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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284


    Alternatively can you tell us what is wrong with our domestic science education that people are incapable of feeding themselves when we have falling food prices?

    Back now.
    Much of the "welfare" bill goes on pensions IIRC.
    Too many people are only wages or benefits which are "just enough". If anything goes wrong .....
    That's not suggesting that people shouldn't try to save against a rainy day. The problem is that for some people there have been too many of those.
    Why blame pensioners? I deliberately excluded pensions.
    The welfare bill is 112 billion. We spend huge sums on welfare. Welfare as separate from pensions which are paid from contributions.
    So given 112 billion, why do people need to go to free food banks for tins of baked beans?
    As I said before, too many people are on wages or benefits which are "just enough". If anything goes wrong .....

    That's not suggesting that people shouldn't try to save against a rainy day. The problem is that for some people there have been too many of those.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2014


    Alternatively can you tell us what is wrong with our domestic science education that people are incapable of feeding themselves when we have falling food prices?

    Back now.
    Much of the "welfare" bill goes on pensions IIRC.
    Too many people are only wages or benefits which are "just enough". If anything goes wrong .....
    That's not suggesting that people shouldn't try to save against a rainy day. The problem is that for some people there have been too many of those.
    Why blame pensioners? I deliberately excluded pensions.
    The welfare bill is 112 billion. We spend huge sums on welfare. Welfare as separate from pensions which are paid from contributions.
    So given 112 billion, why do people need to go to free food banks for tins of baked beans?
    Well of that "non pension" welfare bill you've got pension credit & minimum income guarantee (only goes to pensioners). You have Income support (which in part goes to people looking after pensioners), attendance allowance (in home pensioner care), carer's allowance (in part people caring for someone getting attendance allowance).
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Yorkcity said:

    I would have thought this poll reflects concern for many, in regard to how they individually feel about their own prospects for the future.

    The upward trend in personal debt for many, will be day to day running costs.

    Total net lending to individuals (excluding student
    loans) was £2.6 billion in October 2014. Net lending
    has been relatively low since mid-2008, but has
    been on a broadly upward trend since 2013..

    The hangover from Christmas will last some time.
    The reduction in fuel prices should ameliorate some of that.

    However to keep saying to people they are better off, because wage rises are beating inflation, will feel like a sick joke, after the last few years.

    Number cruncher suggests this poll reflects a sampling error.
    Household debt went up significantly under the Labour years but has fallen since the recession. Its back to about 2005 levels (% GPD).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,679


    Alternatively can you tell us what is wrong with our domestic science education that people are incapable of feeding themselves when we have falling food prices?

    Back now.
    Much of the "welfare" bill goes on pensions IIRC.
    Too many people are only wages or benefits which are "just enough". If anything goes wrong .....
    That's not suggesting that people shouldn't try to save against a rainy day. The problem is that for some people there have been too many of those.
    Why blame pensioners? I deliberately excluded pensions.
    The welfare bill is 112 billion. We spend huge sums on welfare. Welfare as separate from pensions which are paid from contributions.
    So given 112 billion, why do people need to go to free food banks for tins of baked beans?
    My understanding is that most people using food banks have been sanctioned by the DWP or are waiting for a decision relating to their entitlements and so have no money.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    So first Nick Griffin, now Tommy Robinson, I'm utterly perplexed why UKIP are attracting the heavyweights of the far right?

    Anyone got any ideas why UKIP are attracting these sorts of people?

    The other three parties looked the other way while rapists abused thousands of children because they were frightened of looking racist?
    Well it's got the evening thread sorted out.
    In all seriousness, it gets a bit boring on here when no ones trolling UKIP or faking moral outrage. Disappointing polls for the big two just mean tumbleweeds or people pretending none of it matters anyway
    To be honest as OGH suggests, we are probably going to be stuck with this until the other side of Valentines Day when the majority of the electorate will start taking notice of the politicians (which won't be good news for Ed) assuming that Events, dear boy Events, don't intervene. (events like the US/EU continuing to poke Russia with a sharp tick pushing Russia too far)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Mr Eagles,

    As a Muslim, or rather ex-Muslim, would you count as an apostate?

    Although with your reputed taste in shoes, they might just be glad to see the back of you.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    So first Nick Griffin, now Tommy Robinson, I'm utterly perplexed why UKIP are attracting the heavyweights of the far right?

    Anyone got any ideas why UKIP are attracting these sorts of people?

    1. UKIP dislike people raping kids.
    2. UKIP dislike public religious ceremonies being disrupted by your buddies.
    Who are my buddies?
    I'd thought you'd bite.

    I am, of course, referring to the Papal Visit in 2010.

    But, equally disgraceful but not directly affecting me, there was the 'welcome' afforded the fallen in Royal Wootton Bassett by members of your ethno-religious group. Now, I opposed the Gulf War too, but there was no need for that.
    Well the arrival of the head of the greatest Paedophile protection network in the world was always going to raise protests, what did you Papists expect?

    On the second part, as someone who isn't religious, I've found the religious protests at military funerals/the fallen both sides of the pond repugnant.
    I'll accept your point about Wootton Bassett, but Tommy Robinson doesn't.

    As for Paedophile protection network, the Tories, Labour Party, the BBC and the British Establishment generally sure are giving us a run for our money, aren't they?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited December 2014
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    As a Muslim, or rather ex-Muslim, would you count as an apostate?

    Although with your reputed taste in shoes, they might just be glad to see the back of you.

    I'm technically still a Muslim, I even went to a Mosque twice this year.

    I even recited the Shahada the other day, I still remembered it, and all the stuff needed to pray.

    But yes, I'm a very bad Muslim.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Audrey

    Noted.

    It was Jan yesterday, now mid Jan. I guess by mid Jan it will be mid Feb?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312



    Well the arrival of the head of the greatest Paedophile protection network in the world was always going to raise protests, what did you Papists expect?

    The Catholic Church has probably the strictest child protection measures of any institution that operates in this country. You don't just need an enhanced CRB there are extensive additional identity checks, an interview and two referees are also needed. Its hard work and puts volunteers off, but the Catholic Church had the courage to admit there was a problem, co-operate with the police and ask Law Lord Lord Nolan to produce the Nolan report to to put robust protection measures in place, and be seen to be doing so. Similar measures are being taken in other parts of the world.

    Meanwhile no living MP has to the best of my knowledge yet been questioned about Westminster Pedo Rings (despite the activities of people including two longstanding now deceased knighted MPs and a now deceased former deputy director of MI6 among others now being widely known).

    It is also now known that all sorts of cover ups were put in place; even to the extent of including D notices being placed on the media according to a reputable newspaper http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/22/media-gagged-westminster-child-abuse-ring

    Compare and contrast.
    Also, of course, the RCC is Worldwide, so will always generate a large figure.

    Comparisons should be done on country by country basis.

    Incidentally, when anyone attacks Catholic Schools in this country and mentions Clerical Child Abuse, I ask for the comparative figures between Catholic Maintained Schools and Community Maintained Schools. They then go very quiet. I could never figure out why they didn't even make the attempt.

    Until Rotherham, that is.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    I would have thought this poll reflects concern for many, in regard to how they individually feel about their own prospects for the future.

    The upward trend in personal debt for many, will be day to day running costs.

    Total net lending to individuals (excluding student
    loans) was £2.6 billion in October 2014. Net lending
    has been relatively low since mid-2008, but has
    been on a broadly upward trend since 2013..

    The hangover from Christmas will last some time.
    The reduction in fuel prices should ameliorate some of that.

    However to keep saying to people they are better off, because wage rises are beating inflation, will feel like a sick joke, after the last few years.

    Number cruncher suggests this poll reflects a sampling error.
    Household debt went up significantly under the Labour years but has fallen since the recession. Its back to about 2005 levels (% GPD).
    It is going up since 2013.
    The next crisis could be car loans in the UK following the US model.

    " Booming U.S. car sales and a push by private equity investors are creating a renaissance in the market for auto loan-backed securities. Corporations like Apple, Google and 3M as well as institutional and insurance-industry investors have been looking for the promise of steady yields in exchange for limited risk.

    But a panoply of investigations into lending practices for so-called subprime, or riskier, borrowers, coupled with concerns about the exits of some auto-finance company investors, have some market observers warning that trouble could lie ahead."

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102049575#.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    http://www.hscic.gov.uk/catalogue/PUB13648/Obes-phys-acti-diet-eng-2014-rep.pdf

    So if at least a quarter of all adults in the UK are obese - say, 15 million, and 8 million are starving, we standard size ones will become a rarity soon.

    And strangely, the porkers are better represented in the lower income streams.

    I blame the Tories.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    So first Nick Griffin, now Tommy Robinson, I'm utterly perplexed why UKIP are attracting the heavyweights of the far right?

    Anyone got any ideas why UKIP are attracting these sorts of people?

    1. UKIP dislike people raping kids.
    2. UKIP dislike public religious ceremonies being disrupted by your buddies.
    Who are my buddies?
    I'd thought you'd bite.

    I am, of course, referring to the Papal Visit in 2010.

    But, equally disgraceful but not directly affecting me, there was the 'welcome' afforded the fallen in Royal Wootton Bassett by members of your ethno-religious group. Now, I opposed the Gulf War too, but there was no need for that.
    Well the arrival of the head of the greatest Paedophile protection network in the world was always going to raise protests, what did you Papists expect?
    Foolish TSE, the real villains are not the child abusers or indeed the man who we have documentary proof of encouraging a global cover up of child abuse, or indeed the organisation that then promoted that man to the head role in the org knowing full well he'd organised a cover up.

    The real villans are militant atheist who say that child abuse is wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Seems to be the moderate middle is moving back to the LDs over concern with Labour's economic management and ability to balance the books and the extent of the Tory proposed cuts to public services. With the LDs now level with UKIP in vote share (and likely a clear lead on seats) and with double the UK voteshare of the SNP and Greens, Clegg could well hold the balance of power again
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    surbiton said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    "What evidence is there of VI shifting much during the campaign?"

    Why the Tories aren't doing better is a mystery. My guess is that voters suspect they're wolves in sheep's clothing

    That and the fact they are a bit rubbish. Pain for no real gain. Promised to eradicate the deficit, delivered sweet FA. Five wasted years.
    A bit rubbish, unless the electorate are as ignorant as you.
    The tories promised to eliminate the structural deficit. Its cutting spending to do that.
    The government made a clear choice in the face of the Euro crisis to delay its programme for 2 years. If you are not happy about that what more would you cut?
    Tories used to take responsibility. In this parliament they have blamed the opposition, the Euro and even the weather. Never themselves.

    The simple fact is they promised to cut the deficit, they rubbished alternative plans as being inadequate. The fact they have failed to match the plans they rubbished should be hung around their neck during the election campaign.

    They promised tom cut the structural deficit and they refused to ply on further cuts to meet that when the euro zone walked into crisis. Personally I do not criticise the govt for doing the right thing.
    As it is it is cutting its managed expenditure. It is 40.5% of GDP this year, having come down from 45.3% in 2009-10. According to the OBR it needs to come down to 36% of GDP by 2018-19 to eliminate the budget deficit. Thats the whole deficit and give a small surplus. To me given the changes we have already seen that is a comforting situation. I'm a tory not a socialist so I see no worries in voting tory again.
    There are 4 million people going hungry in the UK because of government cuts and malnutrition has increased by 87% in a year.What on earth is the point of having a £23 billion surplus on the current account in 3 years time when maybe 8 million aren't eating?Do you call this success?

    Since Miliband walloped the poor with his Green energy policies under the previous Labour government, he can share the blame for empty tummies. And he's done it again with the unforeseen results of his threat to control power prices.
    Controlling power prices = people going hungry ! Only a PBTory could come up with something like this. Barmy !
    A real collectors' item.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Did someone say ICM was the Gold Standard.

    If so great news for LAB.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Mr Eagles,

    "But yes, I'm a very bad Muslim."

    Don't be so hard on yourself, ISIL and the Taliban are very bad Muslims. Take it up again and you'll be a moderating influence on the bad ones.
  • New Thread
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Did someone say ICM was the Gold Standard.

    If so great news for LAB.

    The fuel price drop might be the new gold standard.

    Not for Aberdeen or SNP Economics, or the Osborne proposed, which will never see the light of day fuel stabilizer.
    If elected it will probably be stabilized with a VAT rise.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2014
    Just watched PMQ's

    .......... I mean even the left leaning people here must have seen Ed was absolutely drilled into the ground. He just was ......he really was.

    FFS Even BenM must have seen that ....

    Please... Pretty Please with icing on the top and then those little glittery stars shit my duaghter always insisted in spraying on our remnants of the cakes we had tried to make when they came out of the oven burnt............ you have to realise


    Eds a dud and not only that a dangerous dud...
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Corals going with the "significant bet from the Windsor area" gambit confirms it's almost certainly a PR manufactured non-story, as that's a line that every bookie ever has used in connection with royalty betting in the past. Still, it;s got them in the papers, so "job done" as far as they will be concerned.

    A few people have jumped on the bandwagon by betting the Queen's Message to be top xmas day TV show at 100/1
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Corals going with the "significant bet from the Windsor area" gambit confirms it's almost certainly a PR manufactured non-story, as that's a line that every bookie ever has used in connection with royalty betting in the past. Still, it;s got them in the papers, so "job done" as far as they will be concerned.

    A few people have jumped on the bandwagon by betting the Queen's Message to be top xmas day TV show at 100/1
This discussion has been closed.