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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage votin

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    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    Of all the weird things in life to have a hang up about.

    What's weird is why women wear them. What are they for, exactly??

    They are there so that, particularly in the earlier stages of pregnancy when often a woman can feel much fainter and sicker than later on, someone can offer their seat without feeling foolish. Unfortunately - and this has happened to me - even when very visibly pregnant I have had men stampede past me for the last seat or not offer up their seat. This is plain bad manners. The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Breast feeding in public is also plain bad manners since many people find it embarrassing.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    isam said:

    FWIW I didn't offer any opinion on breastfeeding, just that I think many people aren't horrified by the thought of acknowledging some people are uncomfortable with it

    Same as any other progressive style issue that people who are in favour of can only see one side of, and like to get their kicks by calling people who don't agree with them names

    Same as it ever was, except the actors have changed sides

    Anyway @TheScreamingEagles should have done this himself, and if he did I apologise, but yesterday he linked to a story about an anti semitic tweet from "NorthLondonLabour". It was criticising a Jewish UKIP candidate, but looked suspect from the outset...

    It transpires to be another set up courtesy of the person responsible for the fake UKIP twitter accounts, Joshua Bonehill and nothing to do with the Labour Party at all

    If they feel uncomfortable they don't need to watch. I feel uncomfortable - actually rather appalled - at the sight of people doing their toilette on the tube (there was a man actually shaving on the tube the other day). So I avoid looking. It's plain bad manners to leave the house before you're fully washed and dressed and complete the process on public transport.

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    With all this outrage about breastfeeding in public, maybe we really are going back to the 1930s!
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,473
    edited December 2014

    Are we really saying Claridges can't decide their own breastfeeding policy? How utterly big state and illiberal.

    Well UKIP wanted to impose strict colour schemes on private companies in their last manifesto (re rail companies)
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    Farage says women should not breast feed in a "ostentatious" fashion.

    So pole dancing whilst feeding the nipper is definitely out of the question.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30342953

    The vast majority of people would probably agree with him, including most women.

    It's interesting how Farage keeps making statements that are common sense, but which the other party leaders would never utter in a million years.
    So: is this a dog whistle to people who don't want *any* breastfeeding in public? Or does the site of a bit of naked tit send Mr Farage into a frenzy?

    It just all seems... so absurd.
    It was a radio phone-in show.
    Asked about his views on the subject in his monthly LBC phone-in, Mr Farage said he was not "particularly bothered" by women breastfeeding in public.

    But he added: "I know a lot of people do feel very uncomfortable. It isn't too difficult to breastfeed a baby in a way that's not openly ostentatious."

    Asked if Claridge's had been wrong, Mr Farage, who has four children, said: "That's up to Claridge's. I think it should be. If you're running an establishment you should have rules."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30342953


    Perfectly reasonable response.

    Probably the lefty media have picked up how the lefty media in America push a 'Republican war on women' narrative to scare women into voting for parties of the left.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Farage says women should not breast feed in a "ostentatious" fashion.

    So pole dancing whilst feeding the nipper is definitely out of the question.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30342953

    I predict this will be yet another case where members of every other party say breastfeeding anywhere is perfectly normal, and pretend to be utterly confused by anyone thinking different, whereas there is a large section of the population who think it should be done in the toilet or changing room

    For the baby breastfeeding anywhere is perfectly normal and confining a mother and child to a toilet or changing room (if one may be found) is the sort of nonsense one is becoming casually used to from male kippers.



    Everyone is entitled to their opinion
    Everyone is entitled to disapprove of same.

    Was there any need to post that? You're just saying what I already have
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    I predict this will be yet another case where members of every other party say breastfeeding anywhere is perfectly normal

    They will. Because it is.

    isam said:

    and pretend to be utterly confused by anyone thinking different, whereas there is a large section of the population who think it should be done in the toilet or changing room

    Anyone who is offended by the perfectly natural sight of a mother feeding her child can solve the problem by taking themselves off to the toilet to eat their meal.
    You're just proving my point for me
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Are we really saying Claridges can't decide their own breastfeeding policy? How utterly big state and illiberal.

    Claridges has as much right to have its own breastfeeding policy as the Metro has to its policy on whose autumn statement responses to carry. And everyone on pbc has the right to be 100% outraged 100% of the time.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    If you're running an establishment you should have rules."

    Absolutely. IF you don't like it, don't go there. Millions of others will, if only to avoid, not your baby, but the stench of your self-righteousness.

    Of course. I must have forgotten: when I was feeding my child I was being self-righteous. Not just trying to be a good mother and feed my child in the most natural and easiest way possible.

    Far better for mothers to be locked away at home and keep their disgusting breasts and babies out of sight eh. After all we don't have pictures of breasts on show in newsagents and advertising hoardings. The very idea!
    I blame the BBC.

    It all started going down hill when the Beeb allowed Russ Conway to play the piano with the legs uncovered.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.
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    I forgot to mention I flicked through the Metro on the train yesterday, with an infographic of all the 'main party' responses to the Autumn statement. The Greens were there, UKIP wasn't. An absence so blatantly partisan as to be more or less an open provocation. UKIP need to stop expecting fair treatment from big media and start bypassing it.

    What was UKIP's response to the Autumn statement?

    Reckless said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30315164

    O'Flynn said: http://www.ukip.org/patrick_o_flynn_initial_autumn_statement_reaction

    Farage said: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/543946/Foreign-aid-bill-1billion-more-than-expected-bill
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,385

    I forgot to mention I flicked through the Metro on the train yesterday, with an infographic of all the 'main party' responses to the Autumn statement. The Greens were there, UKIP wasn't. An absence so blatantly partisan as to be more or less an open provocation. UKIP need to stop expecting fair treatment from big media and start bypassing it.

    You do know who owns Metro, right?
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    Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Is breastfeeding a big deal, or any sort of deal at all? I live in London which, we are endlessly assured on here. Is the liberal-leftie rich hippy yummy mummy capital of the universe. I reckon I've seen about one woman breastfeeding in public in, er, the past year.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,473
    edited December 2014
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    FWIW I didn't offer any opinion on breastfeeding, just that I think many people aren't horrified by the thought of acknowledging some people are uncomfortable with it

    Same as any other progressive style issue that people who are in favour of can only see one side of, and like to get their kicks by calling people who don't agree with them names

    Same as it ever was, except the actors have changed sides

    Anyway @TheScreamingEagles should have done this himself, and if he did I apologise, but yesterday he linked to a story about an anti semitic tweet from "NorthLondonLabour". It was criticising a Jewish UKIP candidate, but looked suspect from the outset...

    It transpires to be another set up courtesy of the person responsible for the fake UKIP twitter accounts, Joshua Bonehill and nothing to do with the Labour Party at all

    If they feel uncomfortable they don't need to watch. I feel uncomfortable - actually rather appalled - at the sight of people doing their toilette on the tube (there was a man actually shaving on the tube the other day). So I avoid looking. It's plain bad manners to leave the house before you're fully washed and dressed and complete the process on public transport.

    although I agree with you on breastfeeding I think its a bit much to illustrate your dislike of public grooming by giving a male example. You have to agree its the ladies who are the ones most likely to apply various substances publically in the name of grooming and vanity
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    Shortest Scottish Conservative prices for GE 2015:
    (incumbent in brackets)

    Odds-on FAV:
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 4/11

    Other prices under 50/1:
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (LD) 11/10
    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (LD) 5/2
    Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) 7/1
    Edinburgh South West (Lab) 12/1
    Perth & North Perthshire (SNP) 12/1
    Argyll & Bute (LD) 16/1
    Edinburgh West (LD) 16/1
    East Renfewshire (Lab) 20/1
    Edinburgh South (Lab) 20/1
    Angus (SNP) 20/1
    Banff & Buchan (SNP) 20/1
    Moray (SNP) 25/1
    Aberdeen South (Lab) 33/1
    Gordon (LD) 33/1
    North East Fife (LD) 33/1

    Looking to be yet another grim election for the Scottish Tories.


    Dumfries looks a bit of value at 7/1
    Agreed.

    When I look down that list only 2 Scottish Tory prices stand out as potential value:
    - Dumfries and Galloway 7/1
    - North East Fife 33/1

    Here was the Dumfries result last time round:

    Lab (Russell Brown MP) 23,950
    Con (Peter Duncan, the MP between 2001-2005) 16,501
    SNP 6,419
    LD 4,608
    UKIP 695

    The Shadsy prices are currently:

    Lab 1/4
    SNP 5/1
    Con 7/1
    100 bar

    The Tories have decided to drop the weak former MP Peter Duncan and have chosen a bright local farmer Cllr Finlay Carson. He is an altogether more likeable figure and ought to be shorter than 7/1. Perhaps 4/1 ?

    On the minus side, they are still hampered by having the dire Alex Fergusson MSP as their local Holyrood face.

    But when the Betfair markets open I would be laying Labour at 1/4 rather than backing Con at 7/1.

    The NE Fife 33/1 is just a silly price. CON should not be longer than 10/1 in the seat Menzies Campbell is vacating.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Claridges will have many guests from the Middle East who would be offended by public breastfeeding.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    With all this outrage about breastfeeding in public, maybe we really are going back to the 1930s!

    I can guarantee you that we would not be having this conversation in Italy or France or many other countries which have a rather better appreciation of mothers and babies.

    And, pace MonikerdiCanio: if feeding children is embarrassing, how embarrassing is it it to listen to a hungry baby crying? You don't have time to wait if you are out and it is cruel to let a child cry just because some adult nearby can't behave like an adult.

    Still I don't go to Claridges and not to Starbucks either - but largely because their coffee is rubbish.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    taffys said:


    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Pregnant women and their badges. When will they stop oppressing us?
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    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Oh eff off!
    It's just plain human decency to do something that benefits another, at little cost to yourself.
    offering a seat, holding a door, helping carry a pushchair up stairs, why wouldn't you do any of that?

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    Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    FWIW I didn't offer any opinion on breastfeeding, just that I think many people aren't horrified by the thought of acknowledging some people are uncomfortable with it

    Same as any other progressive style issue that people who are in favour of can only see one side of, and like to get their kicks by calling people who don't agree with them names

    Same as it ever was, except the actors have changed sides

    Anyway @TheScreamingEagles should have done this himself, and if he did I apologise, but yesterday he linked to a story about an anti semitic tweet from "NorthLondonLabour". It was criticising a Jewish UKIP candidate, but looked suspect from the outset...

    It transpires to be another set up courtesy of the person responsible for the fake UKIP twitter accounts, Joshua Bonehill and nothing to do with the Labour Party at all

    If they feel uncomfortable they don't need to watch. I feel uncomfortable - actually rather appalled - at the sight of people doing their toilette on the tube (there was a man actually shaving on the tube the other day). So I avoid looking. It's plain bad manners to leave the house before you're fully washed and dressed and complete the process on public transport.

    although I agree with you on breastfeeding I think its a bit much to illustrate your dislike of public grooming by giving a male example. You have to agree its the ladies who are the ones most likely to apply various substances publically in the name of grooming and vanity
    Putting makeup on the tube is - unlike breastfeeding - an everyday sight. I wince when girls put on mascara as I always worry that they are going to poke themselves in the eye. Never seen an accident though thankfully
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited December 2014
    Presumably there comes a point in public service cuts where people start dying unnecessarly because of inadequate fire/paramedic etc supply?

    We are already well beyond that. There is an infinite demand for medical services. A taxpayer funded free-at-point-of-use system such as the NHS already makes very clear life and death decisions based on availability / worth. Remember all the arguments when Obamacare was introduced? People die because our NHS budget is X. Fact. But governments have to make this choice. At what point does spending more money to 'save' one more life become untenable? 'Unnecessarily' implies there is no risk / reward calculation. But there is. Is the argument for the fire service any different? I'm sure we all would like to know there is an on-duty fire engine within reasonable distance of us right now. Should we spend X to ensure there is one closer? Depends on the marginal value of a limited supply of money to make it so.

    All I'm saying is that any budget choice implies a cost / benefit decision. And it is not always to society's broader benefit to spend more money. Ask the Greek firemen.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,736
    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    If you're running an establishment you should have rules."

    Absolutely. IF you don't like it, don't go there. Millions of others will, if only to avoid, not your baby, but the stench of your self-righteousness.

    Of course. I must have forgotten: when I was feeding my child I was being self-righteous. Not just trying to be a good mother and feed my child in the most natural and easiest way possible.

    Far better for mothers to be locked away at home and keep their disgusting breasts and babies out of sight eh. After all we don't have pictures of breasts on show in newsagents and advertising hoardings. The very idea!
    OTT much? If you're going to a highly formal luxury environment like Claridges, make a one time exception and take a bottle (shock horror), do it under a loose jacket, do it elsewhere, or even just don't take your baby there -if I'm paying £50 for afternoon tea I expect total relaxation, and I don't want a crying baby at the next table. Sorry if that offends, but there it is.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited December 2014
    ''Claridges has as much right to have its own breastfeeding policy as the Metro has to its policy on whose autumn statement responses to carry. ''

    Well the Metro has that choice. Of course it would soon go out of business if it didn;t carry the autumn statement.

    Claridge's position won;t drive it out of business because there are enough people who don;t want to watch someone breatfeeding while they are eating their (very expensive) lunch.

    And that is what really grates the shriekers of outrage on this site.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,736
    rcs1000 said:

    I forgot to mention I flicked through the Metro on the train yesterday, with an infographic of all the 'main party' responses to the Autumn statement. The Greens were there, UKIP wasn't. An absence so blatantly partisan as to be more or less an open provocation. UKIP need to stop expecting fair treatment from big media and start bypassing it.

    You do know who owns Metro, right?
    I thought it was the Daily Mail group? Could be wrong.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Really you're being ridiculous. The badge is not my idea. They weren't around when I was pregnant. There is no browbeating involved.

    But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me. Legality is not the issue. Civilised behaviour is. It is uncivil IMO to occupy a seat when someone else needs it more than you.

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    My boss always seems happy to breastfeed her baby whenever my colleagues and I go out for an evening meal.
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    If we had a row of breastfeeding chairs in each restaurant and also a row of fee paying breastfeeding mother titty ogling chairs right opposite then everyone would be happy no?
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    Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195

    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    If you're running an establishment you should have rules."

    Absolutely. IF you don't like it, don't go there. Millions of others will, if only to avoid, not your baby, but the stench of your self-righteousness.

    Of course. I must have forgotten: when I was feeding my child I was being self-righteous. Not just trying to be a good mother and feed my child in the most natural and easiest way possible.

    Far better for mothers to be locked away at home and keep their disgusting breasts and babies out of sight eh. After all we don't have pictures of breasts on show in newsagents and advertising hoardings. The very idea!
    OTT much? If you're going to a highly formal luxury environment like Claridges, make a one time exception and take a bottle (shock horror), do it under a loose jacket, do it elsewhere, or even just don't take your baby there -if I'm paying £50 for afternoon tea I expect total relaxation, and I don't want a crying baby at the next table. Sorry if that offends, but there it is.

    To be fair you hit on an interesting point: why not just ban children under 5 from the restaurant?
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    Neil said:

    Are we really saying Claridges can't decide their own breastfeeding policy? How utterly big state and illiberal.

    Claridges has as much right to have its own breastfeeding policy as the Metro has to its policy on whose autumn statement responses to carry. And everyone on pbc has the right to be 100% outraged 100% of the time.

    Neil! I am thoroughly 100% outraged by your message just now! How very dare you!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Farage says women should not breast feed in a "ostentatious" fashion.

    So pole dancing whilst feeding the nipper is definitely out of the question.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30342953

    I predict this will be yet another case where members of every other party say breastfeeding anywhere is perfectly normal, and pretend to be utterly confused by anyone thinking different, whereas there is a large section of the population who think it should be done in the toilet or changing room

    For the baby breastfeeding anywhere is perfectly normal and confining a mother and child to a toilet or changing room (if one may be found) is the sort of nonsense one is becoming casually used to from male kippers.



    Everyone is entitled to their opinion
    Everyone is entitled to disapprove of same.

    Was there any need to post that? You're just saying what I already have
    Perish the thought.

    Am I allowed to join the Kipper Club now ? .... c/o

    Mrs N Farage
    Near the Cooker
    Cover Yer Boobs Cottage
    Ostentatious Way
    South Thanet
    Three Lions-shire




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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    FWIW I didn't offer any opinion on breastfeeding, just that I think many people aren't horrified by the thought of acknowledging some people are uncomfortable with it

    Same as any other progressive style issue that people who are in favour of can only see one side of, and like to get their kicks by calling people who don't agree with them names

    Same as it ever was, except the actors have changed sides

    Anyway @TheScreamingEagles should have done this himself, and if he did I apologise, but yesterday he linked to a story about an anti semitic tweet from "NorthLondonLabour". It was criticising a Jewish UKIP candidate, but looked suspect from the outset...

    It transpires to be another set up courtesy of the person responsible for the fake UKIP twitter accounts, Joshua Bonehill and nothing to do with the Labour Party at all

    If they feel uncomfortable they don't need to watch. I feel uncomfortable - actually rather appalled - at the sight of people doing their toilette on the tube (there was a man actually shaving on the tube the other day). So I avoid looking. It's plain bad manners to leave the house before you're fully washed and dressed and complete the process on public transport.

    although I agree with you on breastfeeding I think its a bit much to illustrate your dislike of public grooming by giving a male example. You have to agree its the ladies who are the ones most likely to apply various substances publically in the name of grooming and vanity
    Oh yes: I agree. But this happened so recently that it stuck in my mind, probably because of the rarity value.

  • Options

    Shortest Scottish Conservative prices for GE 2015:
    (incumbent in brackets)

    Odds-on FAV:
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 4/11

    Other prices under 50/1:
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (LD) 11/10
    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (LD) 5/2
    Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) 7/1
    Edinburgh South West (Lab) 12/1
    Perth & North Perthshire (SNP) 12/1
    Argyll & Bute (LD) 16/1
    Edinburgh West (LD) 16/1
    East Renfewshire (Lab) 20/1
    Edinburgh South (Lab) 20/1
    Angus (SNP) 20/1
    Banff & Buchan (SNP) 20/1
    Moray (SNP) 25/1
    Aberdeen South (Lab) 33/1
    Gordon (LD) 33/1
    North East Fife (LD) 33/1

    Looking to be yet another grim election for the Scottish Tories.


    Dumfries looks a bit of value at 7/1
    Agreed.

    When I look down that list only 2 Scottish Tory prices stand out as potential value:
    - Dumfries and Galloway 7/1
    - North East Fife 33/1

    Here was the Dumfries result last time round:

    Lab (Russell Brown MP) 23,950
    Con (Peter Duncan, the MP between 2001-2005) 16,501
    SNP 6,419
    LD 4,608
    UKIP 695

    The Shadsy prices are currently:

    Lab 1/4
    SNP 5/1
    Con 7/1
    100 bar

    The Tories have decided to drop the weak former MP Peter Duncan and have chosen a bright local farmer Cllr Finlay Carson. He is an altogether more likeable figure and ought to be shorter than 7/1. Perhaps 4/1 ?

    On the minus side, they are still hampered by having the dire Alex Fergusson MSP as their local Holyrood face.

    But when the Betfair markets open I would be laying Labour at 1/4 rather than backing Con at 7/1.

    The NE Fife 33/1 is just a silly price. CON should not be longer than 10/1 in the seat Menzies Campbell is vacating.
    I'd forgotten that Peter Duncan was actually the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland between 2003 and 2005. A sign of the dramatic loss of status for that post. Remember the heady days when headline names like Willie Ross, Donald Dewar and George Robertson held that post.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Really you're being ridiculous. The badge is not my idea. They weren't around when I was pregnant. There is no browbeating involved.

    But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me. Legality is not the issue. Civilised behaviour is. It is uncivil IMO to occupy a seat when someone else needs it more than you.

    The grey area is the new trend for adults to give up their seat for small children, that I do not do. Helping with a pram on the stairs is the much neglected courtesy.
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    Patrick said:

    Presumably there comes a point in public service cuts where people start dying unnecessarly because of inadequate fire/paramedic etc supply?

    We are already well beyond that. There is an infinite demand for medical services. A taxpayer funded free-at-point-of-use system such as the NHS already makes very clear life and death decisions based on availability / worth. Remember all the arguments when Obamacare was introduced? People die because our NHS budget is X. Fact. But governments have to make this choice. At what point does spending more money to 'save' one more life become untenable? 'Unnecessarily' implies there is no risk / reward calculation. But there is. Is the argument for the fire service any different? I'm sure we all would like to know there is an on-duty fire engine within reasonable distance of us right now. Should we spend X to ensure there is one closer? Depends on the marginal value of a limited supply of money to make it so.

    All I'm saying is that any budget choice implies a cost / benefit decision. And it is not always to society's broader benefit to spend more money. Ask the Greek firemen.

    I'm probably boring people, but what I'm trying to say is that we're getting to the point, or will be in the near future, where fire cover, just like police and ambulance cover will be insufficient. I'm not calling for more, just enough, in the right place. We're losing that.

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    Whither crossover?

    "Part-ELBOW" - 8 polls so far this week inc. Populus and the latest YouGov:

    Lab 32.8%
    Con 31.8%
    UKIP 15.5%
    LD 7.6%

    Lab lead 1.0%

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It's just plain human decency to do something that benefits another, at little cost to yourself.
    offering a seat, holding a door, helping carry a pushchair up stairs, why wouldn't you do any of that?

    Sorry mate, I though women wanted equality. I thought they wanted to be treated the same as men.

    It seems they do, until they want to be given priority. Then they do not wish to be treated equally. They wish to be treated specially.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Obviously I am uber biased to UKIP, but doesn't Labours attack ad just look like a UKIP ad to the casual passer by?

    Owen Smith MP ‏@OwenSmithMP · 1h1 hour ago
    Wishing @Nigel_Farage a warm Labour welcome to Wales. Hope our new ad van isn't too ostentatious for you. pic.twitter.com/pLYRNNLEgw

    Nigel FarageVerified account
    @Nigel_Farage .@OwenSmithMP Bit ostentatious in terms of time spent. If I were you I'd be trying to fix Wales' broken NHS rather than posing with ad vans!

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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited December 2014
    Roger said:

    Square Root

    "The Mail and Telegraph are full of stuff about Lefty BBC "asst political editor" journo Norman Smith and his biased reporting of the budget. Frankly one thinks that's par for the course. He was involved in a row at no 10 last yr methinks."

    Back to the ugly days of Thatcher. Bully the news channels...if you're not with us you're against us. It's as much a reason why there is still such a residual loathing of the Tory Party and their lackeys in the right wing press as there always was.

    It's also a reason why there will always be a large tactical vote against the Tories whoever they are facing. Right wing bullies have never been appealing in the UK

    Left wing bullies are ok though eh?

    You DO remember the last Labour government dont you?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Titties!

    I'm getting over excited and should probably go for lunch now.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    FalseFlag said:

    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Really you're being ridiculous. The badge is not my idea. They weren't around when I was pregnant. There is no browbeating involved.

    But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me. Legality is not the issue. Civilised behaviour is. It is uncivil IMO to occupy a seat when someone else needs it more than you.

    The grey area is the new trend for adults to give up their seat for small children, that I do not do. Helping with a pram on the stairs is the much neglected courtesy.
    Agreed - and I do try and help with that. Children should be giving up their seats not demanding them. On that I agree.

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Farage tweet

    See if you can spot a PBer (or ex PBer) in the replies...

    Nigel FarageVerified account
    @Nigel_Farage Quite confused as to where this "should" sit in a corner thing came from. I simply didn't say it. Said I had no problem with it personally.
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    Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    FalseFlag said:

    Claridges will have many guests from

    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    And they say the age of chivalry is dead.....

    The badges are actually very useful as sometimes you are not sure a woman is pregnant and are worried you might offend her if you offer a seat and she's just a bit fat!!
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,736
    Neil said:

    Are we really saying Claridges can't decide their own breastfeeding policy? How utterly big state and illiberal.

    Claridges has as much right to have its own breastfeeding policy as the Metro has to its policy on whose autumn statement responses to carry. And everyone on pbc has the right to be 100% outraged 100% of the time.

    Yes. :) However, I choose to be outraged by flagrant bias in a national (free) newspaper that is purporting to offer an overview of British politics, others are outraged by Nigel Farage not minding that Claridges told someone to cover up their boob in the Palm Court.

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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    You can see why Ukip has a woman problem in the polling and Farage's comments re-inforces this weakness.Conversely it may re-inforce also the sexism of old angry white men who have failed to keep up with modern standards and confirm their support for Ukip's dinosaurs.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FalseFlag said:

    Claridges will have many guests from the Middle East who would be offended by public breastfeeding.

    They're not in the Middle East though.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me.''

    Frankly I find it utterly shameful and shocking that you group the disabled and old with women who are pregnant.

    Women who are pregnant are overwhelmingly so by choice. And they are mostly young and healthy.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Given this thread is way off topic - I thought this would amuse telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11274801/Hypnotist-thief-puts-shopkeeper-in-trance-before-robbing-him.html

    The CCTV footage is bizarre.
    Thief captured on CCTV using Derren Brown-style hypnosis to put a shopkeeper in a trance before stealing his wallet and cash from his pockets
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,473
    edited December 2014
    FalseFlag said:

    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Really you're being ridiculous. The badge is not my idea. They weren't around when I was pregnant. There is no browbeating involved.

    But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me. Legality is not the issue. Civilised behaviour is. It is uncivil IMO to occupy a seat when someone else needs it more than you.

    The grey area is the new trend for adults to give up their seat for small children, that I do not do. Helping with a pram on the stairs is the much neglected courtesy.
    Elliot Ness had this courtesy issue on the trail of Al Capone in the shoot out in Grand Central station New York (The Untouchables) .What a nice man that he still helped the lady down the stairs even if it meant risking getting shot by AL Capone cronies!!

    1930's you see , great they are coming back!!
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    Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    taffys said:

    It's just plain human decency to do something that benefits another, at little cost to yourself.
    offering a seat, holding a door, helping carry a pushchair up stairs, why wouldn't you do any of that?

    Sorry mate, I though women wanted equality. I thought they wanted to be treated the same as men.

    It seems they do, until they want to be given priority. Then they do not wish to be treated equally. They wish to be treated specially.

    If they are carrying a child....
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,736
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    FWIW I didn't offer any opinion on breastfeeding, just that I think many people aren't horrified by the thought of acknowledging some people are uncomfortable with it

    Same as any other progressive style issue that people who are in favour of can only see one side of, and like to get their kicks by calling people who don't agree with them names

    Same as it ever was, except the actors have changed sides

    Anyway @TheScreamingEagles should have done this himself, and if he did I apologise, but yesterday he linked to a story about an anti semitic tweet from "NorthLondonLabour". It was criticising a Jewish UKIP candidate, but looked suspect from the outset...

    It transpires to be another set up courtesy of the person responsible for the fake UKIP twitter accounts, Joshua Bonehill and nothing to do with the Labour Party at all

    If they feel uncomfortable they don't need to watch. I feel uncomfortable - actually rather appalled - at the sight of people doing their toilette on the tube (there was a man actually shaving on the tube the other day). So I avoid looking. It's plain bad manners to leave the house before you're fully washed and dressed and complete the process on public transport.

    although I agree with you on breastfeeding I think its a bit much to illustrate your dislike of public grooming by giving a male example. You have to agree its the ladies who are the ones most likely to apply various substances publically in the name of grooming and vanity
    Oh yes: I agree. But this happened so recently that it stuck in my mind, probably because of the rarity value.

    So if you 'just look elsewhere' when this gentleman shaves on the tube, would you be happy to do so at Claridges?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just watched the Farage LBC thing.. if anyone watches that and thinks he is criticising anyone for Breastfeeding in public then they simply aren't worth listening to.. he simply didn't say it
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I thought Baby On Board signs were to warn other vehicles that the car driver in front may be distracted by wailing or fighting small children.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,614
    JackW said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Claridges will have many guests from the Middle East who would be offended by public breastfeeding.

    They're not in the Middle East though.

    Quite.
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    isam said:

    Just watched the Farage LBC thing.. if anyone watches that and thinks he is criticising anyone for Breastfeeding in public then they simply aren't worth listening to.. he simply didn't say it

    I'd agree with that, and Im not a fan of Farage. His comment was reasonable, but I guess he will be jumped on for his Claridges comment.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    taffys said:

    ''But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me.''

    Frankly I find it utterly shameful and shocking that you group the disabled and old with women who are pregnant.

    Women who are pregnant are overwhelmingly so by choice. And they are mostly young and healthy.

    Do me a favour. Women who are pregnant are less able to do things that non pregnant women are able to do, and it is perfectly acceptable to help them out by offering a seat etc

    Please tell me you are mucking about and I have fallen for it
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,736

    I forgot to mention I flicked through the Metro on the train yesterday, with an infographic of all the 'main party' responses to the Autumn statement. The Greens were there, UKIP wasn't. An absence so blatantly partisan as to be more or less an open provocation. UKIP need to stop expecting fair treatment from big media and start bypassing it.

    What was UKIP's response to the Autumn statement?

    Reckless said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30315164

    O'Flynn said: http://www.ukip.org/patrick_o_flynn_initial_autumn_statement_reaction

    Farage said: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/543946/Foreign-aid-bill-1billion-more-than-expected-bill
    I'm not sure what your point is. They could have picked one? Any? All?

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    taffys said:

    It's just plain human decency to do something that benefits another, at little cost to yourself.
    offering a seat, holding a door, helping carry a pushchair up stairs, why wouldn't you do any of that?

    Sorry mate, I though women wanted equality. I thought they wanted to be treated the same as men.

    It seems they do, until they want to be given priority. Then they do not wish to be treated equally. They wish to be treated specially.

    Why are you assuming it's about women? I offer seats to elderly gentlemen, hold open the door for anyone coming after me, whoever they are, offer to help anyone who appears to need help.

    And the reason for offering a seat to a pregnant woman is because at various stages of pregnancy you can feel faint / tired etc - regardless of age (as any woman who has been pregnant will know) and it is not good for the health of the woman or her unborn child so it is simple civility to do so. Why people have difficulty with this concept I don't know.

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    Plato said:

    I thought Baby On Board signs were to warn other vehicles that the car driver in front may be distracted by wailing or fighting small children.

    I think we are talking about signs on your personage not your vehicle. FWIW I once had this argument with my wife about car stickers saying 'baby on board' I thought they were perfectly reasonable in the sense that you cannot see a small child or baby in the back from a car behind and maybe it you do see people in the back seat it makes you back off slightly . I said anything to reduce tailgating is good but my wife said people were just showing off
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    DavidL said:


    Based on the current polling averages, with Con 31%, Lab 33%, LibDems 8% and UKIP 16%, Stephen Fisher's latest 2015 GE seats projection (showing changes over the past week) is as follows:

    Con ............... 292 (- 6 seats)
    Lab ............... 298 ( + 5 seats)
    Lib Dems ...... . 29 (+1 seat)
    Others ............ 31 ( unchanged)

    Total ............ 650 seats

    This is a reflection of the tories continuing to fail to make the progress anticipated in the original model based on average swingback in previous elections. Although Labour are falling away the Tories are finding it incredibly difficult to improve beyond the low 30s with most of Labour's fall going to other parties, notably the Greens in recent times.

    If the Tories are going to win they need to start lifting their share of the vote and soon. It does not look as if the Autumn Statement is going to achieve that.
    Not sure there are other vote-changing events expected before the election, apart from the Budget, which is best seen as part of the election campaign (which doesn't usually change very much). There's always black swans, but the timescale is getting short for them to turn up. I think the main factor that we might see change is UKIP's share - that's probably not yet as rock-solid as the Tory and Labour vote, if only because many not very political people always vote the same way without giving it much thought.

    A friend's niece told me recently that she always voted Tory, "don't know why really but the family do". Her level of engagement was illustrated by the fact that she said she'd discovered that there was more than one country in Africa - she'd always assumed it was just one. She has an expensive private education and currently runs a small business in Buckinghamshire. It's possible to find similar examples in every party - I have a supporter who is so xenophobic that he thinks it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain. I've asked him why he votes for me, and he says "No idea, just habit really". UKIP doesn't have many voters who are in the habit yet.

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    FWIW I didn't offer any opinion on breastfeeding, just that I think many people aren't horrified by the thought of acknowledging some people are uncomfortable with it

    Same as any other progressive style issue that people who are in favour of can only see one side of, and like to get their kicks by calling people who don't agree with them names

    Same as it ever was, except the actors have changed sides

    Anyway @TheScreamingEagles should have done this himself, and if he did I apologise, but yesterday he linked to a story about an anti semitic tweet from "NorthLondonLabour". It was criticising a Jewish UKIP candidate, but looked suspect from the outset...

    It transpires to be another set up courtesy of the person responsible for the fake UKIP twitter accounts, Joshua Bonehill and nothing to do with the Labour Party at all

    If they feel uncomfortable they don't need to watch. I feel uncomfortable - actually rather appalled - at the sight of people doing their toilette on the tube (there was a man actually shaving on the tube the other day). So I avoid looking. It's plain bad manners to leave the house before you're fully washed and dressed and complete the process on public transport.

    although I agree with you on breastfeeding I think its a bit much to illustrate your dislike of public grooming by giving a male example. You have to agree its the ladies who are the ones most likely to apply various substances publically in the name of grooming and vanity
    Oh yes: I agree. But this happened so recently that it stuck in my mind, probably because of the rarity value.

    So if you 'just look elsewhere' when this gentleman shaves on the tube, would you be happy to do so at Claridges?
    I'm not sure what your point is. But generally I try to live and let live.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352

    Re breast-feeding,

    My daughter who lives in Sydney breast fed both my grandsons when they needed it. When they last visited, I remember her breast feeding discreetly in the Liverpool FC shop in Liverpool One .We were looking for a replica shirt as my Australian son-in-law is a Liverpool fan.

    The shoppers were totally unconcerned and didn't stare. As I told her, they watch eleven tits every Saturday, so what's the problem?

    Seriously, I honestly don't see the problem.

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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    isam said:

    Just watched the Farage LBC thing.. if anyone watches that and thinks he is criticising anyone for Breastfeeding in public then they simply aren't worth listening to.. he simply didn't say it

    The media create their own reality, the UKIP war on women narrative must be sustained.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me.''

    Frankly I find it utterly shameful and shocking that you group the disabled and old with women who are pregnant.

    Women who are pregnant are overwhelmingly so by choice. And they are mostly young and healthy.

    Do me a favour. Women who are pregnant are less able to do things that non pregnant women are able to do, and it is perfectly acceptable to help them out by offering a seat etc

    Please tell me you are mucking about and I have fallen for it
    Exactly. I can't believe anyone that says such a thing has ever had any experience with pregnant women. Particularly in the first trimester, they really struggle with balance, and any fall comes at a risk of miscarriage. It's the height of rudeness to make them stand on a moving train.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,614
    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.
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    The High Court has ruled it unlawful to not to increase the supply of drugs to prisoners:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30344867
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    Based on the current polling averages, with Con 31%, Lab 33%, LibDems 8% and UKIP 16%, Stephen Fisher's latest 2015 GE seats projection (showing changes over the past week) is as follows:

    Con ............... 292 (- 6 seats)
    Lab ............... 298 ( + 5 seats)
    Lib Dems ...... . 29 (+1 seat)
    Others ............ 31 ( unchanged)

    Total ............ 650 seats

    And then allow Lab -20 SNP +20 as usual for Fisher; the model will get discredited if he doesn't do something about Scotland soon [notwithstanding that it could swing back to Labour over the next 5 months].
    Tissue Price, JackW, etc - I agree, it does seem extraordinary that Dr Fisher & his team are choosing, seemingly, to ignore altogether the recent surge in the SNP's share of the vote, suggesting that the party might win between 20-40 seats North of the Border.
    Presumably the model, as currently constructed, simply doesn't allow for such modifications, which is inevitably bringing into question its validity.
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    DavidL said:

    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.

    maybe she wanted you to be an American Football player?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ah - now I get this discussion - it had me confused! Wearing a badge to tell everyone you're pregnant seems rather flashy to me.

    Still, it stops somebody making a terrible faux pas and offering their congratuations on your large lunch by mistake! Anyone who has ever done that or been on the wrong end of it knows what I mean here...

    Plato said:

    I thought Baby On Board signs were to warn other vehicles that the car driver in front may be distracted by wailing or fighting small children.

    I think we are talking about signs on your personage not your vehicle. FWIW I once had this argument with my wife about car stickers saying 'baby on board' I thought they were perfectly reasonable in the sense that you cannot see a small child or baby in the back from a car behind and maybe it you do see people in the back seat it makes you back off slightly . I said anything to reduce tailgating is good but my wife said people were just showing off
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Please tell me you are mucking about and I have fallen for it

    Half and half...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    DavidL said:

    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.

    Nice people with basic manners are treated with suspicion.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    It's utterly absurd for people to get upset at Claridge's and not at the many, many more restaurants in London that don't allow children in after 8pm.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209

    FalseFlag said:

    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    The badge is there to try and nudge people into courteous behaviour.

    Well that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that you are browbeating people into changing their perfectly legal behaviour because of a unilateral decision you have made.

    Which is fine, as long as you recognise it as such.

    Really you're being ridiculous. The badge is not my idea. They weren't around when I was pregnant. There is no browbeating involved.

    But I was brought up - and have brought up my own children - to offer seats to the old, the pregnant and the disabled, indeed, anyone who needs it more than me. Legality is not the issue. Civilised behaviour is. It is uncivil IMO to occupy a seat when someone else needs it more than you.

    The grey area is the new trend for adults to give up their seat for small children, that I do not do. Helping with a pram on the stairs is the much neglected courtesy.
    Elliot Ness had this courtesy issue on the trail of Al Capone in the shoot out in Grand Central station New York (The Untouchables) .What a nice man that he still helped the lady down the stairs even if it meant risking getting shot by AL Capone cronies!!

    1930's you see , great they are coming back!!
    The scene was, of course, a direct lift from the Odessa Steps scene in Battleship Potemkin.
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    DavidL said:

    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.

    That's a lovely anecdote, David, and when my teenage sons have (all too infrequently) done something similar, I've felt the same way.


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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Farage takes the view that if certain sections of society are uncomfortable with something, then the rest of society needs to consider this and bend accordingly.

    My mother's generation seem to be pretty uncomfortable with a whole bunch of things, ranging from gay marriage to foreigners in general. Does this mean the rest of us have to consider these views, pack away all that libertarian stuff, and start voting UKIP?

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    DavidL said:

    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.

    My sister is pregnant at the moment and often gets on the train at a similar time to construction workers, most of whom are Eastern European. They apparently divide very clearly into two camps. Either they are old-fashioned in making a show of offering seats to all women, or they dart on the train before other people get off and push her out the way even when she is closer to a seat than they are.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    DavidL said:

    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.

    That's a lovely anecdote, David, and when my teenage sons have (all too infrequently) done something similar, I've felt the same way.


    Me too. I remember the first time my eldest son - without prompting - offered his seat.

    Good manners cost nothing and they make every day life a bit more bearable for us all.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,614

    DavidL said:


    Based on the current polling averages, with Con 31%, Lab 33%, LibDems 8% and UKIP 16%, Stephen Fisher's latest 2015 GE seats projection (showing changes over the past week) is as follows:

    Con ............... 292 (- 6 seats)
    Lab ............... 298 ( + 5 seats)
    Lib Dems ...... . 29 (+1 seat)
    Others ............ 31 ( unchanged)

    Total ............ 650 seats


    If the Tories are going to win they need to start lifting their share of the vote and soon. It does not look as if the Autumn Statement is going to achieve that.
    Not sure there are other vote-changing events expected before the election, apart from the Budget, which is best seen as part of the election campaign (which doesn't usually change very much). There's always black swans, but the timescale is getting short for them to turn up. I think the main factor that we might see change is UKIP's share - that's probably not yet as rock-solid as the Tory and Labour vote, if only because many not very political people always vote the same way without giving it much thought.

    A friend's niece told me recently that she always voted Tory, "don't know why really but the family do". Her level of engagement was illustrated by the fact that she said she'd discovered that there was more than one country in Africa - she'd always assumed it was just one. She has an expensive private education and currently runs a small business in Buckinghamshire. It's possible to find similar examples in every party - I have a supporter who is so xenophobic that he thinks it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain. I've asked him why he votes for me, and he says "No idea, just habit really". UKIP doesn't have many voters who are in the habit yet.

    Broadly agree Nick. I think the tories will recover some of the UKIP vote as might Labour but they are clearly going to get a much bigger share than ever before and they may well break through in a few seats. Or not.

    I think the Lib Dems will recover to some degree on the habit point, especially where they have a chance of winning or hold the seat. This might hurt Labour in terms of votes but not necessarily much in terms of seats.

    Clearly the SNP are going to do far better than in 2010. How much better is up for grabs but Labour should be worried.

    All in all this looks the most uncertain election I can recall. It may prove to be one where (unusually) the campaign makes a real difference. Labour will presumably hope not.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Plato said:

    Ah - now I get this discussion - it had me confused! Wearing a badge to tell everyone you're pregnant seems rather flashy to me.

    Given that, in the first trimester, pregnant women are often extremely tired and have balance issues, a badge is a good way of letting people know you probably need a seat without having to pick on a person to ask to give them yours. It seems like a good system in my opinion.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,385
    Patrick said:

    Presumably there comes a point in public service cuts where people start dying unnecessarly because of inadequate fire/paramedic etc supply?

    We are already well beyond that. There is an infinite demand for medical services. A taxpayer funded free-at-point-of-use system such as the NHS already makes very clear life and death decisions based on availability / worth. Remember all the arguments when Obamacare was introduced? People die because our NHS budget is X. Fact. But governments have to make this choice. At what point does spending more money to 'save' one more life become untenable? 'Unnecessarily' implies there is no risk / reward calculation. But there is. Is the argument for the fire service any different? I'm sure we all would like to know there is an on-duty fire engine within reasonable distance of us right now. Should we spend X to ensure there is one closer? Depends on the marginal value of a limited supply of money to make it so.

    All I'm saying is that any budget choice implies a cost / benefit decision. And it is not always to society's broader benefit to spend more money. Ask the Greek firemen.

    Best post on pb.com for a month.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,614

    DavidL said:

    When I was a teenage boy I was walking down the road with my Mum chatting. A woman, with a pram, lost her scarf on what was a windy day. I hared off after it (being considerably faster in those days), caught it and returned it to her. I thought no more about it but when my Mum was dying of cancer she volunteered to me that she was never prouder of me than she was that day.

    This may say a lot about my lack of achievements but good manners cost so little and bring their own rewards. I find some of this conversation really weird. Are there seriously people who would not give up their seat to a pregnant lady on the bus or the tube? How odd. How sad.

    maybe she wanted you to be an American Football player?
    Then she was disappointed. I don't think so.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Gadfly said:

    Farage takes the view that if certain sections of society are uncomfortable with something, then the rest of society needs to consider this and bend accordingly.

    My mother's generation seem to be pretty uncomfortable with a whole bunch of things, ranging from gay marriage to foreigners in general. Does this mean the rest of us have to consider these views, pack away all that libertarian stuff, and start voting UKIP?

    Every country in the world has certain manners that are commonly understood. Would you go to Thailand and say "they're just being irrational about the whole soles of your feet thing", before parking your legs up on the table? What Farage has said is a perfectly reasonable middle ground: women should be able to feed in public, but they can make sure they're doing it in a discreet way and flesh is covered up. It isn't hard to do. If it wasn't UKIP saying this, people wouldn't have an axe to grind and would understand it's a perfectly reasonable comment.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,385
    Socrates said:

    Plato said:

    Ah - now I get this discussion - it had me confused! Wearing a badge to tell everyone you're pregnant seems rather flashy to me.

    Given that, in the first trimester, pregnant women are often extremely tired and have balance issues, a badge is a good way of letting people know you probably need a seat without having to pick on a person to ask to give them yours. It seems like a good system in my opinion.

    I was told the original purpose was so that - in the event of an accident - then emergency workers would know to check there were no trapped children.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Bobajob_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    taffys said:

    If you're running an establishment you should have rules."

    Absolutely. IF you don't like it, don't go there. Millions of others will, if only to avoid, not your baby, but the stench of your self-righteousness.

    Of course. I must have forgotten: when I was feeding my child I was being self-righteous. Not just trying to be a good mother and feed my child in the most natural and easiest way possible.

    Far better for mothers to be locked away at home and keep their disgusting breasts and babies out of sight eh. After all we don't have pictures of breasts on show in newsagents and advertising hoardings. The very idea!
    OTT much? If you're going to a highly formal luxury environment like Claridges, make a one time exception and take a bottle (shock horror), do it under a loose jacket, do it elsewhere, or even just don't take your baby there -if I'm paying £50 for afternoon tea I expect total relaxation, and I don't want a crying baby at the next table. Sorry if that offends, but there it is.

    To be fair you hit on an interesting point: why not just ban children under 5 from the restaurant?
    Because it is good for children to be involved with families?

    That attitude is really going back to the 1930s

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    Gadfly said:

    Farage takes the view that if certain sections of society are uncomfortable with something, then the rest of society needs to consider this and bend accordingly.

    My mother's generation seem to be pretty uncomfortable with a whole bunch of things, ranging from gay marriage to foreigners in general. Does this mean the rest of us have to consider these views, pack away all that libertarian stuff, and start voting UKIP?

    A perfect example of what I was talking about earlier

    No, it means you should do what you think is right whilst being open minded enough to acknowledge that some people disagree with you without resorting to confrontation or "them and us" style thinking
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,355
    Having just been to the pub for lunch with a lady who was gratuitously and flagrantly breast-feeding, can I say that it is a hideous act that should be banned with immediate effect.

    (If only because it prevents me bottle-feeding the little mite, a wonderful experience).

    Farage was silly to use the word 'ostentatious', and it will do his standing amongst women no good at all. But he has a point: establishments should be free to ask women to breast-feed in a room. But that room should not just be a toilet or changing-room (given some of the changing rooms I've seen recently), and it should be publicised that 'public' feeding is not allowed, so women and families can make a choice not to attend that establishment.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    Presumably there comes a point in public service cuts where people start dying unnecessarly because of inadequate fire/paramedic etc supply?

    We are already well beyond that. There is an infinite demand for medical services. A taxpayer funded free-at-point-of-use system such as the NHS already makes very clear life and death decisions based on availability / worth. Remember all the arguments when Obamacare was introduced? People die because our NHS budget is X. Fact. But governments have to make this choice. At what point does spending more money to 'save' one more life become untenable? 'Unnecessarily' implies there is no risk / reward calculation. But there is. Is the argument for the fire service any different? I'm sure we all would like to know there is an on-duty fire engine within reasonable distance of us right now. Should we spend X to ensure there is one closer? Depends on the marginal value of a limited supply of money to make it so.

    All I'm saying is that any budget choice implies a cost / benefit decision. And it is not always to society's broader benefit to spend more money. Ask the Greek firemen.

    Best post on pb.com for a month.
    ...I thought the suggestion of fee-paying seats to ogle breastfeeding mothers was better...
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    talking of adult /kid manners , here is one for you:-

    I do the Saturday morning Parkruns and am in the err 45-50 age group. Kids also do the runs from about age 8 and naturally you want to encourage them and give them confidence in the worthwhile pursuit of fitness.

    However when I am approaching the finishing line I often hear the scampering patter of children's feet rapidly approaching me . Some days I turn evil inside and launch into a sprint to deny them an extra place and sometimes I am good (or knackered) and allow them to pass to gain a place.

    Over to you what shall I do tomorrow?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209
    Interesting piece about the current oil price and how it is likely to rise in 2015. (You may need to register to complete it).

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2730125-oil-markets-sentiment-and-lame-thinking-are-currently-in-the-drivers-seat

    It seems Saudi may be getting its way in squeezing out US marginal fields:

    "In fact, the rapid decline has already started. First, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday U.S. crude-oil supplies declined 3.7 million barrels on the week ended Nov. 28. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected crude inventories to increase by 380,000 barrels on the week. According also to today's news from Seeking Alpha, new permits, which outline what drilling rigs will be doing 60-90 days in the future, showed heavy declines for the first time this year across the top three U.S. onshore fields: the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford and Bakken shale. Specifically, there is an almost 40% decline in new well permits issued across the U.S. in November 2014, with only 4,520 new well permits approved last month, down from 7,227 in October 2014."
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    talking of adult /kid manners , here is one for you:-

    I do the Saturday morning Parkruns and am in the err 45-50 age group. Kids also do the runs from about age 8 and naturally you want to encourage them and give them confidence in the worthwhile pursuit of fitness.

    However when I am approaching the finishing line I often hear the scampering patter of children's feet rapidly approaching me . Some days I turn evil inside and launch into a sprint to deny them an extra place and sometimes I am good (or knackered) and allow them to pass to gain a place.

    Over to you what shall I do tomorrow?

    Not in Harrow Lodge Park in Hornchurch??
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    I've noticed that some men are quite keen to talk about equality when it comes to arguing about why they shouldn't have to offer their seat to a woman but less keen to rely on the same argument when it comes to equality of pay and promotion for women.

    Funny that.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,385
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    Presumably there comes a point in public service cuts where people start dying unnecessarly because of inadequate fire/paramedic etc supply?

    We are already well beyond that. There is an infinite demand for medical services. A taxpayer funded free-at-point-of-use system such as the NHS already makes very clear life and death decisions based on availability / worth. Remember all the arguments when Obamacare was introduced? People die because our NHS budget is X. Fact. But governments have to make this choice. At what point does spending more money to 'save' one more life become untenable? 'Unnecessarily' implies there is no risk / reward calculation. But there is. Is the argument for the fire service any different? I'm sure we all would like to know there is an on-duty fire engine within reasonable distance of us right now. Should we spend X to ensure there is one closer? Depends on the marginal value of a limited supply of money to make it so.

    All I'm saying is that any budget choice implies a cost / benefit decision. And it is not always to society's broader benefit to spend more money. Ask the Greek firemen.

    Best post on pb.com for a month.
    ...I thought the suggestion of fee-paying seats to ogle breastfeeding mothers was better...
    It was funnier, but probably somewhat less realistic :-)
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Socrates said:

    Gadfly said:

    Farage takes the view that if certain sections of society are uncomfortable with something, then the rest of society needs to consider this and bend accordingly.

    My mother's generation seem to be pretty uncomfortable with a whole bunch of things, ranging from gay marriage to foreigners in general. Does this mean the rest of us have to consider these views, pack away all that libertarian stuff, and start voting UKIP?

    Every country in the world has certain manners that are commonly understood. Would you go to Thailand and say "they're just being irrational about the whole soles of your feet thing", before parking your legs up on the table? What Farage has said is a perfectly reasonable middle ground: women should be able to feed in public, but they can make sure they're doing it in a discreet way and flesh is covered up. It isn't hard to do. If it wasn't UKIP saying this, people wouldn't have an axe to grind and would understand it's a perfectly reasonable comment.
    Farage didn't even go that far. He said he was ok with it. But if the restaurant wasn't they should be entitled to ask .. etc etc
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    Nobody puts a breastfeeding baby in the corner.

    I'll get my coat.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Socrates said:

    Gadfly said:

    Farage takes the view that if certain sections of society are uncomfortable with something, then the rest of society needs to consider this and bend accordingly.

    My mother's generation seem to be pretty uncomfortable with a whole bunch of things, ranging from gay marriage to foreigners in general. Does this mean the rest of us have to consider these views, pack away all that libertarian stuff, and start voting UKIP?

    Every country in the world has certain manners that are commonly understood.
    Manners do not replace the law. The Equality Act 2010 has made it illegal for anyone to ask a breastfeeding woman to leave a public place such as a cafe, shop or public transport.

    Surely asking her to cover up equates to the same thing?

    In my experience the baby's head provides more than adequate screening.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited December 2014
    DavidL said:

    Broadly agree Nick. I think the tories will recover some of the UKIP vote as might Labour but they are clearly going to get a much bigger share than ever before and they may well break through in a few seats. Or not.

    I think the Lib Dems will recover to some degree on the habit point, especially where they have a chance of winning or hold the seat. This might hurt Labour in terms of votes but not necessarily much in terms of seats.

    Clearly the SNP are going to do far better than in 2010. How much better is up for grabs but Labour should be worried.

    All in all this looks the most uncertain election I can recall. It may prove to be one where (unusually) the campaign makes a real difference. Labour will presumably hope not.

    In the absence of "events", surely the most likely thing is that current trends will continue?

    Labour/LD will continue to decline. Greens/UKIP will continue to grow. Tories will stagnate.

    http://www.mediafire.com/view/l8rd7atd257yprk/YouGov polls 12 months to 30 November inc Green 2014.jpg
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Based on the current polling averages, with Con 31%, Lab 33%, LibDems 8% and UKIP 16%, Stephen Fisher's latest 2015 GE seats projection (showing changes over the past week) is as follows:

    Con ............... 292 (- 6 seats)
    Lab ............... 298 ( + 5 seats)
    Lib Dems ...... . 29 (+1 seat)
    Others ............ 31 ( unchanged)

    Total ............ 650 seats


    If the Tories are going to win they need to start lifting their share of the vote and soon. It does not look as if the Autumn Statement is going to achieve that.
    Not sure there are other vote-changing events expected before the election, apart from the Budget, which is best seen as part of the election campaign (which doesn't usually change very much). There's always black swans, but the timescale is getting short for them to turn up. I think the main factor that we might see change is UKIP's share - that's probably not yet as rock-solid as the Tory and Labour vote, if only because many not very political people always vote the same way without giving it much thought.

    A friend's niece told me recently that she always voted Tory, "don't know why really but the family do". Her level of engagement was illustrated by the fact that she said she'd discovered that there was more than one country in Africa - she'd always assumed it was just one. She has an expensive private education and currently runs a small business in Buckinghamshire. It's possible to find similar examples in every party - I have a supporter who is so xenophobic that he thinks it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain. I've asked him why he votes for me, and he says "No idea, just habit really". UKIP doesn't have many voters who are in the habit yet.

    Broadly agree Nick. I think the tories will recover some of the UKIP vote as might Labour but they are clearly going to get a much bigger share than ever before and they may well break through in a few seats. Or not.

    I think the Lib Dems will recover to some degree on the habit point, especially where they have a chance of winning or hold the seat. This might hurt Labour in terms of votes but not necessarily much in terms of seats.

    Clearly the SNP are going to do far better than in 2010. How much better is up for grabs but Labour should be worried.

    All in all this looks the most uncertain election I can recall. It may prove to be one where (unusually) the campaign makes a real difference. Labour will presumably hope not.
    I think it is a fair position to take that the campaign will be what returns David Cameron to Downing Street.

    From what we have seen in recent weeks, Labour should be pooping themselves.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Having just been to the pub for lunch with a lady who was gratuitously and flagrantly breast-feeding, can I say that it is a hideous act that should be banned with immediate effect.

    (If only because it prevents me bottle-feeding the little mite, a wonderful experience).

    Farage was silly to use the word 'ostentatious', and it will do his standing amongst women no good at all. But he has a point: establishments should be free to ask women to breast-feed in a room. But that room should not just be a toilet or changing-room (given some of the changing rooms I've seen recently), and it should be publicised that 'public' feeding is not allowed, so women and families can make a choice not to attend that establishment.

    Are you now a dad JJ? And if so many congratulations!

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    isam said:

    talking of adult /kid manners , here is one for you:-

    I do the Saturday morning Parkruns and am in the err 45-50 age group. Kids also do the runs from about age 8 and naturally you want to encourage them and give them confidence in the worthwhile pursuit of fitness.

    However when I am approaching the finishing line I often hear the scampering patter of children's feet rapidly approaching me . Some days I turn evil inside and launch into a sprint to deny them an extra place and sometimes I am good (or knackered) and allow them to pass to gain a place.

    Over to you what shall I do tomorrow?

    Not in Harrow Lodge Park in Hornchurch??
    no in Rushcliffe usually -although I may try Colwick Park tomorrow (less women breastfeeding by the side of the paths imo)
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited December 2014
    Funny that.

    I doubt very much whether you will find anyone who posts on here who does not believe in equal pay.

    I know I do. I've a daughter.

    But lets call a spade a spade. Equal pay plus 5 years out of your career to have kids and the massive scheduling arguments with lithuanian nannies and state nurseries that accompany them is not equal treatment.

    That is special treatment.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Gadfly said:

    Socrates said:

    Gadfly said:

    Farage takes the view that if certain sections of society are uncomfortable with something, then the rest of society needs to consider this and bend accordingly.

    My mother's generation seem to be pretty uncomfortable with a whole bunch of things, ranging from gay marriage to foreigners in general. Does this mean the rest of us have to consider these views, pack away all that libertarian stuff, and start voting UKIP?

    Every country in the world has certain manners that are commonly understood.
    Manners do not replace the law. The Equality Act 2010 has made it illegal for anyone to ask a breastfeeding woman to leave a public place such as a cafe, shop or public transport.

    Surely asking her to cover up equates to the same thing?

    In my experience the baby's head provides more than adequate screening.
    No, covering up, which is something easy to do that most breastfeeding women do anyway, and being forced to stop your meal/purchase/commute etc are in no way the same thing.
This discussion has been closed.