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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : November 27th 2014

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  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    It's like dealing with dumb and dumber.

    Nice
    You don't have to insult everyone who disagrees with you
    Are you sure single people cant get Working Tax Credit?
    An undisabled single person '25 or over ' and earning 13K a year and working more than 30 hours a week gets £45 a year tax credit. Above that nothing. Below that more.

    If you are disabled you do get a credit if under 25.

    The point I note is the qualifying hours which would seem to exclude part time work.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    One of the seats doing a recount:
    angus young ‏@angus_young61 13m13 minutes ago
    Its looking close between the Conservatives snd UKIP in Howdenshire. Count nears end

    18.2% turnout.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    I think the tories won this one:
    Danny Marten ‏@dannymarten 34m34 minutes ago
    Conservatives will willerby and kirk ella by-election Con 1522 lab 515 ukip 699 @dlpalmer1981 should be commended
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UKIP gain SDP seat:
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Bridlington Central & Old Town (East Yorkshire):
    UKIP GAIN from SDP.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour have held a ward by just 21 votes over the Tories situated in the safe Labour seat of Hayes & Harlington.

    You have to compare it with past elections in the same council seat, it was a close result last time.
    Yes, it means Labour aren't making much progress in that area compared to 6 months ago.
    It also means neither are the Conservatives or UKIP for that matter
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    It's like dealing with dumb and dumber.

    Nice
    You don't have to insult everyone who disagrees with you
    Are you sure single people cant get Working Tax Credit?
    An undisabled single person '25 or over ' and earning 13K a year and working more than 30 hours a week gets £45 a year tax credit. Above that nothing. Below that more.

    If you are disabled you do get a credit if under 25.

    The point I note is the qualifying hours which would seem to exclude part time work.
    I cant claim to be an expert, and may have overlooked something, but if I was single and thinking of claiming, this wouldn't tell me I couldn't would it?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children#you-are-single-or-have-a-partner-and-the-person-who-works-has-a-disability
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    Speedy said:

    UKIP gain SDP seat:
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Bridlington Central & Old Town (East Yorkshire):
    UKIP GAIN from SDP.

    Not a headline you'll often see.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    UKIP gain SDP seat:
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Bridlington Central & Old Town (East Yorkshire):
    UKIP GAIN from SDP.

    Not a headline you'll often see.
    A one in a million chance I think, but it happened.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Tonight's YouGov represents a 20 point drop in support for the three established parties compared to 2010.

    ENP 4.3
  • I really like the thought of David Cameron banning London MP's from voting on Non-London legislation and stopping all non London MP's voting on London legislation.

    Oh! Er! Missus! What will Boris say? What will the electorate in all the other English regions and cities say when they catch on.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    angus young @angus_young61 · 3m 3 minutes ago
    That Bridlington result in full
    UKIP 401
    CON 352
    IND 217
    IND 214
    IND 116
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Bottom line. Even Juncker said publicly he didn't mind Britain having a sort of 'associate membership' -albeit that free movement of peoples was not on the table, but still. Cameron didn't and doesn't want it. A eurosceptic doesn't belong in Cameron's Conservatives. A euro-doubter doesn't belong in Cameron's Conservatives. Anyone who isn't a foam flecked wild eyed eurofanatic doesn't belong in Cameron's Conservatives.

    Another made up fantasy.
    BTW Andrew Duff, a Lib Dem MEP, pointed out that "associate member" status would mean the UK giving up much of its influence in the EU.

    This may or may not be a good thing but pregiving up on 'influence' hardly seems a good thing to me when you are looking to negotiate a new position.
    What 'associate' status highlights is that the EU is not going to go away and in or out we will have to relate to it. The notion that we will be miraculously less 'bullied' (in the febrile kipper mind) when out as opposed to being in is in my rational mind a moot one.

    I do not go all weak at the knees at the thought of associate status - it simply will make very little difference.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CON win in Howdenshire:
    CON 1020
    UKIP 891
    LAB 298
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Interesting to note that the Labour guest on BBC Question Time tonight is Chuka Umunna, especially as it was Andy Burnham who appeared last week. I wonder if Yvette Cooper is now being lined up to appear on the programme next week? If so, I find it hard to believe that Ed Miliband and his team would have sanctioned the main contenders to succeed him having a dry run in a future Leadership contest to replace him after all the recent speculation about his position as Leader?

    Twitter
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    Asfordby (Melton): Conservative GAIN from Labour.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    UKIP gain SDP seat:
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Bridlington Central & Old Town (East Yorkshire):
    UKIP GAIN from SDP.

    Not a headline you'll often see.
    33 years ago yesterday we were doing a victory tour with Shirley Williams MP.

    Can't believe it's 33 years...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    fitalass said:

    Interesting to note that the Labour guest on BBC Question Time tonight is Chuka Umunna, especially as it was Andy Burnham who appeared last week. I wonder if Yvette Cooper is now being lined up to appear on the programme next week? If so, I find it hard to believe that Ed Miliband and his team would have sanctioned the main contenders to succeed him having a dry run in a future Leadership contest to replace him after all the recent speculation about his position as Leader?

    Twitter
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    Asfordby (Melton): Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    When you say

    "I wonder if Yvette Cooper is now being lined up to appear on the programme next week?"

    Does that mean you watched the programme and heard Dimbleby say that Yvette Cooper is on the show next week?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Socrates said:

    chestnut said:

    Socrates said:

    Also, more than 85% of EU immigrants won't even be affected. You stay here long enough - is it even a year you have to wait? - and you'll still get the benefits.

    It is children that need school places - not single males.
    It is families that most receive tax credits and child benefits - not single males.
    It is women that most use the NHS - not single males.
    I don't even know what point you're trying to make.
    Then you are being obtuse. He is pointing out that single males who come here as working migrants are likely to be infrequent uses of the health education and benefits system. The general view in some quarters that they are spongers is not viable.

    It would of course be good politics to make that both clear and even less possible.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    From The Guardian

    "Young men from eastern Europe often live four or five to a room, and work impossibly long hours; with echoes of Europe’s macroeconomic asymmetries, the local labour market is divided between insufficient jobs that be can be done by people with families and mortgages, and a surfeit of opportunities for those who will work whenever they are required for a relative pittance."

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/22/wisbech-immigration-politicians-david-cameron-ukip-eu-exit

    Thanks for that.

    What about those with families?

    You know...the ones that get tax credits.


    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children/tax-credits-entitlement-tables-working-and-have-no-children#you-are-single-or-have-a-partner-and-the-person-who-works-has-a-disability
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tonight's YouGov represents a 20 point drop in support for the three established parties compared to 2010.

    ENP 4.3
    OK so that's Labour, the Tories, UKIP, the 0.3 is the SNP, but who's the fourth?
    Will it be Green or LD?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    CON win in Howdenshire:
    CON 1020
    UKIP 891
    LAB 298

    Lol!

    Vote Ed, get Dave?

    Edit: Seriously, that's Humberside, no? Fertile territory for Kippers, no?

    Hmmmmm........
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    That's it from me goodnight.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Vote Tory and get a Tory called Dave. :)

    Speedy said:

    CON win in Howdenshire:
    CON 1020
    UKIP 891
    LAB 298

    Lol!

    Vote Ed, get Dave?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tonight's YouGov represents a 20 point drop in support for the three established parties compared to 2010.

    ENP 4.3
    OK so that's Labour, the Tories, UKIP, the 0.3 is the SNP, but who's the fourth?
    Will it be Green or LD?
    It's a continuous measure, 1/SUM(vote%i^2) i=1...N
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Paging Tim B

    Happy Thanksgiving...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Did Ashcroft poll Camerons seat too?

    I wonder what the UKIP % was?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited November 2014
    @Isam, no, I saw the line up tonight but was in the end unable to watch the programme when it aired. On top of that, I actually had this post written and I was just about to post it when I was called away by a phone call involving a relative who was concerned about my current health. I have only just now come back online, and I then immediately posted that waiting comment from well over two hours ago. Having said that, the fact that I had already highlighted Andy Burnham's appearance last week, and then that of Chuka Umunna this week would suggest my point still stands without the need to question my prediction that Yvette Cooper was going to be the most likely Labour guest to be on the show next week.

    I have to say this, one of the most annoying and unpleasant aspects of your presence on this site is the way you constantly act like some kind of unofficial prefect who doesn't get it when posters are genuinely in disagreement with your Ukip/Immigration/Enoch love in. And its a presence whereby you always assume the worst of other posters who criticise UKIP, and also while expecting us to hold your integrity in a much higher regard simple because you act like a dog who cannot let go of a bone. Your need to have the last word in every argument, even if it means you have manage to hound another poster off this site is negative enough, but the lack of empathy and the smug lap of honour embark on says more about you than it does about your opponents.

    Best of it was, I just posted that delayed comment without even getting a chance to glance at this thread.
    isam said:

    fitalass said:

    Interesting to note that the Labour guest on BBC Question Time tonight is Chuka Umunna, especially as it was Andy Burnham who appeared last week. I wonder if Yvette Cooper is now being lined up to appear on the programme next week? If so, I find it hard to believe that Ed Miliband and his team would have sanctioned the main contenders to succeed him having a dry run in a future Leadership contest to replace him after all the recent speculation about his position as Leader?

    Twitter
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    Asfordby (Melton): Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    When you say

    "I wonder if Yvette Cooper is now being lined up to appear on the programme next week?"

    Does that mean you watched the programme and heard Dimbleby say that Yvette Cooper is on the show next week?
  • Aberdeenshire Huntingdonshire and Midlothian are still to come out presumably. Orkney only has Independent candidates standing so it's not realy worth bothering with.

    And no. Apparently Ashcroft didn't poll Cameron's seat for some reason. Probably because he had the largest Tory majority in the country in 2010.
  • Anyone know if St. Neots in Huntingdon was a Thursday or Friday Count?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    ZenPagan said:

    chestnut said:

    Socrates said:

    Of course they'll be able to afford rent and food. They live eight to a flat and eat the cheap stuff from Polish supermarkets. They'll just earn four times what they get back home rather than six times. And the difference is even smaller once you include the in-kind benefits in health and education.

    No 10 floated a strong option and a weak option. They're now going for an option weaker than the weak one. Because Angela Merkel said so. The British aren't allowed to decide for themselves.

    Tax Credits are largely paid to FAMILIES.

    Not single people.

    You think that many poles are single people without families. Come walk around slough and listen to the polish talking mothers and fathers taking their children to school in the morning. According to the census 1 in 10 of slough are poles. Less than 1 in 10 of the parents I see as I go to work are poles.

    The polish are damn hard working people that put many of our own to shame. Pretending however that all or even the majority of poles are single people who have no claim on tax credits or taking places in schools is disingenuous at best.

    The fact of the matter is for the average briton you do not become a tax contributor on average till you earn around 36k. It is suggested this figure is much lower on eu immigrants because they come here single, stay single and return to their homeland after a few years.

    This may be true but I would like to see some study to back this up because from what I am seeing in slough the poles are coming in single, finding mates and raising children here and not going back home.

    This by the way something I see anything wrong with personally but if we are to have a grown up discussion we need hard facts. Maybe the points system could be a net contributor needs to earn on average 36K

    Therefore we will accept all people of all nationalites who earn £X * percentage chance of being a full time immigrant for the nationality that gives a figure that is a positive.

    For example if a pole is 60% long term likely to settle they would need to earn

    36000 * 0.60 or 21600 to get a permission to reside.

    This to me seems the fair way of doing it if each nationality was assessed for their long term inclination to settle and we keep the benefits system as it is.

    I live in Wiltshire

    The local council have started putting up signs in Polish. We already have trains running through the station with destinations in Welsh on the front.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    new thread :)
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I wonder why there was no SDP candidate in Bridlington
This discussion has been closed.