The question - to me - is what is the criteria for inclusion in the leaders' debates?
If it is based on votes at the last GE, then what is the cutoff? If it is based on MPs, what is the cutoff?
Can it really be based on votes to a non-UK body? Or on opinion polls?
I guess the way I would model it would be: - must be standing in enough constituencies to be capable of - however unlikely - winning the election - must have more than 10% of the votes cast in all the elections in the UK in the last 24 months (so locals, plus Europeans, plus by-elections)
The question - then - is whether to impose an additional 'must have an MP' test.
TBH, the Greenies have already had their chance re Global Warming - they've added substantially to energy costs, blighted the countryside with wind turbines that aren't up to the job and have put the Western world at a substantial disadvantage. Oh, but its made Greenies like Al Gore incredibly rich.
That the climate isn't playing ball, and their *scientists* are losing credibility post Climategate just proves that even telling a Really Big Lie doesn't work for very long in the face of the reality.
Global Warming is a fact. Please check the climate records - even if you check the Central England Temperature 30 year averages, there is a trend up in the averages (1981-2010 averages are warmer than 1971-2000 averages which are in turn warmer than the 1961-1990 averages).
As for this spring, yes it's been cold here in the UK but it has been anamalously warm across most parts of the globe (most likely within the top 10 warmest years on record - waiting for NOAA/Hadleigh confirmation)
I just wish people would substantiate any claims with regards to AGW, but as ever on lots of topics on here why let the facts get in the way of a good story...
He is still learning improving at QT, as must be the case due to Cameron not wanting to be there every week. His major platform speeches are also improving. His one to one`s especially on the radio are problematic. However his longer answering questions from an audience, seems to be his best forum to project himself in a good light.
EdM struggles when he is pinned down on, ahem, policies. He is great at rambling saving the world stuff. Dissected, though, it's fluff. Cam has nothing to worry about in debating him.
Er! 2 years from a fixed GE and you want a fixed set of policies like, er, no top down changes of the NHS or er, cut student charges (and sign a contract). Oh, so sorry, the political game plan has changed and who set it up? Get real.
Thing is the economy was trashed and the Cons are untrashing it. That is safe enough ground to hold his own in the debates. In 2010 people were a) sick of Lab and b) in the middle of a super-trashed economy.
Obviously it's opinion polls that make most sense. The point of debates is for voters to see up close the leading options this time, not what they were five years ago. Something like a 5% cut off seems reasonable.
He is still learning improving at QT, as must be the case due to Cameron not wanting to be there every week. His major platform speeches are also improving. His one to one`s especially on the radio are problematic. However his longer answering questions from an audience, seems to be his best forum to project himself in a good light.
EdM struggles when he is pinned down on, ahem, policies. He is great at rambling saving the world stuff. Dissected, though, it's fluff. Cam has nothing to worry about in debating him.
Er! 2 years from a fixed GE and you want a fixed set of policies like, er, no top down changes of the NHS or er, cut student charges (and sign a contract). Oh, so sorry, the political game plan has changed and who set it up? Get real.
Thing is the economy was trashed and the Cons are untrashing it.
I hadn't heard of this WW1 battle before - its sounds absolutely horrific - RIP the soldiers who were lost and to those who've just been found
"Seven of the soldiers have already been identified through the military identification tags they wore. According to official records, these soldiers were killed in combat between March 28 and April 5.
Investigations have already begun to find the descendants of the men.
In cases where the family does not want to recover the body, the soldiers will be buried in the Fleury military cemetery under a white cross.
Where no identification can be made the bones will be kept at the the Douaumont ossuary, a memorial containing the remains of soldiers who died on the battlefield during the Battle of Verdun
During the 300 days of the Battle of Verdun, which lasted from February 21 1916 to December 19 1916, approximately 230,000 men died on a battlefield covering less than eight square miles.
Most were killed by artillery.
The battle became known in German as Die Hölle von Verdun, or in French as L'Enfer de Verdun. Both names translate to English as 'the Hell of Verdun'.
It was the longest and one of the most devastating battles in the First World War and the history of warfare.
I've got to say, I'm increasinlgy disturbed by the willingness of MPs or all parties to use criminal allegations or involve the police as a political weapon.
Mercer (allegedly) has done wrong. Assuming the stories are true, it's good that he has resigned the whip & there is a strong case he should quit now as an MP. But what's the point of involving the police?
You could have made exactly the same point about those MPs who engaged in false accounting in respect of their expenses. MPs ought to be subject to the laws of the land like anyone else.
Sure. The point I was making was slightly different: it's the use of the police of the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner (or the equivalent for local councillors) as a tool for undermining political opponents. The allegation is often enough to wound.
Would there have been a breach of bribery laws anyway in this case? Not an expert, but not sure what value is being created for the alleged bribor?
Adding to what I mentioned earlier: would Farage deserve a place if UKIP is at 8-10% in the polls in March 2015?
Your idea does have merit, however for me there's two problems, the SNP don't deserve to be excluded this time around, but that fails the UK majority test.
I'd also an elected MP test, so the MP has to be elected under that party's banner.
So to stop people defecting and getting places in debates.
So only UKIP in the debates, if they have an elected MP under their banner, not someone who was elected as a Tory but defects to UKIP
He is still learning improving at QT, as must be the case due to Cameron not wanting to be there every week. His major platform speeches are also improving. His one to one`s especially on the radio are problematic. However his longer answering questions from an audience, seems to be his best forum to project himself in a good light.
EdM struggles when he is pinned down on, ahem, policies. He is great at rambling saving the world stuff. Dissected, though, it's fluff. Cam has nothing to worry about in debating him.
Er! 2 years from a fixed GE and you want a fixed set of policies like, er, no top down changes of the NHS or er, cut student charges (and sign a contract). Oh, so sorry, the political game plan has changed and who set it up? Get real.
Thing is the economy was trashed and the Cons are untrashing it.
lol
ah - like someone who laughs inappropriately at a "difficult" play. No problem, allow me to explain:
a) growth positive this year forecast (cf. Europe) b) bond yields sensible above Germany, below most of Europe c) growth positive this year (did I mention that?)
Scotland Yard could launch an investigation into potential breaches of the 2010 Bribery Act by Tory MP Patrick Mercer. The Observer understands that at least one MP is preparing a complaint that could spark a Met probe into whether Mercer has broken the law, amid allegations that he tabled parliamentary questions on behalf of a lobbying firm paying him thousands of pounds.
The revelation raises the prospect that Mercer could be subjected to a criminal investigation, the first into an MP since the act was introduced. Those found guilty under the act can be subject to prison sentences running up to 10 years if the case goes to a full trial.
A potential defence against any charge could be parliamentary privilege – the right of MPs to ask questions without fear of being subject to legal action.
I've got to say, I'm increasinlgy disturbed by the willingness of MPs or all parties to use criminal allegations or involve the police as a political weapon.
Mercer (allegedly) has done wrong. Assuming the stories are true, it's good that he has resigned the whip & there is a strong case he should quit now as an MP. But what's the point of involving the police?
Regardless of the merits, it's a really thin story, isn't it? The Observer "understands" that an MP is "preparing" a complaint, so Mercer "could" be subjected to a criminal investigation. You *could* accuse me of arson and the police would be obliged to consider that allegation too. It doesn't actually mean anything unless they decided to charge him.
Sure, it wouldn't mean anything in practice. But in the meantime the Mail would have written "Labour burnt the country down; former Labour MP accused of arson. Police investigating allegation."
And 90% of the damage would have been done, even if you are completely innocent.
I guess I just wish for the days when there wasn't the need for someone to sit in authority over MPs.
Interesting you should laugh out loud at the fact that the Coalition had had to deal with the most disastrous mess since records began, but then again, I guess you believe that there is a never ending supply of money, which is of course what got us into this mess in the first place. I do hope you have some empathy for those who have suffered as a result.
Obviously it's opinion polls that make most sense. The point of debates is for voters to see up close the leading options this time, not what they were five years ago. Something like a 5% cut off seems reasonable.
Standing in enough seats so that you could theoretically be PM is also important.
Heard a good talk by Antonia Fraser at the Hay Festival this evening on the Great Reform Act in conversation with Simon Jenkins. Seeing Roy Hattersley tomorrow along with Monty Don, Jeremy Irons and Alan Davies!
He is still learning improving at QT, as must be the case due to Cameron not wanting to be there every week. His major platform speeches are also improving. His one to one`s especially on the radio are problematic. However his longer answering questions from an audience, seems to be his best forum to project himself in a good light.
EdM struggles when he is pinned down on, ahem, policies. He is great at rambling saving the world stuff. Dissected, though, it's fluff. Cam has nothing to worry about in debating him.
Er! 2 years from a fixed GE and you want a fixed set of policies like, er, no top down changes of the NHS or er, cut student charges (and sign a contract). Oh, so sorry, the political game plan has changed and who set it up? Get real.
Thing is the economy was trashed and the Cons are untrashing it.
lol
ah - like someone who laughs inappropriately at a "difficult" play. No problem, allow me to explain:
a) growth positive this year forecast (cf. Europe) b) bond yields sensible above Germany, below most of Europe c) growth positive this year (did I mention that?)
a) Not good enough b) irrelevant c) Not good enough
OBR 2010 projections for growth this year was 2.9%. Consensus now is for between 0.8% to 1.0%.
I'm not keen on the debates, to be honest, but Cameron refusing to do one this time around is a bit rich, being as he pushed Brown to do them. He'd look a coward, and deservedly so.
If UKIP are still riding high in the polls in 2015 after a Euro election win and possibly a by-election victory the broadcasters will not countenance doing debates without them, and Cameron (and Miliband too, given the way they are eating into Labour as well) would be mad to give Farage a platform, so I can't see them happening again either.
He is still learning improving at QT, as must be the case due to Cameron not wanting to be there every week. His major platform speeches are also improving. His one to one`s especially on the radio are problematic. However his longer answering questions from an audience, seems to be his best forum to project himself in a good light.
EdM struggles when he is pinned down on, ahem, policies. He is great at rambling saving the world stuff. Dissected, though, it's fluff. Cam has nothing to worry about in debating him.
Er! 2 years from a fixed GE and you want a fixed set of policies like, er, no top down changes of the NHS or er, cut student charges (and sign a contract). Oh, so sorry, the political game plan has changed and who set it up? Get real.
Thing is the economy was trashed and the Cons are untrashing it.
lol
ah - like someone who laughs inappropriately at a "difficult" play. No problem, allow me to explain:
a) growth positive this year forecast (cf. Europe) b) bond yields sensible above Germany, below most of Europe c) growth positive this year (did I mention that?)
a) Not good enough b) irrelevant c) Not good enough
OBR 2010 projections for growth this year was 2.9%. Consensus now is for between 0.8% to 1.0%.
Just not good enough.
a) agree b) illustrates you fundamentally misunderstand what has been going on these past few years c) agree
Interesting you should laugh out loud at the fact that the Coalition had had to deal with the most disastrous mess since records began, but then again, I guess you believe that there is a never ending supply of money, which is of course what got us into this mess in the first place. I do hope you have some empathy for those who have suffered as a result.
I laugh out loud that anyone is deluded enough to think this government is "untrashing" anything given the Tories' abysmal economic record since 2010.
Interesting you should laugh out loud at the fact that the Coalition had had to deal with the most disastrous mess since records began, but then again, I guess you believe that there is a never ending supply of money, which is of course what got us into this mess in the first place. I do hope you have some empathy for those who have suffered as a result.
I laugh out loud that anyone is deluded enough to think this government is "untrashing" anything given the Tories' abysmal economic record since 2010.
Ben I must go to bed now and I don't like trying to have last-word-itis so apologies but at another time I would really like to debate this point.
Suffice to say that I think we were in a different place and facing different risks to where you think we were and what we were facing and I will look forward to hearing at another time how you think, say, a Labour govt would have approached the task differently.
@Ben M Of course you would, just as you would have been applauding the Labour Govt's handling of the economy and the City before the crash.. after all the money was rolling in, why worry...
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
@Ben M Of course you would, just as you would have been applauding the Labour Govt's handling of the economy and the City before the crash.. after all the money was rolling in, why worry...
Had the Tories been in charge in 2008, the fallout would have been far far worse.
@Ben M Of course you would, just as you would have been applauding the Labour Govt's handling of the economy and the City before the crash.. after all the money was rolling in, why worry...
Had the Tories been in charge in 2008, the fallout would have been far far worse.
sorry jumping right back in here 10.30 is pumpkin time.
So hold on - you are counterfactualising what a Tory govt would have done for the last three years of a 13 year Labour administration and berating them for that supposed behaviour in those last three years?
Three peers have been secretly filmed offering to ask parliamentary questions, lobby ministers and host events on the terrace at the House of Lords.
The Sunday Times, posing as a South Korean solar energy company, filmed Lord Cunningham, Lord Mackenzie of Framwellgate and Lord Laird as they revealed their readiness to wield their influence in the halls of power to paying clients.
Laird and Mackenzie revealed to reporters how some of their colleagues were colluding to hide their conflicts of interest from scrutiny, by agreeing to ask questions on behalf of each other’s clients.
Cunningham, formerly Labour’s cabinet office minister, offered to write directly to the prime minister and push the company’s agenda.
Lib Dems on lowest opinion rating ever at 6% on Observer/Opinium. Not that polls are a defining factor at the moment, but it's nice to know.
Calamity Clegg's fightback looks ever more impressive. Ideal time to pontificate comically on that ever delayed lib dem resurgence and Clegg being "back in the saddle" as leader.
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Three peers have been secretly filmed offering to ask parliamentary questions, lobby ministers and host events on the terrace at the House of Lords.
The Sunday Times, posing as a South Korean solar energy company, filmed Lord Cunningham, Lord Mackenzie of Framwellgate and Lord Laird as they revealed their readiness to wield their influence in the halls of power to paying clients.
Laird and Mackenzie revealed to reporters how some of their colleagues were colluding to hide their conflicts of interest from scrutiny, by agreeing to ask questions on behalf of each other’s clients.
Cunningham, formerly Labour’s cabinet office minister, offered to write directly to the prime minister and push the company’s agenda.
Explains why Labour have been so quiet over Mercer...
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
They still put UKIP under "others" as their tables helpfully make clear by showing each question in turn. So that's a pretty good poll for them given unhelpful methodology. [EDIT: I see UKPR explaining that another aspect of their methodology - not weighting by past votes - does seem to help UKIP.] It does appear to include certainty to vote, though I don't see a question on that. Good poll for Labour too, and EdM 6 points above Dave in the slow bicycle race (-22 to -28). Ed's ratings have twice as many "neither good nor bad" ratings as Dave's, presumably people still making up their minds.
Tony Blair today makes his most powerful political intervention since leaving Downing Street by launching an outspoken attack on ‘the problem within Islam’.
The former Prime Minister addresses the shocking killing of Drummer Lee Rigby in Woolwich by going further than he – or any front-rank British politician – has gone before over the issue of Muslim radicalism.
Writing in today’s Mail on Sunday, he departs from the usual argument that Islam is a peaceful religion that should not be tainted by the actions of a few extremists.
Instead, Mr Blair urges governments to ‘be honest’ and admit that the problem is more widespread.
‘There is a problem within Islam – from the adherents of an ideology which is a strain within Islam,’ he writes.
‘We have to put it on the table and be honest about it. Of course there are Christian extremists and Jewish, Buddhist and Hindu ones. But I am afraid this strain is not the province of a few extremists. It has at its heart a view about religion and about the interaction between religion and politics that is not compatible with pluralistic, liberal, open-minded societies.’
"Life as a first-time MP wasn’t helped when she turned up to work at Ede House in South Shields only to find an empty office and a disconnected telephone."
South Shields Labour always living up their "active" fame...did David run away without paying the phone bills?
"Life as a first-time MP wasn’t helped when she turned up to work at Ede House in South Shields only to find an empty office and a disconnected telephone."
South Shields Labour always living up their "active" fame...did David run away without paying the phone bills?
Three peers have been secretly filmed offering to ask parliamentary questions, lobby ministers and host events on the terrace at the House of Lords.
The Sunday Times, posing as a South Korean solar energy company, filmed Lord Cunningham, Lord Mackenzie of Framwellgate and Lord Laird as they revealed their readiness to wield their influence in the halls of power to paying clients.
Laird and Mackenzie revealed to reporters how some of their colleagues were colluding to hide their conflicts of interest from scrutiny, by agreeing to ask questions on behalf of each other’s clients.
Cunningham, formerly Labour’s cabinet office minister, offered to write directly to the prime minister and push the company’s agenda.
Explains why Labour have been so quiet over Mercer...
THis may also have something to do with it
Several MPs from both major parties admitted that they had joined an all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on Fiji.
They were invited to be members by Patrick Mercer, the MP who took £4,000 from undercover reporters posing as lobbyists who said they wanted to overturn sanctions imposed on the country due to its human rights record.
Mr Mercer, pictured, resigned the Conservative whip on Friday after being exposed by The Daily Telegraph and the BBC’s Panorama programme. He boasted to the undercover journalists that he had persuaded 18 MPs to join the APPG.
He said they included “several freeloaders that would like to go to Fiji” and one who asked to take his wife.
Today it can be disclosed that the MPs he persuaded to join include Keith Vaz, the Labour chairman of the home affairs select committee; his sister Valerie, also a Labour MP; Julian Brazier, a Conservative; Mark Field, a Conservative; and Fabian Hamilton, a Labour MP who was said by colleagues to have agreed to be the group’s vice-chairman.
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
"Life as a first-time MP wasn’t helped when she turned up to work at Ede House in South Shields only to find an empty office and a disconnected telephone."
South Shields Labour always living up their "active" fame...did David run away without paying the phone bills?
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Baxtered or buggered the figures a re now becoming a nonsense.
Not really, you keep on telling us that UKIP are taking support from all over the country, from Labour and the Tories, so if it is universal, UNS would suggest that it won't get UKIP many seats, if any.
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Baxtered or buggered the figures a re now becoming a nonsense.
Not really, you keep on telling us that UKIP are taking support from all over the country, from Labour and the Tories, so if it is universal, UNS would suggest that it won't get UKIP many seats, if any.
Complete bollocks. If UKIP get 21% and the Tories 26% - in a General Election - then the models are totally screwed, and no one has any idea how this will play out in seats.
You know this. Stop insulting us with yer nonsense. This is pb.
I'm pointing out that if MikeK's point is true, and UKIP are taking votes from both Labour and the Tories equally, then UNS is more apt, than if UKIP are talking votes from Southern Tories, but this is all very reminiscent of the Cleggasm.
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Baxtered or buggered the figures a re now becoming a nonsense.
Not really, you keep on telling us that UKIP are taking support from all over the country, from Labour and the Tories, so if it is universal, UNS would suggest that it won't get UKIP many seats, if any.
Complete bollocks. If UKIP get 21% and the Tories 26% - in a General Election - then the models are totally screwed, and no one has any idea how this will play out in seats.
You know this. Stop insulting us with yer nonsense. This is pb.
I don't think the models are totally screwed. UNS only predicts the "mean". Each seat will behave differently. I suggest a +/- 3% would be very interesting !
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Baxtered or buggered the figures a re now becoming a nonsense.
Not really, you keep on telling us that UKIP are taking support from all over the country, from Labour and the Tories, so if it is universal, UNS would suggest that it won't get UKIP many seats, if any.
Complete bollocks. If UKIP get 21% and the Tories 26% - in a General Election - then the models are totally screwed, and no one has any idea how this will play out in seats.
You know this. Stop insulting us with yer nonsense. This is pb.
I'm pointing out that if MikeK's point is true, and UKIP are taking votes from both Labour and the Tories equally, then UNS is more apt, than if UKIP are talking votes from Southern Tories, but this is all very reminiscent of the Cleggasm.
I agree tse. No doubt that ukip will increase their share, but I'd be surprised if it was over 10% at the next general election. How much it reminds and how it unwinds is going to be very interesting
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Baxtered or buggered the figures a re now becoming a nonsense.
Not really, you keep on telling us that UKIP are taking support from all over the country, from Labour and the Tories, so if it is universal, UNS would suggest that it won't get UKIP many seats, if any.
Complete bollocks. If UKIP get 21% and the Tories 26% - in a General Election - then the models are totally screwed, and no one has any idea how this will play out in seats.
You know this. Stop insulting us with yer nonsense. This is pb.
I'm pointing out that if MikeK's point is true, and UKIP are taking votes from both Labour and the Tories equally, then UNS is more apt, than if UKIP are talking votes from Southern Tories, but this is all very reminiscent of the Cleggasm.
How many f*cking times do I have to post these graphs??
Here is the UKIP polling over the last two or three years.
Yes, there has been a definite new surge in recent months, but UKIP have been steadily growing as a force for 20-30 months. Indeed there is a steady trend detectable since 2011, which can be mathematically extrapolated.
By contrast, the Cleggasm came and went in about 3 weeks, over the debates - AS WE ALL KNOW. For someone as allegedly intelligent as you to compare these two things, on pb, is depressing. Get a grip.
My point in comparing it to the Cleggasm is that we don't know what will happen until the votes are cast. Just remember The LD share went up, and they still experienced a net loss in seats.
For the record, I can see UKIP getting anything from zero to 6 MPs at the next election.
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
Baxtered or buggered the figures a re now becoming a nonsense.
Not really, you keep on telling us that UKIP are taking support from all over the country, from Labour and the Tories, so if it is universal, UNS would suggest that it won't get UKIP many seats, if any.
Complete bollocks. If UKIP get 21% and the Tories 26% - in a General Election - then the models are totally screwed, and no one has any idea how this will play out in seats.
You know this. Stop insulting us with yer nonsense. This is pb.
I'm pointing out that if MikeK's point is true, and UKIP are taking votes from both Labour and the Tories equally, then UNS is more apt, than if UKIP are talking votes from Southern Tories, but this is all very reminiscent of the Cleggasm.
How many f*cking times do I have to post these graphs??
Here is the UKIP polling over the last two or three years.
Yes, there has been a definite new surge in recent months, but UKIP have been steadily growing as a force for 20-30 months. Indeed there is a steady trend detectable since 2011, which can be mathematically extrapolated.
By contrast, the Cleggasm came and went in about 3 weeks, over the debates - AS WE ALL KNOW. For someone as allegedly intelligent as you to compare these two things, on pb, is depressing. Get a grip.
My point in comparing it to the Cleggasm is that we don't know what will happen until the votes are cast. Just remember The LD share went up, and they still experienced a net loss in seats.
For the record, I can see UKIP getting anything from zero to 6 MPs at the next election.
But there is no comparison with the Cleggasm. The analogy is so inapt as to be actively deceptive and mendacious. The Cleggasm was based solely on a nice young chap momentarily seeming preferable in the unproven new forum of TV debates, compared to old party leaders.
The rise of UKIP is totally different: it is the slow but definite ascent (recently accelerated) of a new, hard right populist party, occupying vast ideological space vacated by the main parties, in part thanks to FPTP.
It is quite true that UKIP may end up with no seats at all, and be equally as dismayed as the LDs. But any equation between their years of remorseless progress, with the brief effervescent LD poll-boost in the election campaign of 2010, is utterly farcical.
My aim was not to be deceptive and mendacious.
I'm really enjoying the UKIP surge, and I'm enjoying trying to analyse it, and make sense of it, and what it means for the future.
Look folks, I know you're thinking the mods are being OTT re the Mail story, but the same was said during the Lord McAlpine farrago.
As Sally Bercow, the BBC and ITV found out, these stories can be very expensive, and I know none of you want OGH to end up in the same position as Sally Bercow.
Even the Mail themselves say they aren't mentioning the people involved for Legal reasons.
WHEN Tony Blair gave a feel-good speech at a conference on philanthropy in Beijing, it seemed just another stop on the former prime minister’s international road show.
Blair declared himself “an old friend of China” and expounded on how a wealthier China would “ensure a society with more love and care”, according to official reports of his remarks.
Now research by The Sunday Times has established that Blair’s keynote speech was hosted by a front organisation for the department of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that runs psychological warfare and covert influence operations against foreign political and military leaders.
We keep trying to guess at the future on the basis of a trivial sample - in the case of the cleggasm a sample of 1. The fact that the cleggasm collapsed doesn't mean that UKIP's surge will or won't.
Looking at the graphs, the UKIP rise seems to have been in three quite distinct stages. THey got up to 4% without any obvious reason, and that must surely be a minimum 2015 vote unless they really implode. They doubled to 8% when the budget omnishambles screwed the Tory vote - thus soaking up about half the Tory loss. They then drifted for some time, before the series of recent events that we all know.
The key question is probably whether people have terminally lost patience with Cameron and the Tories. If UKIP voters continue to think that that he's much of a muchness with Labour, then there's no reason why the surge should collapse. Internationally, the trend is for populist surges to last through one election, after which they often do subside - Grillo seems to be delivering a textbook example. FPTP does make it much higher stakes. Betfair should open a spread on it - it's possible to imagine some enormous Tory losses, or almost none.
We keep trying to guess at the future on the basis of a trivial sample - in the case of the cleggasm a sample of 1. The fact that the cleggasm collapsed doesn't mean that UKIP's surge will or won't.
Looking at the graphs, the UKIP rise seems to have been in three quite distinct stages. THey got up to 4% without any obvious reason, and that must surely be a minimum 2015 vote unless they really implode. They doubled to 8% when the budget omnishambles screwed the Tory vote - thus soaking up about half the Tory loss. They then drifted for some time, before the series of recent events that we all know.
The key question is probably whether people have terminally lost patience with Cameron and the Tories. If UKIP voters continue to think that that he's much of a muchness with Labour, then there's no reason why the surge should collapse. Internationally, the trend is for populist surges to last through one election, after which they often do subside - Grillo seems to be delivering a textbook example. FPTP does make it much higher stakes. Betfair should open a spread on it - it's possible to imagine some enormous Tory losses, or almost none.
One of the other things I'm trying to analyse is how much of UKIP's current vote didn't vote in 2010, and when they did last vote, for whom did they vote.
Edit: As it was before my time, does the current UKIP surge resemble what happened when the SDP was formed?
We keep trying to guess at the future on the basis of a trivial sample - in the case of the cleggasm a sample of 1. The fact that the cleggasm collapsed doesn't mean that UKIP's surge will or won't.
Looking at the graphs, the UKIP rise seems to have been in three quite distinct stages. THey got up to 4% without any obvious reason, and that must surely be a minimum 2015 vote unless they really implode. They doubled to 8% when the budget omnishambles screwed the Tory vote - thus soaking up about half the Tory loss. They then drifted for some time, before the series of recent events that we all know.
The key question is probably whether people have terminally lost patience with Cameron and the Tories. If UKIP voters continue to think that that he's much of a muchness with Labour, then there's no reason why the surge should collapse. Internationally, the trend is for populist surges to last through one election, after which they often do subside - Grillo seems to be delivering a textbook example. FPTP does make it much higher stakes. Betfair should open a spread on it - it's possible to imagine some enormous Tory losses, or almost none.
If there was actually any danger of "enormous Tory losses" I think it's fair to say Cameron will be eviscerated by his party before May 2015.
Comments
The question - to me - is what is the criteria for inclusion in the leaders' debates?
If it is based on votes at the last GE, then what is the cutoff?
If it is based on MPs, what is the cutoff?
Can it really be based on votes to a non-UK body? Or on opinion polls?
I guess the way I would model it would be:
- must be standing in enough constituencies to be capable of - however unlikely - winning the election
- must have more than 10% of the votes cast in all the elections in the UK in the last 24 months (so locals, plus Europeans, plus by-elections)
The question - then - is whether to impose an additional 'must have an MP' test.
TBH, the Greenies have already had their chance re Global Warming - they've added substantially to energy costs, blighted the countryside with wind turbines that aren't up to the job and have put the Western world at a substantial disadvantage. Oh, but its made Greenies like Al Gore incredibly rich.
That the climate isn't playing ball, and their *scientists* are losing credibility post Climategate just proves that even telling a Really Big Lie doesn't work for very long in the face of the reality.
Global Warming is a fact. Please check the climate records - even if you check the Central England Temperature 30 year averages, there is a trend up in the averages (1981-2010 averages are warmer than 1971-2000 averages which are in turn warmer than the 1961-1990 averages).
As for this spring, yes it's been cold here in the UK but it has been anamalously warm across most parts of the globe (most likely within the top 10 warmest years on record - waiting for NOAA/Hadleigh confirmation)
I just wish people would substantiate any claims with regards to AGW, but as ever on lots of topics on here why let the facts get in the way of a good story...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/340934013889957888/photo/1
Obviously it's opinion polls that make most sense. The point of debates is for voters to see up close the leading options this time, not what they were five years ago. Something like a 5% cut off seems reasonable.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/340933427538849792/photo/1
Would there have been a breach of bribery laws anyway in this case? Not an expert, but not sure what value is being created for the alleged bribor?
b) outside chance it will make the Cons a bit more human if it isn't too bizarre a coupling.
I'd also an elected MP test, so the MP has to be elected under that party's banner.
So to stop people defecting and getting places in debates.
So only UKIP in the debates, if they have an elected MP under their banner, not someone who was elected as a Tory but defects to UKIP
a) growth positive this year forecast (cf. Europe)
b) bond yields sensible above Germany, below most of Europe
c) growth positive this year (did I mention that?)
And 90% of the damage would have been done, even if you are completely innocent.
I guess I just wish for the days when there wasn't the need for someone to sit in authority over MPs.
Interesting you should laugh out loud at the fact that the Coalition had had to deal with the most disastrous mess since records began, but then again, I guess you believe that there is a never ending supply of money, which is of course what got us into this mess in the first place. I do hope you have some empathy for those who have suffered as a result.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/340934013889957888/photo/1
b) irrelevant
c) Not good enough
OBR 2010 projections for growth this year was 2.9%. Consensus now is for between 0.8% to 1.0%.
Just not good enough.
b) illustrates you fundamentally misunderstand what has been going on these past few years
c) agree
Secret court jails father for sending son 21st birthday greeting on Facebook after he was gagged from naming him
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2334123/Secret-court-jails-father-sending-son-21st-birthday-greeting-Facebook-gagged-naming-him.html
How about ********* and *********?
Priceless.
Suffice to say that I think we were in a different place and facing different risks to where you think we were and what we were facing and I will look forward to hearing at another time how you think, say, a Labour govt would have approached the task differently.
But for now I must say a bientot.
Of course you would, just as you would have been applauding the Labour Govt's handling of the economy and the City before the crash.. after all the money was rolling in, why worry...
Latest Obsever/Opinium poll puts support for Nigel Farage's party at 21%, a new high
The anti-European party has reached 21% in the polls in a new high. Labour are unchanged from the last Observer/Opinium poll a fortnight ago, on 37%, while the Conservatives drop to 26%.
Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats has sunk to 6% – the lowest proportion of the vote recorded by Opinium for the party.
Meanwhile David Cameron's approval rating continues to tick downwards, with 28% approving compared to 29% who don't in the last poll.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/01/ukip-support-voters-poll
Labour nc
Tories minus 1
Lib Dems minus 1
UKIP plus 1
So hold on - you are counterfactualising what a Tory govt would have done for the last three years of a 13 year Labour administration and berating them for that supposed behaviour in those last three years?
Really?
' Not good enough'
Can you remind us of how much the economy grew from May 2005 to May 2010.
MODERATED
Talk about a scandal.
Dan Hodges thinks little Ed is too left wing.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100219495/the-labour-left-has-the-wrong-ideas-but-at-least-itll-fight-for-them-the-blairite-centrists-have-given-up/
LOL
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2334427/My-time-Dr-Who-Matt-Smith-quits-hit-new-film--So-Time-Lord.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-22741493
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2334483/No-10-rocked-secret-love-affair-Stunned-PM-holds-crisis-talks-fears-tryst-blow-political-agenda-water.html
Three peers have been secretly filmed offering to ask parliamentary questions, lobby ministers and host events on the terrace at the House of Lords.
The Sunday Times, posing as a South Korean solar energy company, filmed Lord Cunningham, Lord Mackenzie of Framwellgate and Lord Laird as they revealed their readiness to wield their influence in the halls of power to paying clients.
Laird and Mackenzie revealed to reporters how some of their colleagues were colluding to hide their conflicts of interest from scrutiny, by agreeing to ask questions on behalf of each other’s clients.
Cunningham, formerly Labour’s cabinet office minister, offered to write directly to the prime minister and push the company’s agenda.
;^ )
Will UKIP reach 26% by September? LOL
Perhaps wise.
Con 219
Labour 383
LD 22
UKIP Zero
Labour majority 116
As we can't talk about bizarrely obscure story X, we may as well talk about Opinium, the full tables of which are up:
http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/VI_28_05_2013.pdf
They still put UKIP under "others" as their tables helpfully make clear by showing each question in turn. So that's a pretty good poll for them given unhelpful methodology. [EDIT: I see UKPR explaining that another aspect of their methodology - not weighting by past votes - does seem to help UKIP.] It does appear to include certainty to vote, though I don't see a question on that. Good poll for Labour too, and EdM 6 points above Dave in the slow bicycle race (-22 to -28). Ed's ratings have twice as many "neither good nor bad" ratings as Dave's, presumably people still making up their minds.
The former Prime Minister addresses the shocking killing of Drummer Lee Rigby in Woolwich by going further than he – or any front-rank British politician – has gone before over the issue of Muslim radicalism.
Writing in today’s Mail on Sunday, he departs from the usual argument that Islam is a peaceful religion that should not be tainted by the actions of a few extremists.
Instead, Mr Blair urges governments to ‘be honest’ and admit that the problem is more widespread.
‘There is a problem within Islam – from the adherents of an ideology which is a strain within Islam,’ he writes.
‘We have to put it on the table and be honest about it. Of course there are Christian extremists and Jewish, Buddhist and Hindu ones. But I am afraid this strain is not the province of a few extremists. It has at its heart a view about religion and about the interaction between religion and politics that is not compatible with pluralistic, liberal, open-minded societies.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2334451/Tony-Blair-says-murder-Lee-Rigby-PROVES-problem-Islam.html#ixzz2V0JTNOdB
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
"Life as a first-time MP wasn’t helped when she turned up to work at Ede House in South Shields only to find an empty office and a disconnected telephone."
South Shields Labour always living up their "active" fame...did David run away without paying the phone bills?
Several MPs from both major parties admitted that they had joined an all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on Fiji.
They were invited to be members by Patrick Mercer, the MP who took £4,000 from undercover reporters posing as lobbyists who said they wanted to overturn sanctions imposed on the country due to its human rights record.
Mr Mercer, pictured, resigned the Conservative whip on Friday after being exposed by The Daily Telegraph and the BBC’s Panorama programme. He boasted to the undercover journalists that he had persuaded 18 MPs to join the APPG.
He said they included “several freeloaders that would like to go to Fiji” and one who asked to take his wife.
Today it can be disclosed that the MPs he persuaded to join include Keith Vaz, the Labour chairman of the home affairs select committee; his sister Valerie, also a Labour MP; Julian Brazier, a Conservative; Mark Field, a Conservative; and Fabian Hamilton, a Labour MP who was said by colleagues to have agreed to be the group’s vice-chairman.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10093692/Row-over-lobbying-and-MPs-freebies.html
Breaking: Horrific Video from #Ankara of Police Vehicle just plowing over people http://youtu.be/h_0AoL72Evw #Istanbul #Turkey #OccupyGezi
Nothing more need be said.
For the record, I can see UKIP getting anything from zero to 6 MPs at the next election.
I think there were two 'gagging orders', one of which wasn't done propoerly, so wasn't tied to adulthood.
I'm really enjoying the UKIP surge, and I'm enjoying trying to analyse it, and make sense of it, and what it means for the future.
So why didn't the judge strike it out?
"That's the sound of silence..."
As Sally Bercow, the BBC and ITV found out, these stories can be very expensive, and I know none of you want OGH to end up in the same position as Sally Bercow.
Even the Mail themselves say they aren't mentioning the people involved for Legal reasons.
It would be kinda funny if Mike came back off holiday to find we'd destroyed his website and writ was waiting for him! :^O
WHEN Tony Blair gave a feel-good speech at a conference on philanthropy in Beijing, it seemed just another stop on the former prime minister’s international road show.
Blair declared himself “an old friend of China” and expounded on how a wealthier China would “ensure a society with more love and care”, according to official reports of his remarks.
Now research by The Sunday Times has established that Blair’s keynote speech was hosted by a front organisation for the department of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that runs psychological warfare and covert influence operations against foreign political and military leaders.
It would be like when Fawlty came back from playing golf to find that Polly (and Mr O'Reilly) has destrroyed his hotel!
Looking at the graphs, the UKIP rise seems to have been in three quite distinct stages. THey got up to 4% without any obvious reason, and that must surely be a minimum 2015 vote unless they really implode. They doubled to 8% when the budget omnishambles screwed the Tory vote - thus soaking up about half the Tory loss. They then drifted for some time, before the series of recent events that we all know.
The key question is probably whether people have terminally lost patience with Cameron and the Tories. If UKIP voters continue to think that that he's much of a muchness with Labour, then there's no reason why the surge should collapse. Internationally, the trend is for populist surges to last through one election, after which they often do subside - Grillo seems to be delivering a textbook example. FPTP does make it much higher stakes. Betfair should open a spread on it - it's possible to imagine some enormous Tory losses, or almost none.
Edit: As it was before my time, does the current UKIP surge resemble what happened when the SDP was formed?