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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well
Acting for Exeter University’s Falmouth campus (and their documentary on the 2015 election in Cornwall []) Survation have polled the Camborne and Redruth Constituency
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The weirdest results won't be where UKIP wins, they'll be where UKIP weaken the blues or reds so an unexpected third party comes through the middle (if, indeed, that happens). The impact of the purple patch in the north could be interesting.
£870 is an odd number.
The points you make about my opinions are not at all unfair ones given the limited evidence available to you just from my postings here. However I would make the point that I don't believe that I have ever been in denial about my political leanings. The shifts in my views over the years have been genuine ones fed and generated by my life experiences.
This is not me coming to terms with views that I was in denial about - it's views evolving and changing over time as I've lived my life from teenager to 40-year-old. I've learned lessons as I've gone along - as we all do. It might surprise you to learn that I was an EU-sceptic myself in my teens and twenties and was actually, albeit briefly, a Conservative Party member in the early 2000s.
I'd also, politely, like to take issue with your suggestion that I consider right of centre views on the EU, immigration and such as illegitimate. I don't - I believe that they're profoundly misguided but not illegitimate. I know that you hold your views as sincerely as I hold mine and I don't wish to suggest otherwise or suggest that you're not entitled to hold them. The reason that I get a bit wound up about these issues is because I feel very strongly about them - again, that's true of you too from the opposite side of the argument.
Lastly, I'm quite intrigued by your suggestion that I might be a social democrat. That's not a possibility that's ever crossed my mind. It's the Greens that I feel closest to now - indeed I've made a few small donations to them of late and I just hope they put up a candidate in my constituency next year.
LibDems on 6%/13%.
And this in a seat that the LibDems lost by just 66 votes last time out.
There's a story here alright - just not the one that Mike has highlighted
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
But you don't need a lot of votes to win a four-way marginal...
50/1 seems like fairly mean odds, though, doesn't it? I'd have thought there would be widespread anti-UKIP tactical voting if there was any risk of them getting close to a majority, and their ceiling of support currently seems to be about the low 30s (from what I remember of the polling on whether people would consider voting for party x, or party y).
Even on about 30% of the vote UKIP would probably still come third in seats.
Lots of Labour votes in the South, with little show for it in terms of seats? DavidL has gone on and on and on about a possible large drop in Labour's efficiency in converting votes to seats. Wouldn't matter if Miliband & co. were polling ~10% ahead. The sort of thing that could confound election predictions.
I missed the fact that Labour took 16% of the vote in 2010, so this doesn't represent much of a change. Ooops.
Like most seats in the big cities, it's been trending Lab's way, especially as it has a very high level of public-sector employment.
Maybe the punter thinks the price will shorten and the bet can be layed off but I don't really see how much shorter it can get. UKIP are barely fielding enough credible candidates to form a majority. Antifrank's excellent summary* suggests that with a (very) fair wind they might make 26 (and equally they might make zero.)
I have a fiver on Farage to be next PM at 200-1. I think I must have been drunk. The good thing is that I can now recover my cost. The better thing is that it was only a fiver.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/
How credible is Pinnockio's son? He'll still get elected. Same as the other scions of the Labour elite.
The LDs are going to get a lot of poor results next year - in 500 or more constituencies, the vote will be squeezed and apart from poor thirds and fourths, there will be plenty of poor fifths, sixths and who knows even a seventh or so.
None of that matters and as Ashcroft showed earlier in the week, in the seats that do matter, the Party is doing surprisingly well. That is NOT a matter for complacency or confidence - there's a huge amount to do but the very real prospect of retaining a reasonable Parliamentary presence is there and every seat the Party wins increases its influence especially if (as seems likely) neither of the duopoly parties can achieve a majority.
However it's a seat which the LD didn't take in 2010 and the LD drop in neighbouring seats is much less at 17% in St. Austell and 11% in St. Ives.
I wonder whether another point to bear in mind is that many of the “new jobs” allegedly created are former public sector ones, now privatised. Whether those employees will be happier in the new world of commerce, on lower wages and with worse conditions, and therefore likley to change their previous voting habits, is, to my mind doubtful!
Can we consider for a minute? Clegg is massively in favour of the EU, there was no secret about that or his hand wringing LibDem credentials. So all the people who flocked cheering to his banner are now... kippers? Just explain how that works? Turncoat ex LD student voters in Sheffield are morphing into rabid kippers?
And if, if, its just 'protest', well there is a history of protest votes being squeezed out in elections. And in this case it would be a particularly mindless protest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30259090
He was pro-China and seeking to further economic ties, but it seems many Taiwanese are concerned they could become dependent on China economically.
2010 Morley: LAB 38, CON 35, LD 17, BNP 7, UKIP 3
Now add the BNP and UKIP, UKIP starts at 10, take 10 from the LD to UKIP, UKIP at 20, take another 5 from CON to UKIP (very optimistic for Tories), UKIP at 25. So far it's LAB 38, CON 30, UKIP 25, LD 7.
Now for the Tories to beat Labour at 30% UKIP has to take another 9% from Labour with Labour getting no extra support from the LD, the result would be UKIP 34, CON 30, LAB 29, LD7, UKIP gain the seat not the Tories.
I hope you are right. It would make me 4,000 quid on the spreads alone, but I'm sure Antifrank is right with his quesstimate of 3-10 seats. They have precious little representation in Wales and Scotland. Even in England it's patchy.
Who is Pinnockio?
Ashcroft had the Conservatives polling 28% in England on Monday - far worse than 1997 or 2001. On that basis alone, Labour are going to win a majority and the irony of Labour losing seats in Scotland and winning a majority in England wouldn't be lost on anyone.
Rochester & Strood was lost despite the kitchen sink (and most of the rest of the kitchen ) being thrown at it and it took hundreds of activists visiting regularly to save one of their safest seats in the form of Newark.
We know that where the Conservatives are concerned, nothing will be left to chance that cannot be influenced by money and the amount of sheer expense the Tories will throw at the electorate in 2015 will make an interesting contrast to the campaign rhetoric about the need to continue with austerity.
The Autumn Statement is stage 1 of the Conservative election campaign - we all know that and I expect Osborne to be hailed as some form of triumphant hero by many on here come Wednesday afternoon. The truth for most people is that for all the statistics, it's been a very difficult five years and for many living standards are below what they were in 2010. Whether it could or would have been worse with Labour is irrelevant, they've been in Opposition.
That doesn't alter the fact Labour have consistently failed to offer any meaningful economic policy since 2010 - there has and remains to be a valid critique of Osborne's policies from the free market end of the spectrum which Osborne's allies have in their turn never really answered.
To make a long story short, Taiwan&China is like Canada&US.
Spot on. And the Conservatives have had the advantage of Ed M as LOTO. Makes you wonder how they would be doing if they had some decent opposition.
No, I didn't get the winner of the Hennessey either.
I haven't looked into the seats individually at all, but I wonder what price they are to get a seat there?
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/UKGE-Polls.png
They should certainly both be asking why they are not doing better.
There's plenty of clues out there.
Yes, you've pulled me up about Wales before.
I need to have a closer look at it. Could be some value there.
Don't suppose you got the winner of the Hennessey?
What a load of nonsense. The Conservative polling has held up remarkably well given the task they've had to perform. How often have incumbent governments' been this close under similar circumstances. Even the losses to UKIP can hardly be called typical mid-term by-elections as both were won by 'switchers' - and congratulations to them. OTOH - the LD polling decline is a nightmare and assuming the Ashcroft polling will save you is highly complacent at this stage. Agreed that with a better leader Labour may be doing a little better but without Cameron the Tories would be much worse. Would that you could say the same about Clegg.
A few days ago I put £2 with Betfair on New Zealand in their Test vs Pakistan. The odds were 27. I'm now being offered a cashout of £35.89 and profit of £33.89. I just wish I'd put more than the minimum £2 on the Kiwis.
What were the issues/arguments that caused your views to change? My views have changed a lot over the years: I used to be much more of an arrogant "us, the educated elite, know best" type, and I've found that smart people have just as many prejudices and unthought-through opinions as the guy down the pub. I thus now hear out working class concerns a lot more. On the other hand, the more I've learnt about history, the more I've appreciated how unique a historical accident liberal democracy is, and I've become a lot more strong-minded about the protections that are part of that.
As for the Greens, they seem to me that they would be too economically left-wing for you. If you were once a Tory, presumably on economic grounds, I can't quite understand how you can side with a party that believes in zero growth.
I'd want 500/1 minimum. With a bit of creativity, you can get much higher odds on (effectively) the same outcome, betting on the side markets.
Conservative 29%
Labour 24%
Liberal Democrat 14%
UKIP 26%
Other 7%
Joke joke!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30138337
In fact I think a corrupted version of this candidate's name was the one that was used with the recent constituency poll.
Proof indeed that it's the party rather than the candidate that matters most of the time.
The problem is some Tories believe the current UKIP poll rating will evaporate at the first sound of electoral gunfire much as the Liberal or LD rating used to and they may be right but it needs to get down to single figures at the very least and currently UKIP numbers seem solid in the mid to high teens.
You are of course quite correct that your party's biggest electoral asset is David Cameron but he's part of the problem as well in that there are many ex-Tories who would gladly return if the Party was led by a Conservative and not a "liberal Conservative". Indeed, as we've seen, two of your ex-MPs decided they could manage without him pretty well.
Pockets of survivors form the basis of the recovery - that's what happened after the disasters of 1970 and 1979 and indeed the 1989-90 merger fiasco. A combination of this plus the turning of the political tide will see the LDs recover but to what I have no idea.
The Conservatives lost 2,000 Councillors in a single night in 1995 as well as half the Parliamentary strength in 1997 but recovered on both counts.
The paradox is the opportunism and futility of Opposition and the electoral success it brings against the opportunity to achieve something in Government and the electoral cost that entails. I'm glad the Party has been in Government - I never thought I'd see it. We've achieved far more since 2010 than had we stayed in Opposition polling 25% and winning local by-elections week after week.
Given the difficult economic inheritance and the Labour Party responsibility for that you have to wonder where the inevitable knee jerk protest vote goes in a coalition govt.
The LD notion that you can be in govt and at the same time aspire to be the protest party against that govt seems to have been flogged to death.
Since 2010, 1 in 6 civil service jobs lost.
Since 2010, half a million public sector jobs gone.
1.1 million public sector jobs to disappear by 2019.
£2.6 billion savings in abolishing and reforming QUANGOs
What a total lack.
If you ask me its an absloute disgrace that Cameron did not give in to the recent NHS strike protesting about their pay restraint.
Sooner we get a proper Conservative govt the better. You had better watch out they do not put a tax on stupidity though.
I'm not convinced that the current strategy by George Eustice makes sense. He is apparently reminding constituents that he used to be a UKIP member.
I'd have thought many would plump for the real thing, while centrist voters he might need will peel away.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2853741/SIMON-HEFFER-believe-s-inevitable-English-parliament.html
- As in previous weeks, most people seem to have firmly decided on Lab, Con or UKIP, or "never vote", with "we'll have to see" responses unusually rare.
- We think there was a slight uptick in people talking about immigration this week, though they seemed to be UKIP-leaning when they did. Cameron's speech wasn't mentioned but has perhaps raised the salience of the issue. A floating voter, UKIP in the Euros, said embarrassedly that her workplace was mostly Polish and "It's making me racist, and I don't want to be."
- In our local by-election in a safe Tory ward triggered by UKIP, UKIP haven't managed to put out a leaflet timed to go out with the postal votes (we failed to do that too at the 2010 GE, squirm). Labour has put one out to believed supporters, the Tories, who have an inadequate ground game to identify supporters, have sent a generic "Dear resident" letter to everyone.
- Lots of UKIP activity in the constituency, but I don't sense an experienced hand at work. Their main leaflet so far is A4 folded with three sides entirely packed with text in, I think. 10-point Courier font. There's a much more effective A5 one with a bar chart from the Euros - only UKIP can beat Labour here seems to be the message.
- I had one former Tory telling me he was voting UKIP this time, "That'll show you!" "It will indeed," I murmured courteously. He looked a bit disappointed. Note to self: practice looking horrified.
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Just out of interest, I have in the past been extremely critical of UKIP leaflets on account of the clear reference to the NF/BNP mood of the past. Were these ones different?
And whoever put down £870 at 50/1 has wasted their money.
I wouldn't say that the two UKIP leaflets I've seen have anything very BNP/NFish. The general flavour is typified by the text "UKIP recognises and values a unifying British culture which is open and inclusive to anyone who wishes to identify with Britain, regardless of their ethnic and religious background." This isn't something that is really designed to appeal to me as I'm too multicultural, but I think it's a reasonable view and can't be described as racist.
UKIP's problem is that it's clearly the least bad option at the moment for anyone who really does have BNP/NFish views, so they struggle to avoid having some unpleasant characters popping up. But I would accept that they're making an effort.
Neil MacGregor's brilliant radio series on Germany is available to download:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/germany/all
https://faintdamnation.wordpress.com/2014/11/29/jacobites-and-jacobins-the-problem-with-yes-fundamentalism/
When do you stop door-stepping for Christmas?
But you find a situation that is not in line with how the polling has moved over the past year+
We have had from you a common line that "voters opinions are made up" for at least a year. However in that time Labour has seen their support drop by 1/5th. So either:-
1. Broxtowe is out of line with the national moves.
2. People are telling untruths to you.
Another person who thinks we have a Conservative Government and on a Political Betting Site:-)
I blame the education system as they clearly can read we have a Coalition .. or maybe they have been buried for the past four years :-)