SeanT says - '' Salmond couldn't win a referendum in optimal circumstances: against a weak and disliked Tory-led government, at a time of major austerity, when he was facing a silly over-confident PM who allowed the Nats to choose the referendum question, the timing, the electorate - everything. And the Better Together team were universally regarded as rubbish. ''
Why do you have to spoil a good argument? For instance every Scottish party agreed to the age of voters. Who was going to say no to that? The question? Come off it what difference did that make? it you here who ae implying the Scots are stupid. The timing? What was the effect of that? Zero. Its a moot point if Salmond wanted the referendum anyway. Cameron pushed the issue with good effect. And came out of it with the call for EVEL more justified than ever.
There has been a referendum and there will not be another. Who gets what seats makes no difference.
Der. Just a few points: the timing was hugely relevant. Cameron idiotically gave Salmond years, to build emotional momentum. Cameron could have insisted the electorate include Scots living in the rest of the UK. Cameron could have demanded a Devomax option, killing off Yes completely. Etc etc.
But in his blasé, foolish, arrogant Etonian way Cameron thought he was bound to win, so he gave the wilier, cannier Salmond everything. And nearly blew it. Such generosity from Westminster will not happen again.
Interestingly I think Ed Miliband would be, and would have been, much less of a walkover. Ed might be a dork, but he has a skill at basic, aggressive politicking which Cameron lacks.
The SNP have been peddling the indy aganda since 2007 when they were the largest party. In other words years and years befor Cameron became PM in 2010. Salmond only got a majority to ask for a referendum in the Scottish parliament in 2011. Salmond himself stated that legislation for a referendum would be proposed in the "2nd half of the parliament. In fact Cameron pushed him into it in 2012. Have you never heard of parliamentary time tables? Do you really thing that any UK govt 'demanding' a partucular option would go down well? Do you like people 'demanding' that you do things? There is absolutley no evidence for your criticisms. Indeed the throwing in of 'Eton' shows all you have is ignorance.
The lesson for Farage/UKIP from Scotland. Because the SNP opposes fracking/shale gas, the Green vote gets nowhere. Not to mention the SNP surge itself being reinforced by Green policies.
SeanT says - '' Salmond couldn't win a referendum in optimal circumstances: against a weak and disliked Tory-led government, at a time of major austerity, when he was facing a silly over-confident PM who allowed the Nats to choose the referendum question, the timing, the electorate - everything. And the Better Together team were universally regarded as rubbish. ''
Why do you have to spoil a good argument? For instance every Scottish party agreed to the age of voters. Who was going to say no to that? The question? Come off it what difference did that make? it you here who ae implying the Scots are stupid. The timing? What was the effect of that? Zero. Its a moot point if Salmond wanted the referendum anyway. Cameron pushed the issue with good effect. And came out of it with the call for EVEL more justified than ever.
There has been a referendum and there will not be another. Who gets what seats makes no difference.
Der. Just a few points: the timing was hugely relevant. Cameron idiotically gave Salmond years, to build emotional momentum. Cameron could have insisted the electorate include Scots living in the rest of the UK. Cameron could have demanded a Devomax option, killing off Yes completely. Etc etc.
But in his blasé, foolish, arrogant Etonian way Cameron thought he was bound to win, so he gave the wilier, cannier Salmond everything. And nearly blew it. Such generosity from Westminster will not happen again.
Interestingly I think Ed Miliband would be, and would have been, much less of a walkover. Ed might be a dork, but he has a skill at basic, aggressive politicking which Cameron lacks.
Yes, the recent Guardian longform piece about the IndyRef stated that Cameron fell for Salmond's bluff - privately Salmond and co were already planning for a Yes-No, and Cameron then made having a binary question his one and only red line in the talks, The Nats understandably then kept Devo-Max on the table as a way of extracting concessions on other matters, meaning that the government were prepared to do anything to gain a concession that the SNP leadership already thought might be in their best interests, including acceding to putting it back to 2014, which was utterly daft!
The problem for Cameron was that if he had negotiated harder on the referendum points, the Nats would have just moaned that the whatever was unfair, and that's why they lost.
It had to be seen as unquestionably fair, even if that biased it towards the SNP.
Then no-one would have any reason to complain about it afterwards....
SeanT says - '' Salmond couldn't win a referendum in optimal circumstances: against a weak and disliked Tory-led government, at a time of major austerity, when he was facing a silly over-confident PM who allowed the Nats to choose the referendum question, the timing, the electorate - everything. And the Better Together team were universally regarded as rubbish. ''
Why do you have to spoil a good argument? For instance every Scottish party agreed to the age of voters. Who was going to say no to that? The question? Come off it what difference did that make? it you here who ae implying the Scots are stupid. The timing? What was the effect of that? Zero. Its a moot point if Salmond wanted the referendum anyway. Cameron pushed the issue with good effect. And came out of it with the call for EVEL more justified than ever.
There has been a referendum and there will not be another. Who gets what seats makes no difference.
Der. Just a few points: the timing was hugely relevant. Cameron idiotically gave Salmond years, to build emotional momentum. Cameron could have insisted the electorate include Scots living in the rest of the UK. Cameron could have demanded a Devomax option, killing off Yes completely. Etc etc.
But in his blasé, foolish, arrogant Etonian way Cameron thought he was bound to win, so he gave the wilier, cannier Salmond everything. And nearly blew it. Such generosity from Westminster will not happen again.
Interestingly I think Ed Miliband would be, and would have been, much less of a walkover. Ed might be a dork, but he has a skill at basic, aggressive politicking which Cameron lacks.
The SNP have been peddling the indy aganda since 2007 when they were the largest party. In other words years and years befor Cameron became PM in 2010. Salmond only got a majority to ask for a referendum in the Scottish parliament in 2011. Salmond himself stated that legislation for a referendum would be proposed in the "2nd half of the parliament. In fact Cameron pushed him into it in 2012. Have you never heard of parliamentary time tables? Do you really thing that any UK govt 'demanding' a partucular option would go down well? Do you like people 'demanding' that you do things? There is absolutley no evidence for your criticisms. Indeed the throwing in of 'Eton' shows all you have is ignorance.
Remember when Wendy Alexander had the common sense to say "Bring it on", then got slapped down from London? An early referendum, at a time when the SNP did not have a majority, so the other parties could have called the shots, would have been two-thirds No.
Then no-one would have any reason to complain about it afterwards....
Making sure devo-max wasn't no the ballot paper made sure that the referendum was clear and decisive. No post referendum arguments over what powers that entails no siree!
UKIP leader Nigel Farage says the game in which players kick immigrants as far as possible to gain the highest 'racism' rating is 'pathetic'
Nigel Farage has condemned a phone app made by schoolchildren featuring a character called Nicholas Fromage kicking immigrants off the white cliffs of Dover.
I can only say one thing: I remember when Murphy won that OGH betted on Murphy being next Labour leader and PB praetorian Tories writing on how great he is, while I wrote that Murphy would drive the SLP into the ground but it was already driven into the ground so it might not be much difference.
Off-topic: last Tuesday aftyernoon we applied for a first passport for our little 'un, and were told it could take up to six weeks to arrive. This morning it arrived through the post.
Six days; three working days. Impressive.
Perhaps the problems we get each summer are not due to inefficiencies at the passport office, but people leaving renewing or applying for passports until the very last minute?
Then no-one would have any reason to complain about it afterwards....
Making sure devo-max wasn't no the ballot paper made sure that the referendum was clear and decisive. No post referendum arguments over what powers that entails no siree!
Yes. Cameron has, in the end, been forced to offer the devomax which he could have offered in the first place; if he had offered it straight away, he would have ensured a decisive NO vote to outright independence and avoided the division and bitterness we now see, AND he would have screwed Labour.
He really is crap at basic devious politics. Easily outwitted by Salmond and Farage. Lost the boundary changes through total ineptitude. On and on it goes. Has OK hair though.
To be fair to Mr C, I'm not sure if he could have got proper devo-max through his own party - he is barely managing the absurd mockery that the Smith Commission has come up with, and it's not clear that even that last will get through parliament. But if he had offered it in 2012 he could have had time to sort it all out.
Don't forget - he not only moved the goalposts but also changed the game halfway through actual voting.
Off-topic: last Tuesday aftyernoon we applied for a first passport for our little 'un, and were told it could take up to six weeks to arrive. This morning it arrived through the post.
Six days; three working days. Impressive.
Perhaps the problems we get each summer are not due to inefficiencies at the passport office, but people leaving renewing or applying for passports until the very last minute?
Indeed, who could have known that leaving things to the last minute might have consequences?
A lot of government services, like road tax, passports, driving licenses are handled really well now, with a lot of automation and online services to make applications and renewals easier.
When I did my passport last I used the online form-filling site (no need to carefully write on the form), then you get sent a neatly printed copy of the form to sign, send that back in the post and it was all done within a week.
One of the things that is really good is because they digitise your photo, when I had to do my driving license a few weeks later I was able to do that online, and tick a box to include my photograph from my passport.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage says the game in which players kick immigrants as far as possible to gain the highest 'racism' rating is 'pathetic'
Nigel Farage has condemned a phone app made by schoolchildren featuring a character called Nicholas Fromage kicking immigrants off the white cliffs of Dover.
This poll may be the last chance for Labour UK to wake up and change their campaign priorities. If Labour’s Leadership thought a new SLAB Leader and finger crossing would suffice, they surely will wake up now?
Yet they have still not re-directed 80% of cash and workers to the 40 Scottish seats they need to fight hard over and only chase a few seats in England & Wales. Losing Scotland at a GE to a leftwing party, could be curtains for Labour.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage says the game in which players kick immigrants as far as possible to gain the highest 'racism' rating is 'pathetic'
Nigel Farage has condemned a phone app made by schoolchildren featuring a character called Nicholas Fromage kicking immigrants off the white cliffs of Dover.
Some of us have said that the election of Jim Murphy might make the wrong people happy. In spite of the polls I suspect most of the SLAB hierarchy simply do not believe they can lose many of the rotten burghs they have held since 1945.
As we await Scottish Constituency polling, as an SNP ex-Labour supporter from Stirling, which is a key marginal highlighted by Anti-frank in his excellent article of yesterday, I thought I would give you my perspective on the SNP surge and its likely impact in May 2015.
My background, I’m Scottish but spent 20 years working in the City of London and witnessed the re-gentrification of London from the mid-1980s onwards, which enabled London to become an economic power house. I moved back to Scotland when my kids were of school age.
Politics wise I had been a lifelong Labour supporter but started voting SNP in the 2011 Holyrood election and I voted Yes in the referendum based on my own research and conclusion that an independent Scotland would be better able to revitalise its economy, much like I witnessed in London during the 80s and 90s.
After the referendum, I joined the SNP, as the campaign had energized my interest in politics. The majority of people joining the SNP are motivated, working, new to politics, aged 25 to 55 and from a range of socio-economic backgrounds. Therefore, I think the media portrayal of the SNP surge as being driven by blind faith cyber-Nats is way off the mark and if anything will only keep driving up SNP membership. Similarly the SLAB demonising of the SNP is counterproductive as around 40 % of its traditional support base are currently supporting the SNP.
Turning to the May 2015 election in Stirling, currently Ladbrokes have Labour at 4/9, SNP at 13/8 and Tories at 50/1. In 2010 the result was Labour 42%, Tories 24%, SNP 17% and LibDem 15%. In the referendum, Stirling was 60% No and 40% Yes. I think the SNP will win Stirling with around 40% support. I do not anticipate any significant Unionist tactical voting.
In terms of the on the ground campaign in May 2015, the SNP now have around 1500 members in Stirling, up over 500%. Candidate selection is underway with 7 good candidates, 3 with political and 4 with ‘’normal’’ backgrounds. The sitting SLAB MP, Anne McGuire, is retiring and the leader of Stirling Council (Johanna Boyd) is standing. Interestingly Johanna leads a SLAB/Tory coalition with SNP being the largest party, suffice to say SLAB and the Tories make uneasy bedfellows.
Looking at Scotland more broadly, I think the SNP membership surge is pretty much across the board. The focus on Yes v No %s is only relevant in a small number of seats, as the No/Unionist vote in most seats is too dispersed to combat the SNP. For example, even in the Borders where the Yes vote was only 33%, the SNP will still be nipping at David Mundel’s heels.
Mr. 1000, I concur. London, Yorkshire and Cornwall would seem the most likely candidates for such parties, but we'd then get others in response to that.
That's why regionalisation is a recipe for division, bitterness, and ultimately the end of England. And yes, that sounds a bit doom-laden and dramatic, but no country in the world has a divine right to exist.
Wait until I become Manchester's first directly elected Mayor.
I'll form the Pennine Independence Party.
Is a stepping stone to become the UK's first directly elected Dictator.
The only thing of note about the trans-Pennine route is 'Snake-Pass'. A small, tiny, narrow road that scares most of the tax-bearing Londoners.
Yep, just like you! God luck in building your one-way street....
Snake Pass is a joke on the rest of the country.
Us locals go via Woodhead Pass
I enjoyed driving Snake Pass - but it was light, I wasn't in a hurry and there was no traffic to speak of.
To be honest, after all the tales I had heard I found Snake Pass a bit of a damp squib. But then I have been driving up and down the A303 for decades.
Off-topic: last Tuesday aftyernoon we applied for a first passport for our little 'un, and were told it could take up to six weeks to arrive. This morning it arrived through the post.
Six days; three working days. Impressive.
Perhaps the problems we get each summer are not due to inefficiencies at the passport office, but people leaving renewing or applying for passports until the very last minute?
Indeed, who could have known that leaving things to the last minute might have consequences?
A lot of government services, like road tax, passports, driving licenses are handled really well now, with a lot of automation and online services to make applications and renewals easier.
When I did my passport last I used the online form-filling site (no need to carefully write on the form), then you get sent a neatly printed copy of the form to sign, send that back in the post and it was all done within a week.
One of the things that is really good is because they digitise your photo, when I had to do my driving license a few weeks later I was able to do that online, and tick a box to include my photograph from my passport.
It couldn't have been much easier.
My son sent off, in v. early May for a passport for his very new (born mid-April) daughter. He lives abroad so it was slightly more complicated ..... translations of birth certificates had to be provided. He was planning to bring the family here last week of June. The passport didn’t arrive in time, so he got emergency travel documents, at, of course, a cost. The passport was waiting when he got home, but errors had been made ..... not his fault.
I really hope Lord A picks a wide range of seats in Scotland fro his polling and not just the SNP's lowest numerical targets. I would suggest this would be a good selection:
Glasgow N Glasgow E Edinburgh S Airdrie Falkirk Dumfries Argyll Aberdeenshire W Caithness
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Wow. Yet another thing the left was stupidly wrong about. Conservative about all the wrong things.
It is a laugh watching old episodes of The Sweeney and The Professionals. The waste land in which the Granadas and Capris were doing handbrake turns in litter, while Bodie and Doyle ran through puddles, is now some of the most valuable real estate in the world and nobody could think what to do with it except film Lewis Collins pouting.
I really hope Lord A picks a wide range of seats in Scotland fro his polling and not just the SNP's lowest numerical targets. I would suggest this would be a good selection:
Glasgow N Glasgow E Edinburgh S Airdrie Falkirk Dumfries Argyll Aberdeenshire W Caithness
Throw in one of the SNP's current seats in North East Scotland too -- I'm interested to see if, as Antifrank suggests, their surge is more muted in their heartlands which were generally very strong "No" votes.
With a hung parliament likely and the LDs likely to fall to around 25-30 seats if the SNP win more than 50 seats they will become the third biggest party and hold the balance of power. However, if the SNP fall to under 40% then Labour will likely just squeek ahead of them in numbers of Scottish seats and the LDs would likely hold the balance of power. Scotland could well determine the next government either way and the impact of the passage of the Smith plans into law from January will be crucial in perhaps slowing the SNP advance
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Wow. Yet another thing the left was stupidly wrong about. Conservative about all the wrong things.
It is a laugh watching old episodes of The Sweeney and The Professionals. The waste land in which the Granadas and Capris were doing handbrake turns in litter, while Bodie and Doyle ran through puddles, is now some of the most valuable real estate in the world and nobody could think what to do with it except film Lewis Collins pouting.
Unfortunately the wastelands were relocated to the rest of Britain under Thatcher - and they are still here.
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Very nice photos - the link has links to two more sets, this time of Brick Lane Market.
It is a laugh watching old episodes of The Sweeney and The Professionals.
Remember the Notting Hill riots?? Riots?? in Notting Hill?? Now the only thing likely to cause a riot there is the local shops running out of Focaccia...
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Up went Thatcher's phallic citadels of financial power, only to bring the world economy to its knees 30 years later.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Up went Thatcher's phallic citadels of financial power, only to bring the world economy to its knees 30 years later.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
Manufacturing declined more under Labour 1997-2010, than it did under Fatcher.
It is a laugh watching old episodes of The Sweeney and The Professionals.
Remember the Notting Hill riots?? Riots?? in Notting Hill?? Now the only thing likely to cause a riot there is the local shops running out of Focaccia...
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Up went Thatcher's phallic citadels of financial power, only to bring the world economy to its knees 30 years later.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
Brilliant, a third of a century later, the last decade of that time under Labour, the financial regulatory structure entirely created by Labour despite the warnings of the Conservatives, and you STILL manage the intellectual circus act of blaming Lady Thatcher!
She took us from being the sick man of Europe to being the most dynamic economy in Europe, and gave us a quarter of a century of prosperity. Those are the simple facts of the matter.
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Up went Thatcher's phallic citadels of financial power, only to bring the world economy to its knees 30 years later.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.
I think lefties do believe it, in a sort of religious-faith way. Obviously it's not a belief which could survive any contact with reality.
SO/SeanF/TCPB A Tory majority is not going to happen, the Tories need to be 6/7 points ahead of Labour and with UKIP that is impossible, it is still possible Labour could end up the largest party in England and Wales but come behind the SNP in Scotland which would finally put an end to the myth that Labour cannot win without Scotland
SO/SeanF A Tory majority is not going to happen, the Tories need to be 6/7 points ahead of Labour and with UKIP that is impossible, it is still possible Labour could end up the largest party in England and Wales but come behind the SNP in Scotland which would finally put an end to the myth that Labour cannot win without Scotland
A four point swing in six months is impossible? Really?
Some of us have said that the election of Jim Murphy might make the wrong people happy. In spite of the polls I suspect most of the SLAB hierarchy simply do not believe they can lose many of the rotten burghs they have held since 1945.
And some of the right people unhappy, in view of the rather startling news that Mr Murphy is promoting the return of alcohol to football grounds, and the abolition of the anti-sectarian laws, both of which will horrify many Scots (in spite of Mr M's not unfair comment that rugger spectators can drink at Murrayfield etc., and VIPs can booze in the hospitality box at footie clubs). Mr Wings has a fair point when he inquires what women voters in particular will think of that (refs therein, BTW):
(For those who don't know, Celtic/Rangers games are infamous for causing a spike in police arrests and A&E admissions, both partly for battering female partners. I know, it sounds daft, and it is, but it is what happens.)
SeanT The SNP is actually to the right of Labour on tax, opposing Miliband and Murphy's 50% top tax rate and for lower corporation tax. At least that was the case under Salmond, whether Sturgeon will reverse that tax policy remains to be seen!
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Up went Thatcher's phallic citadels of financial power, only to bring the world economy to its knees 30 years later.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
That's what happens if you let Labour in. They assume anything they don't understand must be easy, so there's no need to understand the City or regulate it properly. Just tax it and p>ss away the money.
Labour thereby wrecked America's economy, by creating an unfit-for-purpose regulatory structure that gave London such a huge advantage America had to copy it to stay in the game. Wrecking America's economy duly wrecked ours as well, and now the b>tches want to be put back in charge so they can do it all over again.
The reason Labour's never said sorry for 1997-2010 is because they're not sorry and they want to have another go and really f>ck the world this time.
Hard to believe that large swathes of London were like this in 1980: Wapping, Borough, Camden, Holborn, Docklands, Euston, etc. That's what socialism does to you. Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
Up went Thatcher's phallic citadels of financial power, only to bring the world economy to its knees 30 years later.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
...gave us a quarter of a century of prosperity...
Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.
It is a laugh watching old episodes of The Sweeney and The Professionals.
Remember the Notting Hill riots?? Riots?? in Notting Hill?? Now the only thing likely to cause a riot there is the local shops running out of Focaccia...
The amazing thing is how well the 70s cars stood up to the cardboard boxes.
They couldn't use Lancias because if it had rained they'd have melted faster than the boxes.
I forgot 5 million rotting on the dole under Thatch of course.
Thatcher was needed. Like a hole in the head.
Bless you, Ben. Your flights of fancy bring a gaiety to this site that on a cold, dark winter's afternoon it sometimes sorely needs. Keep up the good work.
Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.
Absolute poppycock. Sorry, but you are talking complete, A1, no-holds-barred bollocks.
Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.
Absolute poppycock. Sorry, but you are talking complete, A1, no-holds-barred bollocks.
Yes, I must have somehow failed to notice all of the yuppies driving their Porsches around the streets of Tyneside.
I really hope Lord A picks a wide range of seats in Scotland fro his polling and not just the SNP's lowest numerical targets. I would suggest this would be a good selection:
I'd suggest two SNP held controls:
Dundee East - SNP vs Labour Perthshire N - SNP vs Conservative
Of your list I'd go with:
Glasgow N Glasgow E
(Tho' I'd also be interested to see what happens in Glasgow S & Central as well)
Replace Edinburgh E with Edinburgh S
Replace Cumbernauld with Airdrie
Keep Falkirk
By Dumfries I take it you mean David Mundell's seat rather than Russell Brown's. I'd keep on basis it's only Tory held seat.
Now it's only 16% down on a month ago. And all it took was a 17% interest rate. This is clearly a spectacular success story for the great leader! It is a conspiracy by the Washington-controlled international media for not reporting it!
PS. Aren't the Chinese sneaky traitors that only look out for their own race and thus we shouldn't allow them to immigrate? Yet they can be relied upon to financially prop up Mother Russia?
RN A Tory majority would require a 1992 type vote of 40%+ for the Tories and Labour on about 34%, that would require virtually all the UKIP voters who have switched from the Tories to return at the very least, while the Tories may win some back to become largest party, at the moment I see no prospect of Cameron reaching 40%
SO/SeanF A Tory majority is not going to happen, the Tories need to be 6/7 points ahead of Labour and with UKIP that is impossible, it is still possible Labour could end up the largest party in England and Wales but come behind the SNP in Scotland which would finally put an end to the myth that Labour cannot win without Scotland
A four point swing in six months is impossible? Really?
Not impossible, but it should be noted that "swingback" on that scale hasn't happened in a very long time -- the polls at the end of 2009 were broadly similar to the real 2010 result (apart from the Lib Dems nobbling a couple of points off both the Big Two), and in 2001 and 2005 there were actually swings to the opposition in the final months.
Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.
Absolute poppycock. Sorry, but you are talking complete, A1, no-holds-barred bollocks.
Yes, I must have somehow failed to notice all of the yuppies driving their Porsches around the streets of Tyneside.
But you couldn't have failed to notice all the council tenants who eagerly bought their homes, becoming property owners for the first time. Under Thatcher.
Actually, becoming serious for a moment, has there been any research to show whether those who bought under the scheme would have moved out and bought their own homes anyway? Offering huge discounts on the market value was a massive incentive to buy where you were, rather than buying elsewhere.
Balls and Osborne could work together, I can't possibly see Osborne (or anyone sensible) being prepared to work with Miliband. Indeed even Balls scarcely bothers to hide his contempt for his boss.
Even in the unlikely event that the Tories lead the coalition, it's very hard to know where you'd put Miliband. I can't see the Tories accepting someone so left-wing in the Treasury, and you'd be bloody embarrassed sending him off to meet President Clinton, especially after his shenanigans over the Syria vote. Presumably he'd have Clegg's DPM role.
In a Labour-led Coalition, Cameron would presumably resign. And I can't see a Tory being willing to go near the Treasury with Ed at the helm. Perhaps it would be:
SeanT The SNP is actually to the right of Labour on tax, opposing Miliband and Murphy's 50% top tax rate and for lower corporation tax. At least that was the case under Salmond, whether Sturgeon will reverse that tax policy remains to be seen!
A. They don't oppose the 50p tax rate. In fact their MPs voted to keep it whilst Murphy and Miliband abstained.
B. Labour lowered corporation tax three times when they were in government. M&M never objected or voted against.
Terrible news coming from Glasgow of an accident in George Square involving a dustbin lorry hitting pedestrians. STV reporting several people thought to be dead.
Mr. Calum, that sounds like a credible prediction.
I also think that kind of local [in a broad sense] advantage the SNP enjoys is why English regionalisation would be a disaster (we'd end up with YNP and LNP type parties in Yorkshire, London and elsewhere, with demagogues complaining about spending per head being higher in London/Yorkshire receiving tax money from London and showing no gratitude etc and whipping up division).
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the rise of a London party - simply because London increasingly marches to a different beat to the rest of the country. And there's that funny bunch in Cornwall that SeanT supports.
The big problem for a London Party is that while most of London's residents are metropolitan New Labour types, a large number of the workers responsible for its wealth commute in from the Tory shires.
The majority of Londoners are certainly not metropolitan New Labour types. A huge chunk of the Labour vote is working class Afro-Caribbeans, Bangladeshis and other minority ethnic groups.
Mr. Calum, that sounds like a credible prediction.
I also think that kind of local [in a broad sense] advantage the SNP enjoys is why English regionalisation would be a disaster (we'd end up with YNP and LNP type parties in Yorkshire, London and elsewhere, with demagogues complaining about spending per head being higher in London/Yorkshire receiving tax money from London and showing no gratitude etc and whipping up division).
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the rise of a London party - simply because London increasingly marches to a different beat to the rest of the country. And there's that funny bunch in Cornwall that SeanT supports.
The big problem for a London Party is that while most of London's residents are metropolitan New Labour types, a large number of the workers responsible for its wealth commute in from the Tory shires.
The majority of Londoners are certainly not metropolitan New Labour types. A huge chunk of the Labour vote is working class Afro-Caribbeans, Bangladeshis and other minority ethnic groups.
Judging by the European election results, even the white working-class in London are largely still sticking with Labour (for now). They even won by a landslide in Barking & Dagenham.
RN A Tory majority would require a 1992 type vote of 40%+ for the Tories and Labour on about 34%, that would require virtually all the UKIP voters who have switched from the Tories to return at the very least, while the Tories may win some back to become largest party, at the moment I see no prospect of Cameron reaching 40%
No, that's too one-dimensional a view. Consider:
- Labour drifting downwards a few points through losses to Greens, UKIP, Can't Be Bothered - Kippers drifting back a bit (and differentially, i.e. more of the Con->UKIP switchers than Lab->UKIP switchers returning to the 'home' party) - A few LibDems switching - A few Lab->Tory switchers
Taken together, these could easily amount to (say) Lab 30%, Con 36%, which would probably do the trick, depending on the exact places in which these swings happened.
I'm not saying this will happen, but I am saying it is one of a range of perfectly plausible scenarios and is well within the bounds of the kinds of shifts typically seen in the last few months before an election.
In principle the same kinds of shifts could take Labour to a majority, but I think that is much less likely. The net shift over the next few months will be towards the Conservatives IMO; the only question is how big it will be.
Mr. Calum, that sounds like a credible prediction.
I also think that kind of local [in a broad sense] advantage the SNP enjoys is why English regionalisation would be a disaster (we'd end up with YNP and LNP type parties in Yorkshire, London and elsewhere, with demagogues complaining about spending per head being higher in London/Yorkshire receiving tax money from London and showing no gratitude etc and whipping up division).
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the rise of a London party - simply because London increasingly marches to a different beat to the rest of the country. And there's that funny bunch in Cornwall that SeanT supports.
Sounds unlikely. London is too diverse, arguably more diverse than the UK. Can you conceive of a single political movement to represent and promote the interests of Tower Hamlets, Richmond, Lewisham, Kensington and Southall?
Yes, of course.
London is no more diverse than Scotland.
All you need to do is to focus on an external enemy, and the fact that London pays for the United Kingdom, while politicians from the shires run it.
"a fair deal for London"
Focus on regulations by out of towners who am determined to do London down.
Why shouldn't Londoners be allowed to rule themselves?
I reckon you'd be able to pick up votes from all parties, by the clever expedient (pioneered by ukip and the snp) of focusing on "we should be allowed to choose for ourselves" without being too specific about what those choices are.
I think it could be a minority party but not much more than that. It's worth noting that the "shires" around London are responsible for a big chunk of its work force, and are also net contributors to the UK. What are the regulations that do London down? The mansion tax is the only one that comes to mind, but I can't see most rich banking households wanting to have their entire economic policy set by the electorate that twice put in Ken Livingstone.
Mr. Calum, that sounds like a credible prediction.
I also think that kind of local [in a broad sense] advantage the SNP enjoys is why English regionalisation would be a disaster (we'd end up with YNP and LNP type parties in Yorkshire, London and elsewhere, with demagogues complaining about spending per head being higher in London/Yorkshire receiving tax money from London and showing no gratitude etc and whipping up division).
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the rise of a London party - simply because London increasingly marches to a different beat to the rest of the country. And there's that funny bunch in Cornwall that SeanT supports.
The big problem for a London Party is that while most of London's residents are metropolitan New Labour types, a large number of the workers responsible for its wealth commute in from the Tory shires.
The majority of Londoners are certainly not metropolitan New Labour types. A huge chunk of the Labour vote is working class Afro-Caribbeans, Bangladeshis and other minority ethnic groups.
Judging by the European election results, even the white working-class in London are largely still sticking with Labour (for now). They even won by a landslide in Barking & Dagenham.
Whereas you, dear boy, are an eternal ray of sunshine?
Contemplating your girlfriend and your daughter and your bank balance, yes, and long may they all flourish.
But otherwise, it's All Gloom, innit? Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Britain, Europe, America. All horribly, inevitably doomed, each in their own different gruesome way.
By comparison, we lefties here have quite sunny dispositions, as a rule. Life is good fun, and better government is only 4 months away.
Mr. 1000, I concur. London, Yorkshire and Cornwall would seem the most likely candidates for such parties, but we'd then get others in response to that.
That's why regionalisation is a recipe for division, bitterness, and ultimately the end of England. And yes, that sounds a bit doom-laden and dramatic, but no country in the world has a divine right to exist.
Wait until I become Manchester's first directly elected Mayor.
I'll form the Pennine Independence Party.
Is a stepping stone to become the UK's first directly elected Dictator.
The only thing of note about the trans-Pennine route is 'Snake-Pass'. A small, tiny, narrow road that scares most of the tax-bearing Londoners.
Yep, just like you! God luck in building your one-way street....
Snake Pass is a joke on the rest of the country.
Us locals go via Woodhead Pass
I enjoyed driving Snake Pass - but it was light, I wasn't in a hurry and there was no traffic to speak of.
To be honest, after all the tales I had heard I found Snake Pass a bit of a damp squib. But then I have been driving up and down the A303 for decades.
Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.
Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.
Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.
She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.
One of the great failures of the Right has been its failure to own the narrative the way the Right owns the facts. The Right has been correct on almost every issue since 1980, yet the Left has managed to implant some fatuous, mendacious version of events in too many impressionable and tiny young minds, such as Ben M's.
The ludicrous guff about Thatcher is, for instance, so easily disprovable. Three years BEFORE she came to power the country was so broke we had to call in the IMF. It was hardly an industrial paradise that she "ruined".
We need a new national curriculum which simply teaches the fact: Thatcher was Britain's greatest peacetime prime minister. No ifs, no buts. Just teach that fact to every British kid.
SeanT, from personal experience, telling children what they have to think is the quickest way of getting them to believe the polar opposite. It is particularly noticeable in RE, where a lot of not over-bright personally religious teachers see the subject as an excellent opportunity to proselytise. When I followed one such teacher as head of subject, I found I had a lot of mini-Richard Dawkins to teach (albeit, their arguments were a great deal more sophisticated than his) and a few deists. Only 1 Christian was left.
RN A Tory majority would require a 1992 type vote of 40%+ for the Tories and Labour on about 34%, that would require virtually all the UKIP voters who have switched from the Tories to return at the very least, while the Tories may win some back to become largest party, at the moment I see no prospect of Cameron reaching 40%
No, that's too one-dimensional a view. Consider:
- Labour drifting downwards a few points through losses to Greens, UKIP, Can't Be Bothered - Kippers drifting back a bit (and differentially, i.e. more of the Con->UKIP switchers than Lab->UKIP switchers returning to the 'home' party) - A few LibDems switching - A few Lab->Tory switchers
Taken together, these could easily amount to (say) Lab 30%, Con 36%, which would probably do the trick, depending on the exact places in which these swings happened.
I'm not saying this will happen, but I am saying it is one of a range of perfectly plausible scenarios and is well within the bounds of the kinds of shifts typically seen in the last few months before an election.
In principle the same kinds of shifts could take Labour to a majority, but I think that is much less likely. The net shift over the next few months will be towards the Conservatives IMO; the only question is how big it will be.
I hadn't looked at this market before.. Aren't the Cons a bit short at 1/2
Mr. 1000, I concur. London, Yorkshire and Cornwall would seem the most likely candidates for such parties, but we'd then get others in response to that.
That's why regionalisation is a recipe for division, bitterness, and ultimately the end of England. And yes, that sounds a bit doom-laden and dramatic, but no country in the world has a divine right to exist.
Wait until I become Manchester's first directly elected Mayor.
I'll form the Pennine Independence Party.
Is a stepping stone to become the UK's first directly elected Dictator.
The only thing of note about the trans-Pennine route is 'Snake-Pass'. A small, tiny, narrow road that scares most of the tax-bearing Londoners.
Yep, just like you! God luck in building your one-way street....
Snake Pass is a joke on the rest of the country.
Us locals go via Woodhead Pass
I enjoyed driving Snake Pass - but it was light, I wasn't in a hurry and there was no traffic to speak of.
To be honest, after all the tales I had heard I found Snake Pass a bit of a damp squib. But then I have been driving up and down the A303 for decades.
Not impossible, but it should be noted that "swingback" on that scale hasn't happened in a very long time -- the polls at the end of 2009 were broadly similar to the real 2010 result
Not really. The Conservative leads in each of the December 2009 polls were:
11 7 13 8 17 17 11 9 9 17 12 10 16 9 7 10
Average 11.4
Final lead 7.1
Of course every election is different, but shifts of several points in five or six months are quite normal.
Then came Thatcher, and London hasn't looked back since.
To understand why Thatcher is so important, you really have to have lived in Britain before she came to power.
I remember when lefties actually COMPLAINED about the first plans for Canary Wharf . Like they preferred the Docklands to be derelict. Then when the first towers went up, and the dereliction ended, they complained it was soulless and had no transport links. When the transport links were fixed they complained that it was just bankers pushing locals out. When journalists and residents moved in they complained that the architecture was banal. When stunning new buildings went up they complained the architecture was too bold. Then they complained about... f@*ck knows. It's all lefties do. Complain.
Meanwhile New Labour tried to take all the credit for the redevelopment of East London during the Olympics, and Labour councils happily rake in all the tax money of rich new residents and businesses which they use to pay their loyal voters in benefits.
Lefties. What would we do without them. Live in eternal sunshine, probably.
As I've said several times passim, there should be a statue erected to Heseltine in Canary Wharf. He changed the face of London for the better with the LDDC. Instead, we'll probably get one of Livingstone, who refused to even acknowledge the LDDC's existence.
I lived on the Isle of Dogs for a year in 1992/3. It was a great time to be there, with modern and old abutting: change in progress. It's lost a lot of its character in the last twenty years, which, in many ways, is probably for the best.
Of all the traps to fall into - you made the perfect one.
The Porsche franchise in Newcastle was THE TOP SELLER at one time. And retail space was more expensive on Northumberland St than Oxford St when I was a teenager.
The amazing lack of knowledge of Newcastle as a very prosperous area - and built in the style of Bath seems to be missing from the Down The Pit Leftish mindset who only want to recall Elswick/Scotswood and The Hanging Gibbit pub.
Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.
Absolute poppycock. Sorry, but you are talking complete, A1, no-holds-barred bollocks.
Yes, I must have somehow failed to notice all of the yuppies driving their Porsches around the streets of Tyneside.
To return to my earlier point about Grand Coalitions, I've read the comments with interest. Nobody has so far, in my judgement, put forward a compelling case that such a thing is impossible. At the moment, the odds on Betfair of such a government are 20/1 and in my view the real chances of it happening are more like 6/1 on the current polls and especially given Scotland. Therefore, it seems a decent value bet if anyone is interested.
Mr. Calum, that sounds like a credible prediction.
I also think that kind of local [in a broad sense] advantage the SNP enjoys is why English regionalisation would be a disaster (we'd end up with YNP and LNP type parties in Yorkshire, London and elsewhere, with demagogues complaining about spending per head being higher in London/Yorkshire receiving tax money from London and showing no gratitude etc and whipping up division).
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the rise of a London party - simply because London increasingly marches to a different beat to the rest of the country. And there's that funny bunch in Cornwall that SeanT supports.
The big problem for a London Party is that while most of London's residents are metropolitan New Labour types, a large number of the workers responsible for its wealth commute in from the Tory shires.
The majority of Londoners are certainly not metropolitan New Labour types. A huge chunk of the Labour vote is working class Afro-Caribbeans, Bangladeshis and other minority ethnic groups.
Judging by the European election results, even the white working-class in London are largely still sticking with Labour (for now). They even won by a landslide in Barking & Dagenham.
I don't know where you're getting that data from. UK-wide, whites in manual professions are roughly split between Labour and the Tories, while ethnic minorities in manual professions break six to one for Labour. Given that half of the population of Barking and Dagenham are non-white, that's no evidence at all of the WWC backing Labour there. The landslide is perfectly consistent with ramping up the margin in the ethnic vote.
Whereas you, dear boy, are an eternal ray of sunshine?
Contemplating your girlfriend and your daughter and your bank balance, yes, and long may they all flourish.
But otherwise, it's All Gloom, innit? Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Britain, Europe, America. All horribly, inevitably doomed, each in their own different gruesome way.
By comparison, we lefties here have quite sunny dispositions, as a rule. Life is good fun, and better government is only 4 months away.
Unless the date of the next election has been moved without anyone mentioning it, it's a little more than four months to it.
Likewise, unless Jon Cruddas has replaced Ed Miliband and Ed Balls has been quietly locked away somewhere where he can do no more damage, there's small prospect of a better government than at present, which is not exactly the greatest government in the history of the universe.
So I regret, NPXMP, that you've actually made my life slightly more miserable.
NP/SeanT It depends on the viewpoint, UKIPites, many of the anti-immigration, anti EU Tories, The Tea Party tend to be pessimists, whereas Blair or Clinton or Wilson were optimists. Lefties like Brown and Vince Cable are natural pessimists, whereas the likes of Reagan and Boris on the right offer an inclusive, positive vision of the future
Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.
Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.
Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.
She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.
One of the great failures of the Right has been its failure to own the narrative the way the Right owns the facts. The Right has been correct on almost every issue since 1980, yet the Left has managed to implant some fatuous, mendacious version of events in too many impressionable and tiny young minds, such as Ben M's.
The ludicrous guff about Thatcher is, for instance, so easily disprovable. Three years BEFORE she came to power the country was so broke we had to call in the IMF. It was hardly an industrial paradise that she "ruined".
We need a new national curriculum which simply teaches the fact: Thatcher was Britain's greatest peacetime prime minister. No ifs, no buts. Just teach that fact to every British kid.
BenM's polluted mental landscape is proof that Goebbels' Big Lie theory is valid.
Mr. T, it was SJW types who whined and bitched about the shirt the nasty comet-probe landing man wore [made for and given to him by one of his female friends]. Judging a man by his clothing rather than his achievements - way to break down female gender stereotypes.
RN I can't see Labour going that low, simply because of the return of many of the 2010, anti Iraq LDs they are back to their 1992 share there or thereabouts even with the rise of the SNP and Green vote the latest polls all show Labour at least within a point or 2 of the 34% Kinnock won then. I would agree the Tories need to get to 36/37% to at least ensure they are largest party
Yes that is too short. The 2.75 on Labour is value (although you'd need to look at what other bets you have).
Oh I cant get on anyway.. I haven't got any bets on the outcome actually, other than those involving UKIP, so you can be sure any comments I make are not influenced by my book (or any affiliation!)
Not impossible, but it should be noted that "swingback" on that scale hasn't happened in a very long time -- the polls at the end of 2009 were broadly similar to the real 2010 result
Not really. The Conservative leads in each of the December 2009 polls were:
11 7 13 8 17 17 11 9 9 17 12 10 16 9 7 10
Average 11.4
Final lead 7.1
Of course every election is different, but shifts of several points in five or six months are quite normal.
If you take out the 17% Angus Reid outliers, the lead is a fair bit lower.
Mr. Divvie, no, I think things are a bit grimmer. Haven't there been other deaths caused by vehicles, in France with the drivers shouting "Allahu Akbar"?
And last week we had those two terrorist incidents, and the multiple child murder in Australia.
AndrewStuart It is official Labour Party policy to reintroduce the 50% top tax rate, Salmond refused to say he supported its reintroduction in the Scottish Parliament. Salmond was also committed to lowering corporation tax in Scotland to attract new investors
Of all the traps to fall into - you made the perfect one.
The Porsche franchise in Newcastle was THE TOP SELLER at one time. And retail space was more expensive on Northumberland St than Oxford St when I was a teenager.
The amazing lack of knowledge of Newcastle as a very prosperous area - and built in the style of Bath seems to be missing from the Down The Pit Leftish mindset who only want to recall Elswick/Scotswood and The Hanging Gibbit pub.
Who is this "us" you speak of? Perhaps in an 'us & them' sense. But with no such thing as society, it certainly didn't apply to many people in my neck of the woods.
Absolute poppycock. Sorry, but you are talking complete, A1, no-holds-barred bollocks.
Yes, I must have somehow failed to notice all of the yuppies driving their Porsches around the streets of Tyneside.
Yes, Newcastle has fine architecture - built in the Georgian era, not under Thatcher. Lots of Porsches sold - to Tories from Hexhamshire and Toon/Sunlun players, no doubt. Expensive retail space - supply and demand - not enough shops for the population - that's why they built the MetroCentre. We grew up at the same time in the same place, but somehow have very different perspectives.
Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.
Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.
Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.
She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.
One of the great failures of the Right has been its failure to own the narrative the way the Right owns the facts. The Right has been correct on almost every issue since 1980, yet the Left has managed to implant some fatuous, mendacious version of events in too many impressionable and tiny young minds, such as Ben M's.
The ludicrous guff about Thatcher is, for instance, so easily disprovable. Three years BEFORE she came to power the country was so broke we had to call in the IMF. It was hardly an industrial paradise that she "ruined".
We need a new national curriculum which simply teaches the fact: Thatcher was Britain's greatest peacetime prime minister. No ifs, no buts. Just teach that fact to every British kid.
We certainly did call in the IMF, whether we actually had to is rather murkier.
(That's also quite clearly an opinion rather than a fact).
Not impossible, but it should be noted that "swingback" on that scale hasn't happened in a very long time -- the polls at the end of 2009 were broadly similar to the real 2010 result
Not really. The Conservative leads in each of the December 2009 polls were:
11 7 13 8 17 17 11 9 9 17 12 10 16 9 7 10
Average 11.4
Final lead 7.1
Of course every election is different, but shifts of several points in five or six months are quite normal.
If you take out the Angus Reid outliers, the lead is a fair bit lower.
Not really:
Comres 10/12/09 Con Lead 17 Ipsos MORI 13/12/09 Con Lead 17
Of course if you want to cherry pick polls you could say some of the recent Labour leads have been 'outliers'.
More importantly, no-one is suggesting history repeats itself exactly, and that you can therefore predict May 2015 by subtracting X% from the December 2014 scores. It's just that stuff happens, polls shift. That is normal.
Oh I cant get on anyway.. I haven't got any bets on the outcome actually, other than those involving UKIP, so you can be sure any comments I make are not influenced by my book (or any affiliation!)
I'd price that market at maybe 1.8 Con 2.2 Lab. Pure guess, of course, but I agree that 1.5 Con looks too short.
Do you actually believe this juvenile piffle? I suspect not.
Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.
Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.
She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.
One of the great failures of the Right has been its failure to own the narrative
HoHoHo
Because the Right doesn't own The Mail, Sun, Times, Telegraph, Express etc etc etc?
Remind me which former PM was godfather to one of Rupert Murdoch's children? Also if you believe that the telegraph is pro Tory you are delusional or haven't read it in the past five years.
Comments
Have you never heard of parliamentary time tables?
Do you really thing that any UK govt 'demanding' a partucular option would go down well? Do you like people 'demanding' that you do things?
There is absolutley no evidence for your criticisms. Indeed the throwing in of 'Eton' shows all you have is ignorance.
The problem for Cameron was that if he had negotiated harder on the referendum points, the Nats would have just moaned that the whatever was unfair, and that's why they lost.
It had to be seen as unquestionably fair, even if that biased it towards the SNP.
Then no-one would have any reason to complain about it afterwards....
UKIP leader Nigel Farage says the game in which players kick immigrants as far as possible to gain the highest 'racism' rating is 'pathetic'
Nigel Farage has condemned a phone app made by schoolchildren featuring a character called Nicholas Fromage kicking immigrants off the white cliffs of Dover.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11307663/Nigel-Farage-condemns-schoolchildren-for-making-risible-anti-Ukip-app.html
I remember when Murphy won that OGH betted on Murphy being next Labour leader and PB praetorian Tories writing on how great he is, while I wrote that Murphy would drive the SLP into the ground but it was already driven into the ground so it might not be much difference.
Six days; three working days. Impressive.
Perhaps the problems we get each summer are not due to inefficiencies at the passport office, but people leaving renewing or applying for passports until the very last minute?
Don't forget - he not only moved the goalposts but also changed the game halfway through actual voting.
A lot of government services, like road tax, passports, driving licenses are handled really well now, with a lot of automation and online services to make applications and renewals easier.
When I did my passport last I used the online form-filling site (no need to carefully write on the form), then you get sent a neatly printed copy of the form to sign, send that back in the post and it was all done within a week.
One of the things that is really good is because they digitise your photo, when I had to do my driving license a few weeks later I was able to do that online, and tick a box to include my photograph from my passport.
It couldn't have been much easier.
Yet they have still not re-directed 80% of cash and workers to the 40 Scottish seats they need to fight hard over and only chase a few seats in England & Wales. Losing Scotland at a GE to a leftwing party, could be curtains for Labour.
My background, I’m Scottish but spent 20 years working in the City of London and witnessed the re-gentrification of London from the mid-1980s onwards, which enabled London to become an economic power house. I moved back to Scotland when my kids were of school age.
Politics wise I had been a lifelong Labour supporter but started voting SNP in the 2011 Holyrood election and I voted Yes in the referendum based on my own research and conclusion that an independent Scotland would be better able to revitalise its economy, much like I witnessed in London during the 80s and 90s.
After the referendum, I joined the SNP, as the campaign had energized my interest in politics. The majority of people joining the SNP are motivated, working, new to politics, aged 25 to 55 and from a range of socio-economic backgrounds. Therefore, I think the media portrayal of the SNP surge as being driven by blind faith cyber-Nats is way off the mark and if anything will only keep driving up SNP membership. Similarly the SLAB demonising of the SNP is counterproductive as around 40 % of its traditional support base are currently supporting the SNP.
Turning to the May 2015 election in Stirling, currently Ladbrokes have Labour at 4/9, SNP at 13/8 and Tories at 50/1. In 2010 the result was Labour 42%, Tories 24%, SNP 17% and LibDem 15%. In the referendum, Stirling was 60% No and 40% Yes. I think the SNP will win Stirling with around 40% support. I do not anticipate any significant Unionist tactical voting.
In terms of the on the ground campaign in May 2015, the SNP now have around 1500 members in Stirling, up over 500%. Candidate selection is underway with 7 good candidates, 3 with political and 4 with ‘’normal’’ backgrounds. The sitting SLAB MP, Anne McGuire, is retiring and the leader of Stirling Council (Johanna Boyd) is standing. Interestingly Johanna leads a SLAB/Tory coalition with SNP being the largest party, suffice to say SLAB and the Tories make uneasy bedfellows.
Looking at Scotland more broadly, I think the SNP membership surge is pretty much across the board. The focus on Yes v No %s is only relevant in a small number of seats, as the No/Unionist vote in most seats is too dispersed to combat the SNP. For example, even in the Borders where the Yes vote was only 33%, the SNP will still be nipping at David Mundel’s heels.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/Grossglockner_High_Alpine_Road.JPG
The passport was waiting when he got home, but errors had been made ..... not his fault.
Is that one-all?
Glasgow N
Glasgow E
Edinburgh S
Airdrie
Falkirk
Dumfries
Argyll
Aberdeenshire W
Caithness
To understand why Thatcher is so important, you really have to have lived in Britain before she came to power.
It is a laugh watching old episodes of The Sweeney and The Professionals. The waste land in which the Granadas and Capris were doing handbrake turns in litter, while Bodie and Doyle ran through puddles, is now some of the most valuable real estate in the world and nobody could think what to do with it except film Lewis Collins pouting.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/romania/11307063/Nicolae-Ceausescu-and-Romanias-Christmas-revolution.html
Remember the Notting Hill riots?? Riots?? in Notting Hill?? Now the only thing likely to cause a riot there is the local shops running out of Focaccia...
https://twitter.com/rachel_hump/status/547023003603976192
TBH, I wouldn't be surprised if Simon Danczuk voted UKIP at the GE.
All that gleaming glass in London, all those rotting factories north of Watford...
Manufacturing declined more under Labour 1997-2010, than it did under Fatcher.
Where do they show that?
Samples show:
Unweighted
Yes - 438 - 47.6%
No - 482 - 52.4%
Weighted
Yes - 411 - 44.7%
No - 509 - 55.3%
Which is what the result was.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/December-Scotland-Daily-Record-Scottish-Voting-Intention-ONE.pdf
Thatcher was needed. Like a hole in the head.
She took us from being the sick man of Europe to being the most dynamic economy in Europe, and gave us a quarter of a century of prosperity. Those are the simple facts of the matter.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-alpha-ned/#more-64746
(For those who don't know, Celtic/Rangers games are infamous for causing a spike in police arrests and A&E admissions, both partly for battering female partners. I know, it sounds daft, and it is, but it is what happens.)
Labour thereby wrecked America's economy, by creating an unfit-for-purpose regulatory structure that gave London such a huge advantage America had to copy it to stay in the game. Wrecking America's economy duly wrecked ours as well, and now the b>tches want to be put back in charge so they can do it all over again.
The reason Labour's never said sorry for 1997-2010 is because they're not sorry and they want to have another go and really f>ck the world this time.
"I forgot"
You are Ed Miliband and I claim my 5,000 Roubles.
They couldn't use Lancias because if it had rained they'd have melted faster than the boxes.
Dundee East - SNP vs Labour
Perthshire N - SNP vs Conservative
Of your list I'd go with:
Glasgow N
Glasgow E
(Tho' I'd also be interested to see what happens in Glasgow S & Central as well)
Replace Edinburgh E with Edinburgh S
Replace Cumbernauld with Airdrie
Keep Falkirk
By Dumfries I take it you mean David Mundell's seat rather than Russell Brown's. I'd keep on basis it's only Tory held seat.
Keep Argyll
Gordon instead of Aberdeenshire W
Inverness instead of Caithness
I'd also add:
Ayrshire N
Livingston
Others that would be interesting:
Kilmarnock
Linlithgow
Glenrothes
Aberdeen N
PS. Aren't the Chinese sneaky traitors that only look out for their own race and thus we shouldn't allow them to immigrate? Yet they can be relied upon to financially prop up Mother Russia?
Many 20 somethings do. I tried to explain to one recently that, before Big Bang, the City was far more exclusive and clubby than after Thatcher.
Mrs T made it much easier for Essex boys and comp kids from Wales like me to get into finance.
She hated chinless wonders as much any labour supporter. Maybe more.
Six people feared dead after bin lorry crashes into pedestrians in Glasgow city centre http://dlyr.ec/DMqjgD
In a Labour-led Coalition, Cameron would presumably resign. And I can't see a Tory being willing to go near the Treasury with Ed at the helm. Perhaps it would be:
PM: Miliband
CoE: Balls
HS: Osborne
FS: Hammond
B. Labour lowered corporation tax three times when they were in government. M&M never objected or voted against.
- Labour drifting downwards a few points through losses to Greens, UKIP, Can't Be Bothered
- Kippers drifting back a bit (and differentially, i.e. more of the Con->UKIP switchers than Lab->UKIP switchers returning to the 'home' party)
- A few LibDems switching
- A few Lab->Tory switchers
Taken together, these could easily amount to (say) Lab 30%, Con 36%, which would probably do the trick, depending on the exact places in which these swings happened.
I'm not saying this will happen, but I am saying it is one of a range of perfectly plausible scenarios and is well within the bounds of the kinds of shifts typically seen in the last few months before an election.
In principle the same kinds of shifts could take Labour to a majority, but I think that is much less likely. The net shift over the next few months will be towards the Conservatives IMO; the only question is how big it will be.
Contemplating your girlfriend and your daughter and your bank balance, yes, and long may they all flourish.
But otherwise, it's All Gloom, innit? Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Britain, Europe, America. All horribly, inevitably doomed, each in their own different gruesome way.
By comparison, we lefties here have quite sunny dispositions, as a rule. Life is good fun, and better government is only 4 months away.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bealach_na_Bà
Needless to say, I've walked it. ;-)
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes
That incident in George Square, Glasgow looks bad.
Tremendously windy again.
11 7 13 8 17 17 11 9 9 17 12 10 16 9 7 10
Average 11.4
Final lead 7.1
Of course every election is different, but shifts of several points in five or six months are quite normal.
I lived on the Isle of Dogs for a year in 1992/3. It was a great time to be there, with modern and old abutting: change in progress. It's lost a lot of its character in the last twenty years, which, in many ways, is probably for the best.
Of all the traps to fall into - you made the perfect one.
The Porsche franchise in Newcastle was THE TOP SELLER at one time. And retail space was more expensive on Northumberland St than Oxford St when I was a teenager.
The amazing lack of knowledge of Newcastle as a very prosperous area - and built in the style of Bath seems to be missing from the Down The Pit Leftish mindset who only want to recall Elswick/Scotswood and The Hanging Gibbit pub.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30576857
https://twitter.com/erikbryn/status/545602428939558912
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHKCymOzDcY
UKIP really are a bunch of amateurs....
Likewise, unless Jon Cruddas has replaced Ed Miliband and Ed Balls has been quietly locked away somewhere where he can do no more damage, there's small prospect of a better government than at present, which is not exactly the greatest government in the history of the universe.
So I regret, NPXMP, that you've actually made my life slightly more miserable.
Wow.
Because the Right doesn't own The Mail, Sun, Times, Telegraph, Express etc etc etc?
And last week we had those two terrorist incidents, and the multiple child murder in Australia.
Lots of Porsches sold - to Tories from Hexhamshire and Toon/Sunlun players, no doubt.
Expensive retail space - supply and demand - not enough shops for the population - that's why they built the MetroCentre.
We grew up at the same time in the same place, but somehow have very different perspectives.
(That's also quite clearly an opinion rather than a fact).
Comres 10/12/09 Con Lead 17
Ipsos MORI 13/12/09 Con Lead 17
Of course if you want to cherry pick polls you could say some of the recent Labour leads have been 'outliers'.
More importantly, no-one is suggesting history repeats itself exactly, and that you can therefore predict May 2015 by subtracting X% from the December 2014 scores. It's just that stuff happens, polls shift. That is normal.
Also if you believe that the telegraph is pro Tory you are delusional or haven't read it in the past five years.