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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the face of it this ComRes “issues that will most impact

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the face of it this ComRes “issues that will most impact on voting” polling doesn’t look good for the Tories

What is interesting about this ComRes survey for ITV is that it seeks to link the best party on each issue to what issues are likely to be decisive in influencing voter choice.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    First!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Well done Rob

    Just wondering how any more threads we are going to have stating the Tories / coalition / everyone else but Labour are gonna fall off the end of the world ?

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Moses_ said:

    Well done Rob

    Just wondering how any more threads we are going to have stating the Tories / coalition / everyone else but Labour are gonna fall off the end of the world ?

    Its the same as always, if the Tories pull into the lead the tune changes to how they aren't really in the lead because of the biased constituency sizes, maybe if the Tories were ever 6%+ in the lead the narrative might change...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited December 2014
    The price of oil has fallen, it will impact on petrol and energy prices this winter. Throw in the other indicators which effect living costs, and they too are looking very positive in the run up to the GE. Hence Ed Miliband and Labour going silent on living costs while now becoming almost hysterical in their focus on the NHS AGAIN during this Parliament. Its all they have got left, and that is why they will throw the kitchen sink at it during the GE rather than focus on the economy in any detail in case it opens them up to detailed questions or their previous record on the subject. Ditto Immigration.

    Its therefore extremely hard to see how the Conservatives strong lead on two main economic indicators doesn't look good for them as a result? The Conservatives remain well ahead of Labour in the two most important key indicators that underpin the future economic and financial stability of UK voters. As the Scottish Independence Referendum proved just a few short months ago, its the economy stupid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Moses_ said:

    Well done Rob

    Just wondering how any more threads we are going to have stating the Tories / coalition / everyone else but Labour are gonna fall off the end of the world ?

    Thank you, I worked hard for it, let me tell you!
  • The RAC said it expected petrol to be below £1 a litre early in 2015.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30507970

    Doesn't OGH have a theory about falling petrol prices increasing the poll rating of the governing party?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited December 2014
    I wonder if with inflation at 1.x%, petrol prices falling, etc, if the whole "cost of living" crisis / Labour lead of keeping prices down isn't that strong.

    That been said, it always amazes me these kind of questions. Labour well ahead of Tories on NHS, despite NHS still running ok under current government * and end of Labour's period overshadowed by all sorts of scandals, constant reports about terrible PFI contracts busting NHS, excessive management etc.

    And the flip size, that Tories way ahead on going to deal with the deficit, when well, they haven't done a particularly great job in power.

    People's answers on this don't seem very based on fact, rather long held prejudices, and very difficult to change one way or another. Although, Tories have done great on losing trust on immigration, that traditionally would have been a "banker", now barely ahead of Labour, the party of mass immigration.

    * Yes it is under strain, but no mega scandals, but I bet if you asked people "do you think Coalition were right to cut spending on NHS", I bet you get some crazy high % who say yes despite it being untrue.
  • ** I should say, I know Cameron did get a big lead on the NHS during the end of Labour's time and with all the scandals going on. But that soon was lost with the reorganization plans i.e people certainly not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, it was instantly bad Tories on NHS.

    And flip side, Tories don't do great on the economy / deficit / growth, still they seem to get the benefit of doubt on that.
  • fitalass said:

    Hence Ed Miliband and Labour going silent on living costs while now becoming almost hysterical in their focus on the NHS

    "Lost the economic argument - resorted to shroud waving on the NHS" - remind you of anyone?

    How did that turn out?

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014

    And flip side, Tories don't do great on the economy / deficit / growth, still they seem to get the benefit of doubt on that.

    Well Labour have rather shot themselves in the foot on that one, by banging on about how harsh the cuts have been, people will assume as a result they must have been effective. If they had gone much less heavily on the severity of cuts, it would have been easier to sell a story that the coalition wasn't doing enough on the deficit. Saying in effect "The cuts were really severe and it still wasn't enough" is going to beg the question what the party that plans to make much less severe cuts is going to do about the deficit. No one wants to hear the answer "raising taxes" either, because everyone assumes that at least some of it will eventually fall on them or those close to them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A pound now buys twice as many rubles as at the start of the year:

    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=RUB&view=1Y
  • Petrol now down to 112p/litre in Edinburgh, I fill up with 30 litre or so every 2 weeks on average. I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.

    Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Russia facing deep recession":

    http://www.economist.com/node/21636720
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2014
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Petrol now down to 112p/litre in Edinburgh, I fill up with 30 litre or so every 2 weeks on average. I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.

    Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?

    So basically its the wrong type of savings then? M'Kay.

    I think we have just found the nadir of the left wing poster.

    With no other place to go, having lost every single economic argument going, you are down to complaining about the fall in petrol prices supposedly benefitting one group over another?

    Seriously? I mean WTF?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    OGH should take his own advice and forget polls until the new year. Once the election buton is pressed , then we will all know.. this is just the phoney war.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    There is a major upside to the ruble devaluation. That is fewer Russian tourists abroad.
    Anybody who has had the misfortune to bump into this cohort over the past few years will welcome this development.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Moses_ said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Petrol now down to 112p/litre in Edinburgh, I fill up with 30 litre or so every 2 weeks on average. I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.

    Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?

    So basically its the wrong type of savings then? M'Kay.

    I think we have just found the nadir of the left wing poster.

    With no other place to go, having lost every single economic argument going, you are down to complaining about the fall in petrol prices supposedly benefitting one group over another?

    Seriously? I mean WTF?
    The guy buying the Bolly wont notice, he will buy the Bolly anyway if he wants it.

    The guy on JSA filling up 30 liters every 2 weeks, saves the equivalent of 5% of his allowance. Think he might notice that.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2014
    How many voters actually think in these terms? For most I would guess it is a gut feel rather than an individual issue analysis.
  • ComRes: The people have spoken – and they don’t appear to rate the LDs highly on anything.
  • Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.
  • AndyJS said:

    A pound now buys twice as many rubles as at the start of the year:

    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=RUB&view=1Y

    But will Putin come to heel, or lash out like a wounded beast?

    So far, I haven't seen much evidence it's done his popularity in Russia much harm. To be honest, I'm hard pressed to think of what would.
  • Moses_ said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Petrol now down to 112p/litre in Edinburgh, I fill up with 30 litre or so every 2 weeks on average. I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.

    Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?

    So basically its the wrong type of savings then? M'Kay.

    I think we have just found the nadir of the left wing poster.

    With no other place to go, having lost every single economic argument going, you are down to complaining about the fall in petrol prices supposedly benefitting one group over another?

    Seriously? I mean WTF?

    You clearly do not understand the point he is making. But then you think that the left has lost every economic argument going, so that it is no surprise.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Just an aside; should it be “rubles”, or, as I have always understood, “roubles”?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Moses_ said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Petrol now down to 112p/litre in Edinburgh, I fill up with 30 litre or so every 2 weeks on average. I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.

    Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?

    So basically its the wrong type of savings then? M'Kay.

    I think we have just found the nadir of the left wing poster.

    With no other place to go, having lost every single economic argument going, you are down to complaining about the fall in petrol prices supposedly benefitting one group over another?

    Seriously? I mean WTF?

    You clearly do not understand the point he is making. But then you think that the left has lost every economic argument going, so that it is no surprise.

    Oh dear - let's attack the man when you have no arguments. the fuel price drop is good news for everyone who has to use their car a lot. If the left cannot see that it's because they don't want to.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    philiph said:

    How many voters actually think in these terms? For most I would guess it is a gut feel rather than an individual issue analysis.

    Some and some I expect. If your Auntie is in hospital, or your child as a chronic condition you are going to care a lot more about the NHS, although whether you trust Labour or the Tories more on it probably depends on if you have had any relatives in Mid Staffs under the previous government. On the other hand if you are a young single male in good health you probably dont give much thought to the NHS. If you live in Islington you probably care a lot less about immigration that if you drive a white van in Toxteth. If you're a Guardian reading AB you probably dont notice the price of everyday goods as much as if you are on benefit.

    The problem for the Tories is that both the areas in which they excel are intangible, paying off the deficit and promoting economic growth are motherhood and apple pie issues, everyone sees them as good things, but they aren't visceral in the way shopping bills going up, relatives being looked after well or badly in hospital and race riots in your neighbourhood might be.

    Voters for which none of the above have any particular salience, who have a job, earn a reasonable salary, whose family is in good health, and who are happy with their neighbourhood on the other hand will probably vote on gut feel, or, depending on their sanctimony level, because they feel it is for the greater good ;-)
  • Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Public transport companies must be making a packet.
  • O/T - the fundamental problem here is that the Tories have shed a key part of their voting base coalition to UKIP, largely over the issues of respect, identity and immigration. This was not a factor in 2010.

    If they had retained that, they'd probably be polling 37-39% by now, with a clear lead over Labour. Without it, you do wonder if they can break higher than 32-33%.

    It might just be that virtually everyone who'd seriously consider voting for the current incarnation of the Tory party is already doing so.
  • felix said:

    Moses_ said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Petrol now down to 112p/litre in Edinburgh, I fill up with 30 litre or so every 2 weeks on average. I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.

    Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?

    So basically its the wrong type of savings then? M'Kay.

    I think we have just found the nadir of the left wing poster.

    With no other place to go, having lost every single economic argument going, you are down to complaining about the fall in petrol prices supposedly benefitting one group over another?

    Seriously? I mean WTF?

    You clearly do not understand the point he is making. But then you think that the left has lost every economic argument going, so that it is no surprise.

    Oh dear - let's attack the man when you have no arguments. the fuel price drop is good news for everyone who has to use their car a lot. If the left cannot see that it's because they don't want to.

    Of course the fuel price drop is good news. But the original point was whether it would actually make any difference politically. It seems that our right-leaning posters on here are so keen to attack lefties that they fail to understand this.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Greetings from Dubai. I'm at a hotel where 50% of the guests are usually Russian. This year, there are no Russians.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    (and I'm paying 30-40% less than I paid last year)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    Greetings from Dubai. I'm at a hotel where 50% of the guests are usually Russian. This year, there are no Russians.

    The current situation might also mean that a lot of flights henceforth won't have a group of people onboard who attempt to consume the aircraft's entire supply of alcohol in the space of a few hours.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:

    The current situation might also mean that a lot of flights henceforth won't have a group of people onboard who attempt to consume the aircraft's entire supply of alcohol in the space of a few hours.

    There is a ban on Glaswegians?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    In relaunches #26 and #32 Ed came up with less than brilliant plans about freezing energy prices (that are now falling) and rents (in ways no one really understood). How we all laughed and mocked.

    And Labour now have a 12 point lead on keeping down the price of everyday items. Against a government whose record on inflation is almost too good and is in danger of falling into outright deflation over the next few months.

    I find a good sense of humour helps one through the day.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited December 2014

    Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is a religion not a rational thing for many - especially on the left. The NHS has been in 'crisis' since forever. Apart from the fact that it is not. Actually for the most part the NHS is a perfectly functional body that delivers well most of the time. It's a political plaything.

    Yesterday my father had open heart surgery (new valve) at Addenbrookes in Cambridge. Well prepared and explained. Top surgeon. Well done. Good care. He's fine and will be out of ICU in two days. It was free (ahem...he's a taxpayer). In the USA this would have set him back tens of thousands. Yes the NHS can be better managed, yes we could get the same or better care for cheaper if we had more competition. But the NHS ain't broke. It's pretty good.
  • How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?

    On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...

    "I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    Patrick said:

    Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is a religion not a rational thing for many - especially on the left. The NHS has been in 'crisis' since forever. Apart from the fact that it is not. Actually for the most part the NHS is a perfectly functional body that delivers well most of the time. It's a political plaything.

    Yesterday my father had open heart surgery (new valve) at Addenbrookes in Cambridge. Well prepared and explained. Top surgeon. Well done. Good care. He's fine and will be out of ICU in two days. It was free (ahem...he's a taxpayer). In the USA this would have set him back tens of thousands. Yes the NHS can be better managed, yes we could get the same or better care for chepaer if we had more competition. But the NHS ain't broke. It's pretty good.
    Glad things went well with your father, and I hope the recovery goes well.

    The NHS is a religion for some: hence Burnham's crass remark the other day about him regretting the Stafford inquiry as it hurt the reputation of the hospital trust. He should learn that patients and outcomes matter more than the organisation's reputation, especially where that organisation's behaved terribly.

    It's a sign that Burnham should be allowed nowhere near the health department.

    (I'd ask him if he felt the same about his beloved Hillsborough inquiry - it shouldn't be going on because it hurt the reputation of the police?)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    * Yes it is under strain, but no mega scandals, but I bet if you asked people "do you think Coalition were right to cut spending on NHS", I bet you get some crazy high % who say yes despite it being untrue.

    There was a poll done a few years ago as one of the questions asked if the respondent thought the previous Labour government (1997-2010) had decreased, increased or left spending the same. The majority of people thought they had cut spending on the NHS.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?

    On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...

    "I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."

    Duty is not affected by the changes (although I bet the temptation to add a couple of pence a litre would have been severe if they had anticipated anything like this) so it will only be the VAT element. On a fall of 20p per litre that will be roughly 4p. But as long as we spend the savings on other VATable products he will get it back.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

    £3. He fills up every 2 weeks so the savings are defrayed over a fortnight. It's pricey to buy a pint in Edinburgh, it's not that pricey.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is always up in my top three issues; but in part because it is my prime source of income.

    As well as those having treatment, there are a lot of relatives who may be fit and young who get experience second hand. The bearded hipster in Holborn may well have a frail grandmother with dementia.

    It is also totemic of the sort of society we want and the values we hold. Health is the ultimate essential, should everyone be entitled to equal treatment? Should we allow profiteering by private companies? Should we have forties style rationing by queue?

    Many Western governments have little state provision of health care but in the UK it is seen as a core and very visible government function. It is why some love it and why some hate it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Alistair said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

    £3. He fills up every 2 weeks so the savings are defrayed over a fortnight. It's pricey to buy a pint in Edinburgh, it's not that pricey.
    £11 for 3 pints in Ma Belles in Edinburgh last night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    @foxinsox

    The bearded hipster is in Hoxton, not Holborn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    DavidL said:

    How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?

    On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...

    "I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."

    Duty is not affected by the changes (although I bet the temptation to add a couple of pence a litre would have been severe if they had anticipated anything like this) so it will only be the VAT element. On a fall of 20p per litre that will be roughly 4p. But as long as we spend the savings on other VATable products he will get it back.
    Although, of course, the North Sea tax take will be lower. As the UK is a substantial net importer of oil and gas, the overall impact to the economy will be positive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    @foxinsox

    The bearded hipster is in Hoxton, not Holborn.

    I was in Holborn last week and saw the most fashionable man in London. Spectacular whiskers and a true dandy.
  • DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

    £3. He fills up every 2 weeks so the savings are defrayed over a fortnight. It's pricey to buy a pint in Edinburgh, it's not that pricey.
    £11 for 3 pints in Ma Belles in Edinburgh last night.

    £1.99 for a pint of bitter in a JD Wetherspoons pub in Leamington on Saturday. Then I found out why their prices are so low and decided that in future I might go elsewhere and pay a bit more.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Alistair said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

    £3. He fills up every 2 weeks so the savings are defrayed over a fortnight. It's pricey to buy a pint in Edinburgh, it's not that pricey.
    Indeed, and young person's JSA is just over £57, so that petrol price drop will have saved that young lad with his first car about 5% of his benefit on equivalent fuel consumption.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    How much revenue does the Chancellor lose with the lower petrol prices?

    On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...

    "I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."

    Duty is not affected by the changes (although I bet the temptation to add a couple of pence a litre would have been severe if they had anticipated anything like this) so it will only be the VAT element. On a fall of 20p per litre that will be roughly 4p. But as long as we spend the savings on other VATable products he will get it back.
    Although, of course, the North Sea tax take will be lower. As the UK is a substantial net importer of oil and gas, the overall impact to the economy will be positive.
    Agreed. It is depressing that the lunacy and fantasy elements of the Independence campaign which have been exposed by this seems to be having no impact on SNP popularity. There seems little doubt that this very aggressive attack on marginal oil production by the Saudis will have seriously adverse consequences for north sea investment and employment for some years to come.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

    £3. He fills up every 2 weeks so the savings are defrayed over a fortnight. It's pricey to buy a pint in Edinburgh, it's not that pricey.
    £11 for 3 pints in Ma Belles in Edinburgh last night.

    £1.99 for a pint of bitter in a JD Wetherspoons pub in Leamington on Saturday. Then I found out why their prices are so low and decided that in future I might go elsewhere and pay a bit more.

    £4.20 for a pint for me last Sunday, but it was Thornbridge Jaipur IPA.

    Well worth the money. Possibly the best brewery in England.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wow I'm amazed that a saving of a few pound a month is a stupendous saving for someone on JSA but the running cost of a fridge on a pre-pay meter (a few quid a month) is not a significant cost.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    What was the electorate's view on these main topics in 2010?

    I'd guess that Labour led back then on the NHS, but it didn't lead them to a win.

    What reason is there to suppose that anything much has changed? The Tories are losing votes to one place only.

  • Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is always up in my top three issues; but in part because it is my prime source of income.

    As well as those having treatment, there are a lot of relatives who may be fit and young who get experience second hand. The bearded hipster in Holborn may well have a frail grandmother with dementia.

    It is also totemic of the sort of society we want and the values we hold. Health is the ultimate essential, should everyone be entitled to equal treatment? Should we allow profiteering by private companies? Should we have forties style rationing by queue?

    Many Western governments have little state provision of health care but in the UK it is seen as a core and very visible government function. It is why some love it and why some hate it.
    That's actually not true. Most western governments do have effective state provision of healthcare, and do it more effectively than we do.

    This is a myth once step removed from the 'would you prefer it if we had to pay for healthcare, like they do in the US?" canard. It's not a binary choice.

    You've also managed to check 'profiteering by private companies' (tick) and 'everyone should be entitled to equal treatment' (tick)

    Well done for getting all the NHS cliches into one post.
  • Patrick said:

    Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is a religion not a rational thing for many - especially on the left. The NHS has been in 'crisis' since forever. Apart from the fact that it is not. Actually for the most part the NHS is a perfectly functional body that delivers well most of the time. It's a political plaything.

    Yesterday my father had open heart surgery (new valve) at Addenbrookes in Cambridge. Well prepared and explained. Top surgeon. Well done. Good care. He's fine and will be out of ICU in two days. It was free (ahem...he's a taxpayer). In the USA this would have set him back tens of thousands. Yes the NHS can be better managed, yes we could get the same or better care for cheaper if we had more competition. But the NHS ain't broke. It's pretty good.
    I agree with your first paragraph. I'm glad to hear your father is recovering well.

    You fell into the U.S. comparator gambit in the final bit, though. This is why I don't debate the NHS and healthcare. As you say, it's virtually impossible to discuss rationally.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    I save about £6 compared with the beginning of the year. So equivalent to a pint of beer or a lunch time sandwich a week.

    You spend £6 on a sandwich and sneer at Bolly buyers?

    £3. He fills up every 2 weeks so the savings are defrayed over a fortnight. It's pricey to buy a pint in Edinburgh, it's not that pricey.
    £11 for 3 pints in Ma Belles in Edinburgh last night.

    £1.99 for a pint of bitter in a JD Wetherspoons pub in Leamington on Saturday. Then I found out why their prices are so low and decided that in future I might go elsewhere and pay a bit more.

    Yes. Price isn't everything. Ma Belles has fiddlers a couple of times a week and an excellent range of whiskies. And no music (other than the fiddlers) or TVs. A proper pub well worth £3.35 a pint. Decent beers like IPA too.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    "Five months to save the NHS"...that should pull em in ..
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    "Five months to save the NHS"...that should pull em in ..

    As Alex Wickham said yesterday
    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/16/Everyone-is-lying-to-you
    What about the NHS? On healthcare, one party and one politician above all tells the most fibs. Time and time again Labour’s Andy Burnham tells us “the Tories are privatising the NHS”. Most amusingly, back in 2011 Burnham told voters they had “just 72 hours to save the NHS”, presumably before the Tories destroyed it forever. Again, the truth is far away. Privatisation means transferring ownership of the NHS to private control. A minority of individual services are being contracted out to private providers - a policy backed by the last Labour government - but it is just untrue to say this amounts to privatisation. As for the “72 hours” claim, the NHS is still here some 26,000 hours later.
  • Indigo said:

    "Five months to save the NHS"...that should pull em in ..

    As Alex Wickham said yesterday
    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/16/Everyone-is-lying-to-you
    What about the NHS? On healthcare, one party and one politician above all tells the most fibs. Time and time again Labour’s Andy Burnham tells us “the Tories are privatising the NHS”. Most amusingly, back in 2011 Burnham told voters they had “just 72 hours to save the NHS”, presumably before the Tories destroyed it forever. Again, the truth is far away. Privatisation means transferring ownership of the NHS to private control. A minority of individual services are being contracted out to private providers - a policy backed by the last Labour government - but it is just untrue to say this amounts to privatisation. As for the “72 hours” claim, the NHS is still here some 26,000 hours later.
    It could be '24 hours to save the NHS' (again) on 6th May.

    And why shouldn't Labour persist with these tried & tested lies? They seem to consistently work in getting the party votes, after all.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    The cost of living matter may alter over the coming months, with inflation low and oil prices reportedly due to drop even further. It also takes a while for political sentiment to change. I doubt the deficit or immigration polling will alter. Growth might, but probably won't.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is always up in my top three issues; but in part because it is my prime source of income.

    As well as those having treatment, there are a lot of relatives who may be fit and young who get experience second hand. The bearded hipster in Holborn may well have a frail grandmother with dementia.

    It is also totemic of the sort of society we want and the values we hold. Health is the ultimate essential, should everyone be entitled to equal treatment? Should we allow profiteering by private companies? Should we have forties style rationing by queue?

    Many Western governments have little state provision of health care but in the UK it is seen as a core and very visible government function. It is why some love it and why some hate it.
    That's actually not true. Most western governments do have effective state provision of healthcare, and do it more effectively than we do.

    This is a myth once step removed from the 'would you prefer it if we had to pay for healthcare, like they do in the US?" canard. It's not a binary choice.

    You've also managed to check 'profiteering by private companies' (tick) and 'everyone should be entitled to equal treatment' (tick)

    Well done for getting all the NHS cliches into one post.
    I was careful to say many rather than most governments. In many places the state heavily funds health care, but in the UK it is also the provider.

    The point is that attitudes to the NHS are based on long term impressions and often misleading ones, so do not change quickly. I have not forgiven Labour for Milburns privatisation or Hewitts demolition of postgraduate medical education. The coalition reforms have their downsides but are largely working well.

    Incidentally there were 5 000 more hospital admissions in England last week compared with a year ago. There is a winter crisis looming, even with the extra money.
  • I very much doubt whether people vote on issues in the main. It's a far more emotional process.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    Leftie blogs jumping up and down about

    http://labourlist.org/2014/12/two-thirds-of-people-dont-support-osbornes-spending-cuts-poll-finds/

    Pretty sure two thirds of the public wouldnt support the economy collapsing if debt interest went up by a couple of percent or so because the bond markets dont think they will get their money back. Equally sure two thirds of the public wouldnt like the 15% overnight cuts the chancellor would be forced into making in public spending if no further loans were made available to the country because people think there are better placed to lend their money.

    In the week where oil prices halved, and the Rouble fell through the floor, and the month in which there is a real chance of the anti-EU Syriza being elected in Greece, people should be a little less credulous if siren voices that tell them that its okay, we can borrow forever, the interest rates wont increase (which they will at some point), the interest due wont increase (which it is doing all the time) and people will lend us money forever (ask Canada in 1994 about that when its bond auction mostly failed and left it a financial third world country overnight http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/21/lessons-from-canadas-basket-case-moment/)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    I very much doubt whether people vote on issues in the main. It's a far more emotional process.

    When voting for policies the Greens come top:

    http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

    It seems most Britons are watermelons.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Greetings from Dubai. I'm at a hotel where 50% of the guests are usually Russian. This year, there are no Russians.

    Poor you. Dubai is a God-awful place.
  • antifrank said:

    I very much doubt whether people vote on issues in the main. It's a far more emotional process.

    When voting for policies the Greens come top:

    http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

    It seems most Britons are watermelons.
    And oddly, I agree with very few Green policies individually but have voted for them in the past and would do so again.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014

    antifrank said:

    I very much doubt whether people vote on issues in the main. It's a far more emotional process.

    When voting for policies the Greens come top:

    http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

    It seems most Britons are watermelons.
    No, Britons dont read. They like the touchy feely animal hugging image of the Green's, they would be rather less happy when their industrial policy turns their country into an financial basket case overnight, and were forced to cut services in a way that would make Dennis Healey blink! It all about sending a message again, people know the Greens won't be near the levers of power.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    I very much doubt whether people vote on issues in the main. It's a far more emotional process.

    I very much doubt whether many would offer up " keeping the cost of everyday items down" unprompted.

    Inflation is 1% ...
  • Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is always up in my top three issues; but in part because it is my prime source of income.

    As well as those having treatment, there are a lot of relatives who may be fit and young who get experience second hand. The bearded hipster in Holborn may well have a frail grandmother with dementia.

    It is also totemic of the sort of society we want and the values we hold. Health is the ultimate essential, should everyone be entitled to equal treatment? Should we allow profiteering by private companies? Should we have forties style rationing by queue?

    Many Western governments have little state provision of health care but in the UK it is seen as a core and very visible government function. It is why some love it and why some hate it.
    That's actually not true. Most western governments do have effective state provision of healthcare, and do it more effectively than we do.

    This is a myth once step removed from the 'would you prefer it if we had to pay for healthcare, like they do in the US?" canard. It's not a binary choice.

    You've also managed to check 'profiteering by private companies' (tick) and 'everyone should be entitled to equal treatment' (tick)

    Well done for getting all the NHS cliches into one post.
    I was careful to say many rather than most governments. In many places the state heavily funds health care, but in the UK it is also the provider.

    The point is that attitudes to the NHS are based on long term impressions and often misleading ones, so do not change quickly. I have not forgiven Labour for Milburns privatisation or Hewitts demolition of postgraduate medical education. The coalition reforms have their downsides but are largely working well.

    Incidentally there were 5 000 more hospital admissions in England last week compared with a year ago. There is a winter crisis looming, even with the extra money.
    Which, in your view, are the many Western governments that have little state provision of healthcare? When I say 'provision' I mean funding, not delivery. I actually don't care who delivers healthcare - it's irrelevant. Maximum access that isn't based on the ability to pay is what I'm interested in. And healthcare outcomes.

    Your last observation is interesting. Why, in your view, are there so many more hospital admissions this year compared to last?
  • Some of those Muslims killed yesterday may have moved to the UK when they finished their education.
    Two sides to every story.
  • antifrank said:

    I very much doubt whether people vote on issues in the main. It's a far more emotional process.

    When voting for policies the Greens come top:

    http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

    It seems most Britons are watermelons.
    It's probably more reflective of the free lunches offered by parties that have no real prospect of power, compared to the measured realism of those that do.

    But, even so, the main parties should take note if their policies are vastly more unattractive than the rest.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033

    Some of those Muslims killed yesterday may have moved to the UK when they finished their education.
    Two sides to every story.

    Just wow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Greetings from Dubai. I'm at a hotel where 50% of the guests are usually Russian. This year, there are no Russians.

    Poor you. Dubai is a God-awful place.
    I would have thought you'd have approved of their treatment of criminals.

    More seriously, I have a four year old son. Being at a hotel where he can run run around, build sandcastles, swim, etc, is a godsend in the depths of winter.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    The NHS is to the national government like rubbish collection is to local government - it's the one thing that nearly everyone thinks of as the Government providing that is potentially very important to them or their families. If waiting times increase (and the perception is that they have) it's like the council forgetting to get your rubbish - do it a couple of times and your opinion of them drops sharply. The Tory weakness is that collectively they never give the impression that they really think it's a good idea, more one that they realise they have to go along with.

    Obviously both levels of government do loads of other things, but they don't spring to mind so readily for most people - yeah, they run the economy though it seems increasingly outsourced to global markets, they defend us from hypothetical invaders, they build flood defences, they sometimes fix the roads. Only education really is up there as similarly directly important, and most people would struggle to tell you exactly which part of government is responsible for that, because in practice it's divided. The cost of living is up there too, but again people aren't sure how much relates to the national government.

    Immigration fits up to a point - most people see it as a function of government and they're aware that there are more foreigners around than there used to be. Tony Blair once said to me that he didn't think most people were especially worried by foreigners per se, but they were horrified by any impression that the government had lost control, with people clinging to the underside of lorries in the Channel Tunnel etc. Since EU membership does objectively mean that we don't control it, many people are grumpy about the perceived failure.

    (As usual, I'm commenting on what most people seem to think, not my personal view.)

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning.
    As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
    Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.

    It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.
  • Indigo said:

    "Five months to save the NHS"...that should pull em in ..

    As Alex Wickham said yesterday
    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/16/Everyone-is-lying-to-you
    What about the NHS? On healthcare, one party and one politician above all tells the most fibs. Time and time again Labour’s Andy Burnham tells us “the Tories are privatising the NHS”. Most amusingly, back in 2011 Burnham told voters they had “just 72 hours to save the NHS”, presumably before the Tories destroyed it forever. Again, the truth is far away. Privatisation means transferring ownership of the NHS to private control. A minority of individual services are being contracted out to private providers - a policy backed by the last Labour government - but it is just untrue to say this amounts to privatisation. As for the “72 hours” claim, the NHS is still here some 26,000 hours later.
    It could be '24 hours to save the NHS' (again) on 6th May.

    And why shouldn't Labour persist with these tried & tested lies? They seem to consistently work in getting the party votes, after all.

    How long did the Tories give us to save the pound?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    Good morning.
    As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
    Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.

    It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.


    from the Teleg

    "Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s."

    Bit wimpy - perhaps it isn't such a big deal. But very funny - Putin getting his just rewards - couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195

    OGH should take his own advice and forget polls until the new year. Once the election buton is pressed , then we will all know.. this is just the phoney war.

    It's remarkable how many phoney wars we have had! A cynic might say that a phoney war is a euphemism for the Conservatives trailing in the polls. If they were five points clear, we'd be on an election footing.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    rcs1000 said:

    @foxinsox

    The bearded hipster is in Hoxton, not Holborn.

    You are behind the times. Holborn is the new Hoxton.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Bobajob_ said:

    OGH should take his own advice and forget polls until the new year. Once the election buton is pressed , then we will all know.. this is just the phoney war.

    It's remarkable how many phoney wars we have had! A cynic might say that a phoney war is a euphemism for the Conservatives trailing in the polls. If they were five points clear, we'd be on an election footing.
    If it wasn't for the Fixed Term Parliament Act we would be on an election footing.

    But at least it keeps PBers something to natter about.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    EU court rules Hamas isn't a terrorist organisations...

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TGOHF said:

    EU court rules Hamas isn't a terrorist organisations...

    Yeh, great, ain't it!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    How's that cost of living crisis going Ed?

    The 99p litre of petrol is on its way back: Prices set to dip below £1 in early January as cost of barrel of oil continues to fall

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2877022/The-99p-litre-petrol-way-Prices-set-dip-1-early-January-cost-barrel-oil-continues-fall.html#ixzz3M8zetH8K
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TGOHF said:

    EU court rules Hamas isn't a terrorist organisations...

    Hamas was elected by the people of Gaza. So was the Israeli government. Hamas sends rockets. Israel sends F16s. Israel proportionately kills many more.

    If Hamas is terrorist, the Israeli government must be more so.
  • TGOHF said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning.
    As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
    Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.

    It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.


    from the Teleg

    "Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s."

    Bit wimpy - perhaps it isn't such a big deal. But very funny - Putin getting his just rewards - couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
    It's all very well getting one over Putin, but we also should think of the poor Russian citizens who may be about to enter uncharted waters and instability.
  • TGOHF said:

    EU court rules Hamas isn't a terrorist organisations...

    Since Hamas is the elected government of a quasi-state isn't that true on a point of legal technicality and in terms of the designation of being a terrorist organisation having any meaning and use?

    One wouldn't have described the Soviet Union as being led by a terrorist organisation, for example, though many people were indeed terrified of them.

    It's not like the world is divided between terrorists and good people, and if one doesn't agree that Hamas are terrorists then it implies one thinks they are good people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    TGOHF said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning.
    As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
    Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.

    It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.


    from the Teleg

    "Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s."

    Bit wimpy - perhaps it isn't such a big deal. But very funny - Putin getting his just rewards - couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
    It's all very well getting one over Putin, but we also should think of the poor Russian citizens who may be about to enter uncharted waters and instability.
    It's those same poor Russian citizens who put him there....
  • Ploughing through the Russia crisis detail, I see France's Societe Generale has big exposure - another nice headache for Hollande?
  • TGOHF said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning.
    As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
    Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.

    It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.


    from the Teleg

    "Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s."

    Bit wimpy - perhaps it isn't such a big deal. But very funny - Putin getting his just rewards - couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
    It's all very well getting one over Putin, but we also should think of the poor Russian citizens who may be about to enter uncharted waters and instability.
    It's those same poor Russian citizens who put him there....
    Not sure we could class the elections as entirely 'free and fair'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Greetings from Dubai. I'm at a hotel where 50% of the guests are usually Russian. This year, there are no Russians.

    Poor you. Dubai is a God-awful place.
    I would have thought you'd have approved of their treatment of criminals.

    More seriously, I have a four year old son. Being at a hotel where he can run run around, build sandcastles, swim, etc, is a godsend in the depths of winter.
    I wonder if this is why the Turkish currency/economy has faltered slightly... my hotel (Nr Kemer/Antalya) was 95% Russian in the summer and tourism is very important to the economy there.
  • Reading the ever excellent Mary Riddell in DT on Labour's policy review and strategy. It appears nobody knows who is actually going to write their manifesto. We have just over 3 months before it needs to be ready. Incredible if true.
  • Reading the ever excellent Mary Riddell in DT on Labour's policy review and strategy. It appears nobody knows who is actually going to write their manifesto. We have just over 3 months before it needs to be ready. Incredible if true.

    Whatever happened to the idiot that wrote the last one?
  • Some of those Muslims killed yesterday may have moved to the UK when they finished their education.
    Two sides to every story.

    Jesus, what exactly is that supposed to mean?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    TGOHF said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning.
    As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
    Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.

    It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.


    from the Teleg

    "Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s."

    Bit wimpy - perhaps it isn't such a big deal. But very funny - Putin getting his just rewards - couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0JT0H420141215?irpc=932

    Texas is being hit hard. High cost oil producers, unable to devalue to spur manufacturing or tourism, high debt burden.

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/fed-bubble-bursts-in-550-billion-of-energy-debt-credit-markets.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Who are all these people that put the NHS 2nd? Above the economy, budget deficit, and cost of living? Are we all really that ill?

    Bizarre.

    It is always up in my top three issues; but in part because it is my prime source of income.

    As well as those having treatment, there are a lot of relatives who may be fit and young who get experience second hand. The bearded hipster in Holborn may well have a frail grandmother with dementia.

    It is also totemic of the sort of society we want and the values we hold. Health is the ultimate essential, should everyone be entitled to equal treatment? Should we allow profiteering by private companies? Should we have forties style rationing by queue?

    Many Western governments have little state provision of health care but in the UK it is seen as a core and very visible government function. It is why some love it and why some hate it.
    That's actually not true. Most western governments do have effective state provision of healthcare, and do it more effectively than we do.

    This is a myth once step removed from the 'would you prefer it if we had to pay for healthcare, like they do in the US?" canard. It's not a binary choice.

    You've also managed to check 'profiteering by private companies' (tick) and 'everyone should be entitled to equal treatment' (tick)

    Well done for getting all the NHS cliches into one post.
    Incidentally there were 5 000 more hospital admissions in England last week compared with a year ago. There is a winter crisis looming, even with the extra money.
    Which, in your view, are the many Western governments that have little state provision of healthcare? When I say 'provision' I mean funding, not delivery. I actually don't care who delivers healthcare - it's irrelevant. Maximum access that isn't based on the ability to pay is what I'm interested in. And healthcare outcomes.

    Your last observation is interesting. Why, in your view, are there so many more hospital admissions this year compared to last?
    The issue of provision rather than funding of health is key. Merely funding puts government at arms distance from responsibility. Some people want that sort of accountability.

    Hospital admissions are up mostly because last year was significantly more mild weatherwise, and less flu. So far the NHS seems to be coping, but several hospitals have had to declare incidents and move to crisis management. We did in Leicester last Tuesday because of the number of emergencies in A and E.
  • Mr Smithson said not to look at the polls, but since they have recently been remarkably stable - in aggregate - I shall do so nonetheless.

    The Conservatives

    Taking this as a reasonable representation of the opinion polls and it is immediately apparent that the Conservative level of support has been exceptionally stable since ~August 2013 - a period of 16 months.

    It is therefore not entirely unreasonable to suppose that it will remain at this level until polling day itself. The next question is: what is this level?

    The last dozen Populus polls give an average support of 33.1%.
    The last dozen YouGov polls: 32.3%
    The last half-dozen Ashcroft: 29.3%
    The last half-dozen ICM: 31.8%

    For the sake of argument, I'll take the top of this range: 33%. We can then use UNS to work out what level of support Labour must be reduced to for Cameron to remain as PM = 29.5%. This would be just marginally down on their 2010 support.

    UNS across Great Britain ignores the effect of the SNP on Labour seat totals, so if we assume that Labour will lose 25 seats to the SNP, then Cameron will probably remain as PM when GB-wide UNS has the Conservatives 25 seats behind Labour.

    Cameron's continued tenure in Number 10 Downing Street, may require a national vote lead of just over 1%.

    So, can Labour be reduced to below 32% of the vote...?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pay up 1.6%, inflation 1%.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    chestnut said:

    Pay up 1.6%, inflation 1%.

    Another Ed Miliband Ed Balls meme bites the dust..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    Polling observatory shows only one party on the rise

    "UKIP had another strong month in November, with Mark Reckless, their second defection from the Conservatives, comfortably elected in UKIP colours in a seat without a demographic pro-UKIP lean. The sustained upward trend in UKIP support continues for another month, as Farage’s insurgents rise to 16.2%, a new record, up one point on last month. The pollsters have now arrived at a clearer consensus on UKIP support, reflected in the narrower “confidence interval” in our estimate, shown by the dashed lines. Farage and his colleagues will certainly be among the nation’s most confident politicians going into Christmas break. A year ago, many doubted that the party could convert their rising support into Westminster seats. No longer. Now the questions under heated discussion at political Christmas parties will be: “how many seats? Where? From whom?” The party can take great pride in its achievements to date, but longer term challenges remain. Even if it were to win 10 seats, the top end of most expectations, that would see 15% of the vote converted to less than 2% of the elected parliamentary intake."

    http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/12/17/polling-observatory-43/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Reading the ever excellent Mary Riddell in DT on Labour's policy review and strategy. It appears nobody knows who is actually going to write their manifesto. We have just over 3 months before it needs to be ready. Incredible if true.

    UKIP's 2010 manifesto is in need of a new home. Perhaps they could pinch that?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Now the questions under heated discussion at political Christmas parties will be: “how many seats? Where? From whom?”

    Wow. Sounds even worse than my work Xmas do.
This discussion has been closed.