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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Blow for Jim Murphy as first Scottish poll following his el

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  • New thread is up.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    SeanT said:

    BenM said:

    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.

    Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.

    Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.

    She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.

    One of the great failures of the Right has been its failure to own the narrative
    HoHoHo

    Because the Right doesn't own The Mail, Sun, Times, Telegraph, Express etc etc etc?
    HaHaHa - I agree with you. Given that the right dominates the press they SHOULD have been about to get the facts across, and the narrative, crushing all opposition and imposing the truth.

    However the Left has been clever (perhaps unwittingly) - mildly aided by the BBC it has got a different narrative out there, by using leftwing comedians, satirists, etc, and also by the sheer force of repetition.

    Of course we shouldn't exaggerate: the Left has not been overly successful. Polls of Brits show that Thatcher is rated, by a distance, the greatest prime minister of the last 50 years:


    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2735/thatcher_s_the_best_new_poll_names_ex_tory_leader_as_greatest_prime_minister



    However enough cretins like you HAVE bought this narrative to make it somewhat problematic for the Tories. The lies need to be stamped out and the truth drilled home. Thatcher was a miracle worker, and the greatest British politician of her century.
    Thatch was such a great boon to a grateful nation that the Party she fronted can't get itself elected to power!

    And every time the Tories try to parade Thatcherite qualities they bomb in the polls. Osborne's Autumn Statement just another example.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.

    Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.

    Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.

    She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.

    One of the great failures of the Right has been its failure to own the narrative the way the Right owns the facts. The Right has been correct on almost every issue since 1980, yet the Left has managed to implant some fatuous, mendacious version of events in too many impressionable and tiny young minds, such as Ben M's.

    The ludicrous guff about Thatcher is, for instance, so easily disprovable. Three years BEFORE she came to power the country was so broke we had to call in the IMF. It was hardly an industrial paradise that she "ruined".

    We need a new national curriculum which simply teaches the fact: Thatcher was Britain's greatest peacetime prime minister. No ifs, no buts. Just teach that fact to every British kid.
    We certainly did call in the IMF, whether we actually had to is rather murkier.

    (That's also quite clearly an opinion rather than a fact).
    HMG called in the IMF because it felt it might be a nice thing to do? What makes yo think that going to the IMF was an optional extra?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Newcastle was the only town at Christmas time where the police had to control the crowds of shoppers on the main street ..one side went one way and the other side went the other way. To get ino a pub on Bigg Market you had to wait until someone left.Skint it most certainly was not.
    It was also used as the market research town for new products.. If it sold in Newcastle then it would be rolled out across the rest of the country..
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    No, I'm just not denying that there's a load of money sloshing about as well.

    Plato said:

    Oh Dear Me.

    Of all the traps to fall into - you made the perfect one.

    The Porsche franchise in Newcastle was THE TOP SELLER at one time. And retail space was more expensive on Northumberland St than Oxford St when I was a teenager.

    The amazing lack of knowledge of Newcastle as a very prosperous area - and built in the style of Bath seems to be missing from the Down The Pit Leftish mindset who only want to recall Elswick/Scotswood and The Hanging Gibbit pub.

    Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.

    Absolute poppycock. Sorry, but you are talking complete, A1, no-holds-barred bollocks.
    Yes, I must have somehow failed to notice all of the yuppies driving their Porsches around the streets of Tyneside.
    Yes, Newcastle has fine architecture - built in the Georgian era, not under Thatcher.
    Lots of Porsches sold - to Tories from Hexhamshire and Toon/Sunlun players, no doubt.
    Expensive retail space - supply and demand - not enough shops for the population - that's why they built the MetroCentre.
    We grew up at the same time in the same place, but somehow have very different perspectives.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Exactly. There were also 42 pubs within 1 mile of the Haymarket - we did a pub crawl of them all as a fact-finding binge.

    And there are more people on Northumberland St at night than during the average day. It's epic. IIRC we also had the biggest M&S outside Oxford St.

    Newcastle was the only town at Christmas time where the police had to control the crowds of shoppers on the main street ..one side went one way and the other side went the other way. To get ino a pub on Bigg Market you had to wait until someone left.Skint it most certainly was not.
    It was also used as the market research town for new products.. If it sold in Newcastle then it would be rolled out across the rest of the country..

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT

    Cat Food Breath @CatFoodBreath
    You say "Christmas tree," I say "Giant make-your-own kitty toy." #OccupyTree
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SeanT said:

    calum said:

    As we await Scottish Constituency polling, as an SNP ex-Labour supporter from Stirling, which is a key marginal highlighted by Anti-frank in his excellent article of yesterday, I thought I would give you my perspective on the SNP surge and its likely impact in May 2015.

    My background, I’m Scottish but spent 20 years working in the City of London and witnessed the re-gentrification of London from the mid-1980s onwards, which enabled London to become an economic power house. I moved back to Scotland when my kids were of school age.

    .

    Looking at Scotland more broadly, I think the SNP membership surge is pretty much across the board. The focus on Yes v No %s is only relevant in a small number of seats, as the No/Unionist vote in most seats is too dispersed to combat the SNP. For example, even in the Borders where the Yes vote was only 33%, the SNP will still be nipping at David Mundel’s heels.

    Thanks for the insight, and eloquence, but your logic baffles me. London saved and then enriched itself by turning right: through lowering taxes, deregulation, the Big Bang, the Docklands redevelopment (hated by lefties at first), and so on and so forth.

    All the evidence is that an independent Scotland under the SNP or Labour would stay left, or go even Lefter: higher taxes, higher spending, higher deficits (plus the oil problem). So how would that revitalize the country?

    Or do you believe Scotland would eventually be FORCED to go right, by the threat of bankruptcy, and the pain of this would be worth the eventual gain?
    London's regentrification was also brought about by massive infrastructure investment e.g. Docklands, transport, airport expansion, M25 etc. Much of this investment was excluded from regional spending figures. The SNP would have learnt many of the lessons of London's recovery and applied them in Scotland e.g. airport expansion would have boosted tourism and economic growth. There would have been challenges but in the medium term Scotland would have been fine.
  • SeanT said:

    Piquant that, as the SNP surge, we now have concrete proof that Salmond and the Nats knowingly lied about the oil price, and expected revenue.

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-gas-will-we-ever-learn.html?m=1

    At some point economic reality will grab the Nats by the ear and give them an electoral spanking. But not for a while. And until then they will be the drawing pin on Ed Miliband's chair.

    The SNP deliberately lied about a whole range of issues - from EU membership through currency to oil. They did it knowing that it did not matter even slightly. That's what makes a referendum on separation a unique political event in a democracy. It is just about the only thing on which there is no going back once it has been voted for.
  • SeanT said:

    Piquant that, as the SNP surge, we now have concrete proof that Salmond and the Nats knowingly lied about the oil price, and expected revenue.

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-gas-will-we-ever-learn.html?m=1

    At some point economic reality will grab the Nats by the ear and give them an electoral spanking. But not for a while. And until then they will be the drawing pin on Ed Miliband's chair.

    The SNP's entire referendum strategy was based on lies - oil, EU membership, the currency, you name it. They very cleverly realised early on that there would be no downside to lying. Had there been a Yes vote, that would have been that. And this was all that mattered. It still is all that matters to the SNP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    SeanT said:

    Piquant that, as the SNP surge, we now have concrete proof that Salmond and the Nats knowingly lied about the oil price, and expected revenue.

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-gas-will-we-ever-learn.html?m=1

    At some point economic reality will grab the Nats by the ear and give them an electoral spanking. But not for a while. And until then they will be the drawing pin on Ed Miliband's chair.

    It does tell voters that the Nats' leadership can't be trusted, but I think many voters thought the Yes campaign was dubious anyway, which makes their polling all the more remarkable. Ultimately it seems like project fear is outweighing project dishonesty. Negative campaigning works but don't expect the voters to be grateful.

    OGH and others are expecting far too much of Murphy. Scotland isn't entirely divorced from the politics of rUK yet. His job at the GE is to encourage Scots to vote for Ed Miliband. In the end that largely depends on Ed Miliband. Murphy's big aim is surely to be first minister in 2016.
  • SeanT said:

    Piquant that, as the SNP surge, we now have concrete proof that Salmond and the Nats knowingly lied about the oil price, and expected revenue.

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-gas-will-we-ever-learn.html?m=1

    At some point economic reality will grab the Nats by the ear and give them an electoral spanking. But not for a while. And until then they will be the drawing pin on Ed Miliband's chair.

    The SNP deliberately lied about a whole range of issues - from EU membership through currency to oil. They did it knowing that it did not matter even slightly. That's what makes a referendum on separation a unique political event in a democracy. It is just about the only thing on which there is no going back once it has been voted for.
  • SeanT said:

    Piquant that, as the SNP surge, we now have concrete proof that Salmond and the Nats knowingly lied about the oil price, and expected revenue.

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-gas-will-we-ever-learn.html?m=1

    At some point economic reality will grab the Nats by the ear and give them an electoral spanking. But not for a while. And until then they will be the drawing pin on Ed Miliband's chair.

    The SNP's entire referendum strategy was based on lies - oil, EU membership, the currency, you name it. They very cleverly realised early on that there would be no downside to lying. Had there been a Yes vote, that would have been that. And this was all that mattered. It still is all that matters to the SNP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    SeanT said:

    Piquant that, as the SNP surge, we now have concrete proof that Salmond and the Nats knowingly lied about the oil price, and expected revenue.

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-gas-will-we-ever-learn.html?m=1

    At some point economic reality will grab the Nats by the ear and give them an electoral spanking. But not for a while. And until then they will be the drawing pin on Ed Miliband's chair.

    It does tell voters that the Nats' leadership can't be trusted, but I think many voters thought the Yes campaign was dubious anyway, which makes their polling all the more remarkable. Ultimately it seems like project fear is outweighing project dishonesty. Negative campaigning works but don't expect the voters to be grateful.

    OGH and others are expecting far too much of Murphy. Scotland isn't entirely divorced from the politics of rUK yet. His job at the GE is to encourage Scots to vote for Ed Miliband. In the end that largely depends on Ed Miliband. Murphy's big aim is surely to be first minister in 2016.
  • OGH and others are expecting far too much of Murphy. Scotland isn't entirely divorced from the politics of rUK yet. His job at the GE is to encourage Scots to vote for Ed Miliband. In the end that largely depends on Ed Miliband. Murphy's big aim is surely to be first minister in 2016.

    Tend to agree. Party leaders matter most when the electorate are judging who they want to lead a country. Murphy's leadership will make a very big difference in 2016 (one way or the other) but it's hard to see why it will make a huge difference in 2015 when he likely won't even be standing as an MP. It can't do any harm if he manages to take the fight to the SNP, of course, but aside from a few debates it will be a side issue.

    The trust issue is fairly interesting, though. There was a YouGov poll in September which showed that the vast majority of Yes voters trust Salmond, while only a tiny percentage (I think it was something absurdly low like 4%) trusted him on the No side. The SNP's rhetoric does seem to have a radical effect on those who support the party - almost to the extent that they can say anything and get away with it. In 2007 they completely reneged on two core manifesto pledges (to write off student loans and to abolish Council Tax in favour of a local income tax) yet got away with it. The degree of devotion from some of their supporters is fairly frightening - I like to think I have scepticism toward all politicians, especially the ones I vote for.
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