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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : November 27th 2014

(puffing) My word, (panting) and Hercules thought he had a tough time with his twelve labours. He ought to try local by-elections on for size. Finding the wards that had by-elections this week was a doddle, but my goodness, finding the results last time and the candidates standing for election, wooh!. It can really take it out on a person let me tell you.

Read the full story here

AndyJS

Thanks again Harry.

Itajai

Unusually for London, is Hillingdon an area that is trending Conservative? They didn't hold it in the late 80s. They only had a 1 seat majority in 1990 when they retook it.

From the votes quoted this ward seems a mixed ward with the Tories winning one seat?

Tapestry

Orange squash? So you like aspartame and brain tumours.

Pong

Tapestry said:

Orange squash? So you like aspartame and brain tumours.

lol

Ninoinoz

The highlighting in the Hillingdon result is wrong. The Tories must have won at least one seat.

The houses are quite big I noticed when I was in the area and two major roads pass through the ward.

Baskerville

May I just say a huge thank you to Harry for compiling this each week.
We read a lot of runes on this site, but Harry helps us by delivering real results in real elections which we can use for all sorts of calculations. e.g. 2+2=EWNBPM

AndyJS

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

Cookie

Good work Harry. Several observations:
1) A Social Democrat?!

2) SNP clearly not strong in that part of Orkney (or in Orkney at all). Why is this, I wonder? It never struck me as at all ambiguous in its Scottishness (in a way that Shetland is, a bit). Though I have never been there and do not have as much of a feel for the place as I'd like.

3) Ashfordby on Melton: I think that was the location of the superpit - the last and deepest mine in Leicestershire, active until the 90s at least. Another potentially interesting little snapshot of changing political tastes.

Blueberry

Some heavy weights on Question Time tonight: Gove, Umunna and Baker, plus Plattel and the super-obese, mega-unfunny Jo Brand who brings zero insight and takes up two seats that could have been used for kippers. Romford too. Ridiculous there's no kippers.

HenryGManson

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

SandyRentool

At work, I received a mailshot advertising a forthcoming conference. On the front, a photo of the keynote speaker - Priti Patel. Talk about targeted advertising!

Pong

Kinda sad that this crap still finds its way into lessons, but credit to the school for putting their hands up and admitting they got it wrong;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30222550

AndyJS

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

Although on the other hand this was one of the four areas to vote YES in the Indy Referendum. Labour may be doing much better by comparison in areas which voted NO heavily like Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

isam

Spurs fans making pricks of themselves again I see

isam

Blueberry said:

Some heavy weights on Question Time tonight: Gove, Umunna and Baker, plus Plattel and the super-obese, mega-unfunny Jo Brand who brings zero insight and takes up two seats that could have been used for kippers. Romford too. Ridiculous there's no kippers.

I was available

SandyRentool

Question Time in Romford - I always thought it was going to the dogs.

(I'll get my coat)

isam

isam said:

Blueberry said:

Some heavy weights on Question Time tonight: Gove, Umunna and Baker, plus Plattel and the super-obese, mega-unfunny Jo Brand who brings zero insight and takes up two seats that could have been used for kippers. Romford too. Ridiculous there's no kippers.

I was available

But yeah quite amazing that no kipper on the panel... Romford, and Hornchurch & Upminster are the best chances for UKIP in London. My guess is a UKIP friendly audience

Fat_Steve

Good work Henry and thank you.
I'm interested in the "Social Democrat defence" in the first seat. Is that the surviving rump of the old SDP ? Haven't heard from them for a while.

peter_from_putney

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

This market has been suspended - evidence of the power of PB.com and indeed of HenryG!

Charles

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Blueberry

You'd have been good. I just can't understand the obsession with having comedians on the programme. Why not have gardeners? What does Monty Don think about jihadis returning from Syria? Alan Titchmarsh, is the NHS safe in Tory hand? And what about weather forecasters and travel reporters. There's a wealth of opinion we're not hearing.

AlastairMeeks

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

That's a great tip. I'm on. That poll would have to be very wrong indeed for the SNP at 5/4 not to be a good bet.

peter_from_putney

isam said:

isam said:

Blueberry said:

Some heavy weights on Question Time tonight: Gove, Umunna and Baker, plus Plattel and the super-obese, mega-unfunny Jo Brand who brings zero insight and takes up two seats that could have been used for kippers. Romford too. Ridiculous there's no kippers.

I was available

But yeah quite amazing that no kipper on the panel... Romford, and Hornchurch & Upminster are the best chances for UKIP in London. My guess is a UKIP friendly audience

But we're always assured by the BBC that a representative, balanced audience is selected.

Ha-ha, ha-ha, ha-ha!!!

ROFL.

Ninoinoz

The thing to note about UKIP results in the London locals is that they very often only put up one candidate in each ward.

So, expect the Labour and Conservative percentages to be a lot lower in the Hillingdon result tonight.

Richard_Tyndall

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

Bloody stupid and I would not even accept an excuse of ignorance (if one could be claimed).

Whomever dreamt this up deserves the sack.

philiph

Blueberry said:

You'd have been good. I just can't understand the obsession with having comedians on the programme. Why not have gardeners? What does Monty Don think about jihadis returning from Syria? Alan Titchmarsh, is the NHS safe in Tory hand? And what about weather forecasters and travel reporters. There's a wealth of opinion we're not hearing.

I think Monty Don had done QT once.

Comedians seem to have a niche as the show biz representatives on political shows, I assume because comedy can be the most political form of show biz.

isam

Blueberry said:

You'd have been good. I just can't understand the obsession with having comedians on the programme. Why not have gardeners? What does Monty Don think about jihadis returning from Syria? Alan Titchmarsh, is the NHS safe in Tory hand? And what about weather forecasters and travel reporters. There's a wealth of opinion we're not hearing.

Thanks!

The UKIP candidate for Romford is Gerard Batten MEP, who has been on tv quite a lot, so its not as though they don't have a relatively high profile person to appear

Scrapheap_as_was

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

Blueberry

philiph said:

Blueberry said:

You'd have been good. I just can't understand the obsession with having comedians on the programme. Why not have gardeners? What does Monty Don think about jihadis returning from Syria? Alan Titchmarsh, is the NHS safe in Tory hand? And what about weather forecasters and travel reporters. There's a wealth of opinion we're not hearing.

I think Monty Don had done QT once.

Comedians seem to have a niche as the show biz representatives on political shows, I assume because comedy can be the most political form of show biz.

Ah, interesting re Monty Don. I guess he knows his onions.

It's a shame all today's comedians are left-wing. Not like the old days when Bernard Manning and Jim Bowen were on the show every other week. Poor Robin Day just couldn't keep the smile off his face.

foxinsoxuk

Cookie said:

Good work Harry. Several observations:
1) A Social Democrat?!

2) SNP clearly not strong in that part of Orkney (or in Orkney at all). Why is this, I wonder? It never struck me as at all ambiguous in its Scottishness (in a way that Shetland is, a bit). Though I have never been there and do not have as much of a feel for the place as I'd like.

3) Ashfordby on Melton: I think that was the location of the superpit - the last and deepest mine in Leicestershire, active until the 90s at least. Another potentially interesting little snapshot of changing political tastes.

Asfordby mine has been closed for a while. It was never as productive as expected as there were geological issues. A lot of the miners relocated there from other coalfields in the NE as other pits closed, so it is not a typical part of East Leics.

Speedy

antifrank said:

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

That's a great tip. I'm on. That poll would have to be very wrong indeed for the SNP at 5/4 not to be a good bet.

Warning, it's not a constituency poll of Durbartonshire West, it's the survation poll from scotland:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-bombshell-ed-milliband-shows-4646014

isam

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Well this is from the same article, so they did apologise

"Bradley Monk, UKIP's parliamentary candidate in South East Cornwall, said: "It definitely wasn't our intention to cause any offence and we are sorry if we have caused offence.

"The issue we wanted to highlight was the plight of fishing communities in Cornwall and Devon."

But I think they should withdraw it and no doubt they will

Speedy

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

It's not a Durbartonshire West poll, that is the Survation poll from 10 days ago for the whole of scotland.

RobD

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

The words traitorous and pigdog come to mind

Speedy

peter_from_putney said:

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

This market has been suspended - evidence of the power of PB.com and indeed of HenryG!

I hope you didn't take the bait on the misleading post of HenryG

isam

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

Fans at the game more embarassing than team performance?

foxinsoxuk

isam said:

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Well this is from the same article, so they did apologise

"Bradley Monk, UKIP's parliamentary candidate in South East Cornwall, said: "It definitely wasn't our intention to cause any offence and we are sorry if we have caused offence.

"The issue we wanted to highlight was the plight of fishing communities in Cornwall and Devon."

But I think they should withdraw it and no doubt they will

I suspect that this Tory MP knows rather more about the fishing industry than average.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

Have Spurs got Liverpool's defence doing the stewarding?

Could have been worse, there was an article that basically said Ed Miliband = Brendan Rodgers and Labour/Liverpool would be crazy to ditch them both.

Scrapheap_as_was

Naughton is the pits of the earth. TPD signing off

TheScreamingEagles

Speedy said:

peter_from_putney said:

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

This market has been suspended - evidence of the power of PB.com and indeed of HenryG!

I hope you didn't take the bait on the misleading post of HenryG

Henry G Manson is one of the great tipsters in the history of PB

bigjohnowls

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Charles

isam said:

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Well this is from the same article, so they did apologise

"Bradley Monk, UKIP's parliamentary candidate in South East Cornwall, said: "It definitely wasn't our intention to cause any offence and we are sorry if we have caused offence.

"The issue we wanted to highlight was the plight of fishing communities in Cornwall and Devon."

But I think they should withdraw it and no doubt they will

I know. But somehow "I'm sorry it upsets you, but I'm going to carry on doing it" lacks sincerity

nigel4england

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

What have they done now, I thought they were winning

Sunil_Prasannan

Fat_Steve said:

Good work Henry and thank you.
I'm interested in the "Social Democrat defence" in the first seat. Is that the surviving rump of the old SDP ? Haven't heard from them for a while.

HI Steve, nice meeting you again last week.

Must be this party here. Rump of the old one, since 1990.

TheScreamingEagles

nigel4england said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

What have they done now, I thought they were winning

Three separate pitch invasions in the first half, ref halted the match for a bit.

Looks like it is a publicity stunt.

Danny565

We need a market on who will be the 3rd-biggest party in the Commons next year: SNP, UKIP or Lib Dems.

Floater

Tapestry said:

Orange squash? So you like aspartame and brain tumours.

not a lot of joy in your life eh tap :-)

Pong

Danny565 said:

We need a market on who will be the 3rd-biggest party in the Commons next year: SNP, UKIP or Lib Dems.

I'll offer you 3/1 on UKIP if you want?

Max £50

nigel4england

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

What have they done now, I thought they were winning

Three separate pitch invasions in the first half, ref halted the match for a bit.

Looks like it is a publicity stunt.

Were the pitch invasions Spurs fans, not watching it

nigel4england

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Says a Labour supporter

TheScreamingEagles

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

What have they done now, I thought they were winning

Three separate pitch invasions in the first half, ref halted the match for a bit.

Looks like it is a publicity stunt.

Were the pitch invasions Spurs fans, not watching it

Not sure, from what I've read on twitter it is people from the Spurs end but not necessarily Spurs fans

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2014-11-27/tottenham-match-halted-after-three-pitch-invasions/

Floater

SandyRentool said:

Question Time in Romford - I always thought it was going to the dogs.

(I'll get my coat)

Ah Romford dogs - good times.

bigjohnowls

nigel4england said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Says a Labour supporter

Net immigration higher than at GE2010

No ifs no buts

surbiton

Super Thursday !

nigel4england

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Spurs = shitest shite of the shitest order

The embarrassing little club who thinks were still a big club

I'm close to defection

What have they done now, I thought they were winning

Three separate pitch invasions in the first half, ref halted the match for a bit.

Looks like it is a publicity stunt.

Were the pitch invasions Spurs fans, not watching it

Not sure, from what I've read on twitter it is people from the Spurs end but not necessarily Spurs fans

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2014-11-27/tottenham-match-halted-after-three-pitch-invasions/

The away fans are housed in the corner of the Park Lane, very much doubt they were Spurs fans

nigel4england

bigjohnowls said:

nigel4england said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Says a Labour supporter

Net immigration higher than at GE2010

No ifs no buts

What with that and the cast iron guarantee they wonder why we don't trust him on the referendum

bigjohnowls

Net immigration still in 10s of thousands

26*

Ninoinoz

Re: UKIP 'Mosque' Tweet.

I strolled past Westminster Cathedral about a month ago and there were flagpoles outside, one displaying the Vatican City flag.

None of the news reports displaying a picture of the Cathedral shows that.

Curious, especially after events in Strood.

Mark Reckless was married there, incidentally.

AndyJS

I just lost £20 betting on the Italian women's football team vs Netherlands. Never again.

bigjohnowls

surbiton said:

Super Thursday !

Black Friday?

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

peter_from_putney said:

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

This market has been suspended - evidence of the power of PB.com and indeed of HenryG!

I hope you didn't take the bait on the misleading post of HenryG

Henry G Manson is one of the great tipsters in the history of PB

On this case he did a mistake sighting a constituency poll which didn't exist.

isam

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Well this is from the same article, so they did apologise

"Bradley Monk, UKIP's parliamentary candidate in South East Cornwall, said: "It definitely wasn't our intention to cause any offence and we are sorry if we have caused offence.

"The issue we wanted to highlight was the plight of fishing communities in Cornwall and Devon."

But I think they should withdraw it and no doubt they will

I know. But somehow "I'm sorry it upsets you, but I'm going to carry on doing it" lacks sincerity

Yes I am not disagreeing, its not something I would do myself.

But I am nothing to do with what any other UKIP member or supporter says or does

Speedy

Danny565 said:

We need a market on who will be the 3rd-biggest party in the Commons next year: SNP, UKIP or Lib Dems.

Quite difficult for UKIP to be 3rd party, the barrier is 30 MP's in order to certainly have more than the LD's, the SNP could do it if they don't fade by election day (big if).

Stuart_Dickson

- "Troup on Aberdeenshire (Con Defence)"

Troup is in the Banff & Buchan constituency.

Banff & Buchan - Result 2010

SNP (Eilidh Whiteford MP) 15,868
Con 11,841
Lab 5,382
LD 4,365
BNP 1,010

Banff & Buchan - Ladbrokes

SNP 1/100
Lab 20/1
Con 20/1
100 bar

Floater

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

Stuart_Dickson

- "Midlothian East on Midlothian (Ind Defence from Lab defection)"

Midlothian - Result 2010

Lab (David Hamilton MP) 18,449
SNP 8,100
LD 6,711
Con 4,661
Grn 595
UKIP 364
Ind 196
TUSC 166

Midlothian - Ladbrokes

Lab 2/5
SNP 7/4
100 bar

Speedy

AndyJS said:

I just lost £20 betting on the Italian women's football team vs Netherlands. Never again.

You would have better luck betting on the Norwegian third division football matches.
I always avoid betting on obscure matches involving teams that I hadn't got a clue about.

Pong

Speedy said:

Danny565 said:

We need a market on who will be the 3rd-biggest party in the Commons next year: SNP, UKIP or Lib Dems.

Quite difficult for UKIP to be 3rd party, the barrier is 30 MP's in order to certainly have more than the LD's, the SNP could do it if they don't fade by election day (big if).

It's an interesting bet though - very interesting.

Is the betfair market trader lurking?....

Allowing myself a little overround, I'd probably price it up;

LD 4/6
SNP 5/4
UKIP 4/1

RodCrosby

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Why should they apologise for unintentional offence?

Tragic though this death [3 years ago...] was, the MP represents a fishing community, and at election time, it's not unreasonable to expect literature to feature fishing boats, and perhaps even nets! The world doesn't stop turning just for one man's death.

The MP is being childish and unreasonable, and should STFU, and get on with her grief, hopefully reaching closure eventually. Why she felt the need to make political hay with this is beyond me...

bigjohnowls

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

No benefits for 2 years.

Cant restrict immigration whilst in EU

Its called global capitalism I think

isam

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

No benefits for 2 years.

Cant restrict immigration whilst in EU

Its called global capitalism I think

Arbitrarily restricting benefits to certain people is hardly the sign of a cohesive society

Especially not when we are all meant to be one big community

isam

Pong said:

Speedy said:

Danny565 said:

We need a market on who will be the 3rd-biggest party in the Commons next year: SNP, UKIP or Lib Dems.

Quite difficult for UKIP to be 3rd party, the barrier is 30 MP's in order to certainly have more than the LD's, the SNP could do it if they don't fade by election day (big if).

It's an interesting bet though - very interesting.

Is the betfair market trader lurking?....

Allowing myself a little overround, I'd probably price it up;

LD 4/6
SNP 5/4
UKIP 4/1

Life on the edge!

EDIT Thought that said 6/4

TheScreamingEagles

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

peter_from_putney said:

HenryGManson said:

O/T Betting post

Dunbartonshire West poll has SNP on 46% and Labour on 24%. SNP look a bargain at 5/4 with Ladbrokes to pick up this seat in just over 5 months. http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/
https://m.oddschecker.com/t#politics-british-politics-dunbartonshire-west-winning-party

It's a sign of how big a hole Labour is in Scotland that a 17,400 majority doesn't guarantee safety.

This market has been suspended - evidence of the power of PB.com and indeed of HenryG!

I hope you didn't take the bait on the misleading post of HenryG

Henry G Manson is one of the great tipsters in the history of PB

On this case he did a mistake sighting a constituency poll which didn't exist.

Ok, very naughty of the newspaper to misrepresent that poll

Stuart_Dickson

- "Kirkwall West and Orphir on Orkney (Ind Defence)"

Orkney & Shetland - Result 2010

LD (Alistair Carmichael MP) 11,989
Lab 2,061
SNP 2,042
Con 2,032
UKIP 1,222

Orkney & Shetland - Ladbrokes

LD 1/20
SNP 5/1
100 bar

Floater

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

No benefits for 2 years.

Cant restrict immigration whilst in EU

Its called global capitalism I think

It takes some special front to try and make capital out of immigration if you are a Labour supporter.

I mean your party spent most of it's last period in office crying racist if anyone so much as mentioned it.

foxinsoxuk

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

To cut net non EU immigration to say 10 000 would require either mass emmigration or draconian measures:

Ending of of all non EU student visas, including postgrads

Ending of inward migration of spouses.

Ending of asylum applications with all current asylum seekers to be deported.

Ending of skilled immigration of skilled personnel such as Doctors and Nurses from Asia.

Is this a rough approximation of UKIP policy? Or is UKIP not going to be able to do much either?

HenryGManson

Crap. Thought it was a constituency poll from the way it was worded:

'The bombshell revelation is all the more startling given that the Labour politician had a majority of over 17,400 at the last general election in 2010.'

http://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/roundup/articles/2014/11/26/517153-poll-predicts-labour-gemma-doyle-mp-will-lose-seat/#sthash.HeftXmO1.dpuf

She may still lose the seat and is vulnerable, but I clearly misunderstood the article from the way it was written and it's not the value I had thought.

TheScreamingEagles

Sun Front Page - Right Said Pleb

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3et4qFCYAA1lES.jpg

TheScreamingEagles

Though I expect the Telegraph front page will have the longer political ramification

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3etfOdCIAAuY0c.jpg

bigjohnowls

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

No benefits for 2 years.

Cant restrict immigration whilst in EU

Its called global capitalism I think

It takes some special front to try and make capital out of immigration if you are a Labour supporter.

I mean your party spent most of it's last period in office crying racist if anyone so much as mentioned it.

Well immigration is now higher than at GE2015

Despite the no ifs no buts bluster.

Dave lied in 2010 on the biggest 2 issues at GE2015

No top down reorganisation of NHS and tens of thousands Net immigration.

How can voters fall for a Dave cast iron guarantee on anything?

Pong

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Front Page - Right Said Pleb

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3et4qFCYAA1lES.jpg

That's a great front page!

TheScreamingEagles

David Cameron to tell EU: cut all tax credits to migrants

Prime minister to announce that EU membership is dependent on measure affecting more than 300,000 EU migrants in UK

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/27/david-cameron-european-union-immigration

Floater

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

To cut net non EU immigration to say 10 000 would require either mass emmigration or draconian measures:

Ending of of all non EU student visas, including postgrads

Ending of inward migration of spouses.

Ending of asylum applications with all current asylum seekers to be deported.

Ending of skilled immigration of skilled personnel such as Doctors and Nurses from Asia.

Is this a rough approximation of UKIP policy? Or is UKIP not going to be able to do much either?

I have no idea of what UKIP plans are.

I was just offended by the hypocrisy we were being treated to be Big John.

Luckyguy1983

FPT

Socrates said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Socrates said:

Speedy said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Speedy said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.

Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....

With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand.
I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers.
In short, sell BP and buy GM.

Is Putin bankrupt yet?

As long as the Rouble drops by more that the oil price he'll be fine, as he'll get more Roubles per barrel.

Except a weaker Roubel will mean less can be purchased from abroad, and fewer investors will be willing to buy Russian debt.

The rouble has declined by about 40% over the past 12 months. That is surely destabilising for the economy as a whole?

Not just the economy, but society. Lavrov has started complaining about the Americans being behind a potential colour revolution in the country. They're clearly rattled and are trying to take pre-emptive steps to blame evil America.

Except it's not Russia that is descending into race war is it?

As for America's destabilisation of unfriendly regimes, it is a matter of public record. For example, their funding of the Occupy movement in Hong Kong: http://nsnbc.me/2014/11/04/neo-cons-corporate-fascists-hong-kong-democracy/

I think you need to look past the fact you have relatives in the US -the American state is no more their friend than it is ours.

kle4

Busy by-election night I see. People trying to get them in before the holidays I presume?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Front Page - Right Said Pleb

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3et4qFCYAA1lES.jpg

Clever.

It'd be nice to see a footnote under the main headline reading *

*though that's the least important part of that whole affair.

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Front Page - Right Said Pleb

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3et4qFCYAA1lES.jpg

Say what you like about that paper but some of the headlines are just classic.

Luckyguy1983

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

How do you withdraw a newspaper?

bigjohnowls

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

To cut net non EU immigration to say 10 000 would require either mass emmigration or draconian measures:

Ending of of all non EU student visas, including postgrads

Ending of inward migration of spouses.

Ending of asylum applications with all current asylum seekers to be deported.

Ending of skilled immigration of skilled personnel such as Doctors and Nurses from Asia.

Is this a rough approximation of UKIP policy? Or is UKIP not going to be able to do much either?

I have no idea of what UKIP plans are.

I was just offended by the hypocrisy we were being treated to be Big John.

Hypocrisy is when you make cast iron promises you have no intention of keeping

Like on the NHS and immigration

and pretend about other things such as VAT hike

Dave is Billy Liar

foxinsoxuk

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

To cut net non EU immigration to say 10 000 would require either mass emmigration or draconian measures:

Ending of of all non EU student visas, including postgrads

Ending of inward migration of spouses.

Ending of asylum applications with all current asylum seekers to be deported.

Ending of skilled immigration of skilled personnel such as Doctors and Nurses from Asia.

Is this a rough approximation of UKIP policy? Or is UKIP not going to be able to do much either?

I have no idea of what UKIP plans are.

I was just offended by the hypocrisy we were being treated to be Big John.

I think that Cameron was foolish to promise something undeliverable, but also wondering what UKIP would do to cut non EU immigration. We know that it will be a points system, but what would get points?

Charles

Ninoinoz said:

Re: UKIP 'Mosque' Tweet.

I strolled past Westminster Cathedral about a month ago and there were flagpoles outside, one displaying the Vatican City flag.

None of the news reports displaying a picture of the Cathedral shows that.

Curious, especially after events in Strood.

Mark Reckless was married there, incidentally.

I'd imagine there's a stock photo on file that they used rather than sending a snapper down Artillery Row.

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Well this is from the same article, so they did apologise

"Bradley Monk, UKIP's parliamentary candidate in South East Cornwall, said: "It definitely wasn't our intention to cause any offence and we are sorry if we have caused offence.

"The issue we wanted to highlight was the plight of fishing communities in Cornwall and Devon."

But I think they should withdraw it and no doubt they will

I suspect that this Tory MP knows rather more about the fishing industry than average.

I also find it frankly unbelievable that a Parliamentary candidate in the same constituency would not have known that the sitting MP had lost her husband in this way. Like I said before this is a case where ignorance is really no defence. They should have known better and the fact that they didn't and even try to make a point off the back of a supposed apology just makes matters worse.

Charles

RodCrosby said:

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

Why should they apologise for unintentional offence?

Tragic though this death [3 years ago...] was, the MP represents a fishing community, and at election time, it's not unreasonable to expect literature to feature fishing boats, and perhaps even nets! The world doesn't stop turning just for one man's death.

The MP is being childish and unreasonable, and should STFU, and get on with her grief, hopefully reaching closure eventually. Why she felt the need to make political hay with this is beyond me...

Because we are social animals and, as a general rule, try to avoid causing unnecessary offence.

Floater

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

No benefits for 2 years.

Cant restrict immigration whilst in EU

Its called global capitalism I think

It takes some special front to try and make capital out of immigration if you are a Labour supporter.

I mean your party spent most of it's last period in office crying racist if anyone so much as mentioned it.

Well immigration is now higher than at GE2015

Despite the no ifs no buts bluster.

Dave lied in 2010 on the biggest 2 issues at GE2015

No top down reorganisation of NHS and tens of thousands Net immigration.

How can voters fall for a Dave cast iron guarantee on anything?

Thats fair, even fairer is how can we trust any party on anything?

They all lie.

isam

So after years of telling us, and reports only last week that apparently prove, that EU migrants contribute more to the economy than they put in, Cameron's big plan is to stop them claiming in work benefits...

Wont stop anyone earning £1.25 an hour in Eastern Europe coming over, and will create a two tier society, but what the hell?

Out of touch

chestnut

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron to tell EU: cut all tax credits to migrants

Prime minister to announce that EU membership is dependent on measure affecting more than 300,000 EU migrants in UK

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/27/david-cameron-european-union-immigration

Seems like they are finally going in the right direction.

Reform housing benefit and child benefit to include some form or contributory/UK education principle and the job would be close to done.

Flightpath

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

To cut net non EU immigration to say 10 000 would require either mass emmigration or draconian measures:

Ending of of all non EU student visas, including postgrads

Ending of inward migration of spouses.

Ending of asylum applications with all current asylum seekers to be deported.

Ending of skilled immigration of skilled personnel such as Doctors and Nurses from Asia.

Is this a rough approximation of UKIP policy? Or is UKIP not going to be able to do much either?

I have no idea of what UKIP plans are.

I was just offended by the hypocrisy we were being treated to be Big John.

Hypocrisy is when you make cast iron promises you have no intention of keeping

Like on the NHS and immigration

and pretend about other things such as VAT hike

Dave is Billy Liar

You are the liar repeating lies about breaking a cast iron promise which was not broken. There was no promise on the NHS broken. The reforms drive the NHS from below not above. It was about GP commissioning.

Floater

bigjohnowls said:

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

So if you remove EU numbers completely.

Net migration is still 168,000

Tory promise in tatters

Sure is, what will Labour promise?

To cut net non EU immigration to say 10 000 would require either mass emmigration or draconian measures:

Ending of of all non EU student visas, including postgrads

Ending of inward migration of spouses.

Ending of asylum applications with all current asylum seekers to be deported.

Ending of skilled immigration of skilled personnel such as Doctors and Nurses from Asia.

Is this a rough approximation of UKIP policy? Or is UKIP not going to be able to do much either?

I have no idea of what UKIP plans are.

I was just offended by the hypocrisy we were being treated to be Big John.

Hypocrisy is when you make cast iron promises you have no intention of keeping

Like on the NHS and immigration

and pretend about other things such as VAT hike

Dave is Billy Liar

The problem is you are so obviously just a labour sock puppet.

You think Labour have not lied or will never lie again?

Would you like me to remind you of some classics?

chestnut

isam said:

Wont stop anyone earning £1.25 an hour in Eastern Europe coming over, and will create a two tier society, but what the hell?

Out of touch

Where are they going to live? How are they going to be able to cope with the cost of living?

Omnium

Snippet of Ed on BBC news. He seems to be getting worse at appearing likeable rather than better. Really odd that somehow his team aren't changing that.

Scotland settlement seems stupid to me - I want the Scots gone now, even though I think that's a tragedy for the UK - but it's pointless trying to patch up the Union.

Charles

Luckyguy1983 said:

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Ill-judged" would be the generous way to describe this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30030478

"A Conservative MP is demanding a public apology over a UKIP newspaper which she said intentionally referred to her husband's death.
South East Cornwall MP Sheryll Murray's husband Neil, 57, was killed in 2011 when his clothes became caught in a netting winch on his fishing boat.
The UKIP newspaper shows a netting winch saying Ms Murray's "support at home evaporates".
UKIP said it would not withdraw the newspaper and had not meant to offend."

That's extraordinary.

I can understand the mistake happening - probably just someone using a nice photo and no one thought.

But when she complains, why the heck don't you apologise and withdraw the paper. I know there's a cost implication, but people would think that's the decent thing to do.

I mean, fighting a widow who is claiming that you are deliberately bringing up her late husband's death.

Any Kippers want to explain / justify the refusal to withdraw?

How do you withdraw a newspaper?

I'm assuming this is a freebie "newspaper" that gets handed out over a period of time rather than a daily. If so you just pulp whatever you have left in stock.

If they carry on handing it out now they know it cause offence that's just churlish