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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : December 4th 2
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : December 4th 2014
Netherfield on Mansfield (Mansfield Independent Forum defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 26, Mansfield Independents 10 (Labour majority of 16)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Mansfield Independents 444 (51%), Labour 401 (46%), Liberal Democrats 34 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Karen Seymour (TUSC), Sid Walker (UKIP), Sarah Wright (Lab)
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Mr. Eagles, even under Alexander and Ancient Rome cavalry had their own separate ranks (I forget the details, but the Romans did have decurions and ala (and turma, I think)).
In the back of the TA Dodge book on Alexander I believe there's an appendix with a full list of ranks. [I was going to write a military fantasy based on the Macedonian system].
And some of the Nats were/are MPs and MSPs concurrently.
I was thinking that it might be that Cavalrymen were Preening Egotists.
One of the reasons why the Tory core is evaporating.
"Look at that horse's arse"
"But it's a nice horse he's sitting on"
What I do find unfair is ringfencing, non-frontline NHS spending, overseas aid and pensioners' benefits like free TV licenses should face the same cuts as every other department
Would be a good way of trimming their overall spend.
1) 1.5 million of the total 4.6 million households in receipt of tax credits do not have any adult in paid employment.
2) many other recipients of in-work tax credits (0.9 million of the 3.1 million working) work less than 30 hours per week - so would be ineligible if single as they fail to meet the minimum hours requirement;
That means 2.4 million of 4.6 million of tax credit recipients- the majority (largely) - are indeed families, and that's without dissecting the circumstances of the remaining 2.2 million, many of whom will be families.
The ones I see in the course of my work are almost always families. The payouts are often very substantial. Removing entitlements to tax credits and housing benefits on the basis of insufficient Uk residence would make it financially difficult for these people to live here.
Enjoyed it muchly
Although I'd have cut further and faster, and not been so populist with the tax strikes at upper earners and lowered the top rate to 40p in one swoop, and cut IHT, my beef is not with Osborne.
He is shrinking the size of the state, balancing the book, reforming stamp duty, pensions, higher rate tax, fuel duty and income tax thresholds. He is also prioritising investment in science, infrastructure and trying to kick-start the North.
The silly things are the wrecking of the justice and defence budgets. Also stupidly making international aid commitment, and NHS real-terms increases, sacrosanct.
I detect much more of Cameron in the latter than Osborne. But I also think Osborne is too much of a social liberal to do anything about immigration, and he's not a BOO'er. But if he was, and adressed all the above, I would vote Tory again.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-two-bad-polls-away-from-crisis-1.2025614
" “We need a John Redwood, ” said one deputy in reference to the Tory frontbencher who mounted an ultimately doomed leadership challenge to John Major in 1995.
One Fine Gael minister put it: “This is a crisis of party politics.” "
A warning on those putting all the eggs in one basket.
1) 1.5 million of the total 4.6 million households in receipt of tax credits do not have any adult in paid employment.
2) many other recipients of in-work tax credits (0.9 million of the 3.1 million working) work less than 30 hours per week - so would be ineligible if single as they fail to meet the minimum hours requirement;
That means 2.4 million of 4.6 million of tax credit recipients- the majority (largely) - are indeed families, and that's without dissecting the circumstances of the remaining 2.2 million, many of whom will be families.
The ones I see in the course of my work are almost always families. The payouts are often very substantial. Removing entitlements to tax credits and housing benefits on the basis of insufficient Uk residence would make it financially difficult for these people to live here.
The government tables disagree with you
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children
Hertsmere I also agree, the BBC could easily afford it
We weren't really trying/It's only a by election/We only lost by xxxx amount/we'll win it next time
all 4?
Top spot by @kiranstacey - GNI revision adds £1bn to our foreign aid bill http://on.ft.com/1s0jYGG
Mansfield and Rossendale are the open races tonight.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-childrenIn what way? Single people get tax credits but they (usually) have to work 30 hours a week and earn very little to qualify. For families with children, the hours you have to work are less (I think it's 24 between you), the income higher, and of course as well as Working Tax Credits you get Child Tax Credits, and tax credits for childcare. So I think Chestnut is right. it is easier to qualify for TCs as a family, and you are likely to get paid a lot more as well.
Strong emperors like Trajan, Aurelian and Basil could buck the trend. Average ones presided over slow decline, and atrocious ones like the Angeli, Commodus and Honorius accelerated it drastically.
I wonder whether those who followed Alexander or Hannibal ever complained about how crap their leaders were, and wished for the good old days when Philip or Hamilcar were in charge.
We face some interesting strategic problems. Our debt's enormous, the deficit is enormous, interest payments are mounting and we're shackled to a corpse called the eurozone. Our constitutional position both domestically and overseas is unsustainable, liberties are being curtailed, our demographic forecasts are appalling and there is a substantial lack of faith in our political class.
On the other hand, we retain control of our monetary policy (which should be a statement of the obvious, but is a distinct advantage over the cabal of madness called the eurozone), growth is better here than elsewhere by a large margin, unemployment is low and inflation is low.
We may have a window of opportunity to position ourselves better.
But then, the Romans did in the third century, when some muppet caught stealing money killed Aurelian and prevented him putting the Empire on a permanently sound footing. [If he hadn't, it's possible it would still be here today. And if that sounds mad, consider the Crisis of the Third Century deepened after his death despite the good work of Probus et al. and the Empire lasted until the mid-15th century].
"Largely" = mostly, to great extent.
Putting up a table of how the means test functions doesn't equate to the number of claimants.
@TSE
"Mr Llama, you're a chap well versed in military matters, can I pick your brain on a matter.
Why are the sub-ordinate units of a Cavalry Regiment known as Squadrons, and not Battalions like the rest of the Army.
Squadrons are what one associates with the RAF and not the regular army."
The designation of a sub-unit as a Squadron is originally a naval term. One talked about the West Indies squadron, for example, meaning a group of ships under a commander but too small to call a fleet.
A cavalry regiment is about the same size as an army battalion and its squadrons are therefore roughly equivalent to an army company. Why they are termed squadrons rather than companies I don't know, but it has been that way for a couple of hundred years at least, which means that it is good enough. Cavalry squadrons are divided into troops rather than the platoons one finds in the infantry. The Royal Marines also use the term Troop but for formations of company and not platoon size.
Of course the army is not without its anomalies. A regiment may have one or several battalions, but a multi-battalion regiment will almost never fight as a regiment (unlike the practice in, for example, the US army). The Royal Regiment of Artillery is, of course, not a regiment at all; it is a corps and is made up of numerous regiments. On the other hand the old Royal Rifle Corps was never a corps but only a regiment, but the Royal Tank Regiment is a corps (the RTR exists only to provide armoured jobs for officers who aren't "of the right stuff" for cavalry regiments).
The RAF, or Crab Air as they are not quite affectionately known*, grew out of the old Royal Flying Corps and the Royal Naval Air Service. I expect that they chose the term squadron for their standard unit because it was too small (12 aircraft) to be a regiment but too big to be a company, plus they had delusions of grandeur (knights of the sky and all that stuff). Frankly who cares what the Crabs think or do - they haven't shot down an enemy aeroplane since 1945 and their primary objective is to preserve the RAF and to hell with the County's defence needs. They couldn't even close the runway at Port Stanley.
*In recent years members of the RAF have become known as "Kevins", this is not a practice I support.
Maybe I am seeing things, but looks to me as though table 2 has a column titled
"Single, 16 or over & work 16-29 hours a week"
Then shows how much you are entitled to in tax credits
@chestnut said
"many other recipients of in-work tax credits (0.9 million of the 3.1 million working) work less than 30 hours per week - so would be ineligible if single as they fail to meet the minimum hours requirement;"
Was recently IMAX'd
There is a column on the link I provided showing the amount that single people working less than 30 hours can claim. You ay they are "ineligible"
So either you, or the government tables are wrong, that's all I am saying
Could be them
Only applies to disabled workers.
The mantra of the British Army has always been
1) Never march on Moscow
2) Never get involved in the Balkans
3) Never trust the RAF
Wise words
It only relates to disabled workers.
*Unless it's colonial. Retaking Burma, and defeating communists in Malaysia are ok.
Has today's James Bond news met with your approval?
Although your original point was that single people didn't claim them, which was wrong
"What about families, you know, the ones who actually claim tax credits" implied that single people didn't/couldn't
Who is this Waltz fellow?
Avengers, Minions, James Bond, Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Ant Man, Jupiter Ascending, Terminator, Pitch Perfect 2 (Guilty Pleasure I know)
A Labour Party twitter account has accused UKIP of being 'full of money-grabbing Jews' in a
disgraceful attack on UKIP candidate Shneur Odze this evening.
http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/london-labour-ukip-full-of-money.html
ps recommend Paddington, Definitely an adult film.
The etymology of 'squadron' is Italian meaning 'square'. From the 16th centuary.
We can imagine squares of troops - pikemen etc. So it may be that for tightly packed masses of cavalry it was maintained. One can perhaps imagine early galleons grouped tightly together.
'regiment' from Latin and old French, really means to rule or be ordered and in fact in military use it possibly comes after the term squadron in the sense of 'ordered systematically'
That's accurate.
I was going to say it was probably a fake like the @UKIPNorthLondon @UKIPEastLondon ones.. are we sure the "apology" isn't a double bluff?
I'd bet 1/2 it isn't a real Labour account, and that its the same person doing the fake UKIP ones
Nothing you have said has changed my view
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11273244/Ukip-warns-supporters-about-fake-town-impersonating-them-on-Twitter.html
Ukip failed to see the funny side of a parody account about a fake town impersonating them on Twitter.
MEP David Coburn was eager to ensure his followers weren’t fooled by the @Trumpton_Ukip account and urged his followers to block or report it.
A spate of fake Ukip Twitter accounts have emerged this week, with the Eurosceptic party claiming to be the victim of “a dirty tricks campaign”.
Mr Coburn has clearly never watched popular children’s TV show Trumpton, which was first aired on the BBC in the 1960s.
UKIP Trumpton say its number of followers has quadrupled since Mr Coburn’s tweet.
I thought RAF pilots flew from the carriers.
We have Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Iron Man and now Ant Man?
What's next, Bicycle Repair Man?
I think I'll stick to TV, although the return of Blofeld is something to look at I'm sure they will massacre the film.
Check out my candidates' spreadsheet for details.
Most people under 35 would never have heard of Trumpton the show, and could easily have thought it was a legit UKIP account
If someone set up a spoof account with your "real" name on it, a picture of you, and a fictional town as the address would you be happy for it to say racist and homophobic things unchallenged?
In Korea a couple of RAF pilots did shoot down enemy aeroplanes but those pilots were on exchange to the USA and were flying American aircraft under American direction. There were British aerial victories in Korea but again they were won by RN Pilots flying from carriers.
Really and truly the RAF have not shot down an enemy aeroplane since 1945.
"A vile attack on Shneur, a top UKIPer I've met."
Just what UKIP need. A modern man
http://www.timesofisrael.com/orthodox-politician-draws-ire-for-refusal-to-shake-womens-hands/
"Take my mother in Law.. I wish some c*nt would.." boom boom
"I loved Paddington, seen it three times already."
An anti UKIP film for youngsters (and the most surreal London I've ever seen in a film)
Former Whip admitted would help cover up alleged abuse “involving small boys” All parties must now open up Whip files http://labourclp50.nationbuilder.com/john_mann_mp_calls_on_party_leaders_to_open_up_whip_archives …
As I said 2 days ago, the handful of Tory MPs who have never been described as "top", must feel very left out.
The ones I see in the course of my work are almost always families. The payouts are often very substantial. Removing entitlements to tax credits and housing benefits on the basis of insufficient Uk residence would make it financially difficult for these people to live here.
Isn't that the whole idea? By denying recent immigrants tax credits and housing benefit they cannot afford to live here.
"Maybe we can have two mins of hate for UKIP in the Trojan Horse schools popping up in East London and Birmingham?"
I'm being serious. There's no doubt at all that the film's political target was UKIP. One could say they laid it on with a trowel but as I was sympathetic to the message i didn't mind
@WikiGuido: "64% say he's not funny" wounder RT @suttonnick: Friday's Sun front page:
Brand - The Nation Speaks
#bbcpapers http://t.co/Jgk6hYRaoJ
That's because the number of people who think he's doing a bad job as Chancellor has gone up from 41 to 44 per cent.
The number who think he's doing a good job remains unchanged at 33 per cent.
However, his lead over Ed Balls on who would make the best Chancellor has gone up from 13 to 15 points.
In another boost for Mr Osborne, 74 per cent of voters think his Stamp Duty shake-up if a good idea, compared to just 7 per cent who don't.
Any documents created during Government should be available to the public after 30 years.
Tim Fortescue was a Tory Government whip in the 1970-1974 Heath Government.