lord Chancellor Lord MacKay opposing #equalmarriage, cites procreation. "This is not the institution of marriage,it needs a new name"
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=24157
Candidly, I don't think the blog itself is very interesting, but it has a really interesting map of youth unemployment in Europe (it claims to map the EU27, but it also includes Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Croatia and Turkey). For those that just want to look at the map, it's here:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=5bwso0&s=5
The cross-border continuities are fascinating.
Polly, on the other hand is trying to make people like me feel all warm and happy that we're part of a community!
I wonder if we will see any religious, married couples divorcing as a gesture on the back of the gay marriage bill?
You do know that song isn't about gay love don't you?
Not that I would like it less if it were, I like the "Older" album by George Michael which is all about Anselmo, and lots of Morrissey songs that are about men he fancies, but "Lola" is about a bloke who accidentally kisses a transvestite
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/21/french-historian-kills-himself-notre-dame-gay-marriage
I guess the biggest problem will be locating the brains to blow them out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22765102
But one has to ask whether the First Minister and Yang Guang are somehow related?
He was the source for the "econometrician" quote I fired back at Charles when the latter was questioning the accuracy and purpose of fifty year economic forecasts.
He exhibits very questionable Krugmanite economics however measured. Even worse he suffers by appearing to be Australian.
Some might call it "hostile"
Yes, they both look astonishingly cute in that picture.
Isn't it about a man who kisses a girl he fancies who turns out to be a transvestite? (a bit like 'the crying game, except when the singer finds out Lola's a man, he still fancies her/him?)/
UK MPs reject proposal to set a carbon emissions target for energy industry by 2030.
Oh Dear! The greens will puke and turn grey, while the L/Ds will puke and turn green.
Er, well, I guess this is a site that caters for all tastes. Whatever turns you on.
You said "Lola" by The Kinks.
This song is about a straight man who unwittingly kisses a transvestite, and I pointed this out to you.
You then quoted the lyrics to try and back up your mistaken assertion.
You just did so again when answering an answer about what gay marriage should be called.
You know all of this, don't know why you would pretend not to.