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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    corporeal said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Revealed: How Nigel Farage begged Enoch Powell to give a speech for him in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election. Powell said no. @Telegraph

    @TelePolitics: Nigel Farage and Enoch Powell: the full story of Ukip's links with the 'Rivers of Blood' politician http://t.co/NAlWz4D7BU

    So what! Is this story supposed to kill UKIP stone dead? Another epic fail by the MSM.
    If there had been more British politicians of Enoch Powell's calibre, Britain would have been a much more pleasant place to live, than now is the case.
    The story's supposed to generate clicks and sell papers.
    And give UKIP more free publicity?

    Wonder what they will come up with next. Nigel Farage ate my hamster?
    Is that because it is an import? Or despite? Wouldn't a dormouse be more PC?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    Talking of Enoch Powell, here is a song about him by the wonderfully informed and talented Russell Brand

    He is lampooning Powell for his supposed hatred of gays. That's despite Powell almost certainly having homosexual relationships himself, and voting in favour of homosexual rights

    Ah the ignorant progressives... so full of themselves

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFSVD1DTnvs
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Telegraph has a story about David Miliband possible return to politics...

    I can't see any problems with that, I mean that report on the CIA didn't have anything bad in it.

    The beeb get confused enough about his brothers name as it is.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Revealed: How Nigel Farage begged Enoch Powell to give a speech for him in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election. Powell said no. @Telegraph

    @TelePolitics: Nigel Farage and Enoch Powell: the full story of Ukip's links with the 'Rivers of Blood' politician http://t.co/NAlWz4D7BU

    So what! Is this story supposed to kill UKIP stone dead? Another epic fail by the MSM.
    If there had been more British politicians of Enoch Powell's calibre, Britain would have been a much more pleasant place to live, than now is the case.
    How many foreign medical personnel have been involved in your treatment?
    Who first introduced mass use of immigrant Doctors and Nurses to the NHS? Do you know?
    Presume you mean Enoch Powell as Minister of Health.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    UKIP Today news channel needed at this rate and both totally rock-solid sources for these stories... cough

    1m Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
    the Stuart Wheeler/Nigel Farage ferrets in the UKIP sack will be fun to watch. Hearing that Douglas Carswell is very uncomfortable with NF

    5m Iain Dale @IainDale
    Blogpost - EXCLUSIVE: Paul Sykes to Cease UKIP Party Funding. http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/12/exclusive-paul-sykes-to-cease-funding-ukip

    So this is why UKIP accepted Mr Reckless? Pity he's not going to cling on looking at the odds.

    Jim Pickard @PickardJE
    Curiously parties get money per seat and per 200 votes, meaning cash bonanza for Ukip after election as long as it gets at least two.

    If Carswell cannot stand Farage why did he leave the Tories? Farage cannot have come as that big a surprise can he?
    Carswell's chances of leading a party are greater with UKIP?
    Carswell being a serial rebel in the Conservative Party he never would have achieved high office with Cameron as leader and probably not with any other leader. He was always attacking the government on TV.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Revealed: How Nigel Farage begged Enoch Powell to give a speech for him in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election. Powell said no. @Telegraph

    @TelePolitics: Nigel Farage and Enoch Powell: the full story of Ukip's links with the 'Rivers of Blood' politician http://t.co/NAlWz4D7BU

    So what! Is this story supposed to kill UKIP stone dead? Another epic fail by the MSM.
    If there had been more British politicians of Enoch Powell's calibre, Britain would have been a much more pleasant place to live, than now is the case.
    How many foreign medical personnel have been involved in your treatment?
    There were many and of varied quality, but what's your point?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    The price of oil is dropping like a stone as we speak.

    Now down to $61.92. Was $70 a few days ago.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    Sleazy Shale oil sliding to oblivion.
    Apparently the Saudis are trying to price American shale producers out of the market, by making conventional oil so cheap the shale business is uneconomical.

    It is utterly ridiculous. If they *succeed* the price of oil will go back up, which means shale becomes economical again, and so the price of oil (and gas) will fall once more. Duh.

    Saudi, Venezuela, Iran, and the rest just have to accept that we are facing a future of cheaper energy. Such a shame for them.
    Is it as simple as mothballing things and just turning the taps on again when the oil price rises with Shale? I know it is with gas, but surely Shale requires a good deal more long term investment. I know someone who works for Shell who said they got badly burned with unprofitable Shale fields.
    A good many shale oil firms are highly leveraged as they raced to expand. There is going to be some serious consolidation
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Why anyone pays any attention to the loathsome Brand is beyond me. He is a typical leftie saying do as I say not as I do.

    His annual rent would cover the cost of a lot of the soup kitchens in London....
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Titters:

    It turns out the man who harangued Bland on QT last night was not just an ordinary Joe. In fact, he's the brother of a UKIP MEP ...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-30448645


    biblehub.com/genesis/4-9.htm

    Then the LORD said to Cain, “Where is Abel your brother?” He said, “I do not know; am I my brother's keeper?”
    Do you mean he was his brothers kipper?
    Applause.
    We must congratulate the BBC once again. They certainly know how to seed an audience.
    But then again this is the TV station that gives us The Apprentice.

    One wonders if Dimbleby is so senile these days that he does not know what is going on or if he is a willing party to it.
    QT is just turned into a sort of 20/20 version of Big Brother or the Jungle where yet another group of incompatable people are put together to solve impossible puzzles. In this case its a quick 60 mins whiz bang with lots of bouncers and smashing around under lights, rather than the more considered long fuse cat fight for the traditionalist where nothing happens for long periods.
  • Bugger me, never realised the Morning Star (weekend edition) is £1.20. Expensive to be a communist these days.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited December 2014

    UKIP Today news channel needed at this rate and both totally rock-solid sources for these stories... cough

    1m Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
    the Stuart Wheeler/Nigel Farage ferrets in the UKIP sack will be fun to watch. Hearing that Douglas Carswell is very uncomfortable with NF

    5m Iain Dale @IainDale
    Blogpost - EXCLUSIVE: Paul Sykes to Cease UKIP Party Funding. http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/12/exclusive-paul-sykes-to-cease-funding-ukip

    So this is why UKIP accepted Mr Reckless? Pity he's not going to cling on looking at the odds.

    Jim Pickard @PickardJE
    Curiously parties get money per seat and per 200 votes, meaning cash bonanza for Ukip after election as long as it gets at least two.

    If Carswell cannot stand Farage why did he leave the Tories? Farage cannot have come as that big a surprise can he?
    Carswell's chances of leading a party are greater with UKIP?
    Given Carswells acceptance speech where he said he likes immigrants then the party he might lead would not be 'UKIP' and all the kippers would have to go somewhere else. This would be tiresome as we would have to call them Faragistas.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    He bravely ran away...

    @TelePolitics: Ed Miliband accused of 'running away' from English home rule http://t.co/OdgYvW4BzE
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @schofieldkevin: YouGov poll puts @theSNP on 47% for Westminster election (+4 since Oct) Lab on 27% (-), Con 16% (+1), Ukip, Libs and Greens all on 3%.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Louise Mensch is the epitome of the revolving door politician, doing favours for people in office and then going to work for them out of office. What's more is that she didn't do anything noteworthy in office, and is an inane writer of fluff out of office. She's the sort of woman that has little substance, but manages to curry favour with the sort of man that's impressed by a pretty girl. Apparently that includes the current leader of the Tory party.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,823
    Re-reading one of my favourite books by Al Ries and Jack Trout, and this quote leapt out:

    'Some people want to *be* something. They want a title - like doctor, lawyer, dentist - that confers bragging rights on the holder. Others want to *do* something. They want to accomplish something with their lives.'

    Not a particularly novel theme, but this for me sums up everything we need to know about politicians. Nothing else really matters. David Cameron wanted to *be* Prime Minister - 'I think I'd be rather good at it'. He wanted to be PM, to speak to Obama on the hotline, to pithily sum up the feelings of the nation at times of crisis, to look solemn at the Cenotaph. That's it. There his ambition ends.

    Look at Thatcher before she was elected on the other hand - 'I can't bear Britain in decline'. She wanted to *do* something. Being PM was merely a means by which to reverse decline. I watched a documentary about weekends with the Queen at Balmoral -Thatcher hated them apparently; bored stiff and wanted to get back to London to rule. I can't imagine Cameron does anything but revel in every minute (just a guess -could be wrong).

    Ed Milliband is another example of someone who wants to be Prime Minister.

    Nigel Farage is a do-er. That's why for all his faults I support him.

    Having a be-er not a do-er in the top job is not a great idea at any time in my opinion, but may be excused when the fish are jumping and the cotton is high. But in times of crisis like these it is disastrous.

  • Telegraph has a story about David Miliband possible return to politics...

    I can't see any problems with that, I mean that report on the CIA didn't have anything bad in it.

    Presumably a nice safe seat has been found for his triumphal return. His brother had better watch his back.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Christine Hamilton @brit_battleaxe · 1h 1 hour ago
    watching people dig their own graves is rather fun…..

    Christine Hamilton @brit_battleaxe · 1h 1 hour ago
    He who laughs last laughs longest...

    Christine Hamilton @brit_battleaxe · 26m 26 minutes ago
    Beware the spy in the camp….

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,823
    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Isam why don't you write to Brand and invite him for a drink and a chat?

    Whatever else he is, he didn't have to abandon a career of being endlessly feted as the transatlantic funny man du jour and go all anti-establishment on us. There is clearly some conscience there.
  • The Battle of the Five Armies rocks.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited December 2014

    Why anyone pays any attention to the loathsome Brand is beyond me. He is a typical leftie saying do as I say not as I do.

    His annual rent would cover the cost of a lot of the soup kitchens in London....

    Whatever the point is, being well off is not it. Being well off does not stop anyone from either understanding or helping the less well off. Labour's bigotry is in attacking only certain well off people. However much money Brand has got he certainly does not have as much as Lord Sainsbury.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    The Battle of the Five Armies rocks.

    I was disappointed.

    Saw it in IMAX 3D at Nottm too.
  • Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Revealed: How Nigel Farage begged Enoch Powell to give a speech for him in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election. Powell said no. @Telegraph

    @TelePolitics: Nigel Farage and Enoch Powell: the full story of Ukip's links with the 'Rivers of Blood' politician http://t.co/NAlWz4D7BU

    That Enoch Powell bloke, wasn't he a Conservative?
    Not in 1994 - and hadn't been for two decades.....
  • numbercrunchernumbercruncher Posts: 136
    edited December 2014

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?
    Yes I did think the Lib Dems on 6 was on the high side for Scotland.
    Yes and 46 for the SNP was a bit low...
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543537524925542400
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Isam why don't you write to Brand and invite him for a drink and a chat?

    Whatever else he is, he didn't have to abandon a career of being endlessly feted as the transatlantic funny man du jour and go all anti-establishment on us. There is clearly some conscience there.
    Why would I do that?! I can hardly bring myself to watch him on the tv

    I know his PA and she is a nice girl. It is all I can do not to comment on the endless facebook shares I get referring to his nonsensical ideas

    He does it because he has books to sell and tv shows to promote. There is no mystery
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Flightpath
    Is Russel a member of the Labour party?
    Or did you just make something up to fit your personal prejudices?
  • [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
  • Telegraph has a story about David Miliband possible return to politics...

    I can't see any problems with that, I mean that report on the CIA didn't have anything bad in it.

    Presumably a nice safe seat has been found for his triumphal return. His brother had better watch his back.

    I've just backed David Miliband at 30 with Betfair to be the next Labour Leader. Stranger things have happened and he'll be a decent trading bet as/when he returns to the HoC.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited December 2014

    [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,823
    isam said:

    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Isam why don't you write to Brand and invite him for a drink and a chat?

    Whatever else he is, he didn't have to abandon a career of being endlessly feted as the transatlantic funny man du jour and go all anti-establishment on us. There is clearly some conscience there.
    Why would I do that?! I can hardly bring myself to watch him on the tv

    I know his PA and she is a nice girl. It is all I can do not to comment on the endless facebook shares I get referring to his nonsensical ideas

    He does it because he has books to sell and tv shows to promote. There is no mystery
    Well because you could get him to join Nigel's barmy army of course!

    As for financial motives behind his activism, I don't believe that at all. He could make far more sucking up to the establishment than trying (however idiotically) to tear it down.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited December 2014

    The Battle of the Five Armies rocks.

    I was disappointed.

    Saw it in IMAX 3D at Nottm too.
    We loved it, saw it twice, in T'Sheffield IMAX
  • Brand amused me by stating on QT that he'd had a "pretty good education".
    Strewth ..... his grammar is awful and he can hardly string a couple of coherent sentences together. If that's indicative of a good education, God help the rest is what I say.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2014

    [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?

    Edit: I can't figure out how to link to an individual Ladbrokes market, but it's under the General Election
  • Last call for Japan game

    For anyone who would like to play, entries close 9pm GMT tomorrow:

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/japan14/

    Thanks,

    DC
  • [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?
    Cheers, I reckon I've got enough SNP constituency bets that act as proxies for the SNP being the third largest party at Westminster that backing the Lib Dems would be the value.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Whether you like the imagery or not, a pound shop is what it is. However in comparing Farage to Powell but not Delboy, Brand did in fact get it the wrong way round.
    Powell was a very clever man whose stupidity led him nowhere. Compare to Harold Wilson who was a very very clever man whose astuteness led him to be PM.
  • Brand amused me by stating on QT that he'd had a "pretty good education".
    Strewth ..... his grammar is awful and he can hardly string a couple of coherent sentences together. If that's indicative of a good education, God help the rest is what I say.

    He was given fantastic educational opportunities, but he wasted them. We paid for him to go to a private school, but he got himself kicked out. Maybe if he spent less time on the drugs and more on going to class, he might have better grammar.
  • [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?

    Edit: I can't figure out how to link to an individual Ladbrokes market, but it's under the General Election
    Personally I didn't fancy the LibDems to win this 3-way match and I was surprised by the headlong rush by some highly respected PBers (incl my near namesake) to take Shadsy's odds on the Yellows.
    Discounting UKIP, my feeling is that the SNP are likely to win >25 seats and that the LibDems are likely to win <30 seats and therefore the prospects for the latter prevailing are imho fairly limited to justify an odds-on bet. I could however be proved hopelessly wrong!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    The Battle of the Five Armies rocks.

    I was disappointed.

    Saw it in IMAX 3D at Nottm too.
    We loved it, saw it twice, in T'Sheffield IMAX
    I watched the Bill Murray film too today, superb performance from Bill
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    How come EVfEL is being called "home rule"? It's not home rule. UK governments installed only on the backs of Scottish and Welsh votes would still be running our education and healthcare.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014

    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Whether you like the imagery or not, a pound shop is what it is. However in comparing Farage to Powell but not Delboy, Brand did in fact get it the wrong way round.
    Powell was a very clever man whose stupidity led him nowhere. Compare to Harold Wilson who was a very very clever man whose astuteness led him to be PM.
    Brand doesn't know what he is talking about re Powell as shown with the video I linked to earlier accusing him of homophobia.. like so many people they just believe what the papers tell them

    As for pound shops, I think they are unreal... things that cost £2.50 elsewhere cost £1, brilliant! Whats not to like?

    First time I went in one the lady on the till asked me if I wanted a bag, and I managed the hilarious wisecrack "They're not £1 as well are they?"

    Oh how we laughed
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited December 2014
    @FrancisUrquhart
    If he had stuck in at school, and avoided drugs, he might not have become a millionaire, you mean?

    ;-)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: Revealed: How Nigel Farage begged Enoch Powell to give a speech for him in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election. Powell said no. @Telegraph

    @TelePolitics: Nigel Farage and Enoch Powell: the full story of Ukip's links with the 'Rivers of Blood' politician http://t.co/NAlWz4D7BU

    That Enoch Powell bloke, wasn't he a Conservative?
    Not in 1994 - and hadn't been for two decades.....
    The thing is, other than political geeks, nobody under 40 really knows who Enoch Powell was.
  • [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?

    Edit: I can't figure out how to link to an individual Ladbrokes market, but it's under the General Election
    Personally I didn't fancy the LibDems to win this 3-way match and I was surprised by the headlong rush by some highly respected PBers (incl my near namesake) to take Shadsy's odds on the Yellows.
    Discounting UKIP, my feeling is that the SNP are likely to win >25 seats and that the LibDems are likely to win <30 seats and therefore the prospects for the latter prevailing are imho fairly limited to justify an odds-on bet. I could however be proved hopelessly wrong!</p>
    I was guided by the spreads on the Sporting Index seat markets as a fair representation of current opinion. It's fairly easy to see how the Lib Dems might get 35 seats, but that would be an incredible performance by the SNP. And it's easy to see how the SNP could yet crash and burn, so that even if the Lib Dems did badly, they might still win this bet.

    I was expecting a price of 1/2 on the Lib Dems for this market.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hey, Ed, how is your buddy Hollande doing...

    @ZoraSuleman: #France has had its credit rating #downgraded. Ratings agency Fitch has cut it by one notch to "AA"
  • Yougov

    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 48%
    No 45%

    Alasdair [Alexander] ‏@Alasdair91 14 mins14 minutes ago
    The new @yougov poll also shows only 23% of people are satisfied with the #SmithCommission - 51% are unsatisfied
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    It's the season to be less than jolly? The stock markets headed south for the winter as well.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited December 2014
    isam said:

    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Whether you like the imagery or not, a pound shop is what it is. However in comparing Farage to Powell but not Delboy, Brand did in fact get it the wrong way round.
    Powell was a very clever man whose stupidity led him nowhere. Compare to Harold Wilson who was a very very clever man whose astuteness led him to be PM.
    Brand doesn't know what he is talking about re Powell as shown with the video I linked to earlier accusing him of homophobia.. like so many people they just believe what the papers tell them

    As for pound shops, I think they are unreal... things that cost £2.50 elsewhere cost £1, brilliant! Whats not to like?

    First time I went in one the lady on the till asked me if I wanted a bag, and I managed the hilarious wisecrack "They're not £1 as well are they?"

    Oh how we laughed
    In places like Poundland a loaf of Warburton’s sliced white bread for £1; it appears to be fantastic value, until you realise it is a 600g loaf, rather than the 800g size that has been the industry standard since the Victorian era. In Tesco you can pick up two 800g Warburton loaves for £2.
    All manner of things are non standard sizes. Poundland will sell milk as part of a two-for-£1 offer – in odd sized 750ml bottles. I suppose if we called all this clever 'PR' you would start shopping somewhere else.

    Not for the first time I realise why you think Nigel Farage is a genius politician and Neil Hamilton is a tall ludicrously bronzed TV actor
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Yougov

    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 48%
    No 45%

    Alasdair [Alexander] ‏@Alasdair91 14 mins14 minutes ago
    The new @yougov poll also shows only 23% of people are satisfied with the #SmithCommission - 51% are unsatisfied

    Weren't people saying that the SNP expressing dissatisfaction with the Smith Comission was political suicide?
  • antifrank said:

    [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?

    Edit: I can't figure out how to link to an individual Ladbrokes market, but it's under the General Election
    Personally I didn't fancy the LibDems to win this 3-way match and I was surprised by the headlong rush by some highly respected PBers (incl my near namesake) to take Shadsy's odds on the Yellows.
    Discounting UKIP, my feeling is that the SNP are likely to win >25 seats and that the LibDems are likely to win <30 seats and therefore the prospects for the latter prevailing are imho fairly limited to justify an odds-on bet. I could however be proved hopelessly wrong!</p>
    I was guided by the spreads on the Sporting Index seat markets as a fair representation of current opinion. It's fairly easy to see how the Lib Dems might get 35 seats, but that would be an incredible performance by the SNP. And it's easy to see how the SNP could yet crash and burn, so that even if the Lib Dems did badly, they might still win this bet.

    I was expecting a price of 1/2 on the Lib Dems for this market.
    We're clearly poles apart in our thinking on this ...... that's what makes markets!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited December 2014
    Online poll vs an Indy Referendum with very high turn out three months ago. Get over it, you lost.

    Yougov

    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 48%
    No 45%

  • Alistair said:

    Yougov

    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 48%
    No 45%

    Alasdair [Alexander] ‏@Alasdair91 14 mins14 minutes ago
    The new @yougov poll also shows only 23% of people are satisfied with the #SmithCommission - 51% are unsatisfied

    Weren't people saying that the SNP expressing dissatisfaction with the Smith Comission was political suicide?
    They were.
    Some of the stupider ones may even have believed it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014

    isam said:

    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Whether you like the imagery or not, a pound shop is what it is. However in comparing Farage to Powell but not Delboy, Brand did in fact get it the wrong way round.
    Powell was a very clever man whose stupidity led him nowhere. Compare to Harold Wilson who was a very very clever man whose astuteness led him to be PM.
    Brand doesn't know what he is talking about re Powell as shown with the video I linked to earlier accusing him of homophobia.. like so many people they just believe what the papers tell them

    As for pound shops, I think they are unreal... things that cost £2.50 elsewhere cost £1, brilliant! Whats not to like?

    First time I went in one the lady on the till asked me if I wanted a bag, and I managed the hilarious wisecrack "They're not £1 as well are they?"

    Oh how we laughed
    In places like Poundland a loaf of Warburton’s sliced white bread for £1; it appears to be fantastic value, until you realise it is a 600g loaf, rather than the 800g size that has been the industry standard since the Victorian era. In Tesco you can pick up two 800g Warburton loaves for £2.
    All manner of things are non standard sizes. Poundland will milk as part of a two-for-£1 offer – in odd sized 750ml bottles. I suppose if we called all this clever 'PR' you would start shopping somewhere else.

    Not for the first time I realise why you think Nigel Farage is a genius politician and Neil Hamilton is a tall ludicrously bronzed TV actor
    I have never said that Nigel Farage was a genius politician. You are making that up

    As for pound stores I have only ever been in one 2-3 times I think. I thought the catch must be that the products are smaller in size, but I have bought arm & hammer toothpaste & eucryl tooth powder from the ones in Lakeside & Romford and they are the same size as the stuff I buy in my normal supermarket for £2,49.. and they cost £1

    I don't eat Bread at home, it makes you fat no matter how cheap you can bulk buy it

    You don't have to try and lecture me and prove a point in every post by the way.
  • Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: YouGov poll puts @theSNP on 47% for Westminster election (+4 since Oct) Lab on 27% (-), Con 16% (+1), Ukip, Libs and Greens all on 3%.

    Look how far out the rubbish Scottish subsample is - from 7/8 Dec:

    Con: 15
    Lab: 25
    Lib: 7
    SNP: 47
    UKIP: 3
    Green: 2

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Alistair said:

    Yougov

    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 48%
    No 45%

    Alasdair [Alexander] ‏@Alasdair91 14 mins14 minutes ago
    The new @yougov poll also shows only 23% of people are satisfied with the #SmithCommission - 51% are unsatisfied

    Weren't people saying that the SNP expressing dissatisfaction with the Smith Comission was political suicide?
    God the Scots are perennial whingers. They constantly complain they need more independence for powers, but hate the idea of changing the Barnett formula so they're self-sufficient. And of course, when actually given the chance to go independent they vote no. They cling to the south east of England for an economic security blanket. It's about time we stopped bending over backwards for their special needs.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited December 2014
    my sides are still sore....

    good night.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Where's Nick? I was hoping he could give some background on the Broxtowe result.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Good evening to all! And good night.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014

    Is that based on a reliable sample? If so the SNP would win 31 of Labour's 41 Scottish seats.

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?
    Yes I did think the Lib Dems on 6 was on the high side for Scotland.
    Yes and 46 for the SNP was a bit low...
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543537524925542400
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/snp-surge-in-latest-council-polls.1418383957

    The Herald's highlighting Kintyre as a 35% swing from Tories to SNP - rather different from the post?

    Looks like swing is calculated between first and second parties after the election. Both values are correct.
    Ah, thanks. Those multimember wards seem dodgy anyway when it comes to by election comparisons as has been said already in this thread. It seems to me that if e.g. the SNP got seats 1 and 2 and the Dog Lovers Party won seat no 3, and the canine enthusiast died, then there would be a by election , it would tend to change from DLP to SNP at the by election even if there was no other change in voting pattern. Or have I got it wrong?

    You are right, and that is one of the (few) inherent weaknesses in STV. The other "fair" method of filling casual vacancies would be to re-count the original votes (with the withdrawal of the vacant candidate) but that depends on there being enough candidates of the party.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    antifrank said:

    [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?

    Edit: I can't figure out how to link to an individual Ladbrokes market, but it's under the General Election
    Personally I didn't fancy the LibDems to win this 3-way match and I was surprised by the headlong rush by some highly respected PBers (incl my near namesake) to take Shadsy's odds on the Yellows.
    Discounting UKIP, my feeling is that the SNP are likely to win >25 seats and that the LibDems are likely to win <30 seats and therefore the prospects for the latter prevailing are imho fairly limited to justify an odds-on bet. I could however be proved hopelessly wrong!</p>
    I was guided by the spreads on the Sporting Index seat markets as a fair representation of current opinion. It's fairly easy to see how the Lib Dems might get 35 seats, but that would be an incredible performance by the SNP. And it's easy to see how the SNP could yet crash and burn, so that even if the Lib Dems did badly, they might still win this bet.

    I was expecting a price of 1/2 on the Lib Dems for this market.
    We're clearly poles apart in our thinking on this ...... that's what makes markets!
    Even with the monster swing that SNP is getting they face monster majorities and having to come from third and fourth place e to win seats.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    edited December 2014
    Hi Andy - we discussed it on the previous thread. The result shows a similar picture to the by-election in the ward in2012, when Labour was doing around 10 points better in the national polls. On the other hand, it shows a 4% swing to the Tories since 2011, when we last had all-out elections and Labour was doing only 5 points better than now. I think it's a respectable result for the Tories in their safest ward, but none of the parties are particularly excited by a December by-election. Knocking up for hours in total darkness and freezing rain is an acquired taste, and not very productive...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: YouGov poll puts @theSNP on 47% for Westminster election (+4 since Oct) Lab on 27% (-), Con 16% (+1), Ukip, Libs and Greens all on 3%.

    Look how far out the rubbish Scottish subsample is - from 7/8 Dec:

    Con: 15
    Lab: 25
    Lib: 7
    SNP: 47
    UKIP: 3
    Green: 2

    Greens out by 50 percent
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    · 7m 7 minutes ago
    Brand ignores the fact lots of people shop in pound shops and that Enoch Powell was very popular. Via @Dannythefink http://thetim.es/1z2pw9X

    Whether you like the imagery or not, a pound shop is what it is. However in comparing Farage to Powell but not Delboy, Brand did in fact get it the wrong way round.
    Powell was a very clever man whose stupidity led him nowhere. Compare to Harold Wilson who was a very very clever man whose astuteness led him to be PM.
    Brand doesn't know what he is talking about re Powell as shown with the video I linked to earlier accusing him of homophobia.. like so many people they just believe what the papers tell them

    As for pound shops, I think they are unreal... things that cost £2.50 elsewhere cost £1, brilliant! Whats not to like?

    First time I went in one the lady on the till asked me if I wanted a bag, and I managed the hilarious wisecrack "They're not £1 as well are they?"

    Oh how we laughed
    In places like Poundland a loaf of Warburton’s sliced white bread for £1; it appears to be fantastic value, until you realise it is a 600g loaf, rather than the 800g size that has been the industry standard since the Victorian era. In Tesco you can pick up two 800g Warburton loaves for £2.
    All manner of things are non standard sizes. Poundland will milk as part of a two-for-£1 offer – in odd sized 750ml bottles. I suppose if we called all this clever 'PR' you would start shopping somewhere else.

    Not for the first time I realise why you think Nigel Farage is a genius politician and Neil Hamilton is a tall ludicrously bronzed TV actor
    I have never said that Nigel Farage was a genius politician. You are making that up

    As for pound stores I have only ever been in one 2-3 times I think. I thought the catch must be that the products are smaller in size, but I have bought arm & hammer toothpaste & eucryl tooth powder from the ones in Lakeside & Romford and they are the same size as the stuff I buy in my normal supermarket for £2,49.. and they cost £1

    I don't eat Bread at home, it makes you fat no matter how cheap you can bulk buy it

    You don't have to try and lecture me and prove a point in every post by the way.
    You are right I don't. Put it down to bad luck. And I too suspect that eating too much bread can have an adverse effect. Serious health note - not eating bread has done wonders for my wife. Its the acid.
    But you brought up the value of Poundland and yes I'm sure on a good day there are genuine bargains to be had.
  • Alistair said:

    Yougov

    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 48%
    No 45%

    Alasdair [Alexander] ‏@Alasdair91 14 mins14 minutes ago
    The new @yougov poll also shows only 23% of people are satisfied with the #SmithCommission - 51% are unsatisfied

    Weren't people saying that the SNP expressing dissatisfaction with the Smith Comission was political suicide?
    They were.
    Some of the stupider ones may even have believed it.
    No loser like a bad loser eh?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Hi Andy - we discussed it on the previous thread. The result shows a similar picture to the by-election in the ward in2012, when Labour was doing around 10 points better in the national polls. On the other hand, it shows a 4% swing to the Tories since 2011, when we last had all-out elections and Labour was doing only 5 points better than now. I think it's a respectable result for the Tories in their safest ward, but none of the parties are particularly excited by a December by-election. Knocking up for hours in total darkness and freezing rain is an acquired taste, and not very productive...

    Thanks Nick. I should have checked the previous thread.
  • Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    [YouGov Scottish Poll]

    Maybe that 4/5 on the LibDems to get more seats than the SNP wasn't such a bargain after all.
    Is there a market up? If so, can you provide a link please.
    Yes, Shadsy put up a new market today: Three-way Seat Match

    LibDems 4/5
    SNP 6/4
    UKIP 6/1

    The consensus amongst the PB cognoscenti was that the LibDems were value. I'm not so sure, but what do I know?

    Edit: I can't figure out how to link to an individual Ladbrokes market, but it's under the General Election
    Personally I didn't fancy the LibDems to win this 3-way match and I was surprised by the headlong rush by some highly respected PBers (incl my near namesake) to take Shadsy's odds on the Yellows.
    Discounting UKIP, my feeling is that the SNP are likely to win >25 seats and that the LibDems are likely to win <30 seats and therefore the prospects for the latter prevailing are imho fairly limited to justify an odds-on bet. I could however be proved hopelessly wrong!</p>
    I was guided by the spreads on the Sporting Index seat markets as a fair representation of current opinion. It's fairly easy to see how the Lib Dems might get 35 seats, but that would be an incredible performance by the SNP. And it's easy to see how the SNP could yet crash and burn, so that even if the Lib Dems did badly, they might still win this bet.

    I was expecting a price of 1/2 on the Lib Dems for this market.
    We're clearly poles apart in our thinking on this ...... that's what makes markets!
    Even with the monster swing that SNP is getting they face monster majorities and having to come from third and fourth place e to win seats.
    Feeding the YouGov poll numbers below into Electoral Calculus shows the SNP winning 48 seats out of 59!
    Clearly this isn't going to happen but it's sufficiently persuasive to convince me to swerve around that odds-on offer from Shadsy to back the LibDems to win more seats. They still could but as sure as hell it ain't an odds-on bet in my opinion.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Not q
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Not quite sure why the SNP win in Elgin is described as an SNP hold if it is, as stated, a Labour defence.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    Diane James has finally been selected — as UKIP candidate for NW Hampshire:

    http://www.andovertown.co.uk/news/diane-james-announced-as-ukip-parliamentary-candidate/

    Interestingly this is the seat where former chief whip Sir George Young is standing down. (Before that it was represented by Andrew Mitchell's father, Sir David Mitchell.)
  • Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: YouGov poll puts @theSNP on 47% for Westminster election (+4 since Oct) Lab on 27% (-), Con 16% (+1), Ukip, Libs and Greens all on 3%.

    Look how far out the rubbish Scottish subsample is - from 7/8 Dec:

    Con: 15
    Lab: 25
    Lib: 7
    SNP: 47
    UKIP: 3
    Green: 2

    Greens out by 50 percent
    And comfortably within MOE......unlike the LibDems....

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?
    Yes I did think the Lib Dems on 6 was on the high side for Scotland.
    Yes and 46 for the SNP was a bit low...
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543537524925542400
    Holy crap

    #allover4Ed
  • Moses_ said:

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?
    Yes I did think the Lib Dems on 6 was on the high side for Scotland.
    Yes and 46 for the SNP was a bit low...
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543537524925542400
    Holy crap

    #allover4Ed
    #DUEMA
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed would need to make around 100 gains from the Tories and LDs in order to make up for losing 30 seats to the SNP if this poll were reflected on election day.
    Moses_ said:

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?
    Yes I did think the Lib Dems on 6 was on the high side for Scotland.
    Yes and 46 for the SNP was a bit low...
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543537524925542400
    Holy crap

    #allover4Ed
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    Socrates said:

    How come EVfEL is being called "home rule"? It's not home rule. UK governments installed only on the backs of Scottish and Welsh votes would still be running our education and healthcare.

    Potentially yes - that's why it's a bad idea, since on the rare occasions when it made a difference, it would have the effect that the Government in power was in deadlock on most issues with the Commons, and no doubt both sides would spend endless hours arguing over "what is an English bill". It's easier to make this point without being suspected of ulterior motives when, as now, Labour is apparently weaker in Scotland than anywhere else.

    Really either we need full devolution with an English executive or we should accept that we're one country with bits of devolution here and there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited December 2014
    Man faces deportation as UK wife's salary too low

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30439592

    Then in the small print it says,

    "They moved to the UK in January 2013 with Mr Engel on a holiday visa, living first in Yorkshire and then in Cornwall."

    So in other words...he came here under false pretenses. He came on a holiday visa with no intention of just coming on vacation.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2014
    The Grauniad call SLAB for Murphy:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/12/jim-murphy-set-to-become-scottish-labour-leader

    “Jim is very unusual amongst the Westminster hierarchy in understanding the size of the problem that Scottish Labour faces. What he doesn’t understand is that he’s part of the problem.”
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    How come EVfEL is being called "home rule"? It's not home rule. UK governments installed only on the backs of Scottish and Welsh votes would still be running our education and healthcare.

    Potentially yes - that's why it's a bad idea, since on the rare occasions when it made a difference, it would have the effect that the Government in power was in deadlock on most issues with the Commons, and no doubt both sides would spend endless hours arguing over "what is an English bill". It's easier to make this point without being suspected of ulterior motives when, as now, Labour is apparently weaker in Scotland than anywhere else.

    Really either we need full devolution with an English executive or we should accept that we're one country with bits of devolution here and there.
    The second option is an obviously unfair choice on the English. If we're fully "one country" then we shouldn't have devolution. If we're "several countries within a country" then we need symmetrical devolution. The only reason for devolution to some and not to others is if you think Scotland and Wales are countries and England isn't.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    AndyJS said:

    Diane James has finally been selected — as UKIP candidate for NW Hampshire:

    http://www.andovertown.co.uk/news/diane-james-announced-as-ukip-parliamentary-candidate/

    Interestingly this is the seat where former chief whip Sir George Young is standing down. (Before that it was represented by Andrew Mitchell's father, Sir David Mitchell.)

    Even with no incumbent, it's quite strange that she wasn't given a more winnable seat to fight. I maybe get the impression that her and Patrick O'Flynn are happy in the European parliament and don't want to be MPs based on their seat choices.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't believe it — BBC radio news has just said that some of the software used in air traffic control dates back to the 1960s. I was saying the same thing earlier about the banking system.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Artist said:

    AndyJS said:

    Diane James has finally been selected — as UKIP candidate for NW Hampshire:

    http://www.andovertown.co.uk/news/diane-james-announced-as-ukip-parliamentary-candidate/

    Interestingly this is the seat where former chief whip Sir George Young is standing down. (Before that it was represented by Andrew Mitchell's father, Sir David Mitchell.)

    Even with no incumbent, it's quite strange that she wasn't given a more winnable seat to fight. I maybe get the impression that her and Patrick O'Flynn are happy in the European parliament and don't want to be MPs based on their seat choices.
    It's an interesting seat for UKIP because there's quite a big working-class vote in Andover but it's never voted Labour in the entire history of the constituency. Maybe they might consider voting UKIP.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I think that it's very interesting to note that Diane James hadn't already been selected to fight a more winnable seat. Another rising Ukip star who seems to have now disappeared off the radar.
    Artist said:

    AndyJS said:

    Diane James has finally been selected — as UKIP candidate for NW Hampshire:

    http://www.andovertown.co.uk/news/diane-james-announced-as-ukip-parliamentary-candidate/

    Interestingly this is the seat where former chief whip Sir George Young is standing down. (Before that it was represented by Andrew Mitchell's father, Sir David Mitchell.)

    Even with no incumbent, it's quite strange that she wasn't given a more winnable seat to fight. I maybe get the impression that her and Patrick O'Flynn are happy in the European parliament and don't want to be MPs based on their seat choices.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:
    AndyJS said:

    I don't believe it — BBC radio news has just said that some of the software used in air traffic control dates back to the 1960s. I was saying the same thing earlier about the banking system.

    Tried and tested software running on modern hardware. Nothing wrong with that.

    Might be something to do with the Linesman/Mediator system.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Artist said:

    AndyJS said:

    Diane James has finally been selected — as UKIP candidate for NW Hampshire:

    http://www.andovertown.co.uk/news/diane-james-announced-as-ukip-parliamentary-candidate/

    Interestingly this is the seat where former chief whip Sir George Young is standing down. (Before that it was represented by Andrew Mitchell's father, Sir David Mitchell.)

    Even with no incumbent, it's quite strange that she wasn't given a more winnable seat to fight. I maybe get the impression that her and Patrick O'Flynn are happy in the European parliament and don't want to be MPs based on their seat choices.
    Her bio gives her a connection to Kent, I was half expecting to see her become the candidate for Gillingham.

    http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/elections/eastleigh_2013/news/10248557.Diane_James___UKIP/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    The Scotsman - State guardian scheme provokes further fury
    "A FURIOUS row erupted last night over new Scottish Government guidelines that suggest teachers should report under-age sexual activity to a child’s “named ­person” ahead of parents.

    Campaigners against SNP ministers’ controversial state-guardian scheme, to be rolled out in 2016, said they were outraged by the new guidelines on sexual health in schools, published yesterday, which follow the legalisation of same-sex marriage.

    The scheme, which ­assigns a “named person” such as a teacher or health visitor to look out for the welfare of every child under 18, has been criticised as “unjustified interference” in private and family life. The role given to “named persons” in the new teaching guidelines – Conduct of Relationships, Sexual Health and Parenthood Education in Schools – further ­angered campaigners."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Artist said:

    AndyJS said:

    Diane James has finally been selected — as UKIP candidate for NW Hampshire:

    http://www.andovertown.co.uk/news/diane-james-announced-as-ukip-parliamentary-candidate/

    Interestingly this is the seat where former chief whip Sir George Young is standing down. (Before that it was represented by Andrew Mitchell's father, Sir David Mitchell.)

    Even with no incumbent, it's quite strange that she wasn't given a more winnable seat to fight. I maybe get the impression that her and Patrick O'Flynn are happy in the European parliament and don't want to be MPs based on their seat choices.
    Her bio gives her a connection to Kent, I was half expecting to see her become the candidate for Gillingham.

    http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/elections/eastleigh_2013/news/10248557.Diane_James___UKIP/
    She's a councillor in the SW Surrey constituency I think. Or maybe Guildford. I know it's Waverley council but a bit of it is in the latter seat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Harriet Harman is to face a National Health Action Party candidate in her constituency:

    http://nhap.org/national-health-action-party-candidate-to-stand-in-camberwell-peckham-against-labour-deputy-leader/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    edited December 2014
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    How come EVfEL is being called "home rule"? It's not home rule. UK governments installed only on the backs of Scottish and Welsh votes would still be running our education and healthcare.

    Potentially yes - that's why it's a bad idea, since on the rare occasions when it made a difference, it would have the effect that the Government in power was in deadlock on most issues with the Commons, and no doubt both sides would spend endless hours arguing over "what is an English bill". It's easier to make this point without being suspected of ulterior motives when, as now, Labour is apparently weaker in Scotland than anywhere else.

    Really either we need full devolution with an English executive or we should accept that we're one country with bits of devolution here and there.
    The second option is an obviously unfair choice on the English. If we're fully "one country" then we shouldn't have devolution. If we're "several countries within a country" then we need symmetrical devolution. The only reason for devolution to some and not to others is if you think Scotland and Wales are countries and England isn't.
    The second option isn't particularly logical but it's a classic British fudge. If bits of the country want their own parliaments and executives (e.g. because they're afraid that otherwise the English will dominate) they can have them without diluting their involvement with the rest. If they don't really care enough to want another layer of politicians, then they have the default British Parliament. Because 90% of the British population is English and the English majority is usually the same as the British majority, most English people aren't that bothered - not enough to have another bunch of politicians and ministers.

    Writ large, it's a bit like the irregularity that some areas have town and parish councils and some don't. There's no logic to it (in my patch half do and half don't, with no particular pattern), but basically if an area really wants one it can have it. Obviously the Scottish Parliament is much more powerful, but it's a similar operating principle - you can run more of your own affairs if you really want the extra layer.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    I think it's fair to say that most Labour supporters are instinctively against the idea of an English parliament, and — if they're honest with themselves — it's partly because they know they'd have a difficult time winning control of it for more than about 25% of the time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2014

    you can run more of your own affairs if you really want the extra layer.

    And why do your Westminster representatives get a say in running someone else's affairs when the matter has already been devolved to your local representatives?

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    JohnLoony said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/snp-surge-in-latest-council-polls.1418383957

    The Herald's highlighting Kintyre as a 35% swing from Tories to SNP - rather different from the post?

    Looks like swing is calculated between first and second parties after the election. Both values are correct.
    Ah, thanks. Those multimember wards seem dodgy anyway when it comes to by election comparisons as has been said already in this thread. It seems to me that if e.g. the SNP got seats 1 and 2 and the Dog Lovers Party won seat no 3, and the canine enthusiast died, then there would be a by election , it would tend to change from DLP to SNP at the by election even if there was no other change in voting pattern. Or have I got it wrong?

    You are right, and that is one of the (few) inherent weaknesses in STV. The other "fair" method of filling casual vacancies would be to re-count the original votes (with the withdrawal of the vacant candidate) but that depends on there being enough candidates of the party.

    A by-election under STV is effectively an AV election as there is only one seat to fill and the quota is 50% +1.

    In Northern Ireland there are no by-elections under STV, the parties co-opt members into vacancies.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?

    Surprised we haven't seen any Scottish polls ahead of the Labour leadership announcement, hopefully we'll see some next week. Anyway, in the absence of any real polls, some synthetic ones from me and the electionforecast team...

    Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.

    The aggregated measure gives figures of:

    SNP 44 (+1)
    LAB 26 (=)
    CON 16 (-2)
    LIB 6 (+1)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-2)

    The electionforecast weighted measure has:

    SNP 46 (+4)
    LAB 30 (-2)
    CON 11 (-1)
    LIB 6 (-1)
    GRN 4 (=)
    UKIP 2 (=):

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432

    Can we all make up false/fake figures out of thin air ?
    Yes I did think the Lib Dems on 6 was on the high side for Scotland.
    Yes and 46 for the SNP was a bit low...
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543537524925542400
    Holy crap

    #allover4Ed
    #DUEMA
    Oh ! My mistake.....

    DUEMA

    But ABL
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    TUD Yougov a few days ago had the SNP on 38% and a Survation poll a fortnight ago had No winning a rerun referendum 53-47. This yougov poll has the SNP on 47% and there referendum poll has Yes on 48%, so basically all the Yes voters are voting SNP, including Labour Yes voters. Of course the SNP contributed to the Smith Commission report's findings too
  • dodrade said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/snp-surge-in-latest-council-polls.1418383957

    The Herald's highlighting Kintyre as a 35% swing from Tories to SNP - rather different from the post?

    Looks like swing is calculated between first and second parties after the election. Both values are correct.
    Ah, thanks. Those multimember wards seem dodgy anyway when it comes to by election comparisons as has been said already in this thread. It seems to me that if e.g. the SNP got seats 1 and 2 and the Dog Lovers Party won seat no 3, and the canine enthusiast died, then there would be a by election , it would tend to change from DLP to SNP at the by election even if there was no other change in voting pattern. Or have I got it wrong?

    You are right, and that is one of the (few) inherent weaknesses in STV. The other "fair" method of filling casual vacancies would be to re-count the original votes (with the withdrawal of the vacant candidate) but that depends on there being enough candidates of the party.

    A by-election under STV is effectively an AV election as there is only one seat to fill and the quota is 50% +1.

    In Northern Ireland there are no by-elections under STV, the parties co-opt members into vacancies.
    In 2000, for example, there was a by-election to Antrim District Council. There have been others IIRC.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A consultant who has worked for Nats said it knew its software needed to be replaced a decade ago but will be relying on the 1960s programmes for another two years.

    Martyn Thomas, Visiting Professor of Software Engineering at the University of Oxford, said: “The National Airspace System that performs flight data processing was originally written for American airspace in the late 1960s.

    “It wasn’t designed to cope with the volume of air traffic we have today, or to interface with modern computer software.”

    Prof Thomas said the NAS system was written using a now defunct computer language called Jovial, meaning Nats has to train programmers in Jovial just to maintain the antiquated software."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/aviation/11291495/UK-flights-chaos-Air-traffic-control-computers-using-software-from-the-1960s.html
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Any chance of the Elgin commentary being changed to show what actually happened??? i.e. SNP GAIN FROM LABOUR!
This discussion has been closed.