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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead
Before the Tories get too excited, this poll sees the polling just over their 1997 nadir, and given Labour are polling close to their 2010 nadir, it could well be that the next general election is a case of the resistible force meeting a moveable object.
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I would decant half of the Green share into the Labour column to give a truer picture.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8x6ng4boek/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Government-Approval-171214.pdf
Guido Fawkes@GuidoFawkes·6 mins6 minutes ago
UPDATE: Tories respond to trained barrister Mark Reckless crowdfunding his small claims defence http://order-order.com/2014/12/18/reckless-crowdfunds-defence-against-tory-legal-claim/ …
TSE - did I see you will be taking time off pre the election to ensure he will be ejected in May? I may liase to tag along one day. Especially as a Tory-free zone here in Bercow land.
EDIT: Also Scotland's "Certain to Vote" figure remains astronomical compared to other regions
Ladbrokes now have a market on exact number of Lib Dem seats.
0 is 50/1
57, which they got in 2010, is 150/1
http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/18/how-many-seats-will-the-lib-dems-win/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/18/conservatives-and-labour-tied/
Cameron's lead over Miliband as best PM is down 4 in the same poll (same trend as in IPSOS-MORI where it's down 6). Basically Tories think Cameron is good, and don't like Miliband, Labour voters think Miliband is good (and I think that's the bit that's gone up) or they don't know, and don't like Cameron. Thus very little scope for Con<->Lab switching for voters who care about leaders.
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 9.4%
Con seat lead 90
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 26.2%
Chance of a Tory majority: 73.8%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
A slight weakening of the strong Tory position from last month, probably just MOE
The figures would imply a Tory majority of about 20 with 335 seats.
http://comresupdates.eu.com/DCJ-32FDT-F21LMD8E11/cr.aspx
The £10 I invested in the SNP there could be my best bet of my betting career. Perhaps not the £200 I put on Labour at 1-2. Nevertheless it's a good position on the seat.
Mr. Crosby, I'd be surprised if that happens. Then again, your prediction was much closer than mine for the 2010 election.
"Ipsos-Mori confirm their status as the New Gold Standard"
There were NINE in the four weeks leading up to Rochester...
Byelection swingback: -0.5% up
Hanretty: 1.7% down
Fisher: 2.5% down
2009-2010 repeat: 3.3% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 9.4% down
We see that L&N is something of an outlier at the moment, although there is some indication of convergence.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2879094/UK-s-North-Sea-oil-industry-close-collapse-warn-experts-oil-price-drops-wider-economy-benefits.html
Probably a Unionist plot.
This Tory is in favour of homeopathy on the NHS!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30533414
It was of course the local association that selected reckless in the first place.
The point about the small claims is that the claim is small. Is Reckless so short of money he cannot stand up in the small claims court to defend himself and has to con money out of people?
http://order-order.com/2014/12/18/ebenezer-grayling-threatens-to-cancel-christmas/
Charles suggests - Support from the other members of the Union to help Scotland in dealing with an external shock (such as a decline in the oil price) could be described as a "union dividend".
I suppose it could but the whole point of the Union is that it is greater than the sum of its parts. Where industries and regions decline, all over the country, the country's taxpayers generally invest in compensating measures.
On the topic.
4% ahead is better than 3% behind, whoever you are. Is there anything to be gleaned other than things are broadly level? Plus - how can 2 polls be so different?
Diluting something does not make it stronger. It's hardly advanced science.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/5007118.stm
Reckless spending of other people's money.
Lab 1.98/1.99
Con 2.06/2.08
I don't think Lab has been odds against since early 2012 - there was a temporary spike on the graph since then but I think that was a "rogue trade".
Much talk about ICM and MORI as far as Lab and Con are concerned but the two polls pretty much net out.
The big moves this week are LD up and UKIP down. The most recent average blob is only based on this week's 7 polls so not a full 15 day period but the moves are significant.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1-aXNoGwZSLOIWziLoqq9rbN3MHg6qezWKbjsAkunw/edit?pli=1#gid=1268197642
"at law or in equity" btw, not "in law or equity".
If anyone defects in January there certainly wouldn't have to be a by-election. Con obviously wouldn't want one but UKIP might - could UKIP move the writ?
If not, it's going to be hard for UKIP to keep centre stage throughout Jan, Feb and Mar.
Look at Rob's graph (previous post) - publicity is key to UKIP's polling strength.
Mind you, every time Grayling's mentioned I think of his response to a question about Dannatt[sp].
I dare say our regular Conservative apologist will be along shortly to tell us that Grayling was quite proper in his action and the UKIP fellow was trying to con the public and behaving disgracefully in accepting an invitation to play carols on the organ.
Froth is already off the Kipper VI.
Look at the downward trajectory in the last month or so
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
The Green's anti-austerity message can't be left unchallenged, it needs standing up to scrutiny as much as the major policies of the other parties do.
'The seat is the most marginal of the 11 held by LibDems in Scotland, and would fall next May on a swing to Labour of just 2.3%.
The SNP, who came fourth in the seat in 2010, would need a swing of 14.1% to win it.
To help avert defeat, the party has hired a full-time campaign manager for the seat, which is now being flooded with out-of-town cash.
Over the last decade, cash donations to the East Dunbartonshire branch recorded by the Electoral Commission averaged around £2000 a year.
However between April and August, donations hit £46,365, with three-quarters of the money coming from donors based in England.'
http://scottishpol.blogspot.co.uk/
It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing.
The ability of Kippers to be ignorant of the things right in front of them, never manages to surprise.
If you turn your screen 90 deg. clockwise, after disabling auto-rotate.
The only thing worse than homeopathic medicine is an acupuncture pillow fight.
As tipped by me here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-cloud-of-unknowing-seats-with-no.html
and here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-1-conservatives-vs.html
Hamilton to beat the current record of 13 wins in a season at 9.... is worth backing.
Mercedes to win every race at 17 may also be worth a look.
Alonso to win in Australia at 15 is an outsider possibly worth considering [McLaren tends to do well in Oz]. Downsides are Mercedes and probably Williams.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-terrified/#more-64595
The Greens will also be pleased that Caroline Lucas is comfortably ahead in Brighton Pavilion
http://paulhutcheon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/political-transparency.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertymarket/11302086/Nicola-Sturgeon-I-will-study-Tory-property-tax-changes.html
"Nicola Sturgeon has promised to carefully consider Tory proposals to halve the SNP’s ten per cent tax on middle-class Scots moving home as estate agents warned it will damage property values."
I must remember always to read the small print.
In any case, you might inquire why it took the Unionist parties collectively x decades to do this common sense change at this particular moment in galactic history ... it doesn'[t matter what the SNP rate would have been, the Tories would have undercut it as a matter of principle.
I see you haven't commented on APD: now that is an example of how public money is now being directed at families who can afford to go on foreign holidays.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/other-parties-battlegrounds-in-november.html
Should his Lordship (or one of his minions) be reading the thread, the seats that it would be really useful to see a prompt for the Greens in are Norwich South and Bristol West.
The SNP rate was far too high at far too low an amount - they will retreat to the more sensible Conservative position.
"It probably indicates that they know their only chance is all guns blazing."
Well, if the Tories are going to spend 78,000,000 (so far, and counting) on the election, it does make sense for the Lib Dems to spend at least a few thousands defending their held seats.
The way that Tory posters on PB talk - and indeed, those of other parties - anybody would think that the Lib Dems are happy to roll over and let themselves be slaughtered.
Since the Lib Dems have vastly smaller financial resources than the Tory Party, the Labour Party and the SNP, it does make sense for them to spend them where they will be most effective in winning seats.
And in the case of Lib Dems, it´s not a matter of "flinging money" - but of using it to greatest effect.
None of the above is mentioned at all on even the BBC Politics home page, let alone the BBC News home page.
In contrast, UKIP winning a by-election will be the number 1 news story.
They may be wrong. More important, there may be a change of heart. It would therefore be unwise to bet shedloads on it happening. But I certainly wouldn't bet shedloads against it.
It is being rationalised. Currently a 15-hour flight to Honolulu, would cost the same APD as a six-hour flight to New York and yet be lower than an eight-hour flight to New Delhi, India, just because it was regarded a US state and APD is based on the distance to the country's capital, rather than the actual destination
We are actually trying to boost trade to Asian economies. Some people argue it should be cut or rationalised even more.
I think it might be argued that public taxes in the era of Gordon Brown were massively and unfairly targeted at ordinary families, not least innocent children. You are looking through the wrong end of an admittedly socialist telescope.
There will be at least 1 and possibly 2 more races next season. This season, if Hamilton's car hadn't exploded when in winning or potentially winning positions, he could've had 14 wins.
The biggest threat to Hamilton in that regard is that Rosberg drives too well.