As we are talking about questionnaire design and as I mentioned about DIY surveys earlier, I have come up with a challenge for PBers. What is wrong with these questions and how would you improve them?
1) How would you rate your stay at Hotel X? Poor, Average, Good, Very Good, Excellent 2) What is your favourite type of meat? Lamb, Beef, Pork, Chicken, Turkey 3) How many car journeys did you go on in the last year? 4) How many hours of TV will you watch over Christmas this year?
1: Middle-selection bias. Better to have four rather than five options to force respondent to come off the fence. Also your five selections are not symmetrical, you've got three better than average but only one less than average. I'd go for: Very Bad, Bad, Good, Very Good
2. Dunno, maybe the order is a bit leading?
3. What's a 'car journey'? A trip to the shops or a trip to Scotland? Respondent won't know how many short journeys he'd done over a year. If you're interested in short journeys, you'd be better to ask about the last few days, which he might have a hope of remembering
4. Punter will lie or won't know. Better to ask about specific programmes.
-------
How am I doing? (Very badly, badly, well, very well?)
A good job Mr Sparrow is the FORMER head of ICM. The biggest poll lead for YES was not the famous YouGov of 7th September but the less celebrated ICM poll of the 14th September in the Sunday Telegraph.
There is a great deal of evidence that YES hit the front only to be pulled back by the "Vow" and the various promises made to Scotland. It makes Mr Sparrow musings look just ridiculous while his trite references to the EU and currency just make him look biased.
Mind you my experience of the last few days would tell me that this is probably the place where some people will overlook this crass attempt to rewrite polling history since it seems to suit their political world view!
THIS FROM ICM ON 14TH SEPTEMBER
"The ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll shows the biggest Yes share of the independence referendum campaign, with 54% reporting an intention to vote yes; 46% say no.
The poll is undoubtedly a surprise, but actually does sit within margins of error of ICM’s recent poll where only 49% suggested they would vote yes. Instead of taking this poll outcome as sign that Yes has unstoppable momentum, we should see it as nothing more than an outlier which continues the main theme of recent polls that the referendum is too close to call."
As we are talking about questionnaire design and as I mentioned about DIY surveys earlier, I have come up with a challenge for PBers. What is wrong with these questions and how would you improve them?
1) How would you rate your stay at Hotel X? Poor, Average, Good, Very Good, Excellent 2) What is your favourite type of meat? Lamb, Beef, Pork, Chicken, Turkey 3) How many car journeys did you go on in the last year? 4) How many hours of TV will you watch over Christmas this year?
1: Middle-selection bias. Better to have four rather than five options to force respondent to come off the fence. Also your five selections are not symmetrical, you've got three better than average but only one less than average. I'd go for: Very Bad, Bad, Good, Very Good
2. Dunno, maybe the order is a bit leading?
3. What's a 'car journey'? A trip to the shops or a trip to Scotland? Respondent won't know how many short journeys he'd done over a year. If you're interested in short journeys, you'd be better to ask about the last few days, which he might have a hope of remembering
4. Punter will lie or won't know. Better to ask about specific programmes.
-------
How am I doing? (Very badly, badly, well, very well?)
I think the problem in question 2 is that there is no "other" option Which option does the respondent tick if, for example, his favourite meat is Goose?
Nick Sparrow was the man who learnt the lessons first from that debacle and created the broad weighting structures we have today.
He should have fixed the phone randomisation system so as not to oversample Labour supporters.
If there is an oversampling of Labour supporters its probably due to them being more likely to be available, especially during the day, most people on benefit, or with part time jobs probably tend to vote Labour. Old people are more likely to be Conservative voters, and tend to be at home as well, but old people often dont answer the telephone to unlisted numbers or people they dont know.
Do phone pollsters only work 9-5, then?
Probably not.
But even if pollsters work say, 8am to 10pm, older people, people on benefits, and people with part time jobs will be available through more of those hours, and so more likely to be at home when the call is made.
I think the problem in question 2 is that there is no "other" option Which option does the respondent tick if, for example, his favourite meat is Goose?
Form a consortium of large mainstream websites which require log-ons (banks, shopping, betting sites). Randomly ask customers a VI question which they have to answer (even if "prefer not to answer") to get further on in the log-in process.
Obviously there are selection biases here. Again, it's the least-worst we are looking for.
They should use them instead of captchas when you need to identify someone as human. Have people type their answers in rather than giving them multiple choices. As soon as you type in your answer somebody in the Phillippines employed via Mechanical Turk confirms that your answer actually answers the question (thus satisfying the captcha) and also classifies it for statistical purposes.
The great thing about having all the answers be free-form is that it eliminates a big chunk of bias coming from the options you offer people. You'll have some bias when you classify and summarize them, but anyone will be able to check for that by going back to the original responses and running their own classification on them.
While we're on the subject, who are your three most famous scientists?
I'd go for Newton, Einstein and Bohr ... in that order. But as always they stood on others shoulders, even though Newton didn't really mean it.
Magnus Pike, Heinz Wolf, Brian Cox
Jacob Bronowski, Leonard Euler, Carl Fiedrich Gauss would be my famous three in the Great Scientist Handicap stakes. I accept that 90% of the population will never have heard of the last two but the majority have probably never heard of any of them in anyone's list. Depends how you define fame I suppose.
Off on our Christmas travels now, folks. Car journey ...... ca 75 miles. Does that count.
All the very best to everyone for the festive season, and a better than we expect 2015 to the other LD voters! To the rest, I give you a toast "Confusion to the Bookmakers!"
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
While we're on the subject, who are your three most famous scientists?
I'd go for Newton, Einstein and Bohr ... in that order. But as always they stood on others shoulders, even though Newton didn't really mean it.
Magnus Pike, Heinz Wolf, Brian Cox
Jacob Bronowski, Leonard Euler, Carl Fiedrich Gauss would be my famous three in the Great Scientist Handicap stakes. I accept that 90% of the population will never have heard of the last two but the majority have probably never heard of any of them in anyone's list. Depends how you define fame I suppose.
Stephen Hawking must be the most famous scientist these days.
I would nominate Armstrong, Aldrin and Kraft, or if they are too much engineers for some people, I would continue my space geek theme with: Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Galileo Galilei and Carl Sagan ;-)
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Where do I find the picture, Doc
The thumbnail photo.
BTW it says Xmas rather than Christmas, so nothing new there:
It looks as if I am going to be owing you £20 and a single malt.
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Very interesting article, as one would expect from Nick Sparrow.
The 'self-select' bias problem for online polls is of course very well known, and reputable pollsters such as YouGov will try to correct for it. This is easier if, like YouGov, you start with an enormous panel, set up well before the particular poll you are conducting. So, in general, it doesn't seem to be the case that online polls are systematically more wrong that telephone or face-to-face polls, which (as several posters have pointed out) have their own problems.
All the same, as political punters we should definitely be aware of the possibility of self-select bias, especially in circumstances where for some reason one segment of the respondent base is likely to be particularly fired-up. An example of this was the apparent surge in support for Mitt Romney after he did better than expected in the first TV debate against Obama. As always in political betting, you need to use polls as guides to be interpreted intelligently, not as exact and literal measurements of voting intention. In particular, if phone and online polls start to diverge systematically, ask yourself why - self-select bias might be one possible explanation.
The core of the article is right. Newspapers want ammunition for stories. Online polls are cheap and use overcommitted respondents via a peculiar and narrow methodology. Newspapers want headlines even if the actual data or story does not confirm the headline. In terms of self selection bias we should look very hard at newspaper editors and journalists who have a self serving sense of self importance and justification that their talents do not warrant. As a group they serve us ill.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
While we're on the subject, who are your three most famous scientists?
I'd go for Newton, Einstein and Bohr ... in that order. But as always they stood on others shoulders, even though Newton didn't really mean it.
Magnus Pike, Heinz Wolf, Brian Cox
Jacob Bronowski, Leonard Euler, Carl Fiedrich Gauss would be my famous three in the Great Scientist Handicap stakes. I accept that 90% of the population will never have heard of the last two but the majority have probably never heard of any of them in anyone's list. Depends how you define fame I suppose.
Stephen Hawking must be the most famous scientist these days.
I would nominate Armstrong, Aldrin and Kraft, or if they are too much engineers for some people, I would continue my space geek theme with: Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Galileo Galilei and Carl Sagan ;-)
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Slightly sad that British troops are going back a century later.
UK involvement in the Middle East seems to be the triumph of hope over experience.
A tiny thought before the Christmas hangovers: a political web site which publishes polls daily, that are meat and drink to it's participants, has just published a thread which says that political polls and pollsters suck, especially when they are collected on-line.
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Where do I find the picture, Doc
The thumbnail photo.
BTW it says Xmas rather than Christmas, so nothing new there:
It looks as if I am going to be owing you £20 and a single malt.
Thanks, sorry to have misunderstood you originally.
Your grandfather was in the Mesopotamian campaign, then? That was a fight that has never really had the attention it deserves. I don't suppose he left a campaign diary and pictures?
Re our wager: the race has not yet been run and there are still some clever fellows around, including on this site, who think you'll win. That said I am looking forward to the malt but the £20 goes to the RNLI.
Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Friedrich von Hayek
Economics is a science, right?
You would have 3 economists and not Lord Keynes? Seriously? He wrote the language that all modern economists (and all politicians quantum valeat) speak. He should not be held responsible for what incompetents have done in his name.
One of the greatest Brits of all time, I would say.
Can I just say that having survived Dundee High Street this morning anyone arguing for the wisdom of crowds is going to get pretty short shrift. The number of people who think it is necessary to stand still and stare aimlessly while blocking doors, moving stairs, aisles and anywhere else you want to go suggests to me that eugenics was an underrated science and the laws on carrying machetes need review.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
That article isn't very helpful. If BAME voters are leaving Labour and not going to the Tories then where are they going?
The article only says less BAME voters feel they "identify" with Labour (as distinct from voting for them). To me, that only indicates the fact that most of the public "identify" less with any one political party these days.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
That article isn't very helpful. If BAME voters are leaving Labour and not going to the Tories then where are they going?
That was my thought. If the Conservatives are not picking up the vote from the Indian community in particular then they are really doing something wrong.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Even Richard Nabavi concedes that Hollande's economic policies have been even harsher cuts than Osborne has put through. Not really the "socialism on acid" that British right-wingers like to paint it as.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Even Richard Nabavi concedes that Hollande's economic policies have been even harsher cuts than Osborne has put through. Not really the "socialism on acid" that British right-wingers like to paint it as.
That may be true, but if so the question to be asked is why? What has happened to force such a radical change of tack from the man elected to end "austerity" and who said he had an alternative?
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
That article isn't very helpful. If BAME voters are leaving Labour and not going to the Tories then where are they going?
Mostly staying at home probably, turned off from politics generally. As I have said before I think you might be surprised how many actually vote for Farage, although they will be the shyest of shy kippers in the polls.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
Pre Ukip surge.. The poll that made me believe There was a big market for someone to tap into, and that the old three parties were saying what they wanted people to believe rather than what the country wanted
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK". "
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Nick. I'd agree that the central problem is not so much sampling and weighting, but the attendant issues of the volatility and optimism biases in the panel.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
Playing with YouGov's superb timewasting Profiler ( https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/ ) you get the following numbers of "supporters" for each party:
Plenty of cyber kippers out there posting from white van friendly pubs?
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Where do I find the picture, Doc
The thumbnail photo.
BTW it says Xmas rather than Christmas, so nothing new there:
It looks as if I am going to be owing you £20 and a single malt.
Thanks, sorry to have misunderstood you originally.
Your grandfather was in the Mesopotamian campaign, then? That was a fight that has never really had the attention it deserves. I don't suppose he left a campaign diary and pictures?
Re our wager: the race has not yet been run and there are still some clever fellows around, including on this site, who think you'll win. That said I am looking forward to the malt but the £20 goes to the RNLI.
My Grandfather was an Infantry private who was sent from France (after sme months on the Somme) to Mesopotamia in the winter of 16-17 and spent the rest of the war there, demobbed in March 1919.
I have a contemporaneous cutting from a 1917 Newspaper describing the second battle of Kut, and he underlined bits that he was involved with. I have a number of other bits and pieces about his campaign. I think that the Mesopotamian campaign largely fizzled out by 1918, so he was quite happy to be there. He had done his bit by then.
Fascinating British Election Study data on the left-right scale from 0-10 for the UK. English voters place themselves at 5.2, Scottish voters at 4.4 and Welsh voters at 4.7. Green voters are the most leftwing at 3.1 across the UK, UKIP the most rightwing at 7.8 in England, 8.3 in Scotland and 8.0 in Wales. In Scotland Labour voters at 4.1 are slightly right of SNP voters at 3.9, but in Wales Labour voters at 3.2 are slightly left of Plaid voters at 3.6. LD voters are slightly left at 4.7 in England, but slightly right in Scotland and Wales at 5.3 and 5.0 respectively. Tories in England place themselves at 7.7, Labour voters in England at 3.0
My Grandfather was an Infantry private who was sent from France (after sme months on the Somme) to Mesopotamia in the winter of 16-17 and spent the rest of the war there, demobbed in March 1919.
I have a contemporaneous cutting from a 1917 Newspaper describing the second battle of Kut, and he underlined bits that he was involved with. I have a number of other bits and pieces about his campaign. I think that the Mesopotamian campaign largely fizzled out by 1918, so he was quite happy to be there. He had done his bit by then.
I dare say he was pleased, though the Mesopotamian campaign was no walkover. The British Army (which was substantially Indian) took 92,000 casualties and even in 1918 when there was not a lot of fighting disease was still a major problem (the commanding General died of cholera). Anyway, if you have enough bits and pieces to put together a paper of your grandfathers experience it will be well received in the military history community, if you have enough for a book it will be published.
Perhaps you could arrange with your polling chums for anyone who uses the politically paranoid term LibLabCon to suffer a North Korean-style Denial Of Service?
Also, "turnip".
Some day you may reach the dizzy heights to rate being a "Turnip", it will not be soon however.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
Pre Ukip surge.. The poll that made me believe There was a big market for someone to tap into, and that the old three parties were saying what they wanted people to believe rather than what the country wanted
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK". "
Immigration is only half the story, most immigrants come from countries and cultures far more socially conservative than the UK, Labour used to cater to that demographic, but is now firmly beached in Islington Guardianista land, and bangs on about all sorts of socially liberal ideas which will seem at best odd, if not repellant to a fair chunk of the immigrant communities. Cameron could have been in with a chance before he decided to become another metropolitan liberal. Unfortunately Farage's crew are the only socially conservative option on the menu at the moment....
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Even Richard Nabavi concedes that Hollande's economic policies have been even harsher cuts than Osborne has put through. Not really the "socialism on acid" that British right-wingers like to paint it as.
That may be true, but if so the question to be asked is why? What has happened to force such a radical change of tack from the man elected to end "austerity" and who said he had an alternative?
Because Hollande didn't have the guts to withstand the whining from rightwingers -- this is where a comparison with Miliband IS valid, because on the evidence of the last few years I'm not sure whether he'd have the guts to stand firm under pressure either. But my point is that Hollande doesn't by any means show how "left-wing economic policies wreck economies" when his policies haven't been anything approaching left-wing.
My Grandfather was an Infantry private who was sent from France (after sme months on the Somme) to Mesopotamia in the winter of 16-17 and spent the rest of the war there, demobbed in March 1919.
I have a contemporaneous cutting from a 1917 Newspaper describing the second battle of Kut, and he underlined bits that he was involved with. I have a number of other bits and pieces about his campaign. I think that the Mesopotamian campaign largely fizzled out by 1918, so he was quite happy to be there. He had done his bit by then.
I dare say he was pleased, though the Mesopotamian campaign was no walkover. The British Army (which was substantially Indian) took 92,000 casualties and even in 1918 when there was not a lot of fighting disease was still a major problem (the commanding General died of cholera). Anyway, if you have enough bits and pieces to put together a paper of your grandfathers experience it will be well received in the military history community, if you have enough for a book it will be published.
I can email you the clipping. I have nowhere near enough for a book. Possibly could manage a short article. My Grandfather caught malaria but otherwise came through the Somme and Mesopotamia unhurt and sane.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Many thanks to Nick Sparrow for this thought provoking piece.
Especially - ''Trouble is the use of panellists who have, themselves, sought an opportunity to give their views online involves, at the outset, the abandonment of all the principles of sampling theory. ''
Very interesting article, as one would expect from Nick Sparrow.
The 'self-select' bias problem for online polls is of course very well known, and reputable pollsters such as YouGov will try to correct for it. This is easier if, like YouGov, you start with an enormous panel, set up well before the particular poll you are conducting. So, in general, it doesn't seem to be the case that online polls are systematically more wrong that telephone or face-to-face polls, which (as several posters have pointed out) have their own problems.
All the same, as political punters we should definitely be aware of the possibility of self-select bias, especially in circumstances where for some reason one segment of the respondent base is likely to be particularly fired-up. An example of this was the apparent surge in support for Mitt Romney after he did better than expected in the first TV debate against Obama. As always in political betting, you need to use polls as guides to be interpreted intelligently, not as exact and literal measurements of voting intention. In particular, if phone and online polls start to diverge systematically, ask yourself why - self-select bias might be one possible explanation.
The core of the article is right. Newspapers want ammunition for stories.
Alan Cochrane in his bonkers diaries laments that it is a real shame that polling companies stick up the results on-line as it makes it harder to tweak the results of a poll to fit the story.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Even Richard Nabavi concedes that Hollande's economic policies have been even harsher cuts than Osborne has put through. Not really the "socialism on acid" that British right-wingers like to paint it as.
That may be true, but if so the question to be asked is why? What has happened to force such a radical change of tack from the man elected to end "austerity" and who said he had an alternative?
Because Hollande didn't have the guts to withstand the whining from rightwingers -- this is where a comparison with Miliband IS valid, because on the evidence of the last few years I'm not sure whether he'd have the guts to stand firm under pressure either. But my point is that Hollande doesn't by any means show how "left-wing economic policies wreck economies" when his policies haven't been anything approaching left-wing.
Ironically his problem was only slightly the whining right-wingers, it was mostly the whining left-wingers. The French economy was stagnating seriously and their productivity had fallen off a cliff because of their 35hr working week laws, amongst others. In short the big car factories and other mass employers were shedding jobs like crazy because they couldn't make a product at a price that would sell because of the state of the economy and the price and inflexibility of the French labour market - they were being undercut in productivity by Germany to the tune of about 20%. Thousands of manual labourers being laid off from flagship car plants = plummeting popularity.
The best way of polling would be mass email spamming - ultra-cheap, huge sample even if responses only a tiny percentage, elimination of self-selection and mobile vs-landline issues. A great pity it's illegal.
Wasn't it precisely the weaknesses of that approach that John Gallup set out to prove?
As long as France persists with policies that make it very difficult to lay workers off in a downturn employers will be very reluctant to take them on in the first place. Add in high employment taxes and a dose of other restrictions such as the 35 hour week and voila France has higher unemployment than need be. Sure, if you are employed in a permanent contract you have more rights than say the UK but that doesn't do you any good ( quite the opposite as explained above) if you're looking for work.
And that's before we get to the lunacy of 75% income tax...........
My Grandfather was an Infantry private who was sent from France (after sme months on the Somme) to Mesopotamia in the winter of 16-17 and spent the rest of the war there, demobbed in March 1919.
I have a contemporaneous cutting from a 1917 Newspaper describing the second battle of Kut, and he underlined bits that he was involved with. I have a number of other bits and pieces about his campaign. I think that the Mesopotamian campaign largely fizzled out by 1918, so he was quite happy to be there. He had done his bit by then.
I dare say he was pleased, though the Mesopotamian campaign was no walkover. The British Army (which was substantially Indian) took 92,000 casualties and even in 1918 when there was not a lot of fighting disease was still a major problem (the commanding General died of cholera). Anyway, if you have enough bits and pieces to put together a paper of your grandfathers experience it will be well received in the military history community, if you have enough for a book it will be published.
I can email you the clipping. I have nowhere near enough for a book. Possibly could manage a short article. My Grandfather caught malaria but otherwise came through the Somme and Mesopotamia unhurt and sane.
I'd be very happy to receive a copy of the clipping and any other information you have, service number etc.. In particular a note of his Regiment and Battalion number would be very useful as with that I can look up his unit's war diaries, at least I'll be able to once the evenings get lighter and I can again get up the Archives regularly
Fascinating British Election Study data on the left-right scale from 0-10 for the UK. English voters place themselves at 5.2, Scottish voters at 4.4 and Welsh voters at 4.7. Green voters are the most leftwing at 3.1 across the UK, UKIP the most rightwing at 7.8 in England, 8.3 in Scotland and 8.0 in Wales. In Scotland Labour voters at 4.1 are slightly right of SNP voters at 3.9, but in Wales Labour voters at 3.2 are slightly left of Plaid voters at 3.6. LD voters are slightly left at 4.7 in England, but slightly right in Scotland and Wales at 5.3 and 5.0 respectively. Tories in England place themselves at 7.7, Labour voters in England at 3.0
I dare say he was pleased, though the Mesopotamian campaign was no walkover. The British Army (which was substantially Indian) took 92,000 casualties and even in 1918 when there was not a lot of fighting disease was still a major problem (the commanding General died of cholera). Anyway, if you have enough bits and pieces to put together a paper of your grandfathers experience it will be well received in the military history community, if you have enough for a book it will be published.
I can email you the clipping. I have nowhere near enough for a book. Possibly could manage a short article. My Grandfather caught malaria but otherwise came through the Somme and Mesopotamia unhurt and sane.
My (English) great-grandfather, a rear-admiral, saw service in the Crimea and earlier in fighting the slave trade, which was apparently still a significant naval issue in the 19th century. He wrote an autobiography and also left a selection of rather beautful water-colours with pictures from his voyages. - appoarently he used to sit on the quarter-deck at quiet moments doing them. I have a long-standing project to bring the two (buried in different packing cases somewhere) together and perhaps have a publishable project.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
That article isn't very helpful. If BAME voters are leaving Labour and not going to the Tories then where are they going?
The article only says less BAME voters feel they "identify" with Labour (as distinct from voting for them). To me, that only indicates the fact that most of the public "identify" less with any one political party these days.
I think that's right. In my suburban seat, ethnicity is not a good predictor of voting intention, and lots of people from ethnic minorities say "Oh, you're all the same" just like their white neighbours.
Anyway, I'm off. May you all have a happy Christmas and at least one poll in 2015 that really delights you...
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
Pre Ukip surge.. The poll that made me believe There was a big market for someone to tap into, and that the old three parties were saying what they wanted people to believe rather than what the country wanted
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK". "
Can I just say that having survived Dundee High Street this morning anyone arguing for the wisdom of crowds is going to get pretty short shrift. The number of people who think it is necessary to stand still and stare aimlessly while blocking doors, moving stairs, aisles and anywhere else you want to go suggests to me that eugenics was an underrated science and the laws on carrying machetes need review.
But I am chilled now. Many Christmas everyone.
It's always fascinated me the natural desire to stop right at the top of escalators / outside doors and block the way for everyone else. Presumably related to the need to figure out direction of travel, but a serious negative externality!
ICM could be right, could be wrong. It's all about methodology , and their methodology is based on a correct reallocation of D/K by past vote. If they get it wrong and today's D/K decide to vote differently in the future then ICM will be wrong.
Just in case, a polling average would be more accurate than ICM at this moment.
My Grandfather was an Infantry private who was sent from France (after sme months on the Somme) to Mesopotamia in the winter of 16-17 and spent the rest of the war there, demobbed in March 1919.
I have a contemporaneous cutting from a 1917 Newspaper describing the second battle of Kut, and he underlined bits that he was involved with. I have a number of other bits and pieces about his campaign. I think that the Mesopotamian campaign largely fizzled out by 1918, so he was quite happy to be there. He had done his bit by then.
I dare say he was pleased, though the Mesopotamian campaign was no walkover. The British Army (which was substantially Indian) took 92,000 casualties and even in 1918 when there was not a lot of fighting disease was still a major problem (the commanding General died of cholera). Anyway, if you have enough bits and pieces to put together a paper of your grandfathers experience it will be well received in the military history community, if you have enough for a book it will be published.
I dare say he was pleased, though the Mesopotamian campaign was no walkover. The British Army (which was substantially Indian) took 92,000 casualties and even in 1918 when there was not a lot of fighting disease was still a major problem (the commanding General died of cholera). Anyway, if you have enough bits and pieces to put together a paper of your grandfathers experience it will be well received in the military history community, if you have enough for a book it will be published.
I can email you the clipping. I have nowhere near enough for a book. Possibly could manage a short article. My Grandfather caught malaria but otherwise came through the Somme and Mesopotamia unhurt and sane.
My (English) great-grandfather, a rear-admiral, saw service in the Crimea and earlier in fighting the slave trade, which was apparently still a significant naval issue in the 19th century. He wrote an autobiography and also left a selection of rather beautful water-colours with pictures from his voyages. - appoarently he used to sit on the quarter-deck at quiet moments doing them. I have a long-standing project to bring the two (buried in different packing cases somewhere) together and perhaps have a publishable project.
God grief, Nick, leaving such treasures in packing cases is criminal.
Fascinating article - tho not sure what any solution might be.
Just enjoyed Paddington - very well made and huge fun - and now Kippers will have to moan about the ConLabLibDemPaddington conspiracy against them......
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
Pre Ukip surge.. The poll that made me believe There was a big market for someone to tap into, and that the old three parties were saying what they wanted people to believe rather than what the country wanted
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK". "
Fascinating British Election Study data on the left-right scale from 0-10 for the UK. English voters place themselves at 5.2, Scottish voters at 4.4 and Welsh voters at 4.7. Green voters are the most leftwing at 3.1 across the UK, UKIP the most rightwing at 7.8 in England, 8.3 in Scotland and 8.0 in Wales. In Scotland Labour voters at 4.1 are slightly right of SNP voters at 3.9, but in Wales Labour voters at 3.2 are slightly left of Plaid voters at 3.6. LD voters are slightly left at 4.7 in England, but slightly right in Scotland and Wales at 5.3 and 5.0 respectively. Tories in England place themselves at 7.7, Labour voters in England at 3.0
But there are very few people in the middle, most people are extremists of one kind or another and they cancel each other out, for instance in the BES 50% of people want the government to redistribute incomes while 20% disagree, and 2/3rds agree that there is one law for the rich and another for the poor compared with just 13% who disagree.
On economic issues most people are radical left wingers, on other issues they are radical right wingers but they share a common anti-establishment trait.
As we are talking about questionnaire design and as I mentioned about DIY surveys earlier, I have come up with a challenge for PBers. What is wrong with these questions and how would you improve them?
1) How would you rate your stay at Hotel X? Poor, Average, Good, Very Good, Excellent 2) What is your favourite type of meat? Lamb, Beef, Pork, Chicken, Turkey 3) How many car journeys did you go on in the last year? 4) How many hours of TV will you watch over Christmas this year?
I was hoping for a few more takers.
1) As mentioned the scale should be balanced e.g. very poor, poor, average, good, very good 2) As mentioned what about veggies or people who like another meat such as duck. Also what about people who don't have a favourite (don't know option) 3) Asking people to collate a year of journeys is too hard. Better to ask about an average month. Does this include journeys as a passenger as well as a driver? Does a trip to the supermarket and back count as 1 journey or 2? 4) Does Christmas refer to just Christmas day or the whole period? Does TV just refer to live viewing of a physical television? What about watching on the internet, catch up TV, box sets etc?
The point I was hoping to make is if you don't give people enough options you force them to pick something and if you don't define your questions properly you will get a wide range of answers if respondents interpret them differently.
Pollsters sometimes horrendously conflate two ideas within the same question, or state as a fact a political opinion (such as "How much damage do you think the drastic Conservative cuts are causing? Lots, Very Lots, Oh My God!, They Eat Babies").
have a long-standing project to bring the two (buried in different packing cases somewhere) together and perhaps have a publishable project.
In the mutually beneficial interests of a potentially fascinating porject and the wider good of the country I hope you are able to devote plenty of time to this after May next year!
While we're on the subject, who are your three most famous scientists?
I'd go for Newton, Einstein and Bohr ... in that order. But as always they stood on others shoulders, even though Newton didn't really mean it.
Magnus Pike, Heinz Wolf, Brian Cox
Jacob Bronowski, Leonard Euler, Carl Fiedrich Gauss would be my famous three in the Great Scientist Handicap stakes. I accept that 90% of the population will never have heard of the last two but the majority have probably never heard of any of them in anyone's list. Depends how you define fame I suppose.
Stephen Hawking must be the most famous scientist these days.
I would nominate Armstrong, Aldrin and Kraft, or if they are too much engineers for some people, I would continue my space geek theme with: Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Galileo Galilei and Carl Sagan ;-)
One quick post but of real significant interest my apologies if already posted......
Daily Telegraph
"Labour have seen a collapse in their crucial ethnic minority vote since 2010 in a blow for Ed Miliband with three quarters of Indian voters abandoning the party. Influential pollsters say that Labour are mistaken in their belief they are "sitting pretty" with the ethnic minority vote and Indian, Pakistani and African voters are turning away from the party in huge numbers."
The actual drop in support between 2010 to now as polled is humongous and can only be catastrophic for Labour and Milliband.
Mr. Moses, that seems somewhat surprising. To whom are the ethnic minorities turning?
Ok was not really posting till after the big day but....this polling seems an exception.
Dr Maria Sobolewska, an expert from Manchester University and part of the team conducting the Ethnic Minority British Election Study, told a conference this month.... "Looking at the 2014 figures I am hoping that all of you from the Labour party are shifting uncomfortably in your seats. This is a disaster. "The percentage of people who identify with the Labour party is falling very fast."
So basically as I have always said "Anyone..... just absolutely anyone but Labour"
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
Its Christmas Day here now, actually almost an hour into it. I have just completed a rather large Nochebuena and a couple of good bottle of white, so with an uncommon generosity of spirit (enjoy it while you can) may I wish everyone a very Happy Christmas. Now to try and get to sleep with a full stomach!
My (English) great-grandfather, a rear-admiral, saw service in the Crimea and earlier in fighting the slave trade, which was apparently still a significant naval issue in the 19th century. He wrote an autobiography and also left a selection of rather beautiful water-colours with pictures from his voyages. - apparently he used to sit on the quarter-deck at quiet moments doing them. I have a long-standing project to bring the two (buried in different packing cases somewhere) together and perhaps have a publishable project.
Something I picked up many years ago, (not, I may add from personal experience;^) was that naval midshipmen back to the Napoleonic Wars were encouraged to learn to sketch and paint in watercolours so that they could describe land, shore batteries and ports access and facilities etc., not as spies but as guides and enhancements to the maps then in use.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
So within a matter of months Thatcher and Thatcher's Govt alone created that inflation? Pull the other one. Inflation was let loose by Labour and its trade unions. The Thatcher administration had to govern with the consequences. April 1979 inflation was 10.1% and rising, it declined rapidly after 1980 to reach less than 4% in 1983.
My (English) great-grandfather, a rear-admiral, saw service in the Crimea and earlier in fighting the slave trade, which was apparently still a significant naval issue in the 19th century. He wrote an autobiography and also left a selection of rather beautiful water-colours with pictures from his voyages. - apparently he used to sit on the quarter-deck at quiet moments doing them. I have a long-standing project to bring the two (buried in different packing cases somewhere) together and perhaps have a publishable project.
Something I picked up many years ago, (not, I may add from personal experience;^) was that naval midshipmen back to the Napoleonic Wars were encouraged to learn to sketch and paint in watercolours so that they could describe land, shore batteries and ports access and facilities etc., not as spies but as guides and enhancements to the maps then in use.
Did not Army officer cadets too - at least these who went to the Engineers, and I think perhaps also the Artillery - get taught similar skills?
[Edit: soldiers and all that, I know, but with partly the same aim - of accurate recording of topography for practical purposes.]
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
So within a matter of months Thatcher and Thatcher's Govt alone created that inflation? Pull the other one. Inflation was let loose by Labour and its trade unions. The Thatcher administration had to govern with the consequences. April 1979 inflation was 10.1% and rising, it declined rapidly after 1980 to reach less than 4% in 1983.
Actually -- and perhaps ironically -- Mrs Thatcher and her monetarist advisers blamed that inflation not on Labour but on the Barber Boom under the previous Conservative government led by Ted Heath.
The biggest failure in UK polling history was the 1992 general election.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there were any online pollsters in operation at that time.
In which election, I predicted the Tory seats to within two.
Sadly, I wasn't betting back then. Or I'd be writing from my own Caribbean island.....
For what it's worth, 2015 is looking a lot like 1992 to me. Underwhelming current Tory PM beats unelectable Labour candidate for PM.
I predicted a Conservative majority of 20 in 1992, but would have expected a closer vote total.
John Major was highly regarded by millions in 1992, he was self made suburban everyman personified and was what the Conservatives needed to establish a 'understands people like me' meme.
Now Cameron has some attributes but he certainly doesn't fit the 'understands people like me' with swing voters in marginal constituencies.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
I see EdM's idiot chum Hollande has outdone himself and once again achieved record breaking unemployment in France. Boringly predictable. Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Yes boringly predictable , were you posting similar comments back in the 1980's when every month the Thatcher government was achieving record unemployment figures ?
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%.
So within a matter of months Thatcher and Thatcher's Govt alone created that inflation? Pull the other one. Inflation was let loose by Labour and its trade unions. The Thatcher administration had to govern with the consequences. April 1979 inflation was 10.1% and rising, it declined rapidly after 1980 to reach less than 4% in 1983.
Inflation was boosted significantly by Geoffrey Howe's first Budget in June 1979 when VAT was raised from 8% to 15%. It was hardly surprising that this - together with Government measures which led to a sharp rise in utility prices - had a damaging knock-on effect on wage demands. As for Labour having let loose inflation, it is perhaps worth recalling that the RPI inflation inherited from the Heath Government in March 1974 was a good higher than that passed on to Thatcher in May 1979. Inflation did actually fall over the course of the 1974 - 1979 Government.
Upon which subject we will doubtless be treated to 'good news for the economy as people flock to the shops' news reports from Boxing Day onwards.
Meanwhile the UK's current account deficit has been more than £98bn during the last four quarters. Larry Elliott in the Guardian and the BBC's Robert Peston have written good articles on this issue.
By comparison the pointless waste of money quango, the OBN, predicted that the UK's current account would be near zero now.
The biggest failure in UK polling history was the 1992 general election.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there were any online pollsters in operation at that time.
In which election, I predicted the Tory seats to within two.
Sadly, I wasn't betting back then. Or I'd be writing from my own Caribbean island.....
For what it's worth, 2015 is looking a lot like 1992 to me. Underwhelming current Tory PM beats unelectable Labour candidate for PM.
I predicted a Conservative majority of 20 in 1992, but would have expected a closer vote total.
John Major was highly regarded by millions in 1992, he was self made suburban everyman personified and was what the Conservatives needed to establish a 'understands people like me' meme.
Now Cameron has some attributes but he certainly doesn't fit the 'understands people like me' with swing voters in marginal constituencies.
It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is. - Said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
The worry for labour is that the BME vote stays at home. It's not as if the BME constituency votes for anyone else? It's either Labour or nothing...
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) 24/12/2014 13:36 Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
LOL.
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
The worry for labour is that the BME vote stays at home. It's not as if the BME constituency votes for anyone else? It's either Labour or nothing...
Comments
2. Dunno, maybe the order is a bit leading?
3. What's a 'car journey'? A trip to the shops or a trip to Scotland? Respondent won't know how many short journeys he'd done over a year. If you're interested in short journeys, you'd be better to ask about the last few days, which he might have a hope of remembering
4. Punter will lie or won't know. Better to ask about specific programmes.
-------
How am I doing? (Very badly, badly, well, very well?)
There is a great deal of evidence that YES hit the front only to be pulled back by the "Vow" and the various promises made to Scotland. It makes Mr Sparrow musings look just ridiculous while his trite references to the EU and currency just make him look biased.
Mind you my experience of the last few days would tell me that this is probably the place where some people will overlook this crass attempt to rewrite polling history since it seems to suit their political world view!
THIS FROM ICM ON 14TH SEPTEMBER
"The ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll shows the biggest Yes share of the independence referendum campaign, with 54% reporting an intention to vote yes; 46% say no.
The poll is undoubtedly a surprise, but actually does sit within margins of error of ICM’s recent poll where only 49% suggested they would vote yes. Instead of taking this poll outcome as sign that Yes has unstoppable momentum, we should see it as nothing more than an outlier which continues the main theme of recent polls that the referendum is too close to call."
But even if pollsters work say, 8am to 10pm, older people, people on benefits, and people with part time jobs will be available through more of those hours, and so more likely to be at home when the call is made.
The great thing about having all the answers be free-form is that it eliminates a big chunk of bias coming from the options you offer people. You'll have some bias when you classify and summarize them, but anyone will be able to check for that by going back to the original responses and running their own classification on them.
All the very best to everyone for the festive season, and a better than we expect 2015 to the other LD voters! To the rest, I give you a toast "Confusion to the Bookmakers!"
"were the worst pollster for understating the Kippers and over-estimating both Lab and Con."
Understating and over-estimating are the key terms.
That was the point that was made, and it is accurate.
ICM uniquely under-estimated UKIP, and most over-estimated Labour, whilst uniquely over-estimating the Tories.
When considering their 'house' figures, their individual approach and their level of preparedness for post 2010 that should be borne in mind.
I posted the below a month ago, so the numbers may be a little out of date. It goes to show that either (a) UKIP [supporters] have made an effort to 'pack' YouGov, hence all the downweighting in their samples or (b) UKIP/Green supporters are registering precisely because they are more politically interested. There's nothing like the zeal of the converted, as plenty of pb threads show :-)
Merry Xmas one and all.
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Have a safe journey.
Darwin? Stood on the shoulders of many but a great scientist. No room for Feynman either.
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Where do I find the picture, Doc
I would nominate Armstrong, Aldrin and Kraft, or if they are too much engineers for some people, I would continue my space geek theme with: Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Galileo Galilei and Carl Sagan ;-)
The thumbnail photo.
BTW it says Xmas rather than Christmas, so nothing new there:
It looks as if I am going to be owing you £20 and a single malt.
PB military history buffs may be interested in my current picture. It was the Army Christmas card that my Grandfather sent my Grandmother at Christmas 1918, when he knew the war was over and he was coming home.
Economics is a science, right?
In terms of self selection bias we should look very hard at newspaper editors and journalists who have a self serving sense of self importance and justification that their talents do not warrant. As a group they serve us ill.
Merry Christmas. "God bless Us, Every One!"
Boringly predictable.
Let's hope the UK avoids a Labour government and a similar disaster in 2015.
Slightly sad that British troops are going back a century later.
UK involvement in the Middle East seems to be the triumph of hope over experience.
A tiny thought before the Christmas hangovers: a political web site which publishes polls daily, that are meat and drink to it's participants, has just published a thread which says that political polls and pollsters suck, especially when they are collected on-line.
Have a very Merry Christmas everyone.
BTW it says Xmas rather than Christmas, so nothing new there:
It looks as if I am going to be owing you £20 and a single malt.
Thanks, sorry to have misunderstood you originally.
Your grandfather was in the Mesopotamian campaign, then? That was a fight that has never really had the attention it deserves. I don't suppose he left a campaign diary and pictures?
Re our wager: the race has not yet been run and there are still some clever fellows around, including on this site, who think you'll win. That said I am looking forward to the malt but the £20 goes to the RNLI.
One of the greatest Brits of all time, I would say.
But I am chilled now. Many Christmas everyone.
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
24/12/2014 13:36
Labour's crucial ethnic minority vote set to collapse tgr.ph/1CIMnqY
The really funny bit will be when it sinks in with Labour that the main beef a lot of these voters have with them is that they are not tough enough on immigration.
Pre Ukip surge.. The poll that made me believe There was a big market for someone to tap into, and that the old three parties were saying what they wanted people to believe rather than what the country wanted
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK". "
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
Your grandfather was in the Mesopotamian campaign, then? That was a fight that has never really had the attention it deserves. I don't suppose he left a campaign diary and pictures?
Re our wager: the race has not yet been run and there are still some clever fellows around, including on this site, who think you'll win. That said I am looking forward to the malt but the £20 goes to the RNLI.
My Grandfather was an Infantry private who was sent from France (after sme months on the Somme) to Mesopotamia in the winter of 16-17 and spent the rest of the war there, demobbed in March 1919.
I have a contemporaneous cutting from a 1917 Newspaper describing the second battle of Kut, and he underlined bits that he was involved with. I have a number of other bits and pieces about his campaign. I think that the Mesopotamian campaign largely fizzled out by 1918, so he was quite happy to be there. He had done his bit by then.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/trading-places-left-right-placement-in-scotland-by-professor-phil-cowley/#.VJkw2F4iA
http://www.economist.com/node/21563303?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e
It's really not hard.
As long as France persists with policies that make it very difficult to lay workers off in a downturn employers will be very reluctant to take them on in the first place. Add in high employment taxes and a dose of other restrictions such as the 35 hour week and voila France has higher unemployment than need be. Sure, if you are employed in a permanent contract you have more rights than say the UK but that doesn't do you any good ( quite the opposite as explained above) if you're looking for work.
And that's before we get to the lunacy of 75% income tax...........
It would be nice to see the tables for more detail.
Has Mr. Palmer been moonlighting for the ONS?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30595814
Anyway, I'm off. May you all have a happy Christmas and at least one poll in 2015 that really delights you...
It's all about methodology , and their methodology is based on a correct reallocation of D/K by past vote.
If they get it wrong and today's D/K decide to vote differently in the future then ICM will be wrong.
Just in case, a polling average would be more accurate than ICM at this moment.
Just enjoyed Paddington - very well made and huge fun - and now Kippers will have to moan about the ConLabLibDemPaddington conspiracy against them......
They didn't enjoy it much.
On economic issues most people are radical left wingers, on other issues they are radical right wingers but they share a common anti-establishment trait.
1) As mentioned the scale should be balanced e.g. very poor, poor, average, good, very good
2) As mentioned what about veggies or people who like another meat such as duck. Also what about people who don't have a favourite (don't know option)
3) Asking people to collate a year of journeys is too hard. Better to ask about an average month. Does this include journeys as a passenger as well as a driver? Does a trip to the supermarket and back count as 1 journey or 2?
4) Does Christmas refer to just Christmas day or the whole period? Does TV just refer to live viewing of a physical television? What about watching on the internet, catch up TV, box sets etc?
The point I was hoping to make is if you don't give people enough options you force them to pick something and if you don't define your questions properly you will get a wide range of answers if respondents interpret them differently.
Pollsters sometimes horrendously conflate two ideas within the same question, or state as a fact a political opinion (such as "How much damage do you think the drastic Conservative cuts are causing? Lots, Very Lots, Oh My God!, They Eat Babies").
Daily Telegraph
"Labour have seen a collapse in their crucial ethnic minority vote since 2010 in a blow for Ed Miliband with three quarters of Indian voters abandoning the party.
Influential pollsters say that Labour are mistaken in their belief they are "sitting pretty" with the ethnic minority vote and Indian, Pakistani and African voters are turning away from the party in huge numbers."
The actual drop in support between 2010 to now as polled is humongous and can only be catastrophic for Labour and Milliband.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11294984/Labours-crucial-ethnic-minority-vote-set-to-collapse.html#disqus_thread
Sadly, I wasn't betting back then. Or I'd be writing from my own Caribbean island.....
For what it's worth, 2015 is looking a lot like 1992 to me. Underwhelming current Tory PM beats unelectable Labour candidate for PM.
Dr Maria Sobolewska, an expert from Manchester University and part of the team conducting the Ethnic Minority British Election Study, told a conference this month....
"Looking at the 2014 figures I am hoping that all of you from the Labour party are shifting uncomfortably in your seats. This is a disaster.
"The percentage of people who identify with the Labour party is falling very fast."
So basically as I have always said "Anyone..... just absolutely anyone but Labour"
Have a great Christmas all.
http://www.whatsthecost.com/historic.cpi.aspx
Merry Christmas, Moses.
I'll get my hat.. Happy Christmas.
April 1979 inflation was 10.1% and rising, it declined rapidly after 1980 to reach less than 4% in 1983.
John Major was highly regarded by millions in 1992, he was self made suburban everyman personified and was what the Conservatives needed to establish a 'understands people like me' meme.
Now Cameron has some attributes but he certainly doesn't fit the 'understands people like me' with swing voters in marginal constituencies.
''80's'' That would be post 1979, after Labour unleashed rampant inflation and once again wrecked the economy then...
Thatcher inherited RPI inflation of just under 10%. A year later inflation had more than doubled to 22%. So within a matter of months Thatcher and Thatcher's Govt alone created that inflation? Pull the other one. Inflation was let loose by Labour and its trade unions. The Thatcher administration had to govern with the consequences.
April 1979 inflation was 10.1% and rising, it declined rapidly after 1980 to reach less than 4% in 1983.
Inflation was boosted significantly by Geoffrey Howe's first Budget in June 1979 when VAT was raised from 8% to 15%. It was hardly surprising that this - together with Government measures which led to a sharp rise in utility prices - had a damaging knock-on effect on wage demands.
As for Labour having let loose inflation, it is perhaps worth recalling that the RPI inflation inherited from the Heath Government in March 1974 was a good higher than that passed on to Thatcher in May 1979. Inflation did actually fall over the course of the 1974 - 1979 Government.
Upon which subject we will doubtless be treated to 'good news for the economy as people flock to the shops' news reports from Boxing Day onwards.
Meanwhile the UK's current account deficit has been more than £98bn during the last four quarters. Larry Elliott in the Guardian and the BBC's Robert Peston have written good articles on this issue.
By comparison the pointless waste of money quango, the OBN, predicted that the UK's current account would be near zero now.
- Said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Margaret_Thatcher
An appropriate acronym given its lickspittle willingness to make its economic predictions fit the government's requirements.
Even though it was a massive spin on a fairly dull statistic