The proportion of people who think the country’s economy will improve over the next year has slumped to the lowest level since July 2013, found pollsters Ipsos MORI.
That what happens when you have an opposition talking down the economy as hard as it can, its going to "triple dip!", no, no, wait a minute, you're cutting "too far, too fast!", no, no, just a second "its flatlining!", hang on a sec, you're not cutting too fast you're cutting "fast and too hard", actually they aren't really sure what is happening with the economy, but whatever its doing, they are sure its doing it unfairly!
You will be delighted to know, that over Christmas, a thread should be going up, which compares the current political climate to the Battle of Zama (and the Second Punic War in general)
I have long been of the view during this Parliament that tactical voting and the passage of time would see the Liberals recover by the election, perhaps to as high as the low teens in national vote share. Combined with disproportionately losing votes in seats that they don't currently hold, and I could envisage them retaining comfortably more than half of their seats.
It still might happen, maybe. All the latest polls from ICM, Ashcroft, YouGov and Populus agree that 2010 Liberals are disproportionately likely to reply "don't know" when asked who they will vote for in a general election today.
Of course, some of the pollsters allocate a proportion of these voters to the Liberals in their headline scores, but it is the sort of thing that makes a recovery as the election approaches plausible - and in particular more likely in those seats where a reluctant vote for the Liberals may save a sitting Liberal MP.
There is, though, something of a taxi-style scenario that is also plausible. Firstly, we note that the Liberals lost most of their seats in the Scottish Parliament election of 2011, retaining two of the constituency seats. Secondly, and potentially more worryingly, we note the decline in the Liberal vote that followed the Clegg/Farage European election debates earlier this year.
As a lefty I do, of course, dutifully despise Clegg for his cowardly collaboration with the Conservatives. And yet, I admire him for the courageous move to debate with Farage before the European elections on the uncompromising position of being "The Party of In". It's just such a shame that it was an abject failure - not just in the European elections themselves (fifth in the national vote, 10 out of 11 seats lost), but also sending their vote share in the opinion polls falling from their previously steady 10% to 8%.
If Nick Clegg takes the podium as Liberal leader in election debates next spring it is not entirely implausible that it could push the Liberal national vote share down even further, testing the 5% level.
I still think that TSE's bet with Neil is a certain loser. Surely they won't poll fewer votes than the Greens...
How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?
On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...
"I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."
Duty is not affected by the changes (although I bet the temptation to add a couple of pence a litre would have been severe if they had anticipated anything like this) so it will only be the VAT element. On a fall of 20p per litre that will be roughly 4p. But as long as we spend the savings on other VATable products he will get it back.
Although, of course, the North Sea tax take will be lower. As the UK is a substantial net importer of oil and gas, the overall impact to the economy will be positive.
Agreed. It is depressing that the lunacy and fantasy elements of the Independence campaign which have been exposed by this seems to be having no impact on SNP popularity. There seems little doubt that this very aggressive attack on marginal oil production by the Saudis will have seriously adverse consequences for north sea investment and employment for some years to come.
Tories are worse than the whinging lefties, just cannot stand the SNP popularity when they are hated throughout the country, LOL. Get a heart and some compassion and people might dislike you lot a bit less, some decent politicians would also be an advantage.
One thing that the current oil price shows is that there really is no rush to exploit whatever reserves Britain has that can be obtained by fracking. Surely we want to extract it at a time when we can get the best possible price for it?
Unconvinced fracking will be appropriate for us given our population density, certainly on any large scale.
Mr. Eagles, one shudders at the prospect of the countless historical errors you shall make.
Incidentally, there's a reference (very minor, as it's in modern day England) to Hannibal in Saxon & Khan. If the second story featuring them gets the green light, that'll contain a reference to the Queen of Bithynia.
It's harder writing about modern day things than fictional or historical ones. Dragons are much more interesting than checking what towns are within the M4 corridor.
How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?
On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...
"I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."
Duty is not affected by the changes (although I bet the temptation to add a couple of pence a litre would have been severe if they had anticipated anything like this) so it will only be the VAT element. On a fall of 20p per litre that will be roughly 4p. But as long as we spend the savings on other VATable products he will get it back.
Although, of course, the North Sea tax take will be lower. As the UK is a substantial net importer of oil and gas, the overall impact to the economy will be positive.
Agreed. It is depressing that the lunacy and fantasy elements of the Independence campaign which have been exposed by this seems to be having no impact on SNP popularity. There seems little doubt that this very aggressive attack on marginal oil production by the Saudis will have seriously adverse consequences for north sea investment and employment for some years to come.
Tories are worse than the whinging lefties, just cannot stand the SNP popularity when they are hated throughout the country, LOL. Get a heart and some compassion and people might dislike you lot a bit less, some decent politicians would also be an advantage.
I have plenty of compassion for you and other deluded souls Malcolm. Plenty.
Nevertheless, the US uses 16m barrels a day of oil, and only produces 10m, so the country is a clear benificiary.
Unlike Russia.
Cost of production matters.
Operating cashflows at Gazprom and the like barely covered capex at $110 oil.
Those companies now have the choice : cut capex and allow production to fall, or borrow more, at increasingly high interest rates.
As mentioned yesterday, industry view is that the aim was to drop the price to <$80 which puts 90% of the frackers out of business and then let it recover to around $80 for the next few years without letting the frackers back in.</p>
Do they imagine that fracking technology is not improving and reducing costs day on day ?
Fracking companies are, in the main, highly leveraged as they gobbled up subsidies to expand rapidly on the assumption that oil prices would be high forever. There is going to be a reckoning amongst current frackers and that will be banks much more leery about lending to fracking concerns going forward.
It is really satisfying to type fracking.
The question is what, if anything, the US will do to bailouts them out?
Given the amount of temporary jobs ..... sales staff, and in these times packers and drivers, as well as postal workers, I’m not too surprised.
I always wonder why we compare employment stats with the previous month, quarter and so on, rather than with the same period last year.
I think last year unemployment was 7.6% its now 6%. I am not sure we could expect it to fall much below 5% anyway. JSA figure is at about 900,000. It would be expecting a lot for it to fall below 500,000. I think thats normally considered 'full employment' IIRC.
Allegations of torture and murder, made against British soldiers by former Iraqi prisoners, are "wholly without foundation" a major investigation has concluded.
The Al-Sweady Inquiry, which has cost the taxpayer £25m and taken five years, found accusations of war crimes were "entirely the product of deliberate lies, reckless speculation and ingrained hostility".
Why does every single investigation cost so much moolah ?
I have long been of the view during this Parliament that tactical voting and the passage of time would see the Liberals recover by the election, perhaps to as high as the low teens in national vote share. Combined with disproportionately losing votes in seats that they don't currently hold, and I could envisage them retaining comfortably more than half of their seats.
It still might happen, maybe. All the latest polls from ICM, Ashcroft, YouGov and Populus agree that 2010 Liberals are disproportionately likely to reply "don't know" when asked who they will vote for in a general election today.
Of course, some of the pollsters allocate a proportion of these voters to the Liberals in their headline scores, but it is the sort of thing that makes a recovery as the election approaches plausible - and in particular more likely in those seats where a reluctant vote for the Liberals may save a sitting Liberal MP.
There is, though, something of a taxi-style scenario that is also plausible. Firstly, we note that the Liberals lost most of their seats in the Scottish Parliament election of 2011, retaining two of the constituency seats. Secondly, and potentially more worryingly, we note the decline in the Liberal vote that followed the Clegg/Farage European election debates earlier this year.
As a lefty I do, of course, dutifully despise Clegg for his cowardly collaboration with the Conservatives. And yet, I admire him for the courageous move to debate with Farage before the European elections on the uncompromising position of being "The Party of In". It's just such a shame that it was an abject failure - not just in the European elections themselves (fifth in the national vote, 10 out of 11 seats lost), but also sending their vote share in the opinion polls falling from their previously steady 10% to 8%.
If Nick Clegg takes the podium as Liberal leader in election debates next spring it is not entirely implausible that it could push the Liberal national vote share down even further, testing the 5% level.
I still think that TSE's bet with Neil is a certain loser. Surely they won't poll fewer votes than the Greens...
Apart from the strange misuderatnding which leads you to refer to the Liberal Party (http://www.liberal.org.uk, 0 seats in Parliament) rather than the Liberal Democrats (http://www.libdems.org.uk, 57 seats at the last GE) I agfree. I have long thought that Clegg should have stood down long ago, and in any event should do so immediately after Christmas.
How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?
On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...
"I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."
Duty is not affected by the changes (although I bet the temptation to add a couple of pence a litre would have been severe if they had anticipated anything like this) so it will only be the VAT element. On a fall of 20p per litre that will be roughly 4p. But as long as we spend the savings on other VATable products he will get it back.
Although, of course, the North Sea tax take will be lower. As the UK is a substantial net importer of oil and gas, the overall impact to the economy will be positive.
Agreed. It is depressing that the lunacy and fantasy elements of the Independence campaign which have been exposed by this seems to be having no impact on SNP popularity. There seems little doubt that this very aggressive attack on marginal oil production by the Saudis will have seriously adverse consequences for north sea investment and employment for some years to come.
Tories are worse than the whinging lefties, just cannot stand the SNP popularity when they are hated throughout the country, LOL. Get a heart and some compassion and people might dislike you lot a bit less, some decent politicians would also be an advantage.
I have plenty of compassion for you and other deluded souls Malcolm. Plenty.
LOL, you would have the last pound out my pocket David, and have my grandchildren up chimneys if you could a) find a decent politician to join the Tories , b) persuade more than a taxi full of people to vote for you. Where in Edinburgh is Ma belles, I am going over there later.
Given the amount of temporary jobs ..... sales staff, and in these times packers and drivers, as well as postal workers, I’m not too surprised.
I always wonder why we compare employment stats with the previous month, quarter and so on, rather than with the same period last year.
I think last year unemployment was 7.6% its now 6%. I am not sure we could expect it to fall much below 5% anyway. JSA figure is at about 900,000. It would be expecting a lot for it to fall below 500,000. I think thats normally considered 'full employment' IIRC.
I’ve already eaten some humble pie on this. I agree that tradionally an unemployment rate of under 5% is regarded as full employment since at that sort of rate those unemployed at snapshot time are likely not to have been so long, and will find employment shortly afterwards. There’s always going to be an amount of churn. Actually, much lower, and employers are either going have to increase wages or get people at the same rates from “elsewhere”!
There's not much to say about the Greens. I don't think they will win any more MPs. They have a fight on to save Lucas in Brighton.
If they do really well then they will increase their vote share, perhaps even to match that of UKIP*, they will save a few more deposits, elect some more councillors and, with a following wind, come second in one of Norwich South and Bristol West.
One thing that the current oil price shows is that there really is no rush to exploit whatever reserves Britain has that can be obtained by fracking. Surely we want to extract it at a time when we can get the best possible price for it?
As clearly evidenced by the superb husbanding of North Sea oil the correct thing to do is to make sure peak volumes are pumped out when prices are at their very lowest. Only in that way can the nations resources be fully utilised for the best of the country.
" I have long thought that Clegg should have stood down long ago, and in any event should do so immediately after Christmas."
To what point or purpose, Mr Cole? How will Clegg resigning change anything?
In practice, Mr Llama, as far as Government is concerned, I would expect not too much. However there’s a perception that at best he’s an unlucky general, and someone else is needed.
A bit like the current position of the England cricket team!
" I have long thought that Clegg should have stood down long ago, and in any event should do so immediately after Christmas."
To what point or purpose, Mr Cole? How will Clegg resigning change anything?
In practice, Mr Llama, as far as Government is concerned, I would expect not too much. However there’s a perception that at best he’s an unlucky general, and someone else is needed.
A bit like the current position of the England cricket team!
I think Clegg gets the better deal, I am sure there is a nice warm office waiting for him somewhere in the European Commission, nice expense account, lots of champagne lunches, hot and cold running limousines... has to be better than occasional requests to be a guest of Question of Sport.
Given the amount of temporary jobs ..... sales staff, and in these times packers and drivers, as well as postal workers, I’m not too surprised.
I always wonder why we compare employment stats with the previous month, quarter and so on, rather than with the same period last year.
I think last year unemployment was 7.6% its now 6%. I am not sure we could expect it to fall much below 5% anyway. JSA figure is at about 900,000. It would be expecting a lot for it to fall below 500,000. I think thats normally considered 'full employment' IIRC.
I’ve already eaten some humble pie on this. I agree that tradionally an unemployment rate of under 5% is regarded as full employment since at that sort of rate those unemployed at snapshot time are likely not to have been so long, and will find employment shortly afterwards. There’s always going to be an amount of churn. Actually, much lower, and employers are either going have to increase wages or get people at the same rates from “elsewhere”!
The figure of 5% as full employment is one of some age, I find reference to it as such in the Atllee cabinet papers from the late 1940s. However, the situation as regards people out of work has changed a lot in the intervening 70 years. There are now lots more people on out of work benefits than purely those claiming what used to be called unemployment benefit and we have far more married women in the workforce today than we did when it was TUC policy to keep them out of it.
So I am not convinced that the official unemployment stats of today actually represent the true situation and I am certain that the old idea of 5% unemployed equals full employment. A better measure may be the economically inactive of working age.
‘The idea that, you know, ISIL is somehow spawned by any particular religion, frankly, it’s probably even less true than saying that Catholicism spawned the IRA.’
- Tony Abbott, Prime Minister of Australia, speaking today
I'm guest editing PB for the rest of today, and I need the Ipsos-Mori VI numbers, or the afternoon thread will be on one of the following
1) AV
2) Scottish Independence
3) Trolling UKIP
I'm hoping you combine all four: "The Mori numbers show that under AV in an independent Scotland Ukip would have even fewer than the one seat they are set to win at the GE."
Whether this is true or not is largely irrelevant, you might as well just write it.
Mr. Indigo, he has a point. ISIS is renowned for its deadly Methodist and Jewish divisions.
Mr. Ajob, just because something isn't news to most people doesn't mean it doesn't matter. A recent stat suggested 60% of SMEs were unaware of the VAT idiocy from the EU. That doesn't mean it's unimportant.
Labour on NHS=Wales + Mid Staffs, Labour on Cost of living=falling inflation, low oil prices, wages now outstripping inflation. Overall Labour = stuffed
FPT @Marf "Needless to say I was only quoting (and poking fun at) 'Bongo bongo land' UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom, who was mocked for his dinosaur ways and for using the term .... and funnily enough, I used the term 'poofters' in the cartoon (as a joke) BEFORE South Basildon's latest casualty, Kerry Smith's outburst. All this is grist for the mill for any cartoonist. To be fair, though, I ought to do a Labour Map of the World and a Tory Map of the World, too.
"The world is so nuts - don't you love it?"
Sorry I couldn't post last night - Wifi issues!! But I have to second everyone else who expressed support for your brilliant cartoons and your delightful sense of humour , Marf!
A recent stat suggested 60% of SMEs were unaware of the VAT idiocy from the EU. That doesn't mean it's unimportant.
Indeed. Hopefully a large number of them are members of the FSB, and when HMRC come calling they will reach for their complementary tax and legal protection insurances, and give them a good seeing to.
‘The point I keep making is that the ISIL death cult has nothing to do with any religion, any real religion. It has nothing to do with any particular community. It is something to which sick individuals succumb.’
That is right, ladies and gentlemen. If you or I suffer from a seasonal cold this winter we must be careful it does not develop into full-blown ISIL. Otherwise before we know it we will find ourselves holding innocent people hostage and gunning them down in chocolate shops.
He seems to be a bit desperate for some reason, apparently telling whoppers in his speech earlier according to the SMH:
NSW police say they have no records of Martin Place siege gunman Man Haron Monis ever holding a gun licence.
This is despite the Prime Minister Tony Abbott asserting in a press conference earlier that Monis, killed by police in a gun battle after a 16-hour siege, had been allowed to legally own weapons.
There's not much to say about the Greens. I don't think they will win any more MPs. They have a fight on to save Lucas in Brighton.
If they do really well then they will increase their vote share, perhaps even to match that of UKIP*, they will save a few more deposits, elect some more councillors and, with a following wind, come second in one of Norwich South and Bristol West.
* In 2010.
Given that the watermelons start from such a low base, they would need a huge tornado to come second in Bristol West. LDs had 13 votes to each 1 for the Greens, Labour 7 for each Green vote.
One of the Green Councillors has just stepped down from the City Council's Cabinet.
Bennett helpfully suggested that Airbus, Rolls-Royce should move out of aerospace and into some ill defined sectors which are eco-friendly. Great to see her suggesting that firms with significant competitive advantages in their industries are told to give them up. Won't win them much support for that.
Can't have arrived at the celestial city via New Street Station.
They jumped the gun a wee bit, the station is still a mess - but getting there! Tram tracks already have been laid in front of the New Street entrance.
Bennett helpfully suggested that Airbus, Rolls-Royce should move out of aerospace and into some ill defined sectors which are eco-friendly. Great to see her suggesting that firms with significant competitive advantages in their industries are told to give them up. Won't win them much support for that.
IN202 The development of a sustainable zero carbon industrial infrastructure as a basis for a sustainable zero carbon society. This will free the UK economy from a reliance on endless growth in the production of commodities and financial transactions.
IN203 Industrial production will be based on social needs rather than the maximisation of profit and ever increasing consumption. It will aim to maximise quality of life for all within both environmental limits and availability of employment.
IN205 Democratically accountable industry: to their workforces, to the communities in which they operate and to wider society as a whole. Therefore, markets should have a role as servants to society (but not as owners and masters). Trades Unions, Cooperatives and community ownership all have a role in democratising control over production and socially-aware entrepreneurship can bring about benign change. International exchange of people, goods and services can be benign under appropriate governance.
"Less than 1% of overstaying immigrants left Britain under flagship scheme, report says
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, publishes another devastating report on the Home Office's immigration measures
Fewer than one per cent of immigrants who illegally overstayed in Britain have left the country after being chased up by a flagship Home Office scheme, a new report has revealed.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders, said only 884 immigrants from a pool of 120,545 departed Britain voluntarily after being confronted by a private contractor - or 0.73 per cent of the total.
The firm, Capita, was hired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, in October 2012 to crack down on the massive pool of overstayers, whose visas had expired and should have gone home rather than continuing to reside here.
Mr Vine said it amounted to "poor performance" which had over-estimated the migrants' willingness to leave and Capita's "ability to persuade them"
Good afternoon comrades (for the benefit of Sunil) and colleagues.
Is there an election in 2015?
2nd glossly leaflet from the Right Honourable and Noble Viscount this week.
2015 Calendar from our SNP representative at Holyrood.
All I was looking for are Christmas cards and cheques in the post (subscription renewal time at Clan Sutherland).
Do some people still take Comedy Resolution seriously? Bit like believing anything written by Polly Toynbee in the Guardian which doesn't involve wine and Tuscan villas.
"Less than 1% of overstaying immigrants left Britain under flagship scheme, report says
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, publishes another devastating report on the Home Office's immigration measures
Fewer than one per cent of immigrants who illegally overstayed in Britain have left the country after being chased up by a flagship Home Office scheme, a new report has revealed.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders, said only 884 immigrants from a pool of 120,545 departed Britain voluntarily after being confronted by a private contractor - or 0.73 per cent of the total.
The firm, Capita, was hired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, in October 2012 to crack down on the massive pool of overstayers, whose visas had expired and should have gone home rather than continuing to reside here.
Mr Vine said it amounted to "poor performance" which had over-estimated the migrants' willingness to leave and Capita's "ability to persuade them"
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·2 mins2 minutes ago Prime Minister confirms he is happy to see additional £7.5Bn rise in energy bills and tax at time householders sturgeon to keep warm #pmqs
Good afternoon comrades (for the benefit of Sunil) and colleagues.
Is there an election in 2015?
2nd glossly leaflet from the Right Honourable and Noble Viscount this week.
2015 Calendar from our SNP representative at Holyrood.
All I was looking for are Christmas cards and cheques in the post (subscription renewal time at Clan Sutherland).
Do some people still take Comedy Resolution seriously? Bit like believing anything written by Polly Toynbee in the Guardian which doesn't involve wine and Tuscan villas.
Good afternoon, Comrade Connery Easterross!
"It's been over a week since the last [GB] poll to show a Tory lead"
"Less than 1% of overstaying immigrants left Britain under flagship scheme, report says
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, publishes another devastating report on the Home Office's immigration measures
Fewer than one per cent of immigrants who illegally overstayed in Britain have left the country after being chased up by a flagship Home Office scheme, a new report has revealed.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders, said only 884 immigrants from a pool of 120,545 departed Britain voluntarily after being confronted by a private contractor - or 0.73 per cent of the total.
The firm, Capita, was hired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, in October 2012 to crack down on the massive pool of overstayers, whose visas had expired and should have gone home rather than continuing to reside here.
Mr Vine said it amounted to "poor performance" which had over-estimated the migrants' willingness to leave and Capita's "ability to persuade them"
Is the Home Office capable of doing anything efficiently?
If you don't really believe in something I suppose it is harder to do the job well.. The Conservatives either seem complacent and lax on immigration (in this case and the net migration figures) or over zealous and nasty (withdrawing benefits from the poorest immigrants)
Seems like there is no love lost between Vine and May. He reckons she has been supressing bad immigration stats for some time
"Less than 1% of overstaying immigrants left Britain under flagship scheme, report says
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, publishes another devastating report on the Home Office's immigration measures
Fewer than one per cent of immigrants who illegally overstayed in Britain have left the country after being chased up by a flagship Home Office scheme, a new report has revealed.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders, said only 884 immigrants from a pool of 120,545 departed Britain voluntarily after being confronted by a private contractor - or 0.73 per cent of the total.
The firm, Capita, was hired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, in October 2012 to crack down on the massive pool of overstayers, whose visas had expired and should have gone home rather than continuing to reside here.
Mr Vine said it amounted to "poor performance" which had over-estimated the migrants' willingness to leave and Capita's "ability to persuade them"
"Less than 1% of overstaying immigrants left Britain under flagship scheme, report says
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, publishes another devastating report on the Home Office's immigration measures
Fewer than one per cent of immigrants who illegally overstayed in Britain have left the country after being chased up by a flagship Home Office scheme, a new report has revealed.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders, said only 884 immigrants from a pool of 120,545 departed Britain voluntarily after being confronted by a private contractor - or 0.73 per cent of the total.
The firm, Capita, was hired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, in October 2012 to crack down on the massive pool of overstayers, whose visas had expired and should have gone home rather than continuing to reside here.
Mr Vine said it amounted to "poor performance" which had over-estimated the migrants' willingness to leave and Capita's "ability to persuade them"
Is the Home Office capable of doing anything efficiently?
If you don't really believe in something I suppose it is harder to do the job well.. The Conservatives either seem complacent and lax on immigration (in this case and the net migration figures) or over zealous and nasty (withdrawing benefits from the poorest immigrants)
Seems like there is no love lost between Vine and May. He reckons she has been supressing bad immigration stats for some time
"There's a lot we need to do in this party of ours. Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies. You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."
Sorry to raise this again, but it seems selling ad space on your website could be covered by the new EU VAT idiocy (which I think would affect pb.com and may affect the sites of those who post here often).
So it seems the law *can* be more stupid than I thought it was.
If that's true, then it seems after 1 January 2015 if a Frenchman clicks an ad link on your website, you'll have to register for VAT in France.
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·2 mins2 minutes ago Prime Minister confirms he is happy to see additional £7.5Bn rise in energy bills and tax at time householders sturgeon to keep warm #pmqs
" I have long thought that Clegg should have stood down long ago, and in any event should do so immediately after Christmas."
To what point or purpose, Mr Cole? How will Clegg resigning change anything?
In practice, Mr Llama, as far as Government is concerned, I would expect not too much. However there’s a perception that at best he’s an unlucky general, and someone else is needed.
A bit like the current position of the England cricket team!
I think Clegg gets the better deal, I am sure there is a nice warm office waiting for him somewhere in the European Commission, nice expense account, lots of champagne lunches, hot and cold running limousines... has to be better than occasional requests to be a guest of Question of Sport.
Cook has a annual lambing season to look forward to. And harvests!
‘The point I keep making is that the ISIL death cult has nothing to do with any religion, any real religion. It has nothing to do with any particular community. It is something to which sick individuals succumb.’
That is right, ladies and gentlemen. If you or I suffer from a seasonal cold this winter we must be careful it does not develop into full-blown ISIL. Otherwise before we know it we will find ourselves holding innocent people hostage and gunning them down in chocolate shops.
He seems to be a bit desperate for some reason, apparently telling whoppers in his speech earlier according to the SMH:
It hardly seems to make sense comparing thick people succumbing to a cult as the same as catching a cold. But here you must remember that you are not quoting 'the spectator' you are quoting 'Douglas Murray', one of the more self opinionated graduates of Eton. Someone with his self assumed brain-the-size-of-a-planet ought to be able to do better than that. In this anniversary of 1914 we should remember good honest christian folk descending into hysteria and shooting and hanging innocent Belgian women as they invaded that sad country.
Murray pronounces his grand opinions from all the experience of any 35 year old English graduate, who has 'never had a proper job'. He was busily defending neo conservatism at the ripe old age of 25. Murray hates all muslims. He should just admit it and so should you.
Sounds like you'll be affected by the VAT nonsense if you sell it to an individual, but if you use Google ads you should be ok. I think. Strongly advise checking it out for yourself if you're worried.
Murray pronounces his grand opinions from all the experience of any 35 year old English graduate, who has 'never had a proper job'. He was busily defending neo conservatism at the ripe old age of 25. Murray hates all muslims. He should just admit it and so should you.
Plumbing depths of bullshit and mindless insults even for you. Do you feel ISIL isn't an Islamic cult then ? Come on, lets hear your theory, I am sure we all want a laugh.
On low inflation - this makes it a convenient time to increase VAT. The last increase to VAT added about 1.9% to the inflation rate. With the inflation rate at ~1% the temporary boost to inflation an increase in VAT creates wouldn't take it to a level that would frighten the horses.
Sorry to raise this again, but it seems selling ad space on your website could be covered by the new EU VAT idiocy (which I think would affect pb.com and may affect the sites of those who post here often).
So it seems the law *can* be more stupid than I thought it was.
If that's true, then it seems after 1 January 2015 if a Frenchman clicks an ad link on your website, you'll have to register for VAT in France.
Typically you don't sell ads directly. You have an arrangement with a third party that re-sells space on your website, and then pays you.
Google Adsense is the dominant option here. EU publishers would have a contract with Google Ireland.
Sorry to raise this again, but it seems selling ad space on your website could be covered by the new EU VAT idiocy (which I think would affect pb.com and may affect the sites of those who post here often).
So it seems the law *can* be more stupid than I thought it was.
If that's true, then it seems after 1 January 2015 if a Frenchman clicks an ad link on your website, you'll have to register for VAT in France.
No - Google deal with it. Create Space and Amazon and Kindle Direct deal with books.
The way out for this if probably for the EU to make it clear and legally binding that online platforms and payment providers take the record keeping and correct tax-charging legal responsibility. Kindle seem able to do it for ebooks. My understanding is that the UK can unilaterally suspend the implimentation of this if they want to. It would make sense until the likes of Paypal get given the responsibility.
The list of online platforms I have seen is - Etsy, Folksy, Craftsy, Apple, Google Play, E-Junkie, Big Cartel, Shopify, Easy Digital Downloads, WooCommerce and Amazon – and payment providers – like Paypal, Stripe, Worldpay, IntuitPay and Google Wallet.
It may be that the issue is with the definition of 'on line platform' which as i understand it is what the EU use I have read that Clickbank ('a privately held online marketplace for digital information products'), has been charging VAT to EU customers for a few years. If you look at their advice it says ''Vendors are not required to file any returns with the EC for sales made through ClickBank. ClickBank, acting as the retailer of your product or service, must comply with the Directive. We handle all compliance requirements. We determine if VAT applies, and at what rate. We then collect the tax, file a return with each of the 15 countries in the EC, pay the tax, and handle any foreign currency exchange issues.''
Note thats an older Directive but it seems not impossible .
I use paypal a little bit to buy off ebay. And indeed I 'paypaled' some money to a Portuguese individual, not a company, to rent an apartment for a holiday only the other week. It was all done on line. Whether the VAT is more or less it seems fair to me that as she is in Portugal and the apartment is in Portugal and her bank account is in Portugal and she is Portuguese, that I should pay Portuguese VAT if I have to.
Populus, ComRes and ICM all have Lib Dems on double figures so far this week.
I wonder why. Is it just Christmas come early for Clegg?
Possibly because they are saying that the tories are going to create Armageddon with their alleged spending plans. This may be clever in terms of saving seats (?) but terminal in staying in government.
Comments
1) AV
2) Scottish Independence
3) Trolling UKIP
Mr. Eagles, surely 4) The Battle of Trebia?
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/62695000/jpg/_62695879_balls.jpg
I have long been of the view during this Parliament that tactical voting and the passage of time would see the Liberals recover by the election, perhaps to as high as the low teens in national vote share. Combined with disproportionately losing votes in seats that they don't currently hold, and I could envisage them retaining comfortably more than half of their seats.
It still might happen, maybe. All the latest polls from ICM, Ashcroft, YouGov and Populus agree that 2010 Liberals are disproportionately likely to reply "don't know" when asked who they will vote for in a general election today.
Of course, some of the pollsters allocate a proportion of these voters to the Liberals in their headline scores, but it is the sort of thing that makes a recovery as the election approaches plausible - and in particular more likely in those seats where a reluctant vote for the Liberals may save a sitting Liberal MP.
There is, though, something of a taxi-style scenario that is also plausible. Firstly, we note that the Liberals lost most of their seats in the Scottish Parliament election of 2011, retaining two of the constituency seats. Secondly, and potentially more worryingly, we note the decline in the Liberal vote that followed the Clegg/Farage European election debates earlier this year.
As a lefty I do, of course, dutifully despise Clegg for his cowardly collaboration with the Conservatives. And yet, I admire him for the courageous move to debate with Farage before the European elections on the uncompromising position of being "The Party of In". It's just such a shame that it was an abject failure - not just in the European elections themselves (fifth in the national vote, 10 out of 11 seats lost), but also sending their vote share in the opinion polls falling from their previously steady 10% to 8%.
If Nick Clegg takes the podium as Liberal leader in election debates next spring it is not entirely implausible that it could push the Liberal national vote share down even further, testing the 5% level.
I still think that TSE's bet with Neil is a certain loser. Surely they won't poll fewer votes than the Greens...
Anyway a moot point now.
Incidentally, there's a reference (very minor, as it's in modern day England) to Hannibal in Saxon & Khan. If the second story featuring them gets the green light, that'll contain a reference to the Queen of Bithynia.
It's harder writing about modern day things than fictional or historical ones. Dragons are much more interesting than checking what towns are within the M4 corridor.
@DouglasCarswell
Wonder who wrote "FO" on my Commons prayer card? Sure they meant well, eh.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B5Dc8T0IYAAQ12R.jpg
" I have long thought that Clegg should have stood down long ago, and in any event should do so immediately after Christmas."
To what point or purpose, Mr Cole? How will Clegg resigning change anything?
Where in Edinburgh is Ma belles, I am going over there later.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30514538
I agree that tradionally an unemployment rate of under 5% is regarded as full employment since at that sort of rate those unemployed at snapshot time are likely not to have been so long, and will find employment shortly afterwards. There’s always going to be an amount of churn.
Actually, much lower, and employers are either going have to increase wages or get people at the same rates from “elsewhere”!
There's not much to say about the Greens. I don't think they will win any more MPs. They have a fight on to save Lucas in Brighton.
If they do really well then they will increase their vote share, perhaps even to match that of UKIP*, they will save a few more deposits, elect some more councillors and, with a following wind, come second in one of Norwich South and Bristol West.
* In 2010.
A bit like the current position of the England cricket team!
So I am not convinced that the official unemployment stats of today actually represent the true situation and I am certain that the old idea of 5% unemployed equals full employment. A better measure may be the economically inactive of working age.
You have missed the most likely option - that, as with most things PB gets pointlessly excited about, it will make eff all difference
‘The idea that, you know, ISIL is somehow spawned by any particular religion, frankly, it’s probably even less true than saying that Catholicism spawned the IRA.’
- Tony Abbott, Prime Minister of Australia, speaking today
Whether this is true or not is largely irrelevant, you might as well just write it.
Mr. Ajob, just because something isn't news to most people doesn't mean it doesn't matter. A recent stat suggested 60% of SMEs were unaware of the VAT idiocy from the EU. That doesn't mean it's unimportant.
"Needless to say I was only quoting (and poking fun at) 'Bongo bongo land' UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom, who was mocked for his dinosaur ways and for using the term .... and funnily enough, I used the term 'poofters' in the cartoon (as a joke) BEFORE South Basildon's latest casualty, Kerry Smith's outburst. All this is grist for the mill for any cartoonist. To be fair, though, I ought to do a Labour Map of the World and a Tory Map of the World, too.
"The world is so nuts - don't you love it?"
Sorry I couldn't post last night - Wifi issues!! But I have to second everyone else who expressed support for your brilliant cartoons and your delightful sense of humour , Marf!
Keep up the good work!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-30458480
Can't have arrived at the celestial city via New Street Station.
"Zoinks!"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/tony-abbott-is-no-common-sense-speaking-politician-just-look-at-his-comments-on-isil/ He seems to be a bit desperate for some reason, apparently telling whoppers in his speech earlier according to the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-siege-gunman-man-haron-monis-did-not-have-gun-licence-nsw-police-20141217-129bg7.html
One of the Green Councillors has just stepped down from the City Council's Cabinet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-30475930
Bennett helpfully suggested that Airbus, Rolls-Royce should move out of aerospace and into some ill defined sectors which are eco-friendly. Great to see her suggesting that firms with significant competitive advantages in their industries are told to give them up. Won't win them much support for that.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, publishes another devastating report on the Home Office's immigration measures
Fewer than one per cent of immigrants who illegally overstayed in Britain have left the country after being chased up by a flagship Home Office scheme, a new report has revealed.
John Vine, the chief inspector of borders, said only 884 immigrants from a pool of 120,545 departed Britain voluntarily after being confronted by a private contractor - or 0.73 per cent of the total.
The firm, Capita, was hired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, in October 2012 to crack down on the massive pool of overstayers, whose visas had expired and should have gone home rather than continuing to reside here.
Mr Vine said it amounted to "poor performance" which had over-estimated the migrants' willingness to leave and Capita's "ability to persuade them"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11298383/Less-than-1-of-overstaying-immigrants-left-Britain-under-flagship-scheme-report-says.html
Is there an election in 2015?
2nd glossly leaflet from the Right Honourable and Noble Viscount this week.
2015 Calendar from our SNP representative at Holyrood.
All I was looking for are Christmas cards and cheques in the post (subscription renewal time at Clan Sutherland).
Do some people still take Comedy Resolution seriously? Bit like believing anything written by Polly Toynbee in the Guardian which doesn't involve wine and Tuscan villas.
Edited extra bit: suspect this may feel like a front-line come the GE, thanks to Balls reducing a 10k majority to just 1,000 votes last time.
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·2 mins2 minutes ago
Prime Minister confirms he is happy to see additional £7.5Bn rise in energy bills and tax at time householders sturgeon to keep warm #pmqs
ConneryEasterross!"It's been over a week since the last [GB] poll to show a Tory lead"
I felt sorry for EdM. Talk about kicking uphill and into a stiff wind. But he still manages to trip over his own shoe laces.
Seems like there is no love lost between Vine and May. He reckons she has been supressing bad immigration stats for some time
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2861620/Borders-chief-hits-Home-Secretary-deportation-errors-accused-suppressing-report-hundreds-foreign-criminals-not-kicked-out.html
So it seems the law *can* be more stupid than I thought it was.
If that's true, then it seems after 1 January 2015 if a Frenchman clicks an ad link on your website, you'll have to register for VAT in France.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-siege-gunman-man-haron-monis-did-not-have-gun-licence-nsw-police-20141217-129bg7.html
It hardly seems to make sense comparing thick people succumbing to a cult as the same as catching a cold. But here you must remember that you are not quoting 'the spectator' you are quoting 'Douglas Murray', one of the more self opinionated graduates of Eton.
Someone with his self assumed brain-the-size-of-a-planet ought to be able to do better than that.
In this anniversary of 1914 we should remember good honest christian folk descending into hysteria and shooting and hanging innocent Belgian women as they invaded that sad country.
Murray pronounces his grand opinions from all the experience of any 35 year old English graduate, who has 'never had a proper job'. He was busily defending neo conservatism at the ripe old age of 25.
Murray hates all muslims. He should just admit it and so should you.
Ad space -
Sounds like you'll be affected by the VAT nonsense if you sell it to an individual, but if you use Google ads you should be ok. I think. Strongly advise checking it out for yourself if you're worried.
Edited extra bit: very good ICM for Labour.
Google Adsense is the dominant option here. EU publishers would have a contract with Google Ireland.
The way out for this if probably for the EU to make it clear and legally binding that online platforms and payment providers take the record keeping and correct tax-charging legal responsibility. Kindle seem able to do it for ebooks.
My understanding is that the UK can unilaterally suspend the implimentation of this if they want to. It would make sense until the likes of Paypal get given the responsibility.
The list of online platforms I have seen is - Etsy, Folksy, Craftsy, Apple, Google Play, E-Junkie, Big Cartel, Shopify, Easy Digital Downloads, WooCommerce and Amazon – and payment providers – like Paypal, Stripe, Worldpay, IntuitPay and Google Wallet.
It may be that the issue is with the definition of 'on line platform' which as i understand it is what the EU use
I have read that Clickbank ('a privately held online marketplace for digital information products'), has been charging VAT to EU customers for a few years. If you look at their advice it says ''Vendors are not required to file any returns with the EC for sales made through ClickBank. ClickBank, acting as the retailer of your product or service, must comply with the Directive. We handle all compliance requirements. We determine if VAT applies, and at what rate. We then collect the tax, file a return with each of the 15 countries in the EC, pay the tax, and handle any foreign currency exchange issues.''
Note thats an older Directive but it seems not impossible .
I use paypal a little bit to buy off ebay. And indeed I 'paypaled' some money to a Portuguese individual, not a company, to rent an apartment for a holiday only the other week. It was all done on line. Whether the VAT is more or less it seems fair to me that as she is in Portugal and the apartment is in Portugal and her bank account is in Portugal and she is Portuguese, that I should pay Portuguese VAT if I have to.