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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote
Following the Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam poll last week which had the LD leader with a lead of just 3% over LAB there’s a new analysis of student voting patterns by Oxford’s Stephen Fisher suggesting that Nick Clegg and other Lib Dems could be vulnerable in seats where there are a lot of students on the register.
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Good luck with that as the newspapers, the courts and other European Leaders slowly pick apart his speech over the next few weeks. The Commission seems intent on challenging most of the significant bits of his speech in the ECJ, which will probably provide a stream of adverse judgements for the media to hang their stories on. It will also make it very obvious that his speech will require a lot of treaty changes to implement, which people like Komorowski have already said they will oppose.
"Democracy can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." as Europe will prove over the next few years.
Osborne's plans go backwards - yet another year before he removes the deficit, now 2018-9.
When will he go ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11264271/Osbornes-surplus-will-be-year-late-warns-EY.html
There's more chance that they'll abstain from unbridled sex, drugs, booze and Bargain Hunt for the term than there is of Clegg losing the seat.
South Yorkshire Tories could be responsible for unseating both Clegg and Miliband next May if we vote tactically.
As Uncle Ben said, with great power comes great responsibility.
Being part of a Coalition that has provided stable government and ensured the demise of Gordon Brown and all his works has been a triumph for sanity.
Huzzah for the Coalition.
Broomhill is where the most of Uni Halls of residence are for students.
Compared with Healey, Osborne is a softie. The OBR expects him to have cut spending by just 2.2pc by 2014-15, an astonishingly slow four-year reduction in total spending only made possible by anaesthetised bond markets. Healey, not Osborne, was the real axeman."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/spending-review/10141596/George-Osbornes-Spending-Review-is-based-on-already-obsolete-assumptions-about-the-world-economy.html
The student population has generations that are far faster than the population as a whole. This generation have never known anything other than £9K fees. It was like that when they were completing their exams at school and planning for university and has been like that throughout their studies.
They may not like the debt they are being forced to take on, they may not approve of those who put the increase through but it is ancient history to them. Like the fact that Thatcher can still motivate some more than 20 years after she lost power there will be some whose vote is influenced by all this but they will be a small percentage of the student body.
I have never postal voted, does the form even include identifying marks that could be used to check for fraud, that would rather seem to go against secret balloting.
This http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26520836 article certainly shows there are some serious concerns about rigging
Doing the right thing is not very popular.
On the other hand he also said "I wouldn't object strongly to leaving the EU. The advantages of being members of the union are not obvious. The disadvantages are very obvious. I can see the case for leaving – the case for leaving is stronger than for staying in" so he has his better days ;-)
"Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s record to date?" +30% / -55%
"Do you think this coalition government is good or bad for people like you?" +21% / -51%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11264024/Nearly-1m-more-middle-earners-to-be-dragged-into-40p-tax-band-despite-David-Camerons-conference-pledge.html
"Nearly one million more people will be paying the higher rate of income tax even if the Tories raise the 40p tax threshold to £50,000 by 2020, the Treasury has admitted.
The forecast from HM Revenue and Customs shows 4.6 million people currently paying income tax at the 40 per cent rate, which starts at £41,900 a year.
However, even if the threshold is raised to £50,000 a year, 5.5 million people will still be paying income tax at 40 per cent — 900,000 more than do at present. "
So his conference pledge to saying he was going to increase the threshold to £50k because "40p rate was “only supposed to be paid by the most well-off people” yet teachers and police officers were being “dragged into it”." actually is worse than just indexing it by inflation, and more teachers and police officers will be paying 40% rather than less.
http://news.sky.com/story/1383350/britains-most-popular-boys-name-mohammed
Discussion of Healey's '76 crisis budget cuts got me thinking. What did he actually cut?
A paper by Policy Exchange provides a list.
It includes:
Education (including school buildings).
House building
Overseas aid
Defence
Food subsidies (presumably some kind of hang-over from rationing (?)
Various regional cash and support transfer schemes (echoes here of all this talk of reviving a Northern power house).
For me what stands out is that schools education got hit. To the tune of £20m (1976 figures).
The paper is at: http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/images/publications/controlling spending and government deficits - nov 09.pdf
Postal votes also contain a signed form from the voter, which is supposed to be outside the envelope containing the actual ballot, so you can check whether the vote sent in really came from the person in question, and whether that person was supposed to be voting, in a separate process that doesn't allow you to find out who they voted for.
In Hallam constituency there will be some privately renting students in Crookes ward and two Halls of Residence in Fulwood ward.
Sheffield Hallam might have more university employees than university students.
I'm pretty sure that the Lib Dem problem is Clegg and while he stays around all those left of centre tactical voters who at one time tactically voted for him wouldn't do so any more
So if the voters approve of the measures, they have to trust that he means it, that it is possible, and that he will succeed, with the experience of his immigration numbers guarantee to depend upon.
Labour's measures may be similar but they have even a bigger mountain to climb for credibility.
The LDs have cornered the market in immigration-friendly voters and that will become their selling point. It may save a few deposits.
I wouldn't be swayed too much by Lordy's polls, my feeling from the East Midland polls produced is some will be quite a way off reality. The Labour vote looks inflated in most of them.
Incidentally cracking photoshop job in today's Guardian
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/membership-eb-images/13848454099/940.jpg
There are of course exceptions - both Labour and Tories have very dedicated teams of students touring the marginals. But they're the exception rather than the rule. (I've not seen a LibDem student team in action for years, or ever met a student Kipper, though presumably they exist.)
I was surprised when Clegg only had a narrow lead (about 3 points, I think) in some constituency polling revealed recently. I still think he'll hold on, but it may be close.
Remember prior to the election Labour promised to do whatever the Browne review suggested, post election they reneged partly to shaft Clegg.
Which annoyed a lot of the Uni staff, most of whom are Labour inclined.
Was it Labour or the Tories?
Clue: it isn't the Tories.
The Tory claim on economic credibility is lunacy - it attempts to invert reality.
......the problems with Nick Clegg....
It's long been an enigma how this vote magnet could have turned into a vote repeller in two easy stages. I can still remember the original and it hasn't changed much.
As the election approaches its obvious that a lot of party money will research why their support has tanked. I doubt the biggest reason is their connection with the Tories. Everyone knows they had no choice and anyway if it was true why aren't they attracting centre/centre right tactical voters?
No I suspect the research will find the problem is Clegg himself. He's not centre left or cente right but a TORY. A nouveau Tory rather in the mould of Osborne but without the latters personal achievements. Infact exactly the kind of Tory who is unpalatable to anyone other than a Tory.
I notice Tim Farron has resigned as party chairman. It's got to make sense to ditch Clegg now
Without looking up the numbers so I might be slightly out - a few billion is now 'slightly out'.
In 2013/14 the deficit was £97bn.
After 7 months of 2014/15 its heading for about £102bn.
Osborne's deficit prediction for 2014/15 in his 2014 Budget was £82bn.
Osborne's deficit prediction for 2014/15 in his 2010 Budget was £37bn.
'Are things turning nasty in Thurrock?
Politics is getting increasingly ugly. One example is a Tory leaflet in Thurrock, Essex, that calls Tim Aker, Ukip’s candidate there, ‘Timür Aker’ in what, to me, seems a clear attempt to remind voters of his Turkish roots.
This appears to be a cheap tactic, seeing as Aker is known by all – and refers to himself – as Tim. It seems clear what these Tories were trying to do, and it is worthy of nothing but contempt. The Tories won’t beat Ukip – locally or nationally – by diving headfirst into the gutter'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2854566/Silence-Dave-biggest-immigration-gamble-yet.html
Tim has had his 4 years and now it is time for Baroness Brinton (an ex Cambridge college burser) who fought Watford in 2005 & 2010.
30/11/2014 14:42
Well said @JGForsyth. Tory leaflet attack on @Tim_Aker indefensible dailymail.co.uk/debate/article… pic.twitter.com/SseW6xDq87
"Just anecdotal based evidence on our road......."
I think you've just pushed the taxi drivers and hairdressers off the top of the anecdotal league table
Reality fast catching up with the fairyland fantasists.
Osborne makes one last pitch to voters to accept his Disney-like dreamscape rather than what they see on the 10 o'clock news.
Four polls out today!
#imagineitwereukip #nicknick
Jackie Doyle-Price (@JackieDP)
29/11/2014 23:14
Great show by @JimDOfficial no thanks to the Dartford crossing. A crusader against political correctness, I salute you
To make it sound less fuzzy wuzzy of courses.
"Roger, the party president is an elected post with a maximum 4 year holding period"
Thanks for that. But I wonder why he was trawling the studios yesterday putting the boot into his coalition partners when he could have confined himself to wishing his successor every success?
I suppose he could have slashed all borrowing, spending etc etc on day 1 which is what you have demanded over the years he does NOT do. No more than that, you have constantly demanded spending is increased dramatically hence more borrowing higher interest costings and a further fall into the economic maelstrom that the Labour Party created initially in the first place. The left demanding "economic credibility". My god!! What a sick joke .....We just went through the fecking looking glass here.
You can't hold both positions ( unless you are from the left and of course then you can). This coalition was handed over a runaway train and just for good measure Engine Driver Brown purposely smashed the brakes as he jumped from the office. The bystanders have voted against pretty much every measure that was needed since that day. Fortunately we have not hit the buffers or run out of track much to Labours disappointment but are on course to be the best economy in the G7 if not the world. With that comes prosperity , jobs and better times but this was never ever going to be a quick fix.
It also shows that Ed Balls was wrong on just about every call he made over the last 5 years and the NHS is still here more than 24 hours later.
Off to generate business now so Labour have more wealth to urinate up against the wall in May
http://www.yourthurrock.com/Tories-talking-Turkish-Tim/story-24827062-detail/story.html
Subtle.
In any case, it is hardly unusual for those in the acting profession to change their names.
http://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/budding-north-west-mep-louise-6370730
Mr. Floater, I'd prefer to see Balls lose his seat.
The Kippers turning cybernatty trend continues. Most amusing.
Would protect him from anti Irish leaflets in Cambridge no ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/motorsport/30271784
Still no word on Button et al. regarding race seats next season.
http://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/budding-north-west-mep-louise-6370730
What's getting me is that what was apparently fine for a Conservative to do and for actors too numerous to mention to do suddenly becomes a heinous crime when a Kipper does it.
Double standards doesn't come close to describing it.
"Incidentally cracking photoshop job in today's Guardian"
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/membership-eb-images/13848454099/940.jpg
That could be just what Labour are looking for to kick off their campaign!
No much support for continued funding of the Co op party
http://www.haveyoursay.coop/summary/hys-summary.pdf
“The Co-operative should first use its money to lower its
prices before it considers providing funding for a
political party”
73 % slightly/strongly agree
26 % DK
6% Strongly/slightly disagree
6%! support funding Balls from Co op profits. Surely unsustainable.
Tim Aker hasn't changed his name by the way, so your unfunny meme is also incorrect
Cameroons truly are the heirs to the Blairites, they lie through their teeth to the voters, check, they alienate their core vote, check, and the try and close down uncomfortable debates by screaming "racist", which even Labour seem to have moved on from, sadly, check.
Fixed it for you, though I don't find such 'humour' mirth inducing.
Double standards from LibLabCon. Again.
Is this sanctimonious shrieking Monday ?