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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the face of it this ComRes “issues that will most impact
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the face of it this ComRes “issues that will most impact on voting” polling doesn’t look good for the Tories
What is interesting about this ComRes survey for ITV is that it seeks to link the best party on each issue to what issues are likely to be decisive in influencing voter choice.
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Just wondering how any more threads we are going to have stating the Tories / coalition / everyone else but Labour are gonna fall off the end of the world ?
Its therefore extremely hard to see how the Conservatives strong lead on two main economic indicators doesn't look good for them as a result? The Conservatives remain well ahead of Labour in the two most important key indicators that underpin the future economic and financial stability of UK voters. As the Scottish Independence Referendum proved just a few short months ago, its the economy stupid.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30507970
Doesn't OGH have a theory about falling petrol prices increasing the poll rating of the governing party?
That been said, it always amazes me these kind of questions. Labour well ahead of Tories on NHS, despite NHS still running ok under current government * and end of Labour's period overshadowed by all sorts of scandals, constant reports about terrible PFI contracts busting NHS, excessive management etc.
And the flip size, that Tories way ahead on going to deal with the deficit, when well, they haven't done a particularly great job in power.
People's answers on this don't seem very based on fact, rather long held prejudices, and very difficult to change one way or another. Although, Tories have done great on losing trust on immigration, that traditionally would have been a "banker", now barely ahead of Labour, the party of mass immigration.
* Yes it is under strain, but no mega scandals, but I bet if you asked people "do you think Coalition were right to cut spending on NHS", I bet you get some crazy high % who say yes despite it being untrue.
And flip side, Tories don't do great on the economy / deficit / growth, still they seem to get the benefit of doubt on that.
How did that turn out?
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=RUB&view=1Y
Of course if you have a gas guzzler 4 x 4 or a Rolls /Beemer/Jag, you will now probably be buying a couple of extra bottles of Bolly each week.
Er! Which parties traditional supporters will be celebrating more this season? And will they notice or care anyway?
http://www.economist.com/node/21636720
I think we have just found the nadir of the left wing poster.
With no other place to go, having lost every single economic argument going, you are down to complaining about the fall in petrol prices supposedly benefitting one group over another?
Seriously? I mean WTF?
Anybody who has had the misfortune to bump into this cohort over the past few years will welcome this development.
The guy on JSA filling up 30 liters every 2 weeks, saves the equivalent of 5% of his allowance. Think he might notice that.
Bizarre.
So far, I haven't seen much evidence it's done his popularity in Russia much harm. To be honest, I'm hard pressed to think of what would.
The problem for the Tories is that both the areas in which they excel are intangible, paying off the deficit and promoting economic growth are motherhood and apple pie issues, everyone sees them as good things, but they aren't visceral in the way shopping bills going up, relatives being looked after well or badly in hospital and race riots in your neighbourhood might be.
Voters for which none of the above have any particular salience, who have a job, earn a reasonable salary, whose family is in good health, and who are happy with their neighbourhood on the other hand will probably vote on gut feel, or, depending on their sanctimony level, because they feel it is for the greater good ;-)
If they had retained that, they'd probably be polling 37-39% by now, with a clear lead over Labour. Without it, you do wonder if they can break higher than 32-33%.
It might just be that virtually everyone who'd seriously consider voting for the current incarnation of the Tory party is already doing so.
And Labour now have a 12 point lead on keeping down the price of everyday items. Against a government whose record on inflation is almost too good and is in danger of falling into outright deflation over the next few months.
I find a good sense of humour helps one through the day.
Yesterday my father had open heart surgery (new valve) at Addenbrookes in Cambridge. Well prepared and explained. Top surgeon. Well done. Good care. He's fine and will be out of ICU in two days. It was free (ahem...he's a taxpayer). In the USA this would have set him back tens of thousands. Yes the NHS can be better managed, yes we could get the same or better care for cheaper if we had more competition. But the NHS ain't broke. It's pretty good.
On thread - I thought stamp duty was the new cut through policy after IHT .... I believe it is as well, we shall see as it works its way through the electorate...
"I’m not convinced that either of the main party economic spokesmen, Osborne and Ball, have what it takes in terms of communication skills. They both seem more concerned with taking chunks out of each other than getting messages over that resonate."
The NHS is a religion for some: hence Burnham's crass remark the other day about him regretting the Stafford inquiry as it hurt the reputation of the hospital trust. He should learn that patients and outcomes matter more than the organisation's reputation, especially where that organisation's behaved terribly.
It's a sign that Burnham should be allowed nowhere near the health department.
(I'd ask him if he felt the same about his beloved Hillsborough inquiry - it shouldn't be going on because it hurt the reputation of the police?)
As well as those having treatment, there are a lot of relatives who may be fit and young who get experience second hand. The bearded hipster in Holborn may well have a frail grandmother with dementia.
It is also totemic of the sort of society we want and the values we hold. Health is the ultimate essential, should everyone be entitled to equal treatment? Should we allow profiteering by private companies? Should we have forties style rationing by queue?
Many Western governments have little state provision of health care but in the UK it is seen as a core and very visible government function. It is why some love it and why some hate it.
The bearded hipster is in Hoxton, not Holborn.
Well worth the money. Possibly the best brewery in England.
I'd guess that Labour led back then on the NHS, but it didn't lead them to a win.
What reason is there to suppose that anything much has changed? The Tories are losing votes to one place only.
This is a myth once step removed from the 'would you prefer it if we had to pay for healthcare, like they do in the US?" canard. It's not a binary choice.
You've also managed to check 'profiteering by private companies' (tick) and 'everyone should be entitled to equal treatment' (tick)
Well done for getting all the NHS cliches into one post.
You fell into the U.S. comparator gambit in the final bit, though. This is why I don't debate the NHS and healthcare. As you say, it's virtually impossible to discuss rationally.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/16/Everyone-is-lying-to-you
And why shouldn't Labour persist with these tried & tested lies? They seem to consistently work in getting the party votes, after all.
The cost of living matter may alter over the coming months, with inflation low and oil prices reportedly due to drop even further. It also takes a while for political sentiment to change. I doubt the deficit or immigration polling will alter. Growth might, but probably won't.
The point is that attitudes to the NHS are based on long term impressions and often misleading ones, so do not change quickly. I have not forgiven Labour for Milburns privatisation or Hewitts demolition of postgraduate medical education. The coalition reforms have their downsides but are largely working well.
Incidentally there were 5 000 more hospital admissions in England last week compared with a year ago. There is a winter crisis looming, even with the extra money.
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/silver-datalab-jeb-1.png?w=610&h=916
http://labourlist.org/2014/12/two-thirds-of-people-dont-support-osbornes-spending-cuts-poll-finds/
Pretty sure two thirds of the public wouldnt support the economy collapsing if debt interest went up by a couple of percent or so because the bond markets dont think they will get their money back. Equally sure two thirds of the public wouldnt like the 15% overnight cuts the chancellor would be forced into making in public spending if no further loans were made available to the country because people think there are better placed to lend their money.
In the week where oil prices halved, and the Rouble fell through the floor, and the month in which there is a real chance of the anti-EU Syriza being elected in Greece, people should be a little less credulous if siren voices that tell them that its okay, we can borrow forever, the interest rates wont increase (which they will at some point), the interest due wont increase (which it is doing all the time) and people will lend us money forever (ask Canada in 1994 about that when its bond auction mostly failed and left it a financial third world country overnight http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/21/lessons-from-canadas-basket-case-moment/)
http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/
It seems most Britons are watermelons.
Inflation is 1% ...
Your last observation is interesting. Why, in your view, are there so many more hospital admissions this year compared to last?
Two sides to every story.
But, even so, the main parties should take note if their policies are vastly more unattractive than the rest.
More seriously, I have a four year old son. Being at a hotel where he can run run around, build sandcastles, swim, etc, is a godsend in the depths of winter.
Obviously both levels of government do loads of other things, but they don't spring to mind so readily for most people - yeah, they run the economy though it seems increasingly outsourced to global markets, they defend us from hypothetical invaders, they build flood defences, they sometimes fix the roads. Only education really is up there as similarly directly important, and most people would struggle to tell you exactly which part of government is responsible for that, because in practice it's divided. The cost of living is up there too, but again people aren't sure how much relates to the national government.
Immigration fits up to a point - most people see it as a function of government and they're aware that there are more foreigners around than there used to be. Tony Blair once said to me that he didn't think most people were especially worried by foreigners per se, but they were horrified by any impression that the government had lost control, with people clinging to the underside of lorries in the Channel Tunnel etc. Since EU membership does objectively mean that we don't control it, many people are grumpy about the perceived failure.
(As usual, I'm commenting on what most people seem to think, not my personal view.)
As Russia battles it's weak financial position, notice how it is moving western markets.
Not only is the western world grinding down to a full stop - however brief - for Xmas, but there is more than a sniff of deflation around.
It could mean a whole new ball game for the New Year. Will it be sustained enough to affect the GE in May? Well thats the question.
And why shouldn't Labour persist with these tried & tested lies? They seem to consistently work in getting the party votes, after all.
How long did the Tories give us to save the pound?
from the Teleg
"Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s."
Bit wimpy - perhaps it isn't such a big deal. But very funny - Putin getting his just rewards - couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
But at least it keeps PBers something to natter about.
The 99p litre of petrol is on its way back: Prices set to dip below £1 in early January as cost of barrel of oil continues to fall
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2877022/The-99p-litre-petrol-way-Prices-set-dip-1-early-January-cost-barrel-oil-continues-fall.html#ixzz3M8zetH8K
If Hamas is terrorist, the Israeli government must be more so.
One wouldn't have described the Soviet Union as being led by a terrorist organisation, for example, though many people were indeed terrified of them.
It's not like the world is divided between terrorists and good people, and if one doesn't agree that Hamas are terrorists then it implies one thinks they are good people.
Texas is being hit hard. High cost oil producers, unable to devalue to spur manufacturing or tourism, high debt burden.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/fed-bubble-bursts-in-550-billion-of-energy-debt-credit-markets.html
Hospital admissions are up mostly because last year was significantly more mild weatherwise, and less flu. So far the NHS seems to be coping, but several hospitals have had to declare incidents and move to crisis management. We did in Leicester last Tuesday because of the number of emergencies in A and E.
The Conservatives
Taking this as a reasonable representation of the opinion polls and it is immediately apparent that the Conservative level of support has been exceptionally stable since ~August 2013 - a period of 16 months.
It is therefore not entirely unreasonable to suppose that it will remain at this level until polling day itself. The next question is: what is this level?
The last dozen Populus polls give an average support of 33.1%.
The last dozen YouGov polls: 32.3%
The last half-dozen Ashcroft: 29.3%
The last half-dozen ICM: 31.8%
For the sake of argument, I'll take the top of this range: 33%. We can then use UNS to work out what level of support Labour must be reduced to for Cameron to remain as PM = 29.5%. This would be just marginally down on their 2010 support.
UNS across Great Britain ignores the effect of the SNP on Labour seat totals, so if we assume that Labour will lose 25 seats to the SNP, then Cameron will probably remain as PM when GB-wide UNS has the Conservatives 25 seats behind Labour.
Cameron's continued tenure in Number 10 Downing Street, may require a national vote lead of just over 1%.
So, can Labour be reduced to below 32% of the vote...?
"UKIP had another strong month in November, with Mark Reckless, their second defection from the Conservatives, comfortably elected in UKIP colours in a seat without a demographic pro-UKIP lean. The sustained upward trend in UKIP support continues for another month, as Farage’s insurgents rise to 16.2%, a new record, up one point on last month. The pollsters have now arrived at a clearer consensus on UKIP support, reflected in the narrower “confidence interval” in our estimate, shown by the dashed lines. Farage and his colleagues will certainly be among the nation’s most confident politicians going into Christmas break. A year ago, many doubted that the party could convert their rising support into Westminster seats. No longer. Now the questions under heated discussion at political Christmas parties will be: “how many seats? Where? From whom?” The party can take great pride in its achievements to date, but longer term challenges remain. Even if it were to win 10 seats, the top end of most expectations, that would see 15% of the vote converted to less than 2% of the elected parliamentary intake."
http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/12/17/polling-observatory-43/