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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent
The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up.
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LibLabServatives on the rise.
Also interesting to see the public want a permanent budget deficit.
Interesting.
Scottish (Survation) prediction competition entries are now closed.
Average SNP Lead prediction = 16.71%
They aren't interested in betting, they want their man to win.
BT are about to park an entire Armoured division or two on Sky's lawn.
They've just offered £12 billion for EE, they are about to go for quad play services and end Sky's dominance.
(ducks for cover)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B47fGu8CEAATfih.jpg
If voters are returning to the LDs, the intriguing aspect is which voters, and where. It's possible for an increase in the LD vote to help the Tories, or Labour, or neither. If they're anti-Tory tactical voters returning to the LD fold, that could be very damaging for the Tories. On the other hand if they're the famed post 2010 LD-to-Labour switchers, then some Lab/Con marginals may get safer for the Conservatives. If they're Green, UKIP or abstainers returning, I'd guess that would have a more neutral effect, perhaps saving some extra LD seats but not really helping either big party particularly (except if enough were saved for Clegg to keep his job, with enough MPs to form another coalition with Cameron).
But on balance, I think it's risky to make too many assumptions about the actual result until Feb/Mar. These kinds of polling movements in the meantime will potentially be good for trading though.
Hohoho!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2873911/Outcry-Burnham-claims-Mid-Staffs-probe-mistake-Labour-accused-insulting-victims-saying-better-report-never-published.html
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B47hItCCQAA-vds.jpg
I said before the season started that they would struggle, I posted it on here. I backed Utd to finish above them amongst other bets against them.
Ouch.
SNP 36 Lab 21 Lib Dem 15 Con 12
I'm really starting to actively want them to lose, because I fear they'd take the wrong lessons from a "win" this time.
Personally I don't believe that public bodies have the right to keep secrets from their owners, ie me.
BBC rights go to 2017 inclusive I think.
Tuesday's FT front page:
Plunging crude prices threaten the axe for $1tn of energy projects
#tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/lCeWdZy5hw
Stock up on candles and Grey Goose.
DYOR.
I always assumed Oxfordshire was "wet Tory" central.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B47lYstIcAAgdqQ.jpg
I thought Wimbledon was a terrestrially protected species.
It costs a lot of money, they don't have the channel capacity to show every match, and Andy Murray's best years are behind him.
2% ahead in all 3 polls
But a couple of reasonable polls for Labour there.
Just think back to those "last days of Rome" type days when Labour were 10%+ ahead.
Get in.
First Susanna Reid....
Straws in the wind?
Today's polling
#Ukip down 2 with #Comres
#Ukip down 2 with #Yougov
#Ukip down 2 with #populus
Compares to an average of 1.21% over the previous 15 days (19 polls).
Positive for Lab but not a big enough sample yet to say lead has actually widened.
But UKIP falling is encouraging for Con long term - because if UKIP does start falling it will encourage the wasted vote narrative and the fall could then gather momentum.
One day, this generation of politicians will make a fascinating case study in "narcissism of minor differences".
Oxford itself in an entity unto itself within the county, feeling like a virtual one party state for Labour since 2010 with a few random LDs representing some of the wealthier bits. This, IMO, is largely down to the absolutely massive public sector employment, combined with a fair amount of manufacturing still. Mind you, the shift in voting patterns in the city over 30-40 years must be one of the more dramatic changes in the country. To think, it used to be a Tory council. Russia is getting pounded and blood is in the water. I heard a rumour that Rosneft is planning to use proceeds of a recent multibillion bond issue simply to buy dollars. Wow...
Revealed here for the first time, the image shows the disgraced former Tory MP speaking, as guest of honour, to an expatriate club that calls for a return of “civilised rule” to South Africa.
Taken just four years after Nelson Mandela’s election ended decades of brutal apartheid, the photo of the meeting of the Springbok Club – which flies the apartheid-era flag – emerges at a time when Mr Hamilton’s past threatens to divide Ukip and thwart his attempts to return to parliament 17 years after the “cash-for-questions” scandal forced him out.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/picture-exclusive-ukips-neil-hamilton-and-the-club-that-wants-civilised-rule-restored-in-south-africa-9927119.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30475232
"Early January has long been regarded as the best moment to take a reading of the levels of support for each party. With little political news or activity over the Christmas break people tend to tune out of politics and current affairs, providing an ideal opportunity to gauge voters’ views with minimal adulteration from passing news events."