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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

Guardian ICM phone poll makes grim reading for the Tories. But the Lib Dems are on the up. pic.twitter.com/vepvSt8G2r

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chestnut

So, polls for the Guardian and Independent say a swing back to the Lib Dems.

NickPalmer

I'm a bit suspicious of the size of the changes, but it certainly seems as though the Tories have slipped a bit since the Autumn Statement. This may relate to the Tory emphasis put on the economy - as Gordon discovered, if you become noted for saying that the economy is doing really well, you get blamed if people think it's started to do badly.

woody662

Looks like a push poll question on the autumn statement to me. Certainly doesn't tally with what I've found canvassing on the doorsteps in my marginal against last times figures. Maybe they are all lying to me.

Sunil_Prasannan

Where's yer crossover now?

LOL!

OblitusSumMe

NickPalmer said:

I'm a bit suspicious of the size of the changes, but it certainly seems as though the Tories have slipped a bit since the Autumn Statement.

That statement is a bit hopeful, I think.

In the period between the Rochester and Strood by-election and the Autumn statement [roughly a fortnight] there were three polls that gave Labour a 5% lead. In the fortnight following the Autumn statement there have been two polls that give Labour a 5% lead.

I don't see any evidence of a change.

Bobajob_

Anti Tory tactical vote coming home.

As forecast.

kle4

Not quite proof of trend of course, but didn't Tory polling drop before 2010 when they hinted about being honest about the need to cut and show restraint as well? I don't think people like being told more cuts are coming (even though that will happen to some extent whatever happens)

Labour may contrive a way not to win a majority, but the Tories have so little hope of even managing that it seems.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if many people simultaneously suggest we need to cut deeply and raise taxes, while at the same time decrying any plan to do one or both of those as too much. People, eh?

OldKingCole

Looks like two of the big three approaching their 1997 figures, with Labour well below.

kle4

chestnut said:

So, polls for the Guardian and Independent say a swing back to the Lib Dems.

If that becomes a trend, I'd be really interested to know why now - good news for them has not seemed to help over the years, being in or out of the news has not helped over the years, the passage of time has only made things worse up to now, and they don't even have the same reasoning for the potential Green rise.

Bobajob_

When is crossover/swingback expected to occur? I would be keen to hear from Rod Crosby.

OblitusSumMe

Bobajob_ said:

Anti Tory tactical vote coming home.

As forecast.

Why would anti-Tory tactical voters have told ICM last month that they were going to vote Tory?

I've long suspected that the polls are vulnerable to intentional trolling on the part of the respondents contacted, but if I were trolling a pollster right now then I would tell them I was voting for Respect...

Bobajob_

The thread on the day of the autumn statement makes entertaining reading for the PB Lefties and the PB Kippers.

OblitusSumMe

OldKingCole said:

Looks like two of the big three approaching their 1997 figures, with Labour well below.

If all three of the big three parties come close [within 1%] of their 1997 vote shares then I will eat my hat - and I have more than one to choose from!

OldKingCole

OblitusSumMe said:

OldKingCole said:

Looks like two of the big three approaching their 1997 figures, with Labour well below.

If all three of the big three parties come close [within 1%] of their 1997 vote shares then I will eat my hat - and I have more than one to choose from!

No, I don't think all three will, either. Tory ca 30%, LibDem ca 17% but Lab 33 or so %. Nate showing, UKIP 12 or so %.

Indigo

OblitusSumMe said:

I've long suspected that the polls are vulnerable to intentional trolling on the part of the respondents contacted, but if I were trolling a pollster right now then I would tell them I was voting for Respect...

I have long wondered why we seem prepared to believe that people will vote for a different candidate in a by-election to "send a message" expecting them to swing back to their main party, and at the same time don't expect them to lie to a pollster in the same timescale to "send a message", and the later doesn't even involve getting off the sofa to vote!

Scott_P

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

taffys

Horrible poll for the conservatives.

isam

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

What was their price?

There is no way they have laid much of that.

Bobajob_

The silence on here is deafening

RochdalePioneers

Oh dear oh dear. 28% on the Gold Standard. If 2012 was the year of the Omnishambles Budget, how do we describe the 2014 Autumn Statement? When the Chancellor has to go to war with his own OBR because it had the temerity to report the facts you know its not gone quite as well as had been intended.....

DavidL

My only consolation on this poll is that my bet with isam about whether the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is looking better and better.

See that Lazarus? Complete amateur.

Sunil_Prasannan

Strange that both YouGovs this week have LDs down on 6, whereas the other three pollsters have them on double figures.

BenM

Woohoo!

taffys

Has this poll moved the seat betting market much??

CarlottaVance

Bobajob_ said:

The silence on here is deafening

And you are adding to it.....why not go back to child tax credits and how it hurts 'average' families......

isam

DavidL said:

My only consolation on this poll is that my bet with isam about whether the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is looking better and better.

See that Lazarus? Complete amateur.

Yes.. what was that bet? You had £50@4/6?

numbercruncher

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Strange that both YouGovs this week have LDs down on 6, whereas the other three pollsters have them on double figures.

Here's some analysis of why the polls vary so much on the Lib Dems: http://t.co/Ia2JNQXO3D

3% swing from CON to LIB is outside the MoE, but out of line with what other polls have been showing... Too bad ICM only polls monthly, because I'd quite like to see the next one already!

Artist

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Strange that both YouGovs this week have LDs down on 6, whereas the other three pollsters have them on double figures.

YouGov seem to have a problem with too many Greens and not enough Lib Dems.

Alistair

Ah yes, I can see this poll was held back because it was super damaging to Labour.

BenM

Good to see the centre left easily outpolling the reactionary right.

CarlottaVance

Bobajob_ said:

Anti Tory tactical vote coming home.

As forecast.

How do you "tactically vote" in an opinion poll?

Sunil_Prasannan

BenM said:

Good to see the centre left easily outpolling the reactionary right.

For old time's sake!

COA 42%
LAB 33%

OblitusSumMe

Indigo said:

OblitusSumMe said:

I've long suspected that the polls are vulnerable to intentional trolling on the part of the respondents contacted, but if I were trolling a pollster right now then I would tell them I was voting for Respect...

I have long wondered why we seem prepared to believe that people will vote for a different candidate in a by-election to "send a message" expecting them to swing back to their main party, and at the same time don't expect them to lie to a pollster in the same timescale to "send a message", and the later doesn't even involve getting off the sofa to vote!

Well, I think you are partly misinterpreting by-elections there. One of the big effects is differential turnout.

Also: words matter. The wording in the polling question is about a general election. Maybe that has an effect.

Dadge

CarlottaVance said:

Bobajob_ said:

Anti Tory tactical vote coming home.

As forecast.

How do you "tactically vote" in an opinion poll?

The same way as you do in an election, except with less effort.

Sunil_Prasannan

numbercruncher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Strange that both YouGovs this week have LDs down on 6, whereas the other three pollsters have them on double figures.

Here's some analysis of why the polls vary so much on the Lib Dems: http://t.co/Ia2JNQXO3D

3% swing from CON to LIB is outside the MoE, but out of line with what other polls have been showing... Too bad ICM only polls monthly, because I'd quite like to see the next one already!

Thanks for the article, interesting stuff!

DavidL

isam said:

DavidL said:

My only consolation on this poll is that my bet with isam about whether the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP is looking better and better.

See that Lazarus? Complete amateur.

Yes.. what was that bet? You had £50@4/6?

Yes. I think antifrank has twice as much but he is one of those greedy lawyer types that Malcolm likes to go on about. It is looking a lot better for me than it has for most of the last year.

OblitusSumMe

BenM said:

Good to see the centre left easily outpolling the reactionary right.

About one-third of that "centre-left" has been propping up two-thirds of the "reactionary right" in Government these past several years.

Perhaps your aggregation of the parties is... meaningless?

Bobajob_

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling: Ozzy has a poor record of delivering statements to the house. Most of them unravel within 24 hours. You could argue that this was worse than the fabled omnishambles budget as it is closer to the election. Certainly the IFS critique cut through and proved damaging for the government, after sycophantic coverage from much of the press.

surbiton

So the Autumn Statement did the trick ?

kle4

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

That would seem quite out of character, though I guess with other monarchs increasingly doing it and even a Pope doing it, it is at least conceivable HM might reconsider her position.

AlastairMeeks

Thank goodness we were saved a thread on AV.

Obviously bad news for the Conservatives, but it's a single poll (even if it is from the gold standard). The Lib Dem thing is potentially interesting.

kle4

surbiton said:

So the Autumn Statement did the trick ?

I actually would appreciate the Tories' tougher position, but given how spectacularly they failed on their 2010 plan, if someone like me was minded to like the new plan in theory, why would they assume it will happen? No doubt it will be revised as people object in any case. Or would, if they had a chance of winning a majority.

peter_from_putney

A truly shocking poll for the Tories from the Rolls Royce of the business.

Surprisingly Sporting's GE Seats spread for the Blues is unchanged today at 279 - 285.

Is this possibly the right time to sell?

You decide, but remember spread-betting is high risk.

CarlottaVance

Dadge said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bobajob_ said:

Anti Tory tactical vote coming home.

As forecast.

How do you "tactically vote" in an opinion poll?

The same way as you do in an election, except with less effort.

Oh dear.

Yes, you can tactically vote in a constituency, or a constituency poll.....but its far from clear how you tactically vote in a general poll....since its far from clear who you would be voting against.....

OblitusSumMe

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

surbiton

Bobajob_ said:

The silence on here is deafening

The PBTories have had an attack of the "Writer's Block". I am sure Dr. Osborne will come up with another wheeze and they will be cured.

SandyRentool

It looks like Nick Clegg did the right thing keeping as far away from the Autumn Statement as possible.

Maybe not an Omnishables Mk II, but George Osborne may have been less than near-perfect this time round. Plus, this time there is only 5 months to change the narrative.

kle4

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

If no effect then a shame for them that they need to actively improve (edit: by quite a bit), in addition to Labour doing worse. No effect does them as little good as negative effect.

CarlottaVance

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

That would seem quite out of character, though I guess with other monarchs increasingly doing it and even a Pope doing it, it is at least conceivable HM might reconsider her position.

Much as the queen and the Duke of Edinburgh richly deserve retirement, in whatever time they have left together - it strikes me as entirely out of character. I'm sure there is an appropriate channel for such an act (PM in HoC would be my guess), but I strongly doubt her Christmas Broadcast is one of them.

On the other hand, Alan Bennett's novella The Uncommon Reader has a brilliant ending.....

Bobajob_

Sandy

Less than five months.

The election is 20 weeks tomorrow

surbiton

The Tories are facing a three pronged attack. Clearly, as election approaches, some Lib Dems are returning. UKIP causing Mayhem on the right flank. And, Labour taking lots and lots of seats in England.

OblitusSumMe

On Liberal support I would caution against becoming too excited. In November Ashcroft put them on 10% two polls in a row, the second coincident with that month's ICM/Guardian which had them on 11%.

Indeed, the ICM/Guardian has had the yellows in double figures in every poll this year, including 14% in January, 13% in May and 12% in March, April, July and August. If ICM were paid to poll as often as YouGov we would have a very different picture of the state of the polling. Worth considering.

TheScreamingEagles

I'm expecting the Ipsos Mori VI to be released tomorrow.

surbiton

So now we know the secret of the Lib Dem success. Stay off the TV screen. Don't remind the people that they are in bed with the Tories.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm expecting the Ipsos Mori VI to be released tomorrow.

Tories likely to be behind in that too?

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm expecting the Ipsos Mori VI to be released tomorrow.

Tories likely to be behind in that too?

Well they were 3 points ahead last time.

OblitusSumMe

kle4 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

If no effect then a shame for them that they need to actively improve (edit: by quite a bit), in addition to Labour doing worse. No effect does them as little good as negative effect.

Yes, at the time of the Conferences, when it became apparent that the lead was narrowing - perhaps because of Miliband's speech par excellence, or perhaps because of the defections to UKIP - I said that two more doses of the same movement would put the Tories into an election-winning position.

I identified the Autumn Statement and the election campaign itself as the two opportunities for the Tories to engineer that movement. On the face of it, they've fluffed the first, but Bobajob is still hopelessly wrong with his interpretation...

Plato

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Good graphic: the "reach" of parties across the left-right spectrum, by @Chris_Challis justqcharley.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-re… pic.twitter.com/Edmbo83ONN

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Thank goodness we were saved a thread on AV.

Obviously bad news for the Conservatives, but it's a single poll (even if it is from the gold standard). The Lib Dem thing is potentially interesting.

I can still use it for the evening thread.

Unless anything major happens.

OblitusSumMe

Bobajob_ said:

Sandy

Less than five months.

The election is 20 weeks tomorrow

So it will be roughly a new moon on election day?

Will that sway the voters one way or another?

How does the werewolf vote break down?

kle4

surbiton said:

The Tories are facing a three pronged attack. Clearly, as election approaches, some Lib Dems are returning. UKIP causing Mayhem on the right flank. And, Labour taking lots and lots of seats in England.

Quite. What surprises me is how lacking in confidence many Labour supporters are. Now granted, in my usual habitats Labour supporters are pretty rare so the few open and professed Labour people I know are perhaps less optimistic given the envelopment of Tory support they see everyday, but visiting family in more Labour friendly areas whenever politics comes up some Labour supporters I know just seem so despondent about their chances, even though they think the LDs will do even worse than polls predict.

Anecdotal stuff I know, and Labour should be walking this rather than just being more likely to win, but I'm still surprised there's not more optimism about the result. Ed M does not have that many fans, but he isn't so bad as to erase all the factors working in Labour's favour.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Thank goodness we were saved a thread on AV.

Obviously bad news for the Conservatives, but it's a single poll (even if it is from the gold standard). The Lib Dem thing is potentially interesting.

I can still use it for the evening thread.

Unless anything major happens.

In which case, I'm rooting for Russia to invade Poland.

Plato

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Great chart of public sector job losses & private sector job gains by @TomMcTague dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2… pic.twitter.com/k1yN1Y4uGG

Pong

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

That would seem quite out of character, though I guess with other monarchs increasingly doing it and even a Pope doing it, it is at least conceivable HM might reconsider her position.

hmm. 1/2 for queeny to step down by the end of the year?

I'll lay at that price

kle4

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Sandy

Less than five months.

The election is 20 weeks tomorrow

So it will be roughly a new moon on election day?

Will that sway the voters one way or another?

How does the werewolf vote break down?

They trend toward the LDs/Greens, an offshoot of the weirdy beardys.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Thank goodness we were saved a thread on AV.

Obviously bad news for the Conservatives, but it's a single poll (even if it is from the gold standard). The Lib Dem thing is potentially interesting.

I can still use it for the evening thread.

Unless anything major happens.

In which case, I'm rooting for Russia to invade Poland.

Actually the thread was about the economy which if I had published before the ICM poll would have made me look brilliantly perceptive.

Sunil_Prasannan

Lab 2.6% ahead on simple average of this week's five polls so far.

A "part-ELBOW" without ICM (tables not published) has them 1.8% ahead (simple average 2.0% without ICM).

kle4

Plato said:

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Good graphic: the "reach" of parties across the left-right spectrum, by @Chris_Challis justqcharley.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-re… pic.twitter.com/Edmbo83ONN

Hmm,

There is a big gap right of centre, between Liberals and Conservatives, exactly where most UK voters actually rate themselves

A wonder both are not doing better then really.

Though the ending of the piece is a bit odd,

It is currently almost impossible for a new party to gather support. Will this ever change?

As we've seen the answer is it is not impossible for a new party, it just takes a long time or the right circumstances.

Alistair

Plato said:

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Great chart of public sector job losses & private sector job gains by @TomMcTague dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2… pic.twitter.com/k1yN1Y4uGG

Would be interested to know if that's corrected for the English colleges re-classification and the banks nationalisation/de-nationalisation

Flightpath

OblitusSumMe said:

kle4 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

If no effect then a shame for them that they need to actively improve (edit: by quite a bit), in addition to Labour doing worse. No effect does them as little good as negative effect.

Yes, at the time of the Conferences, when it became apparent that the lead was narrowing - perhaps because of Miliband's speech par excellence, or perhaps because of the defections to UKIP - I said that two more doses of the same movement would put the Tories into an election-winning position.

I identified the Autumn Statement and the election campaign itself as the two opportunities for the Tories to engineer that movement. On the face of it, they've fluffed the first, but Bobajob is still hopelessly wrong with his interpretation...

The tory share has not jumped up since the Autumn Statement but it has not moved the other way.
Should it have moved up? That is, because of the Statement? The Govt were doing the economically competent thing. If the govt are percieved as suddenly cutting too deeply then what was the alternative? Spend more? Are the public wanting a govt to spend more and not cut the deficit? Where does the deficit come from? Part comes from economic activity. But part comes from spending. So what is the electorate saying.

If it is saying it does not want economic competence then indeed the tories are stuffed.
If it is worrried about bogus accusations about 1930 levels of spending and lies from Vince Cable then we may have an answer. It is not the Statement - it is the politics.

TheScreamingEagles

Normally the ICM phone poll fieldwork is three days from Friday and Sunday inclusive.

This one took five days, Friday through to Tuesday.

That assumes they must have had a really poor response rate to have had to go into a fourth and fifth day to get the 1000 strong response.

megalomaniacs4u

TheScreamingEagles said:

Normally the ICM phone poll fieldwork is three days from Friday and Sunday inclusive.

This one took five days, Friday through to Tuesday.

That assumes they must have had a really poor response rate to have had to go into a fourth and fifth day to get the 1000 strong response.

xmas shopping season?

FrancisUrquhart

The lawyer for the families of Iraqi's "abused" by British soldiers was on R5 an hour ago...f##king disgrace.

He admitted that it became clear that things weren't as claimed ages ago, but he was still pushing the line that shouting at a prisoner or banging a tent peg on a table was abuse etc.

And tried to come up with all these excuses why people "mis-remembered" what happened to them.

Also pushing this total BS line that other prisoners could definitely believe that it was the prisoners shouting as they were being executed / tortured. Utter utter BS.

TheWatcher

Bobajob_ said:

The thread on the day of the autumn statement makes entertaining reading for the PB Lefties and the PB Kippers.

Why would anyone bother re-reading tens of posts from the multiple bobajobs?

taffys

That assumes they must have had a really poor response rate to have had to go into a fourth and fifth day to get the 1000 strong response.

Are you saying this poll might be a 'rogue'

kle4

Flightpath said:

OblitusSumMe said:

kle4 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

If no effect then a shame for them that they need to actively improve (edit: by quite a bit), in addition to Labour doing worse. No effect does them as little good as negative effect.

Yes, at the time of the Conferences, when it became apparent that the lead was narrowing - perhaps because of Miliband's speech par excellence, or perhaps because of the defections to UKIP - I said that two more doses of the same movement would put the Tories into an election-winning position.

I identified the Autumn Statement and the election campaign itself as the two opportunities for the Tories to engineer that movement. On the face of it, they've fluffed the first, but Bobajob is still hopelessly wrong with his interpretation...

If it is saying it does not want economic competence then indeed the tories are stuffed.
If it is worrried about bogus accusations about 1930 levels of spending and lies from Vince Cable then we may have an answer. It is not the Statement - it is the politics.

People want economic competence. We just don't really know what that entails. If things are doing ok, people won't want to see as much cutting even if they say they want to see some, as they assume competent cutting will not affect them in any way somehow. If thingsare still not ok, the Tories failed in their first 5 years, why give them more? Ed has tried to pre-empt the same thing happening to him by saying he needs 10 years to fix the Tory mess, but I don't think that will work.

Pulpstar

Pong said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

That would seem quite out of character, though I guess with other monarchs increasingly doing it and even a Pope doing it, it is at least conceivable HM might reconsider her position.

hmm. 1/2 for queeny to step down by the end of the year?

I'll lay at that price

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542999/Windsor-wager-halts-royal-bets-200-stake-placed-Queen-abdicate-year-sees-bookmaker-suspend-market.html

Coral have taken a staggeringly huge wager of.... TWO HUNDRED POUNDS.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Normally the ICM phone poll fieldwork is three days from Friday and Sunday inclusive.

This one took five days, Friday through to Tuesday.

That assumes they must have had a really poor response rate to have had to go into a fourth and fifth day to get the 1000 strong response.

Tories on holiday?

Sunil_Prasannan

taffys said:

That assumes they must have had a really poor response rate to have had to go into a fourth and fifth day to get the 1000 strong response.

Are you saying this poll might be a 'rogue'

More Wolverine than Rogue?

Oliver_PB

I wonder if the public finally catching on to the fiscal irresponsibility of the government.

TheWatcher

Flightpath said:

OblitusSumMe said:

kle4 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

If no effect then a shame for them that they need to actively improve (edit: by quite a bit), in addition to Labour doing worse. No effect does them as little good as negative effect.

Yes, at the time of the Conferences, when it became apparent that the lead was narrowing - perhaps because of Miliband's speech par excellence, or perhaps because of the defections to UKIP - I said that two more doses of the same movement would put the Tories into an election-winning position.

I identified the Autumn Statement and the election campaign itself as the two opportunities for the Tories to engineer that movement. On the face of it, they've fluffed the first, but Bobajob is still hopelessly wrong with his interpretation...

The tory share has not jumped up since the Autumn Statement but it has not moved the other way.
Should it have moved up? That is, because of the Statement? The Govt were doing the economically competent thing. If the govt are percieved as suddenly cutting too deeply then what was the alternative? Spend more? Are the public wanting a govt to spend more and not cut the deficit? Where does the deficit come from? Part comes from economic activity. But part comes from spending. So what is the electorate saying.

If it is saying it does not want economic competence then indeed the tories are stuffed.
If it is worrried about bogus accusations about 1930 levels of spending and lies from Vince Cable then we may have an answer. It is not the Statement - it is the politics.

Perhaps the electorate has no clue whatsoever as to what might happen if the money runs out.
Maybe the message will only sink in when it does, and massive and immediate cuts happen.

kle4

Oliver_PB said:

I wonder if the public finally catching on to the fiscal irresponsibility of the government.

I would have thought people start off assuming any government is fiscally irresponsible and need to be convinced otherwise, rather than finding any actual proof of the irresponsibility being required.

dr_spyn

Plato said:

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Good graphic: the "reach" of parties across the left-right spectrum, by @Chris_Challis justqcharley.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-re… pic.twitter.com/Edmbo83ONN

I wonder how a plot on a radar chart would highlight where parties differ on a range of issues.

taffys

People want economic competence.

People want low taxes, balanced budgets AND great services.

Nobody has the guts to tell them that's impossible.

perdix

Leading questions in the Guardian poll. Who'da believed it?

Sean_F

I don't think the Autumn Statement made any difference one way or the other. The Tories have been averaging 32% for weeks, 1-2% behind Labour. Of course, that means you get occasional polls putting Labour 5% ahead, or showing the Tories nudging ahead.

This poll is dreadful for the Conservatives, but it's only one poll, and other polls conducted at the same time have been better for them.

What's unusual is the very low combined figure for Con and UKIP, at 42%, compared to an average of 47%.

HurstLlama

Alistair said:

Plato said:

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Great chart of public sector job losses & private sector job gains by @TomMcTague dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2… pic.twitter.com/k1yN1Y4uGG

Would be interested to know if that's corrected for the English colleges re-classification and the banks nationalisation/de-nationalisation

Even if it doesn't those numbers are too small to affect the overall picture. That said the figures themselves do contain a lot of hidden non-changes. For example a charity I did some work for has taken over a lot of staff from the public sector. They are the same people doing the same job and, indirectly, still being paid by the taxpayer (the charity is almost 100% government funded) they just no longer fall under the public sector label. That reclassification has been happening quite a lot (see the defence sector for more examples), but quite to what extent I wouldn't like to guess, but it is still less than the number of new jobs created.

As an aside the idea or reclassifying public servants as private sector employees was put forward by Sir Arnold in Yes Prime Minister back in the 1980s. I am sure that there are people in government (civil service and elected) now who regard that programme not as a political satire but as a series of instructional videos.

Pulpstar

I see "Scribbler" is getting free advertising from the Daily Mail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2876736/Obscene-cards-sully-message-Christmas-Sexual-profane-anti-Christian-messages-display-children.html

I'll probably go to card factory.

kle4

TheWatcher said:

Flightpath said:

OblitusSumMe said:

kle4 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Bobajob_ said:

Interesting to see the effect of the Autumn Statement on the polling

What effect?

In the fortnight before the Autumn statement, the Tories recorded shares of 27% and 28% in the opinion polls.

In the fortnight after the Autumn statement, the Tories have recorded shares of 28% and 29% [twice] in the opinion polls.

I say again. What effect?

If no effect then a shame for them that they need to actively improve (edit: by quite a bit), in addition to Labour doing worse. No effect does them as little good as negative effect.

Yes, at the time of the Conferences, when it became apparent that the lead was narrowing - perhaps because of Miliband's speech par excellence, or perhaps because of the defections to UKIP - I said that two more doses of the same movement would put the Tories into an election-winning position.

I identified the Autumn Statement and the election campaign itself as the two opportunities for the Tories to engineer that movement. On the face of it, they've fluffed the first, but Bobajob is still hopelessly wrong with his interpretation...

The tory share has not jumped up since the Autumn Statement but it has not moved the other way.
Should it have moved up? That is, because of the Statement? The Govt were doing the economically competent thing. If the govt are percieved as suddenly cutting too deeply then what was the alternative? Spend more? Are the public wanting a govt to spend more and not cut the deficit? Where does the deficit come from? Part comes from economic activity. But part comes from spending. So what is the electorate saying.

If it is saying it does not want economic competence then indeed the tories are stuffed.
If it is worrried about bogus accusations about 1930 levels of spending and lies from Vince Cable then we may have an answer. It is not the Statement - it is the politics.

Perhaps the electorate has no clue whatsoever as to what might happen if the money runs out.
Maybe the message will only sink in when it does, and massive and immediate cuts happen.

Might be necessary some day. But if there's one area our politicians and government thrive, it is muddling along and finding stopgap solutions, so some moment of epiphany for the electorate on the subject is probably some way off. I mean, most Greeks still support retaining the Euro don't they, which is a resilient opinion given you'd have expected a reaction, fair or not, against it given what has happened.

BenM

taffys said:

People want economic competence.

People want low taxes, balanced budgets AND great services.

Nobody has the guts to tell them that's impossible.

People don't give two hoots for balanced budgets.

perdix

FrancisUrquhart said:

The lawyer for the families of Iraqi's "abused" by British soldiers was on R5 an hour ago...f##king disgrace.

He admitted that it became clear that things weren't as claimed ages ago, but he was still pushing the line that shouting at a prisoner or banging a tent peg on a table was abuse etc.

And tried to come up with all these excuses why people "mis-remembered" what happened to them.

Also pushing this total BS line that other prisoners could definitely believe that it was the prisoners shouting as they were being executed / tortured. Utter utter BS.

We have too many parasitic lawyers in this country. Time for them to do some useful work like digging ditches.

dr_spyn

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Blimey. @gordonrayner says Bookies Coral has suspended betting on Queen abdicating in her Christmas message after rash of bets

That would seem quite out of character, though I guess with other monarchs increasingly doing it and even a Pope doing it, it is at least conceivable HM might reconsider her position.

hmm. 1/2 for queeny to step down by the end of the year?

I'll lay at that price

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542999/Windsor-wager-halts-royal-bets-200-stake-placed-Queen-abdicate-year-sees-bookmaker-suspend-market.html

Coral have taken a staggeringly huge wager of.... TWO HUNDRED POUNDS.

An elderly man wearing an Admiral's uniform was seen entering several bookmaker's.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

The lawyer for the families of Iraqi's "abused" by British soldiers was on R5 an hour ago...f##king disgrace.

He admitted that it became clear that things weren't as claimed ages ago, but he was still pushing the line that shouting at a prisoner or banging a tent peg on a table was abuse etc.

And tried to come up with all these excuses why people "mis-remembered" what happened to them.

Also pushing this total BS line that other prisoners could definitely believe that it was the prisoners shouting as they were being executed / tortured. Utter utter BS.

He'd better be pro-bono.

richardDodd

Darn it...missed Robot Reeves..I love a good laugh in the afternoons

Bobajob_

Watcher

One might equally ask why they would want to read endless posts from you obsessing about my alter egos!

I could bring Scout and Fett back at some point, if you are missing them!

TheScreamingEagles

The Tories are suing the traitorous pig dog defector.

BenM

OblitusSumMe said:

I identified the Autumn Statement and the election campaign itself as the two opportunities for the Tories to engineer that movement. On the face of it, they've fluffed the first, but Bobajob is still hopelessly wrong with his interpretation...

What evidence is there of VI shifting much during the campaign?

Wasn't the lesson of 2010 that even including Cleggasm the polls reverted to the position they were in at the start of the campaign?

I might be wrong here.

HortenceWithering

Ah yes, don't like the findings = rubbish the poll

TheScreamingEagles

http://order-order.com/2014/12/17/tories-to-sue-mark-reckless/

Sunil_Prasannan

richardDodd said:

Darn it...missed Robot Reeves..I love a good laugh in the afternoons

Rachel Reeves? Where??