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So what will be the next government. The betting markets are confused – see this from Betfair Exchange pic.twitter.com/CusNgGw31M
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Why not just go 5.8?
The market is surprisingly illiquid, for the moment at least.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/isis-issues-guidelines-for-sex-slavery/
How they have any support at all is utterly shocking to me. How hundreds of people raised in this country can support such a group to the extent they abandon their families to get and fight for them is jaw-dropping. The people behind the immigration and integration policies for the last 60 years have a lot to answer for.
Money's too tight to mention!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrUB0g8Vjgg
#UKIP protesters outside #Coventry town hall this morning. Seems to be about proposed W Mids "#supercouncil"
http://t.co/vN8aOKTQrT
In all seriousness, have you considered the possibility that they might read the bilge spouted by people who don't want 'their type' here, and feel more welcomed elsewhere?
The Huff Post gets into this VAT MESS:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/alison-goodwin/small-business-closure_b_6309608.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
This may turn out to be a real nightmare for the gov in the new year.
Will Cable take the blame? Will he be next out?
Who knows what would happen - perhaps the minor parties would get crushed - or soar as turnout the second time round plummets.
Presumably UKIP supporters are uniquely to blame, right?
Its nothing to do with that. Every nasty murderous regime attracts a certain type of human vermin that wants to hang behind the troops and get stuck into the acts of depravity when they've gone by.
The soviets had their NKVD, the Nazis their einsatzgruppen and Gestapo. Ditto the Khmer Rouge. ISIS has their slavers.
Perhaps we should be grateful to them for sucking up some of our cr*p.
Even the Guardian would blush at the stunning Dhimmitude of that comment. Are you having us on?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-next-government-picking-through.html
More generally, Labour should be strong favourites to be leading the next government, making Ed Miliband sensational value as a bet for next Prime Minister at 11/10 with Ladbrokes and Corals. Quite how shadsy squares that price with his price of evens that Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister at the 2015 Queen's Speech is not clear to me (the more unclear because David Cameron is 5/6 in that market).
I'm looking forward to reading your suggestions.
Because Cable is the Business Secretary who is supposed to be handling this, e.g.
http://www.businesszone.co.uk/topic/finances/vat-moss-vince-cable-must-resign/58771
You may want to read the articles. This is an EU decision, and Cable's dept was handling the implementation.
In fact Labour were only ahead in the polls by around 3% in 2011 when the Council was elected. I suspect Nick is getting confused with 2012. So, the Tory victory was thus rather more significant and impressive and Anna Soubry will be well pleased.
Great to see them breaking with the old politics too by actually engaging with newspaper proprietors. The people's representatives.
So far as I see it the papers will split thusly:
Express; UKIP
Sun, Mail, Telegraph Conservative
Mirror: Labour.
Grauniad: Soft Labour Endorsment.
Times: (Very) soft Conservative endorsment.
I just stated facts. They were not partisan comments.
So far past 2 weeks have been taken up a) finding out where a couple of my start-ups stand on this and b) how to make sure I am ready to comply on 1st Jan.
Apparently @StagecoachMids will take you to The Place With No Name! pic.twitter.com/533GYUlVxB
That said, I was posting sleepily and mixed the two up myself - apologies!
Edit: I appear to be Pulpstar's [slower] twin.
All this is, of course, fantasy politics. The average Labour or Conservative supporter would rather drink hemlock than share power with the hated enemy.
UKIP wouldn't feature in any Grand Coalition would we?
Joking aside, I see no reason why in the near future, when petty , pretend differnces are put to one side, there wont be a realignment of the parties
Left leaning Libdem, Progressive Labour, Greens, and SNP
Blairite Labour/Cameroons/Orange Bookers
Old Labour/Right Leaning Tories/UKIP
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/12/france-proposes-assisted-dying-bill-grant-doctors-new-powers
Have I missed another relaunch? They're getting more and more regular.
Should provide a bit of a fillip for the Tories when the final revised Q3 GDP is released on 23rd Dec.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/12/modern-britain-good-tories-food-banks-poverty
"There is no such thing as a good Tory. Nye Bevan summed them up perfectly."
"Yes that nice Herr Himmler took over leadership of the Nazi party after they had conquered Europe and exterminated the Jews Gypsies and Homosexuals and launched a reform group to reconnect with humanity. After Herr Goebbels put some focus groups together they decided to offer free bus passes to pensioners and talk up the merits of installing wind farms in the General Government territory as an alternative to coal gas."
"OK I will say it: the only good Tory is a dead Tory"
"A 'good Tory'?....but none of them want to be good...it's like trying to convert Lucifer."
telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/11289635/Porn-protest-bring-your-coat-and-wrap-up-warm.html
Who will win the most seats:
4/5 LD
6/4 SNP
6/1 UKIP
Less than three months after the referendum, the SNP has hit new record highs on both the weighted and aggregated measures, which now sit either side of the symbolic 45% level, the share of the Yes vote in the referendum and the SNP's constituency vote in 2011.
The aggregated measure gives figures of:
SNP 44 (+1)
LAB 26 (=)
CON 16 (-2)
LIB 6 (+1)
UKIP 5 (+1)
GRN 3 (-2)
The electionforecast weighted measure has:
SNP 46 (+4)
LAB 30 (-2)
CON 11 (-1)
LIB 6 (-1)
GRN 4 (=)
UKIP 2 (=):
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/543421931530514432
DPM Aldo Clegg: My name is Deputy Prime Minister Aldo Clegg and I'm putting together a special team, and I need me eight soldiers. Eight Liberal Democrat soldiers. Now, y'all might've heard rumours about the General Election happening soon. Well, we'll be leaving a little earlier. We're gonna be dropped into middle England, dressed as civilians. And once we're in enemy territory, as a bushwhackin' guerrilla army, we're gonna be doin' one thing and one thing only... killin' Tories. Now, I don't know about y'all, but I sure as hell didn't come down from the goddamn Sheffield Mountains, cross 300 miles of England, fight my way through half of Scotland and jump out of a feckin' election battle-bus to teach the Tories lessons in humanity. Tories ain't got no humanity. They're the foot soldiers of a lefty-hatin', NHS-murderin' Bullingdon Boy and they need to be dee-stroyed. That's why any and every son of a bitch we find wearin' a Tory rosette, they're gonna die. Now, I'm the direct descendant of the Dutch merchant Abram van Rijckevorsel. That means I got a little privateer in me. And our battle plan will be that of a whole squadron of privateers. We will be cruel to the Conservatives, and through our cruelty they will know who we are. And they will find the evidence of our cruelty in the disembowelled, dismembered, and disfigured bodies of their brothers we leave behind us. And the Tory won't not be able to help themselves but to imagine the cruelty their brothers endured at our hands, and our boot heels, and the edge of our knives. And the Tory will be sickened by us, and the Tory will talk about us, and the Tory will fear us. And when the Tory closes their eyes at night and they're tortured by their subconscious for the evil they have done, it will be with thoughts of us they are tortured with. Sound good?
Sgt. Donny “Danny” Alexander (the Bear Lib-Dem), Pfc. Tim Farron, Pfc. Vince Cable, Pfc. Simon Hughes, Pfc. Norman Lamb, Pfc. Mike Smithson, Cpl. Paddy Ashdown, Pfc. Jo Swinson: YES, SIR!
DPM Aldo Clegg: That's what I like to hear. But I got a word of warning for all you would-be warriors. When you join my command, you take on debit. A debit you owe me personally. Each and every man (and woman!) under my command owes me one hundred Tory scalps. And I want my scalps. And all y'all will git me one hundred Tory scalps, taken from the heads of one hundred defeated Tories. Or you will die tryin'!
He forgot to request that Tories stop eating babies........
All London airspace closed until 19:00 GMT as the result of computer failure, European flight safety body says http://bbc.in/1xa4hDH
Thanks Shadsy.
LDs look the buy there and I've had fifty quid.
Sent you an email a week or so back about constituency betting. Went to your private email address. I'll resend in case it got caught in the spam trap.
Staring at her naked body, I asked what she wanted. She told me to go for something between a smack and a stroke. So I went for a smoke.
Edit: And I forgot - thanks for doing the graph. Very nice to have it.
Take that Gordon and his trifling council tax pre-election bribe!!! Here's a proper pre-election bribe for the grey voter
George Osborne@George_Osborne·17 mins17 minutes ago
Can announce our new 65 plus pensioner bonds will pay the best available interest rates – 4% on 3 yr bonds and 2.8% on 1 yr bonds
What would 'any other' be? Con-Lab is one possibility but I can't see that as a possible outcome of a May 2015 election. Possibly Sept/Oct 2015 but even then unlikely - it would of itself generate massive defections to all and sundry but UKIP in particular would be smiling.
A three-party coalition is also theoretically possible but would any of the nationalists or unionists in NI want to take ministerial office when most of the offices relate to England and either way they'd be collectively responsible for English policy? Likewise the Greens? There's almost certainly more to be had for very small parties negotiating on a vote-by-vote basis (similarly, for the Lab / Con government leader, is the hassle of coalition worth the gains in the lobbies in inviting into coalition a party with 1-3 seats?
Governments led by someone other than Con or Lab are also technical possibilities but here we really are straying into the realm of the deeply improbable.
Is 4/1 worth it for 'any other'? Not now. IIRC, Mike got on when the Con- and Lab-minority options weren't listed, which most certainly did represent value. The most likely scenarios are for Con or Lab to formally go in with their NI ally, though frankly I don't see it happening. (Even if it were just one MP, it would trigger the result).
Socrates has pulled all the breakers to stop foreign flights landing.
Unfortunately, whatever you have been told by David Cameron, there was no credible financial package on offer to executive ministers to allow us to combat the austerity agenda that this government has been inflicting on us
So, the UK PM wasn't offering NI the ability to combat the UK PM's national agenda? Shocking.
That said, Mike's pick of "Any Other" doesn't appeal at all at measly odds of just under 4/1 with Betfair .... I'd want at least double or three times that price.
It seems to me that the most likely GE outcome is that Labour will win the most seats, probably with between 270 and 300 seats in which case they will have little choice other than to enter into coalition, probably with one or even two partners, depending on the number of seats won by those would-be partners.
Let's suppose a not unlikely scenario where both the LibDems and SNP were each to win around 25-30 seats. Those nice folk at Ladbrokes will offer you 20/1 against a Labour-SNP Coalition (I obtained 25/1 for this bet a few weeks ago), or if there is a need to include the Yellows in order to bolster the numbers, then the Magic Sign are offering 25/1 against a 3 way Lab-SNP-LibDem coalition and I've risked a tenner on just such an outcome.
DYOR.
NATS can confirm that a technical problem has been reported at Swanwick air traffic control centre.
UK airspace has not been closed, but airspace capacity has been restricted in order to manage the situation. We apologise for any delays and our incident response team has been mobilised.
Every possible action is being taken to assist in resolving the situation and to confirm the details.
Further information will be released as it becomes available.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
If Labour need to cobble together a coalition they have the options of SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Lady Hermon and possibly the Greens, Alliance or Sinn Fein (if they take their seats). Labour could do a deal with all the Northern Irish MPs which would give them up to 18.
Brilliant to have 5 Councillors in West Norfolk join UKIP today. Welcome! http://bit.ly/1GtTOTl
That'd give 8 or so seats if they voted with SDLP.