It's also pleasing to note that Lord Ashcroft's prompting for the Greens in Brighton Pavilion meant that a 1% lead for Labour the last time that he polled this seat has been converted into a 10% lead for the Greens. Modesty forbids me to mention who drew attention to this oddity in his polling in this seat:
Should his Lordship (or one of his minions) be reading the thread, the seats that it would be really useful to see a prompt for the Greens in are Norwich South and Bristol West.
Well spotted, that would explain the massive change from the last poll. It seems like the people of Brighton Pavilion value the uniqueness of having the only Green MP over their wish for a Labour government at the moment.
The marginals poll also showed the Greens playing a defining part in the results of Warwick & Leamington and South Swindon.
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
Well, I don't know about that. Around 20% of constituents in Broxtowe have just had an expensive-looking hi-gloss "community magazine" from Jason Zadrozny, with delivery paid for to Royal Mail, telling them that he's their candidate for Parliament. He's actually the candidate for Ashfield, and evidently has more campaign funds than he knows what do with.
(As before, there is as yet no LibDem candidate in Broxtowe.)
I notice how TSE was gleefully tweeting that Fargles ratings were on the slide but didn't see the need to mention that Fargles rating was still higher than either Cameron, Clegg or Milipede Minor.
Much as I hate to stick up for trolls, fairs fair he did mention it at the bottom of the header
TSE is a troll? He writes articles for the entire blog. Personally I think that allows him to comment where he wants.
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
Well, I don't know about that. Around 20% of constituents in Broxtowe have just had an expensive-looking hi-gloss "community magazine" from Jason Zadrozny, with delivery paid for to Royal Mail, telling them that he's their candidate for Parliament. He's actually the candidate for Ashfield, and evidently has more campaign funds than he knows what do with.
(As before, there is as yet no LibDem candidate in Broxtowe.)
Mr. Song, he shouldn't be there. A chap incapable of understanding diluting stuff makes it weaker, not stronger, has no business trying to get the NHS to waste taxpayers' money on anti-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
Well, I don't know about that. Around 20% of constituents in Broxtowe have just had an expensive-looking hi-gloss "community magazine" from Jason Zadrozny, with delivery paid for to Royal Mail, telling them that he's their candidate for Parliament. He's actually the candidate for Ashfield, and evidently has more campaign funds than he knows what do with.
(As before, there is as yet no LibDem candidate in Broxtowe.)
Perhaps the 20% of Broxtowe constituents who have received the Jason Zadrozny leaflet are in the 3 wards in Broxtowe BC which are also in Ashfield constituency
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
Well, I don't know about that. Around 20% of constituents in Broxtowe have just had an expensive-looking hi-gloss "community magazine" from Jason Zadrozny, with delivery paid for to Royal Mail, telling them that he's their candidate for Parliament. He's actually the candidate for Ashfield, and evidently has more campaign funds than he knows what do with.
(As before, there is as yet no LibDem candidate in Broxtowe.)
I expect that you are aware of this fiasco of privatisation:
With 200 dermatology vacancies in the country it is fairly easy to vote with ones feet. Still, its an ill wind that blows no good. Leicester has just inherited the Trainees. Bath, Oxford, Derby and Malaysia all have their vacant posts filled!
F1: incidentally, I have backed those bets mentioned below. Put a small sum on Hamilton to beat the 13 wins in a season record at 9, less on Mercedes to win all races at 17 [they'll need some luck, but it's possible] and a tiny sum on Alonso to win in Oz at 15.
There will be at least 1 and possibly 2 more races next season. This season, if Hamilton's car hadn't exploded when in winning or potentially winning positions, he could've had 14 wins.
The biggest threat to Hamilton in that regard is that Rosberg drives too well.
Withdrawal symptoms Morris (ok, ok Mr Dancer)?
You've nailed the 2015 bet - Rosberg at 4.7 wasn't it? Being better than Schumacher is astonishing, and the fact Hamilton has beaten this astonishing prodigy tells me that I was entirely wrong about him - he is a great driver. So better than Schumacher, and losing to Hamilton in the Mercedes team.. if Hamilton wins next year he will actually deserve sports personality of the year. So I've backed Rosberg. However there are so many unknowns in F1 - Maclaren, no chance? - back Rosberg yes, but lay a little Hamilton/
It's also pleasing to note that Lord Ashcroft's prompting for the Greens in Brighton Pavilion meant that a 1% lead for Labour the last time that he polled this seat has been converted into a 10% lead for the Greens. Modesty forbids me to mention who drew attention to this oddity in his polling in this seat:
Should his Lordship (or one of his minions) be reading the thread, the seats that it would be really useful to see a prompt for the Greens in are Norwich South and Bristol West.
Well spotted, that would explain the massive change from the last poll. It seems like the people of Brighton Pavilion value the uniqueness of having the only Green MP over their wish for a Labour government at the moment.
The marginals poll also showed the Greens playing a defining part in the results of Warwick & Leamington and South Swindon.
As I have mentioned before I have many close connections with Brighton Pavilion and people who live there . The Greens locally are now pretty much universally loathed from their bad running of the council and will lose shedloads of seats next May . Caroline Lucas does seem to have avoided much of the flack attached to the Greens locally but the feeling communicated to me is that she will lose next May .
Perhaps the 20% of Broxtowe constituents who have received the Jason Zadrozny leaflet are in the 3 wards in Broxtowe BC which are also in Ashfield constituency
No, they are all in Broxtowe constituency - e.g. Kimberley ward. I never hear from anyone in Ashfield constituency.
I suspect what's happened is that they told Royal Mail to deliver to a whole postcode, not realising half of it isn't theirs.
I'm surprised they are delivering a glossy mag to thousands of people by Royal Mail 4 months ahead anyway. I certainly couldn't afford it.
Perhaps the 20% of Broxtowe constituents who have received the Jason Zadrozny leaflet are in the 3 wards in Broxtowe BC which are also in Ashfield constituency
No, they are all in Broxtowe constituency - e.g. Kimberley ward. I never hear from anyone in Ashfield constituency.
I suspect what's happened is that they told Royal Mail to deliver to a whole postcode, not realising half of it isn't theirs.
I'm surprised they are delivering a glossy mag to thousands of people by Royal Mail 4 months ahead anyway. I certainly couldn't afford it.
Ah Yes , NG16 postcode area includes Eastwood and Greasley in Ashfield constituency and Kimberley in Broxtowe
A great showing by the Tories from a quality pollster ....... is it time, as I suggested recently, to start looking for value in some of those supposedly marginal seats, which ultimately might not prove so? Another couple of polls like this one and those individual constituency odds are likely to change out of sight.
Yes sensible betting - NOT , let's take notice of the one poll this week that we like and ignore the other 6 that we didn't .
Successful betting is all about spotting trends early, especially when those trends are from reliable sources. I understand that you are all bitter and twisted about the mere possibility of a Tory recovery - but get over it, it's going to happen .....Huzzah!
In any case, you might inquire why it took the Unionist parties collectively x decades to do this common sense change at this particular moment in galactic history ... it doesn'[t matter what the SNP rate would have been, the Tories would have undercut it as a matter of principle.
To be fair to the Tories it was never an issue until Gordon Brown lifted the rates and added new bands
Until July 1997:
Up to £60,000 - nil £60-250K - 1% £250-500K - 1.5% Above 500K - 2%
Brown then massively increased them (and, to be fair, Osborne also increased them as well to offset any cost from the reduction in the 50% rate) to such a point that the system needed reform.
The times they are a'changin: An example being that Betfair now have longer odds against a Labour GE majority at 6.4, compared with 5.9 for a Conservative majority.
A great showing by the Tories from a quality pollster ....... is it time, as I suggested recently, to start looking for value in some of those supposedly marginal seats, which ultimately might not prove so? Another couple of polls like this one and those individual constituency odds are likely to change out of sight.
Yes sensible betting - NOT , let's take notice of the one poll this week that we like and ignore the other 6 that we didn't .
Successful betting is all about spotting trends early, especially when those trends are from reliable sources. I understand that you are all bitter and twisted about the mere possibility of a Tory recovery - but get over it, it's going to happen .....Huzzah!
And where was this Tory recovery showing in all the other polls this week ?
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
Can you provide a link to that £78m claim?
It seems very very high.
In fact, I call bullsh1t.
Whether the figure of £78m is right or not it has been widely trailed in most of the media in the last couple of days .
What is really doing for Labour in this poll is not so much any sign of any real surge in support for the Tories, but more a shift away from Labour to other left leaning parties, especially the Greens. A couple of days ago I launched the PUDING Index (Putney Upside Down Indicator Guide) which until recently was showing Labour as having a 1% edge, i.e.: UKIP at 17% - (LD 7% + SNP 3% + Greens 6%) = + 1% This has changed dramatically in this latest IpsosMORI poll to show the Tories now having an 8% advantage: UKIP at 13% - (LD 9% + SNP 3% + Greens 9%) = - 8%
Assuming Stephen Fisher picks up on these latest poll findings, his GE seats projection tomorrow could prove quite interesting.
In any case, you might inquire why it took the Unionist parties collectively x decades to do this common sense change at this particular moment in galactic history ... it doesn'[t matter what the SNP rate would have been, the Tories would have undercut it as a matter of principle.
To be fair to the Tories it was never an issue until Gordon Brown lifted the rates and added new bands
Until July 1997:
Up to £60,000 - nil £60-250K - 1% £250-500K - 1.5% Above 500K - 2%
Brown then massively increased them (and, to be fair, Osborne also increased them as well to offset any cost from the reduction in the 50% rate) to such a point that the system needed reform.
Thanks. 'Never an issue' seems a little strong because of the doorstep increases - but this is interesting comment.
"The LDs are flinging money at E.Dunbartonshire like there's no tomorrow [...]"
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
Well, I don't know about that. Around 20% of constituents in Broxtowe have just had an expensive-looking hi-gloss "community magazine" from Jason Zadrozny, with delivery paid for to Royal Mail, telling them that he's their candidate for Parliament. He's actually the candidate for Ashfield, and evidently has more campaign funds than he knows what do with.
(As before, there is as yet no LibDem candidate in Broxtowe.)
I went to the Parish Council meeting in my town last night. Sad, I know, but I had a grievance to raise, and something to say about local bus services.
Anyway, towards the end of the meeting, and well after the time allowed for the public to ask questions, a young woman arrived. At the end of the meeting she stood up and said she was hoping to replace Brooks Newmark as Conservative candidate, and was touring the Parish Councils.
Only thing is, we're not in Brooks Newmark's constituency! We used to be, but we're in Witham now!
I notice how TSE was gleefully tweeting that Fargles ratings were on the slide but didn't see the need to mention that Fargles rating was still higher than either Cameron, Clegg or Milipede Minor.
Much as I hate to stick up for trolls, fairs fair he did mention it at the bottom of the header
TSE is a troll? He writes articles for the entire blog. Personally I think that allows him to comment where he wants.
Sorry to see that, though I always thought their layout person must be deranged - lots of pages were hard to read because of all the graphics and photos overlaying the text.
Comments
The marginals poll also showed the Greens playing a defining part in the results of Warwick & Leamington and South Swindon.
It doesn't do to cross-examine spies.
(As before, there is as yet no LibDem candidate in Broxtowe.)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-services-cut-in-nottingham-after-doctors-quit-rather-than-work-for-private-firm-9931763.html
With 200 dermatology vacancies in the country it is fairly easy to vote with ones feet. Still, its an ill wind that blows no good. Leicester has just inherited the Trainees. Bath, Oxford, Derby and Malaysia all have their vacant posts filled!
You've nailed the 2015 bet - Rosberg at 4.7 wasn't it? Being better than Schumacher is astonishing, and the fact Hamilton has beaten this astonishing prodigy tells me that I was entirely wrong about him - he is a great driver. So better than Schumacher, and losing to Hamilton in the Mercedes team.. if Hamilton wins next year he will actually deserve sports personality of the year. So I've backed Rosberg. However there are so many unknowns in F1 - Maclaren, no chance? - back Rosberg yes, but lay a little Hamilton/
Con 6.0
Lab 6.6
I suspect what's happened is that they told Royal Mail to deliver to a whole postcode, not realising half of it isn't theirs.
I'm surprised they are delivering a glossy mag to thousands of people by Royal Mail 4 months ahead anyway. I certainly couldn't afford it.
I understand that you are all bitter and twisted about the mere possibility of a Tory recovery - but get over it, it's going to happen .....Huzzah!
Until July 1997:
Up to £60,000 - nil
£60-250K - 1%
£250-500K - 1.5%
Above 500K - 2%
Brown then massively increased them (and, to be fair, Osborne also increased them as well to offset any cost from the reduction in the 50% rate) to such a point that the system needed reform.
An example being that Betfair now have longer odds against a Labour GE majority at 6.4, compared with 5.9 for a Conservative majority.
It seems very very high.
In fact, I call bullsh1t.
A couple of days ago I launched the PUDING Index (Putney Upside Down Indicator Guide) which until recently was showing Labour as having a 1% edge, i.e.:
UKIP at 17% - (LD 7% + SNP 3% + Greens 6%) = + 1%
This has changed dramatically in this latest IpsosMORI poll to show the Tories now having an 8% advantage:
UKIP at 13% - (LD 9% + SNP 3% + Greens 9%) = - 8%
Assuming Stephen Fisher picks up on these latest poll findings, his GE seats projection tomorrow could prove quite interesting.
Anyway, towards the end of the meeting, and well after the time allowed for the public to ask questions, a young woman arrived. At the end of the meeting she stood up and said she was hoping to replace Brooks Newmark as Conservative candidate, and was touring the Parish Councils.
Only thing is, we're not in Brooks Newmark's constituency! We used to be, but we're in Witham now!
...and I can't take much more of a TSE led debate.
UKIP membership passes the 42,000 mark for the first time ever
http://order-order.com/2014/12/18/total-politics-closing-immediately/