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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main driver of the GE2015 outcome will be what 2010 LDs

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Presumably all the pollsters' staff need to be CRB-vetted.

    Yup, and you need parents' consent, and the question goes

    "Do you have any children that will sixteen years old in September 2014"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    I wonder if a certain Lib-Dem inclined pernsioner from Bedford who is currently on holiday, might swingback the narrative of his PoliticalBetting website more towards "Dave" now that appears Labour intends to take all his freebies off him! ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:


    Not on this one. Definitely remember some gloating.

    I can't even be arsed asking for the most vestigial proof of that.
    The only 'gloating' I can remember is one Nat poster betting against one of the smugger Tories that in his political judgement it was a point of principle for the SNP to have 16 & 17 year olds included in the referendum and it wouldn't be given up. He won his bet ergo some well deserved gloating.

    It's not worth the hassle of going back to try and find the posts, but it was essential making the point that Salmond had run rings around Cameron in terms of the negotiation - and in particular the age extension was a masterstroke that Cameron had not understood.

    But there are a couple of posters on here who take the view that everything Salmond does is masterful rather than (more realistically) looking at him as just another politician, probably better than average, but one that has only been tested in a relatively small pool
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the subject of Ed Balls's big speech, the Have Your Sayers are not inclined to give it a fair hearing. Here are the current top five comments by popularity:

    "He'll spend more means testing people and correcting errors than he will save. He knows this. You know this. We all know this."


    "Does Balls really think we believe this nonsense? For the 13 years he and his party were in power they spent money like it was going out of fashion. Now there is none left.

    This gimmick will save virtually nothing when compared to the size of the deficit.

    Nobody trusts them and nobody believes them."


    "He was responsible with Brown for all the problems we have. Him, his wife and all MP's that fiddled their expenses should have been banned from standing for the last election"


    "The solution to this is not MORE means-testing. It's reforming the tax and welfare system so that it is SIMPLE, and ensures that work pays, the vunerable are protected and honesty is rewarded. At present there are too many loopholes that the weakest fall through and the richest exploit."


    "So 'discipline' is the new 'prudent'.

    Heard it all before.

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
  • How do those figures compare to similar polling in previous cycles? my recollection is that there is usually a degree of 'unwind' among Lib Dem voters but that many then return to the fold. I'd expect a very large proportion of the 'Undecideds' to end up going back to the Lib Dems, and that they'll pick up a good chunk of those currently saying Labour in their Tory facing marginals too. What really matters is what former Lib Dem voters decide to do in the Lab/Con marginals.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I see Trevor Kavanagh describes poor Ed Miliband as being 'marxist born' which is entirely unfair.

    I doubt even Ed came out of the womb wibbling on about the means of production!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Financier said:

    KAVANAGH: Why Red Ed will never lead Britain

    ED MILIBAND may not yet be seen by voters as a political joke but he is fast becoming Labour's new Neil Kinnock, which is almost as bad.

    The accident-prone “Welsh Windbag” led his party to its knees in resounding election defeats, all the while convinced he was actually on the road to victory.


    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4952212/KAVANAGH-Why-Red-Ed-will-never-lead-Britain.html#ixzz2V90Tcfff



    What odds The Sun comes out for UKIP in the next election?

    That editorial is likely to resonate with its readers in my opinion.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Whenever I hear Iron Discipline, I'm reminded of Warhammer invasion, and the Iron Discipline card

    Action: Target one unit. Until the end of the turn, cancel any other action that targets this unit unless the action's controller pays an additional 4 resources (per action).

    http://deckbox.org/whi/Iron Discipline
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:


    What odds The Sun comes out for UKIP in the next election?

    What odds would tempt you?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    tim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if a certain Lib-Dem inclined pernsioner from Bedford who is currently on holiday, might swingback the narrative of his PoliticalBetting website more towards "Dave" now that appears Labour intends to take all his freebies off him! ;)

    I seem to remember Mike supporting the removal of some pensioner benefits, after all it's Lib Dem policy isn't it?



    I'm only joking. ;)

    I'm still waiitng to hear what Labour will do about the "Bedroom tax"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Harry Lloyd as the next Doctor at 25/1 looks tempting

    http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/next-doctor-who/winner
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited June 2013
    £40bn - the cost of going green.

    Very interesting report in the ST yesterday (read it on flight) that shows that energy companies can hit carbon targets and save cash with a "dash for gas".

    "This report shows that current plans for investing in renewables and nuclear energy risks burdening the struggling British economy with unnecessarily high energy bills. The research, to be published this week, recommends instead investing in a new fleet of efficient gas-fired power stations.

    A.T. Kearney estimates that the cost of building and operating new plants, mostly wind farms is £72.7bn compared with £32.5bn for the new gas-fired power stations that would release half the emissions of coal-fired plants.

    Mark Powell, author of the AT Kearney report said, "We have headed down the road to green transition without fully thinking through the potential consequences and without considering how to achieve the transition at the lowest cost possible. We need to have the courage to stop the policy juggernaut."....

    Cuadrilla Resources claims it has found enough gas in the Bowland shale to supply Britain for 70 years".

    Problem is will Ed Davey and the Green-keen LDs agree or obstruct?

    Sunday Times Business Page 1.

    and on Page 7 - Why we have the world's costliest energy.

    This concludes, "The upshot is that British industry will be lumbered with rising carbon charges while their European counterparts see their bills plummet."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2013
    Neil said:

    isam said:


    What odds The Sun comes out for UKIP in the next election?

    What odds would tempt you?
    Im not Gordon Brown selling gold! Make me an offer?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    and Hugh Laurie at 100/1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    edited June 2013
    Mr. Eagles, had to google his name, but I quite liked Harry Lloyd in Game of Thrones.

    His commentary (with a few other cast members) was one of the most entertaining on the season 1 Game of Thrones DVD.
  • BoredInParisBoredInParis Posts: 46
    edited June 2013
    A mate who is somewhat in the know has posted on FB the name he's been told. I have literally no idea who he is and even wikipedia hasn't really put any meat to the bones.

    Olivia Colman would be superb tbh, but only if they bring back Romana's next incarnation. Played by Brian Blessed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For the new Doctor Who, they should go for someone much older and rather steelier than the last couple. If they want to challenge boundaries, then from that list Helen Mirren would be a fantastic choice (but not at 27/1). Andy Serkis at 50/1 would be good too. Tilda Swinton would also be a very unsettling Doctor Who, so again if the idea of a female Doctor Who is being pursued, she'd be good.

    I'd avoid all the comics. Doctor Who needs to be a bit scary at times as well as clever and witty.

    But I expect that Rupert Grint is fairly short odds for a reason. It's not as if he needs to do it for the money.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053


    That poll is very interesting for a variety of reasons

    1) It's by Market Research UK, whose polling on past Scottish elections makes them as accurate as an American war movie or Braveheart

    Addendum: They don't seem to have improved much - the parents of the children questioned break down as c. 17% Yes, 59% No, 24% Undecided, way off normal adult polling.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, Hugh Laurie would be excellent, but I can't see it happening.

    I don't think a woman should get the job. The Doctor's a bloke. Plus, if they want a female Time Lord then there's the obvious option of bringing back Romana.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Financier said:

    £40bn - the cost of going green.

    Very interesting report in the ST yesterday (read it on flight) that shows that energy companies can hit carbon targets and save cash with a "dash for gas".

    "This report shows that current plans for investing in renewables and nuclear energy risks burdening the struggling British economy with unnecessarily high energy bills. The research, to be published this week, recommends instead investing in a new fleet of efficient gas-fired power stations.

    A.T. Kearney estimates that the cost of building and operating new plants, mostly wind farms is £72.7bn compared with £32.5bn for the new gas-fired power stations that would release half the emissions of coal-fired plants.

    Mark Powell, author of the AT Kearney report said, "We have headed down the road to green transition without fully thinking through the potential consequences and without considering how to achieve the transition at the lowest cost possible. We need to have the courage to stop the policy juggernaut."....

    Cuadrilla Resources claims it has found enough gas in the Bowland shale to supply Britain for 70 years".

    Problem is will Ed Davey and the Green-keen LDs agree or obstruct?

    Sunday Times Business Page 1.

    and on Page 7 - Why we have the world's costliest energy.

    This concludes, "The upshot is that British industry will be lumbered with rising carbon charges while their European counterparts see their bills plummet."

    "Brussels challenges Germany's energy revoluion"
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/european-commission-set-to-fight-german-energy-subsidies-a-902269.html

    In another article German industy thinks of relocating to the USA for cheaper energy, being sandwiched beteen low wages to the East and high energy costs at home.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    @Mr Dancer - Harry Lloyd also starred in the two part episodes about the Family of Blood with Tennant's Doctor, and the Doctor has to be a man, but I could cope if Karen Gillan became the 12th Doctor

    @Antifrank - I'd like it to be a ginger Doctor, but my first choice would be Damian Lewis, but I suspect he's going to be starring in Homeland for quite a few years yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774


    That poll is very interesting for a variety of reasons

    1) It's by Market Research UK, whose polling on past Scottish elections makes them as accurate as an American war movie or Braveheart

    Addendum: They don't seem to have improved much - the parents of the children questioned break down as c. 17% Yes, 59% No, 24% Undecided, way off normal adult polling.
    Indeed, IIRC it was in the 2007 elections they were the official pollster for the Scotman, and had polling that was massively out of kilter with everyone else, and made the Scotsman look a bit silly when the final results were published.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    This statement seems a little contradictory.

    Worries over the future of American stimulus measures were heightened by better-than-forecast economic data on Friday, which helped push the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.4pc. The broader S&P 500 index was also under pressure and lost 1.4pc at the end of last week.

    Are the markets addicted to central bank intervention rather than real growth?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    @Morris_Dancer

    They should bring back the Rani.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Sorely tempted to do a Next Doctor Who Betting thread this evening instead of Nighthawks.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Harry Lloyd as the next Doctor at 25/1 looks tempting

    http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/next-doctor-who/winner

    Harry Lloyd? I thought he died decades ago. Oh not that Harry Lloyd then. ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    I think I missed the Family of Blood two-parter. Not sure why.

    There's precedent for characters to return, though. Martha previously appeared in a minor role when the cybermen and daleks tore up Canary Wharf, for example.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    SeanT said:

    Calm down everyone, I've done a Telegraph blog which proves mine is the only really valid opinion in the UK. So we can save a lot of bother and close down pb.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100219926/note-to-lefty-columnists-i-am-the-most-underprivileged-person-in-britain/

    Cornish is an ethnic minority?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    I thought the next Doc WHo was going to be John Hurt :/ ??!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    I think I missed the Family of Blood two-parter. Not sure why.

    There's precedent for characters to return, though. Martha previously appeared in a minor role when the cybermen and daleks tore up Canary Wharf, for example.

    They were two of the best episodes of the Tennant era, really poignant,
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, the Rani's before my time.

    Isn't she widely disliked? Better to bring back Romana.

    Incidentally, when's the 50th Anniversary special due?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    My vote would got for Laurence Fox!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    I'm not sure the Bilderberg group is all that powerful and knowledgeable.

    I mean Why on earth are they having a meeting in the dingy sooks of Watford?

    I mean Watford, FFS

    http://news.sky.com/story/1098701/bilderberg-2013-at-watfords-grove-hotel
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    SeanT said:

    Calm down everyone, I've done a Telegraph blog which proves mine is the only really valid opinion in the UK. So we can save a lot of bother and close down pb.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100219926/note-to-lefty-columnists-i-am-the-most-underprivileged-person-in-britain/

    Cornish is an ethnic minority?

    It is a duet of moral vanity and bourgeois guilt

    Nice turn of phrase
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Mr. Eagles, the Rani's before my time.

    Isn't she widely disliked? Better to bring back Romana.

    Incidentally, when's the 50th Anniversary special due?

    The Rani is the Jar Jar Binks of the Doctor Who Universe

    The 50th Anniversary airs the 23rd of November
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Oh, gosh, Dr Who betting:

    I've watched a few of the short-platform Matt Smith episodes and have enjoyed them (in a completely cartoonish fashion). His performance's match Pertwee's whilst just fail to be swivelled-eyed enough to be placed alongside Tom Baker [PBUDW].

    But I like the vibes from antifrank: A steely-eyed, cold-and-calculating new Dr. It has to be the so-sh@gg@ble Tilda Swinton. As her assistant, someone electic: Eddie Izzard...?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    What is it with people called Abu Hamza?

    lucy manning ‏@lucymanning 22s

    Michael Adebolajo asks in court to be called Mujaheed Abu Hamza.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Blue_rog said:

    My vote would got for Laurence Fox!

    Not another young pretty boy (well, 'quirky' in Matt Smith's case) - antifrank is right - we need a shift to an older person - the reason the dynamic between the Doctor and Donna Noble (which I thought would be a disaster) worked so well was that the older character was prepared to stand up to him & call him out on things - something the younger side kicks rarely do.....what was John Hurt doing at the end of the last episode?
  • I'm not sure the Bilderberg group is all that powerful and knowledgeable.

    I mean Why on earth are they having a meeting in the dingy sooks of Watford?

    I mean Watford, FFS

    http://news.sky.com/story/1098701/bilderberg-2013-at-watfords-grove-hotel

    I went to function there once.
    Quite a posh hotel even if they did let me in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Blue_rog said:

    My vote would got for Laurence Fox!

    Not another young pretty boy (well, 'quirky' in Matt Smith's case) - antifrank is right - we need a shift to an older person - the reason the dynamic between the Doctor and Donna Noble (which I thought would be a disaster) worked so well was that the older character was prepared to stand up to him & call him out on things - something the younger side kicks rarely do.....what was John Hurt doing at the end of the last episode?
    John Hurt is the Valeyard, I think.

    Though I would like to see Matt Smith regenerate into John Hurt, but with John Hurt bursting out of Matt Smith's chest.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    @Socrates.

    Without clicking I'm prepared to bet that the stories you found involve Muslims doing bad things?

    Am I close?

    What was it about the terms "Islamic cleric", "decrees", "ok" and "rape" in the link address that gave it away?

    Presumably, this is the point when your condemnation goes to the person sharing the story rather than the evil men encouraging rape and murder?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, possible, the other theories that seem to be doing the rounds are that he's the true ninth Doctor (who fought in the Time War), or that he's a precursor to the Doctor [I don't like that, though].

    Damned shame Jacobi wasn't kept as the Master. Hurt as the Doctor and Jacobi as the Master would've been quite interesting to watch.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Mr. Eagles, possible, the other theories that seem to be doing the rounds are that he's the true ninth Doctor (who fought in the Time War), or that he's a precursor to the Doctor [I don't like that, though].

    Damned shame Jacobi wasn't kept as the Master. Hurt as the Doctor and Jacobi as the Master would've been quite interesting to watch.

    I like that theory, which would mean the next Doctor would be the 13th and final Doctor.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Final?

    Hardly. The Master proved that 13 is only unlucky for some.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates.

    Without clicking I'm prepared to bet that the stories you found involve Muslims doing bad things?

    Am I close?

    What was it about the terms "Islamic cleric", "decrees", "ok" and "rape" in the link address that gave it away?

    Presumably, this is the point when your condemnation goes to the person sharing the story rather than the evil men encouraging rape and murder?
    I read that story two months ago on anti-Obama conspiracy sites, it's dated April 3rd

    http://www.humanevents.com/2013/04/02/islamic-cleric-rape-of-non-muslim-syrian-women-permitted/

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Qb5KccUyc



    No idea whether it's true or not, but your sources appear to be rooted in the fringes of anti-Obama extremist fringe groups in the US.

    I'm doubtful as to whether you knew what you were posting,looked at the date or evaluated the sources.
    But I think we all know why that is.
    I didn't realise it was from April. It was the tenth link on reddit's world news section today.

    Do you have evidence it's untrue?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Final?

    Hardly. The Master proved that 13 is only unlucky for some.

    Well in classic Who, the Doctor only had 12 regenerations, but for the time war they restored the Master when he used up all his.

    But I can't imagine the BBC ending their most commercially successful show based on a throwaway line from 40 years ago.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Dr. Who.

    The Beeb's favourite girl is Miranda Hart, and so if it was to be a laydeh, it wouldn't suprise me if it were her (complete with ironic humour).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    edited June 2013
    Mr. Eagles, I was more thinking of the aftermath of Logopolis and The Deadly Assassin. Wasn't the Master meant to run out of regenerations during Tom Baker's time?

    Edited extra bit: The Deadly Assassin is a stupid title.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Second best headline of the weekend

    Woman kept awake at night by ants ringing doorbell

    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/odd/news/a486325/woman-kept-awake-at-night-by-ants-ringing-doorbell.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited June 2013

    Mr. Eagles, I was more thinking of the aftermath of Logopolis and The Deadly Assassin. Wasn't the Master meant to run out of regenerations during Tom Baker's time?

    Edited extra bit: The Deadly Assassin is a stupid title.

    How can you say The Rani was before your time, but reference Tom Baker's Doctor?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if a certain Lib-Dem inclined pernsioner from Bedford who is currently on holiday, might swingback the narrative of his PoliticalBetting website more towards "Dave" now that appears Labour intends to take all his freebies off him! ;)

    That's a bit cheap. I've long supported curbing pensioner perks for the well off as many post on here will support.

    I like my bus pass and if tax or charge is put on it then I would opt to pay.

    Ed Balls and Nick Clegg are right on this. Cameron, who made a stupid pledge during the final TV debate in May 2010 is wrong

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Didn't Doctor Who have all his regenerations topped up at some point in the late 1970s/early 1980s?

    And in strict Whovian mythology, William Hartnell wasn't the first incarnation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, I read some of the books, I have one or two DVDs, and as a child I watched repeats on BBC2 which mostly featured Jon Pertwee and Tom Baker.

    Do not doubt the word of the Dancer!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    antifrank said:

    Didn't Doctor Who have all his regenerations topped up at some point in the late 1970s/early 1980s?

    And in strict Whovian mythology, William Hartnell wasn't the first incarnation.

    Well when Patrick Troughton regenerated, he had a flashback to all the previous Doctors, and there was more than just William Hartnell
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates.

    Without clicking I'm prepared to bet that the stories you found involve Muslims doing bad things?

    Am I close?

    What was it about the terms "Islamic cleric", "decrees", "ok" and "rape" in the link address that gave it away?

    Presumably, this is the point when your condemnation goes to the person sharing the story rather than the evil men encouraging rape and murder?
    I read that story two months ago on anti-Obama conspiracy sites, it's dated April 3rd

    http://www.humanevents.com/2013/04/02/islamic-cleric-rape-of-non-muslim-syrian-women-permitted/

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Qb5KccUyc



    No idea whether it's true or not, but your sources appear to be rooted in the fringes of anti-Obama extremist fringe groups in the US.

    I'm doubtful as to whether you knew what you were posting,looked at the date or evaluated the sources.
    But I think we all know why that is.
    I didn't realise it was from April. It was the tenth link on reddit's world news section today.

    Do you have evidence it's untrue?
    No idea whether it's true or not, I don't speak Arabic.

    Here's the original story

    http://www.humanevents.com/2013/04/02/islamic-cleric-rape-of-non-muslim-syrian-women-permitted/

    Here's the author's latest piece

    OBAMA ADMINISTRATION CALLS FOR THE ‘HUMAN RIGHTS’ OF JIHADIS

    http://www.humanevents.com/2013/05/31/obama-administration-calls-for-the-human-rights-of-jihadis/

    You've sunk beneath the waves of anti-Obama paranoia, don't rely on me to pull you out by researching your conspiracy sites any further.
    The story I linked was then reported by the Washington Times, who would have done their own fact-checking. Are you arguing the Washington Times is not a credible source?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    Morning all.

    The problem Labour have with their piddling U-turn on winter fuel payments is not just that it is a U-turn, it is that their entire approach has been confused and shrill. When Osborne made the very straightforward and (one would have thought) completely uncontroversial observation that it's wasteful to spend nearly £3bn a year on welfare payments to the very well-off in the form of Child Benefit, they made a ridiculous fuss about the so-called 'principle' of universality. Of course that was bonkers. There's no such principle, instead there was a largely painless £3bn saving to be made which affects precisely zero lower-income families - and there aren't many measures available to the government which are simultaneously painless and save a chunky sum.

    With the winter fuel allowance, we have an example of a measure which, though equally painless, saves tuppence-ha'penny and is hardly worth the administrative hassle. OK, one can argue that, though small, it's a saving we might as well have, but it blows the 'principle' out of the water. If you can save £100m by abandoning universality, why not save £3bn? It's just a completely incoherent position - and an excellent example of the mess Miliband has got himself into with his so-called blank piece of paper. As I've observed before, it's not blank, it's full of sensible measures which the coalition have proposed but which Miliband has crossed out. The problem is that the savings which haven't been crossed out don't amount to a hill of beans; Labour's remaining room for manoeuvre literally doesn't add up.

    Painless? Painless? Have you any idea what this has done to my Chablis budget?

    Otherwise I agree.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Mullahs calling for Islamic rapes in Syria is not news. I can't be arsed to register at militaryphotos.net (nor find the relevant section) but it is old news. Maybe some people - recently "door-stepped" - should open their internet eyes...?

    :wee-timmy-wrong-again:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    One poster, probably worried about the effects on the UK of mass immigration by Muslims, demonises Islam while another stokes up the argument by refusing to condemn it at any cost.

    Who knew?

    The Road to National Suicide...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So Labour are going to get tough on spending in just 3 areas:

    1) Winter Fuel for millionaires
    2) Free schools
    3) Police commissioners.

    Total savings ? Less than £0.5Bn?

    Balls is a laughing stock.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    One poster, probably worried about the effects on the UK of mass immigration by Muslims, demonises Islam while another stokes up the argument by refusing to condemn it at any cost.

    Who knew?

    The Road to National Suicide...

    I won't demonise a whole a religion. There are very large numbers of Muslims who are decent people who support a humane, pluralistic, democratic society. All I seek to do is to get people to appreciate just how many don't.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2013
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    One poster, probably worried about the effects on the UK of mass immigration by Muslims, demonises Islam while another stokes up the argument by refusing to condemn it at any cost.

    Who knew?

    The Road to National Suicide...

    I won't demonise a whole a religion. There are very large numbers of Muslims who are decent people who support a humane, pluralistic, democratic society. All I seek to do is to get people to appreciate just how many don't.
    Fair enough, sorry. "demonises Islamic extremism" would be more accurate

    You should read "The Road To National Suicide"
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2013
    tim said:



    Depends on what you are looking for.
    If you want a Moonie-funded far right propaganda sheet that links Obama's health reforms to Nazi Germany I'm sure you'll regard it as sound

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Times

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/14/health/policy/14panel.html?bl&ex=1250481600&en=62116d8ea4946a79&ei=5087 &_r=0

    You do know Woodward and Bernstein wrote for the Post, not the Times do you?

    But as you have been driven to the furthest reaches of the far right by your Muslim fixation I'm sure none of us are surprised by your sources any more.

    As I say, no idea what the "Sheikh" said, but I know it's two months old and very popular on Infowars etc.

    I will regularly disagree with their editorials, but I have not previously seen factual problems with their reporting sections. What is your evidence that the reporting of the newspaper is "far right"?

    What is the issue with being funded by a member of the Unification Church?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Seems someone finds Cameron persuasive: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10095186/Merkel-curbs-plan-to-hand-powers-to-Brussels.html

    Also this is really excellent news on manufacturing: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10095373/UK-manufacturing-output-jumps-in-May.html

    The recovery remains patchy. The fall in business lending (despite Osborne's lending scheme) is a concern but if production can join consumption we can maintain lift off. OGH has really underestimated the implications of this for his bet.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013
    Socrates said:

    I won't demonise a whole a religion. There are very large numbers of Muslims who are decent people who support a humane, pluralistic, democratic society. All I seek to do is to get people to appreciate just how many don't.

    Wee-Timmy would appear to think only through a postal-vote filter. I, obviously, know more Muslims than he will see in his life-span. I also know more about "cultural" islam and the posited, political reality that dwells within his narrow-mind.

    Wee-Timmy has a lot to offer this site but lacks a/any life-experience: He is fortunate in many ways but suffers in others. Whether pity or contempt should be delivered-unto-him as he-delivers-unto-others is debatable.

    The best thing to do is challenge him when he is obviously clueless (as I did and expect him to pay £50 in July to OGH's site). What people have to accept is: When he is floundering for attention he is best read, threaded and ignored....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed Davey wants the press gagged on climate change scams

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/10095188/Ed-Davey-attacks-papers-who-report-destructive-climate-sceptics.html

    "Newspapers are wrong to give a “platform” for campaigners and groups that question whether climate change is caused by human activity, Ed Davey, the energy secretary, will say."

    Liberal my rear end.
  • antifrank said:

    Didn't Doctor Who have all his regenerations topped up at some point in the late 1970s/early 1980s?

    And in strict Whovian mythology, William Hartnell wasn't the first incarnation.

    Well when Patrick Troughton regenerated, he had a flashback to all the previous Doctors, and there was more than just William Hartnell
    Alternate faces, I thought?

    The flashback to potential previous doctors as in The Brain of Morbius.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    So Labour are going to get tough on spending in just 3 areas:

    1) Winter Fuel for millionaires
    2) Free schools
    3) Police commissioners.

    Total savings ? Less than £0.5Bn?

    Balls is a laughing stock.

    And he has trashed the principle of universality - and will get asked from here to the GE "What's next? Bus passes, Child Benefit, TV licences and so on and so on - we saw the start of it on R4 this morning at 7 and its continued on the Daily Politics.....

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'The Don't Let Labour Ruin Us Again campaign could prove pretty powerful.'

    That's the easy bit. The 'Don;t Let Ed In By Voting For Nigel Farage' campaign could prove much trickier.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SeanT I wouldn't overegg it. It's unlikely that any recovery is going to be very exciting.

    It's also important to see where any recovery occurs. Right now it seems to be happening in exactly the places that are of least use to the Coalition electorally. They need to see some growth in the midlands and Lancashire.

    For all that, Ed Balls's claim today that George Osborne's economic policies had "failed catastrophically" on growth, jobs and deficit reduction looks like a major hostage to fortune. He will be lucky if he doesn't live to regret saying that.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Ah, I see Labour have made a second - and much more significant - U-turn today, which no-one seems to have noticed.

    Exactly as I predicted back in 2010 (to, IIRC, much derision from Labour supporters at the time, except from the ever-sensible Hopi Sen who agreed with me), Balls has finally got round to embracing the OBR in order to try to overcome Labour's credibility problem:

    Instead, Labour will set out, in our general election manifesto, tough fiscal rules that the next Labour government will have to stick to – to get our country’s current budget back to balance and national debt on a downward path.

    Tough rules, which will be independently monitored by the Office for Budget Responsibility.


    The OBR is a major step forward, and will make it much harder for any future Gordon Brown to wreck the economy quite so comprehensively.

    http://labourlist.org/2013/06/ed-balls-reuters-speech-striking-the-right-balance-for-the-british-economy/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    DavidL said:
    Cameron's entire EU policy is based on the idea that there will be a treaty of the full EU in the next parliament, because the Germans can't wait to hand powers to Brussels putting them on the hook for everybody else's debts...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if a certain Lib-Dem inclined pernsioner from Bedford who is currently on holiday, might swingback the narrative of his PoliticalBetting website more towards "Dave" now that appears Labour intends to take all his freebies off him! ;)

    That's a bit cheap. I've long supported curbing pensioner perks for the well off as many post on here will support.

    I like my bus pass and if tax or charge is put on it then I would opt to pay.

    Ed Balls and Nick Clegg are right on this. Cameron, who made a stupid pledge during the final TV debate in May 2010 is wrong

    It was not even in the Tory manifesto. Panic ! Panic ! Panic ! I think Dave should take advice from Boris how to win !
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    TGOHF said:

    So Labour are going to get tough on spending in just 3 areas:

    1) Winter Fuel for millionaires
    2) Free schools
    3) Police commissioners.

    Total savings ? Less than £0.5Bn?

    Balls is a laughing stock.

    Yup.

    I don't understand the strategy at all.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @RichardNabavi

    The creation of an independent OBR is, for me, a strong reason to vote Conservative. They deserve to be rewarded for such a great policy. Unfortunately, they deserve to be punished for other things, so it's going to be a fine balance.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Further to my previous post, here's what Labour were saying at the time I suggested they'd end up embracing the OBR:

    "Right from the start the Tories used the OBR not just as part of the government but as part of the Conservative party. They have succeeded in strangling what could have been a good idea at its birth."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/09/obr-public-sector-job-losses
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795



    The OBR is a major step forward, and will make it much harder for any future Gordon Brown to wreck the economy quite so comprehensively.

    http://labourlist.org/2013/06/ed-balls-reuters-speech-striking-the-right-balance-for-the-british-economy/

    Oh dear me.

    Osborne took just a couple of years to puncture the idea that:

    1. The OBR is independent
    2. That its existence will stop future economic problems.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @BenM Ed Miliband and Ed Balls seem to have fought themselves to a standstill.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Shall we hold him to this?!

    @toadmeister
    @roadto326 @AGilinsky I think the Cons will pull ahead of Labour on education policy by 2015
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    I see Mike Smithson has broken off from his holiday to accuse me of being "cheap"

    Well the truth is... I am....

    And I like it sweet cheeks. :D
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    BenM said:

    Oh dear me.

    Osborne took just a couple of years to puncture the idea that:

    1. The OBR is independent
    2. That its existence will stop future economic problems.

    You're off-message, Ben. Do keep up. Rubbishing the OBR is so 2010. Ed Balls is now telling us how independent it is, and how we can trust Labour because the OBR will independently monitor his plans.

    Exactly as I predicted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    antifrank said:

    @BenM Ed Miliband and Ed Balls seem to have fought themselves to a standstill.

    The two Eds are like Paullus and Varro, and George Osborne is like Hannibal?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Sajid Javid MP @sajidjavid

    @edballsmp where was "iron discipline" when you gave us the deepest peacetime bust; biggest G20 deficit; and, world's largest bank bailout?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Is it confirmed from Ed Balls that Labour will borrow more?

    If so, the the Tory attack lines about Labour always borrowing more write themselves.

    I'm remembering this polling

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/19/nearly-three-years-after-the-coalition-was-formed-lab-is-still-getting-most-blame-for-the-cuts/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Labour's line on borrowing is as convincing as a sex addict asserting that by spending thousands of pounds and days in a brothel he'll get it out of his system and be able to abstain after that.

    Not that the Coalition has cut as much as it should've, but the basis of coalition is policy by the lowest common denominator.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I wouldn't overegg it. It's unlikely that any recovery is going to be very exciting.

    It's also important to see where any recovery occurs. Right now it seems to be happening in exactly the places that are of least use to the Coalition electorally. They need to see some growth in the midlands and Lancashire.

    For all that, Ed Balls's claim today that George Osborne's economic policies had "failed catastrophically" on growth, jobs and deficit reduction looks like a major hostage to fortune. He will be lucky if he doesn't live to regret saying that.

    Assuming he keeps his job...
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013
    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I wouldn't overegg it.

    Oh gosh,

    Is that a sad, lickle, under-powered Koenigs...? A camp, hide-it-in-your-pocket, motor that brings 'the elite' to pleasure?

    Or is it all down to an inbred six-fingered scribble over some dank blackboard of terror and youth? [I can hear the screeches now...!]

    Perchance, it may also be, for Norfolk-sake, that you could not be bothered to use punctuation! I know, from our English Londinium, you despise all those around you; but, please, respect our language...!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Labour's line on borrowing is as convincing as a sex addict asserting that by spending thousands of pounds and days in a brothel he'll get it out of his system and be able to abstain after that.

    Not that the Coalition has cut as much as it should've, but the basis of coalition is policy by the lowest common denominator.

    When I was younger, I started attending a self-help group for sex addicts.

    I didn't have an addiction.

    It was just a great way of meeting sluts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,545

    Labour's line on borrowing is as convincing as a sex addict asserting that by spending thousands of pounds and days in a brothel he'll get it out of his system and be able to abstain after that.

    .

    Doesn't that work, then?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Charles said:


    Assuming he keeps his job...

    Of course he will. Not only does Ed M not have the cullions to ditch him, it would actually be a very bad idea to do so, since it would be an admission that Osborne was right all along. (The second of those arguments applies in reverse to those who think Cameron might ditch Osborne, although it's academic anyway.)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Shadow Treasury minister Chris Leslie insisted on the Today programme this morning that Labour had no plans to means-test other pensioner benefits such as free TV licences and free bus passes

    Can anyone explain why not?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/peter-hain-attacks-labour-plan-remove-winter-fuel-payments-wealthy-pensioners
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    The gang rape of women in wars - from what happens to women in Congo to the deliberate rape of Muslim women by Serb soldiers during the Yugoslavian civil wars to the rape of women in Syria - is an appalling crime, far too serious for petty point scoring by Tim or Socrates or anyone else, frankly.

    It should go without saying that any decent person including, I hope, all on this blog, condemn it unreservedly, though it wouldn't go amiss, occasionally, for this to be said.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited June 2013

    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I wouldn't overegg it.

    Oh gosh,

    Is that a sad, lickle, under-powered Koenigs...? A camp, hide-it-in-your-pocket, motor that brings 'the elite' to pleasure?

    Or is it all down to an inbred six-fingered scribble over some dank blackboard of terror and youth? [I can hear the screeches now...!]

    Perchance, it may also be, for Norfolk-sake, that you could not be bothered to use punctuation! I know, from our English Londinium, you despise all those around you; but, please, respect our language...!
    Gowers' "The Complete Plain Words" says:

    "The author of the style-book of the Oxford University Press of New York (quoted in Perrin's Writer's Guide) says 'If you take hyphens seriously you will surely go mad'. You should not take hyphens seriously."

    Hyphens are the UKIP of the punctuation world.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    Osborne being "right all along" while going into an election with all his forecasts in tatters, deficit reduction stalled and living standards falling?

    That's Balls' line, so ditching Balls would suggest that Balls has been wrong and therefore Osborne has been right.

    Which is why Balls ain't going to be ditched. Well, that and the other reason.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Balls is right on winter fuel payments.

    Im sure hell change his mind on lots of other benfits too in the next couple of years.

    GO has won the argument - the welfare state is to be reigned in by all parties.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    tim said:

    Osborne being "right all along" while going into an election with all his forecasts in tatters, deficit reduction stalled and living standards falling?

    That's Balls' line, so ditching Balls would suggest that Balls has been wrong and therefore Osborne has been right.

    Which is why Balls ain't going to be ditched. Well, that and the other reason.
    Nabavi, you try to pass off as an intelligent person. So, why do you occasionally fall into the partisan idiotic phase ?

    Only on Europe, you seem to use your considerable grey matter.
  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51
    surbiton said:

    tim said:

    Osborne being "right all along" while going into an election with all his forecasts in tatters, deficit reduction stalled and living standards falling?

    That's Balls' line, so ditching Balls would suggest that Balls has been wrong and therefore Osborne has been right.

    Which is why Balls ain't going to be ditched. Well, that and the other reason.
    Nabavi, you try to pass off as an intelligent person. So, why do you occasionally fall into the partisan idiotic phase ?

    Only on Europe, you seem to use your considerable grey matter.
    Agree or disagree, at least he has the guts to put his real name and not be the archetypal internet anonymous abuser.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    When you see the bar chart above, you begin to wonder, what happened behind the scenes at the special Birmingham conference just after the elections. Whatever made the LD's join the coalition ?

    Either the membership is unrepresentative of their voters or, more likely, in the immediate aftermath of Cleggasm they were giving Clegg the benefit of the their collective doubts.

    Even the "protest" element seems to prefer UKIP. Only 5% prepared to vote Tory.

    I cannot see another Tory-LD coalition. Otherwise, the party will simply implode and Alexander, Laws will join the Tories, since they are Tories.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    surbiton said:


    Nabavi, you try to pass off as an intelligent person. So, why do you occasionally fall into the partisan idiotic phase ?.

    Eh? I wasn't being partisan at all, I was pointing out that the political cost of ditching Ed Balls would be very significant, as it would hand an easy argument to Labour's opponents (and that the same applies in reverse to Osborne). That's a betting point more than a partisan point - indeed I've advocated betting on Balls as Next Chancellor on several occasions in the past. (Still an excellent bet at 7/2 for anyone who can get on with Paddy Power - Ladbrokes have this at a much more realistic 7/4).
This discussion has been closed.