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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive
One of the remarkable features of the past four and a half of coalition is that the party that appears to have suffered so much, the Lib Dems, have not panicked and appear to just shrug off one miserable national poll rating after another.
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As a sometime waverer I would say personally there was never a time when I was "Don't know", in a much as I always knew who I planned to vote for, it might just have changed from time to time, and the polling question usually says "if there was an election tomorrow", not "when the election is held on May 8th"
Looking at the last ICM, 67% of the DKs voted for someone in 2010 (CON: 16% LAB:21% LD:30%), is the high level of DK for former LD voters an indication of disenchantment with their party? Or does it suggest that the LDs attract a high level of "uncommited" voters who in effect drift into the polling booth and select the LDs because they are the "Mateus Rose" party (not red and not white, not sweet and not dry, not still and not sparkling).
Most polls seem to discount DKs when calculating VI, since this segment seems to represent about a quarter of voters at the moment, they have the potential to completely swamp the microscopic differences between parties, and it might be useful to more fully consider what sort of voter these people really are. Does any of the pollster assign a DK to their 2010 vote with or without some sort of weighting ?
LD 2010VI lose 20% to Green
Scottish sub-sample: SNP 50% of VI
Huppert not yet odds on for Cambridge - free money I tells ya.
The effect may well be still more marked when individual candidates are explicitly named.
Con 31, Lab 32, LD 7, UKIP 15 Green 8
In the third column the Lib Dems are scoring 36% but what did they score in these seats at the last election? Even with this level of improvement in these particular seats I would expect there to be a swing against the Lib Dems sufficient to create some casualties.
In Scotland, a traditional source of strength, the situation is even worse and I still do not believe that the Lib Dems will hold onto any seats south of Inverness. If I am right that will be 7 or 8 losses (depending on Danny and maybe Thurso) there alone.
The Cleggasm saw the Lib Dems pick up a lot of useless votes, mainly from disillusioned Labour supporters, and lose seats. With a more focussed vote they will greatly exceed their UNS score but they are still going to take a significant hit.
Or it it just valid for dying Parties?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html
Simon Hughes is the only survivor in Labour facing seats (by 1%).
The Tories take Berwick, Solihull and Portsmouth S plus a raft of SW seats.
Half a dozen or so Lib dem "holds" are on margins of 5 or less.
A terrible moraity tale for the sort of society America has always been. He was 42 years old with two children and reduced to selling single cigarettes on the Street. Why five policemen decided to fell this man is the sreal tory and tells a lot about how they treat their underclass.
While there are polling examples of a change in behaviour in a 2 stage question, the 2014 local election results did not show a special effect for LD held parliamentary seats.
"...on average the drop in the Lib-Dem vote in wards located in the constituency of an incumbent Lib-Dem MP was, at 13 points, much the same as elsewhere."
http://www.ippr.org/juncture/messages-from-the-voters-the-2014-local-and-european-elections
No doubt the BBC, for example, will want to refer to the IFS report as supporting their own analysis (using a generous word): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/autumn-statement/11273458/Colossal-cuts-needed-after-General-Election-warns-IFS.html
The restraint (overall spending has still risen) in spending in this Parliament has not closed half the deficit and the economy is clearly not capable of generating the level of taxes once assumed. The assumptions in Osborne's figures would indeed change the nature and role of the State in a fundamental way if fully implemented. Basically our State would become a Health and Pension provider with a few incidental add ons.
Is this what people want or are they willing to pay more in taxes to maintain the sort of welfare state we have been used to? This is the real question at the next election but as usual Labour have nothing to say on the subject. The Lib Dems, interestingly, do and I expect Danny Alexander to have a bit of a star role in the next campaign as the media desperately search for some intelligent debate.
If on the other hand they are actually a pissed off "former" voter for the 2010 party which is wavering toward another party, for example right-wing Tories and UKIP, putting them back to their 2010 VI seems unrealistic, similarly is DK is actually code for "cant actually be bothered to vote this year".
That fact that the polls reveal we actually have no idea how almost a third of the electorate plan to vote makes quibbling over a couple of percent here or there seem a little futile ;-)
I wonder if the two words 'Lord' and 'Ashcroft' will still be mentioned on here after May 7th.
"The Mail and Telegraph are full of stuff about Lefty BBC "asst political editor" journo Norman Smith and his biased reporting of the budget. Frankly one thinks that's par for the course. He was involved in a row at no 10 last yr methinks."
Back to the ugly days of Thatcher. Bully the news channels...if you're not with us you're against us. It's as much a reason why there is still such a residual loathing of the Tory Party and their lackeys in the right wing press as there always was.
It's also a reason why there will always be a large tactical vote against the Tories whoever they are facing. Right wing bullies have never been appealing in the UK
Another traitorous pig-dog; this one who had to resign following an expenses scandal.
What price the new politics?
I don't think that that single made Doc Cox a millionaire.
Mr. L, I agree, it would be most useful to see what the polling was for the 2010 election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30336569
The group includes Audi, which was rumoured to be considering an entry into F1 in a few years, with Ross Brawn as team principal.
Another inconvenient fact that Roger likes to ignore when judging others moral rectitude.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-30340558
Tsk ....
Indeed why bother with a general election at all .... apart of course with providing OGH with a facility for topping up his wine cellar and subscription to the Belgravia Hair Center.
Mercedes Benz should be a wholly owned subsidiary of Alvis - the three pointed star as part of the red triangle !!
Huzzah for "Our Viscount"
"... party attributes are more important than policy issues or personalities. Sharing voters’ values (green, top centre) and being on their side (light blue, top left) is more salient than being more trusted on the NHS (pink, bottom left), education (brown, bottom left) or even job creation (red, centre), or having the best candidate for Prime Minister (blue, bottom right), or having the best economic team (grey, bottom right)."
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/12/lord-ashcroft-the-importance-of-being-salient.html
It will no doubt be 45 laps - one for each referendum planned.
And Farage??
Should be a wheeze !!
Titters from Mrs JackW stage left ....
There's no tool like an old tool ....
For once I agree with the front page of The Sun (68% say he is a hypocrite and 64% say he's not funny).
BBC baiting only appeals to the very small Tory hardcore. And it exposes the glaring weaknesses in the Autumn Statement.
Having discredited Tory tabloids screaming your case doesn't help either.
On a related matter I have resolved the general election debates appearance problem.
3 UK wide debates plus Welsh, Ulster and Scottish leaders debates.
Of the 3 UK debates the first would be between Farage, Galloway and Lucas and the second and third debates between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg.
Sorted.
"In the Telegraph, BBC correspondent Norman Smith's likening of the spending cuts required to meet Mr Osborne's aims to George Orwell's depression-era book The Road to Wigan Pier "smacks of partisanship" and is "preposterous".
If the Telegraph writers put down their champagne flutes got off their fat backsides and headed to one of the many soup kitchens just accross the river from where they work they might stop attacking the messenger and at the same time stop being a disgrace to their profession.
Mr. H, it'd be interesting to know whether he believes his own bullshit. I would guess not.
Incidentally, I’d take issue with HH’s comment yesterday that Thurrock was a typical Essex council with a Tory majority. Traditionally it was solid Old Labour, which it’s a Unitary Authority. Labour Thurrock didn’t want to be controlled by Tory Essex!
You have to have some sympathy? The IFS release a statement, and bloody left wing media reports on it as news? What is the country coming to?
Mr. Angry,
of Tonbridge Wells
But I do have a reservation about prompting for localness. If you prompt for any factor, it hints to the voter that when he thinks about that factor, maybe he'd like to think again about his vote. If you imagine saying "Now, thinking about what the parties have said on the NHS/the deficit/immigration, who would you vote for?" you can imagine varying results. Isn't it possible that many people think about all kinds of things when they vote, and not especially about the constituency and candidates?
This is arguing against my interest a bit, since I'd quite like Broxtowe voters to make a personal choice. Some do, but maybe not as many as prompting for it implies. The same applies, incidentally, when polls do a second VI question with leader names - again, it nudges the voter to have a think whether the leaders might make them vote differently, when he's probably factored that in to the extent that he wants to already.
Incidentally, there was some YG polling last night on how people liked the Budget (everyone thought the stamp duty changes were a good idea, as I do myself, though not necessarily a vote-changing one). They don't seem to be in the YG report this morning. Does anyone have a link to them, and were they a separate poll?
And happy birthday fitalass. Enjoy the under-50 category for another year!
You are just hypocrite, plain and simple.. in the same way you live a very comfortable life whilst preaching to others about hardship. and soup kitchens.... in fact you are not far away from that nasty piece of work Russell Brand.
The slide in circulation hurts Tories the most.
Conservatives need to realise that there will never be an impartial BBC. The institution is ingrained with a left-wing mindset to its core, and, by nature of being a public sector media organisation, always will be. It's about time it was forced to raise its own money, rather than be reliant on a tax for owning a television. It's defenders say that the licence fee is clearly well worth what you get in return, so let them prove that by giving people the choice.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/tax-spending/is-this-a-fiddle-in-the-autumn-statement/
Firstly it is not overall public spending that is being talked about - only DEL. The 21% down to 12% figure excludes eg Welfare - the biggest element of our welfare state.
Secondly, it refers only to CENTRAL spending. As we devolve spending from the Treasury to counties, Scotland/Wales etc the amount of spending by No11 drops. But overall public spending may or may not.
In other words we need to see the detail or it's just a bullshit scare story.
Deviation from the official government line is treason and must be eliminated.
It does make the reporting look as convincing as the respect Miliband feels as a white van zooms by.